Trade War tensions escalate: How China’s jet ban and Bitcoin slips as supply outpaces demand

Trade War tensions escalate: How China’s jet ban and Bitcoin slips as supply outpaces demand

The global financial markets are navigating a turbulent landscape as of April 16, with risk sentiment taking a noticeable hit due to escalating trade tensions and mixed economic signals. I see a complex interplay of geopolitical manoeuvring, economic data, and market dynamics shaping investor behaviour. My perspective is that while short-term volatility is likely to persist, driven by trade war escalations and policy uncertainties, there are pockets of resilience and opportunity for those who can navigate the noise with discipline and foresight. The current environment underscores the importance of diversification, safe-haven assets, and a keen eye on macroeconomic indicators to weather the storm.

The ongoing tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China continues to dominate headlines and rattle markets. Reports that China has instructed its airlines to halt further deliveries from a major US jet manufacturer signal a deepening of retaliatory measures. This move is not just a symbolic gesture; it directly impacts a key American industry and could disrupt global supply chains in aviation, a sector already strained by post-pandemic recovery challenges.

The decision comes as part of a broader escalation, with China recently raising tariffs by up to 125 per cent on select US products in response to US tariffs announced earlier this month. These developments have contributed to a sharp decline in Wall Street, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropping 4.3 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively, in recent sessions. The MSCI U.S. index, down 1.2 per cent on April 15, reflects this pressure, particularly in sectors such as Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare, both of which shed 0.7 per cent. The trade war’s ripple effects are clear: uncertainty is eroding investor confidence, and companies exposed to international markets are bearing the brunt.

Across the Atlantic, the lack of progress in EU-US trade negotiations adds another layer of complexity. Despite hopes for a thaw in transatlantic relations, the talks have stalled, raising concerns about potential new tariffs or retaliatory measures from the European Union. This stagnation is particularly troubling given the EU’s economic challenges, including sluggish growth in Germany and fiscal pressures in France. The failure to reach a deal could exacerbate global trade fragmentation, forcing companies to rethink supply chains and pricing strategies.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s probe into tariffs on critical minerals introduces further uncertainty. Critical minerals, essential for technologies such as electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy systems, are already subject to supply chain vulnerabilities due to China’s dominance in processing. A US tariff on these materials could drive up costs for domestic manufacturers while potentially failing to reduce reliance on foreign supplies, as seen in past trade policies that misfired, like the copper tariffs criticised by analysts for their unintended economic blowback.

The technology sector, a cornerstone of global markets, is also feeling the heat. Nvidia’s six per cent drop in late trading on April 15, following US export restrictions on its H20 chips to China and Hong Kong, underscores the vulnerability of tech giants to geopolitical risks. These restrictions, imposed indefinitely, are a significant blow to Nvidia, which has relied on the Chinese market for a substantial portion of its revenue.

The broader implications for the semiconductor industry are concerning, as tit-for-tat measures could disrupt innovation and profitability across the sector. Asian equity indices, already under pressure from deteriorating trade relations, opened lower this morning, reflecting the market’s unease with these developments. The tech sector’s woes highlight a broader truth: in a globalised economy, no industry is immune to the fallout of trade wars.

Amid this gloom, there are glimmers of resilience. The US Financials sector, up 0.3 per cent, has held up well, buoyed by strong earnings from major banks as the first-quarter reporting season gains momentum. Positive earnings suggest that banks are navigating higher interest rates and economic uncertainty with relative ease, providing a stabilising force for markets. Across the pond, UK indices have been a bright spot, with the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 gaining 1.4 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively. The prospect of a US-UK trade deal, hinted at in recent discussions, has fueled optimism, as such an agreement could shield the UK from the worst of the global trade storm. However, I remain cautious about over-optimism here; trade deals are notoriously complex, and the UK’s exposure to EU markets means it’s not entirely insulated from broader trade tensions.

The bond market offers another lens into investor sentiment. US Treasuries saw a reprieve on April 15, with the 10-year Treasury yield slipping three basis points to 4.33 per cent after a period of volatility. The two-year yield, however, ticked up slightly to 3.84 per cent, reflecting mixed expectations about Federal Reserve policy. Investors piling into Treasuries as a safe haven have driven yields lower in recent days, a trend that aligns with fears of a trade-war-induced recession. JPMorgan’s recent increase in recession odds to 60 per cent from 40 per cent underscores this concern, as analysts warn that sustained tariffs could tip the U.S. and global economies into contraction. The US Dollar Index’s 0.5 per cent gain, snapping a five-day losing streak, suggests some resilience in the greenback, likely driven by its safe-haven status. Gold, up 0.7 per cent, continues to benefit from this flight to safety, with prices holding near record highs. Brent crude, however, slid to US$61 per barrel, weighed down by the International Energy Agency’s downgraded oil demand forecast and the broader impact of trade tensions on global growth.

