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Did the Fed just accidentally kick off the next crypto bull run? Or just a dead cat bounce?

Did the Fed just accidentally kick off the next crypto bull run? Or just a dead cat bounce?

On September 18, 2026, global markets rose together. Asian stocks and bonds gained as oil extended its decline. European equities climbed. The STOXX 600 rose 0.9 per cent to 642.6 points. Mining and automotive sectors led those gains. The FTSE index gained 1.2 per cent. That marked its best one-day performance in over two months.

The Bank of England halted sales of long-dated gilts. That decision supported UK assets. The crypto market joined the rally. It rose 0.59 per cent to US$2.62T in 24 hours. The Federal Reserve had raised rates by 25 basis points on September 17, 2026. That was the first hike since 2023. Markets had fully priced in the move. The reaction became a relief rally. Investors focused on the end of the tightening cycle rather than the hike itself. That shift in sentiment lifted nearly every risk asset.

The economic backdrop aided risk assets. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7 per cent to US$101.20 a barrel. Cheaper oil reduces inflationary pressure. US 10-year Treasury yields retreated from recent multi-year highs. Lower yields ease pressure on global equities. They also reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as digital assets and gold. Spot gold remained steady following earlier weekly fluctuations. This combination of cheaper oil and steady bond yields created a helpful climate for digital assets. This macro mix gave traders a reason to add exposure.

The asset class traded as a rates-sensitive instrument on that day. Its correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.43. That is a moderate positive reading. It is lower than the 71 per cent figure that appeared in May of this year. The Bitcoin-gold tie was above 50 per cent at the start of this month. Some short-term gauges reached 0.8. That still shows a meaningful tie, but it is not 79 per cent. These figures indicate a looser connection than some earlier reports suggested. That matters for how investors interpret the advance. It does not mean digital assets ignore macro. It means the link varies with the news cycle. On this occasion, the Fed decision and the oil move mattered more than the usual internal drivers.

Group rotation amplified the market-wide move. The AI Applications category gained 5.83 per cent. The Privacy group rose 3.98 per cent. Independent verification did not directly confirm that exact figure. The broader privacy space has surged 213 per cent since October 2025.

Zcash drove almost all of that rise. Zcash posted a 13 per cent daily advance on September 16. It jumped another 15 per cent on September 17 following the Fed decision. Protocol upgrades and institutional interest fuelled that move. These movements indicate that market appetite extends beyond Bitcoin. Funds are seeking alpha in specialised narratives with strong fundamentals. That broadening of strength across asset classes is a healthy sign. It suggests the advance has a base value greater than one coin.

The near-term path for digital assets hinges on key technical marks. The current market cap sits just above the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at US$2.6T. That mark now acts as support. The immediate trigger for the advance is past. The focus shifts to whether the advance can sustain. A close above the 23.6 per cent Fib threshold at US$2.67T could pave the way for a retest of the yearly high at US$2.73T. Failure to hold US$2.6T risks a pullback toward the US$2.57T to US$2.53T base zone. The 61.8 per cent Fib sits at US$2.57T. A break below that mark could signal a return to range trading.

My point of view is cautiously bullish. The combination of a digested rate increase and strong group rotation points to underlying strength. The market passed its immediate test. It absorbed a rate hike without collapsing. That is a significant signal. I still want to see confirmation.

Bitcoin needs to stabilise. The breadth of smaller coins needs to continue. The advance cannot rely on one group or a single economic event. The Privacy and AI Applications groups show leadership. That is encouraging. They remain relatively small parts of the overall capitalisation. For the advance to challenge US$2.73T, funds need to flow more broadly. I would like to see a weekly close above that pivot before turning more constructive.

I also watch the Ethereum Foundation AMA on September 16 for further sentiment cues. That event could provide insight into developer activity and network upgrades. It may not move prices on its own, but it adds to the narrative mosaic. The digital asset space is increasingly responsive to fundamental developments. That is a maturation story.

The worldwide economic backdrop remains the dominant driver. Cheaper oil and steady bond yields create a supportive climate for speculative assets. The central bank’s increase became a bullish catalyst because markets had already priced it in. The UK central bank’s decision on long-term government bonds added to the calm. Asian equities confirmed the trend. This is a coordinated advance. It is not a digital asset-specific event. That makes it more durable, but also more dependent on economic conditions remaining stable.

If oil continues to decline and yields stay contained, digital assets can test US$2.73T. If oil reverses or yields spike, the US$2.57T floor will come under pressure. The US$2.6T pivot is the line in the sand. Holding above it keeps the positive case alive. Breaking below it shifts the story back to choppy conditions.

