Global economy on edge: What it signals for investors amid economic uncertainty

Global economy on edge: What it signals for investors amid economic uncertainty

The global financial landscape today, March 21, 2025, is a complex tapestry woven with threads of uncertainty, cautious optimism, and shifting economic priorities. Let’s unpack this and offer my perspective on what’s driving these dynamics, where things might be headed, and what it all means for investors, policymakers, and everyday people keeping an eye on their financial futures.

Global risk sentiment and central bank ambiguity

The global risk sentiment being described as “tentative” feels like an apt reflection of the moment we’re in. Central bank meetings, which are typically a cornerstone for market stability, seem to have left us with more ambiguity than clarity. It’s not uncommon for these gatherings—whether it’s the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, or others—to set the tone for monetary policy expectations, influencing everything from interest rates to currency strength.

But when they raise “more questions than answers,” as the Market Wrap notes, it signals a lack of consensus or a hesitancy to commit to bold moves. Perhaps central bankers are grappling with the same uncertainties as the rest of us: inflationary pressures that refuse to fully subside, geopolitical tensions exacerbated by trade policies, and a global economy that’s still finding its footing post-pandemic.

My take is that this ambiguity is less about indecision and more about a deliberate wait-and-see approach. Central banks are likely holding their cards close, waiting for clearer signals from corporate earnings and trade developments before making significant policy shifts.

Corporate earnings, tariffs, and market reactions

Speaking of corporate earnings, they’re poised to be the next big litmus test for the markets. Investors are hungry for guidance, and rightly so. With tariff fears casting a long shadow, the performance of major companies could either bolster confidence or deepen the unease.

In the US, where the MSCI US index slipped by 0.2 per cent, the energy sector’s modest 0.4 per cent gain stands out as a bright spot. This uptick aligns with the rise in Brent crude prices to US$75 per barrel, fuelled by OPEC+’s new schedule for oil output cuts.

It’s a reminder that energy markets remain a critical driver of sentiment, especially as supply constraints—like the US sanctions on a Chinese refinery tied to Iranian oil—tighten the screws further. For American investors, the upcoming earnings season will be a chance to see if companies can navigate these headwinds, particularly with new tariffs looming on the horizon.

Those tariffs, announced by US President Donald Trump to take effect on April 2, are a game-changer. The promise of both broad reciprocal tariffs and sector-specific measures suggests a continuation of his administration’s aggressive trade stance.

From my perspective, this move is less about economic protectionism in a vacuum and more about geopolitical leverage. Trump’s strategy seems to hinge on using tariffs as a bargaining chip—pressuring trading partners into concessions while signaling strength to domestic audiences. The timing, just over a week from now, adds urgency to the mix.

Markets hate uncertainty, and with Asian equities already showing mixed responses and US equity futures pointing to a flat open, it’s clear that investors are bracing for turbulence. The delay of the European Union’s proposed tariff on American whiskey this week feels like a small reprieve, perhaps a diplomatic nod to avoid escalating tensions further, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the broader tariff storm brewing.

In China, the focus on bellwethers like Xiaomi Corp. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. is particularly telling. These tech giants have been at the heart of China’s recent stock surge, a rally that’s defied global headwinds to some extent. Investors are now asking whether this momentum is sustainable or if it’s a house of cards built on speculative exuberance.

My view is that China’s market resilience reflects a mix of domestic policy support and a pivot by companies to diversify away from US-centric supply chains—a direct response to past tariff pressures. Xiaomi’s push into emerging markets and Tencent’s dominance in digital ecosystems could provide the earnings firepower needed to keep the rally alive. But if these reports disappoint, it might expose cracks in China’s economic facade, especially as US sanctions and tariffs tighten the noose on key sectors like refining.

Financial indicators and the energy-crypto divide

Shifting to the financial indicators, the US Treasury yields dropping—with the 10-year at 4.24 per cent and the 2-year at 3.96 per cent—suggests a flight to safety amid the uncertainty. Lower yields typically signal that investors are seeking the relative security of government bonds over riskier assets, a trend reinforced by the US Dollar index’s 0.4 per cent gain as it consolidates recent losses. Gold holding firm above US$3,000 per ounce further underscores this cautious mood—it’s the classic safe-haven play.

