Anndy Lian took the stage at NFT.NYC to share his insights on the evolving landscape of non-fungible tokens (NFTs). His speech, a blend of personal anecdotes and industry analysis, provided a compelling look at the future of NFTs.
The Journey from Skepticism to Mainstream
Lian reminisced about the early days of NFTs, when his predictions were met with skepticism. Yet, he stood firm, and today, the diverse utilities of NFTs vindicate his foresight. His books, “Blockchain Revolution 2030” and “NFT: From Zero to Hero,” have not only topped sales charts but also demystified NFTs for the masses.
NFT Revolution 2024: The Trends Shaping the Future
Lian highlighted several key trends poised to shape the NFT space:
1) Hybrid Protocols such as ERC404: The convergence of fungible tokens (FTs) and NFTs creates new possibilities for asset management and ownership.
2) Real-World Asset NFTs (RWA NFTs): NFTs are transcending digital art, impacting sectors like real estate and supply chain management, making transactions more transparent and efficient. Nexum.ai is another example he gave on how they use supply chain financing with NFTs.
3) Institution-Backed NFTs: Major institutions are exploring NFTs, wrapping products within them, and providing a layer of credibility and security to the digital assets.
4) AI-Enhanced NFTs: Beyond generative art, AI is being leveraged to offer membership access and training products, signaling a move towards more practical applications. Copx.ai was the platform he quoted.
5) Meme-Inspired NFTs with a Twist: Projects like SquidGrow demonstrate the power of community and intellectual property (IP) in driving the value and utility of NFTs.
5) Photography NFT Marketplaces: Real photographs as NFTs offer a unique taste and authenticity that could attract big brands and create new opportunities for photographers. The example he shared about Seed.Photo is good sample.
Final Thoughts: The Road Ahead
Concluding his speech, Lian stressed the need for security measures to foster consumer adoption. The goal is to integrate mainstream buyers into the NFT ecosystem, ensuring robust communities and sustainable revenue streams.
Anndy Lian’s speech at NFT.NYC was more than just a presentation; it was a clarion call for the industry to embrace the NFT revolution with open arms and a cautious mind. As we look towards the future, it’s clear that NFTs are not just a fleeting trend but a transformative force reshaping the digital economy.
This article aims to encapsulate the essence of Anndy Lian’s speech, offering readers a glimpse into the potential trajectories of NFTs. For those looking to go deeper into the subject, Lian’s books and social media channels are good references in the realm of digital assets.
Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.
Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.
An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.
Bitcoin halving is the most anticipated event of the crypto industry that occurs once every four years. According to the Bitcoin halving countdown, April 18, 2024, is the date when Bitcoin is expected to mint its 840,000 block and subsequently undergo its fourth halving.
From an investor’s perspective, halvings are seen as milestone events that have ushered crypto bull markets. For miners, halvings bring challenging business conditions where miner revenues are cut by half and production costs per Bitcoin theoretically double.
In this article, we conduct an in-depth Bitcoin halving analysis, as well as provide potential post-halving price scenarios and tips for both investors and miners from industry experts on how to prepare for the fourth Bitcoin halving cycle.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin is expected to undergo its fourth halving on April 18, 2024.
Historical charts showed Bitcoin prices took between 12 to 18 months to peak post-halving.
The introduction of spot BTC ETFs has created unprecedented market conditions.
Graeme Moore, the head of tokenization at Polymesh Association, predicted that the price of BTC could go as high as $100,000 past halving in 2024.
Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain expert, predicted that the BTC price post-halving has the potential to surge 10% higher than its all-time high, which currently surpasses $73,000.
With more funds flowing into BTC ETFs, Lian added, the BTC price could go up an additional 30% by the end of the next quarter.
Yuya Hasegawa, an analyst at the crypto exchange Bitbank, expected a strong rally during the latter half of this year.
How to Prepare for the Next Bitcoin Halving
Tips for Investors
The crypto market is unpredictable, but that shouldn’t keep investors from learning about historical patterns and possible outcomes to stay ahead of the curve.
Here is how investors can prepare for the Bitcoin halving event.
1. No Near-Term BTC Price Increase Guaranteed
Financial markets are forward-looking. Trades are made based on the potential of future returns. Therefore, it may come as no surprise that investors have been accumulating Bitcoin since the fourth quarter of 2023 in preparation for Bitcoin’s fourth halving, having seen BTC prices surge in past halving cycles.
Bitcoin whale Michael Saylor’s company MicroStrategy alone has spent more than $1 billion to acquire over 34,000 Bitcoins between October 2023 and February 2024.
