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The great crypto disconnect: US inflation drops, but BTC keeps falling

The great crypto disconnect: US inflation drops, but BTC keeps falling

While Asian equities celebrated renewed optimism following softer-than-expected US inflation data, the cryptocurrency market entered another phase of retreat, weighed down by a confluence of structural and behavioural forces that signal a deeper realignment in investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6 per cent, buoyed by semiconductor leader TSMC and SoftBank Group, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.1 per cent ahead of a highly anticipated Bank of Japan policy decision.

This regional strength stemmed directly from the US Consumer Price Index’s unexpected drop to 2.7 per cent in November, well beneath the forecasted 3.1 per cent and marking the weakest annual gain since early 2021. Markets interpreted this data as a green light for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, injecting fresh momentum into risk assets across Asia.

At the same time, crypto experienced a further 0.79 per cent decline over the past 24 hours, extending its seven-day slide to 7.57 per cent. This divergence underscores a critical transformation underway. Bitcoin and other digital assets are no longer moving in lockstep with macro liquidity signals or tech-sector sentiment. Instead, they face internal pressures so profound that even historically supportive macro backdrops fail to provide a floor.

Gold surged to an all-time high of US$4330 per ounce, while silver breached US$66 per ounce, levels never before seen in financial history. This shift toward metals reflects a pronounced change in risk perception among institutional and retail investors alike. Unlike in previous cycles, when crypto often benefited from expectations of monetary easing or inflation fears, today’s capital flows into tangible, state-endorsed stores of value rather than decentralised alternatives.

Bitcoin, despite its decade-long narrative as digital gold, has failed to capture this demand. Year-to-date, it is down approximately 8 per cent, and its price correlation with the Nasdaq-100 has weakened to a near-zero 24-hour correlation coefficient of negative 0.03. This decoupling reveals a troubling reality. Crypto’s identity as a risk-on asset is being challenged not only by external macroeconomic conditions but also by its own inability to serve as a reliable hedge during periods of economic uncertainty. Investors now seem to view gold and silver, rather than bitcoin, as the primary beneficiaries of monetary instability, geopolitical tensions, and inflation volatility.

Compounding this macro-level rejection is a relentless wave of selling from bitcoin’s most steadfast cohort, long-term holders. According to available data, nearly US$300 billion worth of bitcoin that had remained dormant for over one year re-entered active circulation in 2025 alone. This represents the largest distribution by long-term holders since 2020 and includes approximately 1.6 million coins that had been untouched for at least two years. The significance of this behaviour cannot be overstated. These are not speculative traders reacting to short-term volatility. They are early adopters, whales, and conviction-driven investors who have weathered multiple market cycles. Their decision to sell suggests a fundamental reassessment of bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

This exodus has coincided precisely with bitcoin’s 30 per cent decline from its October peak of US$126000, indicating that the selling pressure is not merely a reaction to price drops but a driving force behind them. The phenomenon resembles a slow bleed, a steady offloading into thin order books that lacks the drama of a crash but inflicts sustained downward pressure. With the 24-hour Relative Strength Index sitting at 36.36, just above the oversold threshold of 30, the market teeters on the edge of potential capitulation. If that support breaks, a deeper correction could follow, particularly if long-term holders accelerate their distributions.

Further amplifying the downside has been a wave of forced liquidations in the derivatives market. Over the past 24 hours, US$176 million in bitcoin positions were liquidated, with long positions accounting for 66 per cent of those losses, a clear sign of leveraged bullish bets being unwound. This liquidation cascade acted as a multiplier on the initial selling pressure, pushing prices lower in a feedback loop that discouraged new buyers.

There is a silver lining in this deleveraging. Open interest in bitcoin perpetual futures has declined by four per cent, indicating that traders are reducing their leverage exposure. This deleveraging, while painful in the short term, lowers the systemic risk of a disorderly collapse. A less leveraged market is more resilient to flash crashes and more likely to stabilise once sentiment shifts. The immediate impact remains bearish, as each wave of liquidations reinforces the perception of weakness and deters momentum-driven capital from entering.

What makes this moment particularly significant is the behaviour of capital within the crypto ecosystem itself. Bitcoin dominance now stands at 59.36 per cent, a three-month high, which might superficially suggest strength. In reality, it reflects a broader flight from the asset class altogether, not a rotation into bitcoin from altcoins, but a wholesale exit from crypto in favour of traditional safe havens. Investors are not reallocating within digital assets. They are withdrawing from them. This trend raises an urgent question for the coming months.

