October 24th, 2025

CPI countdown: How Friday’s inflation data could make or break the crypto rally

Recent market movements reflect a cautious optimism that hinges on several interlocking variables, none more pivotal than the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. With core CPI projected to rise 0.3 per cent month-over-month, marking the third consecutive month at that pace, and annual core inflation holding steady at 3.1 per cent, investors are navigating a narrow corridor between hope for monetary easing and fear of persistent price pressures. This tension is evident across both traditional and digital markets, where risk appetite has improved but remains fragile.

Equity markets responded positively to signals of thawing US-China relations, as the White House confirmed that former President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his Asia tour. Though Trump is not currently in office, the symbolic weight of such a meeting, combined with broader expectations of de-escalation in trade tensions, lifted sentiment.

US equities posted gains across the board on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 0.31 per cent, the S&P 500 up 0.58 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite leading the charge with a 0.89 per cent advance, driven largely by technology stocks. This tech-led rally underscores a persistent dynamic. Bitcoin and other risk assets continue to trade in close correlation with the Nasdaq-100, currently exhibiting a 0.61 correlation coefficient. As such, any volatility in the tech sector will likely spill over into crypto markets.

Simultaneously, Treasury yields moved higher in anticipation of Friday’s CPI release. The 10-year yield rose by 5.2 basis points to 4.001 per cent, while the 2-year yield climbed 4.4 basis points to 3.489 per cent. These moves reflect investors recalibrating their expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Markets now assign a 98.3 per cent probability to a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, a dramatic shift fuelled partly by the delayed CPI report and partly by perceived regulatory leniency.

Reports circulated that Trump pardoned Changpeng Zhao, the founder of Binance. While the veracity of that pardon claim warrants scrutiny given Trump’s current non-presidential status, the market interpreted it as a signal of reduced regulatory hostility toward major crypto players. This perception alone has been enough to ease anxiety and encourage capital deployment.

The US Dollar Index edged up marginally to 98.936, a modest gain of 0.04 per cent, while gold rose 0.68 per cent to US$4,126.28 per ounce, a notable level that reflects both safe-haven demand and inflation hedging ahead of the CPI print. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged 5.4 per cent to US$65.99 per barrel following the enforcement of US sanctions on leading Russian oil firms, adding another layer of macro uncertainty through potential energy price volatility.

Within the crypto sphere, the past 24 hours saw a 1.96 per cent increase in total market capitalisation, extending a weekly gain of 1.44 per cent. Despite this momentum, the market remains 3.87 per cent below its 30-day high, suggesting that while sentiment has stabilised, full bullish conviction has yet to return. Three primary forces are driving this rebound. Binance’s reinforced market dominance, improving macro conditions, and renewed excitement around decentralised finance innovation, particularly around stablecoin design and real-world asset tokenisation, all contribute to the current uplift.

Binance’s role in this rally cannot be overstated. The exchange reported US$2.55 trillion in monthly futures trading volume, according to CoinMarketCap, and captured a staggering 87 per cent of Bitcoin futures taker volume. Its spot market share has climbed to 41.1 per cent, with institutional inflows concentrating in BTC/USDT pairs. This dominance signals a significant shift in market psychology.

After the collapse of FTX, users and institutions alike grew wary of centralised exchange counterparty risk. Binance’s ability to not only survive its own regulatory reckoning but also expand its liquidity depth has restored a measure of trust. Capital is flowing back, not just from retail, but from institutional players seeking reliable on and off ramps. The upcoming relaunch of WazirX on October 24, with zero-fee trading, could further catalyse retail participation, especially in emerging markets where cost sensitivity remains high.

On the macro front, the delayed CPI report has created a temporary window of ambiguity that markets are exploiting for risk-taking. With inflation expectations anchored around 3.1 per cent year-over-year for core CPI, traders are betting that the Fed will pivot toward easing as early as next week.

