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Why Bitcoin fell from US$100k to mid US$60k amid macro uncertainty

Why Bitcoin fell from US$100k to mid US$60k amid macro uncertainty

Bitcoin faces a multi-day losing streak that analysts identify as the harshest reset since past major bear markets. The asset peaked above US$100,000 in October 2025 before falling roughly 50 per cent to the mid US$60,000s. A sharp flush to about US$60,000 on 5 February triggered heavy forced selling and extreme options demand for downside protection.

Volatility and derivatives stress levels are at levels last seen during the FTX era and the 2018-style resets. On-chain and valuation metrics have shifted into early bear-market territory. Sentiment sits near extreme fear, with the Fear & Greed Index at 6. This reading marks the second-lowest ever. Key support zones now focus around US$60,000 and roughly US$55,000. Investors watch ETF flows and whether on-chain composite indices recover or slide further toward full capitulation zones.

The streak reflects broad de-risking across spot, derivatives, and ETF flows after a very extended bull run. Analysts at K33 and Bitcoin Magazine describe capitulation-like conditions in volume, funding, and options skew as BTC approached US$60,000. Daily RSI sits near 16. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen around US$400 million in weekly net outflows.

A big drop in assets under management from a 2025 peak has removed an important source of incremental demand. This data suggests the market struggles to find buyers at current levels. The structure looks more like the early part of a bear phase than a brief correction. This implies longer, choppy sideways to down price action appears likely.

CryptoQuant’s Combined Market Index blends valuation, profitability, spending behaviour, and sentiment. This index dropped to around 0.2. Analysts linked this zone to the early stages of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets rather than a mid-cycle dip. A separate heatmap of 10 major on-chain metrics shows all key signals in the red band. These signals include trader profit margins and network activity. Conditions remain inconsistent with new highs in the short term.

Realised price tracks the average cost basis of all BTC. This metric currently stands at around US$55,000. Past cycle lows have often formed 24 to 30 per cent below it. This places a potential high-risk, high-reward zone around that area if history repeats. Analysts flag US$60,000 to US$62,000 as a critical support band. K33 work suggests consolidation between roughly US$60,000 and US$75,000 now forms the base case. Deeper downside awaits if US$60,000 fails.

Broader market context adds weight to this cautious outlook. Major US stock indices ended slightly higher on February 17, 2026. The session saw the S&P 500 swing between gains and losses as investors grappled with persistent fears regarding AI expenditures. The S&P 500 rose 0.1 per cent to close at 6,843.22. It found support near its 100-day moving average after an initial drop of nearly one per cent.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.14 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 32.26 points to settle at 49,533.19. Financials and real estate each rose approximately 1.1 per cent. In contrast, the energy sector fell 1.4 per cent, and consumer staples dropped 1.5 per cent. General Mills sank seven per cent after cutting its annual outlook. The technology-heavy Nasdaq faced pressure from a 2.2 per cent drop in software-focused ETFs.

Commodities signalled risk-off behaviour. Gold prices plummeted more than two per cent. Prices fell below US$5,000 to settle at around US$4,884 per ounce. Oil prices dropped roughly two per cent to a two-week low. Brent crude settled at US$67.42 and WTI at US$62.33. Reports of a new window of opportunity for a potential nuclear deal reduced safe-haven demand for gold. This also lowered the risk premium on oil. AI anxiety triggered a bout of volatile trading.

Scepticism about tech giants’ ability to monetise their high AI expenditures worried investors. Dip buyers helped indices recover by the close. Liquidity remained thin following the US Presidents’ Day holiday and ongoing Lunar New Year closures in China and Hong Kong. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up slightly to 4.06 per cent. The 2-year yield rose to 3.439 per cent.

My view synthesises these disjointed signals into a coherent narrative. The Bitcoin reset aligns with broader macro uncertainty. While stock indices closed slightly higher, the underlying volatility suggests fragility. The drop in gold alongside Bitcoin indicates a liquidation of safe havens rather than a rotation into risk. The US$400 million weekly ETF outflows confirm institutional hesitation. Investors need multiple consecutive days of strong inflows to reset the current bearish regime. The realised price near US$55,000 offers a logical floor, yet history suggests prices could dip 24 to 30 per cent below this level.

