After being in the red for over a month, the largest digital currency by market capitalization, Bitcoin BTC/USD, has pared some of its losses and is trading up about 12% higher over the past week, making a brief high of $22,527 along with a spurt in volumes on July 8, before settling back to around $21,700 levels.

No substantial reason for price surge

Anndy Lian, Chief Digital Advisor to the Mongolian Productivity Organization, tells Benzinga the sudden price surge in BTC is unsustainable as there is no catalyst for the move.

“The only piece of good news that is closely linked to the surge would be Binance’s zero fees Bitcoin promotion. There were many people who were trying to gain VIP tiers, which resulted in a massive transaction volume. That volume can be subjected to wash trading and manipulations,” he says, adding that the incident is one-off.

Liquidation of leveraged short positions

Even as the price of BTC surged despite the lack of any significant announcement, Glassnode’s futures shorts liquidations metric reveals a substantial number of liquidations of leveraged short positions – from $10.23 million to $29.42 million between July 6 and 7, which could have exerted bullish pressure to propel BTC above the $22,500 level.

BTC price likely to fall back down

Raj Kapoor, founder and CEO of India Blockchain Alliance says given the crypto’s history of volatility, this uptick is in no way a long-term reversal and that BTC’s price is likely to fall back down.

“The uptick was accelerated when Binance put an offer [of] zero-fee trading for Bitcoin, with plans to eliminate the charges for more tokens in the future.  This was followed up with a stock market rally following the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes,” Kapoor said.

Experts point out that the crypto market may not have hit the bottom as yet due to fears of a recession, several crypto deals falling apart, surging inflation, geopolitical crises, and rising interest rates. These concerns continue to drive extra short-term volatility in the crypto and stock markets.

Higher currency outflows

Exchange outflows have risen from 20,495 BTC against 18,648 exchange inflows on July 3, according to Glassnode. While on July 7, there were 50,966 BTC in exchange outflows against 43,601 BTC in exchange inflows.

Higher exchange outflows have led to higher buying pressure for BTC, with most of the volumes coming in from the retail segment. Metrics from Santiment, point to a significant downside in the supply held by whales since July 4, indicating that whales have been gradually reducing their positions as the price of BTC climbs higher.

Economic downturn priced in

Sharat Chandra Vice President of Research and Strategy at EarthID, says BTC has begun exhibiting decisive price action as investors have priced in the incoming data about an economic downturn.

“Lack of liquidity coupled with lower trading volume accounts for Bitcoin’s intraday activity. Bitcoin prices will continue to be volatile depending on the incoming data about the impending recession,” Chandra says.

BTC surge with high volumes increases optimism

Jenny Zheng, NFT Business Development Lead at Bybit, tells Benzinga that BTC’s hourly chart gives an optimistic outlook and a 4-hour chart suggests a double bottom formation, signaling a bullish price movement ahead.

“The volumes were only on Binance. This could be because of the removal of Bitcoin spot trading fees on its anniversary. But such action has certainly triggered more buys for Bitcoin on other exchanges too. This is reflected in various communities that I am in,” Zheng says.