April 24th, 2025

Market wrap: A relief rally amid easing tensions and crypto resilience

Global financial markets breathed a sigh of relief this week as President Donald Trump signalled a softer stance on two critical fronts: his relationship with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and trade negotiations with China. After weeks of heightened volatility driven by tariff threats and uncertainty over US monetary policy, Trump’s announcement that he has no plans to dismiss Powell and intends to approach trade talks with China amicably sparked a robust rally across equity markets.

The S&P 500 surged 1.7 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.1 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a 2.5 per cent gain. This relief rally extended to Asian equity indices, which continued their upward trajectory this morning after five consecutive days of gains. US equity futures also point to a higher open, suggesting that investor confidence is rebounding, at least for now. However, beneath the surface, mixed signals from US Treasuries, commodities, and economic data, alongside a resilient cryptocurrency market, paint a complex picture of global risk sentiment.

The US Dollar Index, a key barometer of the greenback’s strength, rose 0.9 per cent to close at 99.844, reflecting renewed confidence in US assets following Trump’s comments. The dollar’s gains were particularly notable against safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, as investors dialled back expectations of a full-blown trade war or a crisis in US monetary policy. Yet, the Treasury market told a more nuanced story.

The yield curve flattened sharply, with the two-year Treasury yield rising 7.4 basis points to 3.871 per cent while the 10-year yield dipped 2.0 basis points to 4.381 per cent. This divergence suggests that while short-term optimism drives demand for shorter-dated Treasuries, longer-term concerns about economic growth and inflation persist. The Treasury market’s mixed performance aligns with broader uncertainties about the Federal Reserve’s next steps, particularly after Powell’s cautious remarks in recent weeks about the economic fallout from tariffs.

Commodities, meanwhile, reflected a shift away from safe-haven assets. Brent crude oil fell 2.0 per cent to US$66 per barrel, pressured by reports that some OPEC+ members are pushing for an accelerated increase in output. This development and easing trade tensions have reduced fears of supply disruptions, weighing on oil prices. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, also tumbled 2.7 per cent as risk-on sentiment took hold.

The decline in gold prices underscores a broader unwinding of defensive positioning, as investors rotate back into equities and other growth-oriented assets. However, the commodity market’s reaction also highlights the fragility of this rally—any reversal in trade negotiations or unexpected geopolitical flare-ups could quickly reignite demand for safe havens.

In Asia, economic developments were relatively subdued but supportive of the broader risk-on mood. Bank Indonesia held its benchmark 7-day reverse repo rate at 5.75 per cent, with the Deposit Facility and Lending Facility unchanged at 5.00 per cent and 6.50 per cent, respectively. This decision reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy amid global uncertainties, particularly the US-China trade conflict. Meanwhile, US economic data releases had a muted impact on markets.

The Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly improved, signalling resilience in the industrial sector, but the Services PMI came in softer than expected, hinting at uneven economic momentum. However, March’s new home sales beat expectations, providing a bright spot for the housing market and reinforcing optimism about consumer demand. These mixed signals suggest that while the US economy remains on solid footing, it is not immune to the headwinds of global trade tensions and monetary policy uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market has emerged as a standout performer, demonstrating remarkable resilience amid traditional market volatility. Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating above US$93,000, buoyed by significant institutional inflows into US spot ETFs and the launch of Twenty One Capital, a new Bitcoin Treasury company aiming to rival MicroStrategy.

Twenty One Capital debuted with an impressive 42,000 Bitcoin and plans to go public through a merger with Cantor Equity Partners, signalling growing corporate adoption of Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Recent data shows record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, underscoring a resurgence in institutional demand. Technical analysis points to a potential resistance level at US$96,100, with the psychologically significant US$100,000 milestone within reach if bullish momentum persists.

However, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has turned negative, indicating more substantial buying pressure on Binance than Coinbase. This divergence suggests that global retail and institutional investors may be driving Bitcoin’s price action differently across platforms, a dynamic worth monitoring as the cryptocurrency approaches key resistance levels.

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is also showing signs of strength, with bulls targeting the US$2,000 level as resistance weakens. After weeks of consolidation and bearish sentiment, Ethereum’s price action is gaining momentum, supported by increased on-chain activity and renewed buying pressure.

According to IntoTheBlock, Ethereum faces modest resistance near US$1,860, a key zone that could be tested soon. The cryptocurrency’s ability to decouple from traditional financial markets, even as geopolitical tensions and the US-China trade conflict intensify, is particularly encouraging for investors.

This decoupling reflects growing confidence in Ethereum’s fundamentals, including its role as the backbone of decentralised finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Posts on X highlight surging on-chain activity, with projects like Lil Pudgys and Azuki driving network engagement, while institutional accumulation of ETH further bolsters its bullish outlook.

