Stocks fear the Fed but crypto shrugs off a 58% rate hike bet: Why the split?

Stocks fear the Fed but crypto shrugs off a 58% rate hike bet: Why the split?
The global financial landscape currently displays a truly fascinating divergence between digital reserves and conventional equities. While mainstream stock indices stumbled under the weight of geopolitical anxiety and rising bond yields, the cryptocurrency sector forged a completely independent upward path. The total digital asset capitalisation surged 1.09 per cent to reach US$2.64T over the 24-hour period. This impressive rally stands in stark contrast to the broad sell-off gripping conventional financial exchanges.My perspective on this dynamic reveals a profound structural change in how institutional participants view alternative stores of value. Market actors increasingly treat major decentralised networks as strategic reserve instruments rather than high-beta extensions of the technology sector. This decoupling highlights a maturing ecosystem that draws fundamental support from corporate treasury adoption, while traditional stocks react violently to macroeconomic shocks and international conflicts. This paradigm shift demands careful attention from serious analysts.

The primary engine driving this digital rally stems directly from aggressive corporate accumulation. The prominent public entity named Strategy executed a massive purchase of 4,603 BTC for approximately US$370M between August 24 and August 30. The organisation announced this significant acquisition on August 31, bringing its total treasury holdings to an astonishing 845,050 BTC.

This deliberate capital allocation strategy provides an immensely powerful fundamental bid that easily absorbs short-term selling pressure. Large entities accumulating digital reserves validate the underlying thesis of decentralised scarcity. When major corporations deploy US$370M in capital into one network, they signal profound long-term conviction. This institutional demand directly outweighs temporary macroeconomic concerns or restrictive central bank rhetoric. Participants interpret such massive balance sheet commitments as an undeniable endorsement of digital property rights. The ecosystem absorbs this positive supply shock and immediately prices in sustained corporate participation.

Beyond direct corporate purchases, robust technical indicators and steady exchange-traded fund flows reinforce the bullish momentum. United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds maintained an exceptionally resilient asset-under-management figure of US$101.41B. This steady capital base proves that institutional allocators refuse to abandon their digital positions despite external turbulence. Technical charts further validate this strength.

The total capitalisation successfully broke above its seven-day simple moving average of US$2.65T. Momentum indicators flash highly optimistic signals. The bullish moving average convergence divergence histogram registered US$8.89B, while the relative strength index reached 78.93. These metrics demonstrate powerful buying pressure. Interestingly, the digital ecosystem currently shares a 79 per cent correlation with gold. This strong statistical link firmly positions the two asset classes as premier inflation hedges. Investors flock to hard instruments when they anticipate currency debasement or persistent inflationary pressures. Allocators clearly value this reliable protection against fiat currency degradation.

Conventional exchanges paint a drastically different picture characterised by fear and risk aversion. Global equities opened the month of September 2026 significantly lower following an unexpected escalation of military hostilities. The exchange of military strikes between United States forces and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz triggered immediate supply chain fears and widespread panic selling. The Standard and Poor’s 500 index slipped 0.3 per cent to trim recent monthly gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped about 370 points, or 0.7 per cent, but still finished August with a positive monthly return. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1 per cent as participants fled growth stocks. The panic spread rapidly across the Asia-Pacific region. South Korea’s Kospi index plunged over three per cent while Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened down more than two per cent. Traders aggressively sold conventional equities to seek refuge in cash and commodities.

This geopolitical crisis severely distorted commodity prices and government debt yields. Energy markets reacted violently to the military conflict in a crucial shipping lane. Brent crude oil prices surged above US$90 per barrel, while United States crude approached US$86 per barrel. These skyrocketing energy costs immediately revived dormant inflation concerns across the global economy. Bond markets reflected this renewed inflation anxiety. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed past 4.75 per cent and hit roughly 4.76 per cent. The 30-year Treasury yield touched an intimidating 5.26 per cent. These represent the highest yield levels since January 2025.

Rising borrowing costs heavily penalise traditional corporate earnings and compress equity valuation multiples. Higher energy prices simultaneously squeeze consumer spending and corporate profit margins. This toxic combination of rising yields and expensive oil creates a highly hostile environment for traditional stock valuations. Traders quickly abandon risk assets when borrowing costs spike dramatically. Portfolio managers rapidly de-risk their holdings in response to these compounding macroeconomic headwinds.

