Beyond the announcement: The ripple effects of liberation day on global assets

Beyond the announcement: The ripple effects of liberation day on global assets

I’m diving deep into the current market wrap, with a particular focus on the looming “Liberation Day” tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, set to take effect today, April 2, 2025. This pivotal moment has cast a long shadow over global risk sentiment, and it’s no surprise that investors, analysts, and everyday folks alike are on edge, waiting to see how this bold policy shift will ripple through economies and asset classes worldwide.

My perspective on this topic is one of cautious scepticism—while the intent behind these tariffs may be rooted in a desire to bolster American manufacturing and rebalance trade, the potential for unintended consequences, from inflation spikes to global trade wars, looms large. Let’s unpack this complex scenario with a thorough examination of the data, market reactions, and broader implications.

The White House has framed “Liberation Day” as a cornerstone of Trump’s economic vision—a decisive move to bring manufacturing jobs back to US soil and address long-standing trade imbalances with key partners like China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. The tariffs, which are being unveiled today, promise to be sweeping in scope, though the exact scale and country-specific details remain under wraps until the official announcement.

This uncertainty has fuelled a subdued global risk sentiment in the lead-up to the event, as markets grapple with the possibility of a seismic shift in trade dynamics. Economists and market watchers are particularly concerned about the potential for these tariffs to exacerbate inflationary pressures, disrupt supply chains, and dampen economic growth—not just in the US, but globally. My take? While the goal of revitalising American industry is laudable, the execution of such a broad and aggressive tariff regime could easily backfire, especially in an already fragile economic environment.

On the US economic front, recent data paints a troubling picture that only heightens these concerns. The March reading of the US ISM Manufacturing Index slipped into contractionary territory at 49.0, down from expectations of modest growth. This decline was driven by notable weakness in new orders and employment, two critical forward-looking indicators that suggest manufacturers are bracing for tougher times ahead. Even more alarming is the Prices Paid Index, which surged to its highest level since June 2022.

This spike signals that input costs are rising sharply—likely a direct result of tariff-related uncertainty and supply chain jitters. For me, this data underscores a key risk: the US economy may be heading toward stagflation, a toxic mix of stagnant growth and rising prices that could prove difficult for the Federal Reserve to navigate. The Fed, which began cutting rates in September 2024, might find its hands tied if inflation accelerates further, forcing a pivot back to tighter policy at a time when growth is already faltering.

The equity markets reflected this unease in yesterday’s volatile session. The S&P 500, a bellwether for US stocks, initially slid one per cent as investors digested the weak manufacturing data and fretted over the tariff fallout. However, a late-day rally in the technology sector—perhaps driven by bargain hunting or optimism about tech’s resilience—pushed the index into positive territory, closing up 0.4 per cent.

This recovery is a testament to the market’s ability to find silver linings, but I’m not convinced it signals a lasting reprieve. Historical trends cited by The Kobeissi Letter offer a sobering perspective: when the Fed cuts rates during a recession, the S&P 500 has typically declined six per cent within six months and 10 per cent within a year.

Given that the index is already down two per cent since rate cuts began last fall, we could be in for a rough ride if “Liberation Day” triggers a deeper economic slowdown. My view is that investors should remain cautious—yesterday’s tech-driven bounce feels more like a temporary breather than a sign of sustained confidence.

Bond markets, meanwhile, are telling their own story. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields dipped about 4 basis points to 4.17 per cent, hitting their lowest level since March 11. This decline suggests a flight to safety as investors seek refuge from equity volatility and economic uncertainty. The US Dollar Index, however, held steady at 104.26, showing little movement overnight. This stability might reflect a wait-and-see approach among currency traders, who are likely holding their breath until the tariff details emerge.

Gold, often a barometer of fear, edged down slightly to US$3,118.90 per ounce after hitting an all-time high of US$3,149 earlier this week. The fact that gold remains near record levels speaks volumes about the underlying anxiety in the market, even if it pulled back marginally yesterday. Brent crude, down 0.3 per cent to US$74.5 per barrel, also suggests a lack of fresh catalysts to drive oil prices higher, though tariff-induced disruptions to global trade could change that picture quickly.

