The new gold standard? Bitcoin’s macro hedge role amid US debt and trade turmoil

The new gold standard? Bitcoin’s macro hedge role amid US debt and trade turmoil

The interplay of global macroeconomic dynamics and cryptocurrency market trends presents a complex tapestry of investor sentiment, speculative positioning, and structural shifts in asset valuation frameworks.

At the forefront of this landscape lies Bitcoin (BTC), whose recent price action and derivatives market metrics have sparked intense scrutiny. Simultaneously, Ethereum’s (ETH) unique capacity to generate organic yield through protocol-level mechanisms offers a stark contrast to Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative.

To dissect these phenomena, we must contextualise Bitcoin’s soaring open interest within broader market psychology while contrasting Ethereum’s yield-generating potential against traditional financial paradigms.

Bitcoin’s derivatives surge: Implications for price dynamics

Bitcoin’s derivatives market has reached unprecedented levels of activity, with total open interest across exchanges hitting US$73.59 billion, a figure that underscores the growing institutionalisation of crypto markets. This metric reflects the total notional value of outstanding futures and options contracts, serving as a barometer for speculative fervour and hedging activity.

The dominance of regulated venues like CME (US$16.71 billion) and Binance (US$12.08 billion) highlights divergent participant profiles: CME’s institutional-heavy structure versus Binance’s retail-driven ecosystem. Such bifurcation amplifies market complexity as macro-hedge funds and algorithmic traders interact with retail sentiment, often leading to asymmetrical price discovery mechanisms.

Historically, surges in open interest have preceded heightened volatility. For instance, Bitcoin’s 2021 bull run saw open interest peak at US$25 billion before a 35 per cent correction, illustrating the liquidation risks inherent in leveraged positions. The current US$73.59 billion figure, however, operates within a transformed regulatory and infrastructural environment.

Institutional-grade custody solutions and improved risk management tools have enhanced market resilience, potentially mitigating cascading liquidations even during sharp corrections. Yet, the concentration of US$28.79 billion in the top two exchanges raises concerns about systemic interconnectivity, particularly given Binance’s recent regulatory challenges and CME’s role as a clearinghouse for macro funds.

The psychological significance of Bitcoin’s US$100,000–US$110,000 range cannot be overstated. Having breached this threshold in May 2025, BTC’s subsequent consolidation reflects a classic accumulation phase, wherein long-term holders absorb volatility while short-term speculators test support levels.

On-chain data revealing 19,400 BTC inflows to institutional wallets corroborates this thesis, suggesting strategic positioning ahead of anticipated catalysts, possibly tied to the US election cycle or ETF approval timelines. Notably, the 0.9 outflow/inflow ratio signals net accumulation, a bullish indicator historically associated with multi-month rallies.

However, the persistent short-side pressure on Binance derivatives, despite BTC’s resilience, introduces a tug-of-war dynamic where capitulation events could trigger explosive moves in either direction.

From a technical perspective, the US$100,000–US$110,000 range may serve as a springboard for a parabolic rally, as suggested by cyclical patterns observed in prior halving cycles. The nine per cent correction to US$98,300 in June 2025 barely grazed the 200-day moving average, preserving the uptrend’s integrity.

Should volume profiles expand alongside institutional inflows, a breakout above US$111,800 could activate algorithmic buy orders, propelling BTC toward US$120,000 by year-end. Conversely, a decisive close below US$95,000 would invalidate this thesis, potentially triggering a retest of US$85,000 support—a scenario deemed low probability by analysts tracking on-chain fundamentals.

Ethereum’s yield paradigm: A structural shift in crypto valuation

While Bitcoin dominates headlines as a macro hedge and digital gold, Ethereum’s evolution into a yield-generating infrastructure asset represents a seismic shift in crypto-economics.

Unlike Bitcoin’s fixed-supply, proof-of-work model, which relies solely on a monetary premium for returns, Ethereum’s post-Merge architecture enables stakers to earn ~three per cent annualised yields through network validation. This organic cash flow mechanism aligns Ethereum with traditional income-producing assets, bridging the gap between decentralised protocols and institutional portfolios.

Staking’s appeal lies in its dual function as both a security mechanism and a revenue stream. By locking ETH to validate transactions, participants secure the network while earning issuance rewards and transaction fees.

Restaking protocols like EigenLayer further amplify yields by allowing staked ETH to secure third-party applications, creating a layered economy of risk and return. This operational model contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s reliance on financial engineering, such as ETFs or lending products, to generate yield, positioning Ethereum as a hybrid between a utility network and a capital asset.

The implications for institutional adoption are profound. Traditional investors, accustomed to dividend-paying equities or coupon-bearing bonds, often struggle to reconcile Bitcoin’s non-yielding nature with portfolio allocation models. Ethereum’s three per cent base yield, however, provides a familiar entry point, particularly for sovereign wealth funds and pension schemes seeking inflation-hedged returns.

