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US economic fears and Bitcoin: Saylor’s US$16T reserve plan

US economic fears and Bitcoin: Saylor’s US$16T reserve plan

As I reflect on the complex interplay of global financial dynamics, US economic indicators, and the bold proposal for a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve championed by Michael Saylor, I find myself intrigued and cautious about the implications for investors, markets, and the broader economy.

The recent pullback in global risk sentiment, driven by concerns over the US economy’s health, paints a picture of uncertainty that resonates deeply with the volatile movements in Bitcoin and other asset classes. Treasury yields have been falling across all maturities since mid-January as investors flock to the safety of fixed-income assets, signalling a shift toward risk aversion, with havens like the yen and Swiss franc gaining ground.

At the same time, the US dollar experiences its longest losing streak. This backdrop of faltering confidence in US economic outperformance and mixed signals from employment data—non-farm payrolls rising by 151,000 in February but the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1 per cent—creates a fragile foundation for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The data from China further complicates the global economic outlook. Consumer inflation falling below zero for the first time in 13 months, amid persistent deflationary pressures, underscores weakening demand and raises concerns about the health of the world’s second-largest economy. This, in turn, has a ripple effect on commodities like Brent crude, which hovers around US$70 per barrel despite a modest 1.3 per cent uptick, as weak Chinese economic data dampens oil demand expectations.

Meanwhile, US equity markets show resilience, with the MSCI US index edging up 0.5 per cent and Utilities outperforming at 1.9 per cent. Still, the slight rise in US Treasury yields—10-year at 4.30 per cent and 2-year at 4.00 per cent—and a continued decline in the U.S. Dollar Index by 0.2 per cent suggest lingering growth worries.

Gold, maintaining upward momentum toward US$3,000 per ounce despite a minor 0.1 per cent dip, reflects its role as a safe-haven asset amid this uncertainty. The mixed performance of Asian equities and the implied 0.4 per cent lower opening for US stock index futures further highlight the cautious mood permeating global markets.

Against this backdrop, Michael Saylor’s proposal for the US government to acquire 25 per cent of Bitcoin’s total supply—approximately 5.3 million BTC—by 2035 to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve feels both visionary and audacious. Presented at the White House Crypto Summit, where President Donald Trump endorsed a “never sell your Bitcoin” policy and issued an executive order prohibiting the sale of Bitcoin held in reserve, Saylor’s plan suggests a systematic acquisition of 5-25 per cent of Bitcoin’s daily supply between 2025 and 2035.

By that time, with 99 per cent of Bitcoin’s 21 million total supply already issued, the US would hold a significant portion of the cryptocurrency, potentially generating US$16 trillion to US$81 trillion by 2045, according to Saylor’s projections. He argues this could help reduce the national debt, which, as noted in recent World Bank reports, has ballooned globally due to crisis responses like those during the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns about sustainability, especially in emerging economies.

From my perspective, Saylor’s proposal is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it could catalyse broader institutional adoption of Bitcoin, as governments and corporations might follow the US lead, legitimising cryptocurrencies in mainstream finance. The executive order’s prohibition on selling Bitcoin could stabilise its long-term value by reducing supply pressure, potentially driving prices higher as demand grows.

This aligns with Saylor’s vision of Bitcoin as a “property in cyberspace,” akin to strategic reserves of gold, oil, or grain, as historical examples cited by Saylor—like the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve established in 1975—demonstrate.

The idea of the US asserting geopolitical influence through digital asset holdings, as suggested in reports from CoinDesk and Reuters, could position the country as a leader in setting global crypto standards, fostering innovation, and countering the dominance of other nations or entities in the digital economy.

However, the practicality and risks of this plan are significant. Bitcoin’s price volatility, evidenced by its recent 5 per cent drop to around US$80,000 following Trump’s executive order, underscores the challenges of integrating it into a national strategic reserve. As noted in the Bitcoin price decline, the disappointment among investors suggests skepticism about the reserve’s immediate impact, especially amid broader market uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s history of sharp corrections—like the 30 per cent drop from January 2025 levels, as mentioned in X posts from analysts like @JacobKinge—highlights its immaturity as a stable store of value compared to traditional assets. The crypto market’s “Extreme Fear” sentiment, reflected in the Fear & Greed Index dropping to levels seen during the 2020 COVID-19 crash and the 2022 market bottom, as reported by @inmortalcrypto and @APompliano, indicates that investor confidence is fragile, potentially exacerbated by large government purchases that could distort market dynamics.

