December 12th, 2025

From quantitative tightening to quantitative crypto: How policy shifts are rewriting market rules

The Federal Reserve’s less hawkish stance is acting as a catalyst for renewed investor confidence across both traditional and digital asset classes. This shift is occurring as part of a broader recalibration of macro expectations, liquidity dynamics, and institutional posture toward risk.

For those engaged in the evolution of financial systems, particularly at the intersection of decentralised infrastructure and macro policy, the current moment offers insight into how legacy market frameworks are beginning to accommodate the emerging crypto native paradigm, albeit cautiously.

The Fed’s latest policy update, which shows a more dovish tilt relative to earlier guidance, has brought a degree of optimism to markets already sensitive to changes in interest rate trajectories. The decision to implement a 25 basis point rate cut, along with a pause in quantitative tightening, signals that central authorities believe inflationary pressures may be easing enough to allow a recalibration of monetary policy.

This shift coincides with an increase in US initial jobless claims, which rose by 44,000 to 236,000 in the week ending December 6, 2025, exceeding forecasts. Such labour market softness strengthens the case for a more accommodative stance from the Fed, consistent with UOB’s projection of two rate reductions in the second and third quarters of 2026, bringing the Fed Funds Target Rate to 3.25 per cent by the end of 2026.

Equity markets showed a mixed reaction, reflecting relief over the Fed’s stance and caution regarding ongoing macro uncertainties. The Dow Jones rose 1.34 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.21 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.26 per cent. This divergence suggests a rotation away from growth-oriented equities toward value and cyclical exposures. A similar dynamic is visible in crypto markets, where Bitcoin’s dominance has increased to 58.75 per cent.

Investors appear to be favouring established, large-cap digital assets as relatively safer options within a volatile risk landscape. This preference for perceived stability aligns with broader portfolio strategies that emphasise quality US equities while leaning toward non-US value and mid-cap exposures.

Fixed income markets also responded positively to the Fed’s policy shift, with US Treasury yields declining. The ten-year yield fell more than 1 basis point to 4.14 per cent, and the two-year yield dropped more than 3 basis points to 3.52 per cent. These movements indicate growing investor appetite for longer duration assets as yield differentials narrow and the path of future rate cuts becomes clearer. Bond yields are becoming attractive again from a strategic perspective, supporting allocations to high-quality fixed income as a counterbalance to equity and crypto volatility.

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar weakened, with USD/JPY falling 0.3 per cent to 155.48 in its second consecutive session of decline. This weakness is consistent with expectations of further Japanese yen strength as the Bank of Japan signals plans to raise rates in December, narrowing the yield gap with the US.

In commodities, divergent trends emerged. Brent crude fell 1.49 per cent to close at US$61.28 per barrel as market attention shifted to potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace discussions. Gold rose 1.2 per cent to US$2,880.08 per ounce, reinforcing its role as a defensive hedge in uncertain macro environments.

In Asia, regional equities mostly closed lower following the Fed’s rate cut announcement, though early trading showed mixed performance. The strategic outlook remains overweight on Chinese equities, using a barbell approach that combines exposure to tech innovators and high dividend plays.

Against this macro backdrop, the crypto market rose 2.28 per cent in the last 24 hours, maintaining a seven-day uptrend of 0.3 per cent, though still 9 per cent below its 30-day average. This rebound appears driven not by retail speculation but by institutional momentum and favourable liquidity conditions.

Binance continues to lead global Bitcoin trading volume with a 35.4 per cent share, reflecting its established infrastructure and role as a liquidity hub. More notably, JPMorgan’s execution of a debt deal on Solana during Breakpoint 2025 marks an important moment in institutional adoption of blockchain infrastructure beyond asset speculation. This suggests Solana can support more complex financial instruments, strengthening its credibility among traditional finance participants.

US Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$223 million in inflows, the highest in 20 days, indicating renewed institutional demand for regulated crypto exposure. These flows act as a gauge of professional investor sentiment and show that macro tailwinds are influencing capital allocation decisions. Bitcoin’s price action, however, remains closely tied to equity movements, with a 0.85 correlation to the S&P 500. This dependence highlights a vulnerability: despite gaining institutional legitimacy, crypto has not yet separated itself from traditional risk-on and risk-off dynamics. The recent drop in Bitcoin to US$109,000 during a tech sector selloff illustrates this.

Another factor is the sharp rise in derivatives leverage. Perpetual futures open interest increased 11.6 per cent to US$87.9 billion, while funding rates rose 102 per cent within 24 hours. Bitcoin liquidations reached US$95 million, with 77 per cent coming from short positions, indicating strong bullish momentum but also heightened risk of a leveraged long squeeze. The seven-day RSI of 53 suggests scope for further upside if momentum persists and macro conditions remain supportive.

In conclusion, the current rally reflects a combination of institutional engagement and macro liquidity. However, it continues to unfold within a structure still linked to traditional markets. The Fed’s shift provides short-term support, but sustainability depends on whether crypto can develop independent price drivers rooted in utility, adoption, and network effects.

Key levels to watch include Bitcoin’s US$93,000 resistance and the ETH/BTC ratio, which could indicate altcoin rotation. Solana’s ability to maintain institutional interest after Breakpoint will also be important. While conditions have improved, the market’s structural dependencies and elevated leverage call for cautious optimism rather than strong enthusiasm.

Source: https://e27.co/from-quantitative-tightening-to-quantitative-crypto-how-policy-shifts-are-rewriting-market-rules-20251212/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

November 28th, 2025

Crypto’s triple threat: Exchange hack, technical rejection, and Fed policy fog

The crypto market’s 1.24 per cent decline over the past 24 hours reflects a convergence of distinct yet interlocking pressures: security vulnerabilities, technical resistance, and macroeconomic ambiguity. All of this unfolds against the backdrop of a quiet US holiday week. While the broader seven-day trend remains in positive territory at plus 4.26 per cent, the short-term retracement underscores the fragility of risk sentiment in an environment where liquidity thins, correlations tighten, and geopolitical shocks reverberate through digital asset markets with amplified force.

This week’s bearish tilt lies in the Upbit hack, a stark reminder that even regulated, institutionally backed exchanges remain high-value targets for sophisticated threat actors. On November 27, South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency platform confirmed a theft of US$30.4 million in digital assets, with early forensic evidence pointing squarely to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. This attribution carries weight not only because of its geopolitical implications but also due to the group’s notorious track record of targeting crypto infrastructure to fund regime activities.

The market’s immediate reaction, a plunge into Extreme Fear as measured by the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 20, demonstrates how legacy concerns about custody and exchange security continue to haunt an asset class striving for mainstream legitimacy. Investors responded by rotating capital toward perceived safe havens within the crypto universe, notably Bitcoin, whose dominance rose to 58.61 per cent. This flight to relative stability highlights a recurring pattern. When trust in centralised intermediaries erodes, decentralised base-layer assets often benefit, even if only temporarily.

Compounding this security-driven caution was a decisive technical breakdown in Bitcoin’s price structure. For days, US$92,000 had served as a critical psychological and structural resistance level. The failure to sustain a breakout above this threshold triggered a cascade of algorithmic sell orders, resulting in US$20.41 million in liquidations, predominantly short positions caught off guard by the initial dip but unable to recover as momentum faded. Technical indicators further reinforced the bearish undertone. While the 14-day RSI at 42.63 remains technically neutral, it shows a clear loss of upward momentum, slipping from overbought territory earlier in the week.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram, though still positive at plus 20.24 billion, presents a troubling divergence. Price action contradicts the bullish signal implied by the indicator, suggesting a weakening of buyers’ conviction. Compounding the issue, derivatives open interest fell by nearly 5 per cent, signalling that leveraged traders are stepping back, a classic sign of risk aversion ahead of major macroeconomic events.

