Markets on edge as jobs data, currency shifts, and crypto milestones shape the week

Markets on edge as jobs data, currency shifts, and crypto milestones shape the week

7 February 2025 marks a pivotal moment for global markets as investors grapple with a confluence of critical economic indicators, shifting currency dynamics, and transformative developments in the cryptocurrency space. Wall Street traders are on edge, awaiting the release of US non-farm payroll data that could illuminate the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates, while the Japanese yen surges to its highest level since early December, buoyed by hawkish comments from a Bank of Japan official.

Meanwhile, Amazon’s disappointing profit projections send ripples through after-hours trading, and the cryptocurrency market sees increased institutional engagement alongside significant regulatory milestones. As a journalist deeply attuned to the pulse of global finance, I believe this week underscores the intricate balance between risk and opportunity, with profound implications for investors, policymakers, and the broader economy.

Let’s begin with the US jobs data, which has become the focal point for Wall Street traders. The non-farm payroll report is more than just a snapshot of employment trends; it is a critical barometer for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. A weak print could reignite expectations for further interest rate cuts, providing a much-needed boost to risk assets and potentially alleviating some of the pressure on equity markets.

Conversely, a stronger-than-expected report might temper hopes for additional easing, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on inflation. The stakes are high, particularly as Wall Street also anticipates a revision to previous job growth figures—a development that could further complicate the Fed’s decision-making process.

The interplay between these data points highlights the fragility of the current economic recovery, with markets hanging on every decimal point. From my perspective, the Fed faces an unenviable task: balancing the need to support growth while guarding against inflationary pressures. A misstep here could have profound consequences, not just for the US economy but for global financial stability.

The new norm: Stabilising global risk sentiment in a volatile market

Beyond the jobs data, the broader US market landscape offers mixed signals. The MSCI US index edged higher by 0.4 per cent, with the Consumer Staples sector outperforming at 0.9 per cent. This resilience in defensive sectors suggests that investors are hedging their bets, seeking safety amid uncertainty.

At the same time, US Treasury yields ticked upward, with the 10-year yield rising by 1.6 basis points to 4.43 per cent and the 2-year yield climbing by 2.5 basis points to 4.21 per cent. These modest increases reflect a market grappling with the potential for higher interest rates, even as the US Dollar Index consolidated its recent losses with a slight 0.1 per cent uptick.

Gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset, saw its upward momentum persist, albeit with a slight 0.4 per cent pullback, as it continued its march toward the US$2,900 per ounce mark. These movements paint a picture of a market in flux, with investors seeking refuge in traditional safe havens while cautiously navigating the shifting sands of monetary policy.

On the global stage, the Japanese yen’s appreciation to its highest level since early December is a development worth noting. The currency’s gains were spurred by comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Naoki Tamura, who made a compelling case for higher interest rates. This hawkish stance contrasts sharply with the BOJ’s historically dovish policies, signaling a potential shift in Japan’s monetary strategy. The yen’s strength is a double-edged sword: while it bolsters the purchasing power of Japanese consumers and importers, it poses challenges for exporters and could dampen economic growth.

From my vantage point, Tamura’s comments are a bold move, reflecting the BOJ’s growing confidence in Japan’s economic recovery. However, the central bank must tread carefully, as premature rate hikes could undermine the fragile progress made in combating deflation. The yen’s appreciation also has broader implications for global currency markets, potentially influencing the relative strength of the US dollar and other major currencies.

Shifting gears to the commodity markets, Brent crude oil hovered just below US$75 per barrel, weighed down by concerns over President Trump’s proposed tariffs on China. These tariffs, if implemented, could reduce global crude demand, particularly from one of the world’s largest oil consumers. At the same time, Trump’s pledge to boost US oil output adds another layer of complexity, potentially offsetting the impact of sanctions on Iran. This delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics underscores the geopolitical risks embedded in the oil market.

