March 26th, 2026

Bitcoin holds US$71K as Ethereum surges 15%: What’s driving the US$2.44T crypto rally

The digital asset market edged higher, climbing 0.63 per cent to reach a total capitalisation of US$2.44T over the past 24 hours. This modest advance reflects a market searching for direction amid competing forces, with momentum in the Ethereum ecosystem and institutional staking flows providing the primary lift. The move shows a moderate 50 per cent correlation with the S&P 500, which itself rose 0.5 per cent to approximately 6,591.90, suggesting that macro drivers continue to influence both traditional and digital asset classes.

Ethereum’s ecosystem stands out as the clear leader, with its market capitalisation surging by 15.58 per cent over the past 24 hours. This outperformance stems from concrete institutional activity rather than speculative fervour. BitMine Immersion Technologies launched MAVAN, an institutional Ethereum staking platform that now holds over 3.14M ETH, representing roughly US$6.8B in committed capital. This development matters because it channels yield-seeking institutional money into the network, reducing immediate sell pressure and reinforcing Ethereum’s role as a core settlement layer. The ongoing dialogue around Ethereum’s L1 and L2 strategy further strengthens this narrative, positioning the network as foundational infrastructure rather than merely a speculative vehicle. When large players allocate billions toward staking, they signal confidence in the protocol’s long-term value accrual, and that confidence tends to ripple through the broader market.

Derivatives data support a healthier backdrop for this advance. Total open interest rose 3.34 per cent while Bitcoin liquidations fell 49 per cent to US$44.92M, indicating that the recent squeeze on over-leveraged positions has eased. The average funding rate remains positive at 0.0017 per cent, indicating balanced leverage rather than excessive bullish speculation. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index ticked up to 36, still in Fear territory but a notable improvement from extreme levels. These metrics suggest that spot buying and staking activity, not leveraged gambling, drive the current uptick. I view this as a constructive shift because markets advance more sustainably when grounded in real demand rather than fleeting leverage. A sustained drop in liquidation volumes and stabilisation of funding rates would further confirm that the market foundation is strengthening.

The near-term trajectory hinges on clear technical levels and upcoming catalysts. Bitcoin must hold above US$71,000 to maintain bullish momentum, while the total market cap needs to stay above the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement support at US$2.41T. A confirmed break above the US$2.49T resistance, which aligns with the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci level, could open a path toward US$2.56T. Conversely, failing to hold US$2.41T would invalidate the bounce and likely trigger a retest of lower support near US$2.33T. The potential launch of Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF, ticker MSBT, represents a key upcoming catalyst that could influence institutional flows. I watch these levels closely because they reflect not just price action but the market’s collective assessment of risk and opportunity. Technical structure matters most when it aligns with fundamental drivers, and right now, Ethereum staking inflows provide that alignment.

Traditional markets provided a supportive backdrop for this crypto advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7 per cent, adding 305.43 points to close at 46,429.49, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8 per cent to 21,929.83, supported by strength in AI-related technology stocks like Nvidia and AMD. European indices posted strong gains, with the FTSE 100 rising 1.42 per cent, the DAX advancing 1.41 per cent, and the CAC 40 climbing 1.33 per cent. Asian markets showed mixed but generally positive performance, with the Nikkei 225 surging 3.08 per cent to 53,860 points, the Straits Times Index gaining 1.10 per cent, and the Hang Seng rising 0.88 per cent. This global equity strength reflects cautious optimism about geopolitical developments, including reports that the United States delivered a potential ceasefire plan to Iran, easing some immediate fears of a wider Middle East conflict. I note that crypto’s moderate correlation with equities means it can benefit from this risk-on sentiment while still responding to its own unique catalysts.

Commodity and currency markets added nuance to the macro picture. Brent Crude rose slightly to US$102.97 per barrel, up 0.74 per cent on the day, indicating that energy supply concerns persist even as geopolitical tensions ease. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.38 per cent, reflecting investor expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer, which typically pressures risk assets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2 per cent as the euro and pound weakened slightly against the greenback, suggesting some safe-haven demand for the US currency. Bitcoin traded around US$70,727, up one per cent, aligning with the broader crypto market advance. I see these cross-asset moves as important context because they shape the liquidity environment in which digital assets operate. When Treasury yields rise and the dollar strengthens, crypto faces headwinds, and the current advance shows that ecosystem-specific catalysts can offset broader macro pressure.