This brings us to the third pillar of today’s market dynamics: macro correlation and policy uncertainty. Despite the US equity markets being closed for Thanksgiving, crypto did not trade in isolation. Its seven-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100, measured via the QQQ ETF, has surged to an unusually tight 0.92. This near-perfect linkage means that even in the absence of US equity trading, crypto remains hostage to the same macro narratives driving tech stocks, namely, the path of Federal Reserve policy. Recent US jobs data came in stronger than expected, tempering market expectations for aggressive rate cuts.

While UOB still anticipates a 25 basis point reduction at the December 17 FOMC meeting, the probability has softened from near-certainty to approximately 85 per cent. This shift matters deeply for crypto, which has increasingly functioned as a risk-sensitive asset class. The slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, dropping to just US$21 million on November 26 compared to US$128 million on prior high-volume days, reflects institutional hesitation. With the Fed entering its pre-meeting blackout period this weekend through December 12, 2025, traders are left to navigate a policy vacuum, relying on lagging indicators and thin holiday liquidity to set prices.

That thin liquidity has magnified market volatility. Total 24-hour trading volume across major exchanges fell by 21.5 per cent, a typical seasonal pattern during US holidays, but one that exacerbates price swings when large orders enter the market. In such environments, even modest sell pressure, whether from hacked assets being offloaded or leveraged positions unwinding, can trigger outsized moves. This dynamic is particularly acute in crypto, where market depth remains shallower than in traditional equities or FX markets, despite growing institutional participation.

Within this short-term turbulence, structural undercurrents remain supportive. The broader macro environment still points toward impending monetary easing. Bond markets signal renewed appetite for fixed income, with UOB noting that spread widening has made quality bonds attractive again, a precursor to rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar has held steady, and Asian currencies are gaining modest ground, buoyed by easing trade tensions and a stable Chinese yuan. These factors create a more favourable external backdrop for risk assets, including crypto, once the immediate fog of uncertainty lifts.

Looking ahead, three variables will dictate the market’s next directional move. First, developments in the Upbit investigation could either calm nerves if authorities confirm containment and recovery efforts or deepen panic if stolen funds begin circulating widely. Second, Bitcoin’s ability to hold the 89,080 dollar level, which corresponds to the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement of its recent rally, will serve as a critical technical support.

A breakdown below this level could invite further liquidations and test deeper support zones. Third, and most importantly, Friday’s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will offer the clearest signal yet on whether December’s anticipated rate cut remains on track. A softer print would likely reignite risk appetite across equities, bonds, and crypto alike, while a hotter-than-expected reading could extend the current period of caution.

In sum, today’s dip is not a reversal of trend but a recalibration, a moment of hesitation amid overlapping uncertainties. The crypto market, now deeply enmeshed in the global macro framework, cannot escape the gravitational pull of Fed policy, tech sector sentiment, or geopolitical risk. Its resilience over the past week, despite the Upbit breach and technical rejection, suggests underlying demand remains intact.

The challenge for market participants lies in distinguishing transient noise from structural shifts. In a world where digital assets increasingly mirror traditional financial cycles, patience and precision will determine who navigates this transitional phase most successfully.

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-triple-threat-exchange-hack-technical-rejection-and-fed-policy-fog-20251128/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

October 9th, 2025

Redefining risk: Monetary policy, crypto maturation, and the new safe havens

The convergence of Federal Reserve policy expectations, cryptocurrency market maturation, and ongoing geopolitical challenges has created a multi-layered investment environment where traditional risk metrics are being redefined.

Federal Reserve policy evolution and market response

The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes have revealed a central bank caught between competing economic pressures, with officials displaying marked division over the appropriate course of monetary policy. The decision to implement a quarter-point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of four per cent to 4.25 per cent, represents just the beginning of what appears to be a carefully orchestrated policy recalibration. Most committee members expressed support for additional rate reductions throughout the remainder of 2025, though this consensus masks deeper disagreements about the pace and extent of such cuts.

