Tag Archives: Japan

The US$71000 Bitcoin bounce lacks foundation but Japan’s rally has real teeth

The US$71000 Bitcoin bounce lacks foundation but Japan’s rally has real teeth

Asian markets delivered a powerful statement of confidence on Monday, February 9, 2026, as investors embraced a wave of fiscal optimism sweeping across the region. Japan led the charge with extraordinary force as the Nikkei 225 surged more than 2700 points in a single session to reach an intraday historic peak of 57337.07. This remarkable advance followed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory, which immediately reshaped market expectations toward aggressive fiscal stimulus and potential tax cuts.

The political mandate translated directly into investor enthusiasm, particularly for technology and financial shares, which absorbed most of the buying interest. This Japanese momentum proved contagious, creating a positive feedback loop that lifted markets from Shanghai to Sydney as regional investors recalibrated their outlook toward growth rather than caution.

China participated meaningfully in this regional uplift, with the Shanghai Composite climbing 1.25 per cent to approach the 4100 level. The advance carried particular significance because it coincided with the release of consumer price index data showing inflation at 0.8 per cent year over year. This reading suggested a subtle but important shift away from the deflationary pressures that had constrained Chinese markets for an extended period.

Investors interpreted the data as evidence that Beijing’s economic stabilisation efforts might finally be gaining traction, providing a foundation for cautious optimism even amid ongoing structural challenges. The modest inflation print provided a psychological pivot point, allowing market participants to envision a scenario in which domestic demand could gradually reawaken, supporting corporate earnings and asset values across the Chinese equity landscape.

Australia completed the regional trifecta with the S&P ASX 200 closing substantially higher at 8875.10. This performance proved especially notable given that the Reserve Bank of Australia had recently raised interest rates to 3.85 per cent, a move that typically pressures equity valuations. The market demonstrated resilience, absorbing the hawkish monetary policy signal while focusing instead on the broader global risk environment emanating from Tokyo and reinforced by developments in other major economies.

Australian financial and resources stocks benefited from synchronised regional strength, while the currency remained stable against the yen and the dollar, suggesting investors viewed the rally as sustainable rather than speculative. This ability to rally despite tighter monetary conditions underscored the depth of the sentiment shift across Asia-Pacific markets.

The positive sentiment extended beyond Asia as global markets positioned for continued strength. Wall Street futures indicated a constructive open with Dow Jones futures climbing more than 100 points following the index’s historic first-ever close above 50000 on the previous Friday. European markets exhibited cautious optimism, with the STOXX 600 hovering near the 600-point record, reflecting a synchronised global risk appetite.

Commodities participated vigorously in this broad advance as gold breached the symbolic US$5,000 threshold, reaching a weekly high of US$5,037 per ounce before consolidating around US$5,022. Crude oil stabilised as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased, removing a persistent risk premium from energy markets. This synchronised global move suggested investors were pricing in a coordinated economic expansion rather than isolated regional strength.

Amid broader environmental risks, the cryptocurrency market recorded a modest but telling advance, rising 0.86 per cent to reach a total valuation of US$2.39 trillion over 24 hours. The move carried distinctive characteristics that revealed crypto’s evolving relationship with traditional markets. Most significantly, the sector demonstrated a 94 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 over the past week, underscoring how digital assets have become tightly integrated into macro-driven market movements rather than operating as an independent asset class.

The primary catalyst for the bounce came from an unverified claim by CNBC’s Jim Cramer, who suggested President Trump would establish a United States Bitcoin reserve, with purchases made at the US$60,000 level. Though entirely speculative, this narrative generated immediate buying pressure, lifting Bitcoin above US$71,000 and pulling the broader market upward in its wake.

Beneath this rumour-driven surface, the rally found genuine technical support. The market had entered deeply oversold territory, with a seven-day relative strength index of just 27, creating fertile conditions for a corrective bounce. Simultaneously, on-chain data revealed substantial accumulation activity, as a whale withdrew 3,500 Bitcoin, equivalent to US$249 million, from the Binance exchange. This combination of extreme oversold conditions and significant institutional-scale buying provided a foundation that extended beyond mere speculation, suggesting some sophisticated participants viewed current levels as attractive entry points despite the absence of fundamental catalysts.