The divergent reactions also highlight differing expectations regarding central bank policy. Traditional participants currently price in a 60 to 66 per cent chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike following recent commentary from Jackson Hole. Escalating energy costs force the central bank to maintain a restrictive monetary stance. The digital ecosystem prices in an approximately 58 per cent probability of a rate hike ahead of the September 16 policy decision. This slight divergence in expectations shows that digital allocators maintain a more optimistic view of future liquidity conditions.

Looking at immediate price targets, the digital ecosystem must hold the crucial support zone between US$2.49T and US$2.57T. The 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level sits exactly at US$2.57T. The successful defence of this level keeps the bullish trend intact. The decisive break above the recent swing high of US$2.7T could accelerate gains toward the US$2.85T extension. Conversely, a failure to hold support could trigger a retest of the 30-day simple moving average near US$2.37T.

The stark contrast between these two financial realms underscores the major evolution in global capital allocation. Conventional stocks are highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, rising energy costs, and fluctuating government debt yields. Digital instruments currently operate with a distinct internal momentum fuelled by corporate treasury adoption and steady institutional inflows. The concrete corporate buy-in provides a remarkably stable foundation that easily withstands external macroeconomic turbulence.

Observers must closely monitor whether other large organisations follow the aggressive accumulation strategy. Sustained corporate buying will likely push digital valuations to new highs regardless of conventional volatility. Strong fundamentals keep the underlying demand story completely intact today. Participants increasingly recognise the immense strategic value of holding decentralised instruments in an unpredictable global environment. This structural decoupling clearly demonstrates that digital reserves now command their own fundamental narrative, entirely separate from conventional equity sentiment. Smart money clearly recognises this monumental shift in global finance.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Market wrap: A tale of tariffs, Bitcoin whales, and corporate crypto adoption

Market wrap: A tale of tariffs, Bitcoin whales, and corporate crypto adoption

The financial world is buzzing with a mix of cautious optimism and underlying tension. I’m here to break it all down with as much detail and clarity as I can muster. From President Trump’s tariff policy flip-flops to a massive Bitcoin withdrawal from a major exchange, and the growing corporate appetite for cryptocurrency, there’s a lot to dissect. Let’s dive in.

Global risk sentiment has seen a notable uptick in recent days, largely driven by signals from the Trump administration that suggest a potential softening of trade tensions. Trump’s floating of a possible pause on auto tariffs has injected a dose of relief into markets already buoyed by his earlier suspension of levies on certain consumer electronics.

These temporary exemptions across select sectors have sparked hope among investors that there might be room for negotiation with key trading partners, particularly in Europe and Asia. However, Trump’s frequent policy reversals—shifting from aggressive tariff threats to conciliatory gestures—have kept investors on edge. The unpredictability of his trade strategy has become a hallmark of his administration, and while markets have welcomed the latest reprieve, there’s an underlying wariness that the pendulum could swing back toward confrontation at any moment.

Adding to the trade narrative, the US Commerce Department has initiated probes into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, signaling that the administration is far from done with its protectionist agenda. These sectors are critical to global supply chains, and any tariffs imposed here could have far-reaching implications, particularly for tech-heavy markets such as South Korea and Taiwan, as well as pharmaceutical hubs in Europe and India.

The prospect of new tariffs has already stirred unease in Asian markets, though early trading today saw a lift in equities, led by Japan, where the Nikkei 225 gained 1.1 per cent on hopes of broader tariff exemptions. Meanwhile, US equity index futures are pointing to a slightly softer open, with a projected dip of 0.2 per cent, reflecting the mixed sentiment that’s pervading global markets.

On the macroeconomic front, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has sought to calm nerves following a recent selloff in the bond market. Yields on US Treasuries fell sharply today, with the 10-year yield dropping 11.6 basis points to 4.37 per cent and the two-year yield declining 11.5 basis points to 3.85 per cent. Bessent dismissed speculation that foreign nations, such as China or Japan, were offloading their US Treasury holdings en masse, a rumour that had gained traction amid heightened trade tensions. His comments provided some reassurance, but the bond market’s volatility underscores the broader uncertainty that investors are grappling with.

The US Dollar Index, meanwhile, continued its downward trajectory, shedding 0.5 per cent today, while gold, often a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty, consolidated its recent gains with a modest 0.8 per cent decline. Brent crude oil, hovering around US$65 per barrel, eked out a 0.2 per cent gain, buoyed by optimism over potential tariff relief.

Shifting gears to the cryptocurrency space, a significant development has caught the attention of market watchers: a massive withdrawal of 1,000 Bitcoin (BTC), valued at over US$84 million, from the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. According to blockchain monitoring firm Whale Alert, the transaction occurred late on April 14, with the funds moved to an unknown wallet.

