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Bitcoin touched US$81,000: Was that a rally or a forced repricing?

Bitcoin touched US$81,000: Was that a rally or a forced repricing?

Bitcoin just reminded the world why it remains the most volatile macro asset of this era. In less than a week, the coin climbed from below US$65,000 to above US$81,000, a gain of more than 25 per cent that marks its highest level since mid-May, and one report even frames the move as a 28 per cent rally.

I have covered many advances in crypto, and this one stands apart because it did not grow from slow accumulation. It grew from forced buying. Buyers squeezed every bearish position they could find, and the result is a settled but still confident market, with Bitcoin trading at US$78,928.79, up a modest 0.22 per cent over the past 24 hours.

The squeeze in numbers

The anatomy of the squeeze reads like a textbook. As price broke US$80,000, derivatives trackers show the market wiped US$260 million in Bitcoin shorts within four hours, and one analysis counts about US$650 million in shorts across all crypto assets in a single day.

Another tally puts Bitcoin short liquidations over 24 hours at around US$282 million, which accounts for about 62 per cent of all crypto short wipes. These numbers tell a simple story. Traders bet against the breakout with borrowed money, but the price refused to stop, and exchanges closed those bets at a loss. Each closure forced a buy order into the market, and each buy order pushed price into the next cluster of bets. That feedback loop, not organic demand alone, carried Bitcoin to its strongest peak in months.

Scarcity meets a cooling tape

The charts now display a market that has steadied after the violence. Bitcoin trades at US$78,928.79 with a market capitalisation of US$1.58 trillion, and its 24-hour trading volume of US$46.62 billion fell 16.45 per cent as the burst exhausted some participants.

The latest daily candle records a high of US$81,235.03 and a low of US$77,872.52, indicating the market tested the breakout zone before stepping back. Supply data adds weight to the bull argument. The circulating supply already stands at 20.07 million coins, out of a hard cap of 21 million, and treasury holdings account for 1.34 million Bitcoin.

The fully diluted valuation totals US$1.65 trillion, and the volume-to-market cap ratio of 2.94 per cent indicates active but not panicked turnover. An asset that has already issued almost all of its coins leaves little room for new supply to absorb waves of forced or institutional buying.

The macro backdrop

No such move happens in a vacuum, and this one arrived with a powerful macro tailwind. The United States Treasury decided to roughly double its long-term bond buybacks from about US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion per operation, and many investors interpreted that decision as a sign of growing fiscal stress. The reaction followed a familiar pattern.

The dollar weakened, and capital moved into scarce assets, a shift that one Asian business daily described as money leaving the dollar. Gold advanced to levels unseen in months, near US$4,700 an ounce, and Bitcoin joined it as the other major asset with a capped supply. I see this part of the rally as the most durable because it does not depend on leverage. It grows out of governments that keep expanding their debts and investors who keep searching for assets that those governments cannot print.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs contributed a second layer of real demand. Nearly US$2 billion entered these funds over five days, and this flow amplified the impact of forced short covering. Futures traders triggered the first buys, and ETF issuers then had to source coins for their creations. When two types of buyers chase the same limited supply, prices move fast.

Ethereum and the broader complex

The rest of the crypto market followed the leader, yet with a slightly tired posture. Ethereum now trades at US$2,454.44 after a 0.95 per cent dip over the past 24 hours, and its chart mirrors Bitcoin’s pattern, with a rise from the US$1,600 zone to a recent high of US$2,529.99. Its market capitalisation stands at US$296.2 billion, and its 24-hour trading volume of US$17.56 billion fell 23.85 per cent, a sharper drop than Bitcoin printed.

Its fully diluted valuation of US$296.21 billion nearly matches its market cap because Ethereum has no hard cap, and its volume-to-market cap ratio of 5.92 per cent suggests higher churn than Bitcoin. I read Ethereum as a useful gauge of risk appetite. Ethereum still holds its number-two rank and a perfect profile score, but the fading volume suggests that traders now follow Bitcoin for the next directional cue.

The levels that decide the next move

The road ahead has clear signposts. Bitcoin now faces a resistance band from US$80,000 to US$82,000, which roughly coincides with the upper end of its previous May trading range. Analysts cite thin historical supply up to about US$84,000 to US$85,000, so a clean break above current resistance could produce another fast leg higher. The risk works in the other direction too.