The near-term outlook for both traditional and digital markets now hinges on confirmation of catalysts. For Asian equities, the sustainability of the rally depends on whether Prime Minister Takaichi’s administration moves swiftly to implement concrete fiscal measures that validate current optimism.

For cryptocurrencies, the entire advance remains precariously balanced on an unverified political rumour, making the move inherently fragile. Bitcoin must hold above US$71,000 to maintain bullish momentum, with a break above US$75,000 potentially extending gains toward the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level corresponding to a US$2.4 trillion total market capitalisation. Conversely, a rejection below US$68,000 would invalidate the bounce, signalling a return to distribution patterns.

My perspective on this market environment recognises two distinct but parallel narratives. Asia’s rally stems from tangible political developments with clear policy implications, creating a foundation for sustained strength if follow-through occurs. The cryptocurrency advance, however, represents pure sentiment speculation lacking institutional or regulatory anchors. This divergence matters profoundly because policy-driven rallies typically exhibit greater durability than rumour-driven spikes.

Yet the exceptionally high correlation between crypto and equities reveals an uncomfortable truth for digital asset investors: their fortunes remain tethered to broader macro sentiment rather than blockchain-specific developments. The market has not achieved true independence; instead, it functions as a high-beta extension of risk assets.

The critical question facing investors now centres on resilience. Will Asian markets maintain their advance when fiscal details emerge, potentially revealing implementation challenges or budget constraints? Will cryptocurrency markets hold their gains if the Bitcoin reserve rumour is officially denied by the White House or the Treasury Department?

The answer likely depends on whether underlying macroeconomic conditions continue to support risk assets generally. With inflation showing signs of stabilisation in China, global growth indicators improving, and geopolitical risks receding temporarily, the environment remains conducive to risk-taking. Investors must recognise that Japan’s policy-driven rally possesses fundamentally stronger underpinnings than crypto’s rumour-fuelled bounce. One represents anticipation of real economic stimulus, the other reflects speculative positioning on unverified political theatre.

Both may rise together in a risk on environment, but their paths will inevitably diverge when market conditions test their respective foundations. The coming days will reveal whether this surge marks the beginning of a sustained expansion or merely a temporary reprieve within a more complex market cycle.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-us71000-bitcoin-bounce-lacks-foundation-but-japans-rally-has-real-teeth-20260209/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

US-Japan ties strengthen markets, crypto rides the wave

US-Japan ties strengthen markets, crypto rides the wave

The US-Japan trade deal stands out as a major driver, signalling stronger economic ties between two of the world’s largest economies. Over the weekend, the US and the European Union also finalised a trade agreement, albeit one that introduces 15 per cent tariffs on European exports to the US.

Despite the tariffs, the resolution of this deal has been broadly welcomed as a step toward easing trade tensions, fostering a risk-on environment where investors feel emboldened to dive into equities and step back from safe-haven assets like gold.

I see a complex but largely encouraging picture emerging, though one that’s not without its potential pitfalls. Let’s talk about it.

Trade deals fuelling optimism

The US-Japan trade agreement has injected a dose of positivity into global markets. By reducing uncertainties and paving the way for increased trade, this deal promises to strengthen economic activity between these two powerhouses.

Japan, a major player in manufacturing and technology, stands to benefit from easier access to US markets, while American firms could see new opportunities in Japan. This development aligns with a broader narrative of thawing trade relations, which had been strained in recent years by tit-for-tat tariffs and geopolitical friction.

Meanwhile, the US-EU trade deal adds another layer to the story. The inclusion of 15 per cent tariffs on European exports might seem like a wrinkle, but the fact that negotiators reached an agreement at all has outweighed that concern for many investors. After months of saber-rattling and fears of an all-out trade war, this deal offers a measure of stability. It suggests that both sides prefer cooperation over confrontation, even if the terms aren’t perfect.

