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Crypto’s wake-up call: How a stronger dollar and US$113 oil are crushing risk assets

Crypto’s wake-up call: How a stronger dollar and US$113 oil are crushing risk assets

The crypto market’s recent 0.67 per cent decline to a total capitalisation of US$2.29 trillion reflects more than routine volatility. It signals a decisive macro-driven repricing, with digital assets now moving in lockstep with traditional risk indicators. Over the past week, Bitcoin and the broader crypto complex have maintained a 64 per cent correlation with the S&P 500, a clear signal that rates-sensitive capital is treating crypto as part of the same risk bucket as equities. This is not a crypto-specific story. It is a story about liquidity, inflation expectations, and how geopolitical shocks transmit through every corner of the global financial system.

The primary catalyst for this selloff stems from a sharp spike in oil prices and a surging US dollar. Escalating Middle East tensions, including direct US–Iran conflict, pushed Brent crude above US$113.7 per barrel, its highest level since 2022. West Texas Intermediate followed, surging as much as 22 per cent to over US$111 a barrel at the open. Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index gained 0.6 per cent as investors fled to safety. This dual shock creates a powerful headwind for risk assets. Higher energy costs feed inflation expectations just as labour market data shows unexpected weakness, with 92,000 jobs lost in February. A stronger dollar tightens global liquidity conditions, making dollar-denominated assets more expensive for international holders and pressuring valuations across the board. Crypto, with its high beta and sensitivity to liquidity flows, feels this pressure acutely.

Bitcoin itself fell 2.03 per cent, contributing over half of the total decline in market cap. This move was not random. Large holders, often called whales, distributed coins they had recently accumulated, adding supply to an already nervous market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows, compounding the selling pressure. The Fear and Greed Index reading of 18, labeled Extreme Fear, confirms that sentiment has turned decisively negative. When sentiment reaches these extremes, technical levels gain outsized importance. Bitcoin now tests the US$66,000 to US$66,500 support zone. A sustained break below this range opens the path toward US$63,700. Bitcoin dominance holding above 58 per cent suggests capital is not rotating aggressively into altcoins, which typically underperform in risk-off environments. This concentration of weakness in Bitcoin, the market’s anchor, drags the entire ecosystem lower.

The crypto selloff did not occur in isolation. Global markets moved in tandem, confirming the macro nature of the move. US equity futures plunged at the open, with Dow futures dropping over 800 points, roughly 1.8 per cent, and Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 1.9 per cent. Asian markets reflected similar stress, with the Nikkei 225 tumbling 6 per cent toward the 52,000 level, hitting an eight-week low amid Japan’s high dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Even gold, traditionally a safe haven, fell 1.4 per cent to US$5,099 an ounce in early spot trading, suggesting that liquidity needs are forcing investors to sell what they can, not just what they want to. This broad-based risk-off move underscores that crypto is no longer an island. It trades as part of a global macro tape, where oil, the dollar, and equity volatility set the tone.

Behind these price moves lie concrete geopolitical and economic fundamentals. Escalating hostilities involving Iran have effectively halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20 per cent of global oil consumption. This disruption threatens to rekindle inflation fears just as central banks weigh their next moves. The market now prices in a 97 per cent chance that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its March 18 meeting, with any potential cuts pushed back toward late 2026. This shift in expectations matters profoundly for crypto, which thrives in environments of easy money and declining real yields.

Adding to the uncertainty, corporate developments, such as BlackRock limiting withdrawals from its US$26 billion private credit fund, sparked contagion fears, causing its shares to tumble seven per cent. While Broadcom’s 4.8 per cent jump on bullish AI chip forecasts offered a rare bright spot, it was not enough to offset the broader risk aversion. Meanwhile, China’s decision to set its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5 per cent to five per cent, the lowest in decades, signals ongoing deflationary pressures and trade tensions that further complicate the global outlook.

Looking ahead, the near-term path for crypto hinges on two factors: oil price stability and the Federal Reserve’s tone on March 18. If energy markets calm and the Fed maintains a dovish stance despite inflationary pressures, crypto could find a floor near current levels. A sustained move above US$113 per barrel for oil would keep inflation expectations elevated, likely delaying rate cuts and maintaining pressure on risk assets.

Technically, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above US$66,000 remains the key level to watch. A decisive break below would likely trigger algorithmic selling and force leveraged positions to unwind, accelerating the move toward US$63,700. Traders should also monitor ETF flow data for signs of institutional accumulation or distribution, as these flows have become a reliable proxy for smart money sentiment in the current market structure.

