The Federal Reserve has officially initiated its rate cut cycle, a move long anticipated by markets that have already priced in approximately 3.8 cuts over the next 12 months. I forecast two additional reductions on October 29 and December 12.
Historically, the period immediately following the first rate cut has been marked by heightened volatility as markets recalibrate their expectations, reassess risk premiums, and digest the implications of a new monetary regime.
This transitional phase is particularly delicate because it often coincides with divergent signals from economic data, political uncertainty, and evolving investor positioning. All of these factors are present in today’s environment.
Equities and the magnificent seven effect
Equity markets, led by the S&P 500’s impressive 32 per cent rally from its recent lows, reflect a strong recovery narrative driven disproportionately by the so-called Magnificent Seven (Mag7) stocks. These technology and growth-oriented giants continue to post earnings growth roughly four times that of the remaining 493 companies in the index, underscoring their outsized influence on overall market performance.
However, this concentration introduces significant risk. Mag7 valuations now exceed 30 times forward earnings, not yet at their historical peaks but certainly in elevated territory. While historical backtesting suggests that equities generally perform well in the 12 to 24 months following the start of a Fed easing cycle, the current context differs in important ways.
The market’s narrow leadership, combined with stretched valuations, makes indiscriminate exposure to these names increasingly perilous. Chasing performance at this juncture could expose investors to sharp corrections if earnings disappoint or if macro risks materialise. Diversification, not just across sectors but across geographies and asset classes, emerges as a critical defensive and offensive strategy.
Investor positioning and market signals
Investor positioning data reveals that asset managers hold high equity allocations, though not at extreme levels that typically precede major drawdowns. Meanwhile, equity volatility remains subdued, a condition that historically correlates with lower forward returns over the subsequent six to twelve months.
This low-volatility complacency can lull investors into underestimating tail risks, especially when other asset classes also appear expensive. Gold, for instance, has seen renewed inflows into bullion-backed ETFs and now trades near US$3,760 per ounce, supported by geopolitical tensions and a modestly weaker US dollar, which closed at 98.152.
Yet gold positioning is once again crowded, suggesting limited room for further upside without a significant catalyst such as a sharp escalation in global instability or a deeper-than-expected economic slowdown. Similarly, credit markets show tight bond spreads, indicating that investors are not demanding much compensation for credit risk. In such an environment, security selection becomes paramount.
Broad exposure to high-yield or investment-grade debt may not suffice. Instead, bottom-up analysis of issuer fundamentals is essential.
Mixed economic signals and political risks
The macroeconomic backdrop offers mixed signals. August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3 per cent month-over-month, resulting in a 2.7 per cent annual headline rate. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, stood at 2.9 per cent year-over-year after a 0.2 per cent monthly increase.
This remains above the Fed’s two per cent target but shows signs of gradual moderation. The data came in largely in line with expectations and did not provoke a strong market reaction, suggesting that investors have already internalised a path of gradual disinflation. However, political risks loom large.
The September 30 deadline for US government funding is fast approaching, and with congressional negotiations stalled, the probability of a partial shutdown is rising. While past shutdowns have had limited economic impact, they inject uncertainty into market psychology and could delay fiscal policy decisions or data releases, further complicating the Fed’s communication strategy.
Wall Street’s reaction and treasury yields
Market reactions to recent events have been muted but telling. Wall Street closed higher last Friday, ending a three-day losing streak, with the Dow Jones up 0.7 per cent, the S&P 500 gaining 0.6 per cent, and the Nasdaq rising 0.4 per cent.
Notably, markets barely flinched at the announcement of new sector-specific tariffs by the Trump administration, signalling either desensitisation to trade rhetoric or confidence that such measures will not significantly disrupt the broader economic trajectory. Treasury yields reflected this calm.
The 10-year yield edged up just one basis point to 4.183 per cent, while the two-year yield dipped two basis points to 3.645 per cent, flattening the yield curve slightly. This dynamic suggests that while near-term rate expectations are stable, longer-term growth and inflation concerns persist.
Asia’s cautious mood and key data ahead
In Asia, equities dipped on Friday as resilient US data prompted a modest reassessment of rate cut expectations. US equity index futures point to a higher open, indicating that global investors remain cautiously optimistic. The coming week will be pivotal, with the September nonfarm payrolls report on October 3 serving as a key barometer of labor market health.
Additional insights will come from the JOLTS job openings data on Tuesday and the ADP private payroll report on Wednesday. Labour market strength remains the Fed’s primary concern. If employment data remains robust, it could delay further rate cuts or reduce their magnitude, directly impacting risk asset valuations.
Bitcoin’s technical recovery
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has staged a “reasonable” technical recovery, rising 2.24 per cent in the past 24 hours to US$111,966 after a 7-day decline of 2.23 per cent. This rebound appears driven by three converging factors. First, price action held firm at the US$108,680 support level, breaking a bearish trend line and reclaiming the US$111,000 mark.
Hourly indicators, including a bullish MACD crossover and an RSI stabilising around 47-48, suggest that short-term momentum has shifted in favour of buyers. The 200-day exponential moving average at US$106,200 continues to act as a structural support, reinforcing the asset’s resilience.
However, the critical test lies ahead. A sustained close above US$112,500, the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline, could pave the way for US$113,700 to US$115,000. Failure to break this resistance may invite profit-taking and a retest of the lower support level.
On-chain metrics and corporate adoption
Second, on-chain metrics show improving demand dynamics. The 60-day Buy/Sell Pressure Delta has entered what analysts describe as an opportunity zone, indicating reduced selling pressure.
The decline in sending addresses and stable miner reserves, holding steady at 1.8 million BTC, suggests that long-term holders are not capitulating. That said, the 90-day delta remains cautious, reflecting lingering uncertainty among larger participants. The Coinbase Premium Index, currently at +0.041, will be a key gauge of sustained US institutional interest.
Third, corporate adoption continues to provide narrative support. The rebranding of 164-year-old Japanese textile firm Marusho Hotta to Bitcoin Japan and its announcement of a BTC treasury business, while small in absolute scale, aligns with a growing trend among Asian corporations seeking alternative stores of value amid declining traditional revenues.
Firms like Metaplanet and Kitabo have similarly adopted Bitcoin, reinforcing its digital gold thesis in a region that is increasingly skeptical of fiat stability.
Final thoughts: Selectivity over momentum
In sum, the current market environment demands a nuanced approach. While the Fed’s pivot to easing should, in theory, support risk assets over the medium term, the combination of expensive valuations, narrow market leadership, and external risks ranging from a potential government shutdown to geopolitical flare-ups calls for disciplined selectivity.
Investors should avoid chasing momentum in already crowded trades and instead focus on quality earnings, global diversification, and tactical entry points during pullbacks.
Source: https://e27.co/the-feds-first-rate-cut-what-it-means-for-equities-risk-and-crypto-20250929/
Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.
Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.
An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.
