Gold falls from US$3,500, yield curve flattens: What’s next for commodities, Bitcoin and bonds?

Gold falls from US$3,500, yield curve flattens: What’s next for commodities, Bitcoin and bonds?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on an expected de-escalation in the US-China tariff standoff, coupled with President Donald Trump’s confirmation that he will not seek to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, have injected a dose of stability into markets reeling from recent turbulence.

Meanwhile, equity markets, particularly in the US, Hong Kong, and Japan, have rallied on hopes of trade resolutions, with standout performances from companies like Tesla. In the foreign exchange markets, the US dollar has staged a rebound, while commodities like gold have pulled back from record highs, and the fixed-income market shows signs of a flattening yield curve.

These developments, set against the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) warnings of slowing global growth due to US tariffs, paint a picture of an interconnected world navigating uncertainty with cautious hope. Below, I offer my perspective on these macroeconomic, equity, currency, commodity, and fixed-income trends, grounded in the latest data and market signals.

As articulated by Bessent, the prospect of de-escalating US-China trade tensions is a pivotal development that could reshape global markets. Bessent’s assertion that the current tariff standoff—marked by US tariffs on Chinese goods at 145 per cent and China’s retaliatory duties at 125 per cent—is “unsustainable” reflects a pragmatic recognition of the economic toll on both nations. His comments at a closed-door JPMorgan Chase investor summit sparked a 2.5 per cent surge in the S&P 500, signalling market relief at the possibility of reduced trade frictions.

However, skepticism from sources like Fox Business Network’s Charles Gasparino, who suggested Bessent’s optimism may be overstated, underscores the challenges ahead. As Bessent noted, negotiations with China are likely to be a “slog,” with no formal talks yet underway. The US-China trade war has already disrupted global supply chains, fuelled inflation, and contributed to the IMF’s downward revision of global growth to 2.8 per cent for 2024 and US growth to 1.8 per cent for 2025.

A de-escalation could alleviate some of these pressures, but the path forward is complex. China’s vow to “fight until the end” and its recent 84 per cent tariffs on US goods suggest a hardline stance, though Bessent argues China holds a “losing hand” due to its export-heavy reliance on the US market.

I am cautiously optimistic: while both sides have incentives to negotiate—China to protect its export-driven economy and the US to curb inflation and market volatility—the entrenched positions and domestic political pressures on both leaders could delay meaningful progress. As noted by Politico, the White House’s reported progress on trade deals with Japan and India offers a potential blueprint for bilateral resolutions that could ease global trade tensions if applied to China.

Trump’s decision to retain Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is a stabilising force for markets, particularly after months of public criticism from the president. Trump’s earlier calls for Powell to cut interest rates aggressively, including a social media post demanding, “CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS,” had raised fears of political interference in monetary policy.

His confirmation that he has “no intention of firing” Powell, reported by Reuters, has calmed investor concerns about central bank independence, a cornerstone of US economic stability. Powell’s tenure has been marked by a cautious approach to inflation, which recently fell to 2.4 per cent in March 2025, below expectations of 2.6 per cent. This data, combined with Trump’s softened rhetoric, suggests the Federal Reserve can continue its data-driven approach without the spectre of political upheaval.

However, the IMF’s warning that US tariffs could reignite inflationary pressures complicates the Fed’s path. My take is that Powell’s retention is a net positive for markets, as it preserves institutional continuity and reduces the risk of abrupt policy shifts. Yet, Trump’s ongoing pressure for lower rates could create friction, especially if tariff-induced inflation forces the Fed to maintain or raise rates, potentially clashing with the administration’s growth agenda.

The US has seen a robust rebound in the equity markets, driven by optimism over trade negotiations and Bessent’s comments. The S&P 500’s 2.5 per cent climb, the Nasdaq 100’s 2.6 per cent rise, and the Dow’s 1,000-point gain reflect a market eager for positive signals amid recent volatility. The Cboe VIX Index, a measure of market fear, remains elevated at 31, indicating lingering uncertainty, but the rally suggests investors are betting on a softer US trade stance.

Tesla’s five per cent stock surge, fueled by renewed confidence in CEO Elon Musk’s focus on the company, is a standout. As a business leader and a vocal supporter of Trump’s policies, Musk’s influence has amplified Tesla’s market narrative, particularly as tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles could bolster domestic producers. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index’s 0.8 per cent rise to 21,562, supported by China’s “national team” and retail investors, reflects resilience despite tariff pressures.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix indices, up over two per cent have been buoyed by Wall Street’s rebound and signals of easing US-China tensions and Japan’s private sector growth. In my opinion, these equity gains are fragile, hinging on the success of trade negotiations.

