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Crypto rallies 4.5 per cent amid stock sell-off: Smart money is moving fast

Crypto rallies 4.5 per cent amid stock sell-off: Smart money is moving fast

Markets on January 13 and 14, 2026, signal a divergence between traditional finance and digital assets. In the United States, equities retreated as investors weighed mixed signals from inflation data and the opening salvos of earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 400 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted smaller but still notable declines. Financial stocks led the decline after JPMorgan Chase missed expectations on investment banking fees, underscoring how even modest disappointments can ripple through a market already cautious about the sustainability of growth.

Meanwhile, across the Pacific, Asian markets painted a more optimistic picture. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 0.9 per cent to breach the 54,000 mark for the first time in history, propelled by a weakening yen that slid past 159 per dollar and speculation around a potential snap election. Elsewhere in Asia, gains were modest but consistent, reflecting regional confidence that contrasts with Wall Street’s hesitation.

Commodities and currencies mirrored this tension between caution and opportunity. Gold pulled back slightly from its record high of US$4,644 an ounce to settle at US$4,590, suggesting that while safe-haven demand remains elevated, some investors are rotating into riskier assets. Crude oil rose 2.5 per cent to US$61 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions over potential US tariffs targeting nations trading with Iran. This shows that energy markets remain sensitive to policy-driven uncertainty. Currency markets showed similar stress, with the yen continuing its slide while the euro held steady near US$1.1645.

From my perspective, what stands out is not only the divergence between US and Asian equity performance but also the concurrent surge in crypto markets. Bitcoin reclaimed US$95,000, triggering a cascade of algorithmic buying and liquidating US$62 million in short positions within 24 hours. This move was not speculative noise. It was structurally reinforced by institutional momentum. Morgan Stanley’s filing for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs marks a pivotal expansion of regulated crypto access, following Grayscale’s own exploratory filings and bolstered by pro-crypto political rhetoric. The numbers speak clearly: US$571 million flowed into Bitcoin ETFs this week, while Ethereum attracted US$1.24 billion. These are not marginal bets. They represent deep conviction from traditional finance players.

The technical breakout in Bitcoin coincided with a sharp spike in funding rates, up 87 per cent in one day, as leveraged traders scrambled to cover shorts after the price pierced the US$94,500 Fibonacci resistance. Open interest fell by nearly 10 per cent, indicating a wave of deleveraging rather than a new speculative buildup. That distinction matters. It suggests the rally has a foundation beyond hype. It reflects both institutional validation and a clearing of excessive bearish positioning.

Caution remains warranted. While cooler-than-expected US CPI data offered relief, bond markets still price in no Federal Reserve rate cuts until mid-2026. China’s consumer prices rose 0.8 per cent year-over-year, the fastest since early 2023, even as producer prices stayed deflationary, hinting at fragile domestic demand. These macro crosscurrents mean that while crypto enjoys a moment of strength, it does so against a backdrop where traditional markets are still searching for clarity.

In conclusion, January 14 presents a world in which legacy markets tread carefully amid earnings scrutiny and geopolitical friction, while digital assets surge amid institutional adoption and technical triggers. The real test will come in whether Bitcoin can hold above US$94,000 without immediate profit-taking. If it does, this rally may signal more than a short-term bounce. It could mark the beginning of a new phase in which crypto operates not as a fringe asset but as a core component of diversified portfolios.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-rallies-4-5-per-cent-amid-stock-sell-off-smart-money-is-moving-fast-20260114/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

7-day crypto sell-off deepens – is this the start of a full capitulation?

7-day crypto sell-off deepens – is this the start of a full capitulation?

We have entered a phase of heightened uncertainty where geopolitical manoeuvring, central bank caution, and deteriorating market sentiment converge to pressure risk assets across the board. At the centre of this turbulence sits the cryptocurrency market, which has now extended its losses for a seventh consecutive day, falling 3.17 per cent over the past week and another 0.64 per cent in the last 24 hours.

This pullback is not occurring in isolation. Instead, it reflects a broader retreat in global risk appetite shaped by mixed corporate earnings, renewed US-China trade tensions, and a sudden shift in monetary policy expectations in emerging markets.

Most notably, Indonesia’s central bank defied forecasts by holding rates steady after six consecutive cuts. These macro crosscurrents have created fertile ground for bearish dynamics to take root in crypto, amplified by three interlocking factors: dormant Bitcoin whale movements, plunging sentiment into extreme fear territory, and a technical structure that continues to erode.

The most immediate catalyst for the recent selloff came from an unexpected source. Six long-dormant Bitcoin wallets, originally active between 2013 and 2016, suddenly moved 262.43 BTC, worth more than 28 million dollars, to exchanges like Bitstamp on October 22. Historically, such transfers from vintage wallets carry outsized psychological weight. These addresses often belong to early adopters or institutional holders who have held through multiple market cycles. When they stir, especially during periods of price weakness, markets interpret the move as a potential prelude to liquidation.