In conclusion, the outlook is cautiously bullish momentum. Investors have digested the rate increase. Group rotation is strong. Chart marks are clear. The question now is whether Bitcoin can stabilise and the breadth of smaller coins can continue. Can investors capitalise on this economic clarity to challenge the US$2.73T resistance? I believe they can, but only if the speculative climate remains supportive. The next few sessions will tell us whether this upward move has true staying power or whether it fades into another range phase. I lean toward the former, but I remain watchful.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why did Bitcoin and Ethereum move in near-perfect lockstep after the Fed rate hike?

Why did Bitcoin and Ethereum move in near-perfect lockstep after the Fed rate hike?

Bitcoin rose 0.82 per cent in 24 hours to US$76,318.25. Ethereum gained 0.80 per cent to US$2,418.94. The total crypto market cap increased one per cent, and the broader crypto market rose 0.99 per cent. These numbers point to a single conclusion. A relief bounce tied to the Federal Reserve lifted the entire asset class.

No coin-specific catalyst appeared in the data. The primary force came from the central bank. Bitcoin slightly underperformed that broad rise even as it gained. Ethereum tracked its larger peer almost exactly. This synchronised move indicates that the market is currently driven by macro headlines rather than project-level news.

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16 to a target range of 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent. Market participants had widely anticipated this unanimous decision. The confirmation removed near-term uncertainty. Risk assets responded with a modest rally. The two largest digital assets moved in lockstep with that broader tide.

Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold recently hit a multi-year high. That detail matters. It shows the leading cryptocurrency now trades more like a macro asset than a speculative tech bet. Ethereum remains highly sensitive to central bank cues and Bitcoin’s direction in the short term. The move has less to do with each network’s fundamentals and more with a market-wide sigh of relief.

This is a beta trade, not a fundamental repricing. A priced-in event often produces this kind of reaction. Traders sell the rumour and buy the fact. The fact here was a rate hike that no longer surprised anyone. The market had already absorbed the news before the Fed spoke, so the actual announcement simply cleared the air.

Supporting data in derivatives markets adds nuance. Bitcoin open interest fell 3.1 per cent. Liquidations dropped 65.79 per cent. That decline in forced selling suggests a calmer backdrop. Bitcoin dominance stayed elevated near 58.85 per cent. Capital has not rotated aggressively into riskier altcoins.

Instead, it remains defensive. Ethereum told a slightly different story. Average perpetual funding rates rose 40.74 per cent over 24 hours to +0.0053 per cent. Some derivatives traders leaned cautiously bullish. The absolute rate stayed far from extreme levels. Ethereum also benefited from its place in the Layer 1 narrative, which posted a 0.99 per cent sector gain.

Risk capital is rotating toward large-cap blockchain platforms, but it is doing so selectively. Bitcoin still leads. Ethereum follows. That relationship defines the current market structure. The lack of a leverage washout and the sustained dominance of the largest asset create a stable floor, but they also limit upside momentum. When capital stays defensive, rallies tend to be measured and shallow rather than explosive.

Institutional flows provide the most important test. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$450 million in outflows on September 15. That figure shows hesitation among institutional investors. A return to net inflows would confirm renewed demand. Until then, price stability rests more on reduced selling pressure than on a fresh wave of buying.

Ethereum faces a similar question. The daily ETF flow report will show whether spot Ethereum ETF flows turn positive in the next 24 to 48 hours. Positive flows would confirm a return of institutional interest. Sustained outflows could pressure the support zone. The bounce then looks technical rather than durable.

This flow data matters more than any single derivative metric because it reflects real capital allocation from large investors. Without that capital, the rally depends on short-term traders and macro sentiment. That foundation is thin and can crack quickly if the next data release or policy comment shifts the mood.

Technical levels define the near-term battlefield. Bitcoin trades just above the US$75,000 support level, which has held for weeks. If the largest asset holds above US$75,000, a retest of US$78,189 resistance becomes possible. A break below US$75,000 would shift focus to the next support near US$74,000.

Ethereum consolidates between support at US$2,350-US$2,400 and resistance at US$2,500-US$2,600. Its 4-hour RSI sits at 53.17, a neutral reading. A daily close above US$2,500 would signal a breakout attempt. A break below US$2,350 would risk a deeper correction toward US$2,200.