The IMF’s downgraded growth forecasts for the US, Mexico, China, and the Eurozone serve as a reminder that tariffs have already inflicted economic damage, and any misstep in diplomacy could reverse these gains. Investors should remain vigilant, as the market’s optimism may outpace the reality of protracted trade talks.

The foreign exchange market has seen a notable rebound in the US dollar, with the DXY index nearing 99.5, while the euro has slipped below 1.14. This dollar strength is likely driven by renewed confidence in US economic stability following Trump’s Powell decision and Bessent’s de-escalation comments. The dollar’s earlier 5.8 per cent decline in 2025, as reported by Reuters, reflected fears that tariffs would undermine US growth. Still, the rally suggests markets are reassessing the US as a relative safe haven.

The euro’s weakness, meanwhile, stems from the Eurozone’s exposure to US tariffs and internal divisions over retaliation strategies, with countries like France advocating for aggressive countermeasures and others, like Ireland, favouring restraint. The dollar’s rebound is temporary, as tariff-related uncertainties and global growth concerns could cap its upside. The euro’s decline may persist if the European Union fails to present a unified front, but a successful negotiation with the US could stabilise the currency.

In commodities, gold’s retreat from a record high of US$3,500, as reported by Reuters, reflects a shift away from safe-haven assets as trade tensions ease. Gold’s 1.5 per cent decline on April 22, 2025, aligns with the equity market’s rally and the dollar’s strength, though its earlier surge to US$3,167.50 amid tariff fears underscores its role as a hedge against uncertainty.

Canada’s industrial producer prices, up 0.5 per cent in March 2025, driven by non-ferrous metals and wood products, highlight commodity-specific dynamics, though falling energy prices, particularly diesel, signal demand concerns. Gold’s pullback is a healthy correction, but its long-term trajectory remains upward given persistent geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures from tariffs. Investors should monitor commodity trends closely, as they offer insights into global demand and trade dynamics.

The fixed-income market’s flattening yield curve, particularly around the stable 5-year sector, is a critical signal of market expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield’s slight easing to 4.3949 per cent, as reported by Reuters, reflects concerns about slower growth, though tariff-induced inflation fears drove earlier spikes to 4.06 per cent.

A flattening yield curve often precedes economic slowdowns, and the IMF’s growth warnings reinforce this narrative. The current yield curve reflects a market grappling with mixed signals: optimism about trade de-escalation versus fears of tariff-driven inflation and recession. Fixed-income investors should remain cautious, as the Fed’s next moves will hinge on inflation data and trade outcomes.

Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, have mirrored equity market optimism, with Bitcoin hovering around US$92,800 after a 9.75 per cent rally, eyeing a US$95,000 target. Ethereum’s 11.19 per cent surge to US$1,780 and Ripple’s recovery suggest a broader risk-on sentiment.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for both Bitcoin (65) and Ethereum (54) indicates bullish momentum, but potential support levels at US$85,000 for Bitcoin and US$1,700 for Ethereum warrant caution. I think crypto’s rally is tied to broader market dynamics, particularly the dollar’s movements and trade optimism, but its volatility demands careful risk management.

In conclusion, the global economy stands at a crossroads, with Bessent’s de-escalation hopes and Trump’s Powell decision offering a reprieve from recent turmoil. Equity markets, currencies, commodities, and fixed-income trends reflect a delicate balance of optimism and caution. While markets have rallied on positive signals, the IMF’s growth warnings and the complexity of US-China negotiations suggest that volatility will persist.

My outlook is guarded optimism: progress on trade and monetary policy stability could pave the way for recovery, but investors must brace for bumps along the road. The interplay of these factors will shape the economic narrative for the remainder of 2025, and staying informed will be key to navigating this dynamic landscape.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Consensus 2025: What’s Next for WEEX? Presented by Thomas Kay; Fireside chat with Anndy Lian

Consensus 2025: What’s Next for WEEX? Presented by Thomas Kay; Fireside chat with Anndy Lian

The Hong Kong Consensus 2025 spotlight stage provided a platform for leading voices in the blockchain and Web3 space to share their insights and experiences. A key highlight was the presentation by Thomas Kay, Vice President of WEEX Global, followed by a candid fireside chat with Anndy Lian, a best-selling author and blockchain strategist. The event, presented by WEEX, offered a glimpse into the exchange’s rapid growth and a broader discussion on the evolving landscape of Web3.