Historically, lower interest rates weaken the US dollar and boost non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold. The tight correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 complicates this narrative. If tech stocks stumble, perhaps on disappointing earnings or hawkish Fed commentary, crypto could quickly lose its footing, regardless of monetary policy shifts.

Perhaps the most forward-looking driver of current market dynamics lies in DeFi innovation. Solana’s ecosystem has gained attention with the launch of USX, a yield-bearing stablecoin developed by SolsticeFi. Unlike traditional algorithmic or fiat-collateralised stablecoins, USX employs a proof-of-reserve model verified by Chainlink oracles, enhancing transparency and trust. Social mentions of USX surged 67 per cent, indicating strong community and developer interest. This innovation arrives at a critical time, as the stablecoin sector seeks alternatives to centralised models following repeated regulatory crackdowns.

Concurrently, Ethereum shows technical signs of recovery, with its 14-day Relative Strength Index at 48.38, below the neutral 50 mark but with room to run if it breaches the US$3,900 resistance level. Institutional-grade DeFi applications are also gaining traction, exemplified by T-RIZE’s US$300 million real estate tokenisation initiative, which bridges traditional finance with blockchain infrastructure.

Despite these positive developments, caution remains warranted. Bitcoin’s market dominance stands at 59.3 per cent, a level that typically signals investor preference for safety within the crypto space and hesitation toward altcoins. This suggests that while capital is returning, it is doing so selectively. Ethereum and Solana benefit from strong narratives, including scalability, institutional adoption, and novel financial primitives, but they must contend with Bitcoin’s gravitational pull.

The immediate future hinges on Friday’s CPI data. A print below 3.1 per cent year-over-year for core inflation would likely validate the market’s dovish expectations, potentially extending the current rally across equities, crypto, and commodities. A hotter-than-expected number could trigger a sharp reversal, as it would force a reassessment of Fed policy and reignite fears of prolonged high rates. In such a scenario, even Binance’s liquidity depth and DeFi’s innovation might not be enough to sustain momentum.

In conclusion, today’s market wrap reveals a complex interplay of short-term catalysts and long-term structural trends. The crypto market is no longer an isolated domain. It responds acutely to macroeconomic signals, regulatory whispers, and technological breakthroughs. Binance’s dominance provides a foundation of liquidity, easing macro fears offer temporary tailwinds, and DeFi’s evolution promises sustainable growth beyond speculative cycles.

The path forward remains contingent on external data, most immediately the CPI report, that will either confirm the market’s optimism or expose its fragility. Investors would do well to balance enthusiasm with vigilance, recognising that in this new era of interconnected finance, no asset class moves in isolation.

Source: https://e27.co/cpi-countdown-how-fridays-inflation-data-could-make-or-break-the-crypto-rally-20251024/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

October 20th, 2025

From PMIs to CPI: The data that could make or break crypto’s rally

In the current macroeconomic landscape of October 2025, the world finds itself in a precarious balancing act between fading momentum in major economies and the uncertain ripple effects of fiscal and monetary policy shifts. With the United States in the midst of a federal government shutdown that began on October 1, the usual flow of official economic data has been disrupted, leaving market participants increasingly reliant on private-sector indicators.

Among these, the flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for October have assumed outsized importance. Scheduled for release during the week of October 20 across all major developed economies, these preliminary surveys offer the earliest glimpse into whether the modest growth seen in September can be sustained or whether deeper structural weaknesses are emerging.

The United States, long the standout performer among advanced economies, now faces growing scrutiny over the durability of its expansion. Although the Federal Open Market Committee delivered its first interest rate cut of the year in September, hopes that this would catalyse a renewed upswing are tempered by underlying vulnerabilities. The boost from tariff front-running appears to be waning, and growth remains disproportionately concentrated in financial services and technology sectors.

Compounding the uncertainty is the delayed release of official inflation data. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI), originally due earlier in October, is now expected on October 24, with forecasts pointing to a rise from 2.9 per cent to 3.1 per cent. However, recent PMI data have shown some easing in tariff-related cost pressures, suggesting that if this trend continues into October, it could presage a moderation in headline inflation in the months ahead.

