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Bitcoin holds US$71K as Ethereum surges 15%: What’s driving the US$2.44T crypto rally

Bitcoin holds US$71K as Ethereum surges 15%: What’s driving the US$2.44T crypto rally

The digital asset market edged higher, climbing 0.63 per cent to reach a total capitalisation of US$2.44T over the past 24 hours. This modest advance reflects a market searching for direction amid competing forces, with momentum in the Ethereum ecosystem and institutional staking flows providing the primary lift. The move shows a moderate 50 per cent correlation with the S&P 500, which itself rose 0.5 per cent to approximately 6,591.90, suggesting that macro drivers continue to influence both traditional and digital asset classes.

Ethereum’s ecosystem stands out as the clear leader, with its market capitalisation surging by 15.58 per cent over the past 24 hours. This outperformance stems from concrete institutional activity rather than speculative fervour. BitMine Immersion Technologies launched MAVAN, an institutional Ethereum staking platform that now holds over 3.14M ETH, representing roughly US$6.8B in committed capital. This development matters because it channels yield-seeking institutional money into the network, reducing immediate sell pressure and reinforcing Ethereum’s role as a core settlement layer. The ongoing dialogue around Ethereum’s L1 and L2 strategy further strengthens this narrative, positioning the network as foundational infrastructure rather than merely a speculative vehicle. When large players allocate billions toward staking, they signal confidence in the protocol’s long-term value accrual, and that confidence tends to ripple through the broader market.

Derivatives data support a healthier backdrop for this advance. Total open interest rose 3.34 per cent while Bitcoin liquidations fell 49 per cent to US$44.92M, indicating that the recent squeeze on over-leveraged positions has eased. The average funding rate remains positive at 0.0017 per cent, indicating balanced leverage rather than excessive bullish speculation. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index ticked up to 36, still in Fear territory but a notable improvement from extreme levels. These metrics suggest that spot buying and staking activity, not leveraged gambling, drive the current uptick. I view this as a constructive shift because markets advance more sustainably when grounded in real demand rather than fleeting leverage. A sustained drop in liquidation volumes and stabilisation of funding rates would further confirm that the market foundation is strengthening.

The near-term trajectory hinges on clear technical levels and upcoming catalysts. Bitcoin must hold above US$71,000 to maintain bullish momentum, while the total market cap needs to stay above the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement support at US$2.41T. A confirmed break above the US$2.49T resistance, which aligns with the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci level, could open a path toward US$2.56T. Conversely, failing to hold US$2.41T would invalidate the bounce and likely trigger a retest of lower support near US$2.33T. The potential launch of Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF, ticker MSBT, represents a key upcoming catalyst that could influence institutional flows. I watch these levels closely because they reflect not just price action but the market’s collective assessment of risk and opportunity. Technical structure matters most when it aligns with fundamental drivers, and right now, Ethereum staking inflows provide that alignment.

Traditional markets provided a supportive backdrop for this crypto advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7 per cent, adding 305.43 points to close at 46,429.49, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8 per cent to 21,929.83, supported by strength in AI-related technology stocks like Nvidia and AMD. European indices posted strong gains, with the FTSE 100 rising 1.42 per cent, the DAX advancing 1.41 per cent, and the CAC 40 climbing 1.33 per cent. Asian markets showed mixed but generally positive performance, with the Nikkei 225 surging 3.08 per cent to 53,860 points, the Straits Times Index gaining 1.10 per cent, and the Hang Seng rising 0.88 per cent. This global equity strength reflects cautious optimism about geopolitical developments, including reports that the United States delivered a potential ceasefire plan to Iran, easing some immediate fears of a wider Middle East conflict. I note that crypto’s moderate correlation with equities means it can benefit from this risk-on sentiment while still responding to its own unique catalysts.

Commodity and currency markets added nuance to the macro picture. Brent Crude rose slightly to US$102.97 per barrel, up 0.74 per cent on the day, indicating that energy supply concerns persist even as geopolitical tensions ease. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.38 per cent, reflecting investor expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer, which typically pressures risk assets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2 per cent as the euro and pound weakened slightly against the greenback, suggesting some safe-haven demand for the US currency. Bitcoin traded around US$70,727, up one per cent, aligning with the broader crypto market advance. I see these cross-asset moves as important context because they shape the liquidity environment in which digital assets operate. When Treasury yields rise and the dollar strengthens, crypto faces headwinds, and the current advance shows that ecosystem-specific catalysts can offset broader macro pressure.