This moment tests a core question for the crypto ecosystem: does it retain its narrative as an uncorrelated alternative asset, or has it matured into a risk-on instrument that trades with tech stocks and macro liquidity? Tell me about it. 

 

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-wake-up-call-how-a-stronger-dollar-and-us113-oil-are-crushing-risk-assets-20260309/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Risk assets retreat under macro pressure: Gold, crypto, and tech lead the decline

Risk assets retreat under macro pressure: Gold, crypto, and tech lead the decline

The global markets entered a state of cautious recalibration as risk sentiment softened amid a confluence of political, monetary, and liquidity-driven pressures. The catalyst for the shift was President Donald Trump’s nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee.

While the announcement aimed to reassure markets about the Fed’s institutional independence, it simultaneously stoked fears of a more hawkish policy trajectory than previously anticipated. This development coincided with a brief partial government shutdown over the weekend, though lawmakers are expected to swiftly pass a funding agreement once the House reconvenes. Against this backdrop, investors turned their attention toward Friday’s January employment report, which may offer critical clues about labour market fragility and, by extension, the timing of future rate cuts.

Equity markets reflected this growing unease. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37 per cent, the S&P 500 dropped 0.43 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 0.94 per cent, weighed down by profit-taking in leading technology names. The VIX index, a barometer of market volatility, climbed to 17.44, signalling rising investor anxiety.

With major tech earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, and Palantir on deck, the sector faces renewed scrutiny not just on fundamentals but on its sensitivity to macro conditions. The prevailing view remains that the US economic recovery is uneven, warranting a strategic pivot toward broader diversification through vehicles like the S&P Equal Weighted or Low Volatility Index, rather than continued concentration in mega-cap tech. Beyond artificial intelligence narratives, select cyclicals such as financials and industrials, along with defensive healthcare segments, appear increasingly attractive.

Fixed income markets reacted with nuance to the Warsh nomination. The two-year Treasury yield declined by 3.7 basis points to 3.522 per cent, while the ten-year yield edged up slightly by 0.4 basis points to 4.235 per cent. This flattening at the short end suggests markets priced in a potential delay in near-term rate cuts, given Warsh’s reputation for monetary conservatism.

Nevertheless, the baseline expectation holds for two rate reductions in the second and third quarters of 2026, contingent on labor market deterioration. In this environment, extending bond duration to the five-to-seven-year range and accumulating high-quality fixed income, particularly in developed and emerging market investment grade, offers a prudent hedge against both volatility and eventual easing.

Currency markets mirrored the dollar’s resilience. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.74 per cent to 96.991, with the euro falling to 1.1851 and the yen weakening to 154.78 against the greenback. Notably, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi briefly fueled yen weakness by calling a softer currency a huge opportunity for exporters, a remark she later walked back. Despite the dollar’s short-term strength, the longer-term outlook anticipates depreciation, driven by expected Fed easing. Consequently, EUR/USD is positioned for gains, while USD/JPY should trend lower as broad-based dollar weakness takes hold.

Commodities experienced a historic collapse in precious metals. Gold plunged 8.9 per cent to US$4,894 per ounce, and silver cratered 26.4 per cent to US$85, an unprecedented single-day decline for both. The selloff stemmed not from fundamental supply-demand shifts but from a systemic liquidity crunch that forced leveraged positions across asset classes to unwind.

Meanwhile, Brent crude dipped 0.4 per cent to US$69 per barrel as President Trump signalled openness to negotiations with Iran, reducing immediate geopolitical risk premiums. The outlook for oil remains cautiously negative, while gold’s role as a defensive hedge endures despite its recent volatility.

In Asia, regional equities followed global trends lower, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tumbling 2.1 per cent and Taiwan’s TWSE retreating 1.5 per cent. Profit-taking dominated amid elevated volatility in both crypto and precious metals markets. The strategic stance remains overweight on emerging market Asia, with particular emphasis on China’s tech and dividend-paying stocks, Korea and Taiwan’s semiconductor leaders, and Singapore within ASEAN.

The crypto market, now valued at US$2.53 trillion, declined 5.04 per cent over 24 hours, closely tracking the S&P 500 with a 67 per cent correlation. This underscores crypto’s current identity as a macro-sensitive risk asset rather than a standalone store of value. The primary driver was a severe US dollar liquidity shortage, as highlighted by macro investor Raoul Pal, who attributed the US$250 billion crypto drawdown to capital flight from long-duration assets like Bitcoin and tech equities. Compounding this, the Warsh nomination dimmed hopes for imminent rate cuts, tightening financial conditions further.

