Wall street soars, crypto surges: 2025 market trends explained

Wall street soars, crypto surges: 2025 market trends explained

As I reflect on the state of global financial markets in mid-May 2025, I’m struck by the delicate balance of hope and caution that defines this moment. The numbers tell a story of resilience and volatility: Wall Street’s indices show mixed signals, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbing 0.7 per cent, the S&P 500 inching up 0.1 per cent, and the Dow Jones slipping 0.2 per cent.

Across the Atlantic, European markets are similarly subdued, with the FTSE 100, DAX, and Stoxx 600 all posting modest declines. Commodities like spot gold, Brent crude, and iron ore are trending downward, while Bitcoin, ever the wildcard, nudges up slightly to US$103,780.

These figures, while seemingly disparate, weave a narrative of a world grappling with the aftermath of a tumultuous economic period, buoyed by breakthroughs in US-China trade relations and tempered by lingering concerns about inflation, overbought markets, and shifting investor sentiment. As someone who’s spent years observing markets, I see this as a pivotal moment—one where opportunity and risk are two sides of the same coin.

Let’s start with Wall Street, where the mood feels cautiously optimistic. The recent news of slashed tariffs between the US and China has been a shot in the arm for investors. After months of trade war rhetoric and economic uncertainty, the agreement to reduce tariffs—US tariffs on Chinese goods dropping to 30 per cent from as high as 145 per cent, and China’s retaliatory tariffs falling to 10 per cent from 125 per cent—has sparked a rally that’s pushed the S&P 500 back into positive territory for 2025 for the first time since March.

The Nasdaq, driven by its tech giants, is now within striking distance of erasing its year-to-date losses, having surged 30 per cent from its April low. This turnaround is nothing short of remarkable, especially considering the headwinds of early 2025: fears of a US economic slowdown, tariff-induced inflation, and a tech sector battered by concerns over AI hype and overvaluation.

Yet, here we are, with stocks like Nvidia and Tesla leading the charge, each gaining over four per cent today after a five per cent surge yesterday. Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are also riding the wave, though Apple, Amazon, and Broadcom have hit a slight speed bump.

From my perspective, this tech-led rally is both exhilarating and unnerving. Nvidia’s dominance in the AI chip space and Tesla’s electric vehicle innovations have made them Wall Street darlings, but their meteoric rises raise questions about sustainability. The S&P 500’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signalling overbought conditions, a warning that the market may be due for a breather. I can’t help but feel a twinge of déjà vu, recalling past tech booms that promised endless growth only to stumble when valuations outpaced fundamentals.

Still, the broader economic context offers some reassurance. A government report showing US inflation at a four-year low in April suggests the Federal Reserve might have more room to manoeuvre, potentially pausing rate hikes or even signalling cuts later in 2025. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks will be crucial, as investors hang on his every word for clues about monetary policy. For now, I’m cautiously bullish on tech, but I’d be keeping a close eye on earnings reports and macroeconomic data to gauge whether this rally has legs.

Across the pond, European markets are less enthusiastic. The FTSE 100, DAX, and Stoxx 600 each slipped by 0.2 per cent to 0.5 per cent, reflecting a broader pullback after a strong run fuelled by optimism over global trade progress. The Stoxx 600’s decline was led by consumer goods and healthcare, though banks and industrials held up better, buoyed by rising bond yields and infrastructure hopes. Standout performers like Burberry, which soared 17 per cent after a stellar Q4 update, show that individual companies can still shine amid a lackluster market.

Conversely, Alstom’s 17 per cent plunge on weak guidance underscores the risks of disappointing investors in a jittery environment. As someone who’s always admired Europe’s economic diversity, I find this mixed performance unsurprising. The continent is navigating its own challenges—Germany’s industrial output is up, but the UK housing market is slowing, and Norway’s central bank is holding rates steady as inflation lingers above target.

The prospect of US tariffs easing is a positive, but European investors seem to be locking in gains rather than betting on a sustained rally. I’d look for opportunities in undervalued sectors like industrials, where long-term growth potential might outweigh short-term volatility.

