Donald Trump Inauguration Will Bring ‘Noise’ to 2025 Crypto Market: Analysts

Donald Trump Inauguration Will Bring ‘Noise’ to 2025 Crypto Market: Analysts

Monday’s inauguration of Donald Trump isn’t likely to bring any significant price moves for major cryptocurrencies, according to industry experts who spoke to Decrypt before Friday night’s surprise drop of an official Trump meme coin.

Well-established coins such as Bitcoin, Solana, and XRP have risen considerably since the Republican’s election victory on November 5, leading some experts to suggest that the market has already priced in the inauguration.

“I do not anticipate any significant movements on Monday,” YouHodler’s chief of markets Ruslan Lienkha, told Decrypt.

“The event appears to be already priced in, and the inauguration is mainly ceremonial rather than market-moving,” he added.

Some observers also highlight the possibility of a “sell-the-news” day for major tokens, with Bitcoin having already gained strongly in the runup to Trump’s swearing in.

“With [positive] CPI data already priced in and Trump’s inauguration unlikely to introduce any immediate, game-changing policies for crypto, Monday could see a pullback as short-term traders lock in gains,” suggests Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain advisor and cryptocurrency author.

This suggestion resonates with starker warnings given by figures such as BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicted last month that Bitcoin may suffer a “vicious sell-off” when Trump takes office.

While not as pessimistic as Hayes, Swarm co-founder Philipp Pieper tells Decrypt that the inauguration itself doesn’t provide the market with any new information.

“It’s really important to underline here that any price movement on Monday is going to be mostly noise in the bigger picture,” he explained.

But this picture could change as soon as Trump and his administration gets to work, with traders waiting to see whether the current President-elect will live up to earlier pronouncements.

“I’m more closely focused on what he (and his administration) will implement over the next few months,” eToro market analyst Simon Peters told Decrypt.

Peters notes that Trump complained at a recent press conference that interest rates are “far too high,” suggesting that the incoming President may push to lower them.

“A loosening of financial conditions under his administration could provide a tailwind for crypto-asset prices,” Peters adds.

And assuming that recent reports of crypto-related executive orders are accurate, analysts are relatively confident that the general trajectory of the market this year will be upwards.

Pieper explained: “As the regulatory environment becomes clearer and the market grasps tangible updates for the first year of the Trump administration, we’re likely to see a general uplift in prices.”

Legislative and regulatory moves are also likely to combine with tentatively improving macroeconomic indicators, such as US inflation.

“Inflation and rate sensitivity matters because it ultimately has a major say in the outlook for money supply and market liquidity,” said Pieper. “The more liquidity in the market, the more it will raise asset prices.”

Yet while the arrival of both crypto-friendly macroeconomics and presidents should point towards generally rising prices, some analysts warn that some of Donald Trump’s other economic policies could indirectly bite the cryptocurrency market.

“Other policies, such as the potential intensification of trade wars and the imposition of new tariffs, could sustain elevated inflation levels and exert downward pressure on financial markets,” warns Youhodler’s Ruslan Lienkha.

This is perhaps why it would be premature to expect major moves on Monday, since the market will need the new administration to act before it can begin differentiating perceptions from reality.

On the other hand, Monday may expose smaller cap tokens and (politically themed) meme coins to a greater degree of volatility.

“For instance, tokens like MAGA or DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] may stage a rally, influenced by emotional trading rather than substantive factors,” Lienkha suggested.

However, Phillipp Pieper cautions that they may just as easily crash, in view of their low liquidity.

“The issue with these kinds of token is they’re largely sentiment-driven which can be extremely volatile and difficult to underpin the inherent value,” he said.

 

Source: https://decrypt.co/301635/donald-trump-inauguration-2025-crypto-market

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Anndy Lian: South Korea’s New Crypto Rules Bring Market Stability

Anndy Lian: South Korea’s New Crypto Rules Bring Market Stability

South Korea is a significant player in cryptocurrency and blockchain adoption — and has a regulatory framework that recognizes this.