As a journalist, I find it striking how political decisions in one corner of the world can ripple through global commodity markets, affecting everything from energy prices to inflation expectations. The mixed performance of Asian equities and the flat outlook for US equity index futures further highlight the uncertainty permeating global markets, as investors grapple with these intersecting forces.

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, this week brought several notable developments that reflect the sector’s growing maturity. JP Morgan’s latest eTrading survey revealed a significant uptick in institutional engagement with cryptocurrencies, with 13 per cent of the 4,200 surveyed institutional traders actively trading digital assets, up from nine per cent in 2024.

This increase aligns with the launch of US Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and the remarkable 120 per cent surge in Bitcoin prices over the course of the year. The contrast with 2023, a period marked by the fallout from the FTX collapse, is stark. The recovery and subsequent growth in 2024 underscore the resilience of the crypto market and its ability to attract institutional capital.

However, it’s worth noting that 71 per cent of surveyed traders still have no plans to trade cryptocurrencies, down from 78 per cent the previous year. This cautious stance suggests that while the crypto market is gaining traction, significant barriers to adoption remain, including regulatory uncertainty and concerns about volatility.

What startup should I start based on market trends in 2025?

The survey also highlighted the relative importance of various technologies, with artificial intelligence extending its dominance, followed by APIs. Blockchain, while still a distant third at six per cent (down from seven per cent last year), remains a critical technology for the crypto ecosystem. The decline in blockchain’s perceived importance is intriguing, particularly in light of the SEC’s recent launch of a Crypto Task Force website aimed at clarifying regulations for digital assets.

This initiative, which focuses on token classification and compliance, is a step in the right direction, providing much-needed guidance for market participants. Similarly, Franklin Templeton’s bid to launch a new crypto index ETF signals growing institutional interest in diversified crypto exposure. These developments are emblematic of the broader trend toward mainstream acceptance of digital assets, even as challenges persist.

In my view, the cryptocurrency market is at a pivotal moment. The increased institutional engagement and regulatory clarity are positive signs, but the sector must continue to address concerns about transparency, security, and systemic risk. The lessons of the FTX collapse and other high-profile failures must not be forgotten.

As the crypto ecosystem evolves, it will be crucial for regulators and industry players to work collaboratively to build a framework that fosters innovation while protecting investors. The golden age of crypto, as some have dubbed it, is within reach, but it will require careful navigation of the complex interplay between technology, regulation, and market dynamics.

To conclude, this week’s developments paint a picture of a global financial landscape marked by uncertainty and opportunity. From the anticipation surrounding US jobs data to the yen’s resurgence and the evolving dynamics in the cryptocurrency space, the forces shaping markets are multifaceted and interconnected.

As a journalist, I remain cautiously optimistic about the future, but I am mindful of the risks that lie ahead. The path forward will require vigilance, adaptability, and a commitment to balancing innovation with stability. The global economy stands at a critical juncture, and the decisions made in the coming months will reverberate for years to come.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-on-edge-as-jobs-data-currency-shifts-and-crypto-milestones-shape-the-week-20250207/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Can Play-to-Earn gaming replace traditional jobs?

Can Play-to-Earn gaming replace traditional jobs?

Web3, the latest iteration of the Internet, has radically changed the gaming business by integrating unique features involving blockchain, cryptos and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

The question that arises now is whether Play-to-Earn, or P2E, games can offer an alternative to traditional wage employment for people looking to move out of their jobs, whatever be the reason.

Gaming in the Web2 era was controlled by tech enterprises and involved players shelling out money to the developers. The advent of P2E gaming, completely decentralized, has put power in the hands of the players, who can tokenize in-game assets in the form of unique NFTs, a form of digital assets, for ownership rights.
According to a study by market researcher Absolute Reports, the global P2E NFT gaming market size was estimated to be worth $776.9 million in 2021, having received a fillip from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The market is forecast to reach a readjusted size of $2.8 billion by 2028, expanding at a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 20.4 percent during 2022-2028.

