Active ETF and AI: A Promising or Perilous Combination?

Active ETF and AI: A Promising or Perilous Combination?

Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, are popular investment vehicles that offer exposure to a basket of securities, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, or cryptocurrencies. ETFs trade on exchanges like stocks, making them easy and convenient to buy and sell. Most ETFs are passively managed, meaning they track an index or a benchmark and aim to replicate its performance. However, some ETFs are actively managed, meaning they have a fund manager who makes decisions on what securities to include in the portfolio and when to buy or sell them. The goal of active ETFs is to outperform the index or the benchmark, rather than just match it.

Active ETFs have been around for more than a decade, but they have gained more attention and popularity in recent years, thanks to the emergence of new technologies and innovations. One of these innovations is artificial intelligence, or AI, which refers to the ability of machines or software to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence, such as learning, reasoning, and decision making. AI has been applied to various fields and industries, including finance and investing. Some active ETFs have started to use AI as a tool or a strategy to enhance their performance and gain an edge over the market.

But how does AI work in active ETFs? And what are the benefits and risks of this combination? I will offer my point of view on these questions, based on the information I gathered from various sources.

How AI Works in Active ETFs

There are different ways that AI can be used in active ETFs, depending on the type and the objective of the fund. Here are some examples:

  • AI can be used to analyze large amounts of data, such as market trends, economic indicators, company fundamentals, and social media sentiment, and generate insights and predictions that can help the fund manager make better investment decisions. For instance, the AI Powered Equity ETF (NYSE:AIEQ) uses an AI system called IBM Watson to build predictive models on the universe of U.S. equities and identify stocks that have the highest potential for capital appreciation. It is equal to 1,000 research analysts, traders and quants working around the clock.
  • AI can be used to automate the trading process, such as executing orders, rebalancing the portfolio, and adjusting the risk exposure, based on predefined rules and algorithms. This can reduce human errors, biases, and emotions, and increase efficiency and speed. For example, the BTD Capital Fund (NYSE:DIP) uses an AI algorithm to trade U.S. stocks based on momentum, volatility, and trend-following factors.
  • AI can be used to create new and innovative investment strategies, such as using natural language processing to analyze the transcripts of corporate earnings calls and identify signals of future performance, or using machine learning to discover hidden patterns and correlations among different asset classes and markets. For instance, the WisdomTree International AI Enhanced Value Fund (NYSE:AIVI) uses an AI model to enhance the value factor by incorporating alternative data sources, such as patent filings, web traffic, and news sentiment.

What Are the Benefits of AI in Active ETFs

The main benefit of using AI in active ETFs is that it can potentially improve the performance and the returns of the fund, by providing more accurate and timely information, by exploiting market inefficiencies and opportunities, and by adapting to changing market conditions. AI can also lower the cost and the risk of active management, by reducing the need for human intervention, by optimizing the portfolio allocation and the trading execution, and by diversifying the sources of alpha. Furthermore, AI can offer more transparency and accountability, by disclosing the methodology and the rationale behind the investment decisions, and by providing performance attribution and feedback.

Some evidence suggests that AI can indeed enhance the performance. For example, an article on CNBC mentioned that using IBM’s Watson platform, the AI Powered Equity ETF (AIEQ) is among the first ETFs to rely on AI for stock selection. It also mention that the information edge of AI is still unclear, but there are signs that some AI-based funds are doing better than their conventional peers. In another research paper published in 2022 by Rui Chen and Jinjuan Ren, titled ‘Do AI-powered mutual funds perform better’, which examined the broader AI capability in the mutual fund domain. They analysed the prospectuses from the EDGAR database of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. It matched them with AI-powered funds using mutual fund data from the CRSP Survivor-Bias-Free US Mutual Fund Database from January 2009 to December 2019. They discovered that these funds do not beat the market in general. However, a comparison reveals that AI-powered funds outperform human-managed peer funds significantly.

What Are the Risks of AI in Active ETFs

However, using AI in active ETFs also comes with some risks and challenges. One of these risks is that AI is not infallible, and it can make mistakes or errors, especially when dealing with complex, uncertain, and dynamic situations. AI can also be affected by data quality and availability issues, such as noise, bias, or gaps, which can impair its accuracy and reliability. Moreover, AI can be vulnerable to cyberattacks, hacking, or manipulation, which can compromise its security and integrity.

