February 2nd, 2026

Risk assets retreat under macro pressure: Gold, crypto, and tech lead the decline

The global markets entered a state of cautious recalibration as risk sentiment softened amid a confluence of political, monetary, and liquidity-driven pressures. The catalyst for the shift was President Donald Trump’s nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee.

While the announcement aimed to reassure markets about the Fed’s institutional independence, it simultaneously stoked fears of a more hawkish policy trajectory than previously anticipated. This development coincided with a brief partial government shutdown over the weekend, though lawmakers are expected to swiftly pass a funding agreement once the House reconvenes. Against this backdrop, investors turned their attention toward Friday’s January employment report, which may offer critical clues about labour market fragility and, by extension, the timing of future rate cuts.

Equity markets reflected this growing unease. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37 per cent, the S&P 500 dropped 0.43 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 0.94 per cent, weighed down by profit-taking in leading technology names. The VIX index, a barometer of market volatility, climbed to 17.44, signalling rising investor anxiety.

With major tech earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, and Palantir on deck, the sector faces renewed scrutiny not just on fundamentals but on its sensitivity to macro conditions. The prevailing view remains that the US economic recovery is uneven, warranting a strategic pivot toward broader diversification through vehicles like the S&P Equal Weighted or Low Volatility Index, rather than continued concentration in mega-cap tech. Beyond artificial intelligence narratives, select cyclicals such as financials and industrials, along with defensive healthcare segments, appear increasingly attractive.

Fixed income markets reacted with nuance to the Warsh nomination. The two-year Treasury yield declined by 3.7 basis points to 3.522 per cent, while the ten-year yield edged up slightly by 0.4 basis points to 4.235 per cent. This flattening at the short end suggests markets priced in a potential delay in near-term rate cuts, given Warsh’s reputation for monetary conservatism.

Nevertheless, the baseline expectation holds for two rate reductions in the second and third quarters of 2026, contingent on labor market deterioration. In this environment, extending bond duration to the five-to-seven-year range and accumulating high-quality fixed income, particularly in developed and emerging market investment grade, offers a prudent hedge against both volatility and eventual easing.

Currency markets mirrored the dollar’s resilience. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.74 per cent to 96.991, with the euro falling to 1.1851 and the yen weakening to 154.78 against the greenback. Notably, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi briefly fueled yen weakness by calling a softer currency a huge opportunity for exporters, a remark she later walked back. Despite the dollar’s short-term strength, the longer-term outlook anticipates depreciation, driven by expected Fed easing. Consequently, EUR/USD is positioned for gains, while USD/JPY should trend lower as broad-based dollar weakness takes hold.

Commodities experienced a historic collapse in precious metals. Gold plunged 8.9 per cent to US$4,894 per ounce, and silver cratered 26.4 per cent to US$85, an unprecedented single-day decline for both. The selloff stemmed not from fundamental supply-demand shifts but from a systemic liquidity crunch that forced leveraged positions across asset classes to unwind.

Meanwhile, Brent crude dipped 0.4 per cent to US$69 per barrel as President Trump signalled openness to negotiations with Iran, reducing immediate geopolitical risk premiums. The outlook for oil remains cautiously negative, while gold’s role as a defensive hedge endures despite its recent volatility.

In Asia, regional equities followed global trends lower, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tumbling 2.1 per cent and Taiwan’s TWSE retreating 1.5 per cent. Profit-taking dominated amid elevated volatility in both crypto and precious metals markets. The strategic stance remains overweight on emerging market Asia, with particular emphasis on China’s tech and dividend-paying stocks, Korea and Taiwan’s semiconductor leaders, and Singapore within ASEAN.

The crypto market, now valued at US$2.53 trillion, declined 5.04 per cent over 24 hours, closely tracking the S&P 500 with a 67 per cent correlation. This underscores crypto’s current identity as a macro-sensitive risk asset rather than a standalone store of value. The primary driver was a severe US dollar liquidity shortage, as highlighted by macro investor Raoul Pal, who attributed the US$250 billion crypto drawdown to capital flight from long-duration assets like Bitcoin and tech equities. Compounding this, the Warsh nomination dimmed hopes for imminent rate cuts, tightening financial conditions further.

Secondary factors amplified the decline. The Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 15, its lowest since November 2025, while US$110 million in Bitcoin long positions were liquidated, triggering a cascade of forced selling. In a market with thin liquidity and high leverage, such dynamics can rapidly spiral into self-fulfilling panic.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s ability to hold the US$75,000 to US$78,000 support zone will dictate near-term direction. A daily close below US$75,000 could open the door to a test of the yearly low near US$2.42 trillion. Conversely, stability above this band and ideally a reclaim of the US$2.6 trillion level could signal a technical rebound. However, until macro liquidity conditions improve or institutional ETF flows turn decisively positive, the path of least resistance remains downward. The week ahead will test whether markets can find a floor or if deeper deleveraging lies ahead.

