Quick analysis of global markets and cryptocurrency trends amid steady risk sentiment

Quick analysis of global markets and cryptocurrency trends amid steady risk sentiment

I’ve been closely monitoring the latest developments shaping markets worldwide, offering my perspective on how these events intertwine and what they mean for investors, traders, and the broader economy. From the steadying of global risk sentiment thanks to promising EU-US trade talks, to the mixed reactions in equity markets, and the fascinating dynamics in the cryptocurrency space, there’s a lot to unpack.

Let’s explore this step by step, weaving together facts, data, and analysis into a comprehensive narrative.

Trade talks set the tone for global risk sentiment

The global financial markets are currently riding a wave of cautious optimism, largely driven by positive signals from EU-US trade negotiations. On Monday, May 26, 2025, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic shared encouraging news after a productive call with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Sefcovic emphasised that the European Commission is “fully committed to constructive and focused efforts at pace” toward securing a trade deal with the United States.

This commitment couldn’t come at a more critical time, as fears of a transatlantic trade war have loomed large, threatening to disrupt the US$1.7 trillion annual trade relationship between these two economic giants. The mere hint of progress has steadied global risk sentiment, providing a much-needed respite from the uncertainty that has plagued markets in recent months.

Why does this matter? According to economic think tanks like Bruegel and the Tax Foundation, a trade war could shave 0.3 per cent off EU GDP and 0.7 per cent off US GDP. Tariffs would hit industries hard—think European automakers like Volkswagen or American tech giants like Apple—and ripple through global supply chains. Brussels and Washington are signaling a desire to avoid this scenario by agreeing to accelerate negotiations, and markets are responding in kind.

European shares, from Germany’s DAX to the broader Euro Stoxx 600, have climbed, reflecting investor relief. Meanwhile, with US markets closed for Memorial Day on Monday, Wall Street futures are pointing to a higher open on Tuesday, May 27, 2025, tracking Europe’s upward trajectory. It’s a classic case of markets pricing in hope, though the deadline for a deal on July 9, 2025, keeps the pressure on.

Asian markets feel the heat of tariff threats

Not all regions are basking in this optimism, however. Asian equity markets took a hit on Monday after US President Donald Trump reignited tariff threats targeting the EU and imported mobile phones. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong bore the brunt, dropping 1.4 per cent, outpacing declines among its regional peers.

This reaction isn’t surprising—Asia’s economies, deeply embedded in global trade networks, are hypersensitive to US policy shifts. A 25 per cent tariff on imported iPhones, for instance, could hammer companies like Foxconn, a key supplier, and disrupt the tech supply chain that powers much of the region’s growth.

Trump’s rhetoric is a familiar playbook: bold threats followed by strategic retreats. His latest social media posts have rattled nerves, promising 50 per cent tariffs on EU goods and steep levies on foreign-made phones. Yet, his decision to push EU tariff deadlines to July suggests these are bargaining chips rather than immediate policy.

Still, the uncertainty weighs heavily, and while Asian indices showed mixed performance early Tuesday, the shadow of potential trade barriers lingers. For investors, this divergence—Europe and the US rising while Asia stumbles—highlights the uneven impact of geopolitics on global markets.

US markets and the data deluge ahead

With US markets shuttered for Memorial Day, all eyes are on Tuesday’s reopening. Wall Street futures are buoyant, mirroring Europe’s gains, but the real test comes tonight with a packed US economic data slate.

We’re talking April’s preliminary durable goods orders, the March FHFA house price index, the May Conference Board consumer confidence survey, and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index for May. These aren’t just numbers—they’re pulse checks on the world’s largest economy.

Durable goods orders, a proxy for manufacturing health, could signal whether businesses are investing in big-ticket items like machinery, a sign of economic confidence. The consumer confidence survey, meanwhile, reflects how households—whose spending drives 70 per cent of US GDP—view their financial future.

A dip here, especially amid trade noise and rising Treasury yields (more on that in a moment), could dampen the stock rally. The housing and manufacturing data will round out the picture, offering clues about inflation pressures and industrial output. My take? If these figures beat expectations, they’ll reinforce the bullish sentiment from trade talks. But any weakness could stoke fears of a slowdown, testing the market’s newfound optimism.