The market is in a wait-and-see mode. It balances relief from the Fed against lingering regulatory uncertainty from the failed CLARITY Act. That legislative setback removed a potential positive catalyst and left the market without a clear regulatory path forward. Without that path, institutional investors may continue to hesitate, and that hesitation shows up in ETF flows.

In my view, the synchronised price action tells a story of a market where macro forces set the tone but internal dynamism remains weak. The Fed-induced relief rally is welcome. It is also fragile. It is a pause, not a pivot.

The path forward depends on two developments. One is that ETF flows must reverse from negative to positive. That shift would provide fresh institutional demand. The other is that both assets need convincing technical breaks above resistance. Bitcoin must reclaim and hold above US$78,189. Ethereum must close above US$2,500. Without those confirmations, the crypto complex remains vulnerable to the next macro shock or regulatory headline.

The high correlation with gold and Bitcoin’s persistent dominance show that capital seeks the safest harbours within the asset class during uncertainty. Until capital rotates more clearly into Ethereum and beyond, the recovery remains a beta-chasing exercise rather than a genuine broad-based bull market.

The next 24 to 48 hours of ETF flow data will offer the primary real test of whether this relief rally has legs. I would watch the US$75,000 level for Bitcoin and the US$2,350 level for Ethereum as the lines that separate consolidation from correction. I would also watch funding rates for signs of overheating. A sharp reversal there could trigger a squeeze and undermine the calm that currently supports prices. For now, the market has bought itself time, but it has not earned a new trend.

 

Source:
 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

CLARITY Act Dies—Stablecoin Yields Survive

CLARITY Act Dies—Stablecoin Yields Survive

The CLARITY Act died on the Senate floor this week. A procedural vote failed 49 to 50, short of the 60 needed to move forward. Senator Cynthia Lummis, the bill’s most passionate advocate, called it over. For anyone who spent the past year hoping Congress would finally deliver a comprehensive rulebook for digital assets, the result stings.

But here is the thing about Washington. When 1 door slams shut, another often stays cracked open. For stablecoin holders, that crack is wide enough to keep earning yield.

Changpeng Zhao, the former Binance chief, pointed out the silver lining shortly after the vote failed. His take was simple. The technology keeps moving. The yield keeps flowing. If there is any silver lining, stablecoins can continue to have yield, CZ wrote. The CLARITY Act would have added new restrictions on stablecoin rewards. It did not pass. Those restrictions never took effect.

Let me walk through what this means, because the details matter more than the headlines.

The CLARITY Act was a big bill. It aimed to divide oversight of crypto between the SEC and the CFTC. It tackled decentralized finance. It created a circuit breaker mechanism that would have let the Treasury Department restrict stablecoin rewards for up to 18 months if those rewards threatened to pull deposits out of community banks with less than $10 billion in assets. Banking groups loved that provision. Crypto exchanges hated it.

The bill failed. Those proposed limits on platform-level stablecoin rewards vanished with it.

Now, here is the part people often miss. Stablecoins already operate under a separate law called the GENIUS Act, which Congress passed and President Trump signed in July 2025. That law bars stablecoin issuers from paying interest or yield directly to token holders. GENIUS Act Section 4(a)(11) bans stablecoin issuers from paying holders any yield. Circle cannot pay you interest on your USDC. Tether cannot pay you interest on your USDT. That restriction remains in force today.

But the GENIUS Act never restricted platforms. Exchanges, wallets, and other intermediaries can still pay rewards on stablecoin balances they hold for customers. The GENIUS Act permits intermediaries such as exchanges to pass yield from the underlying Treasury reserves to users. DeFi protocols can still generate returns through lending, liquidity provision, and other on-chain activity.

This is not a technicality. It is the core of how stablecoin yield works in practice.

Take Coinbase. The exchange pays USDC holders 3.5% APY on balances held in its app. Coinbase calls this a loyalty reward. The money comes from a revenue-sharing arrangement with Circle, the company that issues USDC. Coinbase does not issue USDC. Circle does. Coinbase pays USDC holders 3.5% APY, calls the payment a loyalty reward, and books the residual under a 50/50 revenue share of reserve income with Circle.

That arrangement sits outside the GENIUS Act’s issuer yield ban. The statute bans issuer-paid yield. It does not ban affiliate-paid yield. Issuer-paid yield was banned. Affiliate-paid yield was not addressed. The reward Coinbase pays sits structurally outside the statute as enacted.

