February 12th, 2026

Crypto market cap drops to US$2.3T as Fed rate cut hopes fade after hot jobs report

Cryptocurrency assets bore the brunt of a liquidity reassessment triggered by robust American employment data. While Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged past the historic 58,000 threshold amid domestic political momentum and the broader Asia Pacific index touched a record high, digital asset markets retreated two per cent to a US$2.3 trillion valuation.

This divergence underscores a fundamental reality I have observed throughout market cycles. When the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory shifts, risk assets with the highest duration sensitivity are affected first and most severely. Cryptocurrencies continue to trade as premium risk instruments tethered to global liquidity conditions despite persistent narratives of independence.

The catalyst came from January’s US nonfarm payrolls report, which reported 130,000 new jobs, nearly double economists’ median forecast. This figure alone recalibrated market pricing for Federal Reserve action, pushing anticipated rate cuts from June into July 2026. Traditional equity markets reacted with restraint, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closing nearly flat. Crypto markets exhibited a 68 per cent correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index and absorbed the shock with characteristic volatility. This statistical linkage confirms what seasoned observers recognise.

Digital assets function less as an inflation hedge and more as a leveraged bet on expansive monetary policy. When the prospect of cheaper capital recedes, speculative positioning unwinds rapidly. The two per cent decline in market cap represents not a fundamental rejection of blockchain technology but a mechanical repricing of future cash flows under tighter financial conditions.

Compounding this macro-driven pressure, derivatives markets amplified the downturn through forced liquidations. Bitcoin alone saw US$188 million in long-position liquidations in 24 hours, a 130 per cent surge that transformed a measured pullback into a sharp correction. These cascading liquidations reveal the fragility embedded in leveraged crypto trading ecosystems.

When price momentum reverses, algorithmic liquidation engines accelerate selling pressure beyond organic market depth, creating self-reinforcing downward spirals. This dynamic operates independently of underlying project fundamentals, punishing even robust protocols alongside speculative ventures. The phenomenon reflects a structural vulnerability in digital asset markets that persists despite a decade of maturation. Excessive leverage remains the accelerant that turns policy shifts into panic.

Sentiment metrics further illustrate the psychological dimension of this retreat. The market-wide fear and greed index plunged to eight, registering extreme fear across participant cohorts. Such readings typically emerge during capitulation phases when retail investors abandon positions after sustained losses. Historically, these moments often coincide with short-term bottoms and also signal prolonged recovery periods ahead. Extreme fear does not reverse instantaneously. It requires sustained positive catalysts to rebuild confidence.

Currently, no such catalyst exists on the immediate horizon. Investors face a rising probability of a US government shutdown to 84 per cent ahead of the February 14 deadline, introducing fiscal uncertainty that compounds concerns about monetary tightening. This dual pressure on both fiscal and monetary fronts creates an unusually constrained environment for risk assets.

Technical structure now determines the near-term trajectory. The US$2.17 trillion market capitalisation represents this year’s low and serves as critical psychological and algorithmic support. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger additional liquidations targeting the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement near US$2.4 trillion.

Current positioning suggests markets may stabilise above the yearly low if macro conditions do not deteriorate further. Any sustained recovery requires reclaiming momentum toward the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci resistance at US$2.86 trillion. This level demands either a dovish pivot from central banks or significant organic capital inflows. Neither scenario appears imminent, given the Fed’s data-dependent stance and persistent institutional caution toward digital assets.

I view this correction as a necessary recalibration rather than a structural breakdown. Crypto markets have expanded dramatically since the previous cycle, attracting capital that entered during periods of abundant liquidity. As monetary conditions normalise, weaker hands exit, concentrating ownership among long-term holders with higher conviction.

This consolidation phase, though painful in the short term, often precedes more sustainable growth trajectories. The current market cap of US$2.3 trillion still reflects substantial institutional adoption compared to prior cycles, suggesting foundational demand remains intact despite tactical withdrawals.

Tomorrow’s US Consumer Price Index report looms as the next pivotal data point. Should inflation show unexpected moderation, markets might reprice rate cut expectations forward, providing temporary relief. I remain sceptical that one data release will override the Fed’s commitment to ensuring inflation remains anchored.