One development on this journey is the Virtual Asset User Protection Act, representing South Korea’s first formal attempt to establish legal guidelines for the management and oversight of virtual assets, including cryptocurrencies.

In essence, the Virtual Asset User Protection Act defines virtual assets as digital representations of value that can be electronically traded or transferred and grants authority to the Financial Services Commission (FSC), the primary financial regulator in South Korea, to supervise and regulate the crypto sector effectively.

The regulations, scheduled to take effect on July 19, 2024, are designed to protect user assets and interests, prevent misuse and abuse, enhance transparency and accountability, and promote innovation and development, and we took a closer look during the proposal stage.

We sit down with intergovernmental blockchain expert Anndy Lian for a nuanced take on the new regulations.

Key Takeaways

  • The Virtual Asset User Protection Act marks South Korea’s first formal attempt to establish legal guidelines for managing and overseeing virtual assets, including cryptocurrencies.
  • The regulations take effect on July 19, 2024, aimed at protecting user assets and interests, enhancing transparency and accountability, and promoting innovation and development.
  • They are expected to have significant implications for both South Korea’s virtual asset market and those abroad — but may pose challenges for teams complying with the strict regulatory standards.
  • There is room for future developments, such as smart contract-based services like DeFi, Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), and Web3.

Impact of South Korea’s Crypto Regulations

Q: How is the Virtual Asset User Protection Act applied internationally, and what impact could it have on virtual asset service providers outside of Korea?

A: The Act is going to have a significant impact on the virtual asset industry, both in South Korea and abroad.

The primary function of the Act is to protect the South Korean market and its users. I think it fits the purpose.

On one hand, it may enhance the credibility and legitimacy of the virtual asset market, as well as the protection and security of users.

On the other hand, it may also pose challenges and costs for VASPs [virtual asset service providers] to meet the strict regulatory standards and requirements — some VASPs may decide to exit the South Korean market or restrict their services to South Korean users, while others may seek to adapt and innovate to comply with the law.

If you look deeper into the Act, I think it is fair for everyone — this is very similar to traditional finance.

Q: Regarding financial investment services and the Capital Markets Act (FSCMA), could you explain the changes brought about by the Token Security Guidelines? What are the potential implications of these changes on the virtual asset market?

A: The implications of these guidelines are significant for the virtual asset market, as they will enable the issuance and circulation of security tokens within the legal boundaries of the capital market regulations.

This will facilitate the creation and trading of new and diverse rights, such as fractional shares, in the form of security tokens. It will also foster the development of small-scale OTC markets where atypical types of securities can be exchanged.

Moreover, the guidelines will ensure the protection of investors and the maintenance of market order, as security tokens will be subject to the same rules and regulations as traditional securities, such as mandatory disclosure, authorization, and prohibition of unfair trading activities.

I think this is a positive and progressive move by the South Korean authorities, as it will promote innovation and inclusion in the virtual asset market while safeguarding the participants’ interests. I hope other countries will follow suit and adopt similar regulatory frameworks for security tokens.

Strengths and Challenges of South Korea’s Rules

Q: How does the Digital Asset Framework Bill specifically regulate virtual/digital assets, and what are its advantages and challenges?

A: The advantages of this bill are manifold.

First, it will create a more transparent and predictable legal environment for the development and innovation of virtual/digital assets, which will attract more investment and participation from domestic and foreign entities.

Second, it will enhance the credibility and legitimacy of the virtual/digital asset market, which will increase the public trust and acceptance of these new forms of value and exchange.

Third, it will foster the integration and interoperability of virtual/digital assets with the existing financial system, which will enable more efficient and convenient transactions and services for users and businesses.

Fourth, it will contribute to the global leadership and cooperation of South Korea in the virtual/digital asset space, as it will align with the international standards and best practices set by organizations such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and the G2014.