The numbers here are substantial. Coinbase reported $305 million in Q1 2026 stablecoin revenue, the single largest line inside a subscription and services business that now contributes 44% of total revenue. The platform holds more than a quarter of all USDC in circulation, roughly $19 billion in balances inside its products.

DeFi protocols offer another channel. Aave, the largest decentralized lending protocol with approximately $38.6 billion in TVL, pays USDT supply rates typically between 4% and 6% APY. On Aave, USDC supply rates typically track USDT closely at 4% to 6% APY, with Compound offering USDC yields in the 4% to 7% APY range. Morpho Blue adds a premium of 50 to 150 basis points over Aave for equivalent risk. Ethena’s sUSDe has paid between 5% and 15% historically, though those yields fluctuate with market conditions.

These returns come from real economic activity. Borrowers pay interest. Traders pay funding rates. Liquidity providers earn fees. The yield is not a marketing gimmick. It reflects actual demand for capital.

The stablecoin market itself has grown enormously. Total stablecoin market cap reached roughly $316 billion as of June 12, 2026, according to DefiLlama data. That is nearly 12 times the $27 billion recorded at the end of 2020. USDT holds about 59% of supply and USDC about 24%, a combined 83% of the market. Citigroup projects the market could reach $1.9 trillion by 2030. Standard Chartered sees $2 trillion by the end of 2028.

Those projections assume stablecoins keep offering competitive yields. If regulators kill yield entirely, the math changes. The banking industry knows this. That is why the American Bankers Association and 7 other trade groups fought so hard for the CLARITY Act’s yield restrictions. The American Bankers Association and others have urged lawmakers to use the Clarity Act to close a legal loophole that allows digital asset service providers to avoid the existing prohibition on stablecoin interest and yield.

Their argument is straightforward. If stablecoins pay attractive yields, depositors will move money out of traditional bank accounts and into stablecoin platforms. Community banks will lose funding for loans. Small businesses will suffer. The state associations said stablecoins should serve as a payment tool, not a store of value. They warn that such incentives could move deposits away from local lenders.

The crypto industry calls that argument anticompetitive. Banks pay interest on deposits. Why should stablecoin platforms face a different standard?

History offers an interesting parallel. In 1980, the Independent Bankers Association warned that money market funds would drain deposits and weaken lending. A letter submitted by the Independent Bankers Association of America in a 1980 hearing of the Senate Banking Committee on money market funds made arguments almost verbatim from what they argue today: threat to deposits, harms lending, uniquely dangerous for smaller banks. Money market balances grew parabolically into the trillions, and banks remain flush with deposits. Bank deposits did not disappear. By 2022, Federal Reserve data put total bank deposits near $18 trillion.

The CLARITY Act’s failure does not settle this debate. It simply delays it.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has proposed a rule that would treat certain issuer-platform revenue-sharing arrangements as a workaround of the GENIUS Act ban. The notice of proposed rulemaking issued on February 25, 2026 includes a rebuttable presumption that any coordinated arrangement between an issuer and an affiliate or related third party to pay holders yield is itself a prohibited yield arrangement. The comment period closed on May 1, 2026. Banks pushed for an even broader reading. Exchanges pushed back hard.

If the OCC’s reading survives, the Coinbase-Circle rewards structure could face serious challenges. That would hurt Coinbase’s revenue. It would also hurt Circle, which relies on Coinbase as its largest distribution partner. In 2024, Circle paid Coinbase $908 million of its $1.01 billion in total distribution costs. That payment exceeded Circle’s net income. Circle’s net profit was $155 million in 2024.

But as of today, that rule remains a proposal. It has not taken effect. The yield continues.

My point is not that regulation does not matter. It was that technology does not wait for politicians. Stablecoin yield exists because people want it. Borrowers want capital. Lenders want returns. Exchanges want revenue. Users want passive income on their digital assets.

The CLARITY Act would have added a layer of restrictions on top of the GENIUS Act. It failed. That layer never materialized. Platforms can still pay rewards. DeFi protocols can still generate yield. The market keeps functioning.

This is not a permanent state of affairs. Future legislation could change the rules. The OCC could finalize its proposed rule. Enforcement actions could shift the landscape. But for now, the situation is clear. The extra platform-level ban did not become law. Stablecoin yield continues through existing channels.

For anyone holding stablecoins and wondering whether they can still earn a return, the answer is yes. The CLARITY Act failed. Everything continues. And that is worth noting, even if the broader regulatory picture remains frustratingly incomplete.

 

 

 

 

Source: https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/26/09/61816221/clarity-act-dies-stablecoin-yields-survive

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j