Tag Archives: moment

Anndy Lian: Crypto liquidity crisis approaches decisive December moment

Anndy Lian: Crypto liquidity crisis approaches decisive December moment

December marks a crucial period for the crypto liquidity crisis, according to Anndy Lian. He observes that while traditional markets are beginning to price in easing by the Federal Reserve, the cryptocurrency sector remains on edge.

The fear persists amid dwindling liquidity and significant outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), signaling potential challenges for the market ahead.

 

 

Such turbulence in the digital asset landscape draws parallels to previous episodes, notably when exchanges faced withdrawal freezes and sharp volume declines, compounding investor uncertainty. Furthermore, shifts in sentiment—such as those observed within the memecoin community—underscore the market’s sensitivity to evolving preferences and liquidity conditions.

 

Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/944178-crypto-liquidity-crisis/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

December’s make-or-break moment for crypto’s liquidity crisis

December’s make-or-break moment for crypto’s liquidity crisis

Equities and fixed income have rallied on mounting confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its December FOMC meeting. This expectation is reinforced not only by softening consumption data and declining consumer confidence but also by the accelerating political momentum behind Kevin Hassett as the leading candidate to assume the Fed chairmanship. Markets interpret Hassett’s likely appointment as a signal of a more responsive, disinflation-conscious policy framework, thereby pricing in an earlier and potentially deeper easing cycle than previously anticipated.

This macro recalibration is evident across multiple asset classes. US Treasury yields have declined modestly yet meaningfully, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.004 per cent, reflecting a repricing of terminal rate expectations. Concurrently, the US dollar has weakened, providing tailwinds for Asian currencies, which have strengthened amid a narrowing interest rate differential between the US and regional central banks, stable onshore Chinese liquidity conditions, and reduced geopolitical friction following the Xi-Trump dialogue. Chinese equities, particularly in the technology and AI sectors, have rallied in response, indicating that risk capital is already rotating toward markets perceived to offer both valuation support and policy tailwinds.

Despite this broad-based improvement in traditional risk sentiment, digital asset markets remain entrenched in a state of acute pessimism. The CMC Fear and Greed Index stands at 15 out of 100, categorically Extreme Fear, unchanged over the past 24 hours and only marginally above its yearly nadir of 10 recorded on November 22. This persistent fear is notable not for its intensity alone but for its durability in the face of improving macro fundamentals elsewhere.

The total crypto market capitalisation of 3.03 trillion dollars remains below both its 7-day 2.97 trillion dollars and 30-day 3.34 trillion dollars simple moving averages, confirming a technically bearish posture. The 14-day Relative Strength Index has plunged to 27.4, the lowest level since April 2025, signalling exhaustion in the prevailing downtrend. Historical precedent suggests that such oversold conditions, particularly when coinciding with shifts in macro liquidity, often precede short-term mean-reversion rallies.

Complicating the interpretation of this dislocation is the anomalous behaviour in crypto derivatives markets. Over the past 24 hours, perpetual futures volume surged 25.5 per cent to 1.3 trillion dollars, while spot volume contracted by 14.1 per cent to 268 billion dollars. This divergence typically indicates heightened speculative activity absent genuine conviction in directional price movement.

Supporting this interpretation, open interest in perpetual contracts declined by 1.89 per cent to 785 billion dollars, and funding rates collapsed by over 5,000 per cent to a negligible 0.0013 per cent. These metrics collectively suggest that traders are engaging in low-leverage, short-duration positioning rather than establishing sustained long or short exposure. The derivatives market is active, but it is not committed.

The central constraint on crypto market performance remains liquidity. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of 28 billion dollars this month, draining a critical source of structural demand precisely when macro liquidity conditions are most fragile. Until these flows stabilise or reverse, or until the Federal Reserve explicitly shifts to a more accommodative stance, crypto markets are likely to remain range-bound and sentiment-constrained.

The three trillion dollar market cap threshold has emerged as a key psychological and technical support level. A sustained breach below this mark could trigger algorithmic and leveraged liquidations, exacerbating downside pressure. A hold above this floor in conjunction with a dovish Fed decision could catalyse a significant liquidity-driven relief rally.

Kevin Hassett’s emergence as the presumptive next Fed Chair amplifies the probability of such an outcome. As Director of the National Economic Council since early 2025, Hassett has consistently advocated for a monetary policy that responds proactively to weakening demand indicators. His potential leadership signals a pivot toward a more traditional Taylor-rule-oriented framework, which would likely accelerate the pace of rate cuts in the event of further softening in labour or consumption data. For digital asset markets, which historically exhibit high beta to shifts in global liquidity conditions, this scenario represents a pivotal inflexion point.