The appointment of Stephen Miran as the newest Fed governor has introduced a particularly dovish voice to the committee, with his advocacy for more aggressive half-point reductions reflecting broader concerns about economic momentum. This internal debate is occurring against the backdrop of a labor market showing signs of deceleration, with initial jobless claims rising moderately to 224,269 in late September. The economic data blackout caused by the ongoing government shutdown has created additional uncertainty, potentially forcing Fed officials to make decisions with incomplete information.

The market’s interpretation of Fed policy has been notably positive for risk assets, with the expectation of continued monetary easing providing support for both equities and alternative investments. Treasury yields have remained relatively stable despite rate cut expectations, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.12 per cent and the two-year yield at 3.58 per cent. This yield curve positioning suggests that markets are pricing in a measured approach to monetary easing rather than emergency-style cuts.

Cryptocurrency market institutional integration

The cryptocurrency market’s performance through early October 2025 represents a fundamental shift toward institutional legitimisation, with Bitcoin ETF inflows reaching unprecedented levels and establishing new benchmarks for institutional participation. The seven-day inflow streak totalling over US$5 billion into US spot Bitcoin ETFs demonstrates a level of institutional commitment that extends well beyond speculative positioning. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust alone captured US$969.9 million on a single day in October, reflecting the scale of institutional capital allocation.

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation of US$4.26 trillion, with Bitcoin trading near US$122,000-US$124,000 after touching highs above US$126,000, represents a maturation of the asset class that goes beyond retail speculation. The 24-hour crypto-Nasdaq correlation of +0.71 indicates that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like other risk assets, responding to macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy expectations rather than operating in isolation[provided data].

The Binance ecosystem rally, with BNB surging 27.97 per cent weekly to claim the third-largest cryptocurrency position by market capitalisation, illustrates the diverse nature of crypto market growth. BNB Chain’s transaction volumes have quadrupled since mid-2025, with PancakeSwap processing nearly US$80 billion in September volume, highlighting the infrastructure development supporting this growth. The total value locked across BNB Chain DeFi protocols reaching US$9 billion demonstrates real economic activity rather than purely speculative trading.

Currency market disruption and safe haven dynamics

The Japanese yen’s dramatic weakness, with USD/JPY reaching 152.68 and extending gains for five consecutive sessions, reflects fundamental shifts in both monetary policy expectations and fiscal policy direction. The surprise victory of Sanae Takaichi in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election has introduced significant uncertainty about Japan’s economic policy trajectory, with markets interpreting her pro-stimulus stance as potentially inflationary and yen-negative.

The yen’s decline is particularly significant given its traditional role as a safe-haven currency, with the weakening suggesting that investors are reassessing traditional safe-haven relationships in light of fiscal expansion concerns. The possibility of increased government spending under Takaichi’s leadership, combined with the Bank of Japan’s reluctance to tighten monetary policy aggressively, creates a perfect storm for yen weakness.

Gold’s surge past US$4,000 per ounce for the first time, reaching US$4,044.09 with gains of 1.52 per cent, represents a recalibration of safe-haven demand away from traditional currencies toward hard assets. The precious metal’s 54 per cent year-to-date gain, following a 27 per cent increase in 2024, reflects not just geopolitical uncertainty but also concerns about fiat currency stability and central bank policy effectiveness. Silver’s concurrent rally to record highs above US$49 per ounce demonstrates that demand for precious metals extends across the complex.

Energy markets and geopolitical risk assessment

The energy sector’s performance reflects the complex interplay between geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and the effectiveness of sanctions. Brent crude’s movement to US$66.25 per barrel, with gains of 1.2 per cent, occurs against a backdrop of intensifying Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and ongoing uncertainty about sanctions implementation. The targeting of Russian refineries has reduced processing capacity by approximately 10 per cent, creating supply chain disruptions that extend beyond crude oil to refined products.

The effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russian energy exports continues to evolve, with Russia managing to redirect substantial volumes to non-sanctioned buyers while accepting deeper price discounts. Russian seaborne crude exports to Price Cap Coalition countries have dropped by 91 per cent, but exports to non-coalition countries have increased by 67 per cent, demonstrating the limited global impact of unilateral sanctions. The maintenance of Russian crude shipments near 16-month highs, despite ongoing military conflict and infrastructure attacks, illustrates the resilience of global energy supply chains.

