Tag Archives: rally

The US$71000 Bitcoin bounce lacks foundation but Japan’s rally has real teeth

The US$71000 Bitcoin bounce lacks foundation but Japan’s rally has real teeth

Asian markets delivered a powerful statement of confidence on Monday, February 9, 2026, as investors embraced a wave of fiscal optimism sweeping across the region. Japan led the charge with extraordinary force as the Nikkei 225 surged more than 2700 points in a single session to reach an intraday historic peak of 57337.07. This remarkable advance followed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory, which immediately reshaped market expectations toward aggressive fiscal stimulus and potential tax cuts.

The political mandate translated directly into investor enthusiasm, particularly for technology and financial shares, which absorbed most of the buying interest. This Japanese momentum proved contagious, creating a positive feedback loop that lifted markets from Shanghai to Sydney as regional investors recalibrated their outlook toward growth rather than caution.

China participated meaningfully in this regional uplift, with the Shanghai Composite climbing 1.25 per cent to approach the 4100 level. The advance carried particular significance because it coincided with the release of consumer price index data showing inflation at 0.8 per cent year over year. This reading suggested a subtle but important shift away from the deflationary pressures that had constrained Chinese markets for an extended period.

Investors interpreted the data as evidence that Beijing’s economic stabilisation efforts might finally be gaining traction, providing a foundation for cautious optimism even amid ongoing structural challenges. The modest inflation print provided a psychological pivot point, allowing market participants to envision a scenario in which domestic demand could gradually reawaken, supporting corporate earnings and asset values across the Chinese equity landscape.

Australia completed the regional trifecta with the S&P ASX 200 closing substantially higher at 8875.10. This performance proved especially notable given that the Reserve Bank of Australia had recently raised interest rates to 3.85 per cent, a move that typically pressures equity valuations. The market demonstrated resilience, absorbing the hawkish monetary policy signal while focusing instead on the broader global risk environment emanating from Tokyo and reinforced by developments in other major economies.

Australian financial and resources stocks benefited from synchronised regional strength, while the currency remained stable against the yen and the dollar, suggesting investors viewed the rally as sustainable rather than speculative. This ability to rally despite tighter monetary conditions underscored the depth of the sentiment shift across Asia-Pacific markets.

The positive sentiment extended beyond Asia as global markets positioned for continued strength. Wall Street futures indicated a constructive open with Dow Jones futures climbing more than 100 points following the index’s historic first-ever close above 50000 on the previous Friday. European markets exhibited cautious optimism, with the STOXX 600 hovering near the 600-point record, reflecting a synchronised global risk appetite.

Commodities participated vigorously in this broad advance as gold breached the symbolic US$5,000 threshold, reaching a weekly high of US$5,037 per ounce before consolidating around US$5,022. Crude oil stabilised as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased, removing a persistent risk premium from energy markets. This synchronised global move suggested investors were pricing in a coordinated economic expansion rather than isolated regional strength.

Amid broader environmental risks, the cryptocurrency market recorded a modest but telling advance, rising 0.86 per cent to reach a total valuation of US$2.39 trillion over 24 hours. The move carried distinctive characteristics that revealed crypto’s evolving relationship with traditional markets. Most significantly, the sector demonstrated a 94 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 over the past week, underscoring how digital assets have become tightly integrated into macro-driven market movements rather than operating as an independent asset class.

The primary catalyst for the bounce came from an unverified claim by CNBC’s Jim Cramer, who suggested President Trump would establish a United States Bitcoin reserve, with purchases made at the US$60,000 level. Though entirely speculative, this narrative generated immediate buying pressure, lifting Bitcoin above US$71,000 and pulling the broader market upward in its wake.

Beneath this rumour-driven surface, the rally found genuine technical support. The market had entered deeply oversold territory, with a seven-day relative strength index of just 27, creating fertile conditions for a corrective bounce. Simultaneously, on-chain data revealed substantial accumulation activity, as a whale withdrew 3,500 Bitcoin, equivalent to US$249 million, from the Binance exchange. This combination of extreme oversold conditions and significant institutional-scale buying provided a foundation that extended beyond mere speculation, suggesting some sophisticated participants viewed current levels as attractive entry points despite the absence of fundamental catalysts.

