Tag Archives: macro

Bitcoin’s US$74K surge: Institutional conviction or macro mirage?

Bitcoin’s US$74K surge: Institutional conviction or macro mirage?

Bitcoin climbed 5.38 per cent to US$74,532.74 over the last 24 hours, outpacing a broader market rally and signalling renewed conviction among institutional participants. This move did not occur in isolation. Bitcoin now shows a 94.5 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 and a 64.0 per cent correlation with Gold, underscoring how macro forces increasingly steer digital asset price action.

The primary engine behind this advance remains spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which recorded their largest weekly total since early January. When traditional finance channels allocate capital at this scale, the market listens. Yet the strong link to equities invites a deeper question: whether Bitcoin still functions as an independent store of value or merely amplifies global risk sentiment.

My view leans toward the latter for now, and that distinction matters for how we interpret both the rally and its sustainability.

Institutional demand drove the narrative last week with US$1.1 billion flowing into crypto investment products, the strongest weekly tally since January. Bitcoin captured US$871 million of that total, demonstrating focused appetite for the flagship asset. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust alone absorbed US$612 million in a single day, a clear signal that large allocators continue to accumulate on strength. These flows matter because spot ETF buying translates directly into on-chain demand, tightening available supply, and supporting higher prices.

However, this mechanism also concentrates influence among a handful of large issuers. While the price impact is undeniable, the centralisation of custody and voting power within these structures runs counter to the decentralisation ethos that originally defined the asset class. For investors who value self-sovereign control, this tension warrants attention even as we acknowledge the bullish price implications.

Macro sentiment provided the catalyst that amplified ETF-driven demand. Easing geopolitical tensions around Iran and softer US inflation data encouraged a risk-on shift across global markets. At the same time, total derivatives open interest rose 10.85 per cent to US$469.39 billion, indicating fresh capital and leveraged positioning entering the market.

The average funding rate sits at a neutral +0.00018581 per cent, which suggests bulls have not yet overcrowded the trade. This balance between conviction and caution defines the current tape. Macro relief opened the door, while rising open interest shows trader commitment, yet it also heightens the risk of sharp liquidations if sentiment reverses. I watch funding rates and open interest closely because they often foreshadow volatility spikes that can erase gains faster than they appeared.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance near the recent swing high at US$75,988. The key near-term trigger remains the persistence of ETF inflows. If price holds above US$73,388, which marks the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level, the path opens for a retest of the US$75,000 to US$75,988 zone. A daily close above US$75,000 would confirm breakout momentum and likely invite follow-through buying.

Conversely, a break below US$71,780, the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci level, would signal deeper consolidation and potentially trigger stop losses. The structure favours bulls, but this area clusters profit-taking orders and leveraged shorts, so expect two-way volatility as the market probes these levels. I prioritise the daily close because intraday wicks often mislead, while closing prints reflect genuine conviction.

Broader market action reinforced the risk-on tone. The S&P 500 rose 1.02 per cent to close at 6,886.24, breaking above its 100-day moving average. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.23 per cent to 23,183.74, led by a sharp rebound in technology giants. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.63 per cent to reach 48,218.25, turning positive for the 2026 calendar year. The Russell 2000 surged 1.52 per cent to 2,670.49, showing small caps participated in the rally.

Overseas, the Nikkei 225 faced early pressure but recovered late in the session, still tracking a year-to-date gain of roughly 13 per cent. The FTSE 100 edged lower in morning trade, testing critical Fibonacci resistance around 10,579. Commodities reflected shifting sentiment as Brent Crude fell 1.9 per cent to US$97.46 a barrel, paring some of its recent spike above US$100, driven by the Hormuz blockade. Gold rose 0.25 per cent to approximately US$4,779.20, holding technical support near the US$4,700 level. The US 10 Year Treasury Yield eased slightly to 4.29 per cent, though it remains elevated due to inflation fears linked to the Middle East conflict.