Labour market data and global economic outlooks also influence investor positioning. US initial jobless claims were expected at 211K, signalling a cooling but still resilient labour market, which affects Federal Reserve policy expectations. The OECD released its Interim Economic Outlook, highlighting the shift towards embedded finance as a structural market driver, a trend that directly intersects with blockchain and digital asset adoption. I view embedded finance as a critical frontier because it represents the seamless integration of financial services into everyday digital experiences, and blockchain technology enables the transparency and efficiency that this integration demands. When major institutions acknowledge these structural shifts, it reinforces the long-term case for decentralised infrastructure, even if short-term price action remains volatile.

The key question centres on whether institutional staking demand continues to grow and whether Bitcoin can sustain its key support levels amid ongoing macro uncertainty. Will Ethereum’s role as a yield-generating asset attract enough capital to offset broader headwinds from elevated Treasury yields and a strong dollar? For now, the data supports a constructive but measured outlook, with clear levels to watch and catalysts to monitor as the market navigates this complex macro landscape.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-holds-us71k-as-ethereum-surges-15-whats-driving-the-us2-44t-crypto-rally-20260326/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

AI stocks soar while crypto bleeds: What’s really driving the great market divergence?

AI stocks soar while crypto bleeds: What’s really driving the great market divergence?

Despite a wave of optimism in mainstream financial markets following Nvidia’s robust earnings report and bullish forward guidance, the cryptocurrency market has charted a markedly different course. While the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones posted modest but clear gains, crypto traders navigated a landscape of institutional retreat, forced deleveraging, and growing scepticism around altcoin fundamentals.

The disconnect between AI-driven equity euphoria and crypto caution underscores a critical juncture. As traditional markets celebrate the next phase of artificial intelligence integration, digital asset markets confront a confluence of macro headwinds and structural vulnerabilities.

Crypto’s recent underperformance lies in a record-breaking institutional outflow. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust recorded a single-day withdrawal of US$523 million, the largest since its January 2024 debut. This outflow did not occur in isolation. US spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively shed US$1.3 billion in assets under management over the past week, a direct response to diminishing hopes for a December Federal Reserve rate cut.

Market participants now assign only a 27 per cent probability to such a move, a sharp reversal from the more dovish expectations held just weeks prior. For a market increasingly tethered to traditional financial sentiment, with crypto-equity correlations hovering near 0.65, the withdrawal of institutional capital has stripped away a critical support layer. When institutions step back, retail traders rarely fill the void with sufficient conviction, especially in volatile environments.

Compounding this institutional caution is a cascade of leveraged liquidations. Over US$127 million in Bitcoin long positions were forcibly closed in a short window, intensifying downward price pressure as Bitcoin dipped below the psychologically significant US$90,000 mark. This deleveraging occurred against a backdrop of rising open interest in crypto derivatives, which climbed 10.4 per cent to US$889 billion, suggesting that many new positions were opened on borrowed capital.

When volatility spikes or sentiment shifts, such positions become vulnerable. The result is a feedback loop. Price drops trigger margin calls, which force more selling, which pushes prices lower still. The market’s emotional state reflects this stress. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 15, entering the Extreme Fear zone, the lowest reading since March 2025. Technical indicators like the RSI14 at 37.95 signal oversold conditions, but they provide no clear reversal signal, leaving traders in a state of anxious limbo.

Altcoins have fared even worse, revealing the fragility of speculative narratives when liquidity dries up. Solana, once heralded as a high-throughput alternative to Ethereum, plunged 11.47 per cent over the week after Forward Industries, its largest corporate holder, transferred US$201 million worth of SOL to Coinbase Prime. Such large movements of tokens to exchange wallets are often interpreted as preludes to selling, igniting panic among retail holders. BNB and XRP mirrored these losses, declining 4.81 per cent and 12.14 per cent, respectively.