Secondary factors amplified the decline. The Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 15, its lowest since November 2025, while US$110 million in Bitcoin long positions were liquidated, triggering a cascade of forced selling. In a market with thin liquidity and high leverage, such dynamics can rapidly spiral into self-fulfilling panic.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s ability to hold the US$75,000 to US$78,000 support zone will dictate near-term direction. A daily close below US$75,000 could open the door to a test of the yearly low near US$2.42 trillion. Conversely, stability above this band and ideally a reclaim of the US$2.6 trillion level could signal a technical rebound. However, until macro liquidity conditions improve or institutional ETF flows turn decisively positive, the path of least resistance remains downward. The week ahead will test whether markets can find a floor or if deeper deleveraging lies ahead.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/risk-assets-retreat-under-macro-pressure-gold-crypto-and-tech-lead-the-decline-20260202/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The Treasury Trap: How Crypto-Backed Stocks Are Trading Below Their Own Assets

The Treasury Trap: How Crypto-Backed Stocks Are Trading Below Their Own Assets

I’ve looked into the financial markets for over two decades, from the dot-com bubble to the global financial crisis, from the rise of passive ETFs to the wild west of crypto winters. But nothing in my career has felt quite as structurally precarious as the current collapse of the digital asset treasury company (DATC) model. It’s not just a market correction. It’s the implosion of a financial illusion built on leverage, narrative, and a dangerous assumption that arbitrage would hold forever. Today, the numbers speak for themselves: market-to-Net Asset Value (mNAV) ratios, the very heartbeat of these firms, are collapsing. Strategy, once the gold standard, now trades near an mNAV of 1.5. That might sound healthy until you realize it’s a steep discount from the 3x, 4x, even 5x premiums it once commanded. Worse, companies like Bitmine Immersion and SharpLink have already dipped below 1.0, meaning their stock prices are now less than the value of the Bitcoin or Ethereum they claim to hold. In plain terms, you could buy their shares, liquidate the company, and walk away with more crypto than the market is currently pricing in. That’s not a bargain, it’s a red flag waving violently in a hurricane.

 

Why is this happening? Because the model is breaking. Not bending. Breaking. And the cracks are spreading fast.

At the core of the rot is nonstop dilution. These companies rely heavily on At-The-Market (ATM) equity programs to raise capital. The idea was elegant in theory: when the stock trades above NAV, issue new shares, use the proceeds to buy more BTC or ETH, and watch the cycle compound. But in practice, it’s a self-cannibalizing machine. Every time they flood the market with new shares, Forward Industries, for instance, has an ATM program sized at $4 billion, the share price gets hammered by supply overload. This happens even as their crypto holdings grow. The result? A paradoxical situation where the company’s balance sheet strengthens while its equity valuation weakens. Retail investors, who bought in expecting to ride the coattails of Bitcoin’s rallies, are instead watching their holdings lag, or worse, decline, while BTC soars. Confidence evaporates. They exit. And that retail selling, combined with relentless dilution, creates a textbook death spiral: more shares issued, lower price per share, wider mNAV discount, more retail panic, even more pressure to raise capital via dilution. The gap between asset value and market perception doesn’t just widen; it yawns open like a fault line.

 

So what can these firms do? The options are grim, and none are sustainable without fundamental change.

One path is issuing high-yield preferred shares. On the surface, it sounds attractive: offer 8%, 10%, even 12% to lure yield-hungry investors back. But let’s be brutally honest, how does a company with no real revenue, no operating profits, and a stated mission to hold crypto forever generate the cash to pay that yield? The only liquid asset they have is the very Bitcoin or Ethereum they swore never to sell. To pay a dividend would be to betray their core thesis and signal desperation. It’s a non-starter.

Another idea is share buybacks. In normal markets, buybacks are a powerful tool to support valuation and signal confidence. But these companies don’t have cash reserves. They survive on new issuance. Their entire financial engine runs on selling equity to buy crypto. Where would the money for buybacks come from? It’s like trying to fill a bucket with a hole in the bottom using water from the same bucket. The math simply doesn’t work.

