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Why Bitcoin ETFs May Outperform Gold ETFs in the Long Run

Why Bitcoin ETFs May Outperform Gold ETFs in the Long Run

Gold and bitcoin are often compared as alternative assets that can hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and geopolitical risks. Both have limited supply, global demand, and no central authority. Both have also attracted the attention of investors who seek to diversify their portfolios and gain exposure to the potential upside of these assets.

However, gold and bitcoin are not the same. Gold has a long history of being used as a store of value and a medium of exchange, while bitcoin is a relatively new invention that relies on cryptography and blockchain technology. Gold is tangible and physical, while Bitcoin is digital and virtual. Gold is widely accepted and regulated, while bitcoin is still controversial and volatile.

These differences have implications for the performance and prospects of gold and bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are investment vehicles that track the prices of these assets and allow investors to buy and sell them on stock exchanges. Gold ETFs have been around since 2003, and have grown to more than a $200 billion industry in 2023, with SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) being one of the largest. Bitcoin ETFs, on the other hand, have only been approved and launched in the U.S. in January 2024, after years of rejections and delays by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). As of January 13, 2024, there are 19 bitcoin ETFs trading, with ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) being the first and the largest fund.

In this article, I will argue that bitcoin ETFs may outperform gold ETFs in the long run, based on the following reasons:

  • Bitcoin has a higher growth potential and scarcity than gold
  • Bitcoin ETFs have lower fees and higher returns than gold ETFs
  • Bitcoin ETFs have more innovation and diversification than gold ETFs

Bitcoin has a higher growth potential and scarcity than gold

One of the main drivers of the value of gold and bitcoin is their scarcity, which means that their supply is limited and cannot be easily increased. Gold has a finite amount of 190,040 metric tons that can be mined from the earth, of which about 80% has already been extracted. Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins, of which about 19 million have already been mined. However, the rate of new supply of gold and bitcoin is not the same. Gold production has been declining in recent years, due to the depletion of reserves, the rising costs of mining, and the environmental and social impacts of the industry. Bitcoin production, on the other hand, is predetermined by an algorithm that halves the reward for miners every four years, until the last bitcoin is mined around 2140. This means that the annual inflation rate of gold is around 1.5%, while the annual inflation rate of bitcoin is around 1.8% and will drop to zero in the future.

This difference in supply dynamics has implications for the demand and price of gold and bitcoin. Gold demand is mainly driven by jewellery, investment, and central bank purchases, which are influenced by factors such as income, wealth, interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical events. Bitcoin demand is mainly driven by speculation, adoption, and innovation, which are influenced by factors such as technology, regulation, network effects, and social sentiment. While both gold and bitcoin have seen increased demand in recent years, due to the global economic and health crisis, the stimulus measures, and the low interest rates, bitcoin has shown faster and stronger growth than gold, due to its novelty, accessibility, and potential. According to the World Gold Council, the annual average gold price rose from $1,481 per ounce in 2019 to $1,769 per ounce in 2020, and then to $1,794 per ounce in 2021, representing a cumulative increase of 21.1%. While data on CoinMarketCap shows that the annual average bitcoin price rose from $7,344 per coin in 2019 to $11,449 per coin in 2020, and then to $46,788 per coin in 2021, representing a cumulative increase of 537.1%.

These trends suggest that bitcoin has a higher growth potential and scarcity than gold, which could translate into higher returns for bitcoin ETFs than gold ETFs in the long run. While gold has a more established and stable market, bitcoin has a more disruptive and dynamic market, which could offer more opportunities and rewards for investors who are willing to take more risks and embrace more changes.

Bitcoin ETFs have lower fees and higher returns than gold ETFs

Another factor that affects the performance of gold and bitcoin ETFs is their fees and returns, which reflect their costs and benefits. Fees are the expenses that investors pay to the fund managers for managing and operating the ETFs, which reduce the net returns that investors receive from the ETFs. Returns are the profits or losses that investors earn or incur from the ETFs, which depend on the price movements of the underlying assets and the dividends or distributions that the ETFs payout.