Another risk is that AI can be difficult to understand and explain, especially when using advanced and sophisticated techniques, such as deep learning or neural networks. This can create a lack of trust and confidence among investors, regulators, and auditors, who may not be able to verify or validate the logic and the outcomes of the AI system. This can also raise ethical and legal issues, such as accountability, liability, and fairness, when the AI system makes decisions that have significant impacts or consequences.

A third risk is that AI can create new and unforeseen problems or risks, such as market instability, systemic risk, or social and environmental harm. For example, AI can amplify market volatility and contagion, by triggering feedback loops, herd behavior, or flash crashes, especially when many funds use similar or correlated AI strategies. AI can also disrupt the market structure and the competitive landscape, by creating new winners and losers, by increasing the concentration and the power of a few players, or by displacing or replacing human workers.

Summing Up

In conclusion, active ETFs and AI are a promising or perilous combination, depending on how they are used and regulated.

On the one hand, AI can offer significant advantages and opportunities, by enhancing their performance, lowering their cost and risk, and increasing their transparency and accountability. On the other hand, AI can pose significant challenges and threats, by introducing errors and uncertainties, creating trust and ethical issues, and generating new and unforeseen problems and risks.

Therefore, investors, fund managers, and regulators need to be aware and cautious of the benefits and the risks of AI in active ETFs, and adopt appropriate measures and safeguards to ensure that AI is used in a responsible and sustainable manner. For myself, I hope to see how this will work on Bitcoin ETFs. I will try to collect more data to give you a follow up analysis on that.

 

Source: https://za.investing.com/analysis/active-etf-and-ai-a-promising-or-perilous-combination-200596385

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Harvest Fund’s Spot Bitcoin ETF Application: A Game-Changer for Hong Kong’s Crypto Landscape

Harvest Fund’s Spot Bitcoin ETF Application: A Game-Changer for Hong Kong’s Crypto Landscape

In a groundbreaking move that could reshape Hong Kong’s financial landscape, Harvest Fund Management has officially submitted the first-ever application for a spot Bitcoin ETF to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) on January 26. This development comes hot on the heels of the recent approval of similar ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and marks a pivotal moment for the city’s growing interest in cryptocurrencies.

The SFC has expressed a keen interest in expediting the approval process for Hong Kong’s inaugural spot Bitcoin ETF. Plans are underway to list it on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange shortly after the Chinese New Year in February. This rapid development could set the stage for multiple institutions to enter the market, aligning with the US model where ETF sizes grew rapidly under the influence of key financial players.

While Harvest Fund is the first to apply, several existing crypto companies that launched futures-based ETFs in Hong Kong are expected to follow suit. Samsung Asset Management, known for launching the Samsung Bitcoin Futures ETF in 2023, has expressed openness to exploring a spot ETF. Other financial firms such as Venture Smart Financial Holdings have shown interest in applying for a spot crypto ETF too.

Moreover, Harvest Fund’s ETF might distinguish itself from its US counterparts. There are indications that it could allow not only traditional fiat currency subscriptions but also direct Bitcoin subscriptions. This novel approach could provide investors in the region with a distinctive and flexible investment option.

Implications for Hong Kong’s Financial Landscape

The recent developments in Hong Kong are not surprising given the city’s crypto-ready stance. Hong Kong has been a frontrunner in embracing digital assets, evidenced by its eight-month-old rulebook about digital assets, aimed at protecting investors while encouraging innovation. This forward-thinking approach has positioned Hong Kong as an attractive destination for crypto-related ventures.

The introduction of a spot Bitcoin ETF is bound to have a profound impact on Hong Kong’s financial sector, providing investors with an accessible and regulated gateway to the world of cryptocurrencies. It aligns with the city’s goal to establish itself as a digital-asset hub, fostering innovation while ensuring investor protection.

Growing Acceptance of Crypto in Hong Kong

The submission by Harvest Fund signals a remarkable shift in the perception and acceptance of cryptocurrencies within mainstream financial markets. However, this acceptance is not limited to ETFs. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has been in discussions with companies like Harvest Global Investments, RD Technologies, and Venture Smart Financial Holdings regarding stablecoin trials within regulatory sandboxes. These developments underline Hong Kong’s commitment to fostering innovation and facilitating the integration of digital assets into its financial ecosystem.