Yet, there’s a paradox here: Brent crude’s 1.7 per cent rise indicates that not all risk assets are out of favour. My interpretation is that we’re seeing a bifurcated market—energy and commodities holding up due to supply-side dynamics, while equities and bonds reflect broader trepidation about growth prospects.

Now, let’s dive into the cryptocurrency angle, which adds another layer of intrigue. Bitcoin’s market sentiment hitting a two-year low, as per CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index of 20, is a stark warning. This index, blending ten metrics like network activity and investor behaviour, paints a picture of a “weak environment” unlikely to support a sustained rally.

Historically, Bitcoin needs a score above 60 to fuel significant price surges, and prolonged periods below 40 align with bear markets. As someone who’s tracked crypto’s rollercoaster ride, I see this as a natural ebb in the cycle. The euphoria of past bull runs—often tied to macroeconomic stimulus or institutional adoption—has given way to a sober reality.

Regulatory scrutiny, energy cost debates, and now tariff-induced economic uncertainty could be dampening enthusiasm. For Bitcoin holders, this might feel like a gut punch, but it’s not necessarily a death knell. Markets move in waves, and a bearish phase could set the stage for a stronger rebound if fundamentals like adoption or halving effects kick in later.

Ethereum, meanwhile, offers a glimmer of hope amid the gloom. Its price hovering around US$1,970, with a key support level at US$1,861, suggests resilience. The nine per cent recovery earlier this week, followed by a 3.5 per cent dip, shows volatility but also potential. If that US$1,861 support holds, a push toward the March 7 high of US$2,258 isn’t out of the question. The technicals back this up: the RSI climbing to 40 from an oversold 30 indicates fading bearish momentum, though it needs to break 50 for a confirmed recovery.

The MACD’s bullish crossover and rising green histograms above zero add to the case for upward strength. From my standpoint, Ethereum’s outlook hinges on broader market sentiment and its ability to differentiate itself from Bitcoin’s struggles. If tariff fears ease or corporate earnings surprise to the upside, ETH could ride that wave. But a break below US$1,861 would open the door to a drop toward US$1,700—a level that could test the resolve of even the most ardent HODLers.

The interconnectedness of markets

Stepping back, what strikes me most about this Market Wrap is the interconnectedness of it all. Tariffs don’t just affect trade balances; they ripple through equity markets, commodity prices, and even cryptocurrencies. Central bank hesitancy amplifies the noise, leaving corporate earnings as the next beacon.

My point of view is cautiously pragmatic: we’re in a transitional phase where old playbooks—whether for stocks, bonds, or crypto—are being rewritten. Investors should watch China’s tech giants for signs of durability, lean into energy’s relative strength, and brace for tariff-driven volatility. For crypto enthusiasts, patience might be the best strategy—Bitcoin’s malaise and Ethereum’s teetering recovery suggest a market in purgatory, awaiting a catalyst.

In conclusion, the global economy today feels like a tightrope walk. The stakes are high, and the safety net is fraying. I see my role as cutting through the noise to spotlight the data and trends that matter. Right now, that means recognising the weight of tariffs, the pivotal role of earnings, and the fragile state of risk assets like crypto.

We’re not in freefall, but we’re not on solid ground either—April 2, when those tariffs hit, could be the tipping point that defines the next chapter.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-economy-on-edge-what-it-signals-for-investors-amid-economic-uncertainty-20250321/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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A shifting global landscape: Trade wars, market sentiment, and the rise of crypto amid uncertainty

A shifting global landscape: Trade wars, market sentiment, and the rise of crypto amid uncertainty

The news that the United States appears poised to dodge a government shutdown has undeniably injected a dose of optimism into an otherwise jittery financial landscape. A stopgap funding bill, seemingly on track to pass, has eased immediate fears of fiscal paralysis in Washington, offering markets a rare moment of relief.