From my perspective, the current market rally is a welcome reprieve but should be approached with cautious optimism. Trump’s conciliatory tone on Powell and China is a positive development, but his track record of unpredictable policy shifts warrants skepticism. The relief rally in equities, while robust, may be short-lived if trade negotiations falter or if Powell’s cautious stance on rate cuts reignites fears of tighter monetary policy.

The Treasury market’s flattening yield curve is a red flag, signalling that investors are bracing for potential economic slowdowns despite short-term optimism. Commodities like oil and gold reflect this uncertainty, with their declines tied to easing tensions but vulnerable to reversal if geopolitical risks resurface.

The cryptocurrency market, however, offers a compelling counter-narrative. Bitcoin and Ethereum’s resilience amid traditional market volatility underscores their growing status as alternative assets. Institutional adoption, as evidenced by Twenty One Capital’s ambitious debut and record ETF inflows, is a game-changer for Bitcoin. Ethereum’s technical strength and on-chain activity further reinforce its potential for a trend reversal.

Yet, risks remain. Bitcoin’s negative Coinbase Premium Gap suggests uneven buying pressure, and Ethereum’s US$1,860 resistance level could pose a near-term challenge. Moreover, the broader market’s sensitivity to US-China trade developments and Fed policy means that cryptocurrencies, while decoupling to some extent, are not entirely immune to macro headwinds.

Looking ahead, investors should remain vigilant. The US economy is showing pockets of strength, as seen in manufacturing and housing data, but softer services PMI and global trade uncertainties could cap upside potential. Bank Indonesia’s steady rates reflect a broader trend of central banks adopting a wait-and-see approach, which may limit monetary stimulus in the near term.

For crypto investors, Bitcoin’s US$96,100 resistance and Ethereum’s US$1,860 sell wall are critical levels to watch. If global risk sentiment continues to improve, both assets could test higher targets, but any deterioration in trade talks or Fed hawkishness could trigger a pullback.

In conclusion, the market’s current trajectory is one of cautious optimism, driven by Trump’s softer rhetoric and supported by resilient US economic data and a buoyant crypto market. However, the interplay of Treasury yields, commodities, and geopolitical risks suggests that volatility is far from over.

“I see the cryptocurrency market’s strength as a beacon of innovation and diversification in an otherwise turbulent landscape. Investors would be wise to balance their enthusiasm with a clear-eyed assessment of the macro risks ahead, particularly as the US-China trade dynamic and Fed policy continue to shape global markets.” — Anndy Lian

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-a-relief-rally-amid-easing-tensions-and-crypto-resilience-20250424/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

April 14th, 2025

From tariffs to Powell’s speech: Will crypto dips and stocks rally?

The recovery in global risk sentiment, spurred by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs (except for China), brought a much-needed sigh of relief to equity markets. Yet, beneath the surface, there’s a nagging sense that we’re not out of the woods. The bond market’s volatility, surging inflation expectations, and a weakening consumer sentiment all point to deeper uncertainties that could shape the trajectory of the global economy in the weeks and months ahead.

Let’s unpack this week’s developments and what they mean for investors, consumers, and policymakers.

The US equity markets staged an impressive rebound last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing five per cent, the S&P 500 gaining 5.7 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite surging 7.5 per cent. These gains came after a tumultuous period where markets were rattled by fears of an escalating trade war, particularly between the US and China. Trump’s decision to pause tariffs for 90 days on most trading partners, allowing time for negotiations, was a pivotal moment. It signaled a potential de-escalation, at least temporarily, and markets responded with enthusiasm. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” reflected this shift, dropping to 37 after spiking above 50 earlier in the week. That’s still elevated compared to historical norms, suggesting investors remain on edge, but it’s a far cry from the panic levels seen during the height of the tariff uncertainty.

The bond market told a different story. The selloff in US Treasuries was striking, with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping nine basis points to 4.48 per cent and the two-year yield climbing 12 basis points to 3.97 per cent. This was the largest weekly surge in yields in over two decades, a clear signal that investors are bracing for higher inflation and possibly tighter monetary policy. The ongoing US-China trade war, despite the tariff pause for other nations, continues to stoke fears of supply chain disruptions and rising costs. When goods become more expensive due to tariffs, businesses often pass those costs onto consumers, fueling inflation. The bond market’s reaction suggests that investors are betting on this scenario playing out, even if equities are basking in the tariff reprieve for now.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, closed lower last week, adding another layer of complexity. A weaker dollar typically supports commodities priced in dollars, and we saw that dynamic play out with gold soaring past US$3,200 per ounce, a two per cent gain for the week. Gold’s rally wasn’t just about a softer dollar—it was also driven by recession fears and the safe-haven demand that kicks in when trade wars escalate. Similarly, Brent crude oil jumped 2.26 per cent to settle at US$65 per barrel, buoyed by comments from US Energy Secretary Chris Wright about potentially ending Iran’s oil exports to pressure the country over its nuclear programme. Geopolitical tensions, layered on top of trade uncertainties, are keeping energy markets volatile, and that’s something I’ll be watching closely in the weeks ahead.

