Tag Archives: macro

Crypto and equities slide as geopolitical and macro pressures mount

Crypto and equities slide as geopolitical and macro pressures mount

Global financial markets are navigating treacherous waters today as multiple headwinds collide, pushing risk assets lower across the board. Bitcoin trades at US$77,388.34, down 0.96 per cent over the past 24 hours, while the broader cryptocurrency market capitalisation has slipped 1.34 per cent to US$2.57T.

This synchronised decline mirrors weakness in traditional equity markets, where the S&P 500 Index sits at 7,408.50, down 1.24 per cent; the Nasdaq Composite falls 1.54 per cent to 26,225.14; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average drops 1.07 per cent to 49,526.17. The correlation between digital assets and traditional risk markets has never been more evident as investors retreat from speculative positions amid mounting uncertainty.

The primary catalyst behind this broad-based sell-off is escalating geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran, which has sent shockwaves through energy markets and reignited inflation concerns. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping traffic, a development that has propelled Brent crude oil prices past US$110.50 per barrel.

President Trump’s recent warning to Tehran that the clock is ticking for a new deal has effectively ended a fragile, multi-month ceasefire, leaving traders grappling with the prospect of sustained energy price pressure. This geopolitical volatility feeds directly into bond markets, where the US 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated at 4.59 per cent, signalling persistent investor anxiety about sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.

Cryptocurrency markets face their own unique set of challenges beyond the macro backdrop. The recent advancement of the CLARITY Act through a Senate committee vote on May 17 triggered a textbook sell-the-news reaction, as traders who had positioned for regulatory clarity chose to liquidate leveraged positions rather than hold through potential volatility.

This profit-taking wave resulted in approximately US$980M in liquidations across crypto markets, effectively wiping out sentiment gains that had accumulated following the regulatory milestone. The episode underscores a maturing but still fragile market structure in which positive developments can paradoxically trigger sell-offs as overleveraged participants unwind positions.

Ethereum has emerged as a particular weak link in the crypto ecosystem, underperforming the broader market with a staggering 10.14 per cent decline over the past seven days compared to the overall market’s 6.25 per cent drop. Social sentiment analysis points to fading institutional buying demand for Ethereum treasury companies, suggesting that the narrative-driven investment flows that propelled ETH earlier in the year may be losing momentum.

Compounding this weakness is a dramatic 41 per cent collapse in spot trading volume over the past 24 hours, indicating dangerously thin liquidity that amplifies price swings and leaves the market vulnerable to cascading sell-offs from large orders.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture. The cryptocurrency trades below its US$81,752 200-day Simple Moving Average, confirming a bearish market structure that has persisted since recent highs. Immediate support rests at the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level near US$77,219, a threshold that has become the focal point for traders assessing near-term direction.

Should this level hold, price action may consolidate between US$77,219 and the 50 per cent Fibonacci level at US$78,284. A decisive break below support could trigger a test of the next key zone around US$75,000, with total market capitalisation potentially retesting US$2.49T. The market currently maintains elevated open interest at US$464B, indicating substantial leverage that could fuel further volatility in either direction.

Traditional equity markets face parallel pressures, particularly within the technology sector, which has driven much of the recent market rally. Following an anticlimactic summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping over the weekend, traders have pivoted back to energy-driven inflation risks that threaten corporate margins and consumer spending power.

The tech sector undergoes significant rebalancing today as optical component maker Lumentum Holdings officially joins the Nasdaq-100 Index, replacing CoStar Group. Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks that experienced a historic melt-up earlier in the month now face compressed valuations, with Intel down six per cent, Advanced Micro Devices falling 5.7 per cent, and Micron Technology declining 6.6 per cent as policy uncertainties weigh on near-term outlooks.

Looking ahead, market participants brace for a highly volatile period with multiple catalysts on the horizon. The release of Federal Open Market Committee minutes on May 20 stands as the most immediate trigger, offering potential clarity on the central bank’s consensus regarding balance sheet runoffs and restrictive interest rates. Any hawkish surprises could reinforce the current risk-off sentiment and push assets lower.

Wall Street also eagerly awaits first-quarter financial numbers from Nvidia, the artificial intelligence bellwether whose results will help determine whether underlying technology demand justifies current valuations. Additionally, upcoming earnings from major US consumer retailers will provide crucial insights into how persistent inflation impacts disposable household income and spending patterns.

