Bitcoin Price Placid Ahead of Fed Chair Remarks in Jackson Hole

Bitcoin Price Placid Ahead of Fed Chair Remarks in Jackson Hole

Bitcoin is still trading relatively flat as investors turn their attention to Jackson Hole in Wyoming, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is slated to give a policy speech at the Fed’s symposium later today.

Experts say his comments will likely set the tone for September, and that close attention should be paid to Powell’s interpretation of market data and any hints about the scale and timing of future cuts.

In the hours leading up to Powell’s address, most major cryptocurrencies—not just Bitcoin—are trading relatively flat.

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is down 0.8% at $60,766.48, while Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest, has gained 0.5% to reach $2,654.94, according to data from CoinGecko.

For the crypto market, any surprises in this announcement could have significant implications. A more aggressive rate cut or a dovish outlook, could fuel a strong bullish momentum, as investors seek higher returns in alternative assets. But a less accommodating stance or a hint of future tightening could trigger volatility, potentially leading to a short term dip as investors reassess risk.

Speaking with Decrypt, Ryan Lee, Bitget Research’s chief analyst said the market might receive signals of “rate cut confidence” and “data dependence.” He expects Powell’s message to be similar to recent communications: the Fed is close to cutting rates, but the extent of easing will depend on upcoming data.

“As of now, the market expects a 73.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut or a 26.5% probability of a 50 basis point cut in September. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 3.85%, and the US Dollar Index is at 101.44,” Lee said.

Outlining potential scenarios, Lee said if dovish statements are made, the dollar index is likely to continue falling, the 10-year Treasury yield may keep declining, and the crypto market could gain momentum. Conversely, the opposite may occur.

In a note sent to Decrypt, Jag Kooner, Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex said Powell’s speech will be scrutinized for clues about the Fed’s rate decisions, especially in light of the significant 818,000 downward revision in US payrolls—the largest since 2009. This revision signals potential labor market weakness that could influence the Fed’s approach—and therefore cause some choppy action for Bitcoin.

While a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in September is widely expected, with the CME Fedwatch Tool currently showing a 73 percent probability of a rate cut in September, the revised job data raises the possibility of a more aggressive 50 bps cut, as the Fed may act to mitigate faster-than-anticipated economic softening.

“Despite the downward revision, the broader economic indicators, such as GDP and jobless claims, suggest the economy is not in the same dire state as during the 2009 recession,” Kooner said. “This mixed data could result in Powell maintaining a cautious tone, emphasizing the Fed’s data-dependent stance.”

The crypto community is closely watching for any signals that could influence market sentiment.

Providing context on the potential implications for the crypto market, intergovernmental blockchain expert Anndy Lian told Decrypt that based on the current market sentiments, the expectation of a rate cut is inevitable and is already priced in.

If it happens, it will be the first in over four years. Rate cuts generally make riskier asset classes, including cryptocurrencies and stocks, look more attractive to asset managers.

“I believe there will be an increase in liquidity. This happens because lower interest rates encourage borrowing and spending, putting more money into circulation,” Lian said. “Some of this liquidity tends to flow into riskier assets like crypto, seeking potentially higher returns.”

A rate cut can also weaken the U.S. dollar, which could push investors to seek higher yields elsewhere.

A weaker dollar can make dollar-denominated assets, like Bitcoin, more attractive to international buyers, potentially driving up demand and price, Lian said.

However, if inflation persists despite the rate cut, the Fed might be forced to increase interest rates, resulting in reduced market liquidity and lower investor risk appetite.

 

Source: https://decrypt.co/246094/bitcoin-price-placid-ahead-of-fed-chair-remarks-in-jackson-hole

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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SEC chair Gensler confirms “everything other than Bitcoin” is a security: Implications and analysis

SEC chair Gensler confirms “everything other than Bitcoin” is a security: Implications and analysis

SEC Chair Gary Gensler reiterated that Bitcoin is not a security but a commodity under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) purview. He also stated that “everything else other than bitcoin is a security,” which has significant implications for regulating cryptocurrencies and digital assets in the United States.

Gensler’s statement reflects the SEC’s long-held view that many cryptocurrencies and digital assets are securities under U.S. law. The SEC’s definition of a security is broad — it includes any investment contract in which an individual invests money in a common enterprise with the expectation of profits solely from the efforts of others. In other words, if an asset is sold as an investment with the expectation of profit based on the efforts of others, it is likely to be considered a security.

Gensler’s comments have sparked debate in the cryptocurrency community. Some argue that his view is overly broad and that many digital assets do not fit the SEC’s definition of a security. Others argue that the SEC’s approach is necessary to protect investors from fraudulent or manipulative activities in the cryptocurrency market.

One of the key implications of Gensler’s comments is that many digital assets may be subject to SEC regulation. This could include initial coin offerings (ICOs), a crowdfunding campaign where investors purchase digital tokens in exchange for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum. Many ICOs have been criticized for their lack of transparency and accountability, and the SEC has taken enforcement action against several ICO issuers in recent years.

Another implication is that exchanges that trade digital assets may be subject to SEC oversight. Under U.S. law, exchanges facilitating securities trading must register with the SEC and comply with various regulations. If the SEC views many digital assets as securities, then exchanges that trade those assets may also be required to register with the SEC and comply with its regulations.