The Altcoin Season Index now stands at 27, well below the 75 threshold that typically signals a broad-based rally in alternative cryptocurrencies. This metric confirms what price action already suggests. It is firmly Bitcoin’s market, and even Bitcoin is struggling to hold ground.

Meanwhile, the macroeconomic backdrop offers little comfort. US Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year at 4.14 per cent and the 2-year at 3.59 per cent. Fed officials have openly pushed back against rate-cut expectations, and the delay in key US jobs data further clouds the policy outlook.

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar remains firm, while the Japanese yen hovers near 157.2, perilously close to levels that could trigger government intervention. Gold, often a refuge in uncertain times, holds just above US$4,000, reflecting a mixed risk environment where some investors hedge while others chase AI-linked equities.

The divergence between traditional tech and crypto markets raises a fundamental question. Is AI optimism truly a rising tide that lifts all boats, or does it primarily benefit assets with deep institutional integration and clear cash flow narratives? Nvidia’s forecast, projecting US$203 billion in annual revenue, speaks to tangible, near-term AI infrastructure demand.

Its chips power the data centres that train large language models and run inference workloads. Bitcoin and Solana, by contrast, offer no earnings, no dividends, and uncertain regulatory pathways. In a regime of higher-for-longer rates, such assets become less attractive relative to yield-bearing instruments or equities with demonstrable growth.

For investors, the path forward demands discipline. In equities, tech exposure remains compelling but warrants selectivity. In crypto, the current environment favours caution. Traders should monitor Bitcoin ETF flows closely. A reversal from outflows to inflows could signal renewed institutional appetite, especially if softer jobs data revives rate-cut hopes.

Similarly, sustained negative funding rates in perpetual futures markets might indicate capitulation and a potential short-term bottom. Until then, the market’s Extreme Fear reading is not just a metric. It is a warning. The AI boom may be real, but its benefits are not yet flowing into digital asset markets. Instead, crypto finds itself caught in a perfect storm of macro uncertainty, institutional hesitation, and speculative excess unwinding. The rally elsewhere is a reminder of what crypto could be, but not what it is today.

 

Source: https://e27.co/ai-stocks-soar-while-crypto-bleeds-whats-really-driving-the-great-market-divergence-20251120/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

S&P 500 eyes 7000, gold at US$4113, Bitcoin breaks US$115K: Here’s what’s driving the surge

S&P 500 eyes 7000, gold at US$4113, Bitcoin breaks US$115K: Here’s what’s driving the surge

The S&P 500, currently trading in the high 6700s as of late October 2025, hovers just below the psychologically significant 7000 threshold. A credible and durable US-China trade agreement could propel the index toward that level by year-end, a move representing a 2.8 per cent upside from current levels.

Such optimism remains contingent on tangible outcomes rather than mere rhetoric. The market’s advance hinges not only on macro diplomacy but also on the micro-level performance of 177 companies reporting earnings this week. Only consistent beat-and-raise guidance, where firms exceed earnings expectations and raise forward-looking forecasts, will sustain the fragile momentum. Without such confirmation, the rally risks unravelling under the weight of its own narrow breadth and elevated leverage.

Gold continues to serve as a strategic hedge amid rising macro uncertainty. Technical analysis points to structured accumulation zones at 3700 dollars and 3500 dollars, levels that have repeatedly attracted institutional and algorithmic buying. Despite an environment of loose monetary conditions and accelerating inflation expectations, correlated at plus 28 per cent with M2 money supply growth, portfolio allocations to gold remain strikingly low.

Only 2.4 per cent of fund managers hold more than five per cent of their assets in gold, suggesting significant room for reallocation if inflation proves persistent or if geopolitical tensions escalate. The metal’s recent consolidation near US$4113 per ounce reflects this tension between fundamental tailwinds and tepid institutional demand, a divergence that often precedes sharp re-pricing.

China’s evolving economic strategy adds another layer of complexity. The 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 formally pivots away from the old growth model centred on property and infrastructure toward human capital development and domestic consumption. This shift is more than semantic. The term consumption appears four times in the latest Communist Party Plenum Communiqué, compared to just once in 2020, signalling a deliberate policy recalibration.