The near-term outlook for both traditional and digital markets now hinges on confirmation of catalysts. For Asian equities, the sustainability of the rally depends on whether Prime Minister Takaichi’s administration moves swiftly to implement concrete fiscal measures that validate current optimism.

For cryptocurrencies, the entire advance remains precariously balanced on an unverified political rumour, making the move inherently fragile. Bitcoin must hold above US$71,000 to maintain bullish momentum, with a break above US$75,000 potentially extending gains toward the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level corresponding to a US$2.4 trillion total market capitalisation. Conversely, a rejection below US$68,000 would invalidate the bounce, signalling a return to distribution patterns.

My perspective on this market environment recognises two distinct but parallel narratives. Asia’s rally stems from tangible political developments with clear policy implications, creating a foundation for sustained strength if follow-through occurs. The cryptocurrency advance, however, represents pure sentiment speculation lacking institutional or regulatory anchors. This divergence matters profoundly because policy-driven rallies typically exhibit greater durability than rumour-driven spikes.

Yet the exceptionally high correlation between crypto and equities reveals an uncomfortable truth for digital asset investors: their fortunes remain tethered to broader macro sentiment rather than blockchain-specific developments. The market has not achieved true independence; instead, it functions as a high-beta extension of risk assets.

The critical question facing investors now centres on resilience. Will Asian markets maintain their advance when fiscal details emerge, potentially revealing implementation challenges or budget constraints? Will cryptocurrency markets hold their gains if the Bitcoin reserve rumour is officially denied by the White House or the Treasury Department?

The answer likely depends on whether underlying macroeconomic conditions continue to support risk assets generally. With inflation showing signs of stabilisation in China, global growth indicators improving, and geopolitical risks receding temporarily, the environment remains conducive to risk-taking. Investors must recognise that Japan’s policy-driven rally possesses fundamentally stronger underpinnings than crypto’s rumour-fuelled bounce. One represents anticipation of real economic stimulus, the other reflects speculative positioning on unverified political theatre.

Both may rise together in a risk on environment, but their paths will inevitably diverge when market conditions test their respective foundations. The coming days will reveal whether this surge marks the beginning of a sustained expansion or merely a temporary reprieve within a more complex market cycle.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-us71000-bitcoin-bounce-lacks-foundation-but-japans-rally-has-real-teeth-20260209/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Markets on edge: AI rally fizzles as crypto plunges below US$2.42 trillion

Markets on edge: AI rally fizzles as crypto plunges below US$2.42 trillion

Investors grappled with stretched valuations and growing doubts about the sustainability of Wall Street’s AI-driven rally. The mood shifted noticeably risk-off, not because of any sudden macroeconomic shock, but due to a quiet accumulation of concerns. Chief among them was whether the market had priced in too much optimism too soon. This unease was compounded by mixed US economic data that painted a picture of an economy slowing just enough to unsettle markets without triggering outright alarm.

The ADP employment report for January showed only 22,000 jobs added, well below the expected 45,000, signalling potential softness in the labour market. At the same time, the ISM Services index came in slightly above expectations at 53.8, suggesting pockets of resilience in the services sector. Together, these indicators created ambiguity, enough to fuel speculation that the Federal Reserve might need to act sooner rather than later, especially with Chair Jerome Powell set to step down in May.

Equity markets reflected this tension. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up by 0.53 per cent, buoyed by more defensive or cyclical components, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.51 per cent and the Nasdaq plunged 1.51 per cent. The divergence underscored a rotation away from the tech-heavy leadership that has dominated since late 2024. Software stocks bore the brunt of the selloff, revealing investor fatigue with sky-high multiples and limited near-term earnings visibility for most companies outside a narrow band of AI beneficiaries.

The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, climbed to 18.64, its highest level in weeks, confirming rising anxiety beneath the surface. In this environment, broadening exposure beyond mega-cap tech makes strategic sense. Hence the renewed appeal of equal-weighted or low-volatility equity indices, as well as selective cyclicals like financials and industrials, and defensives such as certain healthcare segments.

