Current market dynamics: Equities, FX, commodities, fixed income, and cryptocurrencies

Current market dynamics: Equities, FX, commodities, fixed income, and cryptocurrencies

The interplay of macroeconomic indicators, corporate earnings, currency fluctuations, commodity surges, and cryptocurrency volatility creates a tapestry of opportunity and risk.

My perspective on the topics at hand—US equities under inflation scrutiny, China’s corporate earnings, the Japanese yen’s precarious position, commodity price spikes, rising bond yields, and cryptocurrency corrections—leans toward cautious optimism tempered by a keen awareness of potential headwinds.

Below, I weave together a comprehensive narrative grounded in the latest data, offering insights into how these elements might shape the financial world in the near term.

As exemplified by the S&P 500’s recent performance, the US equity markets are navigating a delicate balance. According to the University of Michigan’s data, the index’s early-week rally was undercut by a dip in consumer sentiment, which hit a six-month low.

This downtick, coupled with a rise in one-year inflation expectations to 3.5 per cent—a semiannual high—signals growing unease among American households. The consumer has been the backbone of US market resilience, driving economic growth despite persistent inflationary pressures. However, the softening confidence metric raises questions about the sustainability of this consumer-led momentum.

The New York Fed’s upcoming report on household debt and credit, due this week, will be a critical piece of the puzzle. Elevated debt levels or signs of credit strain could amplify market jitters, particularly if paired with disappointing earnings from retail giant Walmart, whose results on May 16 will serve as a barometer for consumer spending trends.

Across the Pacific, China’s corporate earnings are commanding attention. The week’s lineup is a who’s-who of tech and manufacturing heavyweights: SoftBank on May 13, followed by Tencent, Alibaba, Hon Hai Precision, and Sony on May 14, with Baidu and JD.com rounding out the slate on May 16. These reports are more than just financial snapshots; they are litmus tests for China’s economic recovery and its ability to navigate global trade tensions.

Recent improvements in US-China trade relations, including a 90-day tariff cut accord, have buoyed traditional markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging nearly 1,000 points. Yet, the implications for Chinese equities are nuanced. Strong earnings from tech giants like Tencent and Alibaba could signal robust domestic demand and technological innovation, bolstering investor confidence.

Conversely, any signs of weakness—whether from supply chain disruptions or regulatory pressures—could dampen sentiment, particularly given the global scrutiny on China’s economic policies.

In the foreign exchange markets, the Japanese yen is once again under the microscope as the USDJPY pair approaches 156. This level is significant, both technically and psychologically, as it tests the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) resolve to defend the yen. The yen’s weakness is partly a function of the US dollar’s strength, driven by expectations of persistent inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve.

The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, slated for May 13, will be pivotal. Forecasts suggest April’s CPI will hold steady at 2.4 per cent, matching March’s figure. A higher-than-expected reading could further strengthen the dollar, pushing USDJPY toward 160 and potentially prompting BoJ intervention.

Conversely, a softer CPI might ease pressure on the yen, offering temporary relief. I believe the yen’s trajectory hinges on the Fed’s signaling. If the CPI data fuels speculation of delayed rate cuts in 2025, the yen could face sustained depreciation, exacerbating Japan’s import costs and inflation challenges.

Commodities, meanwhile, are experiencing a renaissance. Silver’s six per cent surge and natural gas’s five per cent gain last week underscore a broader trend of renewed investor interest in tangible assets. Silver’s rally is particularly noteworthy, driven by industrial demand (notably in solar energy) and its role as a hedge against inflation. Natural gas, on the other hand, is benefiting from supply constraints and heightened geopolitical risks, particularly in energy markets.

These gains align with the broader narrative of inflation expectations, as evidenced by the University of Michigan’s data and the New York Fed’s one-year inflation outlook. Commodities will remain a focal point for investors seeking diversification amid equity market volatility and rising bond yields. However, the sustainability of these rallies depends on global demand dynamics and the trajectory of inflation, both of which remain uncertain.