WEEX Global: A Story of Exponential Growth

Thomas Kay’s presentation detailed WEEX Global’s impressive journey since its establishment in 2018. He shared that WEEX secured a $100 million investment in 2019 from top Singaporean investment firms. Within two years, the platform grew from zero to a staggering $2 billion in daily trading volume. By 2022, WEEX reached 500,000 daily users and signed Jackie Wu, a leading Hong Kong entertainer, as its global brand ambassador.

Kay highlighted that in 2023, WEEX’s user base expanded to over 2 million globally, and they obtained SVG and FSA licenses, enabling operations in over 200 countries and regions. Another $100 million investment was secured from FSN Group, a major South Korean marketing agency. Kay proudly stated, “2024, I think it was one of our best year, full of achievements. I’m very proud to say that we are one of the fastest-growing exchange last year.” The exchange grew from 2 million to 6 million users, reaching a daily trading volume of $5 billion.

A key differentiator for WEEX, according to Kay, is its extensive offering of altcoin pairs. “We have one of the most altcoin pairs, 1,700 plus futures and spot trading pairs,” he stated, providing users with a vast variety of trading options. He emphasized WEEX’s commitment to listing valuable projects, with over 100 different projects listed monthly.

Kay also pointed out WEEX’s focus on liquidity. “When it comes to trading, liquidity is honestly one of the highest priorities for a lot of users,” he said. WEEX boasts over 800 deep liquidity futures and ranks top five among all exchanges in terms of liquidity. Notably, research by CoinMarketCap placed WEEX in the top three for Bitcoin and Ethereum liquidity.

WEEX recently introduced higher leverage options, up to 400x. Kay acknowledged, “I personally would never recommend anyone to go above 50x,” but noted that over 30% of users trade with more than 200x leverage. He explained that this caters to the market trend where users seek higher upside with less capital.

Security remains a top priority for WEEX. Kay mentioned the establishment of a 1,000 BTC protection fund to ensure user fund security. “We have consistently managed to have more than 100% reserve ratio for the last two years,” he added.

The WEEX Token (WXT) and Future Plans

Kay introduced WEEX’s native platform token, WXT, highlighting its remarkable growth of 384% since launch. He described it as “a benchmark for every centralized exchange trying to launch a token right now.” WEEX plans to replicate the success of other exchange tokens by burning WXT quarterly, using 20% of the company’s profits to reduce supply and enhance token value.

WXT offers users up to 70% trading fee discounts and higher profit shares for affiliates. Kay also highlighted the “relaunch” platform, where users can commit WXT to projects and receive airdrops. He announced a current event offering 1 million USDT worth of WXT airdrops to holders.

Looking ahead, WEEX plans to be active in conferences and expand globally, with a new office launching in Dubai. Kay emphasized the focus on providing the best experience for all users, including institutional and high-net-worth individuals. He also stressed the importance of community engagement and global compliance. “In 2025, one of our top priorities across all departments is compliance,” he stated.

Fireside Chat: Community, Exchanges, and Sustainability in Web3

The fireside chat between Thomas Kay and Anndy Lian delved into the challenges and opportunities in the Web3 space. The conversation began with a discussion on community building.

Kay acknowledged the difficulty, stating, “Building community is a lot tougher than a lot of you guys think,” especially compared to 2018. He emphasized the need to provide value beyond incentives: “We want communities that stay with you because of who you are or what you provide for them long term.”

Lian added that users are now more sophisticated, seeking transparency and understanding the relationship between projects and exchanges. “It’s not easy to really build effectively,” he said, highlighting the need for unity and collaboration within the ecosystem. He suggested that established exchanges should support smaller projects in emerging markets.

Lian emphasized the importance of genuine community engagement. “Whenever I see a very good community…it will be easier for us to spot good projects on X,” he said, noting that real community members’ actions and feedback are distinct from bots.

The conversation shifted to the evolving role of exchanges. Lian pointed out that users are looking for exchanges that offer an extra layer of security and accessibility, particularly for on-ramping and off-ramping funds. He also predicted a decline in KOL-driven exchanges, stating, “Exchanges’ role is also to help us see out what are the goods that you should really talk to and work with.”