Generally speaking, bitcoin ETFs have lower fees and higher returns than gold ETFs, which could make them more attractive and profitable for investors. Based ETF Database, the average expense ratio of the 10 gold ETFs trading in the U.S. is 0.42%, while the average expense ratio of the 17 bitcoin ETFs trading in the U.S. is 0.33%. This means that bitcoin ETFs charge less fees than gold ETFs for providing the same service of tracking the prices of the assets. Moreover, according to ETF.com, the average year-to-date return of the 10 gold ETFs trading in the U.S. is -0.76%, while the average year-to-date return of the 17 bitcoin ETFs trading in the U.S. is 7.54%. Again, this means that bitcoin ETFs have generated more profits than gold ETFs for the same period.

These differences in fees and returns can have a significant impact on the long-term performance and compounding of gold and bitcoin ETFs. For example, assuming an initial investment of $10,000 and an annualized return of 7% for both gold and bitcoin ETFs, but a difference of 0.1% in expense ratio, the gold ETF with a 0.4% expense ratio would grow to $38,696 after 20 years, while the bitcoin ETF with a 0.3% expense ratio would grow to $39,346 after 20 years, representing a difference of $650 or 1.7%. This gap would widen even more if the difference in expense ratio or the difference in return is larger.

Therefore, bitcoin ETFs have lower fees and higher returns than gold ETFs, which could make them more attractive and profitable for investors in the long run. While gold ETFs have lower volatility and risk than bitcoin ETFs, bitcoin ETFs have lower costs and higher rewards than gold ETFs, which could outweigh the trade-offs for investors who have a longer time horizon and a higher risk tolerance.

Bitcoin ETFs have more innovation and diversification than gold ETFs

A third factor that affects the performance and prospects of gold and bitcoin ETFs is their innovation and diversification, which reflect their variety and quality. Innovation is the process of creating and introducing new products and services that meet the needs and preferences of customers and markets. Diversification is the strategy of investing in different types of assets and sectors that have low or negative correlation with each other, which can reduce the overall risk and volatility of a portfolio.

Generally speaking, bitcoin ETFs have more innovation and diversification than gold ETFs, which could make them more competitive and resilient for investors. While doing research, I spoke to a gold ETF analyst last week and he based on his point of view and shared the following with me. The gold ETFs trading in the U.S. have only two types of strategies: physical gold ETFs, which hold gold bullion in vaults, and gold miner ETFs, which invest in stocks of companies that mine and produce gold. These ETFs have similar characteristics and performance and are highly correlated with each other and with the gold price. The average correlation coefficient of the gold ETFs trading in the U.S. is 0.94, which means that they move almost in the same direction and magnitude.

On the other hand, the bitcoin ETFs trading in the U.S. have four types of strategies: spot bitcoin ETFs, which hold bitcoin directly in custody, futures bitcoin ETFs, which invest in bitcoin futures contracts, short bitcoin ETFs, which bet against the decline of bitcoin futures, and blockchain and bitcoin ETFs, which invest in stocks of companies and other ETFs with exposure to cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. These ETFs have different characteristics and performance and are less correlated with each other and with the bitcoin price. The average correlation coefficient of the bitcoin ETFs trading in the U.S. is 0.77, which means that they move somewhat in the same direction and magnitude, but not always.

These differences in innovation and diversification can have a significant impact on the long-term performance and stability of gold and bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin ETFs have more innovation and diversification than gold ETFs, which could make them more competitive and resilient for investors. For example, spot bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BTCR) and VanEck Bitcoin Trust (XBTF), offer the most direct and simple way to invest in bitcoin, as they track the spot price of bitcoin and hold bitcoin in custody with qualified custodians, such as Fidelity Digital Assets and Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) Custody. Futures bitcoin ETFs, such as ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) and Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BTF), offer a more indirect and complex way to invest in bitcoin, as they track the futures price of bitcoin and invest in bitcoin futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which are cash-settled and do not involve the delivery of bitcoin. Short bitcoin ETFs, such as Simplify Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (SBTC) and Direxion Daily Bitcoin Bear 1X Shares (BITD), offer a way to profit from the decline of bitcoin, as they track the inverse of the futures price of bitcoin and invest in short positions of bitcoin futures contracts traded on the CME. Blockchain and bitcoin ETFs, such as Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK) and Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF (BITQ), offer a way to invest in the broader cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, as they invest in stocks of companies and other ETFs with exposure to cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, such as Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