Speaking of yields, the fixed income market is sending clear signals of inflationary concern. The 10-year US Treasury yield’s breach of 4.5 per cent reflects heightened expectations of persistent price pressures, as captured by the University of Michigan’s inflation survey. This uptick in yields is a double-edged sword: it strengthens the dollar and tightens financial conditions, but it also raises borrowing costs, potentially crimping corporate investment and consumer spending.

For bond investors, the calculus is shifting. The prospect of a Federal Reserve maintaining elevated rates into 2025 suggests that yields could climb further, particularly if CPI data surprises to the upside. My take is that fixed-income markets are at an inflection point. Investors must weigh the allure of higher yields against the risk of capital losses if inflation accelerates beyond current projections.

The cryptocurrency market, meanwhile, is a microcosm of broader market dynamics. Bitcoin’s retreat to US$102,000, down 1.7 per cent in 24 hours, follows a failure to sustain momentum above US$105,000. This correction comes after a 24 per cent rally over the past month, highlighting the crypto’s volatility.

Data from Alphractal points to profit-taking pressure near the US$106,000 resistance zone, with a potential drop to US$100,000 threatening US$3.4 billion in leveraged long positions. The looming CPI release adds another layer of uncertainty. A higher-than-expected inflation reading could bolster the dollar, exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin, while a lower figure might spark speculation of Fed rate cuts, fuelling a crypto rebound.

Bitcoin remains a high-beta asset, amplifying macroeconomic trends. Its divergence from equities, which rallied on US-China trade optimism, underscores its unique risk profile. Investors should approach Bitcoin with caution, mindful of its sensitivity to monetary policy shifts.

Ethereum, by contrast, is riding a wave of bullish sentiment. Its 40 per cent surge last week—its largest since December 2020—is driven by spot buying rather than leverage, as evidenced by a declining estimated leverage ratio (ELR) from 0.75 to 0.69. The influx of over 180,000 ETH into staking protocols signals strong confidence in Ethereum’s long-term value proposition, particularly as a backbone for decentralised finance (DeFi).

However, ETH faces technical resistance at the 200-day simple moving average, with US$2,850 as the next hurdle. Ethereum’s rally is more sustainable than Bitcoin’s, given its lower reliance on speculative leverage and its growing utility in blockchain ecosystems. That said, macroeconomic headwinds, such as a stronger dollar or rising yields, could cap its upside in the near term.

In synthesising these threads, my overarching view is one of cautious navigation. The US equity market’s reliance on consumer strength is under scrutiny, with inflation expectations and household debt levels as key variables. China’s earnings will provide critical insights into global growth prospects, while the yen’s fate hinges on US monetary policy.

Commodities offer a hedge but are not immune to demand shocks, and rising bond yields signal tighter conditions ahead. In the crypto space, Bitcoin and Ethereum reflect broader market tensions, with CPI data as the immediate catalyst.

As a journalist, I see opportunity in this volatility but urge investors to tread carefully, armed with data and a clear-eyed view of the risks. The financial markets are a chessboard, and every move counts.

 

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/current-market-dynamics-equities-fx-commodities-fixed-income-and-cryptocurrencies-20250513/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Is Bitcoin Setting Up For A Rally Given Its Historical Correlation With Gold?

Is Bitcoin Setting Up For A Rally Given Its Historical Correlation With Gold?

Looking at the past decade and a half, two assets have emerged prominently as bastions against the erosion of fiat currency value: gold and Bitcoin. Both assets share fundamental characteristics that define sound money—scarcity, decentralization, and resistance to manipulation. Investors seeking refuge from inflationary pressures and economic instability have increasingly turned to these two distinct yet philosophically aligned assets. Despite their shared appeal, gold and Bitcoin have recently diverged significantly in their short-term performance, prompting investors and analysts alike to question the underlying reasons behind this unexpected split.