If buyers fail to hold the coin above US$80,000, the market could consolidate back toward the high US$70,000s. Positioning data complicates the outlook because the advance mixed short liquidation with fresh long futures exposure. Those new longs support continuation, but they also create fuel for another sharp flush if macro data or ETF flows fade. The next US inflation report and the bond market’s reaction are the most likely catalysts for either an extension or a mean reversion.

My view

My view is that this rally carries more substance than a pure squeeze, yet it also brings real fragility. The combination of a US$260 million short wipe inside four hours, a US$4 billion bond buyback programme, gold at US$4,700, and US$2 billion of ETF inflows over five days forms a coherent macro picture rather than a random spike.

If Bitcoin holds above the high US$70,000s and digests selling near US$80,000 to US$82,000, I would call this a meaningful regime shift. If fiscal worries or fund flows reverse, the same leverage that fuelled the spike will deepen the pullback. Either way, the coming weeks reward traders who watch funding rates, ETF flows, and the US$80,000 line with equal attention.

Meanwhile, let’s wait for the Asian markets to open. I will continue to monitor the situation.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-touched-us81000-was-that-a-rally-or-a-forced-repricing-20260826/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The US$46,300 question: How low can Bitcoin go before buyers return

The US$46,300 question: How low can Bitcoin go before buyers return

Bitcoin currently faces a highly complex market environment that puzzles many seasoned investors. The premier digital asset struggles to break above the US$70,000 price level last observed in May. A closer look at market indicators reveals deep underlying weakness despite favourable macroeconomic conditions.

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index calculates the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance to estimate buying or selling pressure from the United States market. This specific index has stayed negative for 90 consecutive days. At the time of writing, the index stood at -0.1066 per cent.

A negative reading indicates that the asset trades at a lower price on Coinbase than on Binance. This persistent discount highlights a profound lack of domestic buying interest. This prolonged negative premium is a glaring warning sign for the broader cryptocurrency sector. Smart money clearly anticipates further downside risk and refuses to accumulate more digital assets at current valuations.

This steep decline occurred while broader financial markets celebrated new record highs. The Relative Strength Index remained largely below the neutral level, reflecting prevailing bearish sentiment. Bollinger Bands further supported the volatility that prevented the price from hitting a high bullish threshold. Even massive accumulation by large holders failed to reverse the downward trend.

Whale wallets bought 54,000 more coins since mid-June, but the price action ignored this aggressive accumulation. Buy-side support below the current price continues to erode rapidly. A significant concentration of buy orders below the market existed earlier, especially in June. This created a solid floor because buyers were prepared to absorb selling pressure if the asset dropped toward those levels.

Market participants have now removed or shifted many of those bids lower, leaving fewer orders directly beneath the price. The market liquidity buffer has weakened significantly with less buy-side support to cushion further declines. I consider this lack of underlying bid depth a major structural vulnerability. Order book dynamics clearly show that large players are stepping away from defending current valuation levels.

The digital currency had nearly everything going its way this week but remains on track to finish roughly three per cent lower. This divergence strikes a particularly discordant note, given the asset’s reputation as a high-beta proxy for technology stocks. Wall Street pushed to fresh record highs as inflation cools and traders dial back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

These conditions normally favour speculative assets. The digital currency fell from around US$65,000 on Monday to US$62,470 by Friday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 closed the week approximately one per cent higher during the exact same period.

Last week produced a clean dovish signal, combining cooler inflation with a weakening labour market, as reflected in favourable producer price index and jobless claims data. This refusal to follow traditional equities is deeply concerning for momentum traders. This distinct decoupling suggests that internal market mechanics currently overpower external macroeconomic stimuli. The asset faces its own distinct demand problem, setting it apart from the broader stock market rally.

Michael Saylor serves as the executive chairman at Strategy, which holds the record as the largest public company holding this asset. He offered the clearest explanation for this divergence earlier this month. Saylor noted that an enormous amount of capital is currently flowing into artificial intelligence infrastructure. Companies such as Alphabet, Meta, and SpaceX represent the largest near-term headwinds for the digital currency.