On the economic data front, the picture is sobering. The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April plummeted 11 per cent to 50.8, its lowest level since June 2022. This sharp decline reflects growing anxiety among Americans about the economic fallout from tariffs, rising prices, and uncertainty about jobs and growth. Even more concerning is the surge in inflation expectations, with the one-year outlook hitting 6.7 per cent, the highest since 1981. That’s a staggering figure, and it underscores the psychological impact of the trade war rhetoric and policy shifts. When consumers expect prices to keep rising, they may pull back on spending or demand higher wages, both of which can create a feedback loop that drives inflation higher. For the Federal Reserve, this is a nightmare scenario—balancing growth, inflation, and now trade-driven disruptions.

Over the weekend, the Trump administration added a twist by exempting smartphones, computers, and other tech devices from reciprocal tariffs. This move was a relief for markets, particularly in Asia, where tech supply chains are heavily integrated. Asian equity indices traded higher in early sessions today, and US equity futures pointed to a positive open. The exemption makes sense from a consumer perspective—hitting tech products with tariffs would have driven up prices for everyday goods such as iPhones and laptops, risking a backlash. But it also highlights the delicate balancing act the administration is trying to perform: projecting strength on trade while avoiding self-inflicted economic wounds. I suspect this exemption is a pragmatic nod to the reality that tech is the backbone of modern economies, and disrupting it too severely could backfire.

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech. Investors are desperate for clarity on how the Fed plans to navigate this inflationary environment, especially with consumer sentiment tanking and inflation expectations soaring. Powell has been cagey in recent comments, emphasising that the Fed is monitoring trade policies closely. If he signals a hawkish tilt—perhaps hinting at pausing rate cuts or even tightening policy to combat inflation—it could dampen the equity rally. Conversely, a dovish stance might boost stocks but risks fueling inflation further. It’s a tightrope walk, and Powell’s words will carry immense weight.

China’s first-quarter GDP and monthly activity data, due this week, will also be critical. The trade war with the US is undoubtedly weighing on China’s economy, and weaker-than-expected numbers could reignite fears of a global slowdown. Given that several markets will be closed for Good Friday, trading volumes may be thinner, potentially amplifying any market moves. My sense is that investors are in a wait-and-see mode, parsing every headline for clues about the direction of trade talks and monetary policy.

The cryptocurrency market, meanwhile, has been a mixed bag. Bitcoin slipped more than two per cent on Sunday, trading at US$83,482 during Asian hours. Ethereum fell below US$1,600, and altcoins showed varied performance. The crypto market’s sensitivity to trade policy signals is intriguing—when tariffs on Chinese electronics were floated, digital assets wobbled, likely because of fears that supply chain disruptions could hit mining hardware or broader tech sentiment. Yet, Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor remains undeterred, using social media to double down on his “Buy the Future” mantra. His latest post, timed with Bitcoin’s brief rally to US$83,246, underscores his belief that cryptocurrencies are a hedge against economic chaos. I’m skeptical about Bitcoin’s role as a reliable safe haven—it’s still too volatile and sentiment-driven—but Saylor’s conviction is a reminder of the passionate community behind it.

Ethereum’s technical picture offers some hope for bulls. After finding support at US$1,449 last week, it’s hovering around US$1,638. A close above US$1,700 could spark a rally toward US$1,861, supported by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) that’s climbing toward neutral territory. But the risk of a drop to US$1,300 looms if support breaks. XRP, meanwhile, is showing resilience, stabilizing at US$2.14 after a 14.28 per cent recovery. A break above US$2.23 could push it toward US$2.50, though it needs to hold above its 200-day EMA to sustain momentum. These technical levels matter for traders, but the bigger driver for crypto will be macro developments—trade policies, Fed signals, and global growth.

As I reflect on this week, my view is one of cautious optimism tempered by realism. The tariff pause and tech exemptions are positive steps, but the underlying tensions—US-China trade frictions, inflation fears, and consumer unease—aren’t going away. Equities may continue to climb if trade talks show progress, but the bond market’s warning signs and weak consumer sentiment suggest fragility. Gold’s strength and crypto’s volatility reflect a market searching for anchors in uncertain times. For investors, diversification and vigilance are key. For policymakers, the challenge is to avoid tipping the economy into recession while addressing legitimate trade concerns.