In conclusion, the current market environment reflects a transitional regime characterised by divergent sentiment across asset classes. Traditional markets have already priced in near-term Fed easing, supported by both data and institutional expectations. Crypto markets, by contrast, remain mired in extreme fear despite being technically oversold and exhibiting heightened but uncommitted speculative activity. The critical variable bridging this gap is liquidity, which hinges on two near-term catalysts: the Fed’s December policy decision and the trajectory of Bitcoin ETF flows.

Should the Fed deliver a dovish pivot, particularly under Hassett’s anticipated stewardship, it would likely resolve the current sentiment dislocation and re-anchor crypto valuations to a more favourable macro liquidity regime. Until then, tactical positioning should emphasise monitoring these liquidity signals rather than assuming directional conviction.

 

Source: https://e27.co/decembers-make-or-break-moment-for-cryptos-liquidity-crisis-20251126/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin’s big moment: Can crypto shine as stocks stumble before Jackson Hole?

Bitcoin’s big moment: Can crypto shine as stocks stumble before Jackson Hole?

Investors face a muted global risk sentiment, with attention firmly fixed on the Jackson Hole symposium starting today and culminating in Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow.

This annual gathering in Wyoming often sets the tone for monetary policy, and with recent data showing a cooling US labour market and persistent inflation concerns, markets anticipate signals on potential rate cuts. President Donald Trump added fuel to the fire by demanding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook resign over mortgage fraud allegations, a move that underscores ongoing tensions between the administration and the central bank.

Such political pressure could amplify volatility, especially as the Fed navigates a delicate balance between supporting growth and taming prices. In my view, this environment highlights the fragility of investor confidence, where policy missteps could trigger sharper corrections, but also opens opportunities for resilient assets like cryptocurrencies to shine amid traditional market wobbles.

US stock markets extended their downward trajectory yesterday, reflecting waning enthusiasm for technology stocks, particularly in artificial intelligence sectors that drove much of the earlier rally. The S&P 500 dipped 0.24 per cent, the Nasdaq fell 0.67 per cent, and the Dow Jones eked out a modest 0.04 per cent gain.

Consumer discretionary stocks lagged significantly, dropping 1.2 per cent, as the administration broadened tariffs on steel and aluminum to include various consumer goods. This expansion aligns with Trump’s protectionist agenda, which he has touted as a way to bolster domestic manufacturing, but it risks escalating trade tensions and inflating costs for businesses and consumers alike.

These tariffs represent a double edged sword: they protect certain industries in the short term but could stifle broader economic momentum, especially if retaliatory measures from trading partners emerge. Recent data from Schwab’s market update shows major indexes sputtering after a featureless session, with tech arresting its slide but only inching up, underscoring limited buying interest amid elevated price-to-earnings ratios. Investors appear cautious, weighing the potential for a soft landing against the reality of slowing growth.

Bond markets offered a slight reprieve, with US Treasury yields inching lower. The 10-year yield slipped one basis point to 4.28 per cent, while the two-year yield also declined one basis point to 3.74 per cent. This modest dip reflects expectations of easing monetary policy, as traders bet on rate cuts to support the economy. The spread between the 10-year and two-year yields remains a focal point, with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data indicating positive values that could imply future growth, though negative spreads have historically signalled downturns.

In my opinion, these yield movements suggest markets price in a dovish Fed pivot at Jackson Hole, where Powell’s speech could confirm or dash hopes for a September rate cut. Previews from Investing.com highlight all eyes on Powell as the Fed navigates a policy tightrope amid stagflation fears. If history serves as a guide, insurance cuts like those in 2019 have boosted equities, but reactive cuts during recessions often coincide with weaker returns.

Currencies and commodities presented a mixed picture. The US Dollar Index closed largely unchanged at 98.22, providing little directional cue. Gold climbed 0.9 per cent to US$3,345 per ounce, benefiting from a softer dollar and safe-haven demand ahead of Jackson Hole. Brent crude advanced 1.6 per cent to US$67 per barrel, spurred by reports of a six-million-barrel drop in US crude inventories.

Oil prices gained slightly in Asian trading, with larger-than-expected declines in crude and fuel supporting the uptick, as noted by Reuters. I see gold’s resilience as a hedge against uncertainty, particularly with geopolitical risks like the ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks between Trump and Putin potentially easing sanctions on Russian oil. Commodities like these often thrive when traditional assets falter, and the current setup reinforces their role in diversified portfolios.

Asian markets mirrored the global unease, closing mixed yesterday with sharp losses in export-reliant economies. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.51 per cent, and Taiwan’s index dropped 2.99 per cent, driven by a weak July export report from Japan. Early trading today showed most indices opening higher, but caution prevails.

