Tag Archives: fears

Stagflation fears mount as brent crude hits US$107 and crypto market tests yearly lows

Stagflation fears mount as brent crude hits US$107 and crypto market tests yearly lows

The total crypto market capitalisation dropped 3.19 per cent to US$2.36T within a single 24-hour period. This decline reflects something deeper than typical volatility. We are witnessing a fundamental reassessment of how digital assets behave within the broader financial ecosystem. The data tells a compelling story that every serious investor needs to understand before making their next move.

The correlation coefficient with the S&P 500 reached 82 per cent over the last day, while the relationship with Gold hit an extraordinary 92 per cent. These numbers shatter the narrative that cryptocurrency operates as an independent asset class. Instead, we see digital assets trading as macro-sensitive instruments, fully exposed to interest-rate expectations and geopolitical risk. The Federal Reserve holds the keys to near-term direction, and its recent communications have done little to calm nervous investors.

Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Michael Barr, issued stark warnings about the inflation fight facing new threats from instability in the Middle East. The prospect of an oil shock stemming from tensions in Iran could force policymakers to delay anticipated rate cuts throughout 2026. This rhetoric sparked a broad selloff across risk assets, with crypto bearing the brunt of the outflow. Market participants had priced in a more accommodative stance from the central bank, but the reality of persistent energy inflation has forced a painful recalibration. The May 6- 7 FOMC meeting now looms as the next critical event where we might gain clarity on the actual rate path forward.

The Ethereum ecosystem experienced particular pain during this downturn, falling 16.77 per cent as large holders chose to distribute their positions. One early supporter unstaked 7,302 ETH after 4 years of locking their tokens, converting approximately US$15.14M worth into liquid assets. This type of concentrated selling from long-term holders creates outsized moves when combined with sector-wide risk aversion. The market absorbed this supply poorly, suggesting that bid depth remains thin across major trading venues. I view this as a warning sign that we should closely monitor ETH exchange reserves and staking outflow trends. A continued rise in these metrics could signal further distribution from other long-term holders who see better opportunities elsewhere.

Altcoin performance painted an even grimmer picture, with high-beta tokens underperforming as capital rotated into safety. Several AI tokens dropped over 14 per cent on heavy volume. This pattern indicates that investors are not merely taking profits but actively reducing exposure to speculative positions. The risk-off sentiment extends beyond crypto into global equity markets, where the Nasdaq Composite confirmed a correction by dropping more than 10 per cent from its recent all-time high. The S&P 500 fell 1.74 per cent to 6,477.16, closing below its 200-day moving average for the first time in nearly a year. The Dow Jones slid 469.38 points to settle at 45,960.11. These moves confirm that we face a synchronised global downturn rather than an isolated crypto event.

Energy markets remain the primary driver of this macro uncertainty. Brent crude trades around US$107 per barrel, up over 70 per cent year-to-date as markets price in the risk of oil reaching US$200 if the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz escalates. S&P Global lowered its 2026 growth forecasts while raising its inflation outlook due to prolonged energy disruptions. This stagflation scenario represents the worst possible environment for risk assets, combining weak economic growth with persistent price pressures. Hopes for a Fed rate cut in 2026 have largely evaporated as the energy shock heightens inflation risks. The US Dollar rose 0.4 per cent as traders sought safety amid the Middle East crisis, while Gold fell 3.4 per cent as investors adjusted to a new rate reality where inflation concerns outweigh fear-driven buying. Gold prices have retraced about 20 per cent from January peaks, showing that even traditional safe havens struggle when rate expectations shift dramatically.

Bitcoin liquidations surged 103 per cent to US$97.43M over 24 hours, indicating that leveraged long positions are being liquidated. This deleveraging event amplifies downward pressure, creating a feedback loop through forced selling. The total market cap now tests the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at US$2.41T, with major support at the yearly low of US$2.17T. A hold above US$2.27T, which represents the recent swing low, could set up a consolidation phase where the market digests these macro shocks. A break below that level may trigger a deeper correction toward the yearly lows. Bitcoin must defend the US$64K to US$65K zone to prevent further technical damage. I watch the US spot Bitcoin ETF flow data closely for signs of institutional demand returning, as these products now represent a critical source of marginal buying pressure.

The near-term market outlook hinges on two factors that remain outside crypto’s control. First, geopolitical tensions must cool to reduce the oil shock premium currently embedded in inflation expectations. Second, Federal Reserve rhetoric needs to soften to restore confidence in the timeline for rate cuts. Without improvement on these fronts, we face continued pressure across all risk assets. The question every investor must answer involves whether Bitcoin support at US$64K will hold as the macro storm passes, or if a retest of lower levels becomes inevitable. 