Labour market data and global economic outlooks also influence investor positioning. US initial jobless claims were expected at 211K, signalling a cooling but still resilient labour market, which affects Federal Reserve policy expectations. The OECD released its Interim Economic Outlook, highlighting the shift towards embedded finance as a structural market driver, a trend that directly intersects with blockchain and digital asset adoption. I view embedded finance as a critical frontier because it represents the seamless integration of financial services into everyday digital experiences, and blockchain technology enables the transparency and efficiency that this integration demands. When major institutions acknowledge these structural shifts, it reinforces the long-term case for decentralised infrastructure, even if short-term price action remains volatile.

The key question centres on whether institutional staking demand continues to grow and whether Bitcoin can sustain its key support levels amid ongoing macro uncertainty. Will Ethereum’s role as a yield-generating asset attract enough capital to offset broader headwinds from elevated Treasury yields and a strong dollar? For now, the data supports a constructive but measured outlook, with clear levels to watch and catalysts to monitor as the market navigates this complex macro landscape.

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-holds-us71k-as-ethereum-surges-15-whats-driving-the-us2-44t-crypto-rally-20260326/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

May 5th, 2025

Market wrap: Global optimism boosts stocks, Bitcoin holds support , Ethereum bulllish

The improved global risk sentiment stems largely from renewed optimism surrounding prospective trade deals and a surprisingly robust US jobs report. The April nonfarm payrolls data, which revealed the addition of 177,000 new jobs, well above the consensus estimate of 138,000, has bolstered confidence in the resilience of the US economy.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.2 per cent, indicating a labour market that, while not showing signs of significant slowdown, remains balanced. However, this rosy picture comes with a caveat: the lingering effects of recent tariffs have yet to fully materialise in the economic data. As these measures filter through supply chains and consumer prices, their impact could temper this optimism in the months ahead, introducing an element of uncertainty that investors would be wise to monitor.

In the equity markets, the S&P 500 has emerged as a standout performer, climbing 1.5 per cent and extending its winning streak to nine consecutive days—the longest such run in two decades. This remarkable rally, which has seen gains across all major sectors, reflects a broad-based confidence among investors, likely fuelled by the combination of strong economic fundamentals and expectations of continued policy stability. Such an extended period of uninterrupted gains is rare and speaks to the current strength of market sentiment.

Yet, history suggests that prolonged upward trajectories can sometimes precede corrections, as valuations stretch and profit-taking becomes tempting. For now, though, the focus remains on the positive, with corporate earnings season providing further opportunities to gauge the health of US businesses. With 2,043 firms, including 94 from the S&P 500, set to report between May 5 and May 9, these results will offer critical insights into whether this rally has legs or if cracks are beginning to form beneath the surface.

The bond market, meanwhile, has seen a notable shift, with US Treasury yields rising across the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 9.1 basis points to close at 4.308 per cent, while the two year yield surged by 12.5 basis points to 3.824 per cent. This upward movement in yields signals a retreat from recession fears that had previously weighed on investor sentiment. Market participants now appear to anticipate that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady for an extended period, a stance that aligns with the robust jobs data and easing concerns about an economic downturn.

Higher yields can serve as a double-edged sword: they attract income-seeking investors and bolster confidence in risk assets, but they also raise borrowing costs, which could eventually constrain growth in sectors reliant on cheap credit, such as real estate and consumer goods. For now, the market seems to be interpreting this development as a sign of strength rather than a harbinger of trouble.

Currency and commodity markets have also responded to these dynamics. The US Dollar index slipped by 0.22 per cent to 100.030, reflecting a slight weakening against a basket of major currencies. This decline aligns with the improved global risk appetite, as investors shift away from the dollar’s traditional safe-haven status toward higher-yielding opportunities elsewhere.

Gold, another classic safe-haven asset, edged up by 0.04per cent, a modest gain that might seem puzzling amid a weakening dollar and rising risk sentiment. This uptick could indicate a hedging strategy among some investors, perhaps as a precaution against potential inflationary pressures or geopolitical surprises down the road. In contrast, Brent crude oil has continued to slide, dropping 1.4 per cent and marking its second consecutive weekly loss.