These different types of bitcoin ETFs offer different advantages and disadvantages for investors, depending on their risk appetite, return expectation, and investment objective. For instance, spot bitcoin ETFs have the lowest tracking error and the highest correlation with the bitcoin price, but they also have the highest fees and the highest regulatory uncertainty, as they are subject to the PSA requirements and the potential actions of the SEC. Futures bitcoin ETFs have lower fees and lower regulatory uncertainty, as they are subject to the SFA requirements and the existing rules of the CME, but they also have higher tracking error and lower correlation with the bitcoin price, due to the futures premium, contango, and rollover costs. Short bitcoin ETFs have the potential to generate positive returns when the bitcoin price falls, but they also have the potential to incur unlimited losses when the bitcoin price rises, as well as high fees and high volatility. Blockchain and bitcoin ETFs have the potential to capture the growth and innovation of the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, but they also have the potential to suffer from the volatility and risk of the stock market, as well as the diversification and dilution of their exposure to bitcoin.

Therefore, bitcoin ETFs have more innovation and diversification than gold ETFs, which could make them more competitive and resilient for investors. While gold ETFs have more simplicity and stability than bitcoin ETFs, bitcoin ETFs have more variety and quality than gold ETFs, which could offer more options and solutions for investors who have different needs and preferences.

Conclusion: Bitcoin ETFs may outperform gold ETFs in the long run

In conclusion, I believe that bitcoin ETFs may outperform gold ETFs in the long run.

While gold ETFs have their own merits and advantages, such as lower volatility, lower risk, and lower correlation with other assets, I think that bitcoin ETFs have more merits and advantages, such as higher growth, higher reward, and higher innovation, which could outweigh the trade-offs for investors who have a longer time horizon and a higher risk tolerance.

I think that bitcoin ETFs are not only a viable alternative to gold ETFs but also a superior one, as they offer more value and opportunity for investors who seek to diversify their portfolios and gain exposure to the potential upside of digital gold.

Source: https://in.investing.com/analysis/why-bitcoin-etfs-may-outperform-gold-etfs-in-the-long-run-200608903

FAQ

Why does the author, Anndy Lian argue that bitcoin ETFs may outperform gold ETFs in the long run?

The author, Mr Anndy Lian argues that bitcoin ETFs may outperform gold ETFs due to Bitcoin's higher growth potential and scarcity, lower fees, and higher returns compared to gold ETFs. Additionally, the author emphasizes the innovative and diversified nature of bitcoin ETFs, suggesting they offer more opportunities for investors.

What factors contribute to the higher growth potential of bitcoin compared to gold, according to the article?

Anndy Lian states that the higher growth potential of bitcoin compared to gold is attributed to the predetermined supply dynamics of both assets. While gold production has been declining, Bitcoin's algorithm-controlled supply and halving reward for miners contribute to its higher growth potential and scarcity.

How does Anndy Lian highlight the cost-effectiveness of bitcoin ETFs over gold ETFs?

Anndy Lian points out that, on average, bitcoin ETFs have lower fees (expense ratios) compared to gold ETFs. The lower fees, coupled with higher returns for bitcoin ETFs, make them more cost-effective and potentially more profitable for investors.

What role does innovation and diversification play in the comparison between gold and bitcoin ETFs?

Anndy Lian suggests that bitcoin ETFs have a competitive edge over gold ETFs in terms of innovation and diversification. Bitcoin ETFs offer different strategies, including spot bitcoin ETFs, futures bitcoin ETFs, short bitcoin ETFs, and blockchain and bitcoin ETFs, providing investors with more variety and potentially better risk management.

How does the author address the potential risks associated with investing in different types of bitcoin ETFs? different types of bitcoin ETFs?oes the author address the potential risks associated with investing in different types of bitcoin ETFs?