Q: And the challenges…?

A: First, it will require a careful and balanced approach to ensure that the regulation does not stifle the innovation and diversity of the virtual/digital asset market, which is constantly evolving and expanding.

Second, it will demand a high level of coordination and collaboration among various stakeholders, such as regulators, legislators, industry players, experts, and users, to ensure that the bill reflects the needs and interests of all parties involved.

Third, it will entail a continuous monitoring and evaluation of the impact and effectiveness of the regulation, as well as a timely and flexible adjustment of the rules and standards to cope with the rapid changes and challenges in the virtual/digital asset market.

I think this is a very important and timely initiative by the South Korean government, as it will provide a solid foundation and direction for the future of the virtual/digital asset market, which has a huge potential and value for society and the economy.

South Korea’s Digital Future

Q: How will the Virtual Asset User Protection Act contribute to market stability and investor protection? In your view, could it enhance the stability and transparency of the virtual asset market?

A: The Act will also establish a set of rules that virtual asset service providers (VASPs) are required to follow to ensure the protection of users’ assets, such as separating customers’ funds and virtual assets from their own, storing a certain proportion of virtual assets in cold wallets, having insurance or reserves for liability, and maintaining transaction records.

Moreover, the Act will confer the market oversight and sanctions authority to the Financial Services Commission (FSC), which will be able to punish unfair trading activities using virtual assets, such as insider trading, market manipulation, and fraud, with criminal penalties and fines.

I think it brings market stability and provides investor protection in several ways.

First, it will create a more transparent and predictable legal environment for the development and innovation of virtual assets, which will reduce uncertainty and risk for investors and users.

Second, it will enhance the credibility and legitimacy of the virtual asset market, which will increase public trust and confidence in these new forms of value and exchange.

Third, it will foster the integration and interoperability of virtual assets with the existing financial system, which will enable more efficient and convenient transactions and services for users and businesses.

Fourth, it will ensure the protection of users’ rights and interests, as well as the maintenance of market order, by imposing strict standards and obligations on VASPs and enforcing sanctions on violators.

Q: The Financial Services Commission excluded deposit tokens linked to NFTs, electronic bonds, mobile gift certificates, and CBDCs from the law. What do you think are the reasons behind this decision? In your view, does this effectively prevent virtual asset-related crimes?

A: In my view, excluding these types of tokens from the law does not necessarily prevent virtual asset-related crimes but rather clarifies the scope and applicability of the law to the relevant types of tokens that could pose potential risks or challenges to the financial system or the users.

The exclusion is very obvious as it overlaps with existing laws.

For a few examples, electronic bonds are tokens that represent the debt obligations of an issuer, such as a government or a corporation, to pay a fixed amount of interest and principal to the holders of the bonds.

These tokens are not considered virtual assets under the law because they are already regulated as securities under the existing capital market regulations and do not pose any additional risks or challenges to the financial system.

CBDC is a digital form of fiat currency issued by a central bank, which can be used as a legal tender for payments and settlements. CBDC is not considered as a virtual asset under the law, because it is a direct liability of the central bank, and does not involve any intermediaries or third parties that could pose any operational or security risks.

What Needs to Happen Next?

Q: There’s an opinion suggesting that while the Virtual Asset User Protection Act focuses mainly on asset segregation and unfair trading activities of virtual asset service providers, regulations on smart contract-based services such as DeFi, Decentralized Autonomous Organizations, and Web3 are inadequate.

How do you perceive this? What alternative methods do you see for the upcoming laws to provide more comprehensive regulations aimed at preventing user harm?

A: Personally, I think the current regulations are sufficient for the time being. We must understand that we are dealing with innovation, which changes very fast.

Putting up a base and having backup correction plans along the journey would be a more protective method for the South Korean market.