Commodities paint a more sobering picture. Spot gold, down 0.1 per cent to US$3,182 per ounce, is stabilising after a 2.3 per cent drop that took it to a one-month low. This pullback, driven by more substantial bond yields and a resilient US dollar, has dented gold’s safe-haven appeal. Brent crude, falling 1.3 per cent to US$65.25 per barrel, is reeling from profit-taking and concerns about demand recovery, especially after a report showed US crude inventories rising significantly. Iron ore, down 0.6 per cent to US$101.15 per tonne, is holding up better, supported by optimism about Asian construction demand, particularly in China.

As someone who’s always viewed commodities as a barometer of global economic health, I know these declines signal caution. The US-China trade deal should, in theory, boost demand for oil and metals, but the market seems skeptical about the pace of recovery. Gold’s retreat, meanwhile, suggests investors are less worried about systemic risks than they were earlier in the year. I’d watch China’s industrial activity and OPEC+ discussions closely, as they’ll likely dictate the next moves for oil and metals.

Then there’s the crypto market, where Bitcoin and Ethereum are stealing the spotlight. Bitcoin, up 0.2 per cent to US$103,780, is flirting with its all-time high, driven by institutional buying despite retail interest lagging. Analysts predict a surge in retail activity if Bitcoin breaks US$109,350, a level that could trigger FOMO-driven buying. Ethereum, at US$2,616, has been the real standout, surging over 50 per cent in May and pushing its market dominance toward 10 per cent.

However, warning signs are flashing: Ethereum’s RSI has been at its most overbought level since May 2021, and a bearish divergence on the four-hour chart hints at a possible 10-15 per cent correction. As someone fascinated by crypto’s evolution, I see this as a classic case of exuberance meeting reality. Ethereum’s rally, fuelled by its growing role in decentralised finance and NFTs, is impressive, but overbought signals suggest a pullback could be imminent.

Still, some analysts view this as a “buy-the-dip” opportunity, with targets of US$3,500-US$3,800 if support holds. I’m intrigued by the institutional-retail dynamic—while retail investors have been net sellers of Bitcoin in 2025, institutions are piling in, signalling confidence in crypto’s long-term potential. Given its fundamentals, I’d be cautious about jumping in at these levels but would consider accumulating on a dip, especially in Ethereum.

Looking beyond the numbers, I’m struck by the broader implications of this moment. The US-China trade deal is a rare bright spot in a year marked by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. It’s a reminder that diplomacy, however imperfect, can move markets. But the deal’s success hinges on follow-through—will Trump and Xi Jinping build on this momentum, or will old rivalries resurface?

Meanwhile, Asian markets show signs of fatigue, with Japanese and Australian stocks dipping as the Wall Street rally loses steam. China’s tech sector, exemplified by Tencent’s robust revenue growth, is a bright spot, but the broader region seems to be pausing for breath.

As a global citizen, I’m hopeful that easing trade tensions will foster stability, but I’m realistic about the challenges ahead. Inflation, while cooling, remains a wildcard, and the Fed’s next moves will be critical. Retail investors, whether in stocks or crypto, navigate a market that rewards boldness but punishes complacency.

In conclusion, the markets in May 2025 feel like a tightrope walk—exhilarating, precarious, and full of potential. The tech rally, trade deal optimism, and crypto surge are reasons to be hopeful, but overbought signals, commodity declines, and European caution remind us that nothing is certain.

From my vantage point, this is a time to stay informed, diversify, and be ready for volatility. Whether it’s buying the dip in Ethereum, eyeing undervalued European industrials, or waiting for clarity on Fed policy, the opportunities are there for those who tread carefully. As always, the market mirrors human hope and fear, and right now, it’s reflecting both in equal measure.