The premier cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence currently compete for the exact same speculative and institutional capital. Artificial intelligence is winning this battle for investor attention right now. This massive capital rotation explains why the digital currency refuses to participate in the broader equity rally. I believe this technological distraction will continue suppressing digital asset prices until the artificial intelligence hype cycle naturally cools down.

Institutional investors simply prefer the tangible revenue growth of technology giants over the speculative store-of-value proposition during uncertain economic times. This sector rotation severely limits the liquidity available to alternative assets seeking robust capital inflows. Wall Street allocates billions to data centres rather than decentralised ledger networks.

Exchange-traded funds further illustrate this lack of institutional enthusiasm. United States spot exchange-traded funds recorded US$5.48 billion in net outflows in 2026. These funds have only recovered US$459.6 million so far in August, as of August 14. This massive capital exodus confirms that large funds are reducing their exposure.

The digital currency formed a smaller bear pennant around US$60,000 to US$65,000 since the June selloff. This formation represents another bearish continuation pattern that technical analysts monitor closely. A decisive break below the rising support of this pennant could accelerate the existing flag breakdown. The measured move points toward approximately US$46,300.

That calculation puts the broader downside target zone at roughly US$45,000 to US$52,000. I expect the market to test these lower support levels before finding any meaningful long-term stability. Traders must respect these technical breakdown signals and adjust their risk management strategies to protect their portfolios from sudden drawdowns. Chart patterns rarely lie, and this specific setup screams further downside action for anyone paying close attention.

The broader economic backdrop adds another layer of complexity to this situation. The United States national debt currently nears US$40T. This massive fiscal burden forces the government to issue more bonds, which drains liquidity from the financial system.

I argue that this expanding debt ceiling inherently restricts the amount of excess capital available for highly speculative assets. The combination of massive artificial intelligence investments and soaring national debt creates a perfect storm that suppresses digital asset valuations. Investors must recognise that the digital currency no longer moves in lockstep with traditional risk assets.

Market participants should prepare for increased volatility and potentially lower prices in the coming weeks. Prudent traders will likely hedge their portfolios against these impending macroeconomic shocks. The digital asset must overcome these significant structural headwinds before it can resume its historical upward trajectory. Careful observation of order book depth will provide the next major clue. Global liquidity constraints will dictate the next major move.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-us46300-question-how-low-can-bitcoin-go-before-buyers-return-20260817/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The market is pricing in regulatory clarity that does not exist yet. Why crypto is fragile?

The market is pricing in regulatory clarity that does not exist yet. Why crypto is fragile?

The crypto market woke up Wednesday morning with a modest but telling 1.08 per cent gain, pushing total market capitalisation to US$2.19 trillion. On the surface, that number looks unremarkable. Dig a little deeper, though, and you find a market that has tethered itself almost entirely to a single narrative: the belief that Washington is finally about to hand digital assets a coherent regulatory framework. The 85 per cent correlation between crypto and the S&P 500 tells you everything you need to know about where this move originates. This is not a grassroots rally driven by organic demand. This is a macro-driven trade, and it lives or dies on whether the Clarity Act delivers what traders have been pricing in for weeks.

The anticipation around the Clarity Act has consumed social channels and trading desks alike. Analysts have drawn direct lines between Bitcoin forming a falling wedge pattern and what they describe as the legislation entering its final phase. Whether or not you trust technical chart patterns, the psychology here is unmistakable. Traders want a reason to commit capital, and regulatory clarity represents the single biggest unlock for institutional money that has sat on the sidelines for years. Bitcoin dominance dipped slightly as fresh capital entered the broader market, suggesting that participants are not just buying the safe haven. They are spreading risk across the ecosystem because they believe the regulatory umbrella will extend beyond Bitcoin.

That conviction shows up most vividly in the altcoin rotation. I see quite a few of them surging by 30-70 per cent, and some with over 8,000 per cent volume explosion. These are not gentle, measured allocations. These are aggressive, speculative bets from traders who believe the macro and regulatory backdrop has shifted enough to justify chasing leveraged returns in higher-beta assets. The Altcoin Season Index, at 51, confirms that the environment remains balanced rather than euphoric, while the directional flow is clear. Money is rotating out of cash and into risk. That rotation amplifies the headline gain and gives the market a sense of momentum that a 1 per cent move alone would never convey.