China’s economic data provides a counterpoint to the prevailing pessimism. First-quarter GDP growth of 5.4 per cent and stronger-than-expected March activity data beat forecasts, signaling that Beijing’s stimulus measures are gaining traction. Market participants anticipate further policy easing and fiscal expansion to counter the drag from US tariffs, which could stabilize China’s economy in the near term. However, the beat hasn’t translated into broader market optimism, as Asian equities remain under pressure.

This disconnect suggests that trade war fears are overshadowing positive economic signals, a dynamic that could persist unless there’s a de-escalation in US-China relations.

The cryptocurrency market, often seen as a barometer of speculative sentiment, is also grappling with challenges. Bitcoin’s price, at US$67,420 on April 16, is down slightly from US$67,800, with trading volume dropping 10 per cent in the last 24 hours.

Ki Young Ju’s observation that Bitcoin supply is outpacing demand, backed by on-chain data, points to a bearish tilt. The formation of a “death cross” in Bitcoin’s technical indicators—where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average—further signals potential downside. Ethereum, trading at US$1,603, is similarly under pressure, with its RSI at 44.34 and MACD indicating lingering bearish momentum. The broader crypto market’s struggles reflect a flight from riskier assets, exacerbated by the repeal of DeFi regulations, which has paradoxically triggered outflows rather than inflows. The shift of capital to Layer-2 solutions and other blockchains suggests that Ethereum’s dominance in decentralized finance is waning, adding to its price woes.

From my vantage point, the current market environment is a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global economies. Trade wars, once thought to be blunt but manageable tools, are proving to have far-reaching consequences, from aviation to technology to commodities. Investors are right to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries, but they should also remain vigilant for opportunities in resilient sectors such as Financials or regions such as the UK, where trade deal prospects offer a glimmer of hope. The cryptocurrency market’s struggles highlight the broader risk-off sentiment, but disciplined traders could find short-term opportunities in Bitcoin and Ethereum if technical indicators signal a reversal.

Looking ahead, the path forward hinges on policy decisions. A de-escalation in US-China trade tensions or progress in EU-US talks could restore confidence, but the Trump administration’s aggressive stance suggests more volatility lies ahead. The Federal Reserve, caught between inflationary pressures from tariffs and recession risks, faces a delicate balancing act.

My advice to investors is to stay diversified, monitor macroeconomic data like the Empire State Manufacturing Survey—which, despite improvement, still signals contraction—and keep a close eye on earnings reports for clues about corporate resilience. The markets are testing our patience, but with careful navigation, there’s still room to find value amidst the chaos.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/trade-war-tensions-escalate-how-chinas-jet-ban-and-bitcoin-slips-as-supply-outpaces-demand-20250416/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Trump’s CBDC ban to boost crypto adoption, Musk’s dad plans $200M memecoin raise: Finance Redefined

Trump’s CBDC ban to boost crypto adoption, Musk’s dad plans $200M memecoin raise: Finance Redefined

US President Donald Trump’s latest executive order may bolster institutional cryptocurrency adoption, as his ban on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) signals a “bet” on the existing crypto ecosystem, industry watchers told Cointelegraph.

Capitalizing on the recent success of the Trump family’s memecoins, Elon Musk’s father seeks to raise up to $200 million from a meme token already launched at the end of December.

Trump’s executive order a “game-changer” for institutional crypto adoption

Trump’s executive order banning the creation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in the United States may mark a significant shift in institutional cryptocurrency adoption, according to industry executives.

The executive order, signed Jan. 23, prohibits the establishment, issuance, circulation or use of CBDCs, citing concerns over their potential to threaten financial system stability, individual privacy and national sovereignty.

The executive order’s CBDC ban is a “game-changer” for the crypto industry in the US, according to Anndy Lian, an author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser.

Likewise, Trump’s new crypto task force signals a clearer, “more structured” crypto regulatory landscape, Lian told Cointelegraph.

Elon Musk’s dad plans $200M raise with “Musk It” memecoin

Elon Musk’s father may be the next influential figure to raise funds through a memecoin amid growing interest in celebrity-backed meme tokens.

Retail investor interest returned to memecoins after President Donald Trump launched the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin on Jan. 18, followed by the Official Melania (MELANIA) token on Jan. 19 on the Solana network.

Joining the ranks, Elon Musk’s father, Errol Musk, is reportedly looking to launch his own memecoin token project called Musk It (MUSKIT).

