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The market just hit a nerve: Is this the start of a 7 per cent crash?

The market just hit a nerve: Is this the start of a 7 per cent crash?

The narrative of a year-end rally persists but faces headwinds from softening labour data and geopolitical shifts. In my view, this moment represents a healthy pause in an otherwise robust bull market that began surging after the dramatic events of April 2025. That month marked what President Trump dubbed Liberation Day on April 2, when he unveiled sweeping tariffs across nearly all sectors of the US economy.

The announcement sparked immediate panic and a sharp sell-off, but markets quickly rebounded as companies announced massive onshore investments to sidestep the trade barriers. This rally propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to impressive heights over the summer. Still, now signs of fatigue emerge in both the US and China, the two economic powerhouses driving global growth.

Market exhaustion and sector pressures

The United States stock market showed clear exhaustion last Friday, with major indices closing lower amid broader concerns about the pace of economic expansion. The S&P 500 declined by 0.32 per cent, the Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.03 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.48 per cent. Energy and financial sectors led the downturn, as traders reacted to softer-than-expected labour figures and anticipation of Federal Reserve actions.

Nvidia, the bellwether of the technology sector, dipped below its 50-day moving average for the first time in weeks, trading around US$172 per share, while the average hovered at US$172.32 per share. This technical breach signals potential volatility in tech-heavy indices, where Nvidia’s performance often sets the tone.

The AI hype meets reality

Investors poured billions into artificial intelligence plays earlier this year, fuelled by the post-Liberation Day optimism, but now they demand tangible results rather than vague promises. Companies must demonstrate how AI translates into revenue and efficiency gains, or risk sharp corrections.

Salesforce exemplified this shift last week when its shares faced pressure amid fierce competition in the AI arena. The company rolled out new AI products under its Agentforce platform, aiming to empower small and medium-sized businesses with autonomous agents for tasks like customer service and data analysis.

However, rivals like Microsoft and Google intensified their offerings, with integrations that challenge Salesforce’s dominance in customer relationship management. Salesforce executives highlighted predictions that AI agents will transform industries by 2025, enabling smaller firms to compete with giants through more intelligent automation. Yet, market reaction turned skeptical as earnings reports revealed slower adoption rates than anticipated.

In my opinion, Salesforce remains well-positioned for the long term because its ecosystem seamlessly integrates AI across sales, marketing, and service tools. However, short-term hurdles from competition could cap the upside until proof of widespread deployment materialises. This evolving AI theme underscores a broader market maturation, where hype gives way to fundamentals.

Currency markets and the dollar debate

On the currency front, bets against the US dollar appear overly aggressive at this juncture. The Dollar Index closed 0.6 per cent lower last Friday at around 97.93, reflecting heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. A steadier US economy, combined with persistent inflation above the Fed’s target, suggests fewer cuts than the market currently prices in, anticipating about five 25-basis-point reductions through September 2026.

The August non-farm payrolls report added fuel to this fire, showing only 22,000 jobs added, far below the forecasted 75,000, while June figures were revised to an outright loss. Unemployment climbed to 4.3 per cent, the highest in nearly four years, prompting traders to bake in a 25 basis point cut for the September 17 meeting and even 12 per cent odds of a 50 basis point move.

Yet, I believe the dollar’s downside remains limited. President Trump’s administration has secured over US$5 trillion in new onshore investments from companies and countries alike, including a US$1 trillion commitment from Japan and US$600 billion from Saudi Arabia over the next four years.

These inflows, aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing amid the trade war, will sustain demand for the greenback. If the Dollar Index surges past 100, it could pressure US equities, particularly megacap stocks like those in the Magnificent Seven, which derive significant revenue from overseas operations.

Seasonal corrections and buying opportunities

A pullback of five to seven per cent in the S&P 500 seems likely, and perhaps steeper for the Nasdaq given its outsized gains since the Liberation Day rebound. The index wiped out all 2025 losses by mid-May, climbing from April lows around 6,000 to current levels near 6,450. No major negative catalysts loom on the horizon, such as earnings disappointments or policy shocks, so any correction should prove shallow and short-lived.

Strong buy orders cluster at key support levels, like the 200-day moving average for the S&P around 6,200, which could absorb selling pressure and preserve constructive sentiment heading into the traditional post-September rally. Historically, markets often experience the “September blues” but rebound strongly into year-end, especially when central banks ease their policy. With the Fed poised for cuts and global liquidity ample, I see this dip as a buying opportunity for long-term investors focused on AI and infrastructure themes.

Global macro landscape

Turning to the macro landscape, global risk appetite found some relief after US indices trimmed losses from recent peaks. Traders parsed the soft labor data, which highlighted a cooling job market without tipping into recession territory. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that average hourly earnings rose 0.3 per cent to US$36.53, indicating that wage pressures persist and could keep inflation sticky.