Now here is where the crypto story and the equity story become inseparable. US markets closed mixed on Tuesday evening, revealing a powerful undercurrent that crypto traders cannot ignore. The Dow Jones surged 537.24 points, or 1.03 per cent, to close at 52,747.32. The S&P 500 added 15.60 points, or 0.21 per cent, to finish at 7,428.78. But the Nasdaq Composite slipped 55.17 points, or 0.22 per cent, to 24,876.91, as the PHLX Semiconductor Index plummeted 4.5 per cent in a single session. Investors hammered AI and chip names over mounting worries about excessive data centre capital expenditures. Meanwhile, healthcare gained 2.33 per cent and consumer staples rose 1.96 per cent, with seven of 11 primary S&P 500 sectors closing in the green. Sherwin-Williams spiked 8 per cent on a strong Q2 earnings beat, and defensive anchors like Boeing, Coca-Cola, IBM, Salesforce, and Amgen all rallied 5 per cent or more to prop up the Dow. The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index hit fresh record highs. This is a market rotating away from concentrated tech risk and into breadth. Crypto, with its 85 per cent correlation to the S&P 500, rides this same wave.

The macro backdrop adds another layer of complexity. Brent Crude collapsed 4.83 per cent to settle at US$84.09 a barrel, while WTI Crude fell 4.06 per cent to US$79.26, marking the worst three-day stretch for global energy benchmarks since April 2020. The trigger was a mutual pause in hostilities and diplomatic talks regarding the Strait of Hormuz between the US and Iran. Early Wednesday Asian trading saw a minor 4 per cent rebound following reported regional skirmishes, but the directional damage was done. Lower oil prices eased inflation fears, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield down to 4.60 per cent. That declining yield environment supports risk assets, including crypto. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 90.8 in July from 92.2 in June, missing the consensus projection of 92.0. Households cited inflation fatigue and emerging labour market pessimism. That softening consumer backdrop reminds us that the real economy has not fully caught up to the optimism trading desks are expressing.

The international picture reinforces how interconnected this moment has become. South Korea’s KOSPI index triggered a circuit breaker on Wednesday morning as the unwind in AI chips hammered Asian tech corridors. Samsung suffered one of its worst single-day drops in nearly 20 years amid domestic capital constraints and rising competition from Chinese equipment suppliers. Australia’s ASX 200 pointed toward positive territory, buoyed by relief from lower global oil prices. The contagion from the semiconductor selloff is real, and it reminds crypto participants that their 85 per cent correlation to equities means they cannot escape global risk-off episodes.

Looking ahead, the final days of July carry an extraordinary concentration of catalysts. The Federal Reserve delivers its rate decision on Wednesday afternoon under new Chair Kevin Warsh at his second meeting. Most participants expect a hold, but the market is scanning for hawkish forward guidance given Warsh’s strong stance against inflation. Microsoft and Meta report quarterly results late Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. US Q2 GDP and PCE Inflation data both land before the week concludes. Any of these events could shift the risk appetite on which crypto currently depends.

For the crypto market specifically, the technical picture frames the near-term path. The market is testing the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci resistance at US$2.21 trillion. A confirmed break above that level could propel total capitalisation toward the swing high of US$2.26 trillion. Failure at resistance may trigger a retest of the 50 per cent retracement and pivot support at US$2.15 trillion. The Clarity Act outcome sits at the centre of this equation. If it delivers genuine regulatory structure, the breakout scenario gains conviction. If it disappoints or delays, the market loses its primary narrative and faces a painful unwind of speculative positioning.

It’s fragile. The uptick we see today rests on regulatory hopes and rotational buying rather than structural shifts in demand. Conviction remains thin ahead of a definitive policy signal. The 85 per cent equity correlation suggests crypto traders are essentially macro traders right now, and the next 48 hours will test whether this rally has legs or collapses the moment a single catalyst misses expectations. The Clarity Act must deliver. Everything else is noise until it does.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-market-is-pricing-in-regulatory-clarity-that-does-not-exist-yet-why-crypto-is-fragile-20260729/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j