Yet, beneath this surface-level calm, a deeper unease persists, fuelled by President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff war and its far-reaching implications. With threats of a staggering 200 per cent tariff on European wine, champagne, and other alcoholic beverages, alongside a refusal to roll back newly enacted steel and aluminium tariffs, the spectre of a broadening trade conflict looms large.

Against this backdrop, equity markets are reeling, safe-haven assets are surging, and the cryptocurrency sector is witnessing historic investments—all of which paint a complex picture of a world in flux.

Let’s start with the positive news: the avoidance of a US government shutdown. For weeks, investors had braced for the possibility of a budgetary stalemate, a scenario that could have disrupted government operations, delayed payments, and rattled confidence in an already fragile economy. The stopgap funding bill, while not a long-term fix, buys time and signals that lawmakers can still find common ground when push comes to shove.

This development has buoyed global risk sentiment, as evidenced by a modest uptick in US equity index futures, which suggest stocks could open 0.8 per cent higher. It’s a small but meaningful reprieve, a reminder that political gridlock doesn’t always translate into economic disaster. For a moment, the focus shifts away from Washington’s dysfunction and back to the broader forces shaping the global economy.

But that relief is tempered by a much larger concern: the intensifying trade war spearheaded by President Trump. His latest salvo—a threatened 200 per cent tariff on European alcoholic beverages—has sent shockwaves through markets already grappling with the fallout from earlier tariff hikes.

This isn’t just about wine and champagne; it’s a signal of Trump’s unrelenting commitment to a protectionist agenda, one that’s now ensnaring Europe in addition to long-standing targets like China, Canada, and Mexico. Add to that his decision to stand firm on steel and aluminum tariffs, which took effect this week, and you have a recipe for heightened uncertainty.

These moves threaten to upend supply chains, inflate consumer prices, and strain diplomatic ties at a time when global growth is already slowing. The US, as the world’s largest economy, doesn’t operate in a vacuum—its policies ripple outward, and right now, those ripples feel more like tidal waves.

The equity markets tell the story of this unease. The MSCI US index, a broad measure of American stocks, has tumbled 1.5 per cent in its latest session, pushing its three-week decline past 10 per cent. This isn’t a mere correction; it’s a rout, a reflection of investor fears that Trump’s tariff policies could tip the US into a recession. Defensive sectors like utilities, up 0.3 per cent, are outperforming as investors flee riskier assets, a classic flight-to-safety move.

Meanwhile, Europe and China are emerging as unexpected bright spots. European equities, despite the looming tariff threat, are holding up better than their US counterparts, perhaps because investors see them as undervalued after years of underperformance.

China, too, offers compelling opportunities, with its markets buoyed by stimulus measures and a relative insulation from direct US consumer spending pressures. It’s a stark contrast to the plummeting US shares, which have fallen sharply from their record highs just weeks ago.

Bond markets are flashing their own warning signs. US Treasury yields have dipped, with the 10-year yield dropping 4.4 basis points to 4.27 per cent and the 2-year yield falling 2.9 basis points to 3.96 per cent. Falling yields signal a rush to safety, as investors pile into government debt amid fears of economic slowdown. The US Dollar index, up a modest 0.2 per cent, is consolidating after recent losses, suggesting currency markets are in a wait-and-see mode.

Gold, however, is stealing the show, climbing 1.9 per cent and inching closer to the US$3,000-per-ounce mark. This surge underscores its role as a haven asset in times of turmoil, a trend amplified by the trade war’s erosion of confidence in traditional growth drivers.

Brent crude, on the other hand, is sliding—down 1.5 per cent to around US$70 per barrel—as fears of reduced oil demand in a trade-constrained world take hold. Asian equities, meanwhile, are mixed, reflecting the region’s uneven exposure to US policies and its own domestic dynamics.

Amid this traditional market turbulence, the cryptocurrency sector is carving out a narrative of its own. Binance, one of the world’s leading crypto exchanges, has just secured a jaw-dropping US$2 billion investment from MGX, an Abu Dhabi-based firm. This deal isn’t just big—it’s historic, surpassing FTX’s US$1 billion raise in 2021 and marking the largest single investment ever in a crypto company.