His comments suggest that the SEC may take a more aggressive approach to regulating the cryptocurrency market. This could include increased enforcement actions against issuers of digital assets considered securities and against exchanges that facilitate trading those assets. It could also lead to new regulations to increase transparency and accountability in the cryptocurrency market.

The SEC’s approach to regulating cryptocurrency has been debated for several years. Some argue that the SEC’s current approach is too cautious and stifling innovation in the cryptocurrency space. Others argue that increased regulation is necessary to protect investors from fraud and manipulation.

Gensler’s comments suggest that the SEC will likely take a more assertive approach to regulate the cryptocurrency market in the coming years. This could include increased enforcement actions, new regulations, and closer scrutiny of digital assets and exchanges that operates in the U.S.

Maybe we can take a step back to look into a few things. Firstly, it’s important to understand the context of Gensler’s statement. As mentioned earlier, Gensler reiterated the SEC’s stance in an interview with CNBC in July 2022 that Bitcoin is not a security but a commodity that falls under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s jurisdiction. He did not label other digital assets, avoiding answering the question directly. However, in a tweet by Jake Chervinsky in February 2023, it was suggested that Gensler may have prejudged that every digital asset aside from Bitcoin is a security.

Then my question is: What exactly is a security? In the US, the Securities Act of 1933 defines a security as any investment contract, note, stock, or any other type of investment in a common enterprise with the expectation of profits solely from the efforts of others. In simpler terms, it means an asset representing an ownership interest or a right to receive future profits or cash flows from a third party.

Suppose we consider Gensler’s statement that everything other than Bitcoin is a security. In that case, it implies that most digital assets such as Ethereum, XRP, and other cryptocurrencies would be considered securities under US law. This means that they would be subject to SEC regulations and oversight. It’s worth noting that this is not a new position for the SEC. For years, the SEC has warned cryptocurrency companies that their tokens could be classified as securities if they meet certain criteria.

The implications of this classification are significant. If a digital asset is classified as a security, the issuer must comply with SEC regulations, including registration and disclosure requirements. It would also have to follow strict trading, reporting, and investor protection rules. Additionally, investors would be protected under federal securities laws, which could increase their confidence in the digital asset market. However, it could also lead to additional costs and regulatory burdens for the companies issuing digital assets.

My opinion on this matter is that while Gensler’s statement may have been perceived as a blanket statement, the SEC’s approach to regulating cryptocurrencies is nuanced and fact-specific. The SEC has been clear that it will evaluate each token on a case-by-case basis to determine whether it meets the legal definition of a security. In other words, just because a digital asset is not Bitcoin does not automatically mean it’s a security.

Furthermore, regulatory oversight is necessary for the cryptocurrency market to mature and gain mainstream adoption. The lack of clear regulations has been a major roadblock for institutional investors, who are hesitant to invest in a market perceived as unregulated and risky. Clear regulations would also protect retail investors who may not have the knowledge or resources to navigate the complex world of cryptocurrencies.

To conclude, while Gensler’s statement that “everything other than Bitcoin” is a security may have caused some alarm in the cryptocurrency community, we believe that it’s important to view it in the context of the SEC’s broader approach to regulating digital assets. The SEC’s focus on investor protection and market integrity is crucial for the long-term success of the cryptocurrency market.

As the market continues to evolve, we expect that the SEC’s approach will continue to evolve, and we look forward to seeing how it develops. Meanwhile, I hope SEC can be more precise and take a more responsible stance when putting statements out in the market.

 

Source: https://cryptoslate.com/sec-chair-gensler-confirms-everything-other-than-bitcoin-is-a-security-implications-and-analysis/

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Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Anndy Lian Joins EG Association as Non Executive Chair “Social Impact Supercharged Using Blockchain”

Anndy Lian Joins EG Association as Non Executive Chair “Social Impact Supercharged Using Blockchain”

Anndy Lian has joined EG Association as their Non Executive Chairman. The EG Association, a social impact-driven organization leveraging the power of blockchain technologies. The association is a non-profit organization that serves to bring and influence social impact activities to all regions of the world.

The mission is to leverage community action and blockchain technologies to grow a global movement that defies the status quo and makes profitability intrinsically linked to positive social impact. This means that the EG Association acts as the real-world gateway – governing social impact activities on the ground such as donations, sponsorships, social entrepreneurship, and community actions.

Anndy is the Chairman of the Korea eSports Industry and BigONE Exchange. He is also the Chief Digital Advisor to Mongolia’s national productivity agenda. Previously, he was an Advisory Board member for Hyundai DAC and Blockchain Advisor to Asian Productivity Organisation.

“I am delighted to be part of the association as their Non Executive Chair. The identity as a non-profit organisation is easier for us to reach out to the masses and seeking partnerships with corporations and governments. By far, more than $3 million is donated. We have also partnered with ZHC on other initiatives. The association’s agenda is straight forward and we will continue to help communities with actionable deliverables.” Anndy Lian said.

He is welcomed by Alexander Gambon, Chief Brand Officer and Danijela Svircic, VP of Social Impact & Partnerships on this video. Both Alexander and Danijela have also shared their perspectives and through the creation of the volunteer programme, we aim to build a global network of people supporting various causes in their local communities.

To find out more about EG Association, visit www.eg-a.com.

The full video can be

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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