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Trump Vs. Harris: Crypto Experts Give Final U.S. Election Analysis

Trump Vs. Harris: Crypto Experts Give Final U.S. Election Analysis

In the build-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, Bitcoin (BTC) flirted with all-time highs regarding the possibility that pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump would take the helm at the White House.

While polls are set to close on November 5, it could take days or even weeks for a winner to be declared, depending on how close the contest is.

If you are wondering whether now is a good time to buy Bitcoin, we have compiled all the information you need to know about the 2024 U.S. presidential election race.

Key Takeaways

  • The crypto markets nervously await the 2024 U.S. election outcome between Trump and Harris.
  • Polymarket favors Trump as the pro-crypto candidate, contrasting with traditional poll projections.
  • A Harris win may present a Bitcoin buying opportunity, while Trump could boost crypto optimism.
  • Key crypto experts share insights with Techopedia on the potential shift in the regulatory environment post-election.

The Tight 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Race

According to a poll by the New York Times (NYT) and Siena College, the 2024 U.S. presidential election race is the closest it has been in decades.

While odds on the crypto prediction market Polymarket showed Trump as a clear favorite to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Trump at a 61% chance compared to Kamala Harris’ 39%, traditional pollsters and media houses expect a tighter contest.

Ahead of the November 5 voting deadline, NYT’s polls highlighted seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – that could decide the fate of the election.

As of November 5, Polymarket polls showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning in Pennsylvania. However, NYT and Siena College’s final set of polls said both Trump and Harris had a 48% chance each of winning in Pennsylvania.

In 2020, current U.S. president Joe Biden won the Pennsylvania state with a narrow 1.17% margin over Trump. The 2016 U.S. presidential election saw Trump win in Pennsylvania by a slender margin.

What Happens to Crypto Post-Election? Expert Analysis

Techopedia reached out to industry experts for exclusive insights on the impact of the U.S. presidential election on the crypto market.

Anndy Lian: Republican Majority in Congress is Key for Crypto Industry

Techopedia reached out to Anndy Lian, intergovernmental blockchain advisor and author of Blockchain Revolution 2030, for his thoughts on the U.S. presidential election race.

Firstly, Lian highlighted how crucial it was for the Trump-led Republican party to secure a majority in both houses of the U.S. Congress.

“For Republicans to effectively push through pro-crypto legislation, they really need to secure a majority in both houses. Without that majority, even a pro-crypto president might struggle to get meaningful bills passed.”

“So, while a Trump victory could spark optimism in the crypto space, the real key to unlocking potential growth lies in having a Republican majority in Congress.

“This combination could pave the way for policies that truly benefit the crypto market and help it thrive in the long run,” he added.

Next, we asked Lian what was in store for the crypto industry if Harris-led Democrats were to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“Harris has talked about supporting technological advancements, including digital assets, but there’s a concern that her policies might not stray far from the regulatory frameworks already in place.

“This could lead to an environment that focuses heavily on consumer protection and oversight, which might limit the more hands-off approach that many crypto advocates prefer.

“In the end, while a Democratic administration under Harris may not be as favorable for crypto as a Republican one, it doesn’t mean the industry is doomed.

The real question will be how her administration chooses to navigate the fast-changing world of cryptocurrencies.”

Finally, we asked Lian what he thought of the common notion that crypto regulations will change for the better no matter who wins the U.S. presidential elections.

“The idea that crypto regulations will improve regardless of who wins the presidency is an interesting one, but I think it oversimplifies a complex issue,” said Lian.

“The regulatory environment is influenced not just by the presidency but also by Congress, state governments, and international regulations.

“Even if there’s a general trend toward better regulations, the specifics will depend on the political climate and the priorities of those in power.”

10x Research: Harris Win Will Be Buying Opportunity

In a research note to Techopedia, 10x Research said the election outcome could hinge on “just one or two critical swing states”.

The Singapore-based crypto research firm noted that Bitcoin prices could slump 9% if Harris wins, while a Trump win could result in a 5% increase in Bitcoin prices.

10x Research added that a Harris win could present Bitcoin investors with a “buying opportunity.”

“The primary driver of this bull market, dating back to at least June 2023, has been the institutional adoption of Bitcoin, sparked by BlackRock’s application for a Bitcoin Spot ETF…

“Even if Harris were to ‘remain’ U.S. President, the impact on Bitcoin would likely be minimal,” said 10x Research.

However, 10x Research noted that this “buying opportunity” is not applicable to other cryptocurrencies, especially Solana (SOL), as a Harris win would lower the chances of a Solana ETF being approved.

“Crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana) could be up +5% if Trump wins, Bitcoin might be down -9% if Harris wins, and Solana -15%. Hence, a long Bitcoin vs. short Solana could be a reasonable election trade,” said 10x Research.

The Bottom Line

The run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election has been incredibly interesting to observe as a crypto enthusiast.

Be it the newfound political importance of the crypto industry or the divergence between traditional polls and crypto platform polls, one thing is for certain: we will remember 2024 as the year crypto came of age.

As we conclude this article, we would like to remind readers that cryptocurrencies are volatile assets. Always do your own research before investing. The information in this guide does not constitute investment advice and is meant for informational purposes only.