Investors are now keenly awaiting the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting, which could either stabilise prices through production adjustments or exacerbate the decline if supply outpaces demand expectations. Oil’s trajectory remains a wildcard, heavily influenced by both economic and geopolitical factors.

Across the Pacific, Asian markets have mirrored this optimism, with equities and foreign exchange rates rallying late last week on hopes of an improving relationship between the United States and China. Such a thaw in tensions could have far-reaching implications, easing trade frictions that have disrupted global supply chains and weighed on economic growth in recent years.

For export-driven economies in Asia, this development is particularly encouraging, as it promises a more favourable environment for trade and investment. Closer to home, Singapore’s political landscape has provided another dose of stability, with the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) securing a stronger mandate in the latest election. The party’s popular vote rose to 65.5 per cent from 61.2 per cent in 2020, signalling continuity in governance and policy—a factor that typically reassures markets and supports economic confidence in the region.

Looking ahead, the week promises to be eventful, with key central bank decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England on the horizon. These announcements will be pivotal in shaping expectations around monetary policy, particularly as inflation, growth, and geopolitical risks remain in focus.

The Fed’s stance, in particular, will be scrutinised for any hints of deviation from its current pause, given the mixed signals from rising yields and strong economic data. At the same time, the ongoing US earnings season will provide a granular view of corporate performance, offering clues about whether the S&P 500’s rally is grounded in sustainable profits or simply buoyant sentiment.

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin and Ethereum present intriguing narratives of their own. Bitcoin has returned to its yearly open price and appears to be in an accumulation phase, characterised by sideways price action rather than aggressive moves in either direction. This consolidation often serves as a precursor to a breakout, and the key level to watch is 93,548. If Bitcoin can hold above this threshold, the psychologically significant 100,000 mark comes into view, a milestone that could ignite further enthusiasm among traders and investors.

However, the downside risks are equally noteworthy. Should Bitcoin falter, support levels at 91,619 (a swing low from April 24), 90,561 (an old break-away gap on the four-hour chart), and 88,500 (a former resistance zone) will come into play. A break below 88,000 would mark a significant shift, potentially signaling a broader reversal in sentiment. For now, the market seems poised on the edge of possibility, with traders eyeing both the upside potential and the pitfalls below.

Ethereum, meanwhile, is exhibiting its own consolidation pattern, trading at US$3,150 on Binance as of May 5, up a modest 1.2 per cent over the past 24 hours. Since April 28, it has oscillated between a support level of US$3,000 and resistance at US$3,250, a tight range that hints at pent-up volatility. Trading volume for ETH/USDT on Binance has jumped by 15 per cent to 320,000 ETH in the last 24 hours, reflecting growing interest among market participants.

On-chain data from Glassnode adds a layer of optimism, showing an increase in wallet addresses holding more than 10 ETH—an indication of accumulation by larger investors, often a bullish signal. Network activity further supports this narrative, with daily transactions rising seven per cent to 1.2 million on May 4, underscoring Ethereum’s sustained user engagement. For traders, the consolidation suggests a potential upward move if resistance at US$3,250 gives way, though a failure to break out could see prices retreat toward the lower end of the range.

Stepping back, the broader market outlook reflects a delicate balance between opportunity and caution. The positive momentum—driven by strong US economic data, hopes of trade resolutions, and a stable political backdrop in places like Singapore—provides a solid foundation for risk assets. Yet, the spectre of tariffs, geopolitical uncertainties, and the possibility of policy shifts from central banks introduces risks that cannot be ignored.

In the cryptocurrency realm, Bitcoin and Ethereum are at pivotal junctures, with technical patterns and on-chain metrics pointing to potential upside, tempered by the need to hold critical levels. For investors, this environment calls for a nuanced strategy: embracing the current wave of optimism while remaining vigilant for signs of strain.

Diversification, close attention to macroeconomic cues, and adaptability will be key to thriving in this dynamic landscape, where the interplay of global forces continues to shape the path ahead.

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-global-optimism-boosts-stocks-bitcoin-holds-support-ethereum-bulllish-20250505/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

February 11th, 2025

Global risk sentiment holds steady amid tariffs, AI optimism, and crypto shifts

The financial landscape is navigating an ever-shifting environment, with risk sentiment holding steady despite significant macroeconomic developments on 11 February 2025.