This kind of movement often sparks speculation in the crypto community, as large withdrawals by so-called “whales” can signal a variety of intentions—ranging from long-term holding (a bullish sign) to preparation for a major sale (a potential bearish signal). Given the timing, however, this withdrawal aligns with a broader wave of optimism in the crypto market, as Bitcoin and other altcoins are showing signs of a potential price recovery.

Bitcoin has indeed been on a tear in recent days, with CoinMarketCap data showing a 1.98 per cent price increase and a staggering 25.82 per cent surge in trading volume over the past 24 hours as of April 15. This uptick comes after a period of consolidation following a slump that saw BTC dip below US$80,000 earlier this month. The renewed interest from both retail and institutional investors is palpable, and key metrics—such as trading volume and on-chain activity—are painting a bullish picture.

Analysts are increasingly optimistic, with price targets ranging from US$132,000 (as predicted by Jamie Coutts) to an ambitious US$250,000 (projected by Charles Hoskinson) by the end of 2025 or into 2026. These projections reflect a growing belief that Bitcoin is solidifying its status as a store of value, often dubbed “digital gold,” especially in a world where macroeconomic uncertainty is driving demand for alternative assets.

However, the crypto market isn’t without its challenges, and regulatory developments are casting a shadow over the sector. A recent post from Eleanor Terrett on X highlighted that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed its decision on allowing WisdomTreeFunds and VanEck to process in-kind creations and redemptions for their Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs until June 3.

For those unfamiliar, “in-kind” transactions involve exchanging the underlying assets (such as Bitcoin or Ethereum) directly, without converting to cash—a mechanism that helps investors avoid taxable events while maintaining liquidity and price stability. The SEC’s hesitation stems from concerns raised during the Gary Gensler era, where the regulator prioritised cash creations to limit tax advantages, even though in-kind transactions are often more efficient for ETF operations. This delay underscores the ongoing tug-of-war between innovation in the crypto space and the regulatory framework that governs it, a tension that continues to shape the market’s evolution.

On a more positive note, corporate adoption of Bitcoin is gaining momentum, a trend that’s bolstering the bullish sentiment. Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy) made headlines today with its latest purchase of 3,459 BTC for US$285.8 million, bringing its total holdings to an impressive 531,644 Bitcoin as of April 15.

This acquisition, at an average price of approximately US$82,600 per Bitcoin, reaffirms Strategy’s position as one of the largest corporate holders of the cryptocurrency. The company’s aggressive accumulation strategy has been a bellwether for institutional interest in Bitcoin, and its success has inspired other firms to follow suit. Japanese firm Metaplanet, Semler Scientific, and even GameStop have joined the corporate Bitcoin adoption trend, collectively contributing to a 16.11 per cent quarter-over-quarter increase in public company Bitcoin holdings, which now stand at 694,453 BTC—or 3.3 per cent of the total supply.

This surge in corporate adoption has been facilitated by a significant regulatory shift: the SEC’s decision to drop Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121 (SAB 121), a rule that previously made crypto custody financially unattractive for public companies. SAB 121 required firms to record crypto holdings as liabilities on their balance sheets, a requirement that deterred many from entering the space. With this hurdle removed, companies are now more willing to allocate capital to Bitcoin, viewing it as a hedge against inflation and a potential driver of shareholder value. Strategy’s success, in particular, has been a proof of concept—since it began accumulating Bitcoin in 2020, the company’s stock has soared, often outperforming the cryptocurrency itself on a risk-adjusted basis.

From my perspective, the convergence of these macro and crypto developments paints a picture of a market at a crossroads. On one hand, the improving global risk sentiment and signs of tariff relief are providing a tailwind for equities and risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The MSCI US index’s 0.8 per cent gain today, led by a 2.2 per cent surge in the Real Estate sector, reflects this optimism, as does the resilience of Asian equities.

On the other hand, the specter of new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, coupled with the SEC’s cautious approach to crypto ETFs, reminds us that structural risks remain. The crypto market, in particular, is a microcosm of this duality—while Bitcoin’s bullish metrics and corporate adoption are encouraging, the massive whale withdrawal and regulatory delays highlight the volatility and uncertainty that still define the space.