The current market environment demands vigilance from investors across all asset classes. Bitcoin must defend the US$75K to US$76K support band to prevent a deeper correction, while the total crypto market capitalisation needs to reclaim its US$2.56T pivot point to signal stabilisation. Traditional markets require energy prices to stabilise and geopolitical tensions to de-escalate before sustainable rallies can resume.

The interconnection between digital assets and traditional markets has never been more pronounced, with an 80 per cent thirty-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 indicating that crypto increasingly moves as a risk asset rather than the uncorrelated store of value once promised. As traders navigate this challenging landscape, the coming days will prove crucial in determining whether current weakness represents a healthy consolidation or the beginning of a more significant correction.

I view this market pullback as a necessary reset rather than a structural breakdown. The 0.96 per cent decline in Bitcoin and 1.34 per cent drop in total crypto market cap reflect prudent risk management by institutional participants who recognise that macro headwinds cannot be ignored. The US$980M in liquidations, while painful for overleveraged traders, actually strengthens market foundations by removing excess speculation.

I believe the US$77,219 Fibonacci support level will hold because the fundamental thesis for digital assets remains intact despite short-term volatility. The advancement of the CLARITY Act represents genuine regulatory progress that will benefit the ecosystem in the long term, even if traders initially reacted with profit-taking.

The 80 per cent correlation between crypto and traditional markets over 30 days should not alarm long-term believers in decentralisation. This convergence actually validates cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class that responds to the same macroeconomic forces as equities and commodities.

When Bitcoin trades in lockstep with the Nasdaq during periods of geopolitical stress, it demonstrates market maturity rather than failure. The key distinction remains that Bitcoin operates on a fixed supply schedule independent of central bank policy, a feature that will drive renewed interest once inflation concerns peak and monetary policy pivots.

I expect the FOMC minutes release on May 20 to provide clarity that reduces uncertainty rather than amplifying it. Markets hate ambiguity more than bad news, and clear guidance from the Federal Reserve could stabilise sentiment across all risk assets. The path forward requires patience and discipline from market participants. Short-term volatility will persist as geopolitical developments unfold and economic data releases challenge consensus expectations.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-and-equities-slide-as-geopolitical-and-macro-pressures-mount-20260518/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin’s US$74K surge: Institutional conviction or macro mirage?

Bitcoin’s US$74K surge: Institutional conviction or macro mirage?

Bitcoin climbed 5.38 per cent to US$74,532.74 over the last 24 hours, outpacing a broader market rally and signalling renewed conviction among institutional participants. This move did not occur in isolation. Bitcoin now shows a 94.5 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 and a 64.0 per cent correlation with Gold, underscoring how macro forces increasingly steer digital asset price action.

The primary engine behind this advance remains spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which recorded their largest weekly total since early January. When traditional finance channels allocate capital at this scale, the market listens. Yet the strong link to equities invites a deeper question: whether Bitcoin still functions as an independent store of value or merely amplifies global risk sentiment.

My view leans toward the latter for now, and that distinction matters for how we interpret both the rally and its sustainability.

Institutional demand drove the narrative last week with US$1.1 billion flowing into crypto investment products, the strongest weekly tally since January. Bitcoin captured US$871 million of that total, demonstrating focused appetite for the flagship asset. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust alone absorbed US$612 million in a single day, a clear signal that large allocators continue to accumulate on strength. These flows matter because spot ETF buying translates directly into on-chain demand, tightening available supply, and supporting higher prices.

However, this mechanism also concentrates influence among a handful of large issuers. While the price impact is undeniable, the centralisation of custody and voting power within these structures runs counter to the decentralisation ethos that originally defined the asset class. For investors who value self-sovereign control, this tension warrants attention even as we acknowledge the bullish price implications.

Macro sentiment provided the catalyst that amplified ETF-driven demand. Easing geopolitical tensions around Iran and softer US inflation data encouraged a risk-on shift across global markets. At the same time, total derivatives open interest rose 10.85 per cent to US$469.39 billion, indicating fresh capital and leveraged positioning entering the market.

The average funding rate sits at a neutral +0.00018581 per cent, which suggests bulls have not yet overcrowded the trade. This balance between conviction and caution defines the current tape. Macro relief opened the door, while rising open interest shows trader commitment, yet it also heightens the risk of sharp liquidations if sentiment reverses. I watch funding rates and open interest closely because they often foreshadow volatility spikes that can erase gains faster than they appeared.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance near the recent swing high at US$75,988. The key near-term trigger remains the persistence of ETF inflows. If price holds above US$73,388, which marks the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level, the path opens for a retest of the US$75,000 to US$75,988 zone. A daily close above US$75,000 would confirm breakout momentum and likely invite follow-through buying.