Impact on Investment Opportunities

The potential approval of Harvest Fund’s ETF could open the floodgates for a diverse range of investors, especially those who are traditionally cautious due to the perceived complexity and risks associated with the crypto market. The potential approval aligns with a global trend where institutional investors are increasingly exploring cryptocurrency as an alternative investment, particularly in the wake of traditional market challenges.

Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain advisor, emphasizes the global context, pointing out that the Chinese stock market had a lackluster performance in 2023. The increasing interest in crypto alternatives is viewed as a positive development for the crypto industry. Harvest Fund, ranking as China’s sixth-largest public fund manager, filing for a Bitcoin ETF could pave the way for more Chinese capital to flow into the crypto market.

Global Impacts

Global Crypto Adoption

The developments of the crypto landscape in Hong Kong are likely to influence other nations in the integration of crypto into traditional financial systems. The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong could encourage regulatory bodies in other countries to review their own stance about cryptocurrencies and provide a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets. Hong Kong’s regulatory approach to the spot Bitcoin ETF approval may serve as a blueprint for other regions. Regulators in various jurisdictions are likely to closely observe how Hong Kong balances investor protection with fostering innovation. The approval could set a standard for regulatory frameworks, providing clarity and encouraging other countries to follow suit.

Global Investor Confidence

Furthermore, the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong is poised to attract investors, especially institutional ones, on a global scale. Hong Kong’s embrace of a spot Bitcoin ETF could instill a sense of confidence in investors worldwide. The move signifies a departure from the skepticism that has surrounded cryptocurrencies in some traditional financial circles. As confidence grows, more investors, both retail and institutional, may be inclined to allocate a portion of their portfolios to digital assets. That’s why investors, both in Asia and beyond, are closely monitoring Hong Kong’s stance on cryptocurrency investment.

Increased Market Capitalization of Cryptocurrencies

It’s also worth mentioning that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong could contribute significantly to the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies. As institutional investors gain easier access to Bitcoin through ETFs, a surge in demand is likely, driving up the price of the digital asset. This increased valuation directly contributes to the broader market capitalization of cryptocurrencies.

 

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are for informational purposes only. This article does not constitute an endorsement of any of the products and services discussed or investment, financial, or trading advice. Qualified professionals should be consulted prior to making financial decisions.

Source: https://www.bitget.com/en-GB/academy/harvest-fund-filed-the-first-spot-btc-etf-in-hong-kong

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Bullish investment strategies before spot ETH ETF approval

Bullish investment strategies before spot ETH ETF approval

There are several reasons to be optimistic about the approval of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the near future. First, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission has already shown a more favorable attitude toward cryptocurrencies in general, as evidenced by its approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. This was a historic milestone for the crypto industry, as it marked the first time the SEC allowed investors to access the largest cryptocurrency through a regulated and mainstream investment vehicle.

Second, Ether has a strong case for being classified as a commodity rather than a security by the SEC. This is a crucial distinction, as commodities are subject to less stringent regulations than securities and are, therefore, more likely to be approved for ETFs.

Ether is widely regarded as a commodity by many experts and authorities, including the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom, and Bloomberg’s ETF analysts. The Ethereum blockchain is also the backbone of the decentralized finance and nonfungible token sectors, which are booming with innovation and adoption, and demonstrate the utility and value of the network.

Third, there is a strong demand and interest for spot ETH ETFs from both retail and institutional investors. According to a recent survey by Bitwise Asset Management, 98% of financial advisers who currently have an allocation to crypto in clients’ accounts intend to maintain or increase their exposure in 2024, which also favors ETH.

Chris Kuiper, director of research at Fidelity, recently shared his insights on why Ether could be a more appealing investment option for institutional investors than Bitcoin. He highlighted that comprehending Bitcoin as an investment requires delving into intricate topics such as politics, philosophy, game theory and economics. In contrast, Ether provides a more straightforward perspective, emphasizing basic metrics and cash flow data. Kuiper believes presenting these metrics to institutional investors would make ETH appear more like a conventional financial instrument, making it easier for them to relate to the asset.