Meanwhile, Europe presents a mixed picture. The eurozone recorded its fastest pace of business activity growth in 16 months in September, a promising signal that the bloc may be regaining some traction. Yet this momentum must be weighed against significant political headwinds, most notably the ongoing crisis in France, which risks undermining consumer and business confidence. In Germany, there is cautious optimism that fiscal measures could stimulate domestic demand, but the net effect on regional growth remains to be seen. The UK, for its part, is navigating a fragile recovery.

September’s PMI data indicated that the economic upturn had nearly stalled, accompanied by substantial job losses. On the inflation front, there is a glimmer of hope. Survey-based measures of price growth have moderated compared to the first half of the year, which should translate into softer official CPI figures in the coming months. Nevertheless, the August CPI reading stood at 3.8 per cent, with core inflation at 3.6 per cent, both well above the Bank of England’s two per cent target, leaving policymakers in a difficult position.

In Asia, mainland China’s economic slowdown has become more pronounced. According to a Reuters consensus, third-quarter GDP growth is expected to have decelerated to 4.8 per cent year-over-year, down from 5.2 per cent in the second quarter. This marks the weakest pace of expansion in a year, driven by a persistent property sector slump, ongoing trade tensions, and tepid domestic demand. The data underscores the challenges Beijing faces in meeting its full-year growth target of “around five per cent” and intensifies calls for more aggressive stimulus measures.

Against this complex macro backdrop, the cryptocurrency market has exhibited a characteristic blend of volatility and forward-looking speculation. Over the past 24 hours, the market has risen by 2.82 per cent, a rebound that appears to be fuelled more by anticipation than by concrete developments.

A key driver of this optimism is the positioning ahead of the delayed US CPI release. Traders are betting on a softer-than-expected inflation print, which could bolster the case for further Federal Reserve rate cuts and create a more favourable environment for risk assets. This sentiment is reflected in Bitcoin’s rising correlation with gold, which has climbed to +0.35, signalling a shared role as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical uncertainty.

A significant structural catalyst has also emerged from Japan. The country’s Financial Services Agency has proposed a landmark regulatory shift that would allow banks to hold and trade cryptocurrencies. This move, which follows initiatives like Mitsubishi UFJ’s stablecoin project, represents a major step toward mainstream institutional adoption.

Given Japan’s banking sector manages assets worth approximately US$5 trillion, this regulatory pivot could unlock a vast new pool of capital for the crypto ecosystem. This potential is further amplified by the yen’s persistent weakness, having depreciated by nine per cent against the US dollar year-to-date, which incentivises Japanese investors to seek alternative stores of value.

However, the market’s fragility is laid bare by the dynamics of leveraged trading. CoinGlass data reveals that over US$510 million in Bitcoin short positions are clustered above the US$112,000 price level, creating the potential for a powerful short squeeze if the price can sustain a breakout.

While funding rates have turned slightly positive, indicating renewed interest from leveraged longs, this optimism is counterbalanced by a stark reality. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States experienced a staggering $1.23 billion in net outflows during the week ending October 17, the second-largest weekly outflow in history. This persistent capital flight from the most regulated and institutional-facing segment of the market suggests a deep-seated caution among traditional investors.

Sentiment indicators further validate this caution. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 30, firmly in the “Fear” territory. This level of anxiety, combined with the massive ETF outflows, acts as a powerful counterweight to the bullish narratives. The market is at a critical juncture.

A successful hold above US$110,000, followed by a break above the US$112,000 liquidation cluster, could trigger a powerful short squeeze and reignite a broader rally. Conversely, a failure to maintain this level could quickly reverse the recent gains and re-ignite the month-to-date downtrend, which currently stands at -7.1 per cent.

In conclusion, the current market environment is defined by a tension between hopeful macro speculation and sobering on-chain and fund flow realities. The flash PMI data will be a crucial barometer for the health of the real economy, while the delayed US CPI will be the immediate trigger for market direction.