As of March 13, 2024, Bitcoin prices have gained over 70% year-to-date and hit new all-time highs of over $73,000 without seeing a significant correction in the first three months of 2024.
Given the predictable and anticipated nature of halving events, you should keep in mind that rational investors are most likely to buy Bitcoins ahead of the event.
Therefore, the Bitcoin halving event does not guarantee an immediate uptick in Bitcoin prices. We could even see a sell-the-news event as euphoria around Bitcoin halving fades away.
2. Positive Long-Term Impact of Halving
Over the mid-to-long term, halving is expected to have a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin due to the reduction of BTC supply. Supporting this theory is the historical market data that showed that Bitcoin prices surged astronomically over the next 18-month period following past halving cycles.
Following the second halving in July 2016, Bitcoin prices rose as much as 3,103% over the next 525 days.
Similarly, after the third halving period in May 2020, Bitcoin prices jumped as much as 707% within the next 546 days.
3. Impact of Spot BTC ETFs
The introduction of spot BTC ETFs has created unprecedented market conditions that halving cycles of the past did not encounter.
Since the spot BTC ETFs were approved on January 11, 2024, the popularity of the instrument has created a Bitcoin demand shock.
For reference, the average BTC daily demand on ETF trading days currently stands at 4500 Bitcoins surpassing an average of 921 new Bitcoins minted per day, Coinshares reported.
If the spot BTC ETF remains consistent when the supply of Bitcoins reduces by 50% post-halving, the supply-demand principles of economics tell us that Bitcoin prices might rise.
Tips for Miners
One of the biggest challenges that the BTC halving event poses for miners is the reduction in mining rewards.
Apart from the 50% cut, the halving might also increase competition, heightening mining difficulty and potentially increasing the price of transaction fees.
Yuya Hasegawa, an analyst at the crypto exchange Bitbank, told Techopedia in a note that miners often have to consider how they will manage to operate with 50% less revenue.
“This has affected Bitcoin’s hash rate and the network’s difficulty post-halving, as some of them halt operation until the difficulty drops low enough for them to make a profit again. Some others sell their Bitcoin holdings to make up for decreased cash flow.”
However, Hasegawa added that miners should also consider the release of spot BTC ETFs, which could make the situation a little different.
This is because spot BTC ETFs are buying more than they can produce almost every day, thus overwhelming the BTC supply.
“If the ETF inflow continues to overwhelm Bitcoin’s supply, which it probably will since it already is buying more than the network can produce in a day even before halving, the price may continue to rise post-halving, and that could maintain mining profitability.”
Moreover, miners should also prioritize energy efficiency as the cost of electricity is a major component of mining expenses, Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain expert and the author of NFT: From Zero to Hero, explained.
This can be done through the use of efficient hardware and access to low-cost energy sources, which can help maintain profitability post-halving.
Lian told Techopedia:
“In the past, most miners looked at standard operation costs. I hope they will do more research and stay informed about market behaviors and trends to make educated decisions regarding their operations. They should evaluate their financial health, including debt levels and capital reserves, to withstand potential revenue drops due to the halving. This would also give them a gauge on how fast they expand.”
Bitcoin Price Scenarios to Consider With Approaching BTC Halving Event
Post-Halving Bitcoin Price Action: Analyst Views
Historically, BTC halving events led to the cryptocurrency’s price increases due to the reduced supply of new Bitcoin tokens entering the market.
Lian predicted that the BTC price post-halving has the potential to surge 10% higher than its all-time high, which currently surpasses $73,000.
However, he added that post-halving and with more funds flowing into BTC ETFs, the BTC price could go up an additional 30% by the end of the next quarter.
“It’s also worth noting that predictions vary widely, and the actual outcome will depend on a multitude of factors, including market demand, investor sentiment, and broader economic conditions. Always remember that investing in cryptocurrencies carries risk, and prices can be highly volatile. It’s advisable to conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from financial experts before making investment decisions,” Lian added.
The launch of spot BTC ETFs earlier this year was a huge success, and their demand could grow even bigger later in the year, according to Hasegawa.
“Furthermore, halving will crunch Bitcoin’s supply, so we could expect that those three elements (rate cuts, ETFs, halving) will together create a strong rally sometime during the latter half of this year.”
Graeme Moore, the head of tokenization at Polymesh Association, predicted that the price of BTC could go as high as $100,000 past-halving in 2024 as the cryptocurrency is already experiencing massive heights.
“We are already seeing the effect of the upcoming halving with a 50% increase in price since February. Bitcoin is now over $72K. In addition, the relentless bid from the new Bitcoin ETFs is proving that the broader market is beginning to see the value in a global, decentralized, provably scarce asset. If the previous cycles are an indicator, the price of Bitcoin will continue to rally into the halving and after.”