The central bank has consistently prioritised credibility over market comfort, and recent communications suggest officials welcome some financial tightening to reinforce their anti-inflation resolve. Crypto markets must therefore navigate an extended period of constrained liquidity rather than anticipating imminent policy relief.

The path forward demands discernment between cyclical pressure and secular decline. Digital assets face genuine headwinds from tighter monetary policy, but their underlying utility continues expanding across payments, identity, and programmable finance. The current two per cent drawdown represents a liquidity-driven adjustment within a maturing asset class, not a verdict on blockchain’s long-term viability. Investors who recognise this distinction will view periods of extreme fear not as exit signals but as opportunities to accumulate quality assets at discounted valuations.

Markets ultimately reward patience during liquidity droughts, though the duration of such periods remains unpredictable. For now, preservation of capital and selective positioning offer wiser strategies than either panic selling or aggressive leverage. The US$2.3 trillion market cap reflects a market in transition, shedding speculative excess while retaining its core value proposition for those willing to endure the volatility inherent in technological transformation.

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-market-cap-drops-to-us2-3t-as-fed-rate-cut-hopes-fade-after-hot-jobs-report-20260212/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

August 6th, 2025

The perfect storm: Jobs plunge, tariffs hit, and crypto volatility soars

Global risk sentiment has taken a noticeable hit recently, and it’s not hard to see why. A weaker-than-expected US ISM services PMI report for July, dropping to 50.1 from 50.8 in June, has raised eyebrows. Any reading below 50 signals contraction, and while 50.1 is just above that line, it’s a close call that suggests the services sector, a massive chunk of the US economy, is losing steam.

Firms are cutting jobs too, with the employment index plunging to 46.4, one of the lowest levels since the pandemic shook things up. This points to tepid demand and rising costs squeezing businesses, and it’s a red flag for anyone watching the broader economic picture.

Then there’s the trade situation, which feels like throwing fuel on an already flickering fire. President Trump has put out word that he’s gearing up to slap tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals, with the latter starting small but potentially ramping up to a jaw-dropping 250 per cent down the road.

He’s also planning to hike tariffs on Indian goods substantially, and he means to do it fast, within the next 24 hours. These moves could rattle global supply chains, jack up prices for everything from tech to medicine, and sour trade ties with a big player like India. Markets hate uncertainty, and this is a textbook case of it.

The US stock markets didn’t waste time reacting. The S&P 500 dropped 0.5 per cent, the Dow Jones edged down 0.1 per cent, and the Nasdaq took a 0.7 per cent hit. Investors are clearly jittery, pulling back from riskier bets as they digest the economic slowdown signals and the tariff threats. US Treasuries, meanwhile, had a mixed day after two sessions of gains.

The 10-year yield ticked up 1.8 basis points to 4.210 per cent, while the 30-year yield slipped 1.1 basis points to 4.780 per cent. That split tells a story of its own, hinting at confusion over where interest rates and inflation might head next, especially with talk of a Federal Reserve rate cut picking up steam.

Speaking of the Fed, the US Dollar Index, or DXY, is hanging out near recent lows, closing slightly down at 98.78 after last Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. A softer dollar could give US exports a boost, but it also means imports might get pricier, which could stoke inflation just when the economy looks shaky. Gold, always a go-to when things feel uncertain, climbed 0.2 per cent, riding the wave of that weaker dollar and bets on a Fed rate cut coming soon.

On the flip side, Brent crude took a 1.3 per cent dive to US$67 a barrel, thanks to news that the Kremlin might pause air strikes to dodge Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions. That’s a geopolitical chess move that could steady oil prices or shift the conversation with the US, depending on how it plays out.

While the US markets nursed their wounds, Asian stock markets caught a second wind on Tuesday. Investors over there are feeling optimistic, pricing in a 90 per cent chance of a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. That kind of monetary easing could pump some life into global growth, and Asian markets opened higher this morning, shrugging off the gloom stateside. US equity index futures suggest a mixed open back home, so it’s clear the world’s not moving in lockstep on this one.