Bonds, dollars, and commodities: The supporting cast

The bond market, quiet on Monday due to the holiday, is another piece of this puzzle. The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.51 per cent last Friday, a level that’s been climbing amid concerns over US debt and potential fiscal stimulus like tax cuts.

Higher yields make bonds more attractive than stocks, but they also raise borrowing costs, which could cool economic growth. When trading resumes, watch how yields react to the trade news and data releases—stability could bolster stocks, while a spike might trigger a sell-off.

Currency and commodity markets are also in flux. The US Dollar Index slipped 0.2 per cent to 98.93, a modest retreat that aligns with easing trade tensions reducing its safe-haven appeal. Gold followed suit, dipping 0.4 per cent to US$3,344 per ounce, as investors dialled back on defensive assets.

Brent crude oil edged down 0.1 per cent to US$65 per barrel, caught between optimism over trade (which could lift demand) and worries about rising OPEC+ supply. These moves suggest a market in transition, shedding some risk-off posture but not fully embracing a growth narrative yet.

The crypto corner: Bitcoin’s institutional boost

Now, let’s pivot to cryptocurrencies, where the action is equally compelling. Bitcoin is teasing a breakout, hovering above US$108,000 but struggling to crack the $110,000 resistance. What’s fuelling this? Institutional appetite is roaring—Bitcoin ETFs are seeing hefty inflows, and MicroStrategy just dropped US$427 million on more BTC. This isn’t a retail frenzy; it’s big money betting on digital gold.

Add in technological leaps in Bitcoin mining—think efficiency gains boosting the network’s role in decentralised finance (DeFi)—and you’ve got a recipe for cautious optimism. Analysts see US$114,000 as the next target if upcoming data or political events (like a trade deal) tilt positive.

MicroStrategy’s moves deserve a closer look. Between May 12 and May 18, 2025, the company raised US$765.4 million through share sales—1.71 million MSTR shares and 621,555 STRK preferred shares—then plowed US$764.9 million into 7,390 BTC at US$103,498 per coin.

Their stash now stands at 576,230 BTC, bought at an average of US$69,726, totalling US$40.18 billion. That’s a bold play, especially with a class action lawsuit challenging their crypto-heavy strategy. To me, it’s a high-stakes vote of confidence in Bitcoin’s future, though the legal risk adds a wildcard.

Ethereum’s bullish bounce

Ethereum’s story is just as intriguing. Trading near US$2,576, ETH is climbing within a bullish pennant on the 4-hour chart—a pattern hinting at an imminent surge.

It’s bounced convincingly from the US$2,470–US$2,495 demand zone, backed by strong technicals and growing interest in spot and derivatives markets. Why the uptick? Renewed investor faith after a breakout from $1,920 earlier this month, plus momentum pushing it toward a key descending trendline. If bulls break through, US$2,650 and US$2,713 are in sight.

On the daily chart, ETH’s holding above the US$2,550 pivot, consolidating below US$2,600–US$2,620 resistance—a zone tied to old supply levels from March. This setup screams potential, though it hinges on sustained buying pressure.

My take: A balancing act of hope and caution

So, where do I land on all this? Global risk sentiment is indeed steady, buoyed by EU-US trade progress, but it’s a fragile equilibrium.

Europe and the US are riding a wave of relief, while Asia’s jitters remind us that Trump’s tariff threats aren’t empty noise—they’re a real risk. Tonight’s US data could either cement this optimism or expose cracks in the recovery narrative. In crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum are flexing muscle, powered by institutional bets and technical strength, yet they’re not immune to macro shocks.

For investors, it’s a time to stay nimble. The trade talks are a lifeline, but deadlines and politics could derail them. Stocks look poised for gains if the data cooperates, though bonds and commodities signal lingering doubts.

Crypto’s resilience impresses me—MicroStrategy’s all-in approach is gutsy, and Ethereum’s chart is a technician’s dream—but volatility lurks. My advice? Embrace the upside, but keep an eye on the exits. The world’s holding its breath, and so should your portfolio.