P2E cannot replace regular jobs

Ishank Gupta, advisor to IndiGG, the largest gaming DAO (decentralised autonomous organisation) in India, says P2E games can be a potential second source of income, but cannot replace earnings through traditional jobs.

Gupta believes that emerging markets like India will drive the Web3 gaming adoption.

When asked to elucidate, he said mobile data was most affordable in India with the average cost of 1GB of 4G data at Rs 20. The country is also a “mobile first” nation with over 700 million smartphones.

India is expected to be home to 500 million players by 2024, creating a sizable (mobile-first) market for game creators, he said, adding that app install statistics show 17% of all game downloads come from India.

“In the world of Web3, where everyone is still at the starting line, we may acquire a head start and become first movers in the business by taking steps to establish an indisputable community that interacts with Web3 games and goods. When it comes to gaming, India is regarded as an important market,” Gupta says.

Experts point out that the future of work is being redefined by new technologies, with blockchain —  a database that stores information in a digital format — being the most important development that happened in the past 10 years.

Back in 2021 in emerging economies, the first generation of games like Axie Infinity was able to replace ordinary jobs.

Driving a taxi or being a delivery driver made less money than a middle-level P2E Axie player.

However, the first generation of P2E has a lot of holes in terms of game depth, tokenomics, overall dynamics and aesthetics.

Corruption, inflation driving users toward Web3

Asked about the fascination with P2E games in emerging economies, Martin Repetto, CEO and co-founder of Mokens League, says rampant corruption, high inflation and depreciation of local currencies have created the perfect ecosystem for crypto to be the king.

“The combination of trying to escape high taxes with badly rendered services, inflation, and economic freedom, makes it perfect for Blockchain games and DApps (decentralised applications) to triumph. There is no coincidence that the most successful Play-To-Earn games came from emerging markets/economies/countries,” Repetto says.

P2E growth depends on per capita GDP

P2E is one of the ways to earn an additional income, but it may not work for all countries.

In Singapore, for example, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita reached a record high of US $66,176.39 in 2021. Even so, the cost of living is high and the P2E concept is harder to attract the 9-5 working class because it may not be able to pay even for their monthly groceries.

In Kenya, where GDP per capita is expected to reach US $1,550.00 by the end of 2022, P2E is viable.

In fact, in Kenya play-to-earn, when positioned well, can reduce the unemployment rate and increase overall GDP.

India will be the outsourcing factory for Web3

Anndy Lian, Chief Digital Advisor to the Mongolian Productivity Organization, says the revenue from Web2 gaming goes to the gaming companies, but Web3 gaming is better distributed.

“Users get rewarded for their efforts and their assets can be further monetized. NFTs are in-game assets, not in-game expenses, anymore because you can resell your NFTs in the secondary market; if you promote harder, you can command a higher price. The value of your assets is in your own hands,” he says.

He adds that India is very developed in Web2 and many users are transiting to Web3 and a big pool of developers will make India the biggest outsourcing factory for Web3.

Future of Web3 gaming

The platform’s development and level of user interaction will determine how well it does.

The platform will gradually attract additional developers, users, and practical outcomes as it goes through its motions.

Over time, the platform’s market valuation will increase as more users and developers join it.

P2E is an idea that is gradually gaining hold among gamers. However, it still has a long way to go before it can take the place of traditional jobs.

The platform doesn’t currently have the gamers and developers it needs to grow and succeed and will become more reliable and popular as it evolves further.

This will encourage other developers to produce their own games for the system, accelerating the growth of the metaverse crypto.

Saurabh Tiwari, a Pune-based Web3 enthusiast, and an avid gamer, told Moneycontrol that NFT-based games were previously a grey area, just like TikTok was initially.

“Playing games definitely can be a long-term career option if planned properly because the loyalty amounts, once a gamer creates his own community and followers, are huge.

Multinational companies are investing big in the space which only goes on to show they see huge potential here in the long run,” Tiwari said.

 

 

Source: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/can-play-to-earn-gaming-replace-traditional-jobs-9271761.html

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j