Property, once the engine of Chinese growth, remains under regulatory scrutiny and is unlikely to receive meaningful stimulus, especially as exports continue to outperform. Instead, Beijing prioritises technological self-reliance and innovation, aiming for a sustainable 4.5 per cent annual growth rate through productivity gains rather than debt-fuelled asset bubbles. For global investors, this transition implies that Chinese equities may offer value but with heightened volatility tied to policy execution and external trade dynamics.

The US equity market, in contrast, has become increasingly concentrated. Performance is now effectively a binary bet on the success of artificial intelligence monetization within the MAG7 cohort, those mega-cap tech firms generating multi-billion-dollar free cash flows. Public AI plays appear safer than their private counterparts, like OpenAI or Anthropic, which remain unprofitable and lack a clear killer app to justify their valuations.

Even among public firms, the path to AI-driven revenue remains elusive. This narrow leadership amplifies systemic risk, particularly as leveraged ETFs magnify both upside and downside moves. A barbell strategy, pairing large-cap growth exposure with high-dividend yield stocks, remains prudent, especially when considering Japan’s continued commitment to Abenomics 3.0 under Prime Minister Takaichi, which supports regional diversification.

This week’s volatility triggers are unusually dense. Beyond the FOMC decision and Big Tech earnings, markets must navigate Donald Trump’s visit to Asia, Jensen Huang’s keynote at a major AI conference, and most critically, the Trump-Xi bilateral meeting on October 30 during the APEC summit in South Korea. Early signals suggest progress.

Chinese officials report a preliminary consensus on export controls, fentanyl trafficking, and maritime levies. These incremental steps have already fuelled a cross-asset rally, with Asian equities up 1.5 per cent and US index futures pricing in a 0.6 per cent gap-up at the open. Copper and Brent crude have surged on improved global growth expectations, while the US Dollar Index holds steady at 98.95, reflecting balanced risk sentiment.

The crypto market has surged in tandem, rising 3.62 per cent in 24 hours and 5.91 per cent over the week. This move stems from three reinforcing narratives. First, macro liquidity expectations have intensified as US bank reserves at the Federal Reserve declined to 2.93 trillion dollars, the lowest level since early January, and what analysts like Adam Livingston describe as nearing a danger zone. Historically, such reserve contractions in 2019, 2020, and 2023 preceded Fed interventions and sharp Bitcoin rallies. Markets now price in a 96.7 per cent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the October 28 to 29 FOMC meeting, reinforcing the liquidity pivot thesis.

Second, institutional demand is accelerating. South Korea’s Bitplanet has initiated daily Bitcoin purchases targeting 10,000 BTC, following Metaplanet’s earlier treasury move of 25,555 BTC. Simultaneously, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over 600 million dollars in net inflows last week, drawing approximately 62,000 BTC from exchange cold storage and tightening supply dynamics. This absorption of available supply reduces float and increases scarcity, particularly as Bitcoin dominance dips slightly to 58.84 per cent, indicating capital rotation into altcoins like Ethereum, which gained six per cent against BTC.

Third, technical momentum has ignited a leverage reset. Bitcoin’s breakout above 115,000 dollars, a level confirmed by multiple sources, triggered 350 million dollars in short liquidations, forcing leveraged bears to cover positions rapidly. Open interest in derivatives markets has climbed 6.95 per cent to 903 billion dollars, reflecting renewed speculative activity. However, funding rates have spiked by 105 per cent in 24 hours, and the RSI sits at a neutral 47.49, suggesting the rally may pause for consolidation rather than accelerate further immediately.

In summary, today’s market environment reflects a delicate balance between hope and reality. Macro optimism, fueled by potential US-China détente and anticipated Fed easing, has aligned with institutional crypto accumulation and technical breakouts to drive risk assets higher. The sustainability of this move depends on concrete outcomes: a credible trade deal, consistent earnings beats, and actual monetary policy accommodation.

If the Fed under-delivers or corporate guidance falters, the leveraged nature of current positioning could trigger a sharp reversal. Investors should monitor Bitcoin’s 113,500 dollar support and Ethereum’s 4,000 dollar level as near-term barometers of sentiment. The week ahead will not merely test market resilience. It will define the narrative for the final quarter of 2025.

 

Source: https://e27.co/sp-500-eyes-7000-gold-at-us4113-bitcoin-breaks-us115k-heres-whats-driving-the-surge-20251027/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j