Across the Atlantic, Europe offers a contrasting narrative that highlights the uneven impact of global economic pressures. The final March reading for the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6, still below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Yet, a bright spot emerged: output rose to 50.5, marking the first expansion in two years. This uptick suggests that European manufacturers might be finding their footing, perhaps buoyed by domestic demand or a weaker euro boosting exports.

Inflation, meanwhile, cooled to 2.2 per cent in March, its lowest since January 2022, bolstering expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates later this month. European equity indices broadly ended in the green yesterday, reflecting a degree of optimism that stands in stark contrast to the US’s tariff-driven angst.

From my perspective, this divergence underscores a critical point: while Trump’s tariffs aim to protect US interests, they could inadvertently hand a competitive edge to Europe, at least in the short term, by driving up costs for American firms and consumers.

In Asia, the mood is more mixed as markets brace for the tariff hammer to fall. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held interest rates steady at 4.1 per cent, as expected, and struck a neutral tone in its commentary. This decision reflects a balancing act—acknowledging global uncertainties like tariffs while keeping an eye on domestic inflation and growth. Asian equity indices showed a split performance in early trading today, with some markets holding up while others faltered.

The impending tariffs, now just hours away, are clearly weighing on sentiment, particularly for export-heavy economies like China, Japan, and South Korea. I suspect that Asia’s reaction will hinge heavily on the specifics of Trump’s announcement—targeted tariffs on China, for instance, could spark a sharper sell-off, while a broader, less discriminatory approach might spread the pain more evenly across the region.

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin and Ethereum offer a fascinating subplot amid this tariff-fueled uncertainty. Bitcoin has clawed its way back above US$84,000, posting a nearly two per cent gain in the past 24 hours after weeks of weakness that saw it struggle to breach US$89,000. This resilience is noteworthy, especially given the headwinds from global trade tensions and a risk-off mood among retail investors.

Institutional interest, however, remains robust—firms like Tether and Strategy are making nine- and ten-figure Bitcoin buys, and GoMining’s new US$100 million Bitcoin mining fund targets institutional players with a “fully managed, compounding hashrate strategy.” Yet, the price isn’t budging much, which suggests a disconnect between institutional accumulation and broader market sentiment.

My take? Bitcoin’s recovery is a sign of its growing status as a “digital gold” hedge, but it’s not immune to the macroeconomic storm brewing around “Liberation Day.” Technical analysis points to key resistance ahead at US$89,000—if it can’t break through, we might see another leg down.

Ethereum, meanwhile, has staged its own recovery, climbing above US$1,850 and consolidating around US$1,860. It’s trading above the 100-hourly simple moving average, with a bullish trend line forming at US$1,860 on the hourly chart. However, resistance looms near US$1,900 and US$1,920, and a failure to clear these levels could cap its upside.

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s fate is tied to broader market dynamics, and the tariff announcement could either bolster its safe-haven appeal or drag it down with risk assets. I see cryptocurrencies as a wild card in this scenario—capable of defying gravity if traditional markets falter, but vulnerable to a broader sell-off if recession fears take hold.

So, where does this leave us as “Liberation Day” dawns? Trump’s tariff gambit is a high-stakes roll of the dice. The intent—to reassert US economic dominance and revive manufacturing—has merit, but the execution risks sparking a global trade war, driving up inflation, and tipping an already wobbly US economy into recession. The data backs this up: manufacturing is contracting, input costs are soaring, and consumer confidence is cratering.

Markets are jittery, with equities volatile, yields falling, and gold near all-time highs. Europe might catch a break if it can capitalise on US missteps, but Asia faces a tougher road, especially if China bears the brunt of the tariffs. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, are a mixed bag—showing resilience but not invincibility.

For now, the markets are holding their breath too, and the next few days could set the tone for months to come. One thing’s for sure: we’re in for a wild ride.