US Treasuries extended their rally, with the two-year yield dropping 7.9 basis points to 3.51 per cent and the ten-year yield falling 8.7 basis points to 4.07 per cent. This flight to safety reflects bets on aggressive Fed easing, but longer-term yields remain elevated due to fiscal expansion under the current administration. Gold prices climbed 1.2 per cent to hold above US$3,500 per ounce, reaching US$3,590 on Monday as a hedge against uncertainty.

Brent crude oil retreated 2.2 per cent toward US$65 per barrel, with OPEC+ signalling plans to increase production amid ample supply and softening demand forecasts. S&P Global analysts predict dated Brent could slide to US$55 by year-end, pressured by trade tensions and slower global growth.

Asia’s market resilience

Asian equity markets opened stronger on Monday, buoyed by political developments in Japan. The Nikkei 225 advanced 1.62 per cent to 43,714, leading gains after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation over the weekend. Ishiba stepped down following his Liberal Democratic Party’s historic election losses in July, which eroded his support and raised questions about fiscal policy continuity.

The yen weakened against the dollar on fears that political instability would delay Bank of Japan rate hikes, trading near 150 yen per chat. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.24 per cent to 3,212, while Australia’s ASX 200 dipped 0.45 per cent.

Investors now await China’s August trade data, released later today, to assess the trade war’s toll. Exports grew at the slowest pace in six months, missing forecasts as shipments to the US declined sharply despite a brief truce in tariffs. Imports fell even more, signaling weak domestic demand. The US imposed tariffs up to 145 per cent on Chinese goods this year, escalating the conflict and prompting Beijing to retaliate with measures on American agriculture and tech.

In my assessment, China’s economy faces headwinds from this standoff, but stimulus measures, such as fee cuts in its US$4.9 trillion mutual fund industry, could provide a buffer. Overall, Asian markets demonstrate resilience, with tech and value stocks trading below their estimated worth, offering attractive entry points.

Crypto markets: Signs of recovery

The cryptocurrency market mirrored broader risk assets, with Bitcoin staging a modest recovery after three weeks of declines from its all-time high of US$124,474. The leading digital asset steadied at around US$110,900 on Monday, up nearly three per cent for the week. Technical indicators support further upside if momentum builds. The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart rose to 46, indicating a shift toward the neutral 50 level as bearish pressure subsides.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence flashed a bullish crossover on Saturday, signalling improving sentiment and potential buy opportunities. Should Bitcoin push past its daily resistance at US$116,000, it could extend the rally toward US$120,000, driven by institutional inflows and halving cycle dynamics. However, a breakdown below US$105,573 in support might trigger a deeper correction toward US$100,000, especially if equity markets wobble.

Ethereum, meanwhile, consolidated between US$4,232 and US$4,488 for nine straight days, trading around US$4,300 after bouncing from the lower boundary. The RSI hovered near 50, reflecting trader indecision. A close above US$4,488 could propel Ethereum toward its record high of US$4,956, bolstered by network upgrades and ETF approvals.

Conversely, a drop below US$4,232 risks testing the 50-day exponential moving average at US$4,077. In the crypto realm, I remain bullish on both assets as adoption accelerates, but volatility tied to macro events like Fed decisions warrants caution. Bitcoin’s role as digital gold strengthens amid dollar strength debates, while Ethereum’s utility in decentralised finance positions it for outsized gains if AI integrations proliferate.

Closing thoughts: A balanced outlook

In reflecting on this market snapshot, I advocate a balanced yet optimistic stance. The post-Liberation Day rally transformed the economic landscape, channeling trillions into US onshore projects that promise job creation and supply chain resilience. Sure, trade wars with China inflict pain, curbing export growth and inflating costs, but they also spur innovation and domestic investment.

The weak jobs report underscores the need for Fed easing, which should lubricate markets without igniting inflation spirals. Political turbulence in Japan adds uncertainty, but history shows such transitions often lead to pro-growth policies.

For investors, focus on quality names in AI, renewables, and infrastructure to navigate the pullback. A five to seven per cent dip offers a chance to accumulate, as year-end tailwinds from holiday spending and tax strategies loom large.

Crypto enthusiasts should view Bitcoin’s technical rebound as a sign of resilience, while Ethereum’s consolidation suggests a breakout if global liquidity flows in. Overall, markets are taking a breather now, but the underlying momentum remains upward. Prudent positioning today sets the stage for substantial rewards by 2026.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-market-just-hit-a-nerve-is-this-the-start-of-a-7-per-cent-crash-20250908/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The perfect storm: Jobs plunge, tariffs hit, and crypto volatility soars

The perfect storm: Jobs plunge, tariffs hit, and crypto volatility soars

Global risk sentiment has taken a noticeable hit recently, and it’s not hard to see why. A weaker-than-expected US ISM services PMI report for July, dropping to 50.1 from 50.8 in June, has raised eyebrows. Any reading below 50 signals contraction, and while 50.1 is just above that line, it’s a close call that suggests the services sector, a massive chunk of the US economy, is losing steam.