Source: https://e27.co/from-tariffs-to-powells-speech-will-crypto-dips-and-stocks-rally-20250414/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

January 14th, 2025

Bitcoin’s US$100K Rally: Southeast Asia’s growing crypto revolution

It’s a milestone that’s been on global cryptocurrency enthusiasts’ minds for many years. Bitcoin’s recent rally to a value of US$100,000 has helped uncover Southeast Asia’s sky-high enthusiasm for crypto adoption and development.

The scale of Bitcoin’s ongoing rally is the topic of much debate, but its resonance in Asian economies appears assured regardless of the direction that the coin takes in the months ahead.

According to the 2024 Global Crypto Adoption Index, Central & Southern Asia and Oceania (CSAO) lead the world in crypto adoption with seven of the top 20 most active nations for both centralised and decentralised finance (DeFi) protocols.

At the forefront of this growth was Indonesia, which surpassed US$30 billion (IDR 475.13 trillion) in cryptocurrency transactions between January and October 2024, representing a growth of 352.89 per cent in comparison to the same period in 2023.

However, we’re also seeing widespread change at an institutional level, which could see significant growth in the number of cryptocurrency use cases in 2025 and beyond throughout the region. With interest in crypto reaching new levels in Southeast Asia, Bitcoin is becoming more accessible than ever before.

Proliferation of crypto services

Bitcoin’s recent growth has brought a series of watershed moments for Asian adoption of crypto. In November, ZA Bank, Hong Kong’s first and largest digital bank, became the continent’s first institution to offer cryptocurrency trading services directly to retail investors.

With ZA Bank’s app, it’s possible for users to frictionlessly trade cryptoucrrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum without the need for switching platforms in the process.

In November 2024, Japanese firm AEON announced the launch of a QR code payment system on Binance’s BNB Chain with Terminus, helping to scale crypto payment accessibility in Southeast Asia.

The tools are intended to make cryptocurrency payments a seamless experience for users and merchants, and the initiative could help leverage more offline cryptocurrency payments throughout the region.

Cryptocurrency payments have been identified as a leading payment trend due to their flexibility and security qualities, and opening the door to making purchases with coins like Bitcoin represents a major step toward acceptance.

Focused on leveraging Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset to optimise financial strategies and drive stakeholder value, Sora Ventures has launched a US$150 million fund to grow Bitcoin-focused investment strategies among listed companies throughout Asia.

Targeting companies listed on major stock exchanges throughout Japan, Hong Kong, Thailand, Taiwan, and South Korea, the move is a conscious effort to replicate the success of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin reserve model in the United States.

In the month following the US Presidential election which saw both Wall Street and cryptocurrency markets embark on a rally off the back of Donald Trump’s victory, Bitcoin’s 30% growth eclipsed the 14 per cent experienced by the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), an exchange-traded fund that focuses on Wall Street’s seven largest companies by market capitalisation.

The expansion of investment options for Southeast Asia’s largest firms can open the door to better-managed growth, and the ability to embrace the historical outperformance of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin fully.

The world’s developer capital

It’s also important to highlight Southeast Asia’s invaluable role among crypto developers, with the continent surpassing North America in recent years to attain a strong market share.

Since 2015, Asia’s share of global cryptocurrency developers has rallied from just 13 per cent to 32 per cent, while North America’s market share fell from 44 per cent to 25 per cent over the same period.

While India has been a driving force in Asia’s newfound crypto dominance, nations like China, Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore have all helped to build a conducive infrastructure for crypto developers.

According to Singapore-based fund manager, Anndy Lian, the emerging markets of India and Southeast Asia where traditional banking infrastructure can be less accessible, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have helped to democratise financial services to residents.

It’s this necessity for innovation that appears to be positioning Southeast Asia at the forefront of crypto innovation, and the benefits are being reaped by retail investors and institutions alike.

According to a recent National Thailand report, nations like Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines possess high smartphone penetration rates, making cryptocurrency far more accessible during its ongoing market rally. As a result, we could see far more sustained adoption rates for crypto and DeFi services developed locally.

Challenges remain

Despite clear indications that Southeast Asia is embracing the ongoing cryptocurrency rally more enthusiastically than ever before, a number of challenges remain.

Cryptocurrency is famously volatile and open to exploitation among unwitting users. With Bitcoin’s historical bull runs giving way to substantial losses, both retail and institutional adopters will need to be wary of buying into crypto.

Source: https://e27.co/southeast-asia-leads-world-in-crypto-adoption-as-bitcoins-us100000-rally-presents-new-opportunities-and-challenges-20250103/