Tag Archives: breaks

The US$75,000 line in the sand: What happens to markets if Bitcoin breaks below

The US$75,000 line in the sand: What happens to markets if Bitcoin breaks below

Markets closed with a collective sigh of caution on Tuesday as major US indices retreated and the crypto market followed suit, reflecting a broad reassessment of risk ahead of the Federal Reserve’s pivotal interest rate decision. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.90 per cent to 24,663.80 while the S&P 500 slipped 0.49 per cent to 7,138.80 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down a modest 0.05 per cent to 49,141.93.

This synchronised pullback signals more than routine volatility. It reveals a market grappling with the twin pressures of scepticism about artificial intelligence spending and geopolitical friction, all while awaiting clarity from central bank policymakers.

The trigger for Tuesday’s equity slide came from renewed doubts about the AI investment boom. A report indicating that OpenAI missed internal growth and user acquisition targets sparked a reassessment among AI-dependent firms. Oracle and CoreWeave each fell approximately five per cent while chipmakers Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD also moved lower.

This reaction underscores a critical inflection point. Capital allocated to AI infrastructure must now demonstrate tangible returns rather than speculative promise. From my perspective, this scrutiny is healthy. It pushes the ecosystem toward sustainable innovation rather than valuation inflation driven by fear of missing out.

The market is beginning to distinguish between companies building durable AI advantages and those riding a momentum wave. That differentiation will define the next phase of technological and financial evolution.

Energy markets added another layer of complexity as oil prices surged amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude reached US$110.75 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate traded near US$99. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten global maritime trade, injecting supply-side uncertainty into an already fragile macro picture. Higher energy costs ripple through corporate margins and consumer spending, particularly affecting logistics and transportation firms.

This geopolitical dimension reminds us that financial markets do not operate in a vacuum. They reflect real-world friction, and when trade routes are disrupted, risk premiums widen across asset classes. For investors focused on decentralized systems, this reinforces the value of resilient, borderless infrastructure that can operate despite regional instability.

Corporate earnings provided mixed signals amid the macro noise. Coca-Cola gained nearly four to five per cent after beating expectations and raising its annual outlook, demonstrating the enduring power of brands with pricing power and global reach. General Motors advanced 1.3 per cent on a strong quarterly profit beat, suggesting resilience in cyclical sectors as long as execution remains sharp.

In contrast, UPS fell three to four per cent as rising fuel costs offset underlying operational improvements, while Spotify dropped over 10 per cent due to disappointing Q2 profit guidance. These divergent performances highlight that company-specific fundamentals still matter, even when macro headwinds dominate headlines. Investors are rewarding clarity and penalising uncertainty, a dynamic that favours transparent, well-capitalised enterprises, whether in traditional or digital markets.

All eyes now turn to the Federal Reserve, which prepares to announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 PM ET today, with markets widely expecting rates to remain unchanged at 3.75 per cent. The real focus lies on Chair Powell’s 2:30 PM ET press conference for signals about the future policy path. Economic data releases, including durable goods orders and building permits, will add context, but the tone of forward guidance will drive immediate market direction.

Having analysed central bank communications for years, I believe the Fed faces a delicate balancing act. It must acknowledge persistent inflation pressures without derailing economic momentum. For crypto and decentralised finance, the stakes are equally high. A hawkish tilt could strengthen the dollar and pressure risk assets, while a more neutral stance might provide room for alternative financial systems to attract capital seeking yield and innovation.

The crypto market mirrored traditional risk assets, declining 0.96 per cent over 24 hours to a total market capitalisation of US$2.55T over 24 hours. Bitcoin led the weakness, falling 1.02 per cent to approximately US$76,344 and accounting for over 60 per cent of the market’s total decline.

This move triggered US$46.38M in long liquidations concentrated near the US$76,000-US$77,000 range, illustrating how leverage can amplify downturns during periods of macro uncertainty. The Coinbase Premium Index turned negative for the first time in three weeks, signalling waning US institutional demand.

Simultaneously, the Bank of Japan’s hawkish tilt revived fears of a yen carry-trade unwind, pressuring global liquidity conditions. These dynamics confirm that crypto has matured into a macro-sensitive asset class, correlated with traditional risk indicators and still capable of independent innovation.