Lian shared an interesting observation: “Normies are actually asking these questions in specific AMAs or private groups,” referring to questions about exchange listing fees and whether exchanges are genuinely supporting the community or prioritizing revenue. He stressed that “things should be transparent.”

Regarding the future of projects and memes, Lian sees meme coins as a “door opener” for easy entry into the crypto space. However, he emphasized the need for a sustainable roadmap beyond the initial hype. He suggested models like franchise cafes or merchandise, where the community works for their own benefit, ensuring long-term sustainability.

Lian criticized projects with “no plans” and “poor leaders,” emphasizing the need for price action and real partnerships. He highlighted the importance of exchanges partnering with good communities for a win-win situation. He cautioned against prioritizing influencers over genuine community benefit, stating, “If you want to be sustainable, you have a big community, make sure that you can monetize that.”

The fireside chat concluded with a call for candid conversations and mindful actions within the Web3 space. Lian’s closing remark, “I hope everybody can do well in this run,” encapsulated the overall sentiment of the event: a focus on collaboration, transparency, and sustainable growth within the evolving world of blockchain and Web3.

 

Video Source: https://consensus-hongkong2025.coindesk.com/agenda/event/-weex-sponsored-session-92 (Official Video from Consensus 2025)

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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The next wave of AI agents: A step towards true decentralisation and Web4

The next wave of AI agents: A step towards true decentralisation and Web4

Artificial intelligence (AI) is advancing at a breakneck pace, and with it comes the potential to reshape industries and redefine how we interact with technology. Among the most exciting developments in this space is the rise of AI agents—autonomous systems capable of making decisions, learning from their environment, and executing tasks without constant human oversight. For those of us who believe in the ideals of Web4 and true decentralisation, AI agents represent a critical step forward. They offer the possibility of creating systems that are not only efficient but also equitable and self-sustaining.

However, the concept of AI agents is often misunderstood. Many people equate them with tools like ChatGPT or automated bots, which, while useful, fall far short of the true potential of AI agents. Others see AI as little more than a tool for generating content, such as images or articles. These misconceptions limit our understanding of what AI agents can achieve and obscure their transformative potential. To fully appreciate the next wave of AI agents, we need to move beyond these narrow definitions and explore their practical applications, particularly in the world of cryptocurrency, where they could serve as the backbone of decentralised systems.

Misunderstanding AI agents: More than just tools or bots

When you mention AI agents to the average person, their first thought is often of tools like ChatGPT. While ChatGPT is undeniably powerful—it can draft essays, summarise complex documents, and even assist with coding—it is not an AI agent in the truest sense. ChatGPT is a productivity tool, designed to respond to prompts and assist with specific tasks. It lacks the autonomy and decision-making capabilities that define a true AI agent.

Another common misconception is the idea that automated bots are AI agents. These bots, which are often used for tasks like customer service or social media management, are pre-programmed to perform specific functions. For example, a bot that automatically replies to customer inquiries or schedules meetings based on calendar availability is not an AI agent. It is simply a well-designed automation tool. True AI agents, by contrast, are capable of adapting to new situations, learning from their experiences, and making decisions without human input.

Finally, there is the belief that AI agents are primarily tools for generating content, such as images or articles. While AI can certainly create stunning visuals and compelling text, this is only a small part of what true AI agents can do. To illustrate this, let’s look at three examples of AI applications that go beyond these narrow definitions:

  1. Scientific Discovery: AI systems like DeepMind’s AlphaFold have revolutionised biology by predicting protein structures with remarkable accuracy. This isn’t just a productivity boost—it’s a fundamental shift in how scientific research is conducted. AlphaFold operates autonomously, solving problems that were previously thought to be insurmountable.
  2. Personalised Medicine: In healthcare, AI agents are being used to develop personalised treatment plans. IBM’s Watson Health, for example, has analysed patient data to recommend tailored cancer treatments. This goes beyond simple automation; it’s about making life-saving decisions based on complex data.
  3. Urban Planning: AI agents are also being used to design smarter cities. Sidewalk Labs, a subsidiary of Alphabet, has developed systems that analyse traffic patterns, energy usage, and public transportation needs to create more efficient and sustainable urban environments.