Source: https://e27.co/risk-assets-retreat-under-macro-pressure-gold-crypto-and-tech-lead-the-decline-20260202/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

July 11th, 2025

Indian official eyes strategic bitcoin reserve in ‘unique opportunity to lead’ – is it viable?

A call by a prominent member of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve for the country has stoked debate among digital finance experts over its feasibility.

Insisting that New Delhi had a “unique opportunity to lead” and pointing to trailblazers such as Bhutan, party spokesman Pradeep Bhandari drew attention to whether India’s rapidly growing economy would benefit from a “measured bitcoin strategy” which could strengthen economic resilience and project modernity.

United States President Donald Trump in March signed an executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve out of digital tokens seized in criminal and civil forfeiture cases, rather than from the previous practice of selling them off.

Bitcoins have risen by 19 per cent year-to-date to US$111,086.90, helped partly by Trump’s favourable view of the cryptocurrency and his family’s heavy involvement in the industry despite dips in market sentiment over global trade tensions.

Bhandari highlighted in an article late last month that even Bhutan had set up a successful model to build up bitcoin reserves by using hydropower resources to mine the currency – an energy-intensive process that involves creating transaction blocks.

Rival Pakistan too has announced plans to create a sovereign bitcoin reserve powered by unused electricity to monetise its energy oversupply. It established a Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) in February to set up a framework for investors and entrepreneurs.

A stablecoin firm that is majority-owned by the Trump Organisation signed a letter of intent with the PCC on April 26 to “accelerate blockchain innovation, stablecoin adoption and decentralised finance integration across Pakistan”.

Bitcoins are a form of digital money outside the control of any one person, group or entity, and have been compared to the modern-day equivalent of a traditional asset such as gold.

There exists only a finite number of 21 million bitcoins, which means that unlike assets such as currencies, stocks or bonds, it is not exposed to oversupply risks.

The International Monetary Fund has recently classified bitcoin as a capital asset, which sharpens the need for clear regulation and transparency in the emerging asset class, enabling responsible innovation, according to Bhandari.

Cryptocurrencies are currently unregulated in India. In 2020, the Supreme Court had lifted a ban on cryptocurrency imposed earlier by the country’s Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which had expressed concerns about its use in illegal transactions.

Indians have poured money into cryptocurrencies in recent years, despite the country’s having a tough regulatory stance and steep taxes on the instrument.

“In the long run, a bitcoin reserve could provide several strategic benefits for India,” said Anndy Lian, a Singapore-based intergovernmental blockchain adviser.

Such a reserve could serve as a hedge against inflation due to bitcoin’s fixed supply, help diversify the foreign reserves portfolio and potentially attract foreign investment by signalling India’s openness to innovative financial technologies, he said.

However, the country faces a steep path to establish a new financial reserve reserves framework.

“The feasibility of establishing a bitcoin reserve faces quite a few challenges due to India’s current regulatory environment. The country lacks a comprehensive legal framework for cryptocurrencies, despite imposing a 30 per cent tax on crypto profits and a 1 per cent Tax Deducted at Source on transactions,” Lian said

“To make this viable, India would need to sort out its regulations, creating clear policies for managing a national bitcoin reserve.”

India’s tax structure might require adjustments in addition to developing a secure infrastructure for storing and managing bitcoin, Lian said, adding that it would also need to step up efforts to build public trust through education.

The nation could think of starting a pilot programme, potentially using seized bitcoin to test feasibility while regulations are refined, Lian said.

Raj Kapoor, chairman of India Blockchain Alliance, agreed the country needed to boost efforts to make the bitcoin reserve viable.

“It is a good proposal on paper, but it won’t be workable until we clear a few cobwebs. There is regulatory uncertainty and jurisdictional ambiguity on cryptocurrency in India,” he said.

With Pakistan appearing to have edged ahead with apparent support from the US and China, Kapoor said India needed to “address gaping holes. How are we talking of a bitcoin reserve without a policy on cryptocurrency in place?”.

One of the biggest obstacles for Delhi is the RBI resisting the widespread adoption of cryptocurrency, apparently stemming from concerns over whether it could dilute its oversight and control of the sovereign rupee currency, he said.

The country could consider a digital asset regulatory authority under the oversight of the central bank that could address any concerns, Kapoor said, noting the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s loose regulation of cryptocurrencies.

“You have to integrate a lot of things before we arrive at a national bitcoin reserve,” he said.

Leveraging strengths

Analysts note that India could also leverage its position as a global hub for information technology services to establish such a digital finance reserve.