Bond markets offered little clarity. Treasury yields moved in opposite directions. The 2-year yield fell 1.6 basis points to 3.553 per cent, reflecting bets on earlier rate cuts, while the 10-year yield rose slightly to 4.274 per cent, suggesting some investors still see inflation risks lingering in the longer term. The US Treasury’s decision to hold auction sizes steady provided no new supply shocks, but it also removed any near-term catalyst for duration extension. Still, the expectation of two Fed rate cuts in the second and third quarters of 2026 supports a gradual move toward longer-duration, high-quality fixed income, particularly in developed and emerging market investment-grade debt.

Currency markets mirrored the dollar’s resilience amid uncertainty. The DXY rose 0.18 per cent to 97.616, with the greenback gaining across all G10 pairs. USD/JPY jumped to 156.86, driven partly by political developments in Japan, where Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s anticipated election win is expected to usher in aggressive fiscal and defence spending. Despite this short-term strength, the structural outlook for the dollar remains bearish. With the Fed likely to pivot toward easing while other central banks hold steady or tighten modestly, the path of least resistance for the DXY is downward. EUR/USD, currently at 1.1807, stands to benefit, as does a broader weakening of USD/JPY over time.

Commodities told a story of geopolitical risk meeting long-term fundamentals. Brent crude surged two per cent to US$68 per barrel amid conflicting signals on US-Iran relations. While diplomatic talks are scheduled in Oman, President Trump’s renewed warnings and visible military buildup in the region stoked fears of escalation. That tension could easily push oil back toward last June’s peak of US$80, even though OPEC’s planned supply increases should cap prices over the medium term.

Meanwhile, gold rose to US$4,964 per ounce and silver jumped 3.5 per cent to US$85, both benefiting from safe-haven demand and dovish rate expectations. The precious metals complex remains fundamentally strong, though prone to sharp swings as macro narratives shift.

In Asia, markets staged a mild relief rally. South Korea’s Kospi hit a record high, up 1.6 per cent, while China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.8 per cent, lifted by solar stocks reportedly boosted by visits from teams linked to SpaceX and Tesla. This subtle but telling signal pointed to renewed foreign interest in China’s green tech sector.

The crypto market buckled under macro pressure. Total market capitalisation dropped 6.61 per cent to US$2.42 trillion, led by Bitcoin’s decline. Notably, crypto’s correlation with traditional assets remains elevated, 72 per cent with the S&P 500 and 88 per cent with gold, confirming its current role as a rates- and dollar-sensitive risk asset rather than a true hedge.

A violent unwind of leveraged positions accelerated the fall, with US$654 million in liquidations in 24 hours, including US$197 million in Bitcoin alone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 11, deep into Extreme Fear territory and its lowest reading since November 2025. This suggests the market is in a capitulation phase, where price action is driven less by fundamentals and more by forced deleveraging.

The immediate focus now rests on the US$2.42 trillion support level. Holding here could spark a technical bounce toward US$2.61 trillion, the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement. But a break lower opens the door to US$2.28 trillion. With US Initial Jobless Claims due later today, any sign of labour market deterioration could reinforce expectations of Fed easing, but also deepen risk aversion in the short run.

For now, the confluence of technical breakdowns, leveraged unwinds, and souring macro sentiment has created a fragile equilibrium. The next 24 to 48 hours will be decisive in determining whether this pullback marks a healthy reset or the start of a deeper correction.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-on-edge-ai-rally-fizzles-as-crypto-plunges-below-us2-42-trillion-20260205/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Trump’s Davos reversal sparks massive relief rally in global stocks, cryptocurrencies

Trump’s Davos reversal sparks massive relief rally in global stocks, cryptocurrencies

I see a powerful reversal in global markets today, driven by a sudden calming of geopolitical waters that had only recently threatened to boil over. The primary catalyst was American President Donald Trump stepping back from the brink of a trade conflict with Europe. This immediate de-escalation saw a massive rotation back into riskier assets, effectively erasing the previous session’s sharp sell-off and highlighting just how sensitive modern markets are to political rhetoric.