Specific market movers highlighted the AI and growth narrative. Oracle jumped 7.25 per cent to US$155.62 following strong earnings sentiment and AI-driven growth. Palantir climbed four per cent after ARK Investment Management added significantly to its position. Thomson Reuters advanced 5.07 per cent on AI integration news and analyst upgrades. Beyond Meat surged 10.63 per cent while Real Messenger experienced a massive 475 per cent spike in highly volatile trading. Micron dipped 2.12 per cent, signalling some persistent unease in the semiconductor supply chain.

Indian markets were closed on 14 April for Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Jayanti. In Europe, the pan-European STOXX 600 is expected to continue its rally through 2026, targeting 623 points by year’s end. Market participants also watch today’s Producer Price Index data, following March’s CPI, which showed easing but still elevated inflation. These cross-asset moves matter because Bitcoin rarely decouples for long when macro data shifts.

My perspective synthesises these threads. The ETF-driven rally is real and powerful, yet the 94.5 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 suggests Bitcoin currently trades as a high beta risk asset rather than an uncorrelated hedge. That does not diminish the opportunity, but it reframes the risk.

Institutional flows provide a solid floor, but they also tether price action to traditional market sentiment and regulatory developments. I value the liquidity and accessibility that ETFs bring, yet I remain mindful that self-custody and protocol-level innovation represent the long-term foundation of the ecosystem.

For traders, the setup favours upside if US$73,388 holds and ETF inflows persist. For longer-term participants, the question extends beyond price to whether this wave of adoption strengthens or dilutes the network’s decentralisation. Both views can coexist, but clarity about your own objectives prevents confusion when volatility returns.

The combination of institutional demand and macro relief has propelled Bitcoin higher, but vigilance remains essential. Markets reward preparation more than prediction, and in this environment, that means tracking flows, respecting technical levels, and maintaining flexibility as new data arrives.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoins-us74k-surge-institutional-conviction-or-macro-mirage-20260414/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

SEC gives crypto win, markets don’t care: Why macro forces just crushed US$200M in Bitcoin

SEC gives crypto win, markets don’t care: Why macro forces just crushed US$200M in Bitcoin
The convergence of escalating Middle East tensions, stubborn inflation, and unyielding central bank policies has created a treacherous environment for investors across asset classes. From the trading floors of Wall Street to the digital exchanges powering cryptocurrency markets, fear has taken hold as traders grapple with the prospect of prolonged economic uncertainty.

The numbers tell a sobering story. Traditional equity indices posted modest declines, but the magnitude of these losses masks the underlying turbulence. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3 per cent to 6,606.49, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite mirrored this decline, also falling 0.3 per cent to 22,090.69. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared slightly worse, shedding 0.4 per cent to close at 46,021.43. These movements occurred against the backdrop of triple witching, the quarterly expiration of stock options, futures, and other derivatives estimated at a staggering US$5.7T. Such events typically amplify volatility, and today proved no exception.

The cryptocurrency market experienced even more pronounced stress. Digital assets fell 0.81 per cent over 24 hours, with the total market capitalisation dropping to US$2.42T. Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, tumbled below the psychologically important US$70,000 threshold. More than US$142M in Bitcoin long positions faced liquidation within a single day, forcing leveraged traders out of the market and accelerating the downward spiral. What makes this selloff particularly noteworthy is the 92 per cent correlation between cryptocurrency prices and gold, suggesting that digital assets are increasingly behaving like traditional inflation hedges rather than the high-growth technology bets they once were.

The root cause of this market-wide anxiety traces back to two interconnected factors. First, the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish message on March 19, holding rates steady at 3.50 per cent to 3.75 per cent while upgrading its inflation forecasts. The European Central Bank adopted a similarly cautious stance. These decisions reflect central bankers’ growing concern about sticky inflation, particularly as energy prices surge due to geopolitical disruptions. Second, tensions in the Middle East have intensified, with conflicts threatening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.

Oil markets have reacted predictably to these developments. West Texas Intermediate crude, after spiking on news of the Hormuz disruptions, retreated 1.7 per cent to US$93.95 a barrel on Friday. This pullback provided some relief to Asian markets, where the MSCI Asia Pacific Index managed a 0.2 per cent gain as oil prices stabilised. Japanese markets remained closed for a holiday, sparing traders from the day’s volatility. European equities faced steeper losses, with the STOXX 600 falling 0.7 per cent as tech and utility stocks bore the brunt of energy price pressures. The index closed at 598.00, reflecting the continent’s particular vulnerability to energy supply disruptions.