Benjamin Grolimund, UAE general manager at Flipster, said introducing a bitcoin reserve for India would hinge upon both policy and infrastructure.

According to Grolimund, India has an advantage of having established a Unified Payment Interface – a real-time payment system which facilitates peer-to-peer payments and peer-to-merchant payments.

“But integrating bitcoin into national reserves will demand more – including secure custody, audit and transparency measures,” he said, adding that controls would also be needed for managing them as sovereign assets.

Grolimund said a national bitcoin reserve established together with a clear policy framework would signal “India’s readiness to play a leading role in shaping the global digital asset landscape”.

He warned, however, of sending “mixed signals” should the government support bitcoin at the state level while limiting access for individuals.

“If Bhandari’s proposal serves as a gateway to broader regulatory clarity and retail adoption, the short-term inconsistency may be a necessary step in India’s evolution,” he said. “The country has already proven its strength in building world-class digital public infrastructure and pioneering fintech models.”

Source: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3317730/indian-official-eyes-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-unique-opportunity-lead-it-viable

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

June 4th, 2025

Global market dynamics: Bitcoin’s wild ride, US tech stocks take the lead

Let’s start with the heartbeat of this story: global risk sentiment. Recently, there’s been a noticeable uptick in optimism among investors, and much of that can be traced back to the US labour market’s surprising strength. The latest US JOLTS (Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey) data dropped a bombshell, revealing that job openings climbed to 7.39 million, blowing past both the previous figure and the consensus forecast of 7.1 million.

This isn’t just a number; it’s a signal that the US economy is holding its ground, even as storm clouds gather elsewhere. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently slashed its growth outlook for both the US and the global economy, painting a picture of potential slowdowns driven by factors like geopolitical tensions and uneven post-pandemic recovery.

But here’s the kicker: the JOLTS data has stolen the spotlight, overshadowing those gloomy forecasts and injecting a dose of confidence into markets worldwide.

Why does this matter? A robust labour market means more jobs, more consumer spending, and a stronger economic backbone—key ingredients for sustaining growth. It’s also a double-edged sword for the Federal Reserve. With job openings this high, wage pressures could persist, keeping inflation stubbornly above the Fed’s two per cent target.

That’s led some investors to rethink their bets on imminent rate cuts, as a tight labor market might prompt the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. For now, though, the takeaway is clear: the US labor market’s resilience is a linchpin for the improved global risk sentiment we’re seeing, acting as a buffer against the OECD’s warnings and giving investors a reason to lean into riskier assets.

US stock markets: Tech takes the lead

This wave of optimism has rippled through the US stock markets, which closed higher on Tuesday in a session that showcased the power of technology. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.51 per cent, the S&P 500 rose 0.58 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite led the pack with a 0.81 per cent increase. Digging into the details, it’s clear that tech stocks were the driving force, with chip makers standing out as some of the biggest winners.

This isn’t surprising—semiconductors are the lifeblood of everything from smartphones to AI systems, and demand shows no signs of slowing. The strong US jobs data likely fueled this rally, as a healthy labor market supports consumer spending on tech-driven products and services.

Another piece of the puzzle is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often dubbed the “fear index.” It dropped to 17.69 from 18.36, hitting its lowest level in over two weeks. For context, a lower VIX means less market fear—investors are feeling more comfortable taking risks rather than hunkering down.

This easing of volatility, paired with rising stock prices, paints a picture of a market shrugging off global growth concerns and embracing the US economy’s underlying strength. Asian equity indices followed suit in early trading today, buoyed by the US jobs surprise, and US equity index futures suggest Wall Street will open higher—a clear sign that this risk-on mood has legs.

Treasury yields and the US dollar: Mixed signals

Shifting gears to the bond market, US Treasury yields have been on the move, climbing across the curve for two straight sessions. The increases were modest—less than 2 basis points (bps)—but notable nonetheless. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.454 per cent (up 1.4 bps), while the 2-year yield hit 3.951 per cent (also up 1.4 bps).

This uptick reflects a subtle shift in investor expectations. Strong labor data could mean a hotter economy and stickier inflation, prompting bondholders to demand higher yields. It’s also a hint that the Fed might not ease monetary policy as quickly as some had hoped, especially with key data like the nonfarm payrolls report looming on Friday.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, edged up by 0.52 per cent. That sounds like a win, but don’t pop the champagne just yet—the dollar’s path forward is anything but certain. With the nonfarm payrolls data and other macroeconomic releases on the horizon, the dollar could face headwinds. A blockbuster jobs report might bolster it further, but any signs of weakness could send it tumbling, especially if investors start pricing in a softer Fed stance. For now, the dollar’s holding its ground, but it’s on a tightrope, and the next few days could tip the balance.