Since January 2025, Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline of roughly 12%, while gold has surged impressively by approximately 20%. This divergence is particularly intriguing given Bitcoin’s historical tendency to outperform gold during periods of economic uncertainty. If both assets theoretically benefit from similar macroeconomic conditions—such as inflation, currency debasement, and geopolitical instability—why have their paths diverged so sharply in recent months?

To unravel this puzzle, we must examine the unique market dynamics, institutional behaviors, and macroeconomic factors influencing each asset.

Gold’s Resurgence: Institutional Confidence and Central Bank Accumulation

Gold’s recent rally can largely be attributed to heightened demand from central banks and institutional investors. According to the an article by JP Morgan, central banks globally have significantly increased their gold reserves, purchasing record amounts in recent years. Especially the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has aggressively expanded its gold holdings, signaling a strategic shift away from reliance on the US dollar amid escalating geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties.

Gold’s enduring appeal lies in its historical role as a universally recognized store of value. Its tangible nature provides a sense of security and stability that digital assets cannot yet fully replicate. Institutional investors, particularly those managing large portfolios, find comfort in gold’s established regulatory framework and widespread acceptance. Unlike Bitcoin, gold faces minimal regulatory ambiguity, making it a straightforward choice for conservative investors seeking stability.

Recently, Goldman Sachs revised its gold price forecast upward, projecting prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by year-end. This bullish outlook underscores the growing institutional confidence in gold’s ability to serve as a reliable hedge against inflation and economic volatility.

Bitcoin’s Temporary Setback: Growing Pains and Market Volatility

In contrast, Bitcoin has encountered several headwinds in 2025. Despite its impressive long-term trajectory, Bitcoin remains a relatively young and volatile asset class. Regulatory uncertainty continues to pose significant challenges, deterring many institutional investors from fully embracing cryptocurrency. Additionally, Bitcoin’s price movements are heavily influenced by retail investor sentiment, which can fluctuate dramatically based on short-term market psychology.

The recent decline in Bitcoin’s price can also be attributed to profit-taking following its substantial gains in previous years. After the explosive growth witnessed in 2021 and 2022, a period of consolidation and correction was inevitable. Such volatility is characteristic of emerging asset classes, particularly those undergoing rapid adoption and market maturation.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s fundamental attributes remain robust. Its capped supply of 21 million coins ensures scarcity, while its decentralized blockchain structure provides resistance to censorship and manipulation. Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, often rebounding strongly after periods of correction and consolidation.

Historical Correlation and Divergence: A Temporary Phenomenon?

Historically, gold and Bitcoin have exhibited a fascinating relationship. Analysts such as David Foley and Lawrence Lepard have observed that gold often initiates rallies, with Bitcoin subsequently following and amplifying these movements. This historical pattern suggests that Bitcoin, as a smaller and more volatile asset, typically lags behind gold initially but eventually surpasses it in magnitude during bullish cycles.

Given this historical context, the current divergence between gold and Bitcoin may be temporary. If past patterns hold true, Bitcoin could soon experience a significant rally, potentially surpassing previous highs. This could mean that Bitcoin reaching upwards of $108,000 within months, aligning with its historical behavior during periods of economic uncertainty and rising gold prices.

The broader macroeconomic landscape remains highly favorable for both gold and Bitcoin. Central banks worldwide continue expansive monetary policies, fueling inflationary pressures and eroding fiat currency purchasing power. The US Federal Reserve, in particular, faces challenges balancing inflation control with economic growth, leading to diminished confidence in the dollar’s long-term stability.

In such an environment, assets embodying sound money principles become increasingly attractive. Both gold and Bitcoin offer investors protection against systemic risks associated with excessive debt, currency debasement, and geopolitical instability. As global financial fragility intensifies, diversification into assets outside traditional financial systems becomes not just prudent but essential.

Bitcoin: Digital Gold for a Digital Era

While gold boasts historical credibility and institutional acceptance, Bitcoin represents the evolution of sound money in a digital age. Its digital nature provides unique advantages: borderless transactions, ease of transfer, and immunity from physical confiscation. These attributes resonate strongly with younger generations and populations in countries experiencing currency instability or authoritarian governance.