Moreover, the logistics of acquiring such a substantial portion of Bitcoin’s supply—up to 25 per cent—over a decade are daunting. With a current market cap of over US$1.6 trillion (based on a US$80,000 price per BTC), purchasing 5.3 million BTC could cost upwards of US$424 billion, though Saylor’s gradual approach might mitigate price inflation.

However, as noted in Reuters’ coverage, large-scale government purchases could outsize Bitcoin’s price, especially given its relatively low trading volume compared to traditional markets. The inclusion of other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, as Trump hinted, adds further complexity, as smaller tokens like Cardano and XRP have even lower liquidity, potentially amplifying volatility. Cybersecurity risks, as mentioned in web analyses, also loom large, given Bitcoin wallets’ vulnerability to hacks, raising questions about the feasibility of securing such a reserve.

The broader economic context complicates matters further. The US government’s fiscal position, with rising national debt concerns outlined in the World Development Report 2022 and U.S. News articles on potential 2025 stock market risks, suggests that allocating billions to Bitcoin could be contentious.

Critics might argue that funds could be better directed toward infrastructure and social programs or to stabilise traditional markets amid faltering growth and persistent inflation, which remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 per cent, at 3 per cent, according to US News. The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates significantly, as noted in US Bank’s analysis of the yield curve, and the potential for recession signals—like an inverted yield curve, though currently fading—could heighten opposition to such a speculative investment.

On the positive side, Saylor’s comparison to historical US strategic purchases—like the Louisiana Purchase or Alaska acquisition, which yielded massive long-term returns—offers a compelling narrative. If Bitcoin follows a trajectory similar to its 2017 cycle, as suggested by @rovercrc on X, it could see exponential growth, justifying the reserve’s creation.

The Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance, reinforced by the White House Crypto Summit and Saylor’s participation, could also attract institutional investors, boosting market confidence and regulatory clarity, as seen in the proposed Lummis bill for a Bitcoin reserve. This could align with broader trends of digital asset integration, as evidenced by El Salvador’s past Bitcoin adoption. However, its recent project cessation highlights the risks of over-reliance on crypto.

Ultimately, I see Saylor’s proposal as a high-stakes gamble with transformative potential but significant risks. The current market environment—marked by US economic uncertainty, global deflationary pressures, and Bitcoin’s volatility—suggests caution is warranted.

While the idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could position the US as a crypto leader and generate enormous returns, it could also strain public finances, destabilise markets, and expose the government to unprecedented risks. I’d advocate for thorough public debate, rigorous economic modelling, and pilot programs to test the feasibility before committing to such an ambitious plan. The recent Bitcoin price drop to US$80,000, coupled with investor disappointment, serves as a stark reminder that crypto’s promise is tempered by its unpredictability, making Saylor’s vision both inspiring and, at this moment, daunting.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/us-economic-fears-and-bitcoin-saylors-us16t-reserve-plan-20250310/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Shifting sands: How trade fears and crypto hopes are redefining markets

Shifting sands: How trade fears and crypto hopes are redefining markets

As I sit down to unpack the whirlwind of events shaping global markets on March 5, 2025, it’s hard not to feel the weight of uncertainty pressing down on us all. The headlines are buzzing with escalating trade tensions, bold economic proposals, and a crypto landscape that’s both thrilling and divisive. Let’s dive into this market wrap and explore what’s driving these shifts, what the data tells us, and where I think this rollercoaster might take us next.

The big story dominating the financial world right now is the trade standoff sparked by US President Trump’s decision to slap 25 per cent tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, alongside an additional 10 per cent on China. True to his campaign rhetoric, Trump has followed through, and the fallout has been swift.

Canada and China didn’t waste a moment, hitting back with their own retaliatory tariffs, while Mexico’s president has promised to join the fray by Sunday. The result? Global equities took a beating, with the MSCI US index dropping 1.2 per cent, dragged down by a bruising 3.5 per cent plunge in financials. It’s a grim picture, and you can almost feel the collective sigh from Wall Street as fears of a full-blown trade war loom large.

