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Trump Vs. Harris: Crypto Experts Give Final U.S. Election Analysis

Trump Vs. Harris: Crypto Experts Give Final U.S. Election Analysis

In the build-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, Bitcoin (BTC) flirted with all-time highs regarding the possibility that pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump would take the helm at the White House.

While polls are set to close on November 5, it could take days or even weeks for a winner to be declared, depending on how close the contest is.

If you are wondering whether now is a good time to buy Bitcoin, we have compiled all the information you need to know about the 2024 U.S. presidential election race.

Key Takeaways

  • The crypto markets nervously await the 2024 U.S. election outcome between Trump and Harris.
  • Polymarket favors Trump as the pro-crypto candidate, contrasting with traditional poll projections.
  • A Harris win may present a Bitcoin buying opportunity, while Trump could boost crypto optimism.
  • Key crypto experts share insights with Techopedia on the potential shift in the regulatory environment post-election.

The Tight 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Race

According to a poll by the New York Times (NYT) and Siena College, the 2024 U.S. presidential election race is the closest it has been in decades.

While odds on the crypto prediction market Polymarket showed Trump as a clear favorite to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Trump at a 61% chance compared to Kamala Harris’ 39%, traditional pollsters and media houses expect a tighter contest.

Ahead of the November 5 voting deadline, NYT’s polls highlighted seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – that could decide the fate of the election.

As of November 5, Polymarket polls showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning in Pennsylvania. However, NYT and Siena College’s final set of polls said both Trump and Harris had a 48% chance each of winning in Pennsylvania.

In 2020, current U.S. president Joe Biden won the Pennsylvania state with a narrow 1.17% margin over Trump. The 2016 U.S. presidential election saw Trump win in Pennsylvania by a slender margin.

What Happens to Crypto Post-Election? Expert Analysis

Techopedia reached out to industry experts for exclusive insights on the impact of the U.S. presidential election on the crypto market.

Anndy Lian: Republican Majority in Congress is Key for Crypto Industry

Techopedia reached out to Anndy Lian, intergovernmental blockchain advisor and author of Blockchain Revolution 2030, for his thoughts on the U.S. presidential election race.

Firstly, Lian highlighted how crucial it was for the Trump-led Republican party to secure a majority in both houses of the U.S. Congress.

“For Republicans to effectively push through pro-crypto legislation, they really need to secure a majority in both houses. Without that majority, even a pro-crypto president might struggle to get meaningful bills passed.”

“So, while a Trump victory could spark optimism in the crypto space, the real key to unlocking potential growth lies in having a Republican majority in Congress.

“This combination could pave the way for policies that truly benefit the crypto market and help it thrive in the long run,” he added.

Next, we asked Lian what was in store for the crypto industry if Harris-led Democrats were to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“Harris has talked about supporting technological advancements, including digital assets, but there’s a concern that her policies might not stray far from the regulatory frameworks already in place.

“This could lead to an environment that focuses heavily on consumer protection and oversight, which might limit the more hands-off approach that many crypto advocates prefer.

“In the end, while a Democratic administration under Harris may not be as favorable for crypto as a Republican one, it doesn’t mean the industry is doomed.

The real question will be how her administration chooses to navigate the fast-changing world of cryptocurrencies.”

Finally, we asked Lian what he thought of the common notion that crypto regulations will change for the better no matter who wins the U.S. presidential elections.

“The idea that crypto regulations will improve regardless of who wins the presidency is an interesting one, but I think it oversimplifies a complex issue,” said Lian.

“The regulatory environment is influenced not just by the presidency but also by Congress, state governments, and international regulations.

“Even if there’s a general trend toward better regulations, the specifics will depend on the political climate and the priorities of those in power.”

10x Research: Harris Win Will Be Buying Opportunity

In a research note to Techopedia, 10x Research said the election outcome could hinge on “just one or two critical swing states”.

The Singapore-based crypto research firm noted that Bitcoin prices could slump 9% if Harris wins, while a Trump win could result in a 5% increase in Bitcoin prices.