Japan’s regulatory overture offers a long-term structural tailwind, but in the short term, the crypto market’s fate appears to hinge on the interplay between Fed policy expectations and the willingness of institutional capital to return to the space. Until the fear dissipates and ETF outflows reverse, any rally is likely to remain fragile and vulnerable to sharp corrections.

Source: https://e27.co/from-pmis-to-cpi-the-data-that-could-make-or-break-cryptos-rally-20251020/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

September 23rd, 2025

Survive the chop, ride the wave: Why Q4 could deliver a surge in tech and digital assets

Recent announcements from major tech players, such as NVIDIA’s massive commitments to OpenAI and Intel, have sparked widespread enthusiasm about AI’s potential to drive economic growth. These deals, totalling over US$100 billion in some estimates, underscore a broader trend where companies pour resources into AI infrastructure, expecting transformative returns in efficiency and innovation.

This wave of investment has lifted equity markets, particularly in Asia and the US, where tech-heavy indices lead the charge. Investors see AI as a catalyst that could sustain rallies even amid economic uncertainties, fuelling a risk-on environment that extends beyond traditional stocks into commodities and digital assets.

Fed’s first rate cut of 2025

The Federal Reserve’s recent actions add another layer to this positive sentiment. Last week, the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00 per cent to 4.25 per cent, marking the first cut of 2025 and signalling a pivot toward easing. This move came after months of speculation, with markets pricing in the change well in advance.

In his post-meeting press conference, Chair Jerome Powell described the adjustment as a precautionary step to bolster the labour market, emphasising that inflation risks have diminished while employment concerns grow. He noted a curious balance in the job market, with unemployment at 4.3 per cent and slower job gains, but stressed that the cut aims to prevent further weakening without reigniting price pressures.

Today, Powell delivers another speech on the economic outlook, which traders anticipate will provide clues about the pace of future easing. His comments could either reinforce the bullish mood or introduce caution if he highlights persistent challenges like tariff impacts or global tensions.

Diverging voices within the Fed

Divergent views among Fed officials highlight the nuanced path ahead. Newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran, in his inaugural policy speech, argued forcefully that current rates remain overly restrictive, potentially risking higher unemployment if not lowered aggressively. Appointed by President Trump, Miran positions himself as an outlier, suggesting the benchmark rate sits far above neutral levels and calls for swift reductions to stimulate growth.

In contrast, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem endorsed the recent 25-basis-point cut as a safeguard for the labor market but warned of limited scope for additional moves. He views the economy as resilient, with inflation trending toward the two per cent target, and advocates a measured approach to avoid overstimulating demand.

These contrasting stances reflect internal debates at the Fed, where the dot plot from the latest meeting shows a split on 2025 projections. Some officials foresee one more cut, while others expect two, but many anticipate a pause thereafter. Markets will scrutinise Powell’s remarks for resolution, as his guidance often sets the tone for asset prices.

Wall Street rides the momentum

Wall Street captured this optimism on Monday, extending its rally with tech stocks at the forefront. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14 per cent, the S&P 500 climbed 0.44 per cent, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.70 per cent, reflecting broad-based gains driven by AI enthusiasm. Treasury yields ticked higher amid the Fed’s cautious rhetoric, with the 10-year note up 1.9 basis points to 4.147 per cent and the two-year yield increasing 3.1 basis points to 3.603 per cent.

This slight uptick suggests investors temper expectations for deep easing, focusing instead on balanced growth. The US dollar index slipped 0.31 per cent to 97.341, easing pressure on exports and commodities. Gold surged 1.7 per cent to a record US$3,746.70 per ounce, benefiting from sustained rate-cut bets and a weaker dollar.

Brent crude, however, dipped 0.2 per cent to US$66.57 per barrel, as oversupply fears overshadowed geopolitical risks in Russia and the Middle East. Asian equities showed mixed results on Monday but opened higher today, though Japanese markets closed for the Autumnal Equinox holiday. US futures point to a flat open, indicating a pause as participants await Powell’s insights.