Bitcoin adoption continues to accelerate globally. Prominent corporations such as Tesla and MicroStrategy have integrated Bitcoin into their balance sheets, while nations like El Salvador have officially recognized it as legal tender. These developments underscore Bitcoin’s growing legitimacy as a global reserve asset.

Moreover, technological advancements within the Bitcoin ecosystem, such as the Lightning Network, enhance its practicality for everyday transactions. The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) further expands Bitcoin’s utility, solidifying its role within the broader financial landscape.

Gold: Timeless Stability Amidst Uncertainty

Despite Bitcoin’s compelling narrative, gold remains an indispensable cornerstone of global finance. Its physical presence and millennia-long history as a store of value provide unmatched trust and stability. Gold’s lower volatility compared to Bitcoin makes it particularly appealing to risk-averse investors and institutions seeking predictable returns.

Historically, gold has consistently outperformed other asset classes during periods of economic turmoil, reinforcing its reputation as a reliable safe haven. This proven track record explains why central banks and institutional investors continue to prioritize gold holdings, especially during uncertain economic climates.

Complementary Roles: Diversification in Sound Money

The divergence between gold and Bitcoin in 2025 highlights their distinct yet complementary roles within a diversified investment portfolio. Rather than viewing these assets as competitors, investors should recognize their unique strengths and limitations. Gold offers stability, institutional acceptance, and historical reliability, while Bitcoin provides growth potential, technological innovation, and adaptability to a digital economy.

In an increasingly uncertain global financial environment, the importance of sound money assets cannot be overstated. Both gold and Bitcoin serve as critical hedges against inflation, currency debasement, and systemic financial risks. Investors seeking comprehensive protection and growth potential would be wise to allocate resources to both assets, leveraging their complementary characteristics.

Conclusion: A Unified Vision for Sound Money

Ultimately, the debate between gold and Bitcoin transcends mere competition. Both assets embody the principles of sound money, offering investors refuge from the vulnerabilities inherent in fiat currency systems. Their recent divergence in performance reflects temporary market dynamics rather than fundamental weaknesses.

As the global financial landscape continues to evolve, the combined strengths of gold and Bitcoin will become increasingly apparent. Together, they represent a powerful dual strategy for navigating economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical instability. Investors who embrace both assets position themselves advantageously for the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century.

In the end, the choice between gold and Bitcoin is not binary but complementary. Each asset offers unique advantages, and together they form a robust foundation for preserving and growing wealth in uncertain times. Whether through the timeless reliability of gold or the transformative potential of Bitcoin, sound money remains an undefeated strategy in an era defined by financial volatility and uncertainty.

 

Source: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/04/44955500/is-bitcoin-setting-up-for-a-rally-given-its-historical-correlation-with-gold

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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How CPI, retail sales, and Powell’s speech could shape Fed policy and market sentiment

How CPI, retail sales, and Powell’s speech could shape Fed policy and market sentiment

As we head into a pivotal week for the US economy and financial markets, a confluence of significant events is poised to shape expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and influence market sentiment in profound ways.

The upcoming release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales data, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday, and ongoing US trade negotiations with China and the UK are all critical pieces of this puzzle.

I’ll analyse how these developments might unfold, their potential economic implications, and how they could sway both the Fed’s monetary policy decisions and the broader market mood. This analysis will weave together the latest economic indicators, policy signals, and geopolitical dynamics to provide a comprehensive view of what’s at stake.

The economic barometers: CPI and retail sales data

The CPI and retail sales figures due this week are among the most important economic releases, serving as key barometers of inflation and consumer spending, two pillars of the Fed’s dual mandate to maintain price stability and maximise employment. These data points will set the tone for how markets and policymakers interpret the health of the US economy.

