February 23rd, 2026

5 crypto events that will make or break 2026: What investors must know before April

The second quarter of 2026 marks a defining moment for digital assets, as regulatory milestones and macroeconomic shifts converge to reshape the crypto landscape. As someone who has navigated this industry for over fifteen years and advised governments on blockchain policy, I see these upcoming events not as isolated developments but as interconnected forces that will determine whether crypto matures into a legitimate pillar of global finance or remains trapped in regulatory limbo.

The period between late March and early July presents five catalysts that demand close attention, each carrying the potential to unlock capital, clarify rules, or alter the monetary conditions that underpin risk asset performance. Understanding how these events interact requires looking beyond headlines to the structural changes they introduce for investors, builders, and policymakers alike.

The CLARITY Act (April 3, 2026)

Industry leaders anticipate President Trump could sign the CLARITY Act by April 3, 2026, a move that would finally delineate regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC. This legislation matters because legal ambiguity has long stifled innovation in the world’s largest capital market.

When projects face uncertain enforcement actions rather than clear compliance pathways, talent and capital migrate elsewhere. The passage would reduce legal risks for US-based crypto initiatives and signal to traditional finance that digital assets operate under a predictable framework.

I have long argued that regulation should enable rather than constrain technological progress, and this bill represents a step toward that balance. Reduced uncertainty often precedes capital deployment, so we could see accelerated institutional participation once the rules of engagement become transparent. Projects that previously hesitated to launch in the United States may now proceed, knowing which agency oversees their token structure and what disclosures they must provide.

SEC Crypto ETF Decisions (March 27, 2026)

Just one week earlier, on March 27, 2026, the SEC must issue final decisions on 91 pending crypto ETF applications spanning 24 tokens. Analysts expect verdicts to arrive sooner, given the perceived friendlier regulatory stance, but the deadline itself creates a hard boundary for market expectations.

Approval of altcoin ETFs, such as those tracking Solana or XRP, would replicate the institutional access wave that Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs initiated. These products serve as regulated conduits for pension funds, endowments, and registered investment advisors who cannot directly hold digital assets.

The scale of potential inflows remains substantial, and I view this as a critical test of whether US regulators will allow market demand to shape product availability. Institutional capital moves deliberately, but once allocated, it tends to remain invested, providing a stabilising influence on volatile markets. The applications represent diverse strategies and underlying assets, meaning approvals could broaden exposure beyond the largest cryptocurrencies and introduce investors to protocols with different risk and return profiles.

Tax-Advantaged Crypto ETNs (April 6, 2026)

The United Kingdom takes a different approach, allowing crypto exchange-traded notes to be held in tax-advantaged accounts starting April 6, 2026. This policy change qualifies these instruments for Individual Savings Accounts and self-invested personal pensions, granting millions of retail investors and pension funds a familiar wrapper for crypto exposure.

The significance lies in the stickiness of this capital. Retirement savings and tax-efficient accounts typically exhibit lower turnover than speculative trading capital, potentially reducing volatility over time. From my perspective, this move demonstrates how progressive regulation can expand access without compromising investor protections.

The UK framework may attract global crypto firms seeking a clear European base, especially as other jurisdictions grapple with more fragmented rules. Millions of UK residents now have a straightforward way to allocate a portion of their long-term savings to digital assets, and pension fund managers have a compliant vehicle to explore this emerging asset class within their fiduciary mandates.

Federal Reserve Leadership Transition (May 15, 2026)

Monetary policy leadership also shifts in May 2026 when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15. The nomination process that follows could usher in a more dovish approach to interest rates and balance sheet management.

History shows that easier monetary conditions boost liquidity for risk assets, and crypto has consistently correlated with periods of expanding money supply. A new chair selected by President Trump might prioritise growth-oriented policies, which would indirectly support digital asset valuations. I monitor these macro signals closely because crypto does not exist in a vacuum.

Global liquidity conditions often outweigh project-specific developments in driving price action, making the Fed chair transition a pivotal variable for the second half of 2026. A shift toward lower rates or faster balance sheet expansion would increase the pool of capital seeking yield, and digital assets often benefit when investors search for returns beyond traditional fixed income.