10x Research added that a Harris win could present Bitcoin investors with a “buying opportunity.”

“The primary driver of this bull market, dating back to at least June 2023, has been the institutional adoption of Bitcoin, sparked by BlackRock’s application for a Bitcoin Spot ETF…

“Even if Harris were to ‘remain’ U.S. President, the impact on Bitcoin would likely be minimal,” said 10x Research.

However, 10x Research noted that this “buying opportunity” is not applicable to other cryptocurrencies, especially Solana (SOL), as a Harris win would lower the chances of a Solana ETF being approved.

“Crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana) could be up +5% if Trump wins, Bitcoin might be down -9% if Harris wins, and Solana -15%. Hence, a long Bitcoin vs. short Solana could be a reasonable election trade,” said 10x Research.

The Bottom Line

The run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election has been incredibly interesting to observe as a crypto enthusiast.

Be it the newfound political importance of the crypto industry or the divergence between traditional polls and crypto platform polls, one thing is for certain: we will remember 2024 as the year crypto came of age.

As we conclude this article, we would like to remind readers that cryptocurrencies are volatile assets. Always do your own research before investing. The information in this guide does not constitute investment advice and is meant for informational purposes only.

 

 

 

Source: https://www.techopedia.com/trump-vs-harris-crypto-experts-final-election-analysis

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
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USDC Becomes Compliant as MiCA Regulations Change Crypto: Expert Analysis

USDC Becomes Compliant as MiCA Regulations Change Crypto: Expert Analysis

On July 1, 2024, stablecoin issuer Circle announced that its France-based unit received an Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license, which will allow the company to issue USDC and EURC stablecoins in a compliant manner across the European Union (EU) region.

Circle is the first stablecoin issuer in the world to comply with the EU’s landmark crypto regulatory framework, the Markets in Crypto-Assets Act (MiCA).

But what does this mean for the stablecoin industry? Let’s find out below.

Key Takeaways

  • The first phase of MiCA regulations was passed in June 2023 in the EU.
  • On June 30, 2024, MiCA rules to regulate stablecoins went into effect.
  • Circle’s USDC and EURC mint and redeem platform called Circle Mint is officially available to business customers across Europe.
  • Experts say regulations will create a “comply or vanish” scenario for crypto issuers in Europe.
  • Anndy Lian says “decentralization might not be a casualty” of the incoming crypto regulatory wave.

What is the Markets in Crypto-Assets Act (MiCA)?

The MiCA is widely regarded as the world’s most comprehensive law that covers how cryptocurrencies are regulated. The first phase of MiCA regulations was passed in June 2023 in the EU.

On June 30, 2024, MiCA rules to regulate stablecoins went into effect.

Issuers are now required to hold MiCA licenses to publicly offer and trade cryptocurrencies and stablecoins within the EU region.

Under the MiCA rules, issuers are required to stop the issuance of non-euro stablecoins if they exceed a limit of over 1 million stablecoin transactions or if the value of stablecoin transactions exceeds 200 million euros.

Other MiCA compliances require issuers to have an office in an EU country, implement anti-money laundering rules, and disclose risks about issued cryptos, a portion of reserve funds held as bank deposits, among others.

The final phase of MiCA regulations will be implemented by the end of 2024.

Crypto research firm Chainalysis said: “Previously, frameworks focused solely on anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing. MiCA aims to unify the currently fragmented regulatory landscape by establishing harmonized rules, providing legal certainty, protecting consumers and investors, and supporting the integrity and stability of the European financial system while fostering innovation.”

USDC Stablecoins for Financial Institutions

Now that Circle is compliant with MiCA’s regulatory obligation for stablecoins, it has opened up a new market for its USDC stablecoin.

Circle’s USDC and EURC mint and redeem platform called Circle Mint is officially available to business customers across Europe.

Institutions will now be able to leverage near-instant settlement, low transaction costs and 24/7 availability of Circle’s stablecoins. Businesses will also be able to provide stablecoin access to their customers through their app or website.