Looking ahead, the near-term trajectory hinges on two key factors.

  • First, Bitcoin must hold above the US$75,000 support level to prevent a deeper test toward the US$2.46T Fibonacci support for the total market cap.
  • Second, the Federal Reserve’s messaging on April 29 will set the tone for risk appetite across equities, commodities, and digital assets.

If Powell strikes a balanced tone that acknowledges data dependence without committing to premature tightening, markets could stabilise and even rebound. Any unexpectedly hawkish surprise could extend the selloff as traders de-risk portfolios. From my vantage point, this environment favours disciplined capital allocation.

It rewards projects with clear utility, strong treasury management, and genuine user adoption over those relying on speculative narratives. The convergence of AI and blockchain, a theme I explore deeply in my work, will benefit from this clarity as resources flow toward architectures that enhance decentralisation rather than centralise control.

In conclusion, the current market posture reflects a healthy recalibration rather than a fundamental breakdown. The pullback in AI-related equities, the pressure on crypto leverage, and the cautious stance ahead of the Fed decision all point to a market digesting complex inputs and seeking equilibrium.

For those of us building the next iteration of the internet, this period of consolidation offers a strategic opportunity. It allows us to focus on technical robustness, regulatory clarity, and user-centric design without the distraction of irrational exuberance. The correlation between traditional and digital markets underscores our shared exposure to macro forces, but it also highlights the unique value proposition of decentralised systems that operate with transparency and resilience.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Gold surges past US$5,340 and Bitcoin breaks US$70,000 as Middle East crisis sends markets into chaos

Gold surges past US$5,340 and Bitcoin breaks US$70,000 as Middle East crisis sends markets into chaos

Global financial markets entered the trading session with palpable tension as investors grappled with the fallout from escalating military confrontations in the Middle East. Last weekend brought news of strikes on Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sending shockwaves through every corner of the financial system. What unfolded during the previous trading session on March 2 demonstrated both the fragility and resilience of modern markets, as major US indices staged remarkable intraday reversals after plummeting in early trading. The S&P 500 ultimately closed at 6,881.62, posting a modest gain of 0.04 per cent after falling as much as 1.2 per cent during the session. This dramatic recovery pattern repeated across major benchmarks, though not without significant scars.

The Nasdaq Composite led the rebound with greater conviction, finishing at 22,748.86, up 0.36 per cent after erasing losses of 1.6 per cent. Technology stocks, particularly those focused on artificial intelligence infrastructure, provided the muscle for this late-session recovery in New York. Investors who had fled risk assets in the morning found reasons to return by the closing bell, though the whipsaw action left many questioning the stability of current valuations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average told a more sobering tale, declining 0.15 per cent to 48,904.78 after plunging as much as 600 points before clawing back much of the lost ground. This divergence between indices reveals the selective nature of the recovery, with growth-oriented technology names outperforming traditional industrial and financial stocks.

The energy sector emerged as the clearest beneficiary of the geopolitical crisis, surging 1.95 per cent as oil prices reacted to the threat of supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz closure. This strategic waterway handles a substantial portion of global petroleum shipments, and any threat to its operation sends immediate ripples through energy markets. Consumer staples lagged behind as investors rotated away from defensive positions and into sectors that could benefit from inflationary pressures. The bond market experienced its own form of turmoil, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF recording its worst single-day percentage decline of 2026, falling 1.4 per cent as traders recalibrated inflation expectations in light of rising energy costs. This movement in Treasuries signalled growing concern that the Middle East conflict could reignite inflationary pressures just as central banks had begun to gain control over price stability.

Safe-haven demand reached a fever pitch in the gold market, where spot prices climbed to US$5,342.99/oz, marking a gain of 0.40 per cent and representing the fifth consecutive day of advances. Physical demand intensified alongside paper market buying, with reports of extended queues at jewellery stores across Asian markets as domestic prices hit fresh peaks. This sustained buying pressure in gold reflects deep-seated anxiety about the geopolitical situation and its potential economic ramifications. The precious metal has effectively become the primary hedge against both regional conflict and the inflationary consequences that typically follow such disruptions.