MiCA Implementation Deadline (July 1, 2026)

Finally, the European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets regulation comes into full effect on July 1, 2026, requiring all crypto firms operating in the bloc to meet comprehensive compliance standards. MiCA creates a regulatory passport that allows approved entities to serve customers across all member states, but it also raises operational costs and may force smaller projects to exit the market. This consolidation could strengthen the remaining players while enhancing consumer trust through standardised disclosures and reserve requirements.

Having studied regulatory frameworks globally, I recognise that MiCA’s rigour may initially slow innovation but ultimately lend credibility to the sector. Firms that adapt early will gain competitive advantages in the world’s largest single market, while those that resist may find their access limited. The July 1 deadline creates a clear timeline for compliance investments, and companies that treat this as a strategic priority rather than a bureaucratic hurdle will position themselves for long-term growth.

Among these catalysts, the Federal Reserve leadership transition stands out as the most immediate market-moving factor, as it directly influences global liquidity that underpins all risk assets. The interplay between these events will define crypto’s trajectory through 2026 and beyond, rewarding those who understand both its technical and macroeconomic dimensions. Investors who track regulatory deadlines alongside central bank communications will gain an edge in anticipating capital flows and positioning portfolios for the next phase of digital asset adoption.

Source: https://e27.co/5-crypto-events-that-will-make-or-break-2026-what-investors-must-know-before-april-20260223/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

November 26th, 2025

December’s make-or-break moment for crypto’s liquidity crisis

Equities and fixed income have rallied on mounting confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its December FOMC meeting. This expectation is reinforced not only by softening consumption data and declining consumer confidence but also by the accelerating political momentum behind Kevin Hassett as the leading candidate to assume the Fed chairmanship. Markets interpret Hassett’s likely appointment as a signal of a more responsive, disinflation-conscious policy framework, thereby pricing in an earlier and potentially deeper easing cycle than previously anticipated.

This macro recalibration is evident across multiple asset classes. US Treasury yields have declined modestly yet meaningfully, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.004 per cent, reflecting a repricing of terminal rate expectations. Concurrently, the US dollar has weakened, providing tailwinds for Asian currencies, which have strengthened amid a narrowing interest rate differential between the US and regional central banks, stable onshore Chinese liquidity conditions, and reduced geopolitical friction following the Xi-Trump dialogue. Chinese equities, particularly in the technology and AI sectors, have rallied in response, indicating that risk capital is already rotating toward markets perceived to offer both valuation support and policy tailwinds.

Despite this broad-based improvement in traditional risk sentiment, digital asset markets remain entrenched in a state of acute pessimism. The CMC Fear and Greed Index stands at 15 out of 100, categorically Extreme Fear, unchanged over the past 24 hours and only marginally above its yearly nadir of 10 recorded on November 22. This persistent fear is notable not for its intensity alone but for its durability in the face of improving macro fundamentals elsewhere.

The total crypto market capitalisation of 3.03 trillion dollars remains below both its 7-day 2.97 trillion dollars and 30-day 3.34 trillion dollars simple moving averages, confirming a technically bearish posture. The 14-day Relative Strength Index has plunged to 27.4, the lowest level since April 2025, signalling exhaustion in the prevailing downtrend. Historical precedent suggests that such oversold conditions, particularly when coinciding with shifts in macro liquidity, often precede short-term mean-reversion rallies.

Complicating the interpretation of this dislocation is the anomalous behaviour in crypto derivatives markets. Over the past 24 hours, perpetual futures volume surged 25.5 per cent to 1.3 trillion dollars, while spot volume contracted by 14.1 per cent to 268 billion dollars. This divergence typically indicates heightened speculative activity absent genuine conviction in directional price movement.

Supporting this interpretation, open interest in perpetual contracts declined by 1.89 per cent to 785 billion dollars, and funding rates collapsed by over 5,000 per cent to a negligible 0.0013 per cent. These metrics collectively suggest that traders are engaging in low-leverage, short-duration positioning rather than establishing sustained long or short exposure. The derivatives market is active, but it is not committed.

The central constraint on crypto market performance remains liquidity. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of 28 billion dollars this month, draining a critical source of structural demand precisely when macro liquidity conditions are most fragile. Until these flows stabilise or reverse, or until the Federal Reserve explicitly shifts to a more accommodative stance, crypto markets are likely to remain range-bound and sentiment-constrained.