Paid in stablecoin, no less, it’s a bold statement about the maturation of digital assets as a legitimate investment class. Binance CEO Richard Teng called it a “significant milestone,” and he’s not wrong. At a time when equities are faltering and trade wars are sowing chaos, crypto is positioning itself as a frontier of opportunity, one that thrives on disruption. The investment will likely fuel Binance’s expansion, bolster its compliance efforts, and strengthen its appeal to institutional players—a sign that the crypto ecosystem is growing up fast.

Not to be outdone, Crypto.com is making waves of its own with a strategic partnership in the UAE. Teaming up with Tawasal Al Khaleej, a tech and AI powerhouse, Crypto.com is set to integrate its trading platform into Tawasal’s Superapp, reaching nearly four million users across the Middle East. This two-phase rollout—starting with referrals and expanding into deeper tech integration—underscores the UAE’s emergence as a hub for digital finance.

Eric Anziani, Crypto.com’s President and COO, hailed the deal as a model for how crypto can merge with mainstream tech ecosystems, driving adoption and innovation. It’s a savvy move, one that capitalises on the region’s forward-thinking regulatory stance and growing appetite for digital assets.

But the crypto market isn’t immune to the broader storm. Bitcoin, the bellwether of the space, has been on a wild ride, flirting with US$80,000 before pulling back as Trump’s tariff threats weigh on sentiment. The broader crypto market has shed US$1 trillion in value over the past month, a stark reminder that even this nascent asset class isn’t decoupled from global macro forces.

The initial hype around Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric—fueled by his campaign promises to embrace blockchain—has faded as the reality of his trade policies sinks in. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s recent comments hit the nail on the head: nationalism, while appealing to some, could stoke inflation, a dynamic that could squeeze both traditional and digital markets. For now, Bitcoin and its peers are caught in the crossfire, their volatility a mirror to the uncertainty gripping the world.

The Ethereum spot ETF market offers another lens into this turbulence. Data from SoSoValue shows a net outflow of US$73.6 million from these funds on March 13, with Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) bleeding US$41.7 million and its Mini Trust losing US$5.2 million. VanEck’s ETF, by contrast, saw a modest US$1.4 million inflow, a rare bright spot.

With a total net asset value of US$6.5 billion and a cumulative historical inflow of US$2.6 billion, Ethereum ETFs remain a significant player, but the outflows signal investor caution. The trade war’s shadow, coupled with inflationary fears, is prompting a rethink of risk exposure, even in the crypto space.

So where does this leave us? From my vantage point, the global economy is at a crossroads. The averted shutdown is a win, no doubt, but it’s a fleeting one against the backdrop of Trump’s tariff escalation. Markets are nervous, and rightly so—protectionism rarely ends well, as history’s Smoot-Hawley debacle reminds us.

Yet amid the chaos, opportunities are emerging, from undervalued equities in Europe and China to the crypto sector’s bold strides. Gold’s rally and crypto’s resilience suggest investors are hedging their bets, seeking refuge in assets that might weather the storm.

“I see this as a moment of reckoning: the old rules are bending, and the new ones are still being written. Whether that’s a cause for alarm or excitement depends on where you’re standing—and how much risk you’re willing to take.” — Anndy Lian

 

Source: https://e27.co/a-shifting-global-landscape-trade-wars-market-sentiment-and-the-rise-of-crypto-amid-uncertainty-20250314/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Market wrap: US equities muted amid tariff news, gold hits near record high, digital assets is the future

Market wrap: US equities muted amid tariff news, gold hits near record high, digital assets is the future

The economic landscape of the past week has been shaped by a complex interplay of policy announcements, market reactions, and strategic corporate moves, all set against a backdrop of global uncertainty. At the forefront of these developments was President Trump’s indication of imposing tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, potentially starting from April 2nd. This move, ostensibly aimed at encouraging foreign manufacturers to invest in US production facilities, could have profound implications, particularly for industries where international supply chains are deeply integrated.