One of the most notable events in recent days has been President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all steel and aluminium imports, a move that includes key trading partners like Mexico and Canada without any exemptions. This policy, enacted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, has sent shockwaves through global markets, raising fears of potential trade conflicts and their broader economic fallout.

Trump has also hinted at the possibility of further increasing these tariffs and suggested the introduction of reciprocal tariffs, which could be announced as early as today or Wednesday. These developments have heightened market uncertainty as investors and analysts closely monitor whether these threats will materialise and how they might reshape global trade dynamics.

At the same time, the US corporate earnings season has provided a stabilising force, with strong performances from American companies reinforcing confidence in the economy’s underlying health.

However, the interplay between these macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, alongside other global trends such as Japan’s potential reclassification of cryptocurrencies and significant Bitcoin acquisitions by firms like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), paints a multifaceted picture of the current financial environment.

In this article, I will explore these developments in detail, analyse their potential impacts, and offer my perspective on how they shape the global risk sentiment.

Tariffs and market reactions

Let’s start with the tariff announcement, which has dominated financial news and market discussions in recent days. President Trump’s decision to impose a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium imports under Section 232—a provision that allows the president to restrict imports deemed a threat to national security—marks a significant escalation in US trade policy.

Unlike previous tariff actions, which often included exemptions for key allies, this move explicitly excludes Mexico and Canada, two of the United States’ largest trading partners. This lack of exemptions has raised concerns, as it signals a more aggressive and unilateral approach to trade policy. Trump’s comments over the weekend and his warning that tariffs could “go higher” have added to the uncertainty, with market participants now bracing for the possibility of reciprocal tariffs.

Reciprocal tariffs, if implemented, would involve matching the tariff rates of other countries on US exports, potentially triggering retaliatory measures from affected nations. The timing of these potential announcements—possibly today or Wednesday—has kept markets on edge, as investors weigh the risks of a broader trade conflict.

From a market perspective, the immediate reaction to the tariff news has been varied. US equity indices, as measured by the MSCI US Index, rose by 0.7 per cent on Monday, with strong performances in the energy sector (+2.2 per cent) and information technology (+1.5 per cent). This resilience suggests that, for now, investors are focusing on the positive fundamentals of American companies rather than the potential negative impacts of tariffs.

The US earnings season has been particularly strong, with many companies surpassing expectations despite what analysts had considered a high bar. This strength in corporate fundamentals has provided a buffer against the macro uncertainties, supporting risk sentiment in the short term.

However, the longer-term implications of tariffs cannot be ignored. Tariffs on steel and aluminium could increase input costs for industries such as manufacturing, construction, and automotive, potentially squeezing profit margins and stoking inflation. If reciprocal tariffs are introduced, US exporters could face higher costs in foreign markets, further complicating the economic outlook.

Turning to the bond market, US Treasury yields ended Monday’s session with mixed results. Shorter-term yields, such as the two year and seven year, edged lower, reflecting some caution among investors about the near-term economic impact of tariffs.

Conversely, longer-term yields, including the 10-year (+0.2 basis points to 4.497 per cent) and 30-year (+1.4 basis points to 4.707 per cent), inched higher, suggesting that investors expect inflationary pressures from tariffs to persist over the longer term. This divergence in yield movements highlights the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Tariffs, by increasing costs and potentially delaying rate cuts, could complicate the Fed’s efforts to balance inflation and growth.

The US Dollar Index, meanwhile, rose by 0.3 per cent, reflecting safe-haven demand amid the tariff-related uncertainty. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, surged by 1.7 per cent to a fresh record high, underscoring investor concerns about geopolitical and economic risks. In the energy market, Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.6 per cent, supported by signs of a tighter market and geopolitical tensions, including Russia’s failure to meet its OPEC+ quota and rising natural gas prices in Europe.

Asian markets and crypto regulations

In Asia, the HSCEI index rose by 2.1 per cent for the third consecutive day, driven by optimism surrounding DeepSeek’s AI model and a perception that tariff tensions might be less severe than feared. However, early trading sessions on Tuesday showed mixed results for Asian equity indices, with US equity futures pointing to a lower open. This divergence highlights the uneven impact of tariff-related developments across regions.