 

Source: https://e27.co/beyond-the-announcement-the-ripple-effects-of-liberation-day-on-global-assets-20250402/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Market wrap: US equities muted amid tariff news, gold hits near record high, digital assets is the future

Market wrap: US equities muted amid tariff news, gold hits near record high, digital assets is the future

The economic landscape of the past week has been shaped by a complex interplay of policy announcements, market reactions, and strategic corporate moves, all set against a backdrop of global uncertainty. At the forefront of these developments was President Trump’s indication of imposing tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, potentially starting from April 2nd. This move, ostensibly aimed at encouraging foreign manufacturers to invest in US production facilities, could have profound implications, particularly for industries where international supply chains are deeply integrated.

The automobile sector, already navigating through the challenges of electrification and autonomous driving, now faces the added complexity of potential tariff hikes. For European carmakers like Volkswagen and BMW, and Asian giants like Toyota and Hyundai, the implications are stark. The tariffs could increase the cost of vehicles for US consumers, potentially dampening demand, or push these companies towards establishing or expanding manufacturing operations in the US This shift, while beneficial for local job creation, comes with its own set of challenges, including high setup costs, cultural integration, and the need for skilled labor. Moreover, the environmental impact of such a move could be significant, considering the carbon footprint associated with new production setups.

Despite these looming threats, US equity markets showed a tempered response. The MSCI US index managed a slight increase of 0.3 per cent, with gains predominantly in Energy and Materials sectors, suggesting perhaps an anticipation of benefits from increased domestic production or from sectors less directly impacted by the tariffs. However, this muted market reaction might also indicate a ‘wait-and-see’ approach from investors, expecting either negotiations or modifications to the tariff policy before its full implementation.

The Federal Reserve’s stance, as articulated by various officials, was to maintain current interest rates, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amidst these trade uncertainties. Yet, the market’s expectation for a rate cut by September, as priced into futures, shows an underlying belief that the Fed might eventually need to counteract any adverse economic effects of these tariffs, like inflation or a slowdown in consumer spending. This is mirrored by a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.55 per cent, suggesting a market adjusting to new realities of potentially higher inflation or a stronger dollar, which indeed rose by 0.5 per cent to above 107.

Gold’s steady hold near record highs, with a 1.4 per cent increase, underscores the market’s search for safety amid these geopolitical and trade tensions. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil’s recovery after OPEC+’s suggestion to delay supply increases could signal a tighter oil market, which might benefit energy companies but also stir inflation concerns.

In Asia, the economic narrative was somewhat divergent. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate cut to 4.10 per cent was a move to stimulate an economy facing external pressures, yet it came with warnings against expecting too much from further monetary easing. In China, the decline in the CSI300 index by 0.9 per cent reflected ongoing concerns about economic stability and the impact of US trade policies. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index’s initial gains fizzled out, pointing to a cautious optimism regarding government support for the private sector.

Turning to the digital economy, significant movements are afoot in the cryptocurrency space. Robinhood Markets’ planned expansion into Singapore through Bitstamp, an exchange it acquired for US$200 million, highlights a strategic push into Asia’s burgeoning crypto market. This move not only aims at leveraging Bitstamp’s regulatory and institutional strengths but also reflects a broader trend of integrating cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance, albeit with careful consideration of regulatory landscapes.

Hong Kong’s proactive stance on digital assets was vividly illustrated at the Coindesk Consensus Hong Kong 2025 conference, where the CEO of the Securities and Futures Commission, Julia Leung, outlined plans for new crypto products like derivatives and margin lending. This aligns with Hong Kong’s ambition to become a leading center for digital assets, especially post the 2021 crypto ban in mainland China. The issuance of nine digital asset trading licenses, with more applications in review, and the drafting of stablecoin regulations, all point towards a strategic pivot to capitalise on the global crypto boom.

From my perspective, these developments are indicative of a world where traditional economic structures are being challenged by new policies and technological advancements. The potential tariffs could lead to a reconfiguration of global supply chains, impacting not just trade but also environmental and employment policies. The Fed’s cautious approach to interest rates reflects a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and controlling inflation. Meanwhile, the rise of digital assets in regulated markets like Hong Kong and Singapore signifies a shift towards a more tech-driven financial ecosystem, where regulation will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics.