BlackRock’s recent filings for an Ethereum ETF underscore this trajectory, signaling a potential influx of US$50 billion or more in institutional capital should regulatory hurdles ease.Moreover, Ethereum’s yield ecosystem extends beyond passive income. Decentralised finance (DeFi) protocols enable dynamic strategies—such as liquidity provision or leveraged staking—that can boost returns to 8–12 per cent, albeit with elevated risk.

This programmable yield, combined with Layer 2 scaling solutions reducing transaction costs, creates a virtuous cycle of capital inflows and network utility. In contrast, Bitcoin’s yield opportunities remain tethered to centralised intermediaries (e.g., BlockFi’s interest accounts), exposing holders to counterparty risks that Ethereum’s trustless staking avoids.

Intermarket dynamics: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and macro resilience

The divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum narratives plays out against a backdrop of global uncertainty. With US Treasury yields climbing toward five per cent and trade wars intensifying, risk assets face headwinds that disproportionately impact high-duration investments.

Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq equities, evident in its muted response to tariff-driven volatility, suggests lingering sensitivity to Fed policy. Ethereum’s staking yield, however, may decouple it from traditional tech valuations, as its cash flows provide downside protection during liquidity crunches.

Gold’s retreat to US$3,300/oz amid dollar strength further highlights Bitcoin’s evolving role as a non-sovereign reserve asset. While gold remains a crisis hedge, its lack of yield and logistical constraints in storage and transmission render it inferior to programmable digital alternatives.

Ethereum’s ability to offer both appreciation potential and income generation could accelerate this substitution effect, particularly in emerging markets grappling with currency debasement and capital controls.

Energy markets also influence crypto dynamics. Brent crude’s rebound to US$70/bbl, despite OPEC+ supply increases, underscores the inflationary pressures that have historically buoyed BTC. Ethereum benefits indirectly, as stable energy prices reduce miner capitulation risks—a concern during Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market.

Furthermore, Ethereum’s energy-efficient proof-of-stake model aligns with ESG mandates, granting it a regulatory advantage in jurisdictions that prioritise sustainability.

Strategic outlook: Navigating the dual narrative

For portfolio managers, the Bitcoin-Ethereum dichotomy demands nuanced allocation strategies. Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge against fiscal profligacy and currency debasement remains intact, particularly with US gross federal debt exceeding 130 per cent of GDP. Institutions seeking pure exposure to global liquidity expansion should prioritise BTC, leveraging derivatives to hedge against short-term volatility while accumulating during dips in the inflow ratio.

Ethereum, meanwhile, appeals to investors seeking alpha through participation in the protocol. The three per cent staking yield acts as a floor for total returns, with DeFi and NFT ecosystems offering asymmetric upside. A 60/40 BTC-ETH portfolio, rebalanced quarterly, could optimise risk-adjusted returns while capturing both monetary and utility premiums. Retail traders, conversely, may exploit Ethereum’s yield volatility through options straddles or basis trades, capitalising on protocol upgrade cycles.

Regulatory developments will loom large in Q3 and Q4 2025. The SEC’s impending rulings on spot Ethereum ETFs, coupled with MiCA compliance deadlines in Europe, could catalyse a US$200 billion inflow into compliant crypto products. Bitcoin’s derivatives market, now a US$73.59 billion ecosystem, may see regulatory convergence as the CFTC intensifies oversight, a double-edged sword that enhances legitimacy while squeezing unregistered exchanges.

In conclusion, the confluence of derivatives-driven speculation in Bitcoin and Ethereum’s yield revolution encapsulates crypto’s transition from fringe assets to mainstream infrastructure. While Bitcoin’s path hinges on macro resilience and institutional flows, Ethereum’s ascent depends on its ability to sustain yield premiums amid rising competition from layer-2 ecosystems.

Both assets, however, share a common destiny: redefining the storage and transfer of value in an era of unprecedented monetary experimentation. Investors who grasp this duality stand to navigate the volatility ahead with clarity, positioning themselves at the intersection of innovation and tradition.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-new-gold-standard-bitcoins-macro-hedge-role-amid-us-debt-and-trade-turmoil-20250709/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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DeFi Live Virtual Stream: How Global Macro Trends Might Affect Crypto in the Near Future

DeFi Live Virtual Stream: How Global Macro Trends Might Affect Crypto in the Near Future

DeFI Live is a 2-day experience hosted virtually and in-person in London, showcasing the hottest DeFi Projects and biggest tech breakthroughs in the works. There were over 700 attendees, 200 speakers and more than 2000 global audiences at the event.

In this panel titled ‘How Global Macro Trends Might Affect Crypto in the Near Future’, the following speakers were present to share their insights: William Ralston Saul – Co-Founder, InCryptoHub; Barry Herbst – Snr VP Strategic Partnerships & growth. The Elliot; Anndy Lian – Chairman. Asia BigONE Exchange and Dan Beurthe – Director of communications, Zebu.