This downturn represents a macro-driven deleveraging event amplified by large Ethereum selling and altcoin weakness. The path forward likely depends on whether geopolitical tensions cool and the Fed rhetoric softens. I have seen multiple cycles where the market found bottoms only after macro uncertainty resolved. The current environment demands patience and disciplined risk management rather than attempts to catch falling knives. Investors should prepare for continued volatility while monitoring the key levels and catalysts outlined above. 

 

Source: https://e27.co/stagflation-fears-mount-as-brent-crude-hits-us107-and-crypto-market-tests-yearly-lows-20260327/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Markets in freefall: AI fears trigger US$4B Bitcoin ETF exodus

Markets in freefall: AI fears trigger US$4B Bitcoin ETF exodus

From Wall Street to Asian bourses, from oil futures to digital currencies, the message is clear: risk appetite has evaporated, and a defensive crouch has become the default stance. This is not merely a localised correction or sector-specific adjustment. This is a full-scale recalibration of market sentiment, driven by artificial intelligence anxieties, robust economic data that complicates the rate-cut narrative, and a commodity complex under siege from supply gluts.

In my view, what we are witnessing represents a significant stress test for the interconnected global financial system, and the results so far paint a sobering picture.

The epicentre of this week’s turmoil lies squarely on Wall Street, where fresh concerns about the long-term implications of artificial intelligence on commercial real estate and software sectors triggered a violent selloff on Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 2.03 per cent, erasing weeks of gains in a single trading session. The S&P 500 fared only marginally better, dropping 1.57 per cent as investors scrambled to reduce exposure to growth-oriented names.

These are not trivial declines. They reflect a fundamental reassessment of valuations in sectors that have carried the market to record highs over the past year. The AI revolution, once celebrated as a catalyst for unprecedented productivity gains, has now become a source of anxiety as market participants question whether the technology will disrupt more businesses than it creates.

This flight from risk assets has produced a predictable but nonetheless significant rotation into safe havens. United States Treasuries rallied sharply, pushing the 10-year yield down to approximately 4.09 per cent, its lowest level since early December. This move tells us something important about investor psychology right now.

When capital flows aggressively into government bonds amid strong economic data, it signals that fear has overtaken greed as the dominant market emotion. The traditional playbook would suggest that robust employment figures and resilient consumer spending should push yields higher. Instead, the opposite has occurred, revealing the depth of concern about potential dislocations in equity markets.

The commodity complex has not escaped the carnage. Oil prices fell more than 2 per cent after a devastating report from the International Energy Agency projected a record global crude surplus of 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026. This figure represents a supply glut of historic proportions, one that threatens to keep energy prices depressed for the foreseeable future.

For oil-producing nations and energy companies, this outlook presents serious challenges to fiscal planning and capital expenditure decisions. For consumers and central bankers, lower energy costs could provide some relief on the inflation front, though the broader economic implications of a weakening commodity complex remain concerning.

Gold, traditionally the ultimate safe haven during periods of market stress, has also stumbled. The precious metal tumbled below the US$5,000 per ounce mark as strong jobs data dampened hopes for immediate interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. This development highlights a fascinating tension in current market dynamics.

Investors want protection from equity volatility, but they also recognise that a strong labour market gives the Fed little incentive to ease monetary policy. Higher-for-longer interest rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, creating downward pressure even during periods of elevated uncertainty.

Perhaps the most instructive lesson from this week’s market action comes from the cryptocurrency sector, which has declined 1.55 per cent over the past 24 hours, bringing its total market capitalisation to US$2.28 trillion. What makes this move particularly significant is not its magnitude but its correlation structure.

The crypto market now exhibits a 93 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 and an 89 per cent correlation with gold over the same period. These figures demolish any remaining arguments that digital assets function as uncorrelated portfolio diversifiers during stress events. When correlations approach unity across asset classes, it tells us that macro forces, specifically interest rate expectations and dollar dynamics, are driving all boats in the same direction.

The institutional dimension of the crypto selloff deserves careful attention. Bitcoin exchange-traded fund assets under management fell to US$97.31 billion the previous day, indicating sustained selling pressure from professional investors. This was compounded by US$80.21 million representing long positions that were forcibly closed.

The combination of spot selling and leveraged position unwinding created a negative feedback loop that amplified the downward move. In my assessment, this dynamic represents one of the most vulnerable aspects of the current crypto market structure, where institutional flows and derivative markets can interact in ways that accelerate price moves beyond what fundamentals would justify.

Looking ahead, the technical picture for Bitcoin centres on the US$66,000 support zone. A decisive break below this level could open the door to a swift decline toward US$50,000, a scenario that Standard Chartered has publicly identified as possible.