The Consumer Price Index measures changes in the prices consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, making it a primary indicator of inflation. If this week’s CPI report reveals a higher-than-expected uptick in prices, it would suggest that inflationary pressures remain stubbornly persistent.

This could unnerve the Fed, which has been wary of easing monetary policy prematurely only to see inflation reaccelerate. A hot CPI print might push back expectations for rate cuts, as the central bank would likely prioritise keeping inflation in check over stimulating growth.

Conversely, a softer-than-anticipated CPI reading—indicating that price pressures are easing—could bolster the case for monetary easing, particularly if paired with signs of economic slowdown elsewhere. Investors are already on edge, with bond markets pricing in rate cuts as early as July, per the latest weekly recap, and the 10-year Treasury yield lingering near 4.38 per cent, reflecting uncertainty about the Fed’s next move.

Recent economic reports cited in the recap underscore that inflation has been trending upward in the US, adding complexity to the outlook. This trend aligns with concerns raised by Fed Chair Jerome Powell about the inflationary impact of President Trump’s tariff policies, which I’ll explore further in the trade section. For now, it’s clear that a high CPI number could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, while a lower one might give policymakers room to consider rate cuts sooner.

Retail sales: A window into consumer health

Retail sales data, which tracks consumer spending across various sectors, offers a direct glimpse into the strength of the US consumer—a driving force of economic growth. Robust retail sales would signal that households are still spending freely despite higher prices and borrowing costs, suggesting resilience in the economy.

Such strength could lessen the urgency for rate cuts, as the Fed might see no immediate need to juice up an already healthy consumer base. On the flip side, a disappointing retail sales report—showing consumers tightening their belts—would raise red flags about economic momentum, potentially tilting the Fed toward easing to support growth.

The weekly recap hints at consumer fragility, noting that Americans are beginning to feel the pinch of tariffs as ships carrying tariffed goods arrive. This could dampen spending, especially if paired with rising inflation. Powell has also flagged declining consumer sentiment tied to trade policy uncertainty, which could foreshadow weaker retail sales.

The interplay between these data points will be crucial: strong sales with high inflation might keep the Fed on hold, while weak sales with moderating inflation could pave the way for cuts.

Powell’s speech: Decoding the Fed’s intentions

Following the CPI and retail sales releases, Jerome Powell’s Thursday speech will be a linchpin event, offering markets a chance to parse the Fed’s thinking on monetary policy.

With the Fed holding rates steady for three consecutive meetings and highlighting “elevated risks” to both inflation and unemployment, Powell’s words will carry outsized weight.

Dovish or Hawkish signals?

Powell’s tone will be everything. A dovish slant—where he expresses concern about economic slowdown or signals that inflation is under control—could ignite expectations for rate cuts, lifting equities and easing bond yields. Markets would interpret this as a green light for monetary support, especially if the week’s data leans soft.

However, a hawkish stance—emphasising persistent inflation or the need for sustained tightness—might temper those hopes, suggesting that rates will stay higher for longer. This could pressure stocks, already struggling near technical resistance levels (S&P 500 down 0.5 per cent, Nasdaq off 0.3 per cent, Dow down 0.2 per cent last week), and push yields upward.

Powell’s recent rhetoric offers clues. He’s underscored the Fed’s cautious, data-dependent approach, wary of acting too soon amid trade-driven uncertainties. The recap notes his focus on tariff-related risks, which could simultaneously hike inflation and slow growth—a stagflationary bind that complicates rate decisions.

How is the UK-US trade deal shaping cryptocurrency and stock market trends?

If Powell doubles down on this narrative Thursday, he might signal that the Fed is in a holding pattern, waiting for clearer evidence before pivoting. This wait-and-see posture could leave markets in limbo, amplifying volatility as traders grapple with mixed signals.

Trade talks: Tariffs, supply chains, and economic ripple effects

The US trade negotiations with China and a limited deal with the UK inject another layer of uncertainty into this week’s outlook. These talks could either mitigate or exacerbate pressures on inflation, growth, and market sentiment, depending on their outcomes.