Can institutional inflows through spot ETFs offset the sustained outflow from long-term holders? Some analysts argue that institutional participation, fuelled by ETF approvals and allocations from major financial firms, is already reducing bitcoin’s volatility, citing a 68 per cent price swing in 2025 compared to Nvidia’s 120 per cent as evidence of maturation. That theoretical stability means little when real-time price action tells a story of persistent selling and broken technical levels.

In conclusion, the US$2.88 trillion market capitalisation level, derived from key Fibonacci retracement levels, emerges as a critical support zone. A decisive close below this threshold could trigger an additional five to seven per cent drop as algorithmic trading models and risk-managed portfolios recalibrate their exposure. Conversely, a firm hold above this level, combined with signs of stabilisation in long-term holder behaviour and renewed ETF inflows, could set the stage for a relief rally. For now, the path of least resistance remains downward.

The confluence of safe-haven rotations, veteran investor profit-taking, and derivatives deleveraging has created a perfect storm that even favourable macro news from the US CPI cannot immediately dispel. Bitcoin may be maturing with respect to volatility metrics, but maturity also entails facing the consequences of market-structure shifts without the artificial buoyancy of speculative fervour.

The next few weeks, especially in the wake of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision and continued Fed commentary, will determine whether this correction marks a temporary pause in a structural bull market or the beginning of a more prolonged reassessment of crypto’s role in a post-rate-hike, risk-conscious world.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-great-crypto-disconnect-us-inflation-drops-but-btc-keeps-falling-20251219/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Macro reality check: Why US$4,000 gold and falling BTC go hand in hand

Macro reality check: Why US$4,000 gold and falling BTC go hand in hand

Risk sentiment has retreated sharply, not due to a sudden economic contraction, but rather to growing investor unease over the sustainability of surging artificial intelligence-related capital expenditures and a surprisingly hawkish pivot from the US Federal Reserve.

Despite delivering a widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut to a target range of 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent, Chair Jerome Powell used the post-decision press conference to push back firmly against expectations of further easing, warning that inflation remains sticky and that the labour market, while cooling, still shows signs of underlying strength. This messaging effectively neutralised the dovish implications of the cut itself, triggering a repricing across asset classes.

Equity markets responded with a clear rotation out of high-duration tech names. The Nasdaq fell 1.6 per cent, significantly underperforming the Dow Jones, which declined only 0.2 per cent. This divergence underscores a market increasingly sceptical of the lofty valuations underpinning the AI trade, which had been a primary driver of the year’s gains. The repricing was mirrored in the bond market, where yields edged higher.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed by two basis points to settle at 4.097 per cent, while the two-year yield rose one basis point to 3.608 per cent. This steepening of the yield curve, albeit modest, signals that traders are now pricing in a more prolonged period of elevated rates than previously expected. The US Dollar Index capitalised on this shift in sentiment, rising 0.3 per cent to 99.53, its highest level in three months, as global capital sought the relative safety of the greenback.

This risk-off environment spilt over into commodities and, more acutely, into the cryptocurrency market. Gold, often a haven during uncertainty, surged by 2.4 per cent to close at an extraordinary US$4,023.20 per ounce, a level that speaks to deep-seated anxieties about long-term monetary debasement and a potential flight from traditional financial assets. In the oil market, Brent crude was relatively stable, gaining just 0.1 per cent to settle at US$65 per barrel.

This calm, however, belies a complex backdrop. The market is digesting news that OPEC+ is poised to approve another modest output increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December, a move that would continue its gradual unwinding of production cuts. This potential supply boost is being counterbalanced by new US sanctions on Russia, which have stoked uncertainty about the reliability of global oil supply, creating a tense equilibrium that has so far prevented a major price move in either direction.

Against this macroeconomic tapestry, the cryptocurrency market has entered a period of pronounced weakness. Over the past 24 hours, the total market capitalisation has fallen by two per cent, extending a monthly decline of 6.46 per cent. The current market cap stands at approximately US$3.67 trillion, a figure that has broken below both its seven-day and 30-day simple moving averages, signalling a clear deterioration in its technical structure. This downturn is not a simple market correction but the result of a confluence of powerful, bearish forces operating in unison.

The most significant driver of this weakness is a sudden and substantial exodus of institutional capital from Bitcoin spot ETFs. On October 30, these funds recorded a net outflow of US$488 million, the largest single-day withdrawal since June 2025. The selling was led by the market’s two heaviest weights: BlackRock’s IBIT saw US$291 million flee its coffers, while Ark Invest’s ARKB bled a further US$65.6 million. This synchronised institutional retreat is a critical development.