Bitcoin had already shed 13 per cent over the prior two weeks, sliding to around 107,500 dollars, and the timing of this transfer injected fresh anxiety into an already fragile market. While it remains unclear whether these coins will actually be sold, some may be repositioned to cold storage or used for collateral. The mere act of moving them onto exchanges triggered algorithmic alerts and retail panic alike. In a market increasingly driven by short-term technical signals and sentiment feedback loops, perception often becomes reality.

Compounding this structural vulnerability is the sharp deterioration in market psychology. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 28, marking a return to extreme fear for the first time since March 2025. This is not just a headline number. It reflects real behavioural shifts among participants. Spot trading volumes dropped 16.6 per cent in 24 hours, signalling that retail traders are stepping back from the market rather than buying the dip.

Simultaneously, derivatives open interest fell by 2.8 per cent, indicating that leveraged positions are being unwound, either voluntarily or through forced liquidations. This flight to safety extends beyond Bitcoin. The Altcoin Season Index sits at 28, well below the 75 threshold that typically defines altcoin outperformance, while Bitcoin dominance holds firm at 59.2 per cent.

Capital is clearly rotating out of speculative assets and into the relative safety of the flagship cryptocurrency, or exiting crypto altogether. Such dynamics often precede capitulation phases where prolonged fear exhausts the remaining pool of weak hands, potentially setting the stage for a bottom, but not before further downside may unfold.

From a technical standpoint, the market structure has grown increasingly precarious. The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation now stands at 3.63 trillion dollars, having broken below both its 7-day simple moving average at 3.65 trillion dollars and its 30-day SMA at 3.89 trillion dollars. The MACD histogram, a key momentum oscillator, shows a bearish divergence at negative 23.8 billion dollars, confirming that downward pressure is accelerating.

Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index sits at 30.5, approaching oversold levels but not yet at the extremes that historically signal a reversal. Technical traders are now watching the 3.6 trillion dollar mark as a critical psychological and algorithmic threshold. A sustained close below this level could activate stop-loss orders and trigger further automated selling, with the next major support zone not appearing until the 200-day exponential moving average near 3.54 trillion dollars. Until then, the path of least resistance remains downward.

These crypto-specific dynamics are unfolding against a backdrop of global macro instability. US equities closed lower across the board on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones down 0.71 per cent, the S&P 500 off 0.53 per cent, and the Nasdaq falling 0.93 per cent. Treasury yields edged down slightly, with the 10-year yield settling at 3.949 per cent, as investors priced in a more cautious Federal Reserve amid softening economic data and geopolitical noise.

Of particular concern are reports that the Trump administration is weighing new export restrictions on semiconductor software destined for China. This move could reignite trade tensions just as President Trump expressed optimism about an upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi in South Korea.

While Trump voiced confidence about striking deals on soybeans and even nuclear cooperation, markets remain skeptical. The mere discussion of new tech curbs underscores the fragility of US-China relations and adds another layer of risk to an already volatile environment.

Even emerging market central banks are contributing to the unease. Bank Indonesia’s surprise decision to hold rates steady, contrary to the widely expected 25 basis point cut, signals that policymakers are shifting focus from stimulus to policy transmission. Governor Perry Warjiyo’s comment that after six cuts, their focus now is on strengthening transmission suggests that further easing may be on pause.

This stance could ripple through other emerging economies and tighten global liquidity conditions at the margin. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index held steady near 98.897, while gold retreated to 4,098.42 dollars per ounce as traders locked in profits ahead of Friday’s US September CPI report, a key data point that could sway Fed rate expectations in either direction.

Within the crypto ecosystem, even the usually stabilising force of spot Bitcoin ETFs offered little relief. While BlackRock’s IBIT saw net inflows of 210 million dollars, these were more than offset by significant outflows from Ark at 53.9 million dollars and Fidelity at 67.4 million dollars, resulting in net negative momentum. This divergence highlights growing selectivity among institutional players who may be rotating out of higher-fee or underperforming products even as they maintain overall exposure.

The current decline is not a random fluctuation but the product of converging bearish forces: macro uncertainty, whale-induced anxiety, collapsing sentiment, and deteriorating technicals. The critical question now is whether the 28 million dollars in moved Bitcoin will actually flood exchange order books or if this is a false alarm, a mere wallet reshuffle by long-term holders. Traders should monitor real-time exchange inflow metrics and liquidation heatmaps over the next 24 to 48 hours.

If Bitcoin holds above 105,000 dollars, a short-term bounce remains possible. A decisive break below that level could unleash a wave of algorithmic selling, dragging altcoins deeper into the red. In such an environment, patience and precision outweigh conviction. The market is signalling caution, and for now, it deserves to be heeded.

 

Source: https://e27.co/7-day-crypto-sell-off-deepens-is-this-the-start-of-a-full-capitulation-20251023/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

October’s perfect storm: Earnings, regulation, and the crypto sell-off

October’s perfect storm: Earnings, regulation, and the crypto sell-off

The recent pullback in crypto markets reflects a complex interplay of macroeconomic forces, derivatives dynamics, and evolving regulatory frameworks. At its core, the 1.24 per cent decline over the past 24 hours and the broader 4.99 per cent slide over the past week cannot be attributed to a single factor.