These examples show that AI agents are not just tools—they are autonomous systems capable of transforming entire industries. But their potential becomes even more exciting when we consider their role in the world of cryptocurrency.

AI Agents in cryptocurrency: A new era of decentralisation

The cryptocurrency space has always been a breeding ground for innovation, and the integration of AI agents is the next logical step in its evolution. Unfortunately, when you bring up AI agents in crypto circles, the conversation often focuses on trading bots. These bots, which execute trades based on market conditions, are useful but far from revolutionary. They are not true AI agents; they are simply tools for automating repetitive tasks adapted to live data. The real potential of AI agents in crypto lies in their ability to serve as the backbone of decentralised projects, driving everything from governance to community engagement.

Example 1: DAO Governance

One of the most promising applications of AI agents in crypto is governance. Imagine a project like GOAT (Governance Optimised Autonomous Tokenisation), where an AI agent oversees the entire governance process. This agent could analyse community feedback, monitor on-chain activity, and propose changes to the tokenomics model based on real-time data. By doing so, it ensures that the project remains aligned with the community’s needs and adapts to changing market conditions without requiring constant human intervention.

Example 2: AI-Driven Tokenomics

Another exciting application is the use of AI agents to design tokenisation models. Tokenomics is a complex field that requires balancing incentives for developers, investors, and users. An AI agent could analyse historical data, simulate different scenarios, and propose a tokenisation model that maximises long-term value for all participants. For instance, it could recommend a dynamic staking mechanism that adjusts rewards based on network activity, ensuring the system remains sustainable over time. You can look at ai16z as an example for the above.

Example 3: Community engagement and content creation

AI agents can also play a central role in content creation and community engagement. Picture an AI agent that autonomously generates educational content, such as tutorials and explainer videos, tailored to the needs of the community. It could also moderate forums, answer questions, and even identify and address potential sources of conflict within the community. By fostering a more inclusive and engaged user base, the AI agent would contribute to the long-term success of the project. The closest for this example would be Virtuals Protocol.

These examples demonstrate that AI agents can do far more than automate trading or generate content. They can serve as the central nervous system of a crypto project, driving innovation and ensuring its sustainability.

Challenges and Opportunities

While the potential of AI agents is enormous, there are significant challenges that must be addressed. One of the biggest concerns is transparency. As AI agents become more autonomous, it’s crucial to ensure that their decision-making processes are transparent and aligned with human values. This is especially important in decentralised systems, where trust is a cornerstone.

Another challenge is the risk of centralisation. Ironically, the very technology that promises to enable decentralisation could become a source of centralisation if a few entities control the development and deployment of AI agents. To prevent this, we need to prioritise open-source development and community-driven governance models.

Ethics is another critical issue. As AI agents take on more responsibilities, we must grapple with questions about fairness, bias, and privacy. These challenges are not unique to AI agents, but their autonomous nature makes them particularly difficult to address.

Despite these challenges, the opportunities far outweigh the risks. By integrating AI agents into decentralised systems, we can create a world where technology serves as a true enabler of human potential. Imagine a future where AI agents manage entire ecosystems, from designing tokenomics to fostering community engagement, all while operating transparently and ethically. This is not a distant dream—it’s a vision that is rapidly becoming a reality.

A call to action

The rise of AI agents represents a fundamental shift in how we think about technology and its role in society. These systems are not just tools or bots; they are autonomous, intelligent entities capable of transforming industries and enabling true decentralisation. In the world of cryptocurrency, they have the potential to serve as the backbone of decentralised projects, driving innovation and ensuring long-term sustainability.

But realising this vision will require a collective effort. Developers must prioritise transparency and ethics, while communities must embrace the potential of AI agents to drive meaningful change. Most importantly, we need to move beyond the narrow definitions and misconceptions that currently dominate the conversation and recognise the true potential of AI agents as enablers of a decentralised future.

As someone who has long believed in the ideals of Web4 and true decentralisation, I am optimistic about the future of AI agents. They represent not just the next wave of technology, but a fundamental shift in how we interact with the digital world. The journey will not be without its challenges, but the destination—a world where technology empowers individuals and communities—is well worth the effort. Let’s embrace this new wave with open minds and a commitment to building a better, more decentralised future.

 

Source: https://ciosea.economictimes.indiatimes.com/amp/blog/the-next-wave-of-ai-agents-a-step-towards-true-decentralisation-and-web4/117190829

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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