Historical Bitcoin Halving Analysis
A study of historical Bitcoin halving charts showed that BTC consistently saw price increases in the weeks ahead of halving events. Following halving events, Bitcoin showed a tendency to trade within a range in the next months.
Following the second Bitcoin halving, BTC price traded range bound between $600 and $800 from July 2016 to November 2016.
Similarly, following the third Bitcoin halving cycle in May 2020, BTC traded in the $8,000-$14,000 range for the next six months before finally breaking out to scale new all-time highs.
Historical charts also showed that Bitcoin prices took between 12 months to 18 months to hit the peak price during the first three halving cycles.
Market catalysts that supported Bitcoin prices during each cycle included the European debt crisis of 2009-2012, the initial coin offering (ICO) boom of 2016, and ultra-low interest rates of the post-pandemic era.
The Bottom Line
The upcoming BTC halving is poised to impact both investors and miners. While historical data suggests a potential for long-term price increases, short-term volatility and uncertainty remain prevalent.
Investors should exercise caution, considering the unpredictability of market reactions post-halving, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
Miners facing reduced rewards and heightened competition must prioritize efficiency and strategic planning to navigate the challenges ahead.
As the crypto landscape evolves with the introduction of spot BTC ETFs, staying informed and adaptable will be crucial for all stakeholders in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.
Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.
An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.
“Web 3.0 brings endless opportunities to many people, changes lives in Kenya, removes barriers in India and empowers developers in China to service global audiences during the COVID lockdown period. Your gateway to Web 3.0 is just one click away. Let’s innovate.”
At the beginning of the year, when the crypto market was red hot, it was extremely tough to understand what was going on in the NFT industry.
At the beginning of the year, when the crypto market was red hot, it was extremely tough to understand what was going on in the NFT industry.
The massive influx of collections, new marketplaces, and easy money in the space created the perfect mix of incentives for fraudulent activity. As we know, I published an article in October about NFT wash trading, several “OpenSea killers” were built entirely on fake activity, and not everything was as it seemed when you looked at NFT collection leaderboards. As the market crashed, so did activity across the board (both fake and organic).
But not all was negative. Several highly innovative NFT collections broke the mold of zany PFP images and proved a market for digital, non-fungible art existed.
While there was a proliferation of small collections and grassroots community-building in some corners of the industry (e.g., Solana and Magic Eden), the year also saw consolidation with the birth of the first NFT megacorp in Yuga Labs.
Instead of telling you what to think about 2022 and where the NFT world is heading in 2023, this article has the essential stats from last year so you can create your own analysis.
9 Stats about the NFT Industry
1. Total sales of NFTs in 2022 was $55.5B
This is up 175% from $20.2B in 2021. When you compare 2020 to 2022 total sales, it is 390X more.
2. The market capitalization of the NFT industry peaked on April 4th at $41.5B
Market capitalization is calculated as the sum of each NFT valued at the greater of its last traded price and the floor price of the collection, respectively. Suspected wash trades have been filtered out.
2022 Market Cap & Trading Volume
3. Roughly 85K NFT collections were launched last year
In 2021, there were around 14.5K collections, while the number nearly reached 99K by the end of 2022. Notice that Opensea remains the leader in both years.
5. Only 2,623 collections had more than 1000 unique buyers
As with all stats in the NFT industry, this one should be taken with a grain of salt due to the significant amount of wash trading, especially during the year’s first half.
6. NFT trading volume reached its 2022 peak in January, with $17.4B in value
This was more than a 4x jump from the previous month (December 2021). This was also the month when Google searches for the keyword “NFT” reached their all-time high.
7. The biggest gap between the number of sellers and buyers was in January, with about 200K more sellers than there were buyers.
Yet January was also the hottest month for NFT prices for most major collections, indicating that using these metrics as an analog for supply and demand has flaws.
8. Last year, 46% of total NFT trading volume was likely to be caused by wash trading
There are several indicators and filters to detect suspicious activity. To identify these types of transactions, I use Footprint Analytics’ filters to separate transactions to the following formula:
a.) Overpriced NFT trades (10x OpenSea Average Price)
b.) Collections with 0% royalties (except CryptoPunks and ENS)
c.) An NFT bought more than a normal amount of times in a day (currently filtered for more than 3+)
d.) An NFT bought by the same buyer address in a short period (currently filtered for 120 minutes)
9. The collection with the largest market cap by the end of the year was CryptoPunks at $1.1B
Crypto Punks, launched by Larva Labs in 2017, was the first NFT collection to become a household name and have the highest floor price in the industry. Yuga Labs acquired the IP of the collection in March 2022.