 

Source: https://e27.co/wall-street-soars-crypto-surges-2025-market-trends-explained-20250515/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j

Current market dynamics: Equities, FX, commodities, fixed income, and cryptocurrencies

Current market dynamics: Equities, FX, commodities, fixed income, and cryptocurrencies

The interplay of macroeconomic indicators, corporate earnings, currency fluctuations, commodity surges, and cryptocurrency volatility creates a tapestry of opportunity and risk.

My perspective on the topics at hand—US equities under inflation scrutiny, China’s corporate earnings, the Japanese yen’s precarious position, commodity price spikes, rising bond yields, and cryptocurrency corrections—leans toward cautious optimism tempered by a keen awareness of potential headwinds.

Below, I weave together a comprehensive narrative grounded in the latest data, offering insights into how these elements might shape the financial world in the near term.

As exemplified by the S&P 500’s recent performance, the US equity markets are navigating a delicate balance. According to the University of Michigan’s data, the index’s early-week rally was undercut by a dip in consumer sentiment, which hit a six-month low.

This downtick, coupled with a rise in one-year inflation expectations to 3.5 per cent—a semiannual high—signals growing unease among American households. The consumer has been the backbone of US market resilience, driving economic growth despite persistent inflationary pressures. However, the softening confidence metric raises questions about the sustainability of this consumer-led momentum.

The New York Fed’s upcoming report on household debt and credit, due this week, will be a critical piece of the puzzle. Elevated debt levels or signs of credit strain could amplify market jitters, particularly if paired with disappointing earnings from retail giant Walmart, whose results on May 16 will serve as a barometer for consumer spending trends.

Across the Pacific, China’s corporate earnings are commanding attention. The week’s lineup is a who’s-who of tech and manufacturing heavyweights: SoftBank on May 13, followed by Tencent, Alibaba, Hon Hai Precision, and Sony on May 14, with Baidu and JD.com rounding out the slate on May 16. These reports are more than just financial snapshots; they are litmus tests for China’s economic recovery and its ability to navigate global trade tensions.

Recent improvements in US-China trade relations, including a 90-day tariff cut accord, have buoyed traditional markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging nearly 1,000 points. Yet, the implications for Chinese equities are nuanced. Strong earnings from tech giants like Tencent and Alibaba could signal robust domestic demand and technological innovation, bolstering investor confidence.

Conversely, any signs of weakness—whether from supply chain disruptions or regulatory pressures—could dampen sentiment, particularly given the global scrutiny on China’s economic policies.

In the foreign exchange markets, the Japanese yen is once again under the microscope as the USDJPY pair approaches 156. This level is significant, both technically and psychologically, as it tests the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) resolve to defend the yen. The yen’s weakness is partly a function of the US dollar’s strength, driven by expectations of persistent inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve.

The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, slated for May 13, will be pivotal. Forecasts suggest April’s CPI will hold steady at 2.4 per cent, matching March’s figure. A higher-than-expected reading could further strengthen the dollar, pushing USDJPY toward 160 and potentially prompting BoJ intervention.

Conversely, a softer CPI might ease pressure on the yen, offering temporary relief. I believe the yen’s trajectory hinges on the Fed’s signaling. If the CPI data fuels speculation of delayed rate cuts in 2025, the yen could face sustained depreciation, exacerbating Japan’s import costs and inflation challenges.

Commodities, meanwhile, are experiencing a renaissance. Silver’s six per cent surge and natural gas’s five per cent gain last week underscore a broader trend of renewed investor interest in tangible assets. Silver’s rally is particularly noteworthy, driven by industrial demand (notably in solar energy) and its role as a hedge against inflation. Natural gas, on the other hand, is benefiting from supply constraints and heightened geopolitical risks, particularly in energy markets.

These gains align with the broader narrative of inflation expectations, as evidenced by the University of Michigan’s data and the New York Fed’s one-year inflation outlook. Commodities will remain a focal point for investors seeking diversification amid equity market volatility and rising bond yields. However, the sustainability of these rallies depends on global demand dynamics and the trajectory of inflation, both of which remain uncertain.