Anndy Lian acknowledges that each type of bitcoin ETF comes with its own set of advantages and disadvantages, such as regulatory uncertainty, tracking error, correlation with bitcoin prices, fees, and potential exposure to stock market volatility. The article suggests that investors should carefully consider their risk appetite, return expectations, and investment objectives when choosing among different types of bitcoin ETFs.

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

SOL /BTC prediction: Can Solana arrest year-long decline, return to growth?

SOL /BTC prediction: Can Solana arrest year-long decline, return to growth?

Solana’s SOL has been seeing a surge in investor interest as it continues to expand its network with more exciting projects coming up. Despite dipping by 87.8% since its all-time high in November 2021, experts are saying that a rebound is near while bitcoin (BTC) is down by around 70% since November 2021 gains.

How do the two coins trade against each other and what does the SOL to BTC forecast suggest amid a bear market? Let’s take a look at the SOL/BTC pair and some of the factors that may shape its exchange rate.

What is SOL/BTC?

SOL/BTC is the exchange rate between SOL, the native cryptocurrency of the Solana blockchain platform, and BTC, the native token of the Bitcoin Network.

Bitcoin was first mined in 2009 by its creator or group of creators who prefer to keep their identity a secret using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. It is also the first ever platform to use a blockchain to build, exchange, store and distribute the digital coin.

The cryptocurrency is used as a peer-to-peer payments method, and over the last 10 years it has also become an investment vehicle.

Bitcoin uses a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism. The cryptocurrency is given as a reward to miners who solve mathematical equations to prove the legitimacy of BTC transactions.

The maximum number of newly mined bitcoins is limited at 21 million. After every 210,000 mined BTC blocks (this takes around four years), the blockchain experiences a halving event, which cuts the number of BTC coins in circulation by half.

Solana is a public, open-source blockchain that hosts a number of projects in the likes of decentralised finance (DeFi) applications, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and Web3.

It prides itself in its low transaction costs (at less than $0.01), fast speed (at 400 milliseconds per block) and security (it is censorship resistant). The blockchain was nicknamed the ‘Ethereum killer’, as it aims to improve what the Ethereum blockchain is lacking.

It was founded in 2017 by a former Qualcomm (QCOM) employee and Dropbox software engineer Anatoly Yakovenko and his colleague Greg Fitzgerald. In contrast to BTC, Solana uses a Proof of History (PoH) consensus mechanism for verifying transactions on the blockchain, which uses an alternative method for calculating time.

Some of the network’s key functions allow users to mint, sell and trade NFTs, create their own DeFi projects, write smart contracts, build Web3 games and accept payments in crypto form.

SOL coins are ERC-20 standard, meaning that they were developed on the Ethereum (ETH) network and are primarily used for interacting on the blockchain.

SOL to BTC price history

Since SOL’s launch in 2020, the SOL to BTC rate struggled to pick up momentum, moving sideways for around 10 months before starting to gain speed at the end of February 2021.

Between late February 2021 and mid-August 2021 the pairing fluctuated between values as low as 0.0001781BTC and as high as 0.001179BTC. The SOL to USD price chart followed a similar trend, fluctuating between $13 and $49.

SOL to BTC price chart, 2020 - 2022

Between 15 August 2021 and 9 September 2021, however, the SOL/BTC pair surged, rising by more than 385%, up from 0.0009374BTC to 0.004576BTC as Solana was being discovered by a number of celebrities, such as Mike Tyson and Jason Derulo. This was also the time when the SOL to BTC reached its all-time high, as seen on the price chart above.

Between 9 September 2021 and 20 October 2021 the SOL/BTC price lost nearly 50% of its gains, dropping to 0.002425BTC as the BTC price in US dollars started to see major gains, surging by around 39% within the period from $46,000 to $64,000.

BTC to USD price chart, 2013 - 2022

In line with other major cryptocurrencies, the SOL/BTC rate regained a big portion of its losses as it rose to 0.004202BTC by 7 November 2021, at the time when the SOL value in USD reached its all-time high of $258.78.

SOL to USD price chart, 2020 - 2022

Up until the start of January 2022, the SOL to BTC exchange rate was fluctuating between 0.004000BTC and 0.003000BTC before falling more than 60% to 0.001149BTC on 13 June 2022, amid overall broad negative investor sentiment.