This economic juncture requires companies and investors to be agile, adapting not just to policy changes but also to technological innovations. The interplay between these economic, regulatory, and technological shifts will continue to define the strategies and fortunes of businesses worldwide, making this a critical time for strategic foresight and adaptability.

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-us-equities-muted-amid-tariff-news-gold-hits-near-record-high-digital-assets-is-the-future-20250219/

 

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Crypto Cyber Resilience in 2024: Strategies for safeguarding crypto assets

Crypto Cyber Resilience in 2024: Strategies for safeguarding crypto assets

With digital assets becoming a bigger player in the global economy, everyone’s buzzing about “crypto cyber resilience.” It’s no surprise – 2024 has seen some seriously high-tech hacks, phishing attacks, and other cyber threats targeting cryptocurrency. This article dives into the current state of crypto security. We’ll explore what companies and individuals can do to protect their digital treasures, and how to build strong defenses against these ever-evolving cyber attacks. We’ll also compare these challenges to the Wild West days of fintech, highlighting how the threats and solutions have transformed alongside the crypto landscape.

The Current State of Crypto Cyber Resilience

Cryptocurrency, while promising unprecedented financial opportunities, has also introduced a host of new vulnerabilities. According to Chainalysis, cryptocurrency-related crime hit an all-time high in 2022, with illicit addresses receiving $14 billion worth of cryptocurrencies. This figure underscores the critical need for robust security measures in the crypto space.

In 2024, the landscape of crypto cyber resilience is defined by an ongoing arms race between cybersecurity experts and cyber criminals. The rise of decentralised finance (DeFi) platforms has particularly exacerbated the issue. These platforms, while democratizing access to financial services, have also become prime targets for hackers. For instance, in 2022, the DeFi sector saw a staggering $53.5 billion in losses due to hacks and exploits, as reported by IntoTheBlock

What Companies Should Do to Enhance Crypto Cyber Resilience

  1. Implement Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA): One of the fundamental steps companies can take is to enforce multi-factor authentication (MFA). MFA adds an extra layer of security by requiring users to provide two or more verification factors to gain access to their accounts. This significantly reduces the risk of unauthorised access, as attackers would need to compromise multiple forms of authentication.
  2. Adopt Cold Storage Solutions: Storing the majority of crypto assets in cold storage, which is offline storage, can drastically reduce the risk of theft. Unlike hot wallets, which are connected to the internet and hence more vulnerable to hacks, cold wallets are immune to online attacks.
  3. Regular Security Audits and Penetration Testing: Regular security audits and penetration testing are crucial in identifying and mitigating vulnerabilities. Companies should engage with cybersecurity firms to conduct thorough assessments of their systems and rectify any weaknesses. This proactive approach helps in staying ahead of potential threats.
  4. Educate Employees and Users: Human error remains one of the biggest threats to cybersecurity. Companies must invest in comprehensive training programs to educate employees and users about phishing, social engineering attacks, and safe practices for handling crypto assets. Knowledgeable users are less likely to fall victim to scams.
  5. Implement Robust Incident Response Plans: Having a well-defined incident response plan is essential for minimising the impact of a cyber attack. This plan should include steps for immediate containment, eradication of the threat, and recovery of affected systems. It should also outline communication strategies to inform stakeholders and mitigate reputational damage.
  6. Leverage Advanced Cryptographic Techniques: Employing advanced cryptographic techniques such as zero-knowledge proofs and homomorphic encryption can enhance data privacy and security. These techniques allow for the verification of transactions and computations without exposing sensitive data.