The three trillion dollar market cap threshold has emerged as a key psychological and technical support level. A sustained breach below this mark could trigger algorithmic and leveraged liquidations, exacerbating downside pressure. A hold above this floor in conjunction with a dovish Fed decision could catalyse a significant liquidity-driven relief rally.

Kevin Hassett’s emergence as the presumptive next Fed Chair amplifies the probability of such an outcome. As Director of the National Economic Council since early 2025, Hassett has consistently advocated for a monetary policy that responds proactively to weakening demand indicators. His potential leadership signals a pivot toward a more traditional Taylor-rule-oriented framework, which would likely accelerate the pace of rate cuts in the event of further softening in labour or consumption data. For digital asset markets, which historically exhibit high beta to shifts in global liquidity conditions, this scenario represents a pivotal inflexion point.

In conclusion, the current market environment reflects a transitional regime characterised by divergent sentiment across asset classes. Traditional markets have already priced in near-term Fed easing, supported by both data and institutional expectations. Crypto markets, by contrast, remain mired in extreme fear despite being technically oversold and exhibiting heightened but uncommitted speculative activity. The critical variable bridging this gap is liquidity, which hinges on two near-term catalysts: the Fed’s December policy decision and the trajectory of Bitcoin ETF flows.

Should the Fed deliver a dovish pivot, particularly under Hassett’s anticipated stewardship, it would likely resolve the current sentiment dislocation and re-anchor crypto valuations to a more favourable macro liquidity regime. Until then, tactical positioning should emphasise monitoring these liquidity signals rather than assuming directional conviction.

Source: https://e27.co/decembers-make-or-break-moment-for-cryptos-liquidity-crisis-20251126/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

October 24th, 2025

CPI countdown: How Friday’s inflation data could make or break the crypto rally

Recent market movements reflect a cautious optimism that hinges on several interlocking variables, none more pivotal than the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. With core CPI projected to rise 0.3 per cent month-over-month, marking the third consecutive month at that pace, and annual core inflation holding steady at 3.1 per cent, investors are navigating a narrow corridor between hope for monetary easing and fear of persistent price pressures. This tension is evident across both traditional and digital markets, where risk appetite has improved but remains fragile.

Equity markets responded positively to signals of thawing US-China relations, as the White House confirmed that former President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his Asia tour. Though Trump is not currently in office, the symbolic weight of such a meeting, combined with broader expectations of de-escalation in trade tensions, lifted sentiment.

US equities posted gains across the board on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 0.31 per cent, the S&P 500 up 0.58 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite leading the charge with a 0.89 per cent advance, driven largely by technology stocks. This tech-led rally underscores a persistent dynamic. Bitcoin and other risk assets continue to trade in close correlation with the Nasdaq-100, currently exhibiting a 0.61 correlation coefficient. As such, any volatility in the tech sector will likely spill over into crypto markets.

Simultaneously, Treasury yields moved higher in anticipation of Friday’s CPI release. The 10-year yield rose by 5.2 basis points to 4.001 per cent, while the 2-year yield climbed 4.4 basis points to 3.489 per cent. These moves reflect investors recalibrating their expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Markets now assign a 98.3 per cent probability to a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, a dramatic shift fuelled partly by the delayed CPI report and partly by perceived regulatory leniency.

Reports circulated that Trump pardoned Changpeng Zhao, the founder of Binance. While the veracity of that pardon claim warrants scrutiny given Trump’s current non-presidential status, the market interpreted it as a signal of reduced regulatory hostility toward major crypto players. This perception alone has been enough to ease anxiety and encourage capital deployment.

The US Dollar Index edged up marginally to 98.936, a modest gain of 0.04 per cent, while gold rose 0.68 per cent to US$4,126.28 per ounce, a notable level that reflects both safe-haven demand and inflation hedging ahead of the CPI print. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged 5.4 per cent to US$65.99 per barrel following the enforcement of US sanctions on leading Russian oil firms, adding another layer of macro uncertainty through potential energy price volatility.