Firms are cutting jobs too, with the employment index plunging to 46.4, one of the lowest levels since the pandemic shook things up. This points to tepid demand and rising costs squeezing businesses, and it’s a red flag for anyone watching the broader economic picture.

Then there’s the trade situation, which feels like throwing fuel on an already flickering fire. President Trump has put out word that he’s gearing up to slap tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals, with the latter starting small but potentially ramping up to a jaw-dropping 250 per cent down the road.

He’s also planning to hike tariffs on Indian goods substantially, and he means to do it fast, within the next 24 hours. These moves could rattle global supply chains, jack up prices for everything from tech to medicine, and sour trade ties with a big player like India. Markets hate uncertainty, and this is a textbook case of it.

The US stock markets didn’t waste time reacting. The S&P 500 dropped 0.5 per cent, the Dow Jones edged down 0.1 per cent, and the Nasdaq took a 0.7 per cent hit. Investors are clearly jittery, pulling back from riskier bets as they digest the economic slowdown signals and the tariff threats. US Treasuries, meanwhile, had a mixed day after two sessions of gains.

The 10-year yield ticked up 1.8 basis points to 4.210 per cent, while the 30-year yield slipped 1.1 basis points to 4.780 per cent. That split tells a story of its own, hinting at confusion over where interest rates and inflation might head next, especially with talk of a Federal Reserve rate cut picking up steam.

Speaking of the Fed, the US Dollar Index, or DXY, is hanging out near recent lows, closing slightly down at 98.78 after last Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. A softer dollar could give US exports a boost, but it also means imports might get pricier, which could stoke inflation just when the economy looks shaky. Gold, always a go-to when things feel uncertain, climbed 0.2 per cent, riding the wave of that weaker dollar and bets on a Fed rate cut coming soon.

On the flip side, Brent crude took a 1.3 per cent dive to US$67 a barrel, thanks to news that the Kremlin might pause air strikes to dodge Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions. That’s a geopolitical chess move that could steady oil prices or shift the conversation with the US, depending on how it plays out.

While the US markets nursed their wounds, Asian stock markets caught a second wind on Tuesday. Investors over there are feeling optimistic, pricing in a 90 per cent chance of a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. That kind of monetary easing could pump some life into global growth, and Asian markets opened higher this morning, shrugging off the gloom stateside. US equity index futures suggest a mixed open back home, so it’s clear the world’s not moving in lockstep on this one.

The crypto angle: Bitcoin, altcoins, and market mood

Now, let’s zoom in on the cryptocurrency market, where things are just as messy but with a twist of their own. Bitcoin recently slid to US$112,000, and normally, you’d expect altcoins to perk up when the big dog stumbles, maybe even kick off an altcoin season. That hasn’t happened this time. Solana’s down 9.45 per cent over the past week, XRP’s off 5.48 per cent, and Dogecoin’s taken a 10.80 per cent beating. The altcoin crowd isn’t catching a bid, and that’s got people wondering what’s up.

Over the last 30 days, Bitcoin’s dominance, its share of the total crypto market cap, has slipped by nearly 5.5 per cent. Meanwhile, Ether’s been on a tear, jumping 40 per cent. You’d think that might mean traders are diving into riskier assets, but the broader altcoin slump tells a different story. It looks more like folks are cashing out Ether’s gains rather than piling into the next big thing.

The OTHERS index, which tracks altcoins outside the top 10 by market cap, crashed 18.7 per cent in just 10 days before bouncing back a bit. That’s a clear sign of investors running from the high-risk, high-reward corners of the market, mirroring the cautious vibe globally.

Bitcoin itself is holding the spotlight, though, and not without reason. Its price just retested a key weekly uptrend line, a level that’s sparked big moves before. Back in early 2023, it broke out of a downtrend after a similar retest and shot up over 95 per cent. In 2024, it did it again, climbing 171 per cent past US$73,000.

Now, in August 2025, it’s bounced off that same ascending support, and analysts are eyeing a short-term target of US$123,300, with a longer-term goal of US$150,000. There’s even talk of an inverse head and shoulders pattern on a 2-day chart, a bullish setup that could push Bitcoin to US$170,000 if it plays out. Volume’s backing the breakout, moving averages are turning up, and the neckline at US$110,000 is holding as support. That’s a 40-50 per cent upside from where we sit, which is no small potatoes.