Conversely, a break below US$71,780, the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci level, would signal deeper consolidation and potentially trigger stop losses. The structure favours bulls, but this area clusters profit-taking orders and leveraged shorts, so expect two-way volatility as the market probes these levels. I prioritise the daily close because intraday wicks often mislead, while closing prints reflect genuine conviction.

Broader market action reinforced the risk-on tone. The S&P 500 rose 1.02 per cent to close at 6,886.24, breaking above its 100-day moving average. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.23 per cent to 23,183.74, led by a sharp rebound in technology giants. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.63 per cent to reach 48,218.25, turning positive for the 2026 calendar year. The Russell 2000 surged 1.52 per cent to 2,670.49, showing small caps participated in the rally.

Overseas, the Nikkei 225 faced early pressure but recovered late in the session, still tracking a year-to-date gain of roughly 13 per cent. The FTSE 100 edged lower in morning trade, testing critical Fibonacci resistance around 10,579. Commodities reflected shifting sentiment as Brent Crude fell 1.9 per cent to US$97.46 a barrel, paring some of its recent spike above US$100, driven by the Hormuz blockade. Gold rose 0.25 per cent to approximately US$4,779.20, holding technical support near the US$4,700 level. The US 10 Year Treasury Yield eased slightly to 4.29 per cent, though it remains elevated due to inflation fears linked to the Middle East conflict.

Specific market movers highlighted the AI and growth narrative. Oracle jumped 7.25 per cent to US$155.62 following strong earnings sentiment and AI-driven growth. Palantir climbed four per cent after ARK Investment Management added significantly to its position. Thomson Reuters advanced 5.07 per cent on AI integration news and analyst upgrades. Beyond Meat surged 10.63 per cent while Real Messenger experienced a massive 475 per cent spike in highly volatile trading. Micron dipped 2.12 per cent, signalling some persistent unease in the semiconductor supply chain.

Indian markets were closed on 14 April for Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Jayanti. In Europe, the pan-European STOXX 600 is expected to continue its rally through 2026, targeting 623 points by year’s end. Market participants also watch today’s Producer Price Index data, following March’s CPI, which showed easing but still elevated inflation. These cross-asset moves matter because Bitcoin rarely decouples for long when macro data shifts.

My perspective synthesises these threads. The ETF-driven rally is real and powerful, yet the 94.5 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 suggests Bitcoin currently trades as a high beta risk asset rather than an uncorrelated hedge. That does not diminish the opportunity, but it reframes the risk.

Institutional flows provide a solid floor, but they also tether price action to traditional market sentiment and regulatory developments. I value the liquidity and accessibility that ETFs bring, yet I remain mindful that self-custody and protocol-level innovation represent the long-term foundation of the ecosystem.

For traders, the setup favours upside if US$73,388 holds and ETF inflows persist. For longer-term participants, the question extends beyond price to whether this wave of adoption strengthens or dilutes the network’s decentralisation. Both views can coexist, but clarity about your own objectives prevents confusion when volatility returns.

The combination of institutional demand and macro relief has propelled Bitcoin higher, but vigilance remains essential. Markets reward preparation more than prediction, and in this environment, that means tracking flows, respecting technical levels, and maintaining flexibility as new data arrives.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoins-us74k-surge-institutional-conviction-or-macro-mirage-20260414/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

SEC gives crypto win, markets don’t care: Why macro forces just crushed US$200M in Bitcoin

SEC gives crypto win, markets don’t care: Why macro forces just crushed US$200M in Bitcoin
The convergence of escalating Middle East tensions, stubborn inflation, and unyielding central bank policies has created a treacherous environment for investors across asset classes. From the trading floors of Wall Street to the digital exchanges powering cryptocurrency markets, fear has taken hold as traders grapple with the prospect of prolonged economic uncertainty.

The numbers tell a sobering story. Traditional equity indices posted modest declines, but the magnitude of these losses masks the underlying turbulence. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3 per cent to 6,606.49, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite mirrored this decline, also falling 0.3 per cent to 22,090.69. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared slightly worse, shedding 0.4 per cent to close at 46,021.43. These movements occurred against the backdrop of triple witching, the quarterly expiration of stock options, futures, and other derivatives estimated at a staggering US$5.7T. Such events typically amplify volatility, and today proved no exception.