Commodities: Oil up, gold down

Over in the commodities space, we’re seeing a tale of two assets. Brent crude oil jumped 1.5 per cent to settle at US$66 per barrel, a move that likely reflects a mix of geopolitical jitters, supply concerns, and optimism about economic activity tied to the US jobs data. Oil thrives when demand looks strong, and a resilient US economy fits that bill. Gold, on the other hand, took a step back, falling 0.8 per cent to US$3,353 per ounce.

This retreat isn’t shocking—gold often loses its shine when risk sentiment improves and Treasury yields rise. Higher yields make non-yielding assets like gold less appealing, and a stronger dollar doesn’t help either, as it raises the cost for foreign buyers. The contrast between oil and gold underscores how markets are juggling growth hopes with inflationary pressures, a dynamic that’s likely to persist as more data rolls in.

Cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin’s wild ride

Now, let’s dive into the cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin has been stealing headlines. It hit an intraday high of US$106,813.58 before slamming into resistance and sliding back to the US$105,000 range. Ethereum mirrored this pattern, peaking at US$2,650 before dropping to the late $2,500s.

Trading volumes dipped over the past 24 hours, hinting at a pause in the frenzy. But the real drama came with US$155 million in liquidations across the crypto market, including US$94 million in bullish bets wiped out. Bitcoin’s Open Interest fell 2.48 per cent, and Ethereum saw a jaw-dropping 317 per cent drop in funds locked in derivatives—a sign that leveraged players are scaling back. On Binance, traders with open Bitcoin positions tilted bearish, pushing the Long/Short ratio below 1.

Then there’s the Trump twist: a cryptocurrency wallet bearing his name sparked a stir, though the Trump family quickly denied any connection. It’s a reminder of how fast rumors can move in this space—and how they can jolt sentiment. Bitcoin’s volatility isn’t new, but its ability to hover near all-time highs despite these swings shows its growing maturity as an asset class, even as short-term uncertainty lingers.

Truth social and crypto: A bold convergence

Speaking of Trump, his Truth Social platform is making waves in the crypto world. A division of the New York Stock Exchange has filed to list a spot Bitcoin ETF linked to the platform, a move that could bring Bitcoin to everyday investors in a big way.

This follows a partnership between Trump Media and Crypto.com to roll out digital asset products like token baskets and ETFs. The cherry on top? A US$2.5 billion Bitcoin treasury plan from Trump Media, announced as spot Bitcoin ETF assets soar past US$130 billion. This isn’t just a side hustle—it’s a full-on push to merge social media, politics, and cryptocurrency.

What’s the impact? For one, it could democratise crypto access, drawing in retail investors who trust the Trump brand. It also ties Truth Social’s fortunes to Bitcoin’s, potentially amplifying its reach if crypto keeps climbing. But there’s risk too—if Bitcoin stumbles, it could drag the platform’s credibility down with it. This bold bet reflects a broader trend: traditional entities embracing digital assets as they go mainstream, a shift that could reshape both markets and media.

Expert voices: Cai and Hayes weigh in

Finally, let’s hear from the experts. Mike Cai, a former tech exec turned Web 3 investor, is wildly bullish on Bitcoin, predicting it could hit US$1.1 million within a decade. Speaking at the BEYOND Expo in Macau, he argued that AI’s application layer—not large language models—will drive the next tech wave, with Bitcoin riding that tide. He’s even planning an AI hub in Hong Kong to foster startups, a sign of his faith in tech-crypto synergy.

Then there’s Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom and BitMEX co-founder, who told Maeil Economy at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas that Bitcoin could reach US$250,000 this year and US$1 million by 2028. His reasoning? A “weak dollar phenomenon” tied to Trump’s trade policies, which could devalue the dollar and push investors into Bitcoin as a hedge.

Both see structural tailwinds—AI innovation for Cai, dollar dynamics for Hayes—lifting Bitcoin to new heights. Their forecasts aren’t guaranteed, but they highlight why crypto remains a hot topic: it’s a bet on disruption, scarcity, and a shifting financial order.

Wrapping it up

So where does this leave us? Global risk sentiment is on an upswing, thanks to a rock-solid US labor market that’s outshining growth worries. Stocks are riding the wave, yields and the dollar are in flux, and commodities are sending mixed signals.

Bitcoin’s volatility keeps us on our toes, while Truth Social’s crypto pivot could be a game-changer. Experts like Cai and Hayes see a bright future, but the road ahead hinges on data, policy, and sentiment. There are plenty of opportunities, but not without risks.

Source: https://e27.co/global-market-dynamics-bitcoins-wild-ride-us-tech-stocks-take-the-lead-20250604/