The crypto angle: Bitcoin, altcoins, and market mood

Now, let’s zoom in on the cryptocurrency market, where things are just as messy but with a twist of their own. Bitcoin recently slid to US$112,000, and normally, you’d expect altcoins to perk up when the big dog stumbles, maybe even kick off an altcoin season. That hasn’t happened this time. Solana’s down 9.45 per cent over the past week, XRP’s off 5.48 per cent, and Dogecoin’s taken a 10.80 per cent beating. The altcoin crowd isn’t catching a bid, and that’s got people wondering what’s up.

Over the last 30 days, Bitcoin’s dominance, its share of the total crypto market cap, has slipped by nearly 5.5 per cent. Meanwhile, Ether’s been on a tear, jumping 40 per cent. You’d think that might mean traders are diving into riskier assets, but the broader altcoin slump tells a different story. It looks more like folks are cashing out Ether’s gains rather than piling into the next big thing.

The OTHERS index, which tracks altcoins outside the top 10 by market cap, crashed 18.7 per cent in just 10 days before bouncing back a bit. That’s a clear sign of investors running from the high-risk, high-reward corners of the market, mirroring the cautious vibe globally.

Bitcoin itself is holding the spotlight, though, and not without reason. Its price just retested a key weekly uptrend line, a level that’s sparked big moves before. Back in early 2023, it broke out of a downtrend after a similar retest and shot up over 95 per cent. In 2024, it did it again, climbing 171 per cent past US$73,000.

Now, in August 2025, it’s bounced off that same ascending support, and analysts are eyeing a short-term target of US$123,300, with a longer-term goal of US$150,000. There’s even talk of an inverse head and shoulders pattern on a 2-day chart, a bullish setup that could push Bitcoin to US$170,000 if it plays out. Volume’s backing the breakout, moving averages are turning up, and the neckline at US$110,000 is holding as support. That’s a 40-50 per cent upside from where we sit, which is no small potatoes.

Adding fuel to the fire, a whale has placed a massive leveraged long bet on Bitcoin, and parabolic chart projections are floating around, hinting at another wild ride. Big bets like that can juice the market, but they also bring volatility, and a wrong move could spark liquidations. Still, the technicals are lining up for a potential rally, and history suggests this trendline retest could be the start of something big.

Piecing it together: What’s driving all this?

So, what’s the bigger picture here? The global risk retreat ties straight back to the US economy, showing cracks. The services sector slowdown and job cuts signal weaker growth ahead, and Trump’s tariff plans are stirring the pot, threatening to disrupt trade and hike costs. Stock markets in the US are feeling the heat, while Asia’s betting on a Fed lifeline to keep things humming. Gold’s up, oil’s down, and the dollar’s soft, all classic moves when uncertainty reigns.

In crypto, the story’s a bit split. Altcoins are floundering, suggesting investors are playing it safe or pocketing gains rather than chasing the next moonshot. Bitcoin, though, looks poised for a breakout, backed by solid technicals and some heavy hitters betting big. It’s a tale of two markets, caution on one side, opportunity on the other.

My take: Risks and rewards in a shaky world

Here’s where I weigh in. The US data is worrisome, no doubt, and those tariffs could make a challenging situation worse, hitting consumers and businesses alike. But the Fed’s got room to step in, and if they cut rates, it could cushion the blow and give markets a lift, especially outside the US. Asia’s already banking on that, and they might be onto something.

Crypto’s trickier. Altcoins look stuck, and I wouldn’t hold my breath for a sudden rally there. Too many folks are sitting on the sidelines or cashing out. Bitcoin’s another story. The setup feels legit, and if it breaks out, US$150,000 or even US$170,000 isn’t crazy talk. That said, the macro risks, like a deeper US slowdown or a trade war flare-up, could derail it. Leverage in the mix makes me nervous, too. Volatility cuts both ways.

For anyone playing these markets, it’s about balance. Keep an eye on the Fed, watch how those tariffs land, and don’t sleep on Bitcoin’s next move. Diversifying’s smart, there’s too much up in the air to go all-in anywhere.

Source: https://e27.co/the-perfect-storm-jobs-plunge-tariffs-hit-and-crypto-volatility-soars-20250806/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

August 4th, 2025

When markets falter: US jobs, Russia, and Bitcoin’s moment to shine

Financial markets around the world have felt the ripple effects, with stock indices tumbling, Treasury yields dropping, and safe-haven assets like gold gaining ground. At the same time, Bitcoin has bucked the broader market trend, posting a modest gain amid a mix of institutional interest and technical factors.

