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CPI at 0.4% Broke Bitcoin’s $73,000 Floor. What Happens if the Fed Goes Bigger?

CPI at 0.4% Broke Bitcoin’s $73,000 Floor. What Happens if the Fed Goes Bigger?

As anticipated yesterday, Bitcoin fell below $73,000 and touched a nearly 3-month low after the October U.S. CPI report came in hotter than forecast. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month against a 0.3% expectation, while core CPI rose 0.3% against a 0.2% expectation. Bitcoin was down 1.89% to $73,601.89 over 24h in the available data, and the broader crypto market fell 2.14% over the same period. The decline looked largely market-linked rather than tied to a Bitcoin-specific announcement, and the inflation surprise gave sellers a clear macro reason to act.

The Federal Reserve effect did most of the initial damage. A hotter inflation reading revived bets that the Fed will raise rates or keep them high at its December meeting. Higher rates lift yields on cash and government bonds, and that raises the opportunity cost of holding an asset that produces no cash flow. Bitcoin sits at the speculative end of the risk curve, so it absorbs that shift quickly. The CPI report changed rate expectations, and rate expectations changed the relative appeal of Bitcoin against safer yield-bearing assets. I see this as the primary trigger because it was measurable, immediate, and broad enough to hit crypto alongside other rate-sensitive assets.

Leverage turned the macro shock into a violent flush. Over $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions disappeared within 24h, and roughly 88% of those liquidations hit long positions. A long liquidation closes a bet on higher prices and sells the underlying asset to cover the loss. That selling pushes the price lower, which triggers more liquidations, which produces more selling. The available data also shows about $178 million in crypto long positions closed within 1 hour after the CPI release, while BTC liquidations totaled $204.41 million over 24h. The inflation report did not create that fragility. It exposed it.

Institutional demand had already lost some of its cushion. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded record net outflows of $1.28 billion in a single week, led largely by BlackRock’s IBIT fund. The available data also shows $201 million in net outflows on November 9. Those withdrawals matter because ETFs had provided a visible source of steady buying support. Public companies added to the supply side by unloading roughly $869 million worth of Bitcoin. That corporate selling reinforced the impression that large holders were trimming exposure into weakness rather than adding.

The broader risk backdrop made the crypto move worse. A chip-led selloff sent the Nasdaq 100 tumbling 6.4%, and Bitcoin moved with tech-correlated assets. Headlines about stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and a high-profile independent board investigation into Nvidia’s CEO further dampened global risk appetite. The correlation data supports that read. Crypto showed an 83% correlation with the S&P 500 and a 95% correlation with gold, consistent with broad cross-asset repricing. The Fear and Greed Index sat at 26, which reflects defensive sentiment rather than causal panic. I would treat the correlations as evidence of shared pressure.

My own view is that the CPI report deserves its place as the primary reason, but the severity of the drop came from the interaction between that report and the market’s internal weaknesses. Leverage was elevated, ETF flows had turned negative, and corporate treasuries were reducing exposure. The tech selloff and geopolitical headlines then turned a macro repricing into a fuller risk-off cascade. In that sense, the CPI was the spark, and the dry kindling was already stacked.

The near-term outlook remains cautious. Bitcoin is near its 200-day simple moving average at $73,136, with a recent swing low around $72,689. A hold above $73,136 and a reclaim of $74,000 to $75,000 could support a rebound. A break below $72,689 risks further weakness. The total crypto market cap sits at $2.45T as the current pivot, and a move back toward $2.52T would suggest the selloff is easing. The next spot ETF flow reports offer a measurable demand check. I see the bias as bearish while price stays below $74,000 to $75,000.

The key question is whether Bitcoin can hold near $73,000 and whether ETF flows show buyers returning.

 

https://e27.co/cpi-at-0-4-broke-bitcoins-us73000-floor-what-happens-if-the-fed-goes-bigger-20261111/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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Reclaim $77,159 or Break $73,188: Which Comes First for Bitcoin?

Reclaim $77,159 or Break $73,188: Which Comes First for Bitcoin?

The 2 reports describe a risk-off episode from different angles. Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $74,577.82 in 24 hours while the broader crypto market dropped 1.52% to $2.5 trillion. That move underperformed a wider market that fell 1.98% and was 91% correlated with the S&P 500 over the past week. This decline reflects a technical deleveraging shock layered on top of a macro risk-off move. Liquidation data explains the speed, and macro data explains the direction.