For much of 2025, the steady inflow of capital into these ETFs had been the bedrock of Bitcoin’s price stability and its primary source of new demand. The abrupt reversal suggests that large, sophisticated players are either taking profits after a strong run or, more ominously, are repositioning their portfolios in anticipation of a more challenging macro environment ahead. With total ETF assets now at US$143.9 billion, the market is now on high alert for November’s flow data, which will be the key indicator of whether this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a sustained institutional withdrawal.

Compounding this problem is a sharp contraction in the derivatives market. Total open interest, a measure of the total value of outstanding leveraged bets, has plummeted by 4.4 per cent, falling from US$848 billion to US$812 billion. At the same time, average funding rates on perpetual futures contracts have turned negative, settling at -0.0018 per cent. This combination is a classic sign of market deleveraging.

Traders are actively closing their long positions, often at a loss, to reduce their risk exposure. While this process of forced liquidation removes the immediate threat of a cascading crash, it also strips the market of its bullish momentum. The negative funding rate confirms that the short-term sentiment is firmly bearish, as those holding short positions are now being paid to do so by the longs who remain in the market.

From a technical perspective, the picture is equally grim. The market has not only broken key moving averages but has also seen its Relative Strength Index (RSI) fall to 40.9, entering oversold territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in negative territory, suggesting that the bearish momentum is still in control.

This creates a precarious situation where the market is technically primed for a bounce, but the underlying trend remains firmly down. The next major support level appears to be the US$3.6 trillion mark, a 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level, which will be a critical test of the market’s resilience.

The prevailing sentiment is one of fear. The market’s Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 31, a level categorised as Extreme Fear and the lowest it has been in a week. This psychological state is further amplified by a rising Bitcoin dominance index, which now sits at 59.3 per cent.

When Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap increases during a downturn, it typically indicates that investors are fleeing from riskier altcoins and rotating into what they perceive as the safest asset in the space. This dynamic suggests that if the current pressure continues, altcoins could face even more severe selling than Bitcoin itself.

In conclusion, the crypto market’s current malaise is a direct reflection of a broader macroeconomic shift. The trifecta of institutional caution, derivatives deleveraging, and a broken technical structure has created a formidable headwind. While the oversold conditions may eventually attract bargain hunters, the market is in desperate need of a catalyst to reverse its course.

That catalyst could come in the form of a renewed wave of ETF inflows, signaling that institutions have regained their confidence, or from a more dovish signal from the Federal Reserve that eases the pressure on risk assets. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower, and all eyes will be on whether Bitcoin can hold its October low near US$105,000 as the ultimate test of its underlying support.

 
 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Price analysis 1/20: SPX, DXY, BTC, TRUMP, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK

Price analysis 1/20: SPX, DXY, BTC, TRUMP, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK

Bitcoin BTCUSD hit a new all-time high above $109,500 on Jan. 20, after the odds for a strategic Bitcoin reserve skyrocketed to 69% on DeFi betting market Polymarket.

The newly launched Trump family-related memecoins, Official Trump (TRUMP) and Official Melania (MELANIA), have also seen massive interest from the cryptocurrency trading community. Intergovernmental blockchain expert and author Anndy Lian told Cointelegraph that the memecoin launches will usher in a “new era for memecoins and altcoins.”

Euphoric times offer several trading opportunities, but they come with a risk. Vertical rallies are generally non-sustainable and are followed by sharp pullbacks. The deep pullback in TRUMP and Solana’s (SOL) volatility suggests that traders should exercise caution.

Can Bitcoin recapture its all-time high and trigger buying in altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) reversed strongly last week and broke above the moving averages, indicating that the break below 5,853 on Jan. 10 may have been a bear trap.

The 20-day exponential moving average (5,934) has flattened out, and the relative strength index (RSI) has risen into positive territory, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the zone between 6,050 and 6,100.

If the price turns down from the overhead zone, the index may form a range between 6,050 and 5,853. The next trending move is expected to begin on a break above 6,100 or below 5,773.

US Dollar Index price analysis

The US Dollar Index once again took support at the 20-day EMA (108.62) on Jan. 15, indicating that every minor dip is being purchased.

The RSI is showing signs of forming a negative divergence, suggesting that the bullish momentum is weakening. Sellers will have to yank the price below the 20-day EMA to open the doors for a deeper fall to 108 and then to the 50-day SMA (107.32).