The automobile sector, already navigating through the challenges of electrification and autonomous driving, now faces the added complexity of potential tariff hikes. For European carmakers like Volkswagen and BMW, and Asian giants like Toyota and Hyundai, the implications are stark. The tariffs could increase the cost of vehicles for US consumers, potentially dampening demand, or push these companies towards establishing or expanding manufacturing operations in the US This shift, while beneficial for local job creation, comes with its own set of challenges, including high setup costs, cultural integration, and the need for skilled labor. Moreover, the environmental impact of such a move could be significant, considering the carbon footprint associated with new production setups.

Despite these looming threats, US equity markets showed a tempered response. The MSCI US index managed a slight increase of 0.3 per cent, with gains predominantly in Energy and Materials sectors, suggesting perhaps an anticipation of benefits from increased domestic production or from sectors less directly impacted by the tariffs. However, this muted market reaction might also indicate a ‘wait-and-see’ approach from investors, expecting either negotiations or modifications to the tariff policy before its full implementation.

The Federal Reserve’s stance, as articulated by various officials, was to maintain current interest rates, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amidst these trade uncertainties. Yet, the market’s expectation for a rate cut by September, as priced into futures, shows an underlying belief that the Fed might eventually need to counteract any adverse economic effects of these tariffs, like inflation or a slowdown in consumer spending. This is mirrored by a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.55 per cent, suggesting a market adjusting to new realities of potentially higher inflation or a stronger dollar, which indeed rose by 0.5 per cent to above 107.

Gold’s steady hold near record highs, with a 1.4 per cent increase, underscores the market’s search for safety amid these geopolitical and trade tensions. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil’s recovery after OPEC+’s suggestion to delay supply increases could signal a tighter oil market, which might benefit energy companies but also stir inflation concerns.

In Asia, the economic narrative was somewhat divergent. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate cut to 4.10 per cent was a move to stimulate an economy facing external pressures, yet it came with warnings against expecting too much from further monetary easing. In China, the decline in the CSI300 index by 0.9 per cent reflected ongoing concerns about economic stability and the impact of US trade policies. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index’s initial gains fizzled out, pointing to a cautious optimism regarding government support for the private sector.

Turning to the digital economy, significant movements are afoot in the cryptocurrency space. Robinhood Markets’ planned expansion into Singapore through Bitstamp, an exchange it acquired for US$200 million, highlights a strategic push into Asia’s burgeoning crypto market. This move not only aims at leveraging Bitstamp’s regulatory and institutional strengths but also reflects a broader trend of integrating cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance, albeit with careful consideration of regulatory landscapes.

Hong Kong’s proactive stance on digital assets was vividly illustrated at the Coindesk Consensus Hong Kong 2025 conference, where the CEO of the Securities and Futures Commission, Julia Leung, outlined plans for new crypto products like derivatives and margin lending. This aligns with Hong Kong’s ambition to become a leading center for digital assets, especially post the 2021 crypto ban in mainland China. The issuance of nine digital asset trading licenses, with more applications in review, and the drafting of stablecoin regulations, all point towards a strategic pivot to capitalise on the global crypto boom.

From my perspective, these developments are indicative of a world where traditional economic structures are being challenged by new policies and technological advancements. The potential tariffs could lead to a reconfiguration of global supply chains, impacting not just trade but also environmental and employment policies. The Fed’s cautious approach to interest rates reflects a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and controlling inflation. Meanwhile, the rise of digital assets in regulated markets like Hong Kong and Singapore signifies a shift towards a more tech-driven financial ecosystem, where regulation will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics.

This economic juncture requires companies and investors to be agile, adapting not just to policy changes but also to technological innovations. The interplay between these economic, regulatory, and technological shifts will continue to define the strategies and fortunes of businesses worldwide, making this a critical time for strategic foresight and adaptability.

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-us-equities-muted-amid-tariff-news-gold-hits-near-record-high-digital-assets-is-the-future-20250219/

 

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j