The primary cause was a cascade of leveraged long liquidations. More than $1 billion in crypto leveraged positions closed in the 24 hours leading up to November 6, and Bitcoin accounted for $224.65 million of that total. Long positions made up the vast majority, with a report putting longs above 88% and another at 96%. Bitcoin long liquidations spiked over 3339% in 24 hours to $224.65 million. That spike matters because forced selling creates a feedback loop. Traders who expected higher prices had to exit, and their exits pushed prices lower, which triggered more exits. The market had grown over-leveraged on the long side. This is why the move looked violent rather than orderly. The rapid unwind suggests a flush of speculative excess, and such a flush can sometimes clear the way for a more stable base. The immediate signal to watch is stabilization in Bitcoin’s 24-hour liquidation totals, which spiked by over 3300%. A return to normal levels would point to reduced selling pressure. The average funding rate also plunged 75%, which can help signal when leveraged selling pressure may subside.

Secondary causes split into 2 connected channels. The first came from traditional risk assets. The Nasdaq fell 5.5% on November 5 amid concerns about AI-sector growth, and Bitcoin’s high correlation with tech stocks dragged crypto lower. The other came from institutional flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock’s, saw multi-day net outflows, with a reported $104.97 million sale adding direct sell-side pressure.

A separate report also pointed to regulatory uncertainty after U.S. authorities moved to block transactions involving MEXC Global and alleged $16 billion in illicit activity. That headline added to the risk-off tone. My view is that the regulatory item matters less for its direct size than for its timing. It arrived while the market was already fragile, and it likely reduced liquidity and confidence. The move did not come from blockchain-specific news. It came from sensitivity to traditional risk assets, institutional flow trends, and a sudden regulatory headline. The 2 reports differ in emphasis, but they agree on the transmission path. A macro shock hit risk assets, ETF outflows added supply, and the liquidation engine amplified the result.

Near-term outlook hinges on a price floor and macro data. Bitcoin traded below its key 7-day and 30-day Simple Moving Averages. Its 200-day Simple Moving Average stood at $73,187.78, serving as a major floor. The immediate catalyst is the US October Consumer Price Index report on November 10. A hotter-than-expected print could renew rate fears and pressure risk assets. A cooler reading might offer relief. On the market-cap side, the crypto sector tested a critical floor between $2.49 trillion and $2.5 trillion, which aligned with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A hold above that floor and a reduction in liquidation volume could pave the way for a short-term rebound. Failure to hold could lead to a test of the 200-day moving average near $2.48 trillion. Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim $2.56 trillion, the 78.6% Fibonacci level, and subsequent ETF flow data would help gauge institutional conviction. The asset needs to reclaim the 7-day Simple Moving Average near $77,159 to signal a potential recovery. The key zone is $73,188 to $74,795. A decisive break below could trigger another leg down. This zone matters because it sits close to both the Bitcoin 200-day level and the market-cap floor. That overlap gives traders a clean line to watch.

My point of view is that bearish pressure is real but narrower than the headline suggests. The sell-off looks primarily like a technical deleveraging event, magnified by thin weekend liquidity and regulatory headlines. The long liquidation flush may be nearing exhaustion, but the overall trend remains weak until key resistance levels return. I would not treat a brief bounce as a trend change. I would want to see liquidation totals normalize, funding rates stabilize, and Bitcoin defend the 200-day Simple Moving Average near $73,188. I would also want ETF flows to stop subtracting from demand. The macro side is equally important. The 91% correlation with the S&P 500 over the past week tells me Bitcoin is trading as a risk asset right now. That means the CPI release on November 10 can matter more than any crypto-specific headline. If inflation data comes in hot, rate fears could renew pressure on risk assets and make the $73,188 floor test more likely. If inflation data comes in cool, relief could help Bitcoin stabilize and attempt a reclaim of the 7-day Simple Moving Average near $77,159. I see the regulatory headline as a timing issue rather than the root cause. It made an already crowded trade more vulnerable. A relief bounce can happen without a full trend reversal, and I would treat it as a chance to see whether leverage has truly reset.