 

Source: https://e27.co/quick-analysis-of-global-markets-and-cryptocurrency-trends-amid-steady-risk-sentiment-20250527/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Analysis: Japan Will Reclassify Crypto as Financial Products—What It Means for Investors

Analysis: Japan Will Reclassify Crypto as Financial Products—What It Means for Investors

Japan is taking a significant step toward reshaping its approach to cryptocurrency regulation. By 2026, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) plans to reclassify crypto assets as financial products under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. This shift will bring cryptocurrencies under the same regulatory framework as stocks and bonds, subjecting them to insider trading rules and stricter oversight.

The decision reflects Japan’s shifting stance on digital assets. Initially recognized primarily as a payment method, cryptocurrencies have grown into an investment class with increasing market influence. As blockchain technology and cashless transactions gain momentum, integrating crypto into the broader financial system appears to be a logical progression. However, this reclassification also raises questions about market access, investor protection, and the long-term impact on innovation in the sector.

Japan’s Crypto Regulations Have Changed

Japan has a history of regulating cryptocurrencies. In 2016, it recognized Bitcoin as a legal form of payment under the Payment Services Act. However, the regulatory framework treated crypto primarily as a payment method, not an investment vehicle.

Over time, as the market grew, challenges such as fraud, manipulation, and unclear regulations emerged. By the end of 2024, Japan had around 11.8 million crypto accounts, an increase of about three million from the previous year. The country ranked 23rd globally in crypto adoption, alongside South Korea and Hong Kong.

Stronger Rules Aim to Reduce Risks

The FSA’s decision reflects an effort to address market risks. Reclassifying crypto assets as financial products will bring them under stricter regulations, including bans on insider trading. This move follows similar trends in other regions.

In the US, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has pursued legal action against companies for offering tokens it classifies as securities. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework has also introduced comprehensive regulations for digital assets.

Pushing for a Cashless Economy

Japan has been promoting a cashless economy for over a decade. In 2019, cashless transactions accounted for 26.8% of total payments.

By 2023, this figure had risen to 39.3%, amounting to 126.7 trillion yen ($885 billion), according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry. The government aims to increase this to 40% by 2025. Blockchain technology is expected to play a role in achieving this goal.

Potential for ETFs and Lower Taxes

One expected impact of the new regulations is the potential approval of spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These are currently prohibited in Japan. Lawmakers are also discussing reducing the tax on crypto gains from 55% to 20%, aligning it with stock investments.

Currently, crypto profits are taxed as miscellaneous income, resulting in high tax rates. A reduction could attract more investors and increase liquidity in the Japanese market.

Institutional Investment Could Increase

The introduction of crypto ETFs could also encourage institutional investment. In the US, spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in early 2024 saw rapid adoption, accumulating over $10 billion in assets within six months.

If Japan follows a similar path, its market could experience significant growth. The FSA has been holding closed-door discussions with legal and financial experts since October 2024. The agency plans to finalize its policy direction by June 2025, with legislative changes expected in 2026.

Retail Investors May Face Restrictions

The new classification raises concerns about restrictions on retail investors. The FSA has already taken steps to limit access to unregistered foreign exchanges. In 2024, it requested that Apple and Google remove five platforms—Bybit, KuCoin, MEXC Global, LBank, and Bitget—from their app stores in Japan.

While this measure aims to protect investors, it may also reduce choices for those seeking tokens not listed on local exchanges. Some investors could turn to unregulated platforms, increasing exposure to risks.

Aligning with Global Crypto Regulations

The reclassification aligns with Japan’s broader financial and economic policies. In 2022, the FSA introduced regulations for fiat-backed stablecoins.

In April 2024, corporate tax exemptions on unrealized crypto gains were introduced, encouraging corporate involvement in the sector. These developments indicate a structured approach to integrating digital assets into the economy.

Globally, other regions are also tightening crypto regulations. The US, EU, and Singapore have introduced frameworks to manage risks while fostering innovation. Japan’s approach could influence other Asian markets, shaping regional regulatory trends.

Public Reactions Remain Divided

Public reactions to the FSA’s decision are mixed. Some see it as a necessary step toward stability and institutional adoption. Others worry about excessive regulation restricting market growth.