The BCMI at 0.2 reinforces the bear market comparison. Traders should focus less on picking an exact bottom. Focus remains on whether US$60,000 and the realised price hold. ETFs and on-chain signals must stabilise before optimism returns. The current environment demands patience as the market searches for a true bottom amidst economic crosscurrents.

AI scepticism in equities and crypto derivatives highlights shared sensitivity to liquidity conditions across asset classes. This parallel suggests that the crypto downturn is not isolated from traditional finance movements. Investors observe that doubts about technology expenditure in the stock market mirror the de-risking seen in Bitcoin derivatives.

Both markets react sharply to changes in yield expectations and risk appetite. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.06 per cent, adding pressure to valuation models for high-growth assets. Higher yields typically reduce the present value of future cash flows for tech firms and diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. This correlation strengthens the argument for a cautious approach until yields stabilise.

Nevertheless, the path forward involves navigating choppy sideways action until clear recovery signals emerge.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoin-fell-from-us100k-to-mid-us60k-amid-macro-uncertainty-20260218/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

From US$70K to freefall: Can Bitcoin hold the US$60K lifeline after US$1B liquidation event?

From US$70K to freefall: Can Bitcoin hold the US$60K lifeline after US$1B liquidation event?
The market landscape paints a stark picture of unravelling risk appetite, where optimism has given way to caution across nearly every asset class.
Equity markets led the retreat, with the Nasdaq falling 1.59 per cent, the S&P 500 down 1.23 per cent, and the Dow shedding 1.2 per cent. This was not merely a correction. It was a targeted unwinding of the very trades that had powered the post-2024 surge. Two members of the Magnificent 7 announced capital expenditure plans for AI infrastructure that far exceeded analyst projections, sparking fears that the much-touted AI profitability narrative may be overshadowed by unsustainable spending. Investors are beginning to question whether today’s AI investments will yield tomorrow’s returns or simply inflate balance sheets without corresponding earnings growth. The VIX’s 16.8 per cent jump to 21.77 confirms rising anxiety, signalling that volatility is no longer dormant but actively pricing in uncertainty.
This shift in sentiment spilt over into fixed income, where US Treasury yields fell sharply. Two-year yields dropped 10.3 basis points to 3.450 per cent, and the 10-year yield closed at 4.180 per cent, down 9.3 basis points, as traders sought safety amid equity turmoil. The move reflects growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will indeed pivot toward easing, especially as labour market data have become increasingly weak. Weekly jobless claims came in at 231,000, well above the expected 212,000, while December JOLTS data revealed job openings had slumped to 6.45 million, the lowest since 2020. These figures challenge the narrative of a resilient economy and bolster the case for rate cuts in the second and third quarters of 2026, as previously anticipated. The timing remains delicate, with Jerome Powell set to step down as Fed Chair in May, which will push markets into a period of heightened policy ambiguity.
Currency markets mirrored this flight to safety. The US dollar strengthened broadly, pushing the DXY up to 97.824, even as central banks elsewhere signalled a dovish stance. The Bank of England’s hold, interpreted as dovish, sent GBP/USD plunging 0.93 per cent to 1.3525, while the ECB’s decision left EUR/USD modestly lower at 1.1777. Despite the dollar’s short-term strength, the underlying trend still points toward depreciation later in the year, driven by expected Fed easing. Similarly, USD/JPY edged higher to 157.04, but sustained yen weakness appears increasingly untenable if U.S. rates begin their descent.
Commodities suffered one of the sharpest reversals. Gold plummeted 3.7 per cent to 4,779 dollars per ounce, and silver collapsed nearly 20 per cent to 71 dollars, an extraordinary move that suggests forced liquidations rather than a fundamental reassessment. Brent crude also retreated 2.7 per cent to 67 dollars per barrel after Iran confirmed nuclear negotiations with the US would resume on Friday, temporarily defusing fears of Middle East conflict. This calm may prove fleeting. Any breakdown in talks could reignite supply concerns and push oil back toward last June’s 80-dollar peak. Gold’s long-term thesis remains intact, but its near-term path is hostage to macro liquidity conditions and risk sentiment.
Nowhere was the fragility of speculative positioning more evident than in crypto. The total market cap plunged 8.71 per cent to 2.22 trillion dollars, driven by a brutal deleveraging event in Bitcoin. A break below 70,000 dollars triggered over 1.01 billion dollars in BTC liquidations within 24 hours, a 213 per cent surge, creating a self-reinforcing spiral of margin calls and panic selling. Ethereum fared even worse, dropping more than 15 per cent as large holders reportedly moved tokens to exchanges, likely to meet collateral requirements or exit underwater positions. Critically, crypto’s 92 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 confirms it is no longer operating as a separate asset class but as a high-beta extension of tech-driven risk sentiment.
From my point of view, this moment reveals a structural truth about the current market regime. Despite narratives of decentralisation and digital scarcity, crypto remains deeply embedded in the macro financial ecosystem. When liquidity tightens or risk aversion spikes, leverage gets flushed out indiscriminately, and crypto, with its thin order books and high open interest, becomes a lightning rod for volatility. The extreme fear reflected in the Fear & Greed Index, now at 5, suggests capitulation may be nearing completion, but recovery hinges on two variables: price action and geopolitics.
If Bitcoin holds the 60,000 to 62,500 dollar support zone, a technical bounce toward 70,000 dollars is plausible, especially if spot ETF inflows resume or US-Iran talks yield de-escalation. A decisive break below 60,000 dollars could trigger another leg down, potentially dragging the total market cap toward 2.4 trillion dollars. The key signal to watch is a daily close above 67,000 dollars, which would invalidate near-term bearish momentum and invite short-covering.
In conclusion, yesterday’s selloff was not just a correction. It was a stress test. It exposed over-leverage, over-optimism, and over-concentration in a handful of AI-linked equities and digital assets. The path forward depends less on narratives and more on hard labour trends, Fed communication, and geopolitical stability. Until those stabilise, markets will remain in a defensive crouch, waiting for either a catalyst for relief or confirmation of deeper economic cracks.