As someone who closely follows economic and market developments, I find this confluence of events fascinating. It highlights how interconnected global markets are and how alternative assets like Bitcoin can sometimes move independently of traditional risk indicators.

A retreat in global risk sentiment

The retreat in global risk sentiment stems from two major catalysts: a weaker-than-expected US jobs report and escalating tensions between the US and Russia. The jobs report, released for July, showed non-farm payrolls growing by just 73,000, falling well short of the 104,000 that economists had anticipated.

To make matters worse, the previous two months’ figures underwent a sharp downward revision of 258,000 jobs. This kind of miss, combined with such a significant adjustment, sends a clear signal that the US labor market might be cooling faster than anyone expected. This isn’t just a statistical blip. It raises legitimate questions about whether the US economy, often seen as the backbone of global growth, could be heading toward a slowdown or even a recession.

Adding fuel to the fire, geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia have flared up again. The US recently slapped new sanctions on Russia, and Moscow responded with countermeasures. This back-and-forth has stoked fears of a broader conflict, one that could disrupt global trade and energy markets at a time when the world economy already feels fragile.

This is a classic case of uncertainty driving market behaviour. Investors hate unknowns, and right now, there’s a lot they can’t predict about how this standoff might play out.

The impact on financial markets has been immediate and pronounced. In the US, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6 per cent, the Dow Jones fell 1.2 per cent, and the NASDAQ took a steeper 2.2 per cent hit. Volatility spiked, with the VIX climbing above 20 for the first time in over a month. Over in Asia, stocks closed last Friday on a weak note, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index shedding 1.58 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI bore the brunt of the decline, plunging 3.88 per cent after the government announced plans to tighten capital gains taxes on stocks and hike transaction taxes. These moves reflect a broader flight from risk assets. Meanwhile, US Treasuries surged as investors piled into safe havens, pushing yields down across the board.

The two-year yield dropped 27.5 basis points to 3.682 per cent, and the 10-year yield fell 15.8 basis points to 4.216 per cent, its lowest in a month. The US Dollar Index slid 0.8 per cent, while gold jumped 2.2 per cent and Brent crude oil slipped 2.8 per cent on worries about weakening energy demand. This market reaction underscores how quickly sentiment can shift when economic and geopolitical risks collide.

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar is relatively quiet this week, with only a handful of data releases scheduled. Earnings reports from multinational corporations, pharmaceutical firms, and major insurers will take center stage instead.

In Asia, though, the data flow is heavier, with July inflation figures due from several countries and second-quarter GDP numbers coming out of Indonesia and the Philippines. These releases could offer more clues about whether the global economy is stabilizing or sliding further. I think the lack of major US data might give markets a breather, but any surprises from Asia could easily sway sentiment again.

The US jobs report: A closer look

Let’s dig into the US jobs report, because it’s the linchpin of this risk-off mood. The 73,000 increase in non-farm payrolls for July was a stark disappointment compared to the 104,000 that analysts had forecasted. The downward revision of 258,000 jobs for the prior two months only deepened the gloom.

I’ve seen weaker reports before, but this one stands out for how much it underperformed expectations and how it rewrote recent history with those revisions. Historically, sharp drops in job growth have often signaled trouble ahead.

Think back to the 2008 financial crisis, when non-farm payrolls tanked by over 500,000 in a single month. We’re not at that level yet, but the parallel isn’t lost on me. It’s a reminder that labor market weakness can be a leading indicator of bigger economic problems.

The fallout from this report has shifted expectations for Federal Reserve policy in a big way. Before the data hit, markets priced in 32 basis points of rate cuts over the remaining three FOMC meetings this year. Now, Fed-dated Overnight Index Swaps suggest a combined 60 basis points of easing. That’s nearly a full quarter-point cut per meeting, a clear sign that traders expect the Fed to act decisively to prop up the economy.

I find this pivot telling. It shows how sensitive markets are to labor data and how quickly they can recalibrate when the numbers disappoint. Lower Treasury yields, especially the steep drop in the two-year to 3.682 per cent, back up this view. Investors are betting on a more dovish Fed, and I’d argue they’re right to do so. If job growth keeps faltering, the Fed won’t have much choice but to ease aggressively.