Adding fuel to the fire, a whale has placed a massive leveraged long bet on Bitcoin, and parabolic chart projections are floating around, hinting at another wild ride. Big bets like that can juice the market, but they also bring volatility, and a wrong move could spark liquidations. Still, the technicals are lining up for a potential rally, and history suggests this trendline retest could be the start of something big.

Piecing it together: What’s driving all this?

So, what’s the bigger picture here? The global risk retreat ties straight back to the US economy, showing cracks. The services sector slowdown and job cuts signal weaker growth ahead, and Trump’s tariff plans are stirring the pot, threatening to disrupt trade and hike costs. Stock markets in the US are feeling the heat, while Asia’s betting on a Fed lifeline to keep things humming. Gold’s up, oil’s down, and the dollar’s soft, all classic moves when uncertainty reigns.

In crypto, the story’s a bit split. Altcoins are floundering, suggesting investors are playing it safe or pocketing gains rather than chasing the next moonshot. Bitcoin, though, looks poised for a breakout, backed by solid technicals and some heavy hitters betting big. It’s a tale of two markets, caution on one side, opportunity on the other.

My take: Risks and rewards in a shaky world

Here’s where I weigh in. The US data is worrisome, no doubt, and those tariffs could make a challenging situation worse, hitting consumers and businesses alike. But the Fed’s got room to step in, and if they cut rates, it could cushion the blow and give markets a lift, especially outside the US. Asia’s already banking on that, and they might be onto something.

Crypto’s trickier. Altcoins look stuck, and I wouldn’t hold my breath for a sudden rally there. Too many folks are sitting on the sidelines or cashing out. Bitcoin’s another story. The setup feels legit, and if it breaks out, US$150,000 or even US$170,000 isn’t crazy talk. That said, the macro risks, like a deeper US slowdown or a trade war flare-up, could derail it. Leverage in the mix makes me nervous, too. Volatility cuts both ways.

For anyone playing these markets, it’s about balance. Keep an eye on the Fed, watch how those tariffs land, and don’t sleep on Bitcoin’s next move. Diversifying’s smart, there’s too much up in the air to go all-in anywhere.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-perfect-storm-jobs-plunge-tariffs-hit-and-crypto-volatility-soars-20250806/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Coinbase Denies Bombshell Claim it Fueled Trump-Binance Hit Piece

Coinbase Denies Bombshell Claim it Fueled Trump-Binance Hit Piece

Tensions in the crypto sector escalated over the weekend following allegations that Coinbase was the unnamed source behind a Bloomberg report scrutinizing Donald Trump’s crypto project, World Liberty Financial, and Binance.

Coinbase exec, however, has denied the allegations.

Allegations Stir Crypto Rivalries

Crypto commentator Matt Wallace claimed on X that Coinbase executives were concerned that a potential pardon for Binance’s former CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao could clear the way for his return. He alleged they attempted to undermine the crypto exchange out of fear that its re-entry into the US market would threaten Coinbase’s market share.

Wallace described Coinbase’s alleged targeting of Trump as “anti-American,” and added that the company’s leadership viewed Binance’s legal return as a direct threat to their business. The post was later reshared by Zhao, who neither confirmed nor denied the claims but indicated that he may consider legal action against Bloomberg for defamation.

Bloomberg’s report had detailed Binance’s involvement in creating the smart contract for USD1, a stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, while linking Zhao to a request for a presidential pardon shortly after the token featured in a multibillion-dollar UAE investment deal with Binance. The report further stated that a significant share of USD1 tokens remains in Binance wallets, which suggests potential interest earnings for the exchange.

Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, responded directly to Wallace’s accusations on X and called them “pure misinformation.” He also asserted that Coinbase had no involvement in providing information to Bloomberg.

“We don’t attack competitors, and we welcome any businesses that share our goal of growing the crypto pie. You should keep looking for an actual source.”

“Standard Collaboration, Not Corruption”

The episode has drawn significant attention from industry players. Blockchain advisor Anndy Lian also criticized Bloomberg’s report on Binance and Trump. In a post on X, Lian noted the article relied on anonymous sources without concrete evidence of payments or explicit coordination between Trump and CZ.

He argued the piece exploited a national tragedy for political narratives and lacked a factual basis. He also added that the crypto exchange’s activities align with industry norms and that no direct evidence links Trump’s business interests to policy decisions.

CZ had stepped down as Binance’s CEO last year following legal settlements with US authorities, and has kept a relatively low profile ever since. In May, CZ confirmed applying for a presidential pardon from Trump after reports linked him to such efforts.

Citing Trump’s past BitMEX pardons, the Binance co-founder said that he’s the only person jailed solely for a BSA violation. Despite seeking clemency, CZ said that he won’t return to Binance leadership.

 

 

Source: https://cryptopotato.com/coinbase-denies-bombshell-claim-it-fueled-trump-binance-hit-piece/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j