But here’s where it gets interesting. After the US markets closed, Commerce Secretary Lutnick dropped a hint that talks with Canada and Mexico might yield a compromise. That’s a lifeline for markets desperate for some stability, though I’m skeptical about how quickly this can be resolved.

Tariffs aren’t just numbers—they’re bargaining chips in a high-stakes game, and unwinding them could take time. Still, the mere suggestion of a deal nudged US equity futures upward, hinting at a brighter open today. My take? This feels like a temporary breather rather than a resolution. Trade wars don’t end with a single press conference—they fester, and I’d wager we’re in for more volatility before clarity emerges.

Over in the bond market, the reaction was equally telling. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed over 3 basis points to 4.21 per cent, reversing an earlier dip, while the 2-year yield slipped 3 basis points to 3.94 per cent. This widening gap—known as a steepening yield curve—screams uncertainty to me.

Investors seem to be betting on inflation from tariffs pushing up long-term yields, while the drop in short-term yields suggests some are seeking safety or anticipating a slowdown. It’s a classic push-and-pull, and I can’t help but think it reflects a market grappling with mixed signals.

Shifting gears to Europe, Germany’s conservatives and Social Democrats have unveiled a jaw-dropping plan: a 500 billion euro fund for infrastructure and a rewrite of borrowing rules to ramp up defense spending. It’s a bold move, and the markets loved it—the EUR/USD shot up to 1.0627 overnight. Other European currencies like the Swiss franc, British pound, Norwegian krone, and Swedish krona followed suit, flexing their muscles as the US Dollar Index stumbled 0.9 per cent to 105.49.

This feels like Europe seizing a moment to assert itself amid global chaos, and I’m impressed by the ambition. If Germany pulls this off, it could spark a ripple effect, boosting infrastructure and jobs while shoring up defenses—a win-win that might just give the eurozone an edge.

Meanwhile, commodities are painting a different picture. Brent crude slipped 0.8 per cent to below US$70 a barrel, the lowest since last October, thanks to OPEC+ signalling output hikes in April. That’s a supply glut waiting to happen, and with trade tensions clouding demand, I’m not surprised oil’s taking a hit.

Gold, on the other hand, rose 0.7 per cent, buoyed by a weaker dollar and its timeless appeal as a safe haven. It’s a tale of two commodities—one sinking under practical pressures, the other shining as a hedge against the unknown. I’d argue gold’s climb is a sign that, despite some optimism, fear still lingers in the market’s underbelly.

Across the Pacific, China’s National People’s Congress kicked off with a gutsy 5 per cent growth target for 2025, tariffs be damned. Investors are laser-focused on spending plans, especially around AI, which could be a game-changer for China’s tech sector.

Asian equity indices mostly rose in early trading, and with Trump set to address Congress today, all eyes are on what he’ll say about trade and beyond. My gut tells me China’s playing a long game here—pushing growth while quietly adapting to external pressures. That 5 per cent target might be ambitious, but if they lean into AI and innovation, it’s not out of reach.

Now, let’s talk crypto, because this is where things get wild. Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has ordered a legal framework for digital assets, with a draft due this month. It’s a big deal—right now, cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum exist in a legal no-man’s-land there, forcing businesses to register in places like Singapore or the US.

A clear rulebook could unleash a wave of activity, and I’m excited to see Vietnam stepping up. Indonesia’s crypto scene is already on fire, with transactions soaring to 44.07 trillion rupiah (US$2.68 billion) in January 2025—a 104.31 per cent jump from last year. With 1,396 assets tradable as of February, it’s clear Southeast Asia is becoming a crypto hotspot.

Hong Kong’s not sitting idle either. On February 19, its Securities and Future Commission rolled out the ASPIRe Framework—five pillars and 12 initiatives to grow and secure its virtual asset industry. It’s a smart play to cement Hong Kong’s status as a financial innovation hub, and I’d bet it’ll draw in more players. But the real crypto drama is brewing in Washington.

Trump’s pushing for a strategic cryptocurrency reserve, originally pitched as a way to use seized assets like the US’s US$16.4 billion in Bitcoin and US$400 million in other tokens. The twist? He now wants XRP, SOL, and ADA included—tokens the US doesn’t even hold yet.