Asian markets bore the brunt of the selling pressure as the March 3 trading session unfolded. The Nikkei 225 traded at 57,466.39, down 1.02 per cent as of 10:00 AM in Tokyo, while the FTSE 100 in London closed lower at 10,780.11, down 1.20 per cent, as European investors processed geopolitical fears. This broad-based weakness across Asia-Pacific markets demonstrated how quickly regional conflicts can transmit stress through the global financial system. The divergence between US market resilience and Asian market vulnerability highlights different risk appetites and exposure levels across regions.

The cryptocurrency market provided an unexpected bright spot, surging 3.38 per cent to reach a total market capitalisation of US$2.35T over the 24-hour period. Bitcoin reclaimed the psychologically important US$70,000 level, sparking momentum across the broader digital asset complex. This rally showed a remarkable 93 per cent correlation with the S&P 500, suggesting that crypto has evolved into a macro-driven asset class that moves in tandem with traditional risk indicators. The surge reflected capital flight from Iran following the airstrikes, with crypto outflows from the country spiking by more than 700 per cent as users moved funds offshore to avoid banking scrutiny. This practical demonstration of cryptocurrency utility as a censorship-resistant store of value reinforced the digital gold narrative that proponents have championed for years.

Bitcoin’s breakout above US$70,000 amplified market momentum, supported by a 10.48 per cent jump in total derivatives open interest, signalling renewed leveraged participation. Capital rotated into high-beta sectors with conviction. Layer 1 tokens advanced 4.03 per cent, while AI-themed narratives like Venice Token VVV and NEAR, which gained 18.87 per cent, outperformed sharply. This rotation pattern suggests that an improvement in risk appetite enabled investors to pursue excess liquidity and momentum in areas with the strongest growth narratives. The crypto market’s performance during this geopolitical stress test demonstrates its maturation as a legitimate component of diversified portfolios.

Looking ahead, analysts from Morgan Stanley maintain their year-end 2026 target of 7,500 for the S&P 500, though they caution that political risks and regional conflicts could drive continued short-term volatility. The key question for investors is whether the market can sustain current levels if geopolitical tensions persist or escalate. Bitcoin must hold above US$70,000 to maintain bullish momentum, with a break above US$72,000 needed to confirm continuation toward higher targets. Failure to defend this level could trigger a pullback toward US$68,000 as risk appetite wanes. The coming days will test whether the resilience shown on March 2 represents genuine strength or merely a temporary pause before further turbulence. Markets now wait for clarity on the Middle East situation while monitoring spot Bitcoin ETF flows and Federal Reserve policy signals that could provide direction amid the uncertainty.

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-surges-past-us5340-and-bitcoin-breaks-us70000-as-middle-east-crisis-sends-markets-into-chaos-20260303/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The great decoupling: Bitcoin breaks from Nasdaq as macro forces reshape crypto

The great decoupling: Bitcoin breaks from Nasdaq as macro forces reshape crypto

The global risk sentiment appears buoyed by positive signals in US-China trade diplomacy and tangible progress in artificial intelligence deployment across enterprise and consumer sectors. These developments have provided a psychological cushion for equity markets, which responded with record-breaking closes across all three major US indices. The S&P 500 edged up 0.2 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a 0.8 per cent gain, driven largely by technology stocks that continue to benefit from AI-related earnings momentum and investor enthusiasm.

Beneath this surface calm lies a more complex reality. Consumer confidence, while technically beating consensus expectations at 93.4, has nonetheless slumped to its lowest level in six months. This subtle but significant detail suggests that household sentiment is fraying even as financial markets climb. The divergence between Wall Street and Main Street has rarely been more pronounced.

Meanwhile, the bond market tells its own story of caution. US Treasuries closed narrowly mixed on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield slipping 1.4 basis points to 3.983 per cent and the yield curve flattening, a classic signal of economic uncertainty. Investors appear to be pricing in a near-term rate cut but remain wary of the Federal Reserve’s longer-term inflation outlook and policy trajectory beyond 2025.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slipped 0.1 per cent to close at 98.67. This modest decline reflects sustained risk appetite among global investors, but also growing anticipation ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s upcoming decision. With markets almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut, the focus has shifted from the magnitude of the move to the tone of the accompanying statement and Chair Powell’s press conference. Any hint of a less dovish stance than expected could trigger a sharp reversal in risk assets.