The balance between oversight and innovation will be critical in determining the impact of these changes. Japan’s approach in the coming years will be closely watched as a model for future crypto regulation.

 

 

 

Source: https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/analysis-japan-will-reclassify-crypto-as-financial-products-what-it-means-for-investors/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Ethereum Layer 2: A Forensic Analysis of Growth, Challenges, and Economic Impact

Ethereum Layer 2: A Forensic Analysis of Growth, Challenges, and Economic Impact

Key Points:

Ethereum Spot ETF Performance: Ethereum spot ETFs saw significant inflows last week, with BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH leading with $287 million and $97.28 million respectively, boosting their total assets to $4.4 billion and $1.51 billion.
Layer 2 Controversy: The surge in ETF inflows hasn’t directly boosted Ethereum’s market performance. The Ethereum community criticizes Layer 2 networks for being “parasitic”, causing inflation by profiting from transaction fees while relying on Ethereum’s security.
Layer 2 Sequencer Profits: Layer 2 networks like Arbitrum earn substantial profits from sequencer operations, highlighted by a $1.04 million daily revenue on February 4, with minimal cost to Ethereum, sparking debates over centralization and profit motives.
Decentralization Challenges: Layer 2’s struggle with decentralizing sequencers is noted, with most still controlled by development teams. This central control is a significant point of contention, as sequencers are lucrative due to transaction fees, MEV, and interest.
Base’s Sequencer Revenue: Base, part of the Ethereum network, has been accused of transferring all sequencer gains to Coinbase, with little transparency on how these profits are handled, leading to community suspicion about ETH sales.
Vitalik’s Response: Vitalik Buterin has acknowledged the issues surrounding Layer 2’s economic models, calling for these networks to contribute back to Ethereum to ensure ETH’s value doesn’t diminish in a Layer 2-dominated ecosystem.