Speaking of yields, the fixed income market is sending clear signals of inflationary concern. The 10-year US Treasury yield’s breach of 4.5 per cent reflects heightened expectations of persistent price pressures, as captured by the University of Michigan’s inflation survey. This uptick in yields is a double-edged sword: it strengthens the dollar and tightens financial conditions, but it also raises borrowing costs, potentially crimping corporate investment and consumer spending.

For bond investors, the calculus is shifting. The prospect of a Federal Reserve maintaining elevated rates into 2025 suggests that yields could climb further, particularly if CPI data surprises to the upside. My take is that fixed-income markets are at an inflection point. Investors must weigh the allure of higher yields against the risk of capital losses if inflation accelerates beyond current projections.

The cryptocurrency market, meanwhile, is a microcosm of broader market dynamics. Bitcoin’s retreat to US$102,000, down 1.7 per cent in 24 hours, follows a failure to sustain momentum above US$105,000. This correction comes after a 24 per cent rally over the past month, highlighting the crypto’s volatility.

Data from Alphractal points to profit-taking pressure near the US$106,000 resistance zone, with a potential drop to US$100,000 threatening US$3.4 billion in leveraged long positions. The looming CPI release adds another layer of uncertainty. A higher-than-expected inflation reading could bolster the dollar, exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin, while a lower figure might spark speculation of Fed rate cuts, fuelling a crypto rebound.

Bitcoin remains a high-beta asset, amplifying macroeconomic trends. Its divergence from equities, which rallied on US-China trade optimism, underscores its unique risk profile. Investors should approach Bitcoin with caution, mindful of its sensitivity to monetary policy shifts.

Ethereum, by contrast, is riding a wave of bullish sentiment. Its 40 per cent surge last week—its largest since December 2020—is driven by spot buying rather than leverage, as evidenced by a declining estimated leverage ratio (ELR) from 0.75 to 0.69. The influx of over 180,000 ETH into staking protocols signals strong confidence in Ethereum’s long-term value proposition, particularly as a backbone for decentralised finance (DeFi).

However, ETH faces technical resistance at the 200-day simple moving average, with US$2,850 as the next hurdle. Ethereum’s rally is more sustainable than Bitcoin’s, given its lower reliance on speculative leverage and its growing utility in blockchain ecosystems. That said, macroeconomic headwinds, such as a stronger dollar or rising yields, could cap its upside in the near term.

In synthesising these threads, my overarching view is one of cautious navigation. The US equity market’s reliance on consumer strength is under scrutiny, with inflation expectations and household debt levels as key variables. China’s earnings will provide critical insights into global growth prospects, while the yen’s fate hinges on US monetary policy.

Commodities offer a hedge but are not immune to demand shocks, and rising bond yields signal tighter conditions ahead. In the crypto space, Bitcoin and Ethereum reflect broader market tensions, with CPI data as the immediate catalyst.

As a journalist, I see opportunity in this volatility but urge investors to tread carefully, armed with data and a clear-eyed view of the risks. The financial markets are a chessboard, and every move counts.

 

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/current-market-dynamics-equities-fx-commodities-fixed-income-and-cryptocurrencies-20250513/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j

How CPI, retail sales, and Powell’s speech could shape Fed policy and market sentiment

How CPI, retail sales, and Powell’s speech could shape Fed policy and market sentiment

As we head into a pivotal week for the US economy and financial markets, a confluence of significant events is poised to shape expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and influence market sentiment in profound ways.

The upcoming release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales data, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday, and ongoing US trade negotiations with China and the UK are all critical pieces of this puzzle.

I’ll analyse how these developments might unfold, their potential economic implications, and how they could sway both the Fed’s monetary policy decisions and the broader market mood. This analysis will weave together the latest economic indicators, policy signals, and geopolitical dynamics to provide a comprehensive view of what’s at stake.

The economic barometers: CPI and retail sales data

The CPI and retail sales figures due this week are among the most important economic releases, serving as key barometers of inflation and consumer spending, two pillars of the Fed’s dual mandate to maintain price stability and maximise employment. These data points will set the tone for how markets and policymakers interpret the health of the US economy.