While US markets have been buoyed by strong earnings, Asian markets remain more exposed to trade risks, given their reliance on exports. The resilience of risk sentiment in Asia, particularly in China, can also be attributed to positive developments in the AI sector, with companies like DeepSeek demonstrating resilience despite trade tensions. However, the broader implications of tariffs on global supply chains and economic growth remain a concern, particularly for export-dependent economies.

Shifting focus to other global developments, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is considering a significant regulatory change that could reclassify cryptocurrencies as securities. This potential shift, which could take effect by 2026, would have far-reaching implications for retail investors and the broader financial ecosystem. By classifying crypto as securities, Japan aims to strengthen investor protections, lower taxes on crypto investments, and enable domestic funds to invest in tokens.

This move could also pave the way for the approval of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including spot Bitcoin ETFs, which would attract institutional capital and boost market liquidity. Posts on X have highlighted the FSA’s plans, with some users speculating on the potential for tax cuts and ETF approvals.

However, these reports remain inconclusive, and the FSA’s final decision will depend on a comprehensive review of existing regulations. If implemented, this reclassification could position Japan as a leader in the global crypto market, potentially offsetting some of the negative sentiment surrounding tariffs.

Another notable development in the crypto space is the recent acquisition by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) of 7,633 Bitcoin for US$742 million between February 3 and February 9, at an average price of US$97,255 per Bitcoin. The firm now holds 478,740 Bitcoin, worth over US$46 billion, with an average purchase price of US$65,033 per Bitcoin.

This acquisition, representing 2.2 per cent of Bitcoin’s total supply, underscores the growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies as a store of value and hedge against inflation. Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin strategy has been closely watched by investors, with some viewing it as a bullish signal for the crypto market.

However, the timing of this acquisition, amid tariff-related uncertainty and rising gold prices, raises questions about the firm’s risk management approach. While Bitcoin has historically been seen as a safe-haven asset, its volatility and correlation with risk assets like equities could complicate its role in a tariff-driven market environment.

Balancing risk and optimism

From my perspective, the current global risk sentiment is a delicate balance between optimism and caution. On one hand, the strength of US corporate earnings and positive developments in sectors like AI and crypto provide a foundation for resilience. The MSCI US Index’s gains, driven by energy and tech, reflect confidence in the underlying fundamentals of the economy.

Similarly, Japan’s potential reclassification of crypto and Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition signal growing institutional acceptance of digital assets, which could support risk sentiment in the longer term. On the other hand, the tariff announcement and the threat of reciprocal tariffs introduce significant uncertainty.

Tariffs, by increasing costs and disrupting supply chains, could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth. The mixed performance of US Treasury yields, the surge in gold prices, and the rise in Brent crude oil all point to heightened concerns about the macroeconomic outlook.

In my view, the key question for markets is whether the positive microeconomic factors—such as strong earnings and innovation in AI and crypto—can continue to offset the negative macroeconomic risks posed by tariffs. While US markets have shown resilience so far, the potential for retaliatory measures from trading partners like China, Mexico, and Canada could escalate tensions and disrupt global trade.

For Asia, the optimism surrounding DeepSeek’s AI model and less severe tariff fears may provide temporary relief, but the region’s exposure to trade risks remains a concern. Japan’s potential crypto reclassification, if implemented, could be a game-changer, attracting capital and boosting sentiment. However, the success of this move will depend on the FSA’s ability to balance investor protections with market growth. Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition, while bullish for crypto, also highlights the challenges of navigating a volatile market environment.

In conclusion, the global risk sentiment is supported by a combination of strong corporate fundamentals and positive developments in AI and crypto, but it remains vulnerable to tariff-related uncertainties. President Trump’s tariff announcement, under Section 232, has introduced significant risks, with the potential for reciprocal tariffs adding to the complexity. While US markets have been buoyed by earnings, the longer-term implications of tariffs on inflation, growth, and trade dynamics cannot be ignored.

In Asia, optimism surrounding AI and crypto provides a counterbalance, but the region’s exposure to trade risks remains a concern. Japan’s potential crypto reclassification and Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition are positive signals, but their impact will depend on broader market conditions. As markets navigate this busy macro news backdrop, the interplay between microeconomic resilience and macroeconomic risks will shape the trajectory of global risk sentiment in the coming weeks and months.

Source: https://e27.co/global-risk-sentiment-holds-steady-amid-tariffs-ai-optimism-and-crypto-shifts-20250211/