That’s sparked a firestorm, with critics crying foul over government meddling in markets and supporters cheering a bold embrace of crypto. Personally, I’m torn. It’s a visionary idea, but buying those tokens could spike prices and invite accusations of favoritism. The logistics alone are a nightmare—how do you stockpile volatile assets without distorting the market?

Stepping back, what strikes me most is the sheer breadth of these developments. Trade tensions are shaking equities and bonds, Europe’s flexing fiscal muscle, and Asia’s charging ahead with crypto and growth targets. The data backs this up: the MSCI US down 1.2 per cent, EUR/USD at 1.0627, Indonesia’s crypto boom, Brent at US$70—all pieces of a puzzle showing a world in transition.

My view? We’re at a tipping point. Trade wars could drag us down, but compromises and innovation—like Germany’s fund or Asia’s crypto push—offer hope. The US crypto reserve is a wild card; if executed poorly, it could backfire, but done right, it might signal a new era for digital assets.

I think markets will stay jittery until trade talks clarify—watch Canada and Mexico closely. Europe’s plans could stabilise things if they deliver, and Asia’s crypto momentum might just steal the spotlight. Trump’s speech today could set the tone, but I wouldn’t hold my breath for miracles. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and as a journalist digging into the facts, I’d say buckle up—we’re in for a ride that’s as unpredictable as it is fascinating.

 

Source: https://e27.co/shifting-sands-how-trade-fears-and-crypto-hopes-are-redefining-markets-20250305/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Market recap: Europe gains, crypto falls, and trade fears grow

Market recap: Europe gains, crypto falls, and trade fears grow

The market wrap for February 27, 2025, paints a vivid picture of a world grappling with choppy risk sentiment, spurred by US President Donald Trump’s latest pronouncements on trade policy. His remarks during Wednesday’s cabinet meeting—laden with ambiguity about tariffs on Canada and Mexico, hints of a delay from March to April, and a firm declaration of 25 per cent reciprocal tariffs on European autos—have sent ripples of unease across global markets.

Add to that a slew of economic data points, corporate earnings, and geopolitical developments, and you’ve got a recipe for volatility that’s keeping investors on their toes. Here’s my take on what’s unfolding, grounded in facts and a healthy dose of skepticism about where this all might lead.

Let’s start with Trump’s trade rhetoric, which has once again thrust uncertainty into the spotlight. His contradictory signals about tariffs on Canada and Mexico—major US trading partners—suggest a strategy that’s either deliberately fluid or frustratingly inconsistent.

On one hand, he’s floated a potential delay, pushing the timeline from March to April, which could buy time for negotiations or simply prolong the suspense. On the other, he’s doubled down with a pledge for 25 per cent tariffs on European autos and other goods, a move that’s less about surprise (given his long-standing “tariff man” persona) and more about escalation.

The markets despise ambiguity, and Trump’s words have delivered it in spades. Investors are left parsing his intentions: Is this a negotiating tactic to extract concessions, or a genuine prelude to a broader trade war? The historical precedent from his first term—where tariffs on steel and aluminum roiled markets but often softened in practice—offers little comfort when the stakes now seem higher and the global economy more fragile.

The economic data isn’t helping soothe nerves either. US new home sales took a nosedive in January, dropping 10.5 per cent to 657,000 units. That’s a stark signal of cooling demand in a housing market already battered by high interest rates and affordability woes. For context, this figure undershoots even the most pessimistic forecasts, hinting at deeper structural issues—perhaps a pullback in consumer confidence or a ripple effect from trade-related uncertainty.

Housing is a bellwether for broader economic health, and this bearish turn could amplify growth concerns, especially as Trump’s policies threaten to layer on inflationary pressures via tariffs. It’s no wonder equity markets have been volatile, with traders caught between macroeconomic red flags and the micro-level drama of corporate earnings.

Speaking of earnings, Nvidia’s latest report was the week’s marquee event, and it didn’t disappoint—or rather, it didn’t fully satisfy. The chip giant, a darling of the tech rally, posted results that beat analyst expectations, yet the stock wobbled in after-hours trading. Why? After two years of blowout performances that fuelled AI-driven euphoria, this “modest beat” felt like a letdown.