 

Incoming Crypto Regulations Means ‘Comply or Vanish’

The landmark stablecoin regulation introduced in Europe points to a future where only compliant stablecoins are considered legal and, therefore, easily accessible to the public through centralized crypto exchanges (CEX).

“Stablecoin offerings, both local and global, will either comply or ultimately vanish from the EU market in the short to mid-term, as evidenced by recent announcements from exchanges like Binance, Bitstamp, Kraken, OKX and others that are either delisting or phasing out non-compliant tokens,” said Circle’s Dante Disprate and Patrick Hansen in a blog post for The Bretton Woods Committee.

The duo added that the stablecoin industry in the EU will consolidate around regulated tokens. They said that the EU crypto market is expected to undergo “a massive transformation” as clear regulations and strong protections increase the EU’s competitiveness to host the next evolution of the crypto industry.

Expert views: Future of Stablecoins and Decentralized Finance

In conversation with Techopedia, Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain expert, said compliant stablecoins are poised to be a “tipping point” that has the potential to supercharge stablecoin adoption globally.

Lian said:

“Regulations build trust, especially for remittance and dollar exposure, attracting new users. Integration with traditional finance unlocks wider applications for payments and financial products … Challenges remain, but compliant stablecoins have the potential to supercharge global adoption.”

When asked about the future of decentralized finance (DeFi) in the face of inevitable crypto regulations, Lian added that “decentralization might not be a casualty” of the regulations that are currently reshaping the crypto landscape.

“The dream of a decentralized future for cryptocurrencies doesn’t have to be squashed by upcoming regulations. Instead, crypto can adapt and even thrive alongside these new rules.

 

“Regulations might not extinguish the desire for decentralization, but rather create a parallel, regulated crypto space that coexists with the existing one.”

The Bottom Line

The crypto industry is evolving with incoming regulations for the better or worse depending on how you look at it. The MiCA regulations are only the start as more regions including the US are yet to implement crypto rules in their jurisdiction.

One thing is for certain. The MiCA rules will deeply influence how regulations are framed in other nations.

 

 

Source: https://www.techopedia.com/usdc-becomes-compliant-as-mica-regulations-change-crypto-expert-analysis

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

What is the Future of Avalanche Ecosystem? An On-Chain AVAX Analysis

What is the Future of Avalanche Ecosystem? An On-Chain AVAX Analysis

Avalanche (AVAX) is having an explosive year, according to an independent on-chain analysis provided to Techopedia today.

In a Web3 industry where many decentralized technologies and protocols are looking to carve their niche and find adoption, Avalanche surged ahead in the fourth quarter of 2023 based on the report by blockchain analyst Flipside.

Avalanche experienced two big surges in on-chain activity, peaking at 6.4 million transactions on November 22, 2023 and 6.3 million transactions on December 18, 2023 — both events which led to sustained growth and usage.

We explore the findings and ask other analysts for their views.

Key Takeaways

  • Avalanche experienced significant spikes in on-chain activity during the Q4 of 2023, with transaction volumes peaking at 6.4 million and 6.3 million on November 22 and December 19, respectively.
  • The surge in on-chain activity catalyzed sustained growth for Avalanche, with new user growth surpassing active users by more than 17%.
  • The total value locked (TVL) on Avalanche crossed the $1 billion mark and remained above it, driven by high-profile DeFi protocols like Benqi Finance and Trade Joe.
  • Beyond on-chain activity and DeFi growth, Avalanche witnessed other notable trends in Q4 2023, including a rise in the daily market capitalization of real-world assets (RWAs) and significant developments in blockchain gaming and NFTs.

On-chain Spikes Catalyzed Sustained Growth

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Avalanche witnessed two major spikes in on-chain activity, which, according to the report, “catalyzed sustained growth.”

The first spike, which occurred on November 22, 2023, was initiated by the launch of the ASC-20 token standard, which aimed to promote the development of the Avalanche blockchain and increase transaction volume on the network at the time of launch.