Musk’s father hopes to raise as much as $200 million from the memecoin project, which he plans to use to support a for-profit think tank called the Musk Institute, he told Fortune.

Crypto mobile wallets hit 36M record high amid growing retail adoption

Mobile cryptocurrency users have reached a new all-time high, as Increasingly more passive cryptocurrency holders are turning into active users, showcasing growing mainstream adoption.

Mobile cryptocurrency wallets reached a new all-time high of over 36 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Coinbase’s quarterly crypto market report published on Jan. 29.

“Mobile wallets can play a critical role in turning passive crypto owners into active crypto users,” wrote Daren Matsuoka, data scientist at a16z Crypto.

While crypto owners only hold digital assets passively, they are considered cryptocurrency users after actively interacting with decentralized finance (DeFi) or other blockchain-based applications.

Crypto hacks drop 44% YoY in January, CeFi top target with $69M loss

Cryptocurrency hackers continue stealing user funds, but cybertheft in January was less than in the year-earlier period, flashing a positive sign for the crypto industry.

Crypto hackers stole over $73 million of digital assets across 19 incidents in January, marking a 44% decrease from $133 million in January 2024.

Still, January’s $73 million was a ninefold month-over-month increase from December, when hackers only stole $3.8 million worth of cryptocurrency, according to a Jan. 30 Immunefi report shared with Cointelegraph.

The attack on Singapore-based crypto exchange Phemex was the biggest hit, accounting for over $69 million worth of stolen value, while the $2.5 million hack on Moby Trade options platform was second.

Ethereum price may stick below $3.5K until these 3 things happen

Ether price fell below $3,500 on Jan. 7 and has since struggled to trade above that level. The altcoin has declined by 8% over the past 30 days, while the broader cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 6%. This underperformance is concerning for Ether investors, especially with the launch of the spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in July 2024.

Traders’ disappointment comes after a period of average Ethereum transaction fees exceeding $2, steady growth in the ETH supply, significant criticism regarding the lack of support from the Ethereum Foundation and memecoin trading shifting to competitor blockchains, particularly Solana.

Three factors could potentially push Ether above $3,500, although some depend on external elements such as regulatory changes.

These include Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade in the first quarter of 2025, proposed changes in United States ETF regulations and the continued growth of Ethereum layer-2 solutions.

DeFi market overview

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the red.

The Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) token was the week’s biggest loser in the top 100, falling over 44%, followed by Solana-based memecoin Fartcoin (FARTCOIN), down nearly 30% on the weekly chart.

 

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-cbdc-ban-boost-crypto-adoption-musk-dad-200-m-memecoin-raise-finance-redefined

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j

Bitcoin Has Died Nearly 500 Times as Bear Market Bottom Signals End of Crypto

Bitcoin Has Died Nearly 500 Times as Bear Market Bottom Signals End of Crypto
  • Bitcoin has been declared dead 465+ times from 2010
  • Over 124 articles claimed crypto was dead in 2017.
  • The first such claim was made in 2010 by the Underground Economist when Bitcoin was trading at $0.23.

Renowned Indian Author Chetan Bhagat wrote a column declaring that crypto is dead. Is it the sign at the bottom?

The article from the well-known author Chetan Bhagat focuses on how crypto is dead due to the collapse of FTX. He expressed his strong anti-crypto opinion stating that crypto is like communism which promises decentralization but ultimately leads to power in the hands of a select few.

Bitcoin declared dead 465 times.

Bitcoin has been declared dead 465+ times, according to a page in 99Bitcoins, that counts the total reported Bitcoin obituaries. The Underground Economist made the first such report with the title, “Why Bitcoin can’t be a currency,” when the price of Bitcoin was $0.23. The article is no longer live today.

Satoshi Stacker, a well-known crypto analyst, predicted that as more and more people hear about the damage caused by FTX, there will be more reporting on “Crypto is Dead.”

Is the bottom in?

The crypto community believes that such articles are a signal for the bottom. Usually, during the market bottom, the FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) is at its peak. The frequency of articles claiming the death of crypto increases. The chart below shows that most articles with bearish sentiment were written when the market was preparing for a rally in Nov 2013.

Bitcoin bottom
Source: 99Bitcoins

Similarly, 93 obituaries were reported when the market bottomed in 2018. In 2020 various reports claimed Bitcoin was worthless, dead, and rat poison. The exception to this was in 2017 when over 124 articles were written declaring crypto dead due to multiple bans on crypto exchanges, Initial Coin Offering (ICOs) in China.

 

 

Source: https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-has-died-nearly-500-times-as-bear-market-bottom-signals-end-of-crypto/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j