In terms of technical analysis, the chief digital advisor at the Mongolian Productivity Organisation and author of NFT: From Zero to Hero, Anndy Lian, told Capital.com that the SOL price could be headed towards a trend reversal, as of 28 October.

“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the token is in the overbought zone, signalling a reversal could be on the way,” he said.

The pairing’s current exchange rate (28 October) is 0.00151BTC, up by 31.4% since its 13 June 2022 dip.

What is driving SOL/BTC?

On 30 September 2022, the Solana Mainnet Beta cluster experienced an outage, which led to a temporary collapse in the blockchain. This saw the SOL to BTC exchange rate drop by 3.1% within a week, down to 0.001682BTC by 7 October 2022, from 0.001735BTC on the day of the outage.

Dr. Pooja Lekhi, professor of global financial institutions, risk management approach and financial management at University Canada West, told Capital.com:

“Solana has experienced several recent network outages and failures. In the beginning of June, validators in the network stopped processing new blocks for several hours and apps built on Solana’s blockchain were taken offline, which sent its price down more than 12%.”

Projects built on Solana have potential to affect the token’s future price. On 27 October, the Web3 platforms built on Solana Decentralised Engineering Corporation (DEC) and Teleport announced that they have raised funding to bring a Web3 Uber rival (TRIP) to the Solana blockchain, something Ethereum co-creator Vitalik Buterin theorised a while back.

Lian noted that bringing the ridesharing industry to the Solana ecosystem “would surely put SOL into a high utility mode”.

In addition, Solana had partnered with artist Nancy Baker Cahill. She launched her first NFT collection on the blockchain that was shown across 90 billboards on Times Square. Metaplex, an NFT ecosystem built on Solana, also announced it was bringing a new asset class that will allow “creators to enforce royalties at the protocol level by extending the Token Metadata program, which powers 99%+ of all NFTs on Solana.”

Dr. Lekhi noted that until Solana network’s upgrade, “stability will remain a major concern for the SOL, adding:

“It is expected that the Mainnet version will stop the power outage issue. The SOL market had set higher benchmarks for its prices, along with developments in decentralised exchanges, Solana NFT marketplace, Yield aggregators and online games.”

The date for the upgrade launch is yet to be announced.

The enthusiasm surrounding Solana also comes following the news about Saga, its flagship Android phone, which will start shipping in 2023, Lian noted. Solana announced that Saga will have its first mint event on 28 October, which will only be available to those who pre-ordered the phone.

SOL/BTC price prediction

Based on the analysis of past performance, as of 28 October, algorithm-based forecasting service Wallet Investor predicted that SOL/USD could fall to $2.947 in 2023. The platform did not provide a price prediction for 2027.

In terms of its BTC value forecast, the site saw BTC/USD trade at $23,107.27 in 2023 and reach $36,574.97 by 2027.

While Wallet Investor did not provide a direct SOL to BTC forecast, data suggested that the exchange rate could be 0.00012754BTC in 2023.

DigitalCoinPrice predicted that SOL/USD could rise to $36.55 by the end of 2022. The site’s data, as of 28 October, showed that the coin was expected to trade at $49.68 in 2023 and $80.94 in 2025. Its long-term prediction saw the coin reaching $169.10 in 2030.

The site also gave an upbeat BTC/USD forecast, as of 28 October, expecting the coin to grow to $25,646.42 by the end of 2022, reach $33,474.34 in 2023, $53,010.14 in 2025 and surpass $112,000 in 2030.

DigitalCoinPrice’s SOL to BTC forecast for 2022 expected the pair to reach 0.0014252BTC and 0.0014841BTC in 2023. The site’s SOL/BTC forecast for 2025 stood at 0.0015269BTC. Its long-term SOL/BTC forecast for 2030 was 0.0015098BTC.

Dr. Lekhi noted that 2022 was not a good year for SOL, however, the coin may observe a steady growth in the coming months as a rebound in SOL’s price is anticipated.

Lian added that interest in SOL is “extremely high” which could mean that its future movement could be “overall positive”, adding that “with the strong ecosystem backing its value, the rebound can be promising.”