Contrarily, a break and close above 110.17 will signal the continuation of the uptrend. The index could rally to 113.14 and eventually to 114.77. Buyers may find it challenging to clear the 114.77 hurdle.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($99,257) on Jan. 20 and skyrocketed to a new all-time high of $109,588.

If buyers maintain the price above $108,353, it will suggest the start of the next leg of the uptrend. The bulls will then try to thrust the price toward $126,706.

On the contrary, if the price fails to sustain above $108,353, it will suggest that the bears are fiercely defending the level. Sellers will have to pull the price below the moving averages to weaken the bullish momentum. The BTCUSDT pair could then consolidate between $109,588 and $90,000 for a few days.

Official Trump price analysis 

Due to the enormous popularity and volatility of the TRUMP memecoin, Cointelegraph is providing short-term analysis. A 30-minute chart has been used since there is little price history to look to for deeper insights.

The TRUMPUSDT pair has dipped below the symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling that the bulls are losing their grip. If the price maintains below the uptrend line, the pair could tumble to $38. This is a critical level to watch out for in the near term because a break below it may sink the pair to $24.

On the contrary, a strong bounce off the current level will suggest buying at lower levels. The bulls will then try to push the pair back into the triangle. Buyers will be back in command on a close above the downtrend line.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) bulls are defending the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern but are facing selling near the 50-day SMA ($3,537).

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($3,362) and the RSI near the midpoint indicate a slight edge to the bears. A break and close below $3,125 could accelerate selling, pulling the ETHUSDT pair toward $2,850.

Buyers will have to push and maintain the price above the 50-day SMA to indicate that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair could then rally to $3,745, which is likely to behave as a stiff hurdle.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) bounced off the breakout level of $2.91 on Jan. 20, indicating that the bulls are trying to flip the level into support.

The XRPUSDT pair is likely to pick up momentum after buyers push and sustain the price above the $3.40 overhead resistance. That could start the next leg of the uptrend toward the pattern target of $4.84.

The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA ($2.75). The pair may then sink to the 50-day SMA ($2.46). This is an important level to watch out for because a drop below the 50-day SMA could start a decline to $2.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) has been trading between the uptrend line and the overhead resistance at $745 for the past few days.

The flattish moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. If the price rises above the moving averages, the BNBUSDT pair will again attempt to rally above $745. If that happens, the pair could surge to $794.

Contrarily, a break and close below the uptrend line will signal that the bulls are closing their positions. That could sink the pair to the $635 support, which is likely to attract solid buying by the bulls.

Solana price analysis

Solana has been hugely volatile for the past two days, indicating an intense battle between the bulls and the bears.

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($214) and the RSI near the overbought zone suggest that buyers are in command. A close above $260 improves the prospects of a retest of the all-time high at $295. If this level is scaled, the SOLUSDT pair may surge to $300 and eventually $375.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below $229, it will signal that the bulls are rushing to the exit. The pair may then drop to the 20-day EMA. A deep correction is likely to delay the start of the next leg of the uptrend.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been rising inside an ascending channel pattern for the past few days, indicating buying on dips and selling on rallies.

The 20-day EMA ($0.36) is flattening out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, signaling a balance between supply and demand. If the price dips below the channel, the DOGEUSDT pair could slide to the $0.27 to $0.23 support zone. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the zone.

The bulls will be back in the driver’s seat on a close above the channel. That could clear the path for a rally to $0.48. Sellers are expected to vigorously defend the $0.48 level because a break above it may propel the pair to $0.59.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) has been trading inside the symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears.

It is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty as the flattish moving averages and the RSI just above the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears.

If buyers drive the price above the triangle, the ADAUSDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $1.33. If this level is crossed, the rally could extend to $1.64. On the other hand, a break and close below the triangle could sink the pair to $0.80.

Chainlink price analysis

Chainlink (LINK) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($22.72) on Jan. 19, indicating that the sentiment remains positive, and traders are buying on dips.

The LINKUSDT pair rose above the $26 overhead resistance on Jan. 20, indicating that the bulls remain in control. If the price sustains above $26, the pair could retest the overhead resistance at $31.

Instead, if the price fails to maintain above $26, it will suggest selling on rallies. The bears will have to tug the price below the 20-day EMA to signal strength. That increases the risk of a fall to $20.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

 

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:a8013c3aa094b:0-price-analysis-1-20-spx-dxy-btc-trump-eth-xrp-bnb-sol-doge-ada-link/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j