I think the best way to approach this issue is to adopt a balanced and flexible perspective that considers both the benefits and drawbacks of smart contract-based services and seeks to find a middle ground between regulation and innovation. Some possible alternative methods for the upcoming laws to provide more comprehensive regulations are:

  • Establishing clear and consistent standards and definitions for different types of smart contract-based services, such as decentralized finance (DeFi), DAOs, and Web3, and applying appropriate rules and requirements for each category.
  • Creating a sandbox or pilot program that allows for testing and experimenting with new and innovative smart contract services under certain conditions and exemptions and with regular monitoring and evaluation.
  • Encouraging collaboration and communication between regulators, developers, users, and other stakeholders to foster mutual understanding, trust, and feedback and to promote best practices and self-regulation.
  • Adopting a principles-based and risk-based approach that focuses on the outcomes and impacts of smart contract-based services rather than the specific processes and mechanisms and that applies proportional and tailored measures according to the level and nature of risk involved.

 

Source: https://www.techopedia.com/anndy-lian-south-koreas-new-crypto-rules-bring-market-stability

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Anndy Lian believes DeFi will also result in more and more bitcoins being locked up, “which will bring another bull market for bitcoin.”

Anndy Lian believes DeFi will also result in more and more bitcoins being locked up, “which will bring another bull market for bitcoin.”

Anndy Lian’s comments were featured on CryptoNews on 27 September 2020. He believes that DeFi will also result in more and more bitcoins being locked up, “which will bring another bull market for bitcoin.”

“This inter-related relationship between Bitcoin and Defi works hand in hand with the demand as seen in the market. The breakout trend in Defi for 2020 will continue. New terms will supersede “Yield Farming”  and a more stable environment will be established as you see the bigger exchanges like Binance, Gemini, Huobi and Okex taking the lead.” Anndy Lian added.

Read more about the article on Google News:

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEGyo6SpEJbiRN5EMTwYXqjoqMwgEKioIACIQOG0vTzP65T11pGTnFueHJCoUCAoiEDhtL08z-uU9daRk5xbnhyQwg7vbBg?hl=en-SG&gl=SG&ceid=SG%3Aen

 

 

 

‘If DeFi Collapsed, Bitcoin Would Still Be Bitcoin’

 

  • The core driver of DeFi is its use case, not Bitcoin.
  • “BTC is money, DeFi is banks, that’s how people should think about it.”
‘If DeFi Collapsed, Bitcoin Would Still Be Bitcoin’ 101
Source: Adobe/golibtolibov

Bitcoin (BTC) and DeFi both had a good summer. After the coronavirus-induced collapse of March, the price of bitcoin rose from USD 3,500 to just over USD 12,000 in August, while the total value locked into DeFi platforms rose from USD 1bn in June to almost USD 12bn in late September.

It’s tempting to view the performances of bitcoin and DeFi as connected. Given that the supply of wrapped bitcoin has ballooned from wBTC 500 to almost wBTC 90,000 in the past 12 months, it would seem that bitcoin holders have been driving the growth of DeFi.

However, industry figures speaking to Cryptonews.com said that, while BTC has been a significant player in DeFi’s growth, its importance within the DeFi ecosystem will wane over time. And while some may be tempted to regard Bitcoin and DeFi as interdependent, most commenters believe that each can survive without the other.

Bitcoin boosts DeFi

There’s little doubt that bitcoin — and in particular wrapped bitcoin — has spurred at least a portion of DeFi’s impressive growth over the past few months – USD 1.4bn worth of BTC is locked in DeFi today, or almost 13% of total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance projects.

As data from Defi Pulse indicates, the demand for wBTC began rising exponentially from the end of June onwards.

‘If DeFi Collapsed, Bitcoin Would Still Be Bitcoin’ 102
Source: defipulse.com

And data also indicates, it was around the end of June that TVL into DeFi platforms suddenly began rising more strongly, as ethereum (ETH) locked in DeFi jumped also this past summer.