The Consumer Price Index measures changes in the prices consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, making it a primary indicator of inflation. If this week’s CPI report reveals a higher-than-expected uptick in prices, it would suggest that inflationary pressures remain stubbornly persistent.

This could unnerve the Fed, which has been wary of easing monetary policy prematurely only to see inflation reaccelerate. A hot CPI print might push back expectations for rate cuts, as the central bank would likely prioritise keeping inflation in check over stimulating growth.

Conversely, a softer-than-anticipated CPI reading—indicating that price pressures are easing—could bolster the case for monetary easing, particularly if paired with signs of economic slowdown elsewhere. Investors are already on edge, with bond markets pricing in rate cuts as early as July, per the latest weekly recap, and the 10-year Treasury yield lingering near 4.38 per cent, reflecting uncertainty about the Fed’s next move.

Recent economic reports cited in the recap underscore that inflation has been trending upward in the US, adding complexity to the outlook. This trend aligns with concerns raised by Fed Chair Jerome Powell about the inflationary impact of President Trump’s tariff policies, which I’ll explore further in the trade section. For now, it’s clear that a high CPI number could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, while a lower one might give policymakers room to consider rate cuts sooner.

Retail sales: A window into consumer health

Retail sales data, which tracks consumer spending across various sectors, offers a direct glimpse into the strength of the US consumer—a driving force of economic growth. Robust retail sales would signal that households are still spending freely despite higher prices and borrowing costs, suggesting resilience in the economy.

Such strength could lessen the urgency for rate cuts, as the Fed might see no immediate need to juice up an already healthy consumer base. On the flip side, a disappointing retail sales report—showing consumers tightening their belts—would raise red flags about economic momentum, potentially tilting the Fed toward easing to support growth.

The weekly recap hints at consumer fragility, noting that Americans are beginning to feel the pinch of tariffs as ships carrying tariffed goods arrive. This could dampen spending, especially if paired with rising inflation. Powell has also flagged declining consumer sentiment tied to trade policy uncertainty, which could foreshadow weaker retail sales.

The interplay between these data points will be crucial: strong sales with high inflation might keep the Fed on hold, while weak sales with moderating inflation could pave the way for cuts.

Powell’s speech: Decoding the Fed’s intentions

Following the CPI and retail sales releases, Jerome Powell’s Thursday speech will be a linchpin event, offering markets a chance to parse the Fed’s thinking on monetary policy.

With the Fed holding rates steady for three consecutive meetings and highlighting “elevated risks” to both inflation and unemployment, Powell’s words will carry outsized weight.

Dovish or Hawkish signals?

Powell’s tone will be everything. A dovish slant—where he expresses concern about economic slowdown or signals that inflation is under control—could ignite expectations for rate cuts, lifting equities and easing bond yields. Markets would interpret this as a green light for monetary support, especially if the week’s data leans soft.

However, a hawkish stance—emphasising persistent inflation or the need for sustained tightness—might temper those hopes, suggesting that rates will stay higher for longer. This could pressure stocks, already struggling near technical resistance levels (S&P 500 down 0.5 per cent, Nasdaq off 0.3 per cent, Dow down 0.2 per cent last week), and push yields upward.

Powell’s recent rhetoric offers clues. He’s underscored the Fed’s cautious, data-dependent approach, wary of acting too soon amid trade-driven uncertainties. The recap notes his focus on tariff-related risks, which could simultaneously hike inflation and slow growth—a stagflationary bind that complicates rate decisions.

How is the UK-US trade deal shaping cryptocurrency and stock market trends?

If Powell doubles down on this narrative Thursday, he might signal that the Fed is in a holding pattern, waiting for clearer evidence before pivoting. This wait-and-see posture could leave markets in limbo, amplifying volatility as traders grapple with mixed signals.

Trade talks: Tariffs, supply chains, and economic ripple effects

The US trade negotiations with China and a limited deal with the UK inject another layer of uncertainty into this week’s outlook. These talks could either mitigate or exacerbate pressures on inflation, growth, and market sentiment, depending on their outcomes.