Market correlation dynamics and risk assessment

The evolving correlation patterns between asset classes reveal fundamental changes in how markets assess and price risk. The negative correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq of -4.3 per cent as of July 2025, followed by the recent positive correlation of +0.71, demonstrates the dynamic nature of crypto-traditional asset relationships[provided data]. This correlation volatility suggests that Bitcoin is transitioning between different market roles – sometimes behaving as a risk asset correlated with technology stocks, other times functioning as an alternative store of value.

The relationship between gold and other safe-haven assets is also evolving, with gold’s outperformance occurring simultaneously with dollar strength rather than weakness. This decoupling suggests that investors are seeking alternatives to all fiat currencies rather than simply rotating between traditional safe havens. The gold-silver ratio dynamics, with silver outperforming gold on a percentage basis, indicate broad-based precious metals demand rather than flight-to-quality concentrated in gold alone.

Institutional flow dynamics and market structure

The scale of institutional flows into both cryptocurrency and precious metals markets represents a structural shift in portfolio allocation that extends beyond cyclical positioning. Global crypto ETF inflows of US$5.95 billion in a single week, led by US$5 billion in US inflows, demonstrate the magnitude of institutional reallocation. The diversification across Bitcoin (US$3.55 billion), Ethereum (US$1.48 billion), Solana (US$706 million), and XRP (US$219 million) indicates a sophisticated institutional approach rather than concentrated Bitcoin positioning.

The precious metals market is experiencing similar institutional attention, with global gold ETF inflows reaching US$64 billion year-to-date and a record US$17.3 billion in September alone. This institutional participation is occurring alongside central bank purchases, with China and other nations reducing Treasury holdings in favour of gold reserves. The combination of institutional and sovereign demand creates a support level for precious metals that extends beyond traditional economic cycles.

Technology sector integration and network effects

The growth in blockchain network activity, particularly on BNB Chain, illustrates the maturation of cryptocurrency infrastructure beyond speculative trading. The quadrupling of BNB Chain transactions since mid-2025, combined with the success of decentralised applications and the growth of the DeFi ecosystem, demonstrates real economic utility. The launch of new token launch platforms and the integration of Layer-2 solutions indicate ongoing infrastructure development that supports long-term adoption.

The correlation between network activity and token performance, evident in BNB’s rise to third-largest cryptocurrency status, suggests that utility-driven value creation is becoming increasingly important relative to speculation. The US$154 billion market capitalisation achieved by BNB reflects not just trading demand but the economic value generated by the underlying blockchain infrastructure.

The implications of this market environment extend well beyond short-term trading opportunities. The convergence of institutional cryptocurrency adoption, precious metals accumulation, and currency market disruption suggests a fundamental reassessment of monetary systems and store of value concepts. The Federal Reserve’s policy uncertainty, combined with fiscal policy concerns globally, is driving institutional portfolio diversification that may prove persistent rather than cyclical.

Looking ahead, the sustainability of these trends depends heavily on the resolution of several key uncertainties. The path of Federal Reserve policy, the effectiveness of international sanctions regimes, the stability of currency relationships, and the continued development of alternative financial infrastructure will all play crucial roles in determining whether current market dynamics represent temporary dislocations or permanent structural changes. The upcoming CPI data release, when government operations resume, will provide critical information about the sustainability of current monetary policy expectations and their impact on cross-asset correlations.

The market environment reflects a world where traditional relationships between risk, return, and correlation are being redefined by technological innovation, policy uncertainty, and evolving geopolitical realities. Institutional investors are adapting by diversifying across asset classes that were previously considered uncorrelated or speculative, while maintaining exposure to traditional markets through ETF structures that provide regulatory compliance and operational efficiency.

Source: https://e27.co/redefining-risk-monetary-policy-crypto-maturation-and-the-new-safe-havens-20251009/