Ethereum Spot ETFs Surge, But Layer 2 Controversy Clouds Market Optimism
Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $420 million last week, and all nine ETFs had no net outflow. Among them, the net inflow of BlackRock’s ETHA reached 287 million U.S. dollars, allowing ETHA to exceed 4.4 billion U.S. dollars. Fidelity’s FETH also received a net inflow of 97.28 million U.S. dollars, reaching 1.51 billion U.S. dollars thus far. However, despite the strong growth in capital inflows from Ethereum Spot ETFs, they have not significantly contributed to Ethereum’s market performance or quelled many controversies in the Ethereum ecosystem, especially regarding the Layer 2 operating model.
Recently, many netizens have criticised on “X” that Layer 2 network is actually “parasitic” on Ethereum, becoming the main source of its inflation. While Layer 2 brings scalability and efficiency to Ethereum, the economic model and operational mechanisms behind it are increasingly being questioned. This analysis combines current market data with community voices to take a look at the current Layer 2 controversy within the Ethereum ecosystem. Or is it actually Ethereum layer 2 or bad actors?
In the current cycle, the performance of ETH has lagged significantly behind the market as a whole, and some people attribute it to the heavy load of layer 2’s and some blame the Ethereum Foundation (EF)! This weekend, Layer 2’s became the object of community criticism. On February 9, Andre Cronje, co-founder of Sonic, posted on X, expressed significant public protest that Layer 2’s made a lot of money by continuing to sell sequencer earnings and had become a parasite on Ethereum. “Becoming Layer 2 – running a centralised sorting machine – charging a fee of $120 million – paying Ethereum another $10 million for DA and security – then selling $110 million for a profit – then claiming to be the “Ethereum Alliance.” I don’t understand how the Ethereum community convinced itself to accept this logic.Layer2 has become the main cause of Ethereum inflation again.”
Explaining Sorters & Collators Layer 2 – Layer 2’s Sorter Gains
Layer 2’s sequencer revenue controversy has become a commonplace topic. The collator has an indispensable role within Layer 2 architecture, and its main utility is as follows:
  1. Collect user transactions and package them into batches in a specific order.
  2. Provide users with instant transaction confirmation before the transaction is finally on the chain.
  3. Submission of transaction data compression to Layer 1 to reduce gas costs.
In Layer2’s decentralised vision, the decentralisation of the sorter operation is an essential step. However, the reality is that almost all of Layer2’s collators are run by the development team, which is one of the biggest criticisms about Layer 2’s.
Why are Layer 2’s unable to complete the decentralisation of the sorter?
There are certain technical and operational reasons for this, but another big reason that cannot be ignored is that in the real world, sorting machines are a very profitable business. The primary sources of direct revenue from the operation of the sorting machine include: 1) transaction fee differences; 2) MEV capture; 3) Funds deposit interest.
DeepSeek provides Oracle on the other actors to blame and the following: How profitable is business?
We can take a cursory look through data from a single day on February 4 (Arbitrum) On February 4, because of the collective volatility of the market, Arbitrum charged $1.04 million at the Layer 2 level in a single day, while paying Layer 1 a final settlement cost of less than $20,000 – meaning that in just one day, the chain made millions of dollars in gains from trading fee spreads. (DeepSeek, 2025)
A look at Base again!
First with Winter Mute now on Layer 2. As the most active Layer 2 network on the Ethereum mainnet ecosystem, Base has long been at the centre of relevant public opinion. As the debate about the benefits of Layer 2 sorters intensified, the community began to take aim at Base. Lucidity CIO ,Mr. Santisa took the lead on X, accusing Base of transferring all the sequencer gains to Coinbase since the launch of its own network, and there is reason to suspect that this ETH has definitely been sold off. “Since its launch, BASE has been transferring sorter fees to Coinbase. We don’t know if they sold it, but we do know that they didn’t deploy the funds on Base or keep them on-chain. In the absence of further transparency, we can reasonably assume that they have sold off. They don’t agree with Ethereum’s stance.” (Santisa, 2025)
The figure shows the Base sorter income address
(0xEc8103eb573150cB92f8AF612e0072843db2295F) Close analysis, combined with Coinbase’s earnings data was used to analyse whether Base had sold the ETH in question. Thorough post mortem analysis and on-chain data showed that Base had earned significant income through sorters within the past 12 months. Over $100 million in revenue, with a profit margin of over 90%, all of these fees have been transferred to the exchange via the Base-Ethereum-Coinbase network path. According to Coinbase’s public earnings data, as of June 30, 2023 Coinbase held about $230 million in ETH on its balance sheet, when the price of ETH was $1,934, which means Coinbase held 118,924 ETH; As of September 30, 2024, Coinbase held 119696 ETH on its balance sheet. Suspicious indeed.
Suspiciously since the launch of Base, Coinbase only added 772 ETH to its balance sheet, so where did the hundreds of millions of dollars of Base sequencer revenue go? There seems to be only one answer! One might question that Base’s revenue, as a (notionally) independent network, and should not be counted on Coinbase’s balance sheet, this is unreasonable, as Coinbase has highlighted Base’s increased revenue in multiple financial statements. “The Ethereum community is proud of their Layer 2, but what Layer 2 does every day is transfer fee revenue from Layer 2 to Layer 1 and then to Coinbase to sell. This is the frontrunner of the Ethereum ecosystem. The Ethereum community wake up.” Base (Coinbase) on SOL with wintermute and now with Ethereum Layer 2.
Vitalik is Overwhelmed!
As of the posting, Vitalik has not responded to the accusations made by netizens other Ethereum community members, but in his January 24 self-written article, under the pressure of public opinion, Vitalik sends out a message calling out L2 proprietors: “Back for ETH,” a permutation of Vitalik’s frustration with the current state of Layer2’s operations is visible.
Vitalik said in the article that it is necessary to clarify the economic model of ETH to ensure that ETH continues to accumulate value in a Layer2-intensive world.
On an executive level, Vitalik encourages Layer 2 to support ETH by contributing a percentage of its fees, providing a permanent support mortgage and donating the proceeds to Ethereum mainnet.

By @LarryMetaTrust CSO, HashAi and @anndylian, Blockchain Expert & Author / Graphics by @Crypt0JayBear

Source: https://x.com/OfficialHashAI/status/1889758949681090841

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j