US-China trade dynamics

The US-China trade saga has been a rollercoaster, with tariffs already disrupting supply chains and raising costs. Progress in this week’s talks—say, a rollback of tariffs or a broader agreement—would be a boon, easing inflationary pressures by lowering input costs and boosting business confidence.

This could reduce the need for Fed intervention, supporting growth organically and lifting market sentiment. Stocks might rally, and risk assets like Bitcoin (recently at US$104,077) could see further gains as uncertainty fades.

But the flip side is grim. If talks falter or new tariffs emerge, it would amplify the economic headwinds Powell has flagged. Higher costs would fuel inflation, while disrupted trade could crimp growth—echoing the stagflation fears he’s voiced.

The recap ties this directly to consumer impacts, noting tariffed goods hitting US shores. This scenario might nudge the Fed toward rate cuts to offset a slowdown, though persistent inflation could tie its hands. Markets would likely sour, with equities sliding and safe-haven flows propping up yields or crypto.

UK seal: Limited but symbolic

The limited UK trade deal raises questions about tariff relief and supply chain benefits. While less consequential than a China breakthrough, it could still ease costs for specific sectors, offering a modest tailwind.

However, its impact might be overshadowed by the China talks’ broader stakes. Powell’s focus on trade policy as a whole suggests the Fed will weigh these developments collectively, not in isolation.

Market sentiment: A week of reckoning

Markets are at a crossroads, with stocks pausing near resistance and investors bracing for this week’s catalysts. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow’s recent dips reflect caution, while Bitcoin’s climb past US$100,000 and Ethereum’s rally (up 37.14 per cent last week to US$2,600) hint at risk-on bets amid uncertainty. But sentiment hinges on how these events play out.

Scenarios and reactions

A “Goldilocks” outcome—moderate CPI, solid retail sales, dovish Powell, and trade progress—could spark a rally, with rate cut odds firming up for July and equities breaking resistance. Yields might dip as bonds gain favour, and crypto could ride the wave.

But a stagflationary mix—high CPI, weak sales, hawkish Powell, and trade tensions—might tank stocks, lift yields, and drive volatility. A middle ground, with mixed data and a noncommittal Fed, could keep markets range-bound, prolonging the wait for clarity.

Broader context: Trump’s policies and crypto

The recap’s nod to Trump’s Executive Order slashing drug prices (set for May 12, 2025) adds a wildcard. Early market reactions—Pfizer down 3.2 per cent, Johnson & Johnson off 2.8 per cent, XLV ETF dropping 1.9 per cent—suggest sectoral pressure that could spill over, nudging investors toward alternatives like Bitcoin and Ethereum (up 1.5 per cent and 1.2 per cent post-announcement).

Crypto’s resilience amid this, plus Ethereum’s Petra upgrade boosting scarcity, underscores its growing role as a sentiment barometer.

My view: A tense balancing act ahead

In my view, this week’s events will test the Fed’s resolve and market nerves. I expect CPI to come in slightly above consensus, reflecting tariff-driven price pressures, while retail sales hold steady but show early cracks from consumer caution.

Powell will likely strike a balanced tone, acknowledging risks but avoiding firm commitments—keeping rate cut bets alive but distant. Trade talks with China might yield incremental progress, though not enough to shift the tariff burden significantly, while the UK deal offers symbolic relief.

This mix suggests the Fed will stay pat for now, with rate cuts more likely in late 2025 unless growth falters sharply. Markets could seesaw—equities dipping on inflation fears, then recovering if Powell soothes nerves, while crypto holds firm as a hedge.

The bigger story is the Fed’s tightrope walk: tariffs and inflation threaten its mandate, but robust data might delay easing. Investors should buckle up for a bumpy ride as these forces collide.

 

Source: https://e27.co/how-cpi-retail-sales-and-powells-speech-could-shape-fed-policy-and-market-sentiment-20250512/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j