The broader market reaction ties directly to this policy shift. Stocks fell hard because weaker jobs data dents confidence in corporate earnings and economic growth. Treasuries rallied as investors sought safety and anticipated lower rates. Gold’s 2.2 per cent jump reflects its appeal as a hedge against uncertainty, while the drop in Brent crude points to fears of a demand slowdown. For me, this all fits together logically.

A cooling labor market doesn’t just affect Wall Street; it ripples through consumer spending, energy use, and global trade. The question now is whether this is a temporary stumble or the start of something more serious. I lean toward caution here, given the size of those revisions and the geopolitical backdrop.

Bitcoin’s uptick: A bright spot amid the gloom

Against this stormy backdrop, Bitcoin has managed to shine, climbing 1.11 per cent in the past 24 hours. That might not sound like much, but in a market where stocks are tanking and volatility is spiking, it’s a standout performance. Several factors are driving this gain, and I think they highlight why Bitcoin often dances to its own tune.

First, institutional accumulation has played a big role. SharpLink Gaming’s US$108 million purchase of Ethereum signals strong corporate interest in crypto, and US ETF inflows of US$1.18 billion weekly suggest the trend extends to Bitcoin, even if specific BTC ETF data isn’t fresh here. Institutional investors have boosted their Bitcoin holdings by over 50 per cent in the past year, a stat that catches my eye. It shows how much the asset’s appeal has grown among heavy hitters who see it as a long-term store of value.

Second, selling pressure has eased. Miners, who dumped 3,000 BTC between July 16 and August 1, according to CryptoQuant, have since paused their sales. That’s a relief for the market, because miner outflows can weigh heavily on prices. With corporate and ETF buying stepping in to offset what selling did occur, Bitcoin has found some breathing room. I see this as a supply-demand dynamic at work—less selling plus steady buying equals upward pressure.

Third, regulatory developments have added a tailwind. The SEC’s approval of in-kind crypto ETPs has made it easier for institutions to get involved, boosting confidence. Hong Kong’s plan to launch tokenized bonds in 2025 is another positive signal, pointing to a future where digital assets play a bigger role in finance. I’m optimistic about these moves. They suggest regulators are warming up to crypto, which could unlock more capital inflows down the road.

From a technical angle, Bitcoin’s price action looks solid. The 14-day Relative Strength Index rose from 37.72, an oversold level, to 46.09 over seven days, indicating that bearish momentum is fading. The price also held firm at the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci level of US$117,135 after testing it on August 3, and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average at US$99,720 remains a strong long-term support.

To me, these levels matter. They show Bitcoin has a foundation to build on, even when broader markets wobble. The Fear & Greed Index ticking up from 48 to 52 in 24 hours reinforces this, despite US$164 million in long liquidations. It’s a sign that sentiment is shifting, and I’d argue it’s spot-driven demand—real buying, not just leverage—that’s keeping Bitcoin afloat.

My take and what’s next

Putting it all together, we’ve got a tale of two markets. On one hand, global risk sentiment is reeling from a dismal jobs report and US-Russia tensions. Stocks are down, yields are falling, and the Fed might need to step in with bigger rate cuts than anyone thought a week ago.

On the other hand, Bitcoin is holding its own, lifted by institutional interest, lighter selling, and regulatory progress. I find this contrast striking. It’s a reminder that traditional markets and crypto don’t always move in lockstep, especially when economic signals get murky.

As for what’s next, I’m keeping an eye on those upcoming data points: Asian inflation, GDP releases, and US earnings. They’ll either calm nerves or pour more fuel on the risk-off fire. For the US economy, I’m cautiously pessimistic.

The jobs report was a wake-up call, and while some argue the economy is still strong, those revisions and the Fed’s reaction tell me we’re not out of the woods. Bitcoin, though, has me more upbeat. Its resilience here suggests it’s carving out a niche as a hedge against uncertainty, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it keep climbing if institutional buying holds up.

Markets are jittery, but opportunities like Bitcoin show there’s still light amid the gloom. Investors will need to stay sharp, because the week ahead could bring more twists.

Source: https://e27.co/when-markets-falter-us-jobs-russia-and-bitcoins-moment-to-shine-20250804/