10. Trading volume of major collections in the Yugaverse—Yuga Labs’ portfolio of products—was $3.1B
This sum includes Bored Ape Yacht Club, Mutant Ape Yacht Club, Bored Ape Kennel Club, Otherside, and CryptoPunks. It excludes Meebits, which had more trading volume than all of these combined,
11. Yuga Labs’ portfolio accounts for about 20% of the total market cap of the entire NFT industry
This sum includes Bored Ape Yacht Club, Mutant Ape Yacht Club, Bored Ape Kennel Club, Otherside, CryptoPunks and Meebits.
12. Without any wash trade filtering, Terraforms by Mathcastles had an astounding $12B in trading volume, more than any other collection, across 11,341 transactions
However, 99.8% of the volume and 46.3% of transactions were detected as wash trading.
14. ArtBlocks Curated was the 4th most traded collection by volume and amassed a market cap $325M
ArtBlocks demonstrated that there is a market for high-end artistic NFTs—it stands out among Yuga PFP projects, and metaverse land NFTs at the top of the rankings
15. There were 7 major collections whose volume was over 95% wash trading
For this stat, “major” means having over $1M in real trading volume. Terraforms by Mathcastles, More Loot, dotdotdots, Dreadfulz, Audioglyphs, CryptoPhunksV2, and Meebits.
6 Stats about Chains and Markets for NFT Projects
16. Ethereum had 95% percent of volume, 47% of transactions, and 71% of protocols
These figures are almost the same as in 2021. Based on the data, Ethereum is still the most widely used for NFT.
OpenSea remained the marketplace of choice for Ethereum and Polygon. However, Magic Eden capitalized on its Solana first-mover advantage to be the marketplace of choice for collections on this chain (OpenSea started listing them in April.) Note: a collection can list on multiple marketplaces.
19. Solana had more active users in October, with 411K, than Ethereum, with 392K
While most of the blue-chip collections and collectors transact on OpenSea and Ethereum, Solana built up a sizable community of NFT enthusiasts in 2022. Solana’s active users hovered between 20-45% of the total market share—October was the only month it overtook Ethereum for this metric
23. Animoca Brands closed the largest round of the year, $358M led by Liberty City Ventures
Animoca has said it will use the funding for strategic acquisitions and investments, develop its games and metaverse products, and acquire licenses for popular intellectual properties.
27. The 2 largest rounds for pure NFT projects went to OpenSea ($300M) and Dapper Labs ($250M)
The OpenSea round was one of only 5 Series C or D rounds in 2022. Dapper Labs is the studio behind the NBA Top Shot collection.
Key Takeaways
As we can see, Web 3.0 is proliferating. NFT is undoubtedly part of the whole Web 3.0 ecosystem. In the Web 3.0 ecosystem, NFTs are often used to facilitate the buying and selling of unique digital assets on decentralized platforms. These platforms use smart contracts to enable transactions without the need for intermediaries. They can facilitate the buying and selling of NFTs and allow NFT holders to earn passive income by lending out their NFTs. There are many use cases to showcase.
Web 3.0 will continue to draw more investment in 2023 based on some of the deal flows I see in the market. OKX Ventures and GSRV co-lead a $2 Million seed round for a Web 3.0 decentralized Identity platform. Binance Labs launched a $500M fund to support promising Web 3.0 projects and start-up firms with great potential earlier this year. Du Jun, the co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange Huobi Global, runs ABCDE Capital, a $400M Web 3.0 venture capital fund is dedicated to investing in web3 builders.
Apart from the crypto firms-led firms, it’s also true that traditional investment companies are beginning to take notice of the Web 3.0 ecosystem and are starting to invest in companies and projects that are working on decentralized technologies, such as blockchain and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).
There are several reasons why traditional investment companies might be interested in investing in web3 technologies. One reason is that the Web 3.0 ecosystem is still in its early stages and has much growth potential. Decentralized technologies have the potential to revolutionize many different industries, from finance and real estate to art and collectibles.
Another reason is that the Web 3.0 ecosystem is relatively uncorrelated with traditional financial markets, which can offer diversification benefits for investors. This can be especially appealing in times of economic uncertainty, when traditional financial markets may be more volatile.
Ending with a quote:
“Web 3.0 brings endless opportunities to many people, changes lives in Kenya, removes barriers in India and empowers developers in China to service global audiences during the COVID lockdown period. Your gateway to Web 3.0 is just one click away. Let’s innovate.” – Anndy Lian.
Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.
Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.
An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.