Bitcoin’s decline combines a macro risk-off event and an internal deleveraging shock. The liquidation flush may be nearing exhaustion, but the trend remains weak until key resistance levels return. The central question is whether Bitcoin can defend its 200-day Simple Moving Average following the US CPI release, or whether breaking it opens the door to deeper losses. The market needs time and calmer leverage conditions more than it needs a dramatic catalyst. A quiet stabilization in liquidation totals and funding rates would do more for the outlook than a sharp relief rally that rests on thin liquidity. The next few sessions should reveal whether this was a flush or the start of a deeper repricing.

https://e27.co/bitcoin-tests-us73188-can-the-200-day-line-stop-the-slide-20261109/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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Can Bitcoin Reclaim $80,000 Before the Fed Speaks?

Can Bitcoin Reclaim $80,000 Before the Fed Speaks?

It’s Monday. Bitcoin slipped 0.97% to $79,912.85 over the last 24 hours. That number alone looks mild for an asset known for violent swings. The total crypto market cap fell 0.72% to $2.68 trillion. Bitcoin’s 7-day correlation with the S&P 500 reached 83.4%. That correlation explains the move better than the price change. This was not a crypto-specific breakdown. It was a risk-asset repricing shaped by fragile positioning and tougher financial conditions.

Institutional flows supplied the first push. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $635.5 million on October 22 and another $137.9 million on October 23. Combined outflows reached roughly $773.5 million over 2 days. That reversal followed prior-week inflows. The speed of the turn challenges the idea that ETF money is steady and structural. It behaves tactically. It chases momentum and exits when fear rises. This flow reversal added direct selling into an already nervous tape.

Leverage amplified the decline. Leveraged positions fell roughly $815 million to $837 million in 24 hours. Bullish traders took most of the damage. Total derivatives open interest fell 8.6%, which confirms broad deleveraging rather than an isolated spot sale. Stop losses and forced sales fed the drop. The flush removes speculative weight, but it also shows how crowded longs had become. A market cannot build a durable rally on a foundation of stretched positioning.

Geopolitical risk added another layer. Weekend headlines reported that President Trump said the U.S. could strike Iran as soon as Sunday. Bitcoin trades around the clock and absorbed early selling before traditional equity markets opened. This is a structural disadvantage in a crisis. Investors seeking protection do not treat Bitcoin as a hedge. It trades like a risk asset. The 83.4% correlation with the S&P 500 reinforces that role. Short-term behavior is currently indistinguishable from equities, and traditional equity futures were also weak.

The rates backdrop made the selling easier. The 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated near 5.3%, and September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year. Sticky inflation and high yields reduce demand for non-yielding volatile assets. Crypto sits at the far end of the risk curve, so it feels that strain more acutely than most sectors. The Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision is the key near-term catalyst. A hawkish tone would extend the pressure and make a test of $77,600 more likely. A dovish shift, or cooling inflation data on October 29, could stabilize prices and give the asset class room to breathe. Traders are not waiting for a crypto-native catalyst. They are waiting for an economic signal.

The technical picture tells a similar story. Bitcoin trades below the $80,000 to $81,500 resistance zone, which aligns with the estimated cost basis for ETF and corporate treasury holders. A sustained failure to reclaim that zone keeps the bias bearish and puts $77,600 in play, a level Glassnode identifies as the True Market Mean. On the total market cap chart, $2.68 trillion is the immediate pivot. A hold above that level could open a rebound toward $2.74 trillion. A break below risks testing the $2.6 trillion to $2.64 trillion range. These are not arbitrary lines. They are levels where holders have shown conviction before, and where the next battle will take place.

My point of view is that this moment is a healthy but uncomfortable reset. It exposes 2 weaknesses that the bullish narrative prefers to ignore. The first is that institutional demand through ETFs is far more fragile than the adoption story admits. The second is that leverage remains a permanent feature of this asset class, and it turns ordinary corrections into cascade events. Neither weakness is fatal. Both argue for humility about how quickly Bitcoin can decouple from the broader financial system. The correlation with the S&P 500 is not a temporary anomaly. It is the current regime.

The near-term outlook is bearish below $80,000, but that bearishness is conditional. The Fed could change the mood in a single statement. The daily close relative to $80,000 and the policy language on October 28 will decide whether this is a brief shakeout or the start of a deeper move toward $77,600. My view is that the next leg will come from policymakers, not crypto developers, ETF issuers, or on-chain metrics. Bitcoin’s short-term fate is not in its own hands. This sell-off reveals that uncomfortable truth with unusual clarity.

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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