 

Source: https://e27.co/from-us70k-to-freefall-can-bitcoin-hold-the-us60k-lifeline-after-us1b-liquidation-event-20260206/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Gold hits US$5K and crypto bleeds: What comes next?

Gold hits US$5K and crypto bleeds: What comes next?

As global markets opened for trading on Monday, January 26, investors found themselves navigating a landscape shaped by escalating geopolitical friction, shifting monetary expectations, and a historic surge in gold prices that eclipsed the psychological US$5,000 per ounce threshold. The confluence of these forces has created a volatile yet revealing moment in financial history. This moment reflects not only immediate market reactions but also deeper structural anxieties about the stability of traditional financial systems, the role of safe-haven assets, and the fragile confidence underpinning both equities and digital assets.

Gold’s ascent to over US$5,000 an ounce marks more than just a new record. It signals a profound loss of faith in fiat stability and institutional safeguards. This rally did not emerge in isolation. It unfolded against a backdrop of weakening US dollar sentiment, driven by fears of Japanese intervention in currency markets and renewed speculation about potential US tariffs targeting Greenland. A move that, while seemingly niche, underscores the broader trend of economic nationalism and strategic resource competition. In such an environment, capital naturally seeks refuge.

Gold, with its millennia-long reputation as a store of value, becomes the default destination when trust in policy predictability erodes. The strength of gold-related equities in Hong Kong, which helped propel the Hang Seng Index to its fourth consecutive gain, further illustrates how this flight to safety is translating into real portfolio allocations across Asia.

Meanwhile, US stock futures pointed lower at the open, reflecting investor caution ahead of a critical earnings week. The tech sector, long the engine of market returns, now stands at a crossroads. Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple are all scheduled to report results, and their performance will likely dictate whether the Nasdaq can sustain its narrow 0.28 per cent gain from Friday, January 23, when it closed at 23,501.24. That modest advance stood in stark contrast to the broader market malaise. The S&P 500 barely held onto a 0.03 per cent rise to finish at 6,915.61, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 285.30 points, or 0.58 per cent, to 49,098.71, dragged down by a nearly 4 per cent drop in Goldman Sachs. These divergences suggest growing selectivity among investors, who are increasingly unwilling to reward broad market exposure without clear earnings justification, especially in a climate where macro risks loom large.