US-China trade dynamics

The US-China trade saga has been a rollercoaster, with tariffs already disrupting supply chains and raising costs. Progress in this week’s talks—say, a rollback of tariffs or a broader agreement—would be a boon, easing inflationary pressures by lowering input costs and boosting business confidence.

This could reduce the need for Fed intervention, supporting growth organically and lifting market sentiment. Stocks might rally, and risk assets like Bitcoin (recently at US$104,077) could see further gains as uncertainty fades.

But the flip side is grim. If talks falter or new tariffs emerge, it would amplify the economic headwinds Powell has flagged. Higher costs would fuel inflation, while disrupted trade could crimp growth—echoing the stagflation fears he’s voiced.

The recap ties this directly to consumer impacts, noting tariffed goods hitting US shores. This scenario might nudge the Fed toward rate cuts to offset a slowdown, though persistent inflation could tie its hands. Markets would likely sour, with equities sliding and safe-haven flows propping up yields or crypto.

UK seal: Limited but symbolic

The limited UK trade deal raises questions about tariff relief and supply chain benefits. While less consequential than a China breakthrough, it could still ease costs for specific sectors, offering a modest tailwind.

However, its impact might be overshadowed by the China talks’ broader stakes. Powell’s focus on trade policy as a whole suggests the Fed will weigh these developments collectively, not in isolation.

Market sentiment: A week of reckoning

Markets are at a crossroads, with stocks pausing near resistance and investors bracing for this week’s catalysts. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow’s recent dips reflect caution, while Bitcoin’s climb past US$100,000 and Ethereum’s rally (up 37.14 per cent last week to US$2,600) hint at risk-on bets amid uncertainty. But sentiment hinges on how these events play out.

Scenarios and reactions

A “Goldilocks” outcome—moderate CPI, solid retail sales, dovish Powell, and trade progress—could spark a rally, with rate cut odds firming up for July and equities breaking resistance. Yields might dip as bonds gain favour, and crypto could ride the wave.

But a stagflationary mix—high CPI, weak sales, hawkish Powell, and trade tensions—might tank stocks, lift yields, and drive volatility. A middle ground, with mixed data and a noncommittal Fed, could keep markets range-bound, prolonging the wait for clarity.

Broader context: Trump’s policies and crypto

The recap’s nod to Trump’s Executive Order slashing drug prices (set for May 12, 2025) adds a wildcard. Early market reactions—Pfizer down 3.2 per cent, Johnson & Johnson off 2.8 per cent, XLV ETF dropping 1.9 per cent—suggest sectoral pressure that could spill over, nudging investors toward alternatives like Bitcoin and Ethereum (up 1.5 per cent and 1.2 per cent post-announcement).

Crypto’s resilience amid this, plus Ethereum’s Petra upgrade boosting scarcity, underscores its growing role as a sentiment barometer.

My view: A tense balancing act ahead

In my view, this week’s events will test the Fed’s resolve and market nerves. I expect CPI to come in slightly above consensus, reflecting tariff-driven price pressures, while retail sales hold steady but show early cracks from consumer caution.

Powell will likely strike a balanced tone, acknowledging risks but avoiding firm commitments—keeping rate cut bets alive but distant. Trade talks with China might yield incremental progress, though not enough to shift the tariff burden significantly, while the UK deal offers symbolic relief.

This mix suggests the Fed will stay pat for now, with rate cuts more likely in late 2025 unless growth falters sharply. Markets could seesaw—equities dipping on inflation fears, then recovering if Powell soothes nerves, while crypto holds firm as a hedge.

The bigger story is the Fed’s tightrope walk: tariffs and inflation threaten its mandate, but robust data might delay easing. Investors should buckle up for a bumpy ride as these forces collide.

 

Source: https://e27.co/how-cpi-retail-sales-and-powells-speech-could-shape-fed-policy-and-market-sentiment-20250512/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j