Commodities, too, betray underlying stress. Spot gold fell 0.7 per cent to settle at US$3,951.56 per ounce, marking a three-week low. This retreat from safe-haven assets typically signals confidence in risk markets, but in this context, it may also reflect dollar strength expectations or portfolio rebalancing ahead of the Fed.

More telling is the slide in oil prices. Brent crude tumbled 2.0 per cent to US$64.40 per barrel, pressured by persistent concerns over global demand and mounting evidence of oversupply. Weakness in crude often foreshadows broader economic softness, especially when it coincides with flattening yield curves and declining consumer sentiment.

Turning to crypto, the market declined 1.55 per cent over the past 24 hours, a move driven less by idiosyncratic factors and more by macro crosscurrents. Traders, wary of potential volatility around the Fed decision, shifted capital into stablecoins, a classic risk-off manoeuver in digital asset markets.

This flight to safety drained liquidity from spot and derivatives markets alike, exacerbating price sensitivity. The result was a cascade of forced liquidations, totalling US$552 million in just one day. Of that, US$122 million came from long positions in Ethereum, underscoring the fragility of leveraged bets in altcoins during periods of macro uncertainty.

This derivatives shakeout reveals a critical vulnerability in the current market structure. Perpetual futures funding rates plunged by 76 per cent, indicating a rapid unwinding of bullish leverage. When funding turns deeply negative or collapses in magnitude, it often signals that speculative longs have been flushed out, leaving the market in a more balanced but also more fragile state.

Ethereum’s 3.8 per cent underperformance relative to Bitcoin during this episode highlights a recurring theme. In times of stress, capital rotates toward the perceived safety of BTC, while altcoins bear the brunt of deleveraging.

Technically, Bitcoin’s rejection at the US$116,000 level proved decisive. The failure to sustain a breakout above this psychological and structural resistance triggered a cascade of stop-loss orders and algorithmic selling, which spilled over into the broader altcoin complex. The asset subsequently lost the US$114,200 support zone, breaking a key bullish trendline that had held since early October.

The total crypto market capitalisation now hovers near US$3.94 trillion, which aligns with the 50-day simple moving average, a critical inflection point. The Relative Strength Index at 52.66 suggests neutral momentum, neither oversold nor overbought, leaving the path of least resistance unclear.

What makes this juncture particularly delicate is the shifting correlation between crypto and traditional equities. Historically, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq have moved in tandem, especially during risk-on regimes. But recent data shows that correlation has flipped to negative 0.53, signaling a rare decoupling. This divergence suggests that crypto is no longer simply riding the coattails of tech stocks but is instead responding to its own set of macro and micro drivers, most notably Fed policy expectations, on-chain liquidity dynamics, and derivatives positioning.

From a strategic standpoint, the next 48 hours will be pivotal. The Federal Reserve’s communication today will likely set the tone for asset allocation decisions across all markets. A dovish cut accompanied by clear forward guidance could reignite risk appetite and catalyse a buy the dip rally in crypto, especially if liquidity returns from stablecoins to volatile assets.

Conversely, a hawkish tilt, perhaps emphasising sticky inflation or a higher-for-longer rate path, could trigger another leg down in crypto, with Bitcoin testing the US$112,000 support level and Ethereum struggling to hold above US$3,950.

For long-term participants, this volatility may represent opportunity rather than threat. The current flush of leverage creates a cleaner market structure, reducing the risk of cascading liquidations in the near term. Moreover, the macro backdrop still contains supportive elements, including AI-driven productivity gains, improving US-China relations, and a Fed that remains inclined toward easing, albeit cautiously.

The question is not whether these tailwinds exist, but whether they can overcome the immediate headwinds of policy uncertainty and technical fragility.

The market stands at a crossroads. The data paints a picture of cautious optimism tempered by real economic anxieties. Crypto, once again, finds itself caught between its aspirational narrative as a new asset class and its practical reality as a highly sensitive barometer of liquidity and risk sentiment.

The resolution of this tension will depend less on technical levels or liquidation metrics and more on the Federal Reserve’s ability to navigate the narrow path between inflation control and growth preservation. Until then, expect volatility, watch price action at key supports, and prepare for either a relief rally or a deeper correction. Both remain plausible in this finely balanced macro environment.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-great-decoupling-bitcoin-breaks-from-nasdaq-as-macro-forces-reshape-crypto-20251029/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j