‘If DeFi Collapsed, Bitcoin Would Still Be Bitcoin’ 103
Source: defipulse.com

Industry figures agree that the two trends are connected, even if they have their own opinions on how long the interconnection may continue.

“Yes, I think the use of wBTC pair mining will boost the Defi market to a certain extent,” said crypto advisor and author Anndy Lian.

“According to the data released today (the second day of Uniswap Liquidity Mining), 50% of the miners used the wBTC/ETH pair in the initial mining, and most of them are big whales.”

Analyst and CryptoMondays Partner Lou Kerner suggested that bitcoin will remain an important part of DeFi in the medium term, not least because it still accounts for over half of the total value of all cryptoassets.

“Given its scale, bitcoin will be an increasingly significant asset in DeFi. But over time, as real world assets are tokenized and enter DeFi, bitcoin relevance will decrease,” he told Cryptonews.com.

However, while BTC has played a role in DeFi’s recent growth, ADVFN CEO Clem Chambers doesn’t see it as the main factor.

“Bitcoin will influence DeFi but it is not the core driver. The core driver is the powerful use case,” he said.

DeFi boosts BTC

Conversely, commenters agree that DeFi is boosting BTC, or that it will in the near future. By offering the chance to earn an additional return on the bitcoin you own, DeFi’s liquidity mining and yield farming is making BTC seem even more attractive to investors, particularly during a period of reduced economic opportunity.

“DeFi has made BTC even more attractive as an investment,” according to Kerner.

That said, Chambers estimated that most of DeFi’s boost to BTC still awaits us in the future.

“It will [boost bitcoin] but not yet. DeFi is still underground with only the core early adopters ‘getting it’,” he said.

Aside from enhancing the returns offered by bitcoin, Anndy Liang pointed out that DeFi will also result in more and more bitcoins being locked up, “which will bring another bull market for bitcoin.”

Mutual aid, not mutual interdependence

While DeFi and bitcoin both help each other in various ways, commentators seem that they don’t believe that each needs the other to survive.

“Bitcoin crashing would certainly slow the growth of DeFi, but one is not dependent on the other,” said Kerner.

Likewise, if DeFi were to somehow collapse, Interlapse CEO and Co-founder Wayne Chen said that BTC would continue as before.

 

“Bitcoin has seen massive growth over the past decade and will certainly continue its momentum,” he told Cryptonews.com. “If DeFi collapsed, Bitcoin would still be Bitcoin and continue its growth and adoption.”

On the other hand, some think that bitcoin crashing would have a severe effect on DeFi, since even if parts of the DeFi ecosystem survived, altcoins would struggle.

“Most of the ‘value’ coins will go to zero if the price of bitcoin crashed significantly or collapsed,” suggested Lian. “One thing is for sure: no coin (maybe tiny s***coins can) can survive if bitcoin collapses.”

The future: parallel, not pivotal

As for the more distant future, some experts believe that DeFi and Bitcoin will increasingly operate in parallel, rather than remain interlinked.

“BTC is money, DeFi is banks, that’s how people should think about it. The linkage is parallel not pivotal,” argued Chambers.

Chen claims that it’s in the interests of DeFi and Bitcoin that each maintains a degree of independence from the other in the future.

“Industry professionals will likely try to interrelate DeFi and Bitcoin. However, this needs to be done cautiously so that it doesn’t turn into a complicated financial product which can ultimately confuse the market,” he said.

Anndy Lian isn’t completely sure that DeFi will be around in several years’ time. However, if it is, he said there’s a chance other cryptoassets could emerge to reduce BTC’s influence on DeFi.

“But personally I do hope to see new players coming into challenge Bitcoin’s supremacy,” he said. “With challenges, there are improvements. This is what’s lacking in today’s crypto space.”

 

 

Original Source: https://cryptonews.com/exclusives/if-defi-collapsed-bitcoin-would-still-be-bitcoin-7827.htm

 

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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