Remember that analysts’ and algorithm-based predictions can be wrong and shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research.

Always conduct your own due diligence on a cryptocurrency project before trading, looking at the latest news, a wide range of analyst commentary and technical analysis. Note that past performance does not guarantee future returns. And never trade money you cannot afford to lose.

 

Source: https://capital.com/sol-btc-prediction-solana-bitcoin-exchange

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

XRP to USD forecast: Can Ripple price finally reverse long-term downward trend?

XRP to USD forecast: Can Ripple price finally reverse long-term downward trend?

Ripple is one of the most talked about coin.

– What has been affecting the Ripple coin price recently?

The on-going, never ending and changing lawsuit is one of the key uncertainties. SEC has a different angled strategy against Ripple through Wahi complaint. This added insider trading allegations against 2 other Coinbase employees and putting 9 other cryptocurrencies as securities. If the SEC wins the case, this would set a precedent and would cause more problems for the crypto industry as a whole.

This outcome for Ripple might affect their On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service. And if U.S. banks are not going with the ODL plans, this will then weaken Ripple’s CBDC setup and investors will not be very happy.

– Where could the token be headed in the future

According to CoinMarketCap price prediction function, 1222 users voted and predicted that the price of XRP will be around $0.4905 by 30 September 2022. This is a 47.86% increase in the current price. I must say that the supporters are still considerably bullish on the coin and hope they can get out of the lawsuit quickly.

I am more realistic at this point. I hope to see more signed partnerships that are actually useful, not for PR purposes and see more real implementations in a larger manner, not purely news on how they help streamline Japan-Thailand money transfers. I hope to see more details. I am sure the investors at large want to see more too.

 

XRP to USD forecast: Can Ripple price finally reverse long-term downward trend?

 

Ripple (XRP/USD) is among the top 10 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation. Dubbed a “better alternative to bitcoin”, Ripple aims to futurise global payments.

However, in recent years the company has been caught in the midst of a US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing, with its native cryptocurrency, XRP, struggling to reach past highs…for over four years.

Down by 90.3 % since its 2018 all-time high of $3.3778, at the time of writing (5 September) the XRP to USD exchange rate stood at $0.3275. Can the token repeat the record levels, and what is the latest news on the SEC case?

What is XRP/USD and Ripple?

Ripple was created in 2011 by engineers David Schwartz, Jed McCaleb and Arthur Britto. They began developing the XRP Ledger (XRPL),  a decentralised, permissionless, open-source, public blockchain.

The Ripple platform is a payment settlement system and currency exchange network using XRP Ledger Consensus Protocol. The network prides itself in its transaction speed, which according to its website, can take between three and five seconds and has low transaction fees that are “typically” under $0.01.

Ripple’s distributed consensus mechanism uses designated servers called validators, who have to agree on the order and outcome of transactions on the platform to enable them. Transactions are made in XRP coins, the platform’s native cryptocurrency.

The token can be sent to other users directly without the need of a central intermediary. XRP coins are freely exchanged on the open market and used in the real world for enabling cross-border payments and microtransactions.

Upon the token’s launch, XRPL’s founders gifted 80 billion XRP to the company. Ripple has since put the majority in escrow. As of August 2022, 44bn tokens remain in escrow.

 

What is your sentiment on XRP/USD?

XRP/USD price analysis

Unlike many of its rival cryptocurrencies that gained popularity in late 2021, XRP achieved its first success in the early months of 2018 as it was teaming up with a number of legacy financial institutions, like American Express and Santander. The token spiked to the all-time high of $3.3778 in January 2018, yet the rally was short-lived as XRP fell below $1 in late February. XRP to USD chart, September 2013 – September 2022

After two years of fluctuating between $0.60 and $0.10, the XRP coin price rebounded to $1.8391 on 14 April 2021 amid wider cryptocurrency bull run.

Throughout the remainder of 2021, the XRP to USD chart suffered fluctuations, rising as high as $1.3894 at the start of September 2021 and dropping as low as $0.7993 by mid-December.