 

 

 

Source: https://www.techopedia.com/trump-vs-harris-crypto-experts-final-election-analysis

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
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Bitcoin Set to Rise Beyond $70,000 in ‘Coming Weeks,’ Experts Say

Bitcoin Set to Rise Beyond $70,000 in ‘Coming Weeks,’ Experts Say

Bitcoin’s price surge shows no signs of slowing down, with some predicting a breach of the $70,000 price tag in the coming weeks.

The world’s largest crypto is currently trading at over $67,600 after swelling to highs not seen since the beginning of August, CoinGecko data shows.

Yet is the current rally sustainable?

According to Jonathan de Wet, chief investment officer at Zerocap, Bitcoin’s upward momentum remains robust, he opined in an investor note on Wednesday.

 “We see [Bitcoin] at $70,000 in the coming weeks,” de Wet stated, pointing to a technical breakout providing a solid foundation for further gains.

Several tailwinds are beginning to converge, including political developments in the U.S., fueling optimism over favorable policy geared toward the crypto industry.

Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump has vowed to make the U.S. the world’s crypto capital, alongside protecting users’ right to custody their assets.

Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has promised to create rules of the road for crypto while attempting to foster innovation.

Trump’s plans to create a Bitcoin reserve could mark a turning point for crypto regulation, Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain expert, told Decrypt.

“This political backing could lead to a more favorable regulatory environment, boosting investor confidence and demand,” Lian said.

Lian believes Bitcoin will reach its all-time high next week, driven by global monetary policies, including extensive rate cuts by major central banks that could boost risk assets, including crypto.

Still, questions linger over China’s economic strife, de Wet said, which includes soaring local government debt, slow growth, and weak demand for goods and services.

The world’s second-largest economy has vowed to inject hundreds of billions of dollars through stimulus measures to kickstart its stock market and spur demand.

There’s also concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as the region remains a dominate player in energy production and trade suppy chains.

However, traders have nothing to fear from that end if BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes’ musings turn out to be right.

 

Source: https://decrypt.co/286814/bitcoin-rise-beyond-70000-coming-weeks-experts-say

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Coinbase Wrapped Bitcoin Has Potential to Dominate Market, Say Experts

Coinbase Wrapped Bitcoin Has Potential to Dominate Market, Say Experts

Coinbase has teased the upcoming launch of cbBTC, a new tokenized version of Bitcoin, on its Base network. Experts told Decrypt they think it could reshape the landscape of tokenized Bitcoin (BTC).

This new token, announced via a cryptic tweet in the early hours Wednesday, signals Coinbase’s ambitious plans to expand its tokenized asset offerings and potentially reshape the landscape of wrapped Bitcoin.

Coinbase has not yet responded to requests for more details from Decrypt.

The introduction of cbBTC comes as the demand for tokenized Bitcoin on Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-compatible chains continues to grow.

Nearly 156,608 BTC, valued at approximately $9.5 billion, has been tokenized and is being used across various decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems, according to CoinGecko.

Coinbase’s entry into this space with cbBTC could significantly impact the market dynamics, particularly given the exchange’s brand reputation and established institutional custody solutions.

This development follows Coinbase’s launch of cbETH, a wrapped and staked Ethereum token, in August 2022. The cbETH token now has a circulating supply of about 210,000, according to Coinbase, which means roughly two-thirds the total 600,000 supply that’s been created in the past two years has been burned.

Base creator Jesse Pollak expressed enthusiasm about the potential of Bitcoin on Coinbase’s layer-2 network.

In a tweet following the cbBTC announcement, Pollak stated, “to say it out loud: I love bitcoin, am so grateful for it’s role kickstarting crypto, and we’re going to build a massive bitcoin economy on @base.”

Industry experts said the introduction of cbBTC is likely to have far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency market, particularly in the realm of DeFi.

Alvin Kan, chief operating officer of Bitget Wallet, told Decrypt that cbBTC is poised to gain rapid market acceptance upon launch, citing Coinbase’s strong reputation and custody services.

“As a globally recognized exchange, Coinbase’s goal is to create a more open, decentralised, and highly liquid tokenized version of BTC,” Kan said.

However, not all experts are convinced that cbBTC will immediately dominate the market.

Jenny Zheng, chair of non-profit organization Lady of Redecentralise, pointed out the established trust network and deep integration of existing wrapped Bitcoin options like WBTC in the DeFi ecosystem. WBTC is currently the 13th largest asset by market capitalization on Coingecko and boasts a $10.7 billion market capitalization.

Offering a broader perspective on Coinbase’s strategy, Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain expert, said a new tokenized version of BTC will be well-received, given Coinbase’s reputation and the trust built within the crypto community.

“This is an opportunity to offer a more transparent and reliable alternative to WBTC,” he said, “which could attract users who are wary of Justin Sun’s involvement.”

BitGo, the company behind Wrapped Bitcoin, announced on Friday that it has partnered with BiT Global—a company with links to Tron founder Sun—to launch a new venture that will manage WBTC. The new partnership will leave BitGo as a minority stakeholder, the company said. The pushback on Sun being associated with WBTC has been strong enough to prompt the Tron founder to offer a disclaimer on Twitter.

“My personal involvement in WBTC is entirely strategic,” he wrote, “I do not control the private keys to the WBTC reserves and cannot move any BTC reserves.”

 

 

Source: https://decrypt.co/244619/coinbase-wrapped-bitcoin-market-experts

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j