Bond markets sent mixed signals about investor sentiment. The US 10-year Treasury yield edged slightly lower to 4.25 per cent, suggesting some flight to safety. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield climbed to 3.79 per cent, indicating that traders expect the Federal Reserve to maintain higher rates for longer. This yield curve dynamic reinforces the challenging environment for risk assets, as borrowing costs remain elevated and the prospect of near-term rate cuts fades.

Amid this macroeconomic turbulence, cryptocurrency markets received a glimmer of positive news that ultimately failed to move the needle. On March 18, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued joint guidance classifying major tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum as digital commodities. This regulatory clarity represents a structural positive for the industry, potentially paving the way for broader institutional adoption. This development was completely overshadowed by macro fears, demonstrating that cryptocurrency markets remain highly sensitive to traditional financial conditions despite their decentralised nature.

The immediate outlook hinges on several critical support levels. Bitcoin must defend the US$69,000 to US$70,000 zone to prevent further deterioration. Ethereum needs to hold above US$2,150. A failure at these levels, combined with another spike in the US Dollar Index, could push the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation toward US$2.3T. Derivatives open interest currently stands at US$416.64B, and any continued decline from this level would reduce systemic squeeze risk but would likely be accompanied by further price weakness.

Interestingly, not all market segments moved in lockstep. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller US companies, bucked the negative trend, posting a 0.65 per cent gain to 2,494.71. This outperformance suggests that domestic-focused smaller firms may be better positioned to weather geopolitical storms than their multinational counterparts, which face greater exposure to international supply chain disruptions and currency fluctuations.

The path forward remains fraught with uncertainty. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on May 6 and 7 will provide crucial insights into whether policymakers maintain their hawkish stance or pivot in response to economic data. Any escalation in Middle East conflicts could send oil prices higher, further complicating the inflation picture and forcing central banks to keep rates elevated. A de-escalation of tensions combined with softer inflation data could restore some confidence to risk assets.

For now, investors face a difficult calculus. The regulatory progress in cryptocurrency markets offers long-term promise, but short-term sentiment remains dictated by interest rates and oil prices. Traditional equity markets show resilience but lack conviction. The correlation between digital assets and gold suggests a fundamental shift in how investors perceive cryptocurrency, and this new identity as an inflation hedge provides little comfort when both assets face pressure from the same macroeconomic forces.

The question every market participant must answer is whether current valuations adequately reflect these risks or if further adjustment lies ahead. With Bitcoin testing critical support levels, equity indices hovering near session lows, and bond yields signalling prolonged monetary restraint, the coming weeks will prove decisive in determining whether this represents a temporary setback or the beginning of a more sustained market correction. 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why Bitcoin fell from US$100k to mid US$60k amid macro uncertainty

Why Bitcoin fell from US$100k to mid US$60k amid macro uncertainty

Bitcoin faces a multi-day losing streak that analysts identify as the harshest reset since past major bear markets. The asset peaked above US$100,000 in October 2025 before falling roughly 50 per cent to the mid US$60,000s. A sharp flush to about US$60,000 on 5 February triggered heavy forced selling and extreme options demand for downside protection.

Volatility and derivatives stress levels are at levels last seen during the FTX era and the 2018-style resets. On-chain and valuation metrics have shifted into early bear-market territory. Sentiment sits near extreme fear, with the Fear & Greed Index at 6. This reading marks the second-lowest ever. Key support zones now focus around US$60,000 and roughly US$55,000. Investors watch ETF flows and whether on-chain composite indices recover or slide further toward full capitulation zones.

The streak reflects broad de-risking across spot, derivatives, and ETF flows after a very extended bull run. Analysts at K33 and Bitcoin Magazine describe capitulation-like conditions in volume, funding, and options skew as BTC approached US$60,000. Daily RSI sits near 16. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen around US$400 million in weekly net outflows.