This resolution reflects a pragmatic approach by the Trump administration, avoiding the escalation that markets had braced for. The tariffs will undoubtedly raise costs for some European exporters, but the clarity provided by the deal could encourage businesses to adapt and invest with greater confidence.

US markets riding the wave

The US stock markets have wasted no time capitalising on this upbeat mood. The S&P 500 climbed 0.40 per cent to notch a fresh record high, while the Nasdaq followed suit with a 0.24 per cent gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also joined the rally, posting a 0.47 per cent increase.

These gains underscore the strength of the US corporate sector, which has delivered a solid earnings season so far. Companies across industries have reported resilient profits, defying earlier worries about slowing growth. For investors, this combination of strong fundamentals and positive trade news has been a green light to push equities higher.

The VIX, often dubbed Wall Street’s fear gauge, offers another clue to the prevailing sentiment. It slipped from 15.39 to 14.93, a modest but meaningful drop that signals reduced anxiety about market volatility.

Historically, a VIX below 20 indicates a relatively calm market, and this easing aligns with the risk-on vibe. This decline reflects a collective sigh of relief among traders, who see fewer immediate threats on the horizon. However, it’s worth noting that the VIX remains above its long-term average, suggesting that some underlying caution persists.

Bond yields and the dollar tell a mixed story

In contrast to the stock market’s exuberance, US Treasury yields have painted a more complicated picture. The 10-year yield edged down by 0.8 basis points to 4.388 per cent, while the two-year yield ticked up by 0.7 basis points to 3.923 per cent. This divergence hints at differing expectations for the short and long term.

The dip in the 10-year yield suggests that investors anticipate stable or even lower interest rates over the longer haul, perhaps due to confidence in the Federal Reserve’s ability to keep inflation in check. Conversely, the slight rise in the 2-year yield could reflect near-term uncertainty, possibly tied to upcoming economic data or speculation about rate hikes.

The US Dollar Index, up 0.28 per cent, has also benefited from this environment. A stronger dollar often accompanies positive sentiment about the US economy, and the trade deals have reinforced that narrative.

Meanwhile, gold took a hit, dropping 0.93 per cent as investors shed safe-haven assets in favour of riskier bets. Brent crude oil also slipped 1.1 per cent to US$68 per barrel, which might signal concerns about global demand despite the trade optimism.

Asian markets and crypto add context

Across the Pacific, Asian equities have shown a more cautious response. Last week, many markets closed lower as investors eyed this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the approaching US trade tariff deadline.

Today’s early trading saw a mixed start, contrasting with US equity index futures, which point to a higher open stateside. This regional divergence suggests that while the US enjoys a tailwind, Asia remains wary of unresolved trade issues and their local economic implications.

The cryptocurrency market, however, has mirrored the broader risk-on sentiment with its flair. Bitcoin, hovering near US$119,000, shrugged off a massive sale by Galaxy Digital, which unloaded 80,000 BTC worth over US$9 billion for a Satoshi-era investor.

Prices dipped briefly from $118,000 to $115,000 before bouncing back by Sunday. Analysts point to this resilience as evidence of Bitcoin’s maturation into a liquid, robust market. It’s a testament to how far the crypto industry has come since its volatile early days.

Ethereum, meanwhile, has stolen the spotlight. It’s spot ETFs raked in US$1.85 billion in net inflows for the week ending July 25, 2025, dwarfing Bitcoin ETFs’ US$72.06 million. Over the past three weeks, Ethereum ETFs have amassed US$4.94 billion, bringing their total net assets to US$20.66 billion.

This surge ties into what some refer to as the Utility Season narrative, where investors are drawn to Ethereum’s versatility in decentralised finance, NFTs, and beyond. Bitcoin’s store-of-value appeal remains strong, but Ethereum’s growth hints at a shift toward assets with broader functionality. I see this as a fascinating evolution in how investors weigh risk and reward.