Instead, it emerges from a convergence of risk-off sentiment in traditional markets, a reset in leveraged positioning, and heightened scrutiny over the structural integrity of stablecoins under new legislative proposals. These elements collectively reinforce crypto’s current role as a correlated risk asset rather than a safe haven or uncorrelated store of value.

Global risk sentiment remains subdued as investors brace for a critical wave of corporate earnings reports scheduled between October 23 and 27. The performance of major US technology firms will likely dictate near-term direction not only for equities but also for digital assets, given the persistent correlation between crypto and tech-heavy indices.

On Tuesday, US equities closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.47 per cent while the Nasdaq slipped 0.16 per cent. This divergence underscores underlying fragility in market breadth, particularly as tariff-related concerns weigh on industrial and export-oriented sectors. Notably, the 24-hour correlation between Bitcoin and the Dow reached +0.89, while its link to the Nasdaq stood at +0.33, confirming that broader equity weakness, especially in cyclical segments, continues to drag on crypto sentiment.

Compounding this dynamic is the sharp correction in gold, which plunged 5.3 per cent to US$4,125.22 per ounce on October 21, marking its steepest single-day decline in over a decade. This collapse in a traditional safe-haven asset further illustrates the market’s risk-off posture and suggests that capital is not rotating into defensive instruments but rather retreating into liquidity or the US dollar, which rose 0.35 per cent to 98.934 on the Dollar Index.

Meanwhile, Brent crude edged higher to US$61.32 per barrel, supported by declining US crude inventories, highlighting a nuanced energy-market backdrop that has not yet translated into broader commodity strength.

In Japan, political developments added another layer of geopolitical nuance. Sanae Takaichi secured 237 votes in the Diet on October 21 to become Japan’s first female prime minister, following her victory in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership race on October 4.

Her stated intention to meet with US President Donald Trump to elevate Japan-US relations to new heights introduces potential for renewed trade dialogue, though Trump’s own remarks expressing optimism about a possible deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping while simultaneously casting doubt on whether the meeting will occur, inject further uncertainty into global trade expectations. This ambiguity feeds directly into market caution, as unresolved trade tensions remain a key overhang for risk assets.

Turning to crypto-specific drivers, the derivatives market has undergone a significant deleveraging event. Open interest in perpetual futures surged 9.82 per cent to US$952 billion, but this buildup was heavily skewed toward long positions during Bitcoin’s rally to US$126,198 on October 6. That peak represented a historic milestone, driven by institutional inflows and macro tailwinds, but it also sowed the seeds of vulnerability.

As prices reversed, US$321 million in Bitcoin futures were liquidated, with 77 per cent of those positions held by longs. This cascade amplified selling pressure and pushed the market capitalisation below the critical US$3.74 trillion Fibonacci support level. The Relative Strength Index now sits at 28.9, signalling oversold conditions, yet technical support at US$102,000 remains the key battleground. A breach below this level could trigger further algorithmic and discretionary selling.

Regulatory developments have also weighed on sentiment, particularly surrounding the proposed GENIUS Act. While the legislation aims to create a federal framework for payment stablecoins, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr raised alarms about potential systemic risks if the law permits Bitcoin to be used as collateral in repo agreements for stablecoin reserves. A close reading of the bill reveals that the GENIUS Act actually prohibits rehypothecation of stablecoin reserves and mandates that payment stablecoins carry direct redemption rights against their underlying assets.

Furthermore, the Act explicitly forbids stablecoins from bearing interest, being staked, or providing dividends. These provisions suggest that Bitcoin-backed stablecoins, as described in the prompt, are not permitted under the current draft. Barr’s warning may therefore reflect a hypothetical or misinterpreted scenario, but the mere perception of regulatory risk has been enough to dampen institutional enthusiasm and reinforce the narrative that crypto’s path to mainstream adoption remains fraught with policy uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, the question of altcoin performance hinges on Bitcoin’s ability to stabilise. Historically, altcoins tend to underperform during broad risk-off episodes, and the current data support this pattern. Altcoin funding rates lag Bitcoin’s by -0.0004 per cent, indicating bearish positioning and reduced speculative appetite outside the flagship asset.

If Bitcoin holds $102,000 and macro conditions improve, particularly if Q3 earnings deliver resilient guidance, altcoins could experience a relief rally. However, if equity markets continue to falter and regulatory headlines intensify, sector-wide risk aversion will likely prevail, keeping altcoins tethered to Bitcoin’s fate.

In a nutshell, the current dip is not an isolated crypto event but a symptom of wider financial market recalibration. The convergence of macro headwinds, leveraged unwinds, and regulatory noise has created a perfect storm of selling pressure. The extreme fear reflected in sentiment indicators and the technical oversold condition suggest that the market may be nearing a short-term inflection point.

Whether this leads to a sustainable rebound or merely a dead-cat bounce depends on the clarity provided by the upcoming earnings season and the actual implementation, not just the rhetoric, of stablecoin regulation. Until then, traders will remain on edge, watching Bitcoin’s $102,000 support as the canary in the coal mine for the entire digital asset ecosystem.

 

Source: https://e27.co/octobers-perfect-storm-earnings-regulation-and-the-crypto-sell-off-20251022/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j