According to Flipside, the attention the ASC-20 tokens received was “immediate and intense — likely bolstered by the interest in Bitcoin Ordinals earlier that month.”

Prior to the launch of the ASC-20 token standard, daily transactions on the Avalanche network stood below 400,000 in early October 2023  —but climbed to 2.35 million on October 19, 2023, and reached a peak of 6.36 million on November 22.

The second spike came on December 19, 2023, and was driven by a burst of activity in memecoin-linked accounts.

The report highlighted:

“Daily transactions picked up again by early December, remaining above 1M from December 07 to January 02. This sustained surge resulted from two major factors: ASC-20 activity and memecoin transactions (centered on COQ, HUSKY, SHIBX, RPG, and others).”

Another brief spike on the Avalanche network occurred in mid-December 2023, as the number of daily new swappers briefly surpassed the number of active users on the Avalanche network during the peak of Avalanche’s non-fungible token (NFT) mania.

The data further suggests that new users are “organically arriving and staying active,” with the network gaining traction sustainably  —no dropping back down to previous levels.

Sustained Liquidity, Diverse Protocol Offering & Platform Dominance Capture DeFi Growth

In early Q4, the total value locked (TVL) on Avalanche in USD began to steadily rise and crossed the $1 billion mark on December 6, peaking at $1.53 billion two weeks later on December 21, and remained above the $1 billion mark as of the time of the report’s publication.

The surge in Avalanche’s TVL can be attributed to a number of high-profile protocols and decentralized exchanges (DEXs), including Benqi Finance, Aave, Struct, and Delta Prime. In particular, Benqi made up over 40% of Avalanche’s TVL by the time of its all-time high.

In addition, by the end of 2023, Trader Joe’s trading volume had increased by more than 570% and accounted for over 80% of Avalanche’s total decentralized finance (DeFi) swap volume at its peak on December 21.

“That said, the ownership of [Trader Joe’s] overall Avalanche DeFi volume only increased by 4% between the start and end of Q4 2023 – from just below 70% to over 74%. This signals that Avalanche’s DeFi ecosystem is rapidly expanding, including, but also beyond, the chain’s leading DEX.”

Other Growing Trends on Avalanche

Apart from a spike in on-chain activity and a TVL surge, the Avalanche network has seen an array of other growing trends in Q4 of 2023, including an increase in the daily market capitalization of real-world assets (RWAs) and a number of gaming and metaverse projects being deployed on the network.

Avalanche and Real-World Assets (RWAs)

Even though much of Avalanche’s RWA activity is not available for public view, Flipside’s report suggested that RWAs had gained traction in the fourth quarter of 2023 with a notable 44.7% increase in their daily market cap, showcasing a promising trend towards tokenization and trading of real-world assets on the network.

This surge was aided by Avalanche’s structure, which prides itself in high throughput, rapid transaction finality, and low transaction costs.

In addition, the chain’s structure allows for the creation of private subnets that can be customized to meet the specific needs of both investors and regulators.

It is also important to note, that by the end of the quarter, 98.3% of all RWA volume came from EUROC, the Euro-linked stablecoin on the Avalanche network.

Avalanche and Blockchain Gaming

The Avalanche network really benefited from a number of gaming and metaverse projects that either deployed or migrated to it.

Daily user volume had quadrupled since Q4 from 9,994 users at the start of October to 40,497 by the start of February 2024.

The report highlighted:

“In terms of on-chain activity, January’s total daily transaction volume grew by 36.4% relative to last October (19.2M transactions vs. 14.1M). Especially noteworthy, this user and transaction growth is increasingly distributed across new subnets and projects.”

In December 2023 the daily transaction volume of newly deployed contracts had risen to 22.4 million, with most subnets continuing growth into the first quarter of 2024.

Avalanche and NFTs

On top of successes in RWAs and blockchain gaming, Hyperscape, the multichain NFT marketplace on Avalanche, had accounted for 99% of NFT sales as of 7 February 2024, managing to beat some of its biggest competitors in the sector.