What’s next?

From my perspective, the global risk sentiment feels like a tightrope walk. The trade deals and US earnings have laid a solid foundation, but the mixed signals from bonds, Asia, and commodities remind us that confidence is fragile.

The crypto market’s strength, particularly Ethereum’s rise, adds an intriguing dimension, suggesting that risk appetite extends beyond traditional assets.

Looking ahead, this week promises a deluge of data that could either solidify or shake this optimism. The US second-quarter GDP report, the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and the July jobs report will provide a clearer view of the economy’s health.

Monetary policy decisions from the US, Canada, and Japan will also loom large, as central banks grapple with growth and inflation. The August 1 reciprocal tariff deadline adds another wildcard; any misstep could dent the current mood.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/us-japan-ties-strengthen-markets-crypto-rides-the-wave-20250728/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

US-Japan deal, EU talks, and Japan’s Bitcoin bet: A new chapter for global finance

US-Japan deal, EU talks, and Japan’s Bitcoin bet: A new chapter for global finance

The global economy is buzzing with some pretty exciting developments. I will explore what’s happening with the US-Japan trade agreement, the whispers of a US-EU deal, the possibility of a Bank of Japan rate hike, and even a Japanese company’s bold leap into Bitcoin.

I’ll break it all down for you in a way that’s easy to follow, and throw in some of my thoughts.

The US-Japan trade deal: Easing tensions, boosting confidence

First up, let’s talk about the US-Japan trade deal that’s been making headlines. This agreement is a big deal, literally and figuratively. The US has agreed to slash its planned tariffs on Japanese goods from a steep 25 per cent down to a more reasonable 15 per cent, and that includes autos, which are a massive part of Japan’s export economy.

Imagine you’re a Japanese automaker – Toyota, Honda, Nissan, take your pick. This news is like a breath of fresh air. Lower tariffs mean your cars can roll into the US market more competitively, potentially boosting sales and giving your bottom line a nice lift.

For the US, this deal isn’t just about letting more Japanese cars in. It’s likely tied to some reciprocal benefits, like Japan agreeing to buy more American goods or invest in US projects. Think of it as a two-way street: Japan gets better market access, and the US might see more jobs or economic activity as a result. What I love about this is how it shows that diplomacy can still work in a world that’s often felt like a trade-war standoff. After years of tariff threats and uncertainty, this feels like a step toward stability.

Now, here’s where it gets really interesting. The easing of these trade tensions has markets buzzing about what the Bank of Japan might do next. For ages, Japan’s central bank has kept interest rates at rock bottom – we’re talking zero or near-zero levels – to jumpstart its economy.

But with trade pressures easing, there’s talk of a possible rate hike in 2025. That’s a huge shift! A rate hike would signal that Japan’s economy is finally finding its footing, which could strengthen the yen. On the flip side, it might make life trickier for Japanese exporters if their goods get pricier abroad. It’s a bold move if it happens, and I’m rooting for Japan to pull it off without rocking the boat too much.

US-EU tariff talks: Could this be round two?

While the US-Japan deal is grabbing the spotlight, there’s another story brewing across the Atlantic. Reports are swirling that the US might be closing in on a similar 15 per cent tariff agreement with the European Union. Picture this as a sequel to the Japan deal – same vibe, different players.

If it goes through, it’d mean lower tariffs on European goods coming into the US, possibly paired with European investment flowing back the other way. The Euro Stoxx 50, a key European stock index, jumped 1.0 per cent on the news, indicating that investors are already getting excited about the possibilities.

If the US can strike deals with both Japan and the EU, it’s like hitting the trifecta of trade diplomacy. Less tension with major partners could mean smoother sailing for global trade, which has been choppy lately. I think this could be a game-changer, not just for the economies involved but for the whole world.

Fewer trade barriers often lead to more growth, and who doesn’t want that? The catch is, we’re still waiting to see if this deal sticks – the August 1 deadline for reciprocal tariffs is looming, so the clock’s ticking.