Preventing Hacks, Phishing, and Other Cyber Threats

The prevention of cyber threats in the crypto space requires a multi-faceted approach that addresses both technological and human factors. Here are some strategies:

  1. Strengthen Network Security: Ensuring that network infrastructure is secure is paramount. This includes using firewalls, intrusion detection systems, and regular monitoring to detect and block suspicious activities. Network segmentation can also help contain breaches and prevent them from spreading.
  2. Employ Blockchain AnalyticsBlockchain analytics tools can help track and analyse transactions across the blockchain. These tools are valuable in identifying suspicious patterns and potentially fraudulent activities. Companies like Chainalysis and Elliptic offer services that provide insights into the flow of funds and help in tracing the origins of illicit transactions.
  3. Use Smart Contract Auditing: Smart contracts are the backbone of many DeFi platforms, and their security is critical. Regular auditing of smart contracts by specialized firms can identify vulnerabilities and ensure that they function as intended. This reduces the risk of exploits that could lead to significant financial losses.
  4. Promote User Awareness: User awareness campaigns can educate investors and users about common phishing tactics and how to avoid them. Encouraging the use of hardware wallets, which require physical confirmation for transactions, can also add an extra layer of security.
  5. Adopt Decentralised Security Measures: Decentralised security measures, such as decentralised autonomous organisations (DAOs) for security, can leverage the collective intelligence of the community to identify and mitigate threats. This collaborative approach can be more effective than traditional centralised security models.


Comparing Crypto Cyber Resilience to Fintech Security

The fintech era, which saw the rise of digital banking and online financial services, laid much of the groundwork for current cybersecurity practices. However, there are distinct differences between the security needs of traditional fintech and the current crypto landscape:

  1. Centralisation vs. Decentralisation: Traditional fintech services are typically centralised, with security measures focused on protecting centralised servers and databases. In contrast, cryptocurrencies operate on decentralised networks, such as blockchain, where security must be distributed across all nodes. This decentralisation presents unique challenges and requires innovative security solutions.
  2. Regulatory Frameworks: The regulatory frameworks governing traditional financial institutions are well-established and comprehensive. Cryptocurrencies, however, exist in a relatively nascent regulatory environment. While regulations like the EU Cyber Resilience Act are emerging, there is still a lack of uniformity and clarity in many jurisdictions, making it harder to establish standardised security protocols.
  3. Nature of Assets: Traditional financial assets are often backed by physical or legal guarantees (e.g., government bonds, insurance). Cryptocurrencies, being purely digital, lack these tangible assurances. This intangibility makes them more susceptible to cyber threats, emphasising the need for robust digital security measures.
  4. Evolving Threat Landscape: The threat landscape in the fintech era was largely confined to phishing attacks, malware, and hacking attempts aimed at centralised systems. In the crypto world, the rise of quantum computing poses a significant threat to cryptographic algorithms that underpin digital currencies. Additionally, the anonymity and irreversibility of cryptocurrency transactions make them attractive targets for cybercriminals.


Conclusion: Building a Resilient Future for Crypto

The future of cryptocurrency hinges on the industry’s ability to build robust cyber resilience. As the crypto market continues to grow, so too does the incentive for cybercriminals to exploit vulnerabilities. Companies must adopt a holistic approach to security, integrating advanced technologies, rigorous protocols, and comprehensive user education.

To survive, the industry needs to build a fortress around security, with cutting-edge tech, bulletproof protocols, and everyone on the same page about staying safe.

Here’s the good news: companies can seriously toughen their defenses by using double-verification logins (multi-factor authentication), keeping most crypto offline in secure storage (cold storage), and having regular security checkups (audits). Plus, educating users about crypto scams is like giving them a shield against online attacks.

But that’s not all. Crypto needs its own special security suit, not just hand-me-downs from the traditional finance world (fintech). Decentralised security measures and keeping up with new regulations are crucial for navigating this ever-changing landscape.

Here’s the key: everyone needs to work together. Companies, cybersecurity experts, and even regulators need to join forces to build a strong defense around the entire crypto ecosystem. By working as a team, we can make sure the exciting potential of crypto isn’t overshadowed by cyber threats.

 

Source: https://ciosea.economictimes.indiatimes.com/blog/crypto-cyber-resilience-in-2024-strategies-for-safeguarding-crypto-assets/111074132

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j