The cryptocurrency market experienced even more pronounced stress. Digital assets fell 0.81 per cent over 24 hours, with the total market capitalisation dropping to US$2.42T. Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, tumbled below the psychologically important US$70,000 threshold. More than US$142M in Bitcoin long positions faced liquidation within a single day, forcing leveraged traders out of the market and accelerating the downward spiral. What makes this selloff particularly noteworthy is the 92 per cent correlation between cryptocurrency prices and gold, suggesting that digital assets are increasingly behaving like traditional inflation hedges rather than the high-growth technology bets they once were.

The root cause of this market-wide anxiety traces back to two interconnected factors. First, the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish message on March 19, holding rates steady at 3.50 per cent to 3.75 per cent while upgrading its inflation forecasts. The European Central Bank adopted a similarly cautious stance. These decisions reflect central bankers’ growing concern about sticky inflation, particularly as energy prices surge due to geopolitical disruptions. Second, tensions in the Middle East have intensified, with conflicts threatening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.

Oil markets have reacted predictably to these developments. West Texas Intermediate crude, after spiking on news of the Hormuz disruptions, retreated 1.7 per cent to US$93.95 a barrel on Friday. This pullback provided some relief to Asian markets, where the MSCI Asia Pacific Index managed a 0.2 per cent gain as oil prices stabilised. Japanese markets remained closed for a holiday, sparing traders from the day’s volatility. European equities faced steeper losses, with the STOXX 600 falling 0.7 per cent as tech and utility stocks bore the brunt of energy price pressures. The index closed at 598.00, reflecting the continent’s particular vulnerability to energy supply disruptions.

Bond markets sent mixed signals about investor sentiment. The US 10-year Treasury yield edged slightly lower to 4.25 per cent, suggesting some flight to safety. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield climbed to 3.79 per cent, indicating that traders expect the Federal Reserve to maintain higher rates for longer. This yield curve dynamic reinforces the challenging environment for risk assets, as borrowing costs remain elevated and the prospect of near-term rate cuts fades.

Amid this macroeconomic turbulence, cryptocurrency markets received a glimmer of positive news that ultimately failed to move the needle. On March 18, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued joint guidance classifying major tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum as digital commodities. This regulatory clarity represents a structural positive for the industry, potentially paving the way for broader institutional adoption. This development was completely overshadowed by macro fears, demonstrating that cryptocurrency markets remain highly sensitive to traditional financial conditions despite their decentralised nature.

The immediate outlook hinges on several critical support levels. Bitcoin must defend the US$69,000 to US$70,000 zone to prevent further deterioration. Ethereum needs to hold above US$2,150. A failure at these levels, combined with another spike in the US Dollar Index, could push the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation toward US$2.3T. Derivatives open interest currently stands at US$416.64B, and any continued decline from this level would reduce systemic squeeze risk but would likely be accompanied by further price weakness.

Interestingly, not all market segments moved in lockstep. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller US companies, bucked the negative trend, posting a 0.65 per cent gain to 2,494.71. This outperformance suggests that domestic-focused smaller firms may be better positioned to weather geopolitical storms than their multinational counterparts, which face greater exposure to international supply chain disruptions and currency fluctuations.

The path forward remains fraught with uncertainty. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on May 6 and 7 will provide crucial insights into whether policymakers maintain their hawkish stance or pivot in response to economic data. Any escalation in Middle East conflicts could send oil prices higher, further complicating the inflation picture and forcing central banks to keep rates elevated. A de-escalation of tensions combined with softer inflation data could restore some confidence to risk assets.

For now, investors face a difficult calculus. The regulatory progress in cryptocurrency markets offers long-term promise, but short-term sentiment remains dictated by interest rates and oil prices. Traditional equity markets show resilience but lack conviction. The correlation between digital assets and gold suggests a fundamental shift in how investors perceive cryptocurrency, and this new identity as an inflation hedge provides little comfort when both assets face pressure from the same macroeconomic forces.

The question every market participant must answer is whether current valuations adequately reflect these risks or if further adjustment lies ahead. With Bitcoin testing critical support levels, equity indices hovering near session lows, and bond yields signalling prolonged monetary restraint, the coming weeks will prove decisive in determining whether this represents a temporary setback or the beginning of a more sustained market correction. 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j