The report highlighted:

“Initially, NFT market activity was led by Salvor and Joepegs, which accounted for 60.9% and 22.1% of NFT sales as of Oct 01, 2023. However, Hyperspace surged past the competition on October 17, and its market share of NFT sales hasn’t fallen below 50% ever since, aside from a brief dip in early November.

“Based on on-chain data, Hyperspace can essentially be considered the only major player in this space, as of February 2024.”

The success of Hyperscape could be attributed to it being the first Ethereum virtual machine (EVM) chain on the Avalanche network that opened doors for new cross-chain trading possibilities between Avalanche and other prominent layer-1 chains like Solana and Sui.

Other Avalanche Milestones of 2023 & 2024

Date Event
March 21, 2023

(Community)

 Galxe expands to Avalanche, accelerating NFT-based community growth.
March 30, 2023

(Community)

 Avaissance is announced to fund and mentor digital artists
April 5, 2023

(Gaming)

 Ava Labs announces partnership with SK Planet to launch UPTN subnet.
April 25, 2023

(Ecosystem)

 Avalanche completes Cortina upgrade, streamlining operations and introducing several key changes.
May 24, 2023

(Ecosystem)

 AvaCloud launches — a web3 launchpad to build no-code ecosystems
May 25, 2023

(DeFi)

 Circle launches euro-based stablecoin EUROC on Avalanche.
June 09, 2023

(Gaming)

 Avalanche announces Arcad3, accelerating web3 development among traditional gaming studios
July 25, 2023

(DeFi)

 The Vista initiative pledges to purchase $50M USD of tokenized assets
August 30, 2023

(Ecosystem)

 Avalanche begins testing Teleporter, an EVM cross-chain messaging protocol
September 07, 2023

(Gaming)

 Stars Arena launches, driving unprecedented on-chain demand for Avalanche in 2023
September 11, 2023

(Ecosystem)

 Testing of Avalanche’s HyperSDK registers 143,000 tps
October 03, 2023

(Ecosystem)

 Firewood is unveiled to scale Avalanche’s database system
October 17, 2023

(Community)

 Avalanche launches multi-million AVAX NFT incentive program with Hyperspace
November 09, 2023

(Community)

 The Avalanche accelerator program Codebase is announced
November 15, 2023

(DeFi)

 Citi pilots FX Solution with Avalanche under Project Guardian
November 16, 2023

(DeFi)

 JPMorgan demonstrates proof of concept of tokenization on Avalanche
November 17, 2023

(DeFi)

 Republic announces its plan to launch the Republic Note on Avalanche
December 07, 2023

(Ecosystem)

 Avalanche Enters the top 10 assets by market cap
December 12, 2023

(Gaming)

 Mirai Labs ports over to Avalanche, augmenting its growing GameFi ecosystem
January 27, 2024

(Ecosystem)

 Scaling solution Vryx is announced, with plans to implement it on the HyperSDK testnet.

Future Predictions and Analyst Comments

Anndy Lian, cryptocurrency expert and the author of NFT: From Zero to Hero, told Techopedia that Avalanche’s recent successes could be attributed to the chain’s “Web3 efforts.”

“Firstly, its NFT Dokyoworld twice became the top traded NFT collection across all chains. Secondly, their gaming sector gained good traction when TSM’s Blitz App Subnet went live, processing transactions for their premium service. They even promised more features to come later in Q1 2024.

“Thirdly, their inscriptions market is also picking fairly well with strong Asian supporters. The increase in activities helps drive their price upwards.”

Lian is bullish on the future of the Avalanche network, noting that its native cryptocurrency, AVAX, could break the $40 barrier in the next two weeks if positive sentiment continues. You can read our full Avalanche price prediction here.

With new users organically joining the network, overall future sentiment for the Avalanche network stands bullish.  Since October 2023, over 12,000 deployers have created over a quarter million contracts, showcasing strong, smart contract development on Avalanche despite fluctuations in on-chain transactions and fees.

 

 

Source: https://www.techopedia.com/future-of-avalanche-avax-on-chain-analysis

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j