Within the crypto sphere, the past 24 hours saw a 1.96 per cent increase in total market capitalisation, extending a weekly gain of 1.44 per cent. Despite this momentum, the market remains 3.87 per cent below its 30-day high, suggesting that while sentiment has stabilised, full bullish conviction has yet to return. Three primary forces are driving this rebound. Binance’s reinforced market dominance, improving macro conditions, and renewed excitement around decentralised finance innovation, particularly around stablecoin design and real-world asset tokenisation, all contribute to the current uplift.

Binance’s role in this rally cannot be overstated. The exchange reported US$2.55 trillion in monthly futures trading volume, according to CoinMarketCap, and captured a staggering 87 per cent of Bitcoin futures taker volume. Its spot market share has climbed to 41.1 per cent, with institutional inflows concentrating in BTC/USDT pairs. This dominance signals a significant shift in market psychology.

After the collapse of FTX, users and institutions alike grew wary of centralised exchange counterparty risk. Binance’s ability to not only survive its own regulatory reckoning but also expand its liquidity depth has restored a measure of trust. Capital is flowing back, not just from retail, but from institutional players seeking reliable on and off ramps. The upcoming relaunch of WazirX on October 24, with zero-fee trading, could further catalyse retail participation, especially in emerging markets where cost sensitivity remains high.

On the macro front, the delayed CPI report has created a temporary window of ambiguity that markets are exploiting for risk-taking. With inflation expectations anchored around 3.1 per cent year-over-year for core CPI, traders are betting that the Fed will pivot toward easing as early as next week.

Historically, lower interest rates weaken the US dollar and boost non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold. The tight correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 complicates this narrative. If tech stocks stumble, perhaps on disappointing earnings or hawkish Fed commentary, crypto could quickly lose its footing, regardless of monetary policy shifts.

Perhaps the most forward-looking driver of current market dynamics lies in DeFi innovation. Solana’s ecosystem has gained attention with the launch of USX, a yield-bearing stablecoin developed by SolsticeFi. Unlike traditional algorithmic or fiat-collateralised stablecoins, USX employs a proof-of-reserve model verified by Chainlink oracles, enhancing transparency and trust. Social mentions of USX surged 67 per cent, indicating strong community and developer interest. This innovation arrives at a critical time, as the stablecoin sector seeks alternatives to centralised models following repeated regulatory crackdowns.

Concurrently, Ethereum shows technical signs of recovery, with its 14-day Relative Strength Index at 48.38, below the neutral 50 mark but with room to run if it breaches the US$3,900 resistance level. Institutional-grade DeFi applications are also gaining traction, exemplified by T-RIZE’s US$300 million real estate tokenisation initiative, which bridges traditional finance with blockchain infrastructure.

Despite these positive developments, caution remains warranted. Bitcoin’s market dominance stands at 59.3 per cent, a level that typically signals investor preference for safety within the crypto space and hesitation toward altcoins. This suggests that while capital is returning, it is doing so selectively. Ethereum and Solana benefit from strong narratives, including scalability, institutional adoption, and novel financial primitives, but they must contend with Bitcoin’s gravitational pull.

The immediate future hinges on Friday’s CPI data. A print below 3.1 per cent year-over-year for core inflation would likely validate the market’s dovish expectations, potentially extending the current rally across equities, crypto, and commodities. A hotter-than-expected number could trigger a sharp reversal, as it would force a reassessment of Fed policy and reignite fears of prolonged high rates. In such a scenario, even Binance’s liquidity depth and DeFi’s innovation might not be enough to sustain momentum.

In conclusion, today’s market wrap reveals a complex interplay of short-term catalysts and long-term structural trends. The crypto market is no longer an isolated domain. It responds acutely to macroeconomic signals, regulatory whispers, and technological breakthroughs. Binance’s dominance provides a foundation of liquidity, easing macro fears offer temporary tailwinds, and DeFi’s evolution promises sustainable growth beyond speculative cycles.

The path forward remains contingent on external data, most immediately the CPI report, that will either confirm the market’s optimism or expose its fragility. Investors would do well to balance enthusiasm with vigilance, recognising that in this new era of interconnected finance, no asset class moves in isolation.

Source: https://e27.co/cpi-countdown-how-fridays-inflation-data-could-make-or-break-the-crypto-rally-20251024/