In addition, there are several applications for spot ETH ETFs pending with the SEC, such as the Fidelity Ethereum Fund, the WisdomTree Ethereum Trust and BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust. These are some of the world’s most reputable and influential asset managers, and their involvement could sway the SEC’s decision in favor of spot ETH ETFs.

Given the positive outlook for spot ETH ETFs, how should investors prepare for the potential approval? There is no definitive answer, as different investors have different risk appetites, time horizons and market outlooks. However, here are some possible strategies to consider, depending on whether one is bullish or bearish on Ether.

For investors who are bullish and optimistic about the approval of spot ETH ETFs, there are several ways to benefit from the anticipation and speculation of an approval, such as:

  • Buying spot ETH: The simplest, most direct way to gain exposure to the price appreciation of Ether is to buy and hold the spot ETH, either through a crypto exchange or a wallet. However, this also involves the highest risk and cost, as the investor has to deal with the volatility, security, and custody issues of holding and storing Ether directly.
  • Buying futures ETH ETFs: Another way to gain exposure to the price appreciation of Ether is to buy and hold futures-based ETH ETFs, such as the VanEck Ethereum Strategy ETF or the ProShares Ether Strategy ETF. These ETFs track the price of Ether by holding futures contracts that promise to deliver ETH at a future date and price. However, this also involves some risk and cost, as the investor has to deal with the contango, rollover, and tracking error issues of holding and trading futures contracts.
  • Buying call options on ETH or ETH ETFs: A more sophisticated, leveraged way to gain exposure to the price appreciation of Ether is to buy call options on ETH or ETH ETFs, such as CME ETH options. These options give the investor the right, but not the obligation, to buy ETH or ETH ETFs at a predetermined price and date. However, this also involves the most risk and cost, as the investor has to pay a premium for the options, and the options could expire worthless if the price of Ether or the ETH ETF does not exceed the strike price by the expiration date.
  • Arbitraging between different ETH products: A more complex, arbitrage-based way to gain exposure to the price appreciation of Ether is to exploit the price differences between different ETH products, such as spot ETH, futures-based ETH ETFs, spot ETH ETFs (if available in other jurisdictions), and ETH derivatives. However, this also involves the most skill and capital, as the investor has to identify and execute the arbitrage opportunities, and hedge against the market and operational risks.

Ethereum is one of the most innovative, influential platforms in the crypto space, and the approval of spot ETH ETFs could be a game-changer for the industry. However, an approval is not guaranteed, and the timing is uncertain. Therefore, investors should be prepared for various scenarios and adopt the appropriate strategies according to their risk appetite, time horizon and market outlook. To aid in their strategies, investors may consider using a powerful trading dashboard such as Cointelegraph Markets Pro.

Whether one is bullish or bearish on Ether, there are multiple ways to invest in the cryptocurrency before a potential spot ETH ETF approval, and potentially profit from the anticipation and speculation of such an approval. But remember, this is not financial advice.

 

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bullish-investment-strategies-before-spot-eth-etf-approval

FAQ

What factors make the approval of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) more likely in the near future?

According to Anndy Lian, the approval of spot Ether ETFs is increasingly probable due to the SEC's favorable stance on cryptocurrencies, demonstrated by the approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Additionally, Ether's potential classification as a commodity, rather than a security, aligns with less stringent regulations, making it more suitable for ETF approval. The strong demand from both retail and institutional investors further supports this optimistic outlook.

How can investors prepare for the potential approval of spot Ether ETFs?

In the article, Anndy Lian mentioned that investors with varying risk appetites, time horizons, and market outlooks have different strategies to consider. For those bullish on Ether, direct purchase of spot ETH, investment in futures-based ETH ETFs, buying call options, and arbitraging between different ETH products are potential approaches. Each strategy comes with its own set of risks and costs, necessitating careful consideration based on individual preferences and market expectations.

What makes Ethereum an appealing investment option for institutional investors, according to Chris Kuiper of Fidelity?

Chris Kuiper highlights Ethereum's appeal to institutional investors, emphasizing its straightforward perspective compared to Bitcoin. While understanding Bitcoin requires delving into intricate topics such as politics, philosophy, game theory, and economics, Ethereum provides a more conventional financial instrument view. Kuiper suggests that presenting Ethereum's basic metrics and cash flow data makes it more relatable to institutional investors, potentially positioning it as a more attractive investment option than Bitcoin.

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j