I can’t help but feel a mix of excitement and caution about where we’re headed. Bitcoin’s trajectory, in particular, feels like a litmus test for the broader adoption of digital assets. The fact that companies such as Strategy and Metaplanet are doubling down on BTC amid trade war concerns suggests that corporate treasuries see it as a viable hedge against macroeconomic turbulence—a narrative that’s gaining traction. Yet, the SEC’s delay on in-kind ETF creations is a reminder that the path to mainstream acceptance is fraught with regulatory hurdles. For investors, the key will be to navigate this landscape with a clear-eyed understanding of both the opportunities and the risks.

In conclusion, today’s market wrap reveals a world where hope and uncertainty coexist in equal measure. Trump’s tariff reprieve has lifted spirits, but the threat of new levies looms large. Bitcoin’s resurgence and corporate adoption are bright spots in the crypto space, but whale movements and regulatory delays serve as sobering reminders of the sector’s volatility.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-a-tale-of-tariffs-bitcoin-whales-and-corporate-crypto-adoption-20250415/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Corporate Investment Times (November 2022): Turning You Into An NFT Hero

Corporate Investment Times (November 2022): Turning You Into An NFT Hero

Anndy Lian is a serial entrepreneur based in Singapore. He is always trying to work hard in the crypto and blockchain industry. When I first met him, he was actively investing in Layer 1 blockchains. Then he was advising a sovereign wealth fund and was the chairperson at an Esports association. He is always busy.

 

His journey started in 2017 during the ICO times. He started one of the earliest supply chain blockchain companies back then and moved on to advising governments as he felt that there were too many dodgy businesses going on in the crypto scene.

 

He is a fund manager and partner at a local capital market services licensed firm. He is a philanthropist, giving back to society by donating and spending time serving his Singapore community. His servant leadership and attitude is well-liked by his peers.

 

His latest book, “NFT: From Zero to Hero”, is aligned with what he does. He likes the technology behind NFT and never likes how projects are managing NFTs as if it is like a valueless Ponzi scheme. That is also why Anndy chooses to launch the book after the hype and not during the hype. He believes that this is the right time to launch a book to tell everyone about the good and bad of NFT and how the market is changing and building stronger than ever at the same time.

 

During this interview, he emphasized a few points. Firstly, he wants all to know that mastering the logic behind NFT is not difficult. You need only the correct mindset and set up clear purposes when creating the NFTs. There is also a lot of information online for you to read about, and there is no reason why you cannot understand it.

 

Secondly, he said that there are many good tools online to help you decide what you can consider buying. He has spent time using some of the tools and listed a handful in his book that he thinks are useful. “Instead of guessing what NFT to buy, use the statistics to aid your decision,” Anndy said.

 

Anndy also went on to share that data could be contradicting. For example, 10,000 NFTs were sold, but when you look at the on-chain wallet addresses, only 10 of them exist. These are the small details you need to catch when making a decision.

 

Thirdly, he wants people who read his book and look at the trends ahead. The general public knowledge is very superficial. Many people think that NFT is a quick money scheme and we are purely selling “air”. “The fact that NFT is not just about a jpeg profile picture is not known to many. This is disturbing.”

 

According to Anndy, we can look at creating medical platforms using NFTs and empowering patients with the ability to control their medical records. We can look at digitizing land title deeds using NFT too. “The NFT usage scenarios are limitless.”

 

I also took the chance to ask Anndy what we should invest in next. He said to follow the simple rules- Consider investing in projects with good utility, strong community, and always building. “If they do not have the above, there is no need to consider who is on their cap table and how strong their team is. Assuming they have a working tech solution.”

 

Lian added that some people said that investing in Layer 1 blockchain is a sure win is totally wrong. He said starting layer 1 is not difficult; sustaining it with good usage is the challenging part. You need a lot more money to make it work compared to layer 2.

 

He said that, similarly, some people hate meme coins and said they have no value. “I don’t see eye to eye on this. The value of a meme coin is in its community and the core team. If the community is strong, anything can happen.” He added that bad management is one of the core reasons why meme coins fail. “The tell-tale signs are obvious.”

 

Just like the same old Anndy we see on Twitter. He ended by saying, “not financial advice”.

 

Anndy Lian’s new book has sold more than 8,000 copies during its launch at Bybit NFT marketplace. He has subsequently listed them on leading platforms like Amazon and Google books. At the point of this interview, he told me that he had appointed a Singapore distributor who would put his books in major bookstores in the South East Asia region.

 

I also read that he was awarded an Honorary Doctoral Degree by the Academic Council of Ulaanbaatar Erdem University in recognition of his contribution to the development of productivity science in Mongolia. He is also completing his PhD soon.

 

Congratulations Anndy.

 

Source:

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j