This panel discussion covered several trending topics and issues:
– Effects of over-regulation on personal and business banking activities
– Effects of inflation
– Effects of the developments in technology
– Thoughts on traditional companies moving into the tokenised space
– Key driving forces behind adoption of blockchain technology
– NFTs: how they are viewed vs its true purpose
– Utility coins vs memecoins

It is not rocket science that regulatory costs will continue to climb and remain a top concern for bankers. This all adds cost, with consumers ultimately bearing the burden. New technology will aid this process. “With all the over-regulation happening with personal and business bank accounts, the move to have all your financial activities done on the blockchain is inevitable.” – William Ralston Saul

“Cryptocurrency empowers people to rethink their typical career life.” – Anndy Lian. Blockchain, the technology behind cryptocurrency, has also finally taken a step towards the mainstream. Cryptocurrency provides many incentives for entrepreneurs across the globe. It has made it easier for entrepreneurs to reach international markets rather than strictly sticking to the national markets.

Web 3.0 is the next stage of the web evolution that would make the internet more intelligent or process information with near-human-like intelligence through the power of AI systems that could run smart programs to assist users. The combination of Web 3.0 and crypto will change things. “When people realise that they are the product – their data is the product – Web3 will take over in terms of people owning their data using protocols, blockchains, and DApps.” – Barry Herbst.

“The true value of cryptocurrency is not the price; it is how we use blockchain to do good for everybody.” – Anndy Lian. This will depend on the future of blockchain technology and how we position it now. The hype may fade, but the technology will continue to evolve if we keep building. Anndy also mentioned that the trends can be meme coin for example. This is a trend that is easily relatable to new users. It can be Shiba or Kishu, as long as they build products that people can use and their community is strong, this has already fulfilled the utility portion of blockchain.

The adoption of blockchain technology, especially cryptocurrencies, is truly inevitable and it’s approaching at a speed faster than we think. This industry is growing larger by the day and we’re glad to have had this board of panellists discuss what our future could hold. Are you ready?

To find out more, view the full video at https://youtu.be/ufrdOKFErEY.

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Greater Bay Area Blockchain Week 2021: Macro Trends for Blockchain in Asia- Anndy Lian: “NFT is the hottest trend.”

Greater Bay Area Blockchain Week 2021: Macro Trends for Blockchain in Asia- Anndy Lian: “NFT is the hottest trend.”

GBA Blockchain Week Virtual Summit invited blockchain experts to their panel on the second day of their conference to talk about “Macro Trends for Blockchain in Asia”. The panel is moderated by Catherine Ross, Business Editor, Benzinga and with the following panellists: John Wang, Head of Eco Growth, Neo Global Development; Anndy Lian, Advisory Board Member, Hyundai DAC and Tony Tong, Chairman, Hong Kong Blockchain Association

“The trends are very obvious. Right now the hottest topics are NFT and DeFi. We do see new crypto plays like having the ability to borrow against your NFT collectables on DeFi platforms etc. I am also seeing promising growth in altcoin funds. I know a UK Digital Assets Management firm that is  providing Asian centric altcoin funds to their clients.” Anndy Lian, Advisory Board Member, Hyundai DAC comments.

Tony Tong, Chairman of Hong Kong Blockchain Association also added that crypto payments will get massive adaption. “I won’t be surprised within a couple of years in Hong Kong, we are going to be seeing 7-11 or other retail chains accepting crypto payments.”

The panel later also touch on China’s DCEP project that has been fuelling a sense of urgency on CBDCs over the last two years. Now that GBA, and Hong Kong in particular, were chosen as a testing ground for deploying the digital yuan the world’s attention is focused on this key region. Speakers and high-profile experts from Asia, Europe, and the US will converge to GBA Blockchain Week 2021 to discuss major opportunities and prospects of DCEP.

In the other panels, key topics include regulation, including Hong Kong’s game-changing framework for virtual asset exchanges and virtual banks; fintech, with major tech solution providers working together closely with incumbent financial institutions and companies; tech talent and education, with Shenzhen rivalling the West with its «New Silicon Valley» innovation hub status; the role of key tech hubs; cutting-edge urban solutions for smart cities and smart state, and more.

This event has brought in many other blockchain leaders such as Justin Sun, Founder Tron; Mance Harmon, Co-founder, Hedera; Roger Ver, Founder of Bitcoin.com; Brian Behlendorf, Executive Director, Hyperledger; Alex Mashinsky, Founder & CEO, Celsius Network.

Greater Bay Area Blockchain Week 2021 is the premier virtual event for an international audience passionate about technology, education, and business. A week-long event will convene thousands of online viewers to the brightest spot on today’s global financial map, and compliment GBA’s status of the world’s leading and most quickly developing business and technological cluster.

The event, including the core 2-day summit, will be Streamed Globally and in China from 30-31 March 2021.

The full video can be seen at https://youtu.be/12p7dg37BKI.

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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