A big drop in assets under management from a 2025 peak has removed an important source of incremental demand. This data suggests the market struggles to find buyers at current levels. The structure looks more like the early part of a bear phase than a brief correction. This implies longer, choppy sideways to down price action appears likely.

CryptoQuant’s Combined Market Index blends valuation, profitability, spending behaviour, and sentiment. This index dropped to around 0.2. Analysts linked this zone to the early stages of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets rather than a mid-cycle dip. A separate heatmap of 10 major on-chain metrics shows all key signals in the red band. These signals include trader profit margins and network activity. Conditions remain inconsistent with new highs in the short term.

Realised price tracks the average cost basis of all BTC. This metric currently stands at around US$55,000. Past cycle lows have often formed 24 to 30 per cent below it. This places a potential high-risk, high-reward zone around that area if history repeats. Analysts flag US$60,000 to US$62,000 as a critical support band. K33 work suggests consolidation between roughly US$60,000 and US$75,000 now forms the base case. Deeper downside awaits if US$60,000 fails.

Broader market context adds weight to this cautious outlook. Major US stock indices ended slightly higher on February 17, 2026. The session saw the S&P 500 swing between gains and losses as investors grappled with persistent fears regarding AI expenditures. The S&P 500 rose 0.1 per cent to close at 6,843.22. It found support near its 100-day moving average after an initial drop of nearly one per cent.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.14 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 32.26 points to settle at 49,533.19. Financials and real estate each rose approximately 1.1 per cent. In contrast, the energy sector fell 1.4 per cent, and consumer staples dropped 1.5 per cent. General Mills sank seven per cent after cutting its annual outlook. The technology-heavy Nasdaq faced pressure from a 2.2 per cent drop in software-focused ETFs.

Commodities signalled risk-off behaviour. Gold prices plummeted more than two per cent. Prices fell below US$5,000 to settle at around US$4,884 per ounce. Oil prices dropped roughly two per cent to a two-week low. Brent crude settled at US$67.42 and WTI at US$62.33. Reports of a new window of opportunity for a potential nuclear deal reduced safe-haven demand for gold. This also lowered the risk premium on oil. AI anxiety triggered a bout of volatile trading.

Scepticism about tech giants’ ability to monetise their high AI expenditures worried investors. Dip buyers helped indices recover by the close. Liquidity remained thin following the US Presidents’ Day holiday and ongoing Lunar New Year closures in China and Hong Kong. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up slightly to 4.06 per cent. The 2-year yield rose to 3.439 per cent.

My view synthesises these disjointed signals into a coherent narrative. The Bitcoin reset aligns with broader macro uncertainty. While stock indices closed slightly higher, the underlying volatility suggests fragility. The drop in gold alongside Bitcoin indicates a liquidation of safe havens rather than a rotation into risk. The US$400 million weekly ETF outflows confirm institutional hesitation. Investors need multiple consecutive days of strong inflows to reset the current bearish regime. The realised price near US$55,000 offers a logical floor, yet history suggests prices could dip 24 to 30 per cent below this level.

The BCMI at 0.2 reinforces the bear market comparison. Traders should focus less on picking an exact bottom. Focus remains on whether US$60,000 and the realised price hold. ETFs and on-chain signals must stabilise before optimism returns. The current environment demands patience as the market searches for a true bottom amidst economic crosscurrents.

AI scepticism in equities and crypto derivatives highlights shared sensitivity to liquidity conditions across asset classes. This parallel suggests that the crypto downturn is not isolated from traditional finance movements. Investors observe that doubts about technology expenditure in the stock market mirror the de-risking seen in Bitcoin derivatives.

Both markets react sharply to changes in yield expectations and risk appetite. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.06 per cent, adding pressure to valuation models for high-growth assets. Higher yields typically reduce the present value of future cash flows for tech firms and diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. This correlation strengthens the argument for a cautious approach until yields stabilise.

Nevertheless, the path forward involves navigating choppy sideways action until clear recovery signals emerge.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoin-fell-from-us100k-to-mid-us60k-amid-macro-uncertainty-20260218/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j