At the start of 2022, XRP was holding steady at $0.80. It dropped to $0.30 as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and surging inflation started to affect broader cryptocurrency sentiment. As of 5 September, the current exchange rate of XRP to USD stood at $0.3275.

 

SEC’s case against Ripple

In December 2020, Ripple found itself in the midst of a SEC filing, which accused the company’s top executives, co-founder Christian Larsen and CEO Bradley Garlinghouse, of misleading XRP investors by selling $1.3bn worth of coins without reporting to the commission. The SEC had also accused the executives of profiting from the trade by around $600m.

In March 2022, the court denied the SEC’s request to strike Ripple’s fair notice defence, which argued that contrary to the case, the company did not receive a fair warning that its sales of XRP coins could be in violation of security laws.

In July 2022, Ripple won a ruling that will allow the company to access emails from the SEC about a 2018 speech where a former official declared that Ethereum was not a security. The evidence could help Ripple in arguing that XRP cannot be labelled as such. The SEC, however, continued to battle this ruling and filed a brief arguing that the speech drafts “are not relevant to any claim or defense in this case”.

On 19 August, Ripple filed a motion to seal the identities of non-parties, some company employees and the personal financial information of employees. The SEC replied, clarifying that in doing so, it “does not concede that the above categories of information should properly be sealed for summary judgement briefing, and reserves its rights to oppose similar sealing requests for summary judgement.”

The judge granted the SEC’s request to file a 90-page long reply to its motion that seeks to exclude the testimony of Ripple Labs’ witnesses.

The outcome of the court proceedings could remain the key factor affecting the movements on the XRP chart. As of 5 September, analysts and investors await 9 September, when both parties are expected to seal any portion of the filings together with proposed redaction.

Responses to the motion must be submitted by 16 September. Motions for summary judgement are expected by 15 September,  and any opposition to that must be received by 18 October and answered by 15 November. The coming months will be of great importance for Ripple enthusiasts.

“The ongoing, never ending and changing lawsuit is one of the key uncertainties. SEC has a different angled strategy against Ripple through Wahi complaint. This added insider trading allegations against two other Coinbase employees and put nine other cryptocurrencies as securities,” said Anndy Lian, chief digital advisor of the Mongolian Productivity Organisation.
“If the SEC wins the case, this would set a precedent and would cause more problems for the crypto industry as a whole,” he told Capital.com.

On 21 July, the SEC filed a complaint against Ishan Wahi,  Coinbase’s manager in its assets and investing products division, and two other employees, accusing them of insider trading and securities fraud. In the filing, the commission noted that the nine coins Wahi and other defendants traded were “crypto asset securities”.

 

XRP to USD forecast for 2022 and beyond

Despite the latest downward price action, algorithm-based forecasting service Wallet Investor gave a bullish XRP to USD crypto exchange rate prediction as of 5 September. The site noted that XRP is “an outstanding long-term investment”, adding that it has a long-term earning potential amounting to 284.71%.

Based on its analysis of past price performance, Wallet Investor predicted that the token could trade at $0.517 in 2023 and reach $1.258 by 2027.

DigitalCoinPrice supported the positive XRP to USD future exchange rate forecast at the time of writing, expecting the token to grow to $0.48 by the end of 2022 and reach $1.50 by the end of 2025.

By the end of 2027, the site predicted that the exchange rate of XPR to USD could reach $1.63. The website’s long-term forecast for the token showed that the cryptocurrency could surge to $4.63 by 2030.

Mark Fidelman, founder of SmartBlocks, was bullish on XRP to USD exchange rate, yet noted that the outcome of the SEC case will play a crucial role in shaping Ripple’s future.

“If [Ripple wins] the lawsuit, it should be heading back up to over a buck by the end of year, maybe more…It’s more effective and more efficient than anything that the banks are doing, so it should scare the banks and should help crypto,” he told Capital.com.

Note that predictions about the future of XRP can be wrong. Forecasts and analyst expectations shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence looking at the latest news, price charts.  technical and fundamental analysis.

Remember that past performance does not guarantee future returns. And never trade money that you cannot afford to lose.

 

Source: https://capital.com/xrp-usd-forecast-dollar-ripple-price

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
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