Bloomberg reports updated stock indexes in Asia-Pacific, with China e-commerce stocks’ 230 per cent rally at risk amid concerns. These declines stem from tariff fears and slowing global demand, yet the rebound in early sessions indicates bargain hunting. US equity futures point to a lower open, aligning with the broader wait-and-see approach before Jackson Hole.

Shifting to cryptocurrencies, recent insights from Glassnode illuminate intriguing divisions among Bitcoin investors. The “First Buyers” group increased their stakes by 10 per cent, seizing opportunities during market dips, while “Conviction Buyers” also bolstered holdings by 10 per cent, adopting a cautious yet hopeful stance.

Profit-Takers offloaded 5.4 per cent more assets to capitalise on gains, and Loss Sellers emerged, shedding positions amid creeping losses. Glassnode’s on-chain analysis reveals short-term holders selling at a loss for the first time in seven months, a trend that rings alarm bells but could signal a necessary market reset.

X posts from Glassnode highlight limited realised losses, suggesting newer Bitcoin investors defend their cost basis near US$112,000.

From my standpoint, these shifts underscore Bitcoin’s maturing ecosystem, where long-term holders exhibit resilience, but short-term volatility tests newcomers. The STH-SOPR dipping below 1 mirrors past corrections, yet the average unrealised loss of 10.6 per cent among short-term holders indicates panic selling that might create buying opportunities for institutions.

Institutional interest remains a cornerstone of Bitcoin’s stability, with anticipated ETF inflows amplifying demand despite macroeconomic headwinds. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$3.37 billion in net inflows last week, pushing Bitcoin from US$116,000 to US$124,000 before a pullback.

Cumulative inflows stand at US$54.85 billion, with assets under management at US$150.9 billion, even as recent outflows hit US$643 million. Trump’s executive order allowing cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans opens the door for broader adoption, potentially injecting billions from retirement savings.

The Department of Labor rescinded 2022 guidance discouraging crypto in plans, democratising access to alternative assets. I believe this policy shift marks a pivotal moment, bridging traditional finance and crypto, though risks like volatility persist for retirement investors.

Bitcoin’s consolidation ripples through altcoins like Ethereum and Solana, with Bitcoin’s market dominance at approximately 58.89 per cent. CoinMarketCap charts show Bitcoin dominance at 59.62 per cent, a slight uptick reflecting its safe-haven status. Ethereum ETFs outpaced Bitcoin inflows for five straight days, with corporate treasuries accumulating ETH amid falling exchange supply. This interdependence means Bitcoin’s stability bolsters altcoins, but a breakout above key resistance could trigger broader rallies. Solana, in particular, benefits from its speed and low fees, positioning it for growth if institutional flows diversify.

Hong Kong’s foray into spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs adds an international dimension, with recent debuts showing cautious investor appetite. MicroBit Capital Management launched ETFs tracking US dollar prices of Bitcoin and Ether, with the Bitcoin ETF (stock code 3430) rising 0.1 per cent to HK$7.82 (US$1.00) and the Ether ETF (3425) up 2.8 per cent to HK$8.03 (US$1.03).

Trading volumes reached about HK$29.68 million (US$3.80 million), per SoSoValue, contrasting with US euphoria but aligning with new stablecoin rules. Pando Finance teamed with OSL Exchange for its Bitcoin ETF launch on July 18, powered by CME CF benchmarks. Hong Kong’s stablecoin regime, effective August 1, requires licenses for issuers, with the first batch expected early next year. The HKMA’s public registry for licensed issuers enhances transparency. I regard this as a strategic move to position Hong Kong as a crypto hub, potentially attracting Asian capital and fostering innovation in fiat-backed stablecoins for trade and payments.

Overall, these developments paint a picture of interconnected markets navigating uncertainty. Traditional assets grapple with tariffs and policy risks, while cryptocurrencies demonstrate resilience through institutional backing and regulatory progress. Jackson Hole could catalyse shifts: a dovish Powell might ignite risk appetite, lifting stocks and crypto, whereas hawkish tones could strengthen the dollar and pressure yields. X discussions emphasise the symposium’s importance, with investors parsing every nuance.

In my experience, such events often precede turning points, and with Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics showing conviction among long-term holders despite short-term pain, I remain optimistic on its trajectory. The US allowing crypto in 401(k)s could unleash trillions in fresh capital, bridging generations of investors. Yet, caution prevails—volatility remains high, and diversified approaches win in the long run. As we await Powell’s words, markets hold their breath, but history favours those who adapt swiftly to emerging trends.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoins-big-moment-can-crypto-shine-as-stocks-stumble-before-jackson-hole-20250821/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j