Investors have grown accustomed to Nvidia shattering ceilings, and anything less sparks doubts about whether the growth story has peaked. The broader MSCI US index eked out a negligible 0.03 per cent gain, buoyed by a 0.8 per cent rise in the Info Tech sector, but the lack of decisive momentum reflects a market wrestling with bigger questions. Are we seeing the limits of tech-led optimism in an environment where tariffs and inflation could crimp corporate margins?

Meanwhile, fixed-income markets offered their own commentary. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slipped 4 basis points to 4.25 per cent, a subtle nod to growth fears trumping inflation worries—for now. Lower yields signal a flight to safety, as investors bet on a slowing economy potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to rethink its rate-cut trajectory.

The US Dollar Index, up 0.1 per cent to 106.49, suggests some resilience, likely propped up by Trump’s tariff threats enhancing the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. Gold, too, ticked up 0.1 per cent to US$2,915.92 an ounce, hovering near record territory as a hedge against uncertainty. These moves aren’t dramatic, but they underscore a cautious repositioning amid the noise.

Across the Atlantic, MSCI Europe climbed a solid 1.0 per cent, lifted by a new minerals deal between the US and Ukraine. It’s a rare bright spot, hinting at strategic shifts in resource alliances that could cushion Europe against trade disruptions. But let’s not kid ourselves—European autos, now squarely in Trump’s tariff crosshairs, could drag sentiment down fast. Companies like Volkswagen and Stellantis, with heavy exposure to North American supply chains, face a reckoning if those 25 per cent duties stick. The sector’s already nursing wounds from a post-pandemic slump, and this could be salt in the wound.

Asia, meanwhile, tells a tale of resilience and divergence. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rebounded 1.5 per cent, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng stealing the show at a 3.3 per cent surge. The catalyst? News that China plans to recapitalise its biggest banks, a move that could stabilise a financial system creaking under bad debt and sluggish growth.

It’s a bold step, and the market’s enthusiastic response suggests hope that Beijing’s got more tricks up its sleeve. Yet, early trading today showed Asian indices mixed, and US equity futures point to a softer open stateside. The global mood remains jittery, and China’s bank rescue might be a temporary salve rather than a cure.

Then there’s the cryptocurrency saga, a wild subplot in this market drama. Over US$800 billion has evaporated from global crypto markets in recent weeks, a brutal reversal from the post-election euphoria tied to Trump’s perceived pro-crypto stance. Bitcoin shed 3.6 per cent on Wednesday, hitting US$85,600, while Ethereum took a 4 per cent dive to US$2,275—its lowest since September.

The culprits are manifold: inflation fears, tariff anxieties, a cooling meme coin craze, and a US$1.4 billion hack at the Bybit exchange, linked to the notorious Lazarus group. The forensic fallout confirms it was a targeted attack, not a flaw in Safe Wallet’s smart contracts, but the damage to confidence is real. Crypto’s 4 per cent daily drop mirrors the broader sell-off in risk assets, and Ethereum’s 53 per cent lag from its 2021 peak is a stark reminder of how far the mighty can fall when sentiment sours.

Oil, too, is feeling the heat. Brent crude slipped 0.7 per cent to US$72.71 a barrel, pressured by an unexpected buildup in US fuel inventories and whispers of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. The latter could ease supply concerns, but the former points to weakening demand—a troubling sign when paired with the housing data. Energy markets are a microcosm of the push-pull between geopolitical hope and economic reality, and right now, reality’s winning.

So, what’s my point of view on all this? I have mentioned this many times in the past few days. I see a world at a crossroads, where Trump’s trade gambit could either spark a manageable reshuffling of global commerce or tip us into a deeper slowdown. The data—housing’s slump, oil’s slide, crypto’s crash—screams caution, yet pockets of strength in Europe and Asia hint at adaptability.

Nvidia’s underwhelming “win” feels symbolic: growth is still possible, but the easy gains are gone. Investors are right to be skittish; tariffs could stoke inflation just as growth falters, a stagflationary nightmare the Fed’s ill-equipped to handle if yields keep dropping. I’m skeptical of Trump’s ability to thread this needle—his track record leans more toward disruption than finesse. But markets are nothing if not resilient, and the next few weeks, with Fed testimony and more tariff clarity looming, will test that resilience to the hilt. For now, I’d say buckle up: this ride’s only getting bumpier.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-recap-europe-gains-crypto-falls-and-trade-fears-grow-20250227/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j