In Asia, policymakers are responding with strategic moves aimed at reinforcing regional financial autonomy. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s decision to double the size of its RMB Business Facility to RMB200 billion (US$28 billion) is a deliberate step toward deepening offshore renminbi liquidity and reducing reliance on the US dollar in trade and settlement. This aligns with China’s long-term goal of internationalising its currency, particularly as geopolitical tensions incentivise alternative financial architectures. Meanwhile, Singapore’s central bank is expected to hold its monetary policy steady, reflecting a more cautious stance in a region where inflation dynamics remain manageable but external shocks could quickly alter the calculus.

The cryptocurrency market, however, tells a different story, one of fragility and systemic vulnerability. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market cap fell by 1.9 per cent, extending a seven-day decline of 6.94 per cent. Despite retaining a modest 0.63 per cent gain for the month, the recent slide reveals how quickly sentiment can turn when trust is breached.

Two major security incidents acted as catalysts. In South Korea, prosecutors confirmed a phishing attack led to staggering losses of seized Bitcoin, while in the US, 40 million dollars worth of crypto was stolen from government-controlled addresses. These were not random hacks. They targeted institutions entrusted with custody of digital assets, raising urgent questions about the adequacy of current safeguards. When even state-held crypto proves vulnerable, retail and institutional participants alike reassess their exposure.

This erosion of confidence triggered a cascade of forced selling. In just 24 hours, 145 million dollars in Bitcoin long positions were liquidated, a staggering 4,829 per cent increase from baseline levels, with longs accounting for 98 per cent of all liquidations. Simultaneously, open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rose by 14 per cent, indicating that traders had piled into leveraged bets just before the downturn. The result was a classic deleveraging spiral.

As prices dipped below key technical supports, margin calls triggered automated sell-offs, which pushed prices lower, triggering more liquidations. Funding rates have turned slightly negative at minus 0.001 per cent, suggesting that short-term sentiment has shifted bearish, though not yet into panic territory. Still, the speed and scale of the unwind reveal how thin the line remains between orderly correction and disorderly collapse in highly leveraged crypto markets.

From my view, these developments underscore a pivotal tension in today’s financial ecosystem. There is a growing divergence between traditional safe-haven behaviour and the still-unproven resilience of digital alternatives. Gold’s record high reflects centuries of accumulated trust, while crypto’s sharp pullback exposes its continued dependence on speculative leverage and institutional credibility, both of which remain works in progress. The thefts from government-held wallets are particularly damning because they strike at the very premise that regulated custody can mitigate risk. If even federal agencies cannot secure digital assets, what hope do exchanges or self-custody solutions offer to the average investor?

Moreover, the timing could not be more consequential. With the US Senate set to discuss a new crypto bill this week, regulators now face immense pressure to respond, not just with rhetoric, but with concrete frameworks that address custody standards, transparency, and systemic risk. A reactive crackdown could deepen the selloff, while a measured, innovation-friendly approach might restore some confidence. But given the current mood, shaped by both geopolitical uncertainty and market fragility, any misstep could accelerate capital flight from digital assets toward time-tested stores of value.

Today may be remembered not just for gold’s historic milestone, but as a stress test for the entire architecture of modern finance. Traditional markets are grappling with slowing momentum and earnings uncertainty. Asian economies are quietly building parallel financial rails. The crypto sector is confronting its Achilles’ heel, the gap between technological promise and operational reality. For investors, the path forward demands discernment. Blind faith in either legacy systems or decentralised ideals is no longer tenable. Instead, survival and profit will belong to those who can navigate this hybrid landscape with eyes wide open, recognising that true resilience lies not in ideology, but in adaptability.

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-hits-us5k-and-crypto-bleeds-what-comes-next-20260126/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j