The key near-term catalyst will be the FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for release on February 19, which could provide crucial guidance on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. Until then, markets will likely remain in a holding pattern, with participants reluctant to commit capital until they have greater clarity on the direction of monetary policy.

My view on the current situation is that we are experiencing a necessary and ultimately healthy correction in asset prices that had become stretched by optimism about technological transformation and monetary easing. The AI narrative, while powerful, had pushed valuations in certain sectors to levels that assumed perfection in execution and adoption.

Reality rarely cooperates with such assumptions. Similarly, the expectation that central banks would rush to cut rates despite solid economic data always seemed premature. Markets are now adjusting to a more realistic assessment of both opportunities and risks.

The path forward will depend heavily on whether institutional investors interpret current price levels as buying opportunities or as warnings to further reduce exposure. Daily ETF flow data will provide the most immediate signal of sentiment. A return to consistent net inflows would suggest that professional capital views the selloff as a dip worth buying. Continued outflows would indicate that de-risking has further to run.

For now, the burden of proof rests with the bulls, who must demonstrate that support levels will hold up against persistent macroeconomic headwinds and technical pressure. The markets have spoken clearly this week, and their message is one of caution, recalibration, and respect for the powerful forces that shape global capital flows.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-in-freefall-ai-fears-trigger-us4b-bitcoin-etf-exodus-20260213/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin crashes below US$93K as trade war fears wipe out US$357M in leverage

Bitcoin crashes below US$93K as trade war fears wipe out US$357M in leverage

Global markets shifted sharply into risk-off mode as President Trump announced proposed 10 per cent tariffs on eight European countries that opposed US plans regarding Greenland. The move reignited trade-war anxieties, triggering a broad retreat from risk assets and sending haven assets to new highs.

US equity index futures reflected the unease, with the S&P 500 down 0.9 per cent and the Nasdaq 100 falling 1.1 per cent. European stock futures dropped 1.2 per cent, while most Asian markets followed suit except China, where equities rose 0.3 per cent after official data confirmed the economy grew by five per cent in 2025, meeting its annual target despite a fourth-quarter slowdown.

The flight to safety propelled gold to a record US$4,635.88 per ounce, up 0.9 per cent, while silver also surged. In contrast, oil prices declined as geopolitical tensions around Iran eased. Currency markets mirrored the shift in sentiment, with the US dollar weakening broadly. The euro climbed 0.3 per cent to US$1.1627, and the Japanese yen strengthened to 157.66 per dollar. Cryptocurrencies did not escape the selloff. Bitcoin plunged 3.2 per cent to US$92,310.23, and the broader crypto market shed 2.9 per cent over the past 24 hours.

Three interlocking forces drove this downturn.

First, renewed US–EU trade tensions created immediate policy uncertainty. With US cash markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, futures bore the brunt of investor anxiety, and crypto, which often correlates with tech-heavy equities, got caught in the downdraft. The threat of retaliatory tariffs by February 1, coupled with a 54.5 per cent probability of a formal US move on Greenland according to prediction markets, kept volatility elevated.

Second, excessive leverage in crypto markets turned a modest dip into a cascade. As Bitcoin broke below US$92,000, over US$357 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated within an hour, contributing to total crypto liquidations of US$865 million. Open interest stood at US$645 billion, up nearly 20 per cent recently, signalling crowded bullish positioning. Negative funding rates of –0.000255 per cent further revealed that longs were paying shorts to stay in the market, a classic sign of overheated optimism vulnerable to reversal.

Third, technical breakdowns accelerated the decline. Bitcoin’s failure to hold the US$95,000 support level triggered algorithmic sell orders and panic among retail traders. The global crypto market cap fell below its 30-day exponential moving average of US$3.12 trillion, and the RSI dipped to 41.8, indicating waning momentum. Altcoins suffered disproportionately, with Solana down 10.63 per cent and Filecoin sliding 10.86 per cent. Among the top 50 assets, Aster posted one of the steepest losses, dropping more than 15 per cent.

Despite these headwinds, underlying fundamentals in parts of the crypto ecosystem remain robust. Ethereum continues to see record staking demand, suggesting strong conviction in its long-term utility. Macro fears have temporarily overridden such positives.

For now, the path forward hinges on two variables: whether the US and EU can de-escalate tariff rhetoric before the February 1 deadline, and whether Bitcoin can reclaim the US$93,000 level to signal short-term stabilisation. If trade tensions ease, altcoins may find relief, but until then, the market will likely remain hostage to geopolitical headlines and the fragility of overleveraged positions.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-crashes-below-us93k-as-trade-war-fears-wipe-out-us357m-in-leverage-20260119/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j