My observation is that we live in an era in which a single statement from a world leader can swing billions of dollars in value in mere hours. The abandonment of tariff threats, framed around a supposed framework deal over Greenland at the World Economic Forum in Davos, instantly surged investor appetite for risk. This dynamic makes market stability a fragile thing, tethered closely to the whims of political negotiation.

US stock markets ended the day sharply higher, with every major index gaining over 1.1 per cent. The rally was broad and decisive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ascended 588.64 points, a 1.21 per cent gain, to close at 49,077.23. The S&P 500 advanced 78.76 points, or 1.16 per cent, ending at 6,875.62. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also jumped, adding 270.50 points, a 1.18 per cent rise, to reach 23,224.83. This momentum was not confined to American shores, as Asian markets also registered gains, signalling a global response to eased tensions.

Simultaneously, a potent dose of AI optimism fueled specific sectors. NVIDIA Corp. Chief Executive Jensen Huang’s statements at Davos, emphasising the critical need for multi-trillion-dollar investments in global AI infrastructure, provided a significant boost to chip stocks and related suppliers. This confluence of geopolitical relief and technological foresight created a strong bullish environment for equities.

The shift in sentiment profoundly impacted commodity markets. Safe-haven demand for gold evaporated as the fear gauge dropped, pushing the spot price down nearly one per cent to around US$4,793.63 per ounce. This followed a record peak in the previous session, perfectly illustrating gold’s traditional role as a crisis hedge. Meanwhile, crude oil prices, specifically West Texas Intermediate, edged up slightly to US$60.76 a barrel, a modest rise likely tied to broader economic optimism rather than supply-side concerns.

In the currency and bond markets, moves were more subdued but still reflected the risk-on mood. The euro was largely unchanged against the dollar, trading at US$1.1685. The Japanese yen fell slightly to 158.47 per dollar, a classic sign of receding risk aversion. The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.25 per cent, indicating slightly less demand for the safety of government debt. Investors are now keenly awaiting today’s American economic data releases, including Final GDP and Initial Jobless Claims figures, which could provide the next impetus for market movement.

The cryptocurrency market presented a fascinating, slightly divergent narrative. The broader crypto market rose 0.82 per cent over the last 24 hours, driven by unique internal dynamics involving institutional developments and derivatives activity, even as headline cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ether edged lower in the daily market snapshot, with Bitcoin trading around US$89,926.23. My view here is that the crypto market is maturing, developing drivers that are not always perfectly correlated with traditional finance’s daily movements.

The underlying strength in crypto stems from smart money accumulation. On-chain data reveals a clear divergence: Bitcoin whales, holding over 1,000 BTC, accumulated during a recent dip to US$89.4K, while smaller retail wallets sold off. This signals long-term confidence among major players, who see current levels as undervalued. The result was a 49 per cent fall in 24-hour Bitcoin liquidations to US$184.5 million, significantly reducing forced selling pressure and indicating robust underlying support.

Institutional milestones provided further bullish impetus. BitGo priced its initial public offering at US$18 per share, becoming the first major crypto custody firm to go public. This landmark event, coupled with F/m Investments’ filing to tokenise a Treasury exchange-traded fund on-chain, signals maturing infrastructure and regulatory progress. These developments attract traditional capital; indeed, TradFi inflows via ETFs remained stable, with assets under management totalling US$120.7 billion.

The derivatives market is where things get truly dynamic, if a little risky. Perpetual volume spiked 36 per cent to a massive US$1.32 trillion, with average funding rates rising 85 per cent weekly. Short-term traders are clearly leveraging bullish bets. However, open interest fell four per cent, suggesting some profit-taking after recent rallies. High funding rates, around +0.0037 per cent, also increase the inherent volatility risk, underscoring the need for careful management of this momentum.

In conclusion, today’s market activity is a powerful combination of global political relief and targeted sectoral optimism. The crypto uptick reflects strategic whale buying and institutional validation. While technical indicators show the market remains in a state of ‘Fear,’ as indicated by a CMC Index of 34, these underlying factors point toward cautious optimism prevailing.

All eyes are now on Bitcoin’s reaction as it tests the critical US$90K psychological level and on the forthcoming SEC decisions on F/m’s innovative tokenised ETF. The landscape remains complex, but for today, the bulls are firmly in control.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j