Crypto pullback amid heavy liquidations

The cryptocurrency market presents a stark contrast, enduring a sharp pullback on Tuesday that erased recent gains. The total crypto market capitalisation fell two per cent to around US$3.9 trillion, with Bitcoin dropping toward US$112,000 amid heavy liquidations.

Over the past 24 hours, US$1.7 billion in positions liquidated, mostly longs, marking the year’s largest such event and accelerating the sell-off as leveraged trades unwound. Bitcoin traded down 1.8 per cent near US$112,561, Ethereum slid 3.3 per cent to US$4,197, BNB declined four per cent to US$991.3, and Solana tumbled 6.2 per cent to US$219.03. This downturn followed an initial boost from the Fed’s rate cut, which propelled altcoins over the weekend, but momentum faded quickly.

The announcement from the defunct FTX exchange about starting its third distribution of US$1.6 billion to claim holders on September 30 likely contributed to the cooling sentiment, as it introduces potential selling pressure from recipients cashing out. Despite the dip, macro signals remain supportive, with the Fed’s easing cycle expected to enhance liquidity and attract risk capital back into digital assets.

ETF inflows highlight institutional confidence

Bright spots emerge in crypto fund flows, offering a counterpoint to the volatility. Last week, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded US$556 million in net inflows, boosting total net assets to US$29.6 billion, according to data from SoSoValue. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew US$886.6 million, elevating assets to US$152.31 billion.

These inflows, continuing a four-week streak totalling US$3.9 billion for crypto funds overall, demonstrate sustained institutional interest even as prices fluctuate. Bitcoin ETFs alone saw US$887 million in the week ending September 19, underscoring confidence in the asset as a hedge against traditional market risks.

Ethereum funds outperformed in some sessions, with US$307 million in one day, suggesting rotation toward alternatives as Bitcoin consolidates. This capital influx aligns with broader trends, where lower rates make yield-generating crypto strategies more appealing compared to fixed-income options.

Bitcoin’s role in corporate balance sheets

Corporate developments further illustrate Bitcoin’s growing role as a treasury asset. Strive, Inc. and Semler Scientific announced a merger in an all-stock deal, valuing Semler at a 210 per cent premium, or approximately US$90.52 per share, based on the closing prices of September 19.

Semler shareholders receive 21.05 Strive Class A shares each, combining their Bitcoin holdings into a post-merger treasury exceeding 10,900 coins. Strive added 5,816 Bitcoin at an average US$116,047 per coin, totalling 5,886, enhancing the entity’s balance sheet with digital reserves. Separately, Bitcoin miner CleanSpark expanded its credit facility with Coinbase Prime by US$100 million, backed by its holdings.

With a market cap of US$3.84 billion and shares up 48 per cent year-to-date, CleanSpark plans to use the funds for energy portfolio growth, mining expansion, and high-performance computing. CEO Matt Schultz highlighted the move as a step toward diversifying data centre uses, supported by a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 4.37.

Outlook: Resilient but volatile

In my view, the current landscape points to a resilient yet volatile path forward for global markets. The Fed’s easing, coupled with AI-driven investment fervour, creates fertile ground for risk assets to thrive, potentially propelling equities and crypto to new heights in the fourth quarter.

Mixed Fed signals introduce short-term uncertainty. Miran’s aggressive stance could embolden bulls if adopted, while Musalem’s caution tempers over-exuberance. Crypto’s recent dip, fuelled by liquidations and FTX news, feels like a temporary flush amid strong ETF inflows and corporate adoption trends.

Companies like Strive and CleanSpark are treating Bitcoin as a core asset, signalling maturing institutional confidence, which could stabilise prices over time. Overall, I remain optimistic: survive the chop, and the liquidity wave from policy shifts might ignite a sustained bull run, rewarding those who position early in tech and digital innovations.

Source: https://e27.co/survive-the-chop-ride-the-wave-why-q4-could-deliver-a-surge-in-tech-and-digital-assets-20250923/