That leaves the nuclear option: direct redemptions. Allow shareholders to exchange their stock for the underlying BTC or ETH at NAV. This would instantly restore mNAV parity. No more discount. No more illusion. But this move would effectively transform these entities into exchange-traded funds. And that’s a regulatory line they cannot cross. The SEC has spent years carefully approving spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs under strict custody, transparency, and investor protection rules. A backdoor redemption mechanism would trigger immediate regulatory intervention, likely a halt in trading, enforcement actions, or forced restructuring. The moment they offer redemptions, they’re no longer a strategic treasury; they’re an unregistered investment company. The legal risk is existential.

This entire house of cards was built on a playbook pioneered by Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which raised $27 billion to accumulate Bitcoin. The market rewarded it with massive premiums because it was first, credible, and operated with a degree of transparency. But imitation is not innovation. Companies like Metaplanet in Japan tried to copy the model, and dozens more rushed in, believing the premium was a permanent feature, not a temporary anomaly of early-mover advantage and market euphoria. Now, as the arbitrage breaks, when the stock no longer reliably tracks or outperforms the underlying asset, the cycle ends. These firms weren’t Bitcoin treasuries. They were volatility wrappers. And every wrapper, no matter how shiny, eventually unwinds.

 

But the deeper, more troubling truth is how these companies are born and funded. This isn’t public finance as we know it. It’s a shadow system of corporate alchemy.

The creation process bypasses traditional IPO safeguards entirely. There are three dominant playbooks, all designed for speed and opacity. The first is the reverse merger: find a dying public shell, no revenue, few shareholders, trading on fumes, take control, rebrand, and emerge as a digital asset treasury. TRON did this with SRM Entertainment. Janover became DeFi Development Corp. overnight. The second is the SPAC route: merge with a special purpose acquisition company that’s already public, clean, and hungry for a deal. The third is the silent takeover: quietly buy 51% of a microcap stock from insiders or on the open market, stage a board coup, and pivot the company’s entire identity without a formal merger filing. Over 30 companies in 2025 alone have used one of these three models. The infrastructure is now industrialized. You don’t need a product, a team, or a track record. You just need legal control of a broken ticker and a compelling crypto narrative.

Funding follows the same pattern of opacity. These aren’t startups raising from VCs based on technology or traction. They’re capital markets machines built to convert stock price hype into crypto holdings. They use three high-speed mechanisms. First, PIPEs, Private Investment in Public Equity deals, where institutional insiders buy large blocks of stock at a steep discount, behind closed doors. TRON raised $100 million this way. Strive Asset Management pulled in $750 million. Forward Industries secured $1.65 billion for Solana plays alone. These aren’t seed rounds, they’re pre-arranged liquidity events for insiders.

Second, convertible notes: debt instruments that convert into equity if the stock price rises. GameStop raised $2.7 billion this way to buy Bitcoin. Nano Labs prepped $500 million for BNB. It’s debt disguised as equity, a ticking time bomb of future dilution that explodes the moment the stock rallies.

Third, ATM programs, which we’ve already discussed. The reflexive loop is clear: hype the narrative, stock trades above NAV, sell shares, buy crypto, re-hype, repeat. It’s a closed loop that works beautifully, until it doesn’t. And when it breaks, retail investors are left holding the bag.

This brings us to the most corrosive element of all: insider trading isn’t an exception in this space, it’s the operating model. Information leaks at every stage. Legal firms drafting merger documents. Exchanges prepping wallet integrations. Advisors whispering to favored funds. But the most egregious leaks happen during roadshows, the private investor meetings that precede public announcements. SharpLink’s stock was flat until day two of its roadshow. Then, it spiked 1,000% before the deal even closed. That’s not organic market discovery. That’s privileged information being weaponized. Insiders get in early, often for pennies, then dump on retail once the hype hits social media. This is the new digital IPO: no lockups, minimal disclosure, zero accountability.

I have seen cycles come and go, I’m deeply skeptical that this model survives another bull run. The structural flaws are too severe, the incentives too misaligned, the regulatory risks too high. The mNAV collapse is the market’s verdict: these wrappers add cost, risk, and opacity without delivering the promised premium. If mNAV stays below 1, the illusion is over. There’s no magic. No alchemy. Just underperforming shells trading at a discount to the very assets they’re supposed to represent.

To founders, traders, and investors: if you’re not asking who minted the company, who funded it in private, and who front-ran the announcement, you’re not an investor, you’re exit liquidity. And in this game, the house always wins. Until it doesn’t.

 

Source: https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/25/10/48273792/the-treasury-trap-how-crypto-backed-stocks-are-trading-below-their-own-assets

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j