Markets are loving it: A global rally unfolds

Okay, let’s check in on how the markets are reacting, because they’re not sitting still. In the US, stocks surged after the trade news broke. The S&P 500 climbed 0.78 per cent to a record 6,309.62, the Dow Jones surged 1.14 per cent, and even the tech-heavy NASDAQ edged up 0.61 per cent to 20,892.69, despite a slight dip later. That’s a solid rally, showing investors are feeling good about where things are headed.

It’s not just a US party, though. Over in Asia, the MSCI Asia ex Japan index shot up 1.4 per cent, and the HSCEI, which tracks Chinese stocks in Hong Kong, hit its highest close since October 2021. That’s a big deal – it’s like the optimism is contagious, spreading across borders and lifting spirits everywhere. I see this as a sign that when big economies play nice, everyone benefits. Today’s early trading in Asia was a bit mixed, and US futures hint at a choppy open, but the overall vibe is… Pretty upbeat.

Then there’s the bond market. US Treasury yields ticked up, with the 10-year yield rising five basis points to 4.38 per cent and the two-year yield hitting 3.88 per cent. Higher yields typically indicate that investors expect stronger growth or perhaps a bit more inflation in the future.

To me, this ties back to the trade deals – less uncertainty could mean a healthier economy, and that’s pushing yields up as people ditch safe bets for riskier plays. The US Dollar Index dipped 0.18 per cent, and gold slid 1.3 per cent, which backs that up. When safe-haven demand softens, it’s a clue that folks are feeling bolder.

Crypto’s wild ride: Greed, gains, and a breather

Now, let’s switch gears to the crypto market, because it’s been a wild ride over there too. Bitcoin and altcoins, such as Ethereum and XRP, have been on a tear lately, racking up massive gains over the past few weeks. It’s the kind of run that gets crypto fans hyped – and honestly, I get it.

Something is thrilling about watching digital assets soar. But today, the charts are showing a sea of red candles for most of the top 100 coins by market cap. After testing some significant resistance levels, it appears that the bulls are taking a breather.

Don’t let that fool you into thinking the party’s over, though. The Fear & Greed Index, which measures crypto sentiment, is sitting at 70 – firmly in greed territory and the highest since July 12. That suggests to me that this pullback might simply be profit-taking after an explosive stretch, rather than a full-on reversal.

I’ve seen this before in crypto: big runs often hit a pause before the next leg up. So, while the traditional markets are riding trade-deal optimism, crypto’s doing its own thing – cooling off but still brimming with bullish energy.

Kitabo’s Bitcoin bet: A Japanese twist

Speaking of crypto, here’s a curveball from Japan that caught my eye. Kitabo Co., Ltd, a company that makes synthetic fiber spun yarns and trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, just announced it’s jumping into Bitcoin.

They’re planning to buy ¥800 million – that’s about US$5.4 million – worth of BTC using dollar-cost averaging, where you spread out purchases over time to smooth out price swings. This isn’t just a random punt; Kitabo’s been bleeding cash, losing ¥115.6 million (US$785,000) in fiscal 2024, and they’re hoping Bitcoin can help turn things around.

I find this fascinating. Kitabo’s joining a growing club of Asian companies using Bitcoin as a treasury asset – think of it as a hedge against a weakening yen or a way to diversify when traditional options aren’t cutting it. They’re even calling this their full-scale entry into crypto and real-world asset businesses, which sounds ambitious for a yarn maker!

My take is that it’s a smart, if gutsy, move. Dollar-cost averaging reduces the risk of buying at a peak, and if Bitcoin continues to climb, it could be a lifeline for a struggling firm. Additionally, it’s another indication that crypto’s going mainstream, even in unexpected areas.

What do you think? Excited for what’s next? I know I am!

 

Source: https://e27.co/us-japan-deal-eu-talks-and-japans-bitcoin-bet-a-new-chapter-for-global-finance-20250724/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j