Tag Archives: reshaping

From Bitcoin to bonds: How the Iran conflict is reshaping investment strategies

From Bitcoin to bonds: How the Iran conflict is reshaping investment strategies

The recent US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, announced by President Donald Trump on Saturday, have thrust the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict into a new and dangerous phase, sending ripples of uncertainty through global markets. Investors, already grappling with mixed signals from US stock performance and upcoming economic indicators, are now forced to weigh the potential fallout of this unprecedented escalation.

In my view, this moment represents a critical juncture—not just for financial markets, but for the broader trajectory of global stability and economic health. Below, I’ll unpack the myriad factors at play, offering a detailed exploration of how these developments are shaping the world as we know it.

The geopolitical powder keg: US strikes and Iran’s retaliation

The announcement that the United States had directly entered the Iran-Israel conflict by launching attacks on three Iranian nuclear sites—Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan—caught markets and analysts off guard. This operation, executed in coordination with Israel and involving over 125 aircraft and bunker-buster munitions, marks a significant departure from the US’s previous role as a diplomatic and indirect supporter in this regional standoff.

These strikes targeted key components of Iran’s nuclear program, a move that signals a bold escalation aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. The immediate aftermath has been anything but reassuring. Iran responded swiftly with missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities, coupled with threats to target US military bases in the Gulf. This tit-for-tat retaliation has heightened fears of a broader conflict that could engulf the Middle East, a region already fraught with tension.

This escalation is a double-edged sword. On one hand, the US and Israel may view it as a necessary step to deter Iran’s nuclear progress, potentially stabilising the region in the long term by weakening a perceived threat. On the other hand, the immediate risk of miscalculation or overreaction could plunge the region—and by extension, the global economy—into chaos.

The Middle East is a linchpin for global oil markets, and any disruption here could send shockwaves far beyond its borders. As an observer, I can’t help but feel a sense of unease about how delicately balanced this situation is and how quickly it could spiral out of control depending on Iran’s next move.

Market reactions: A mixed bag of caution and resilience

The financial markets have responded to these developments with a blend of caution and measured resilience, reflecting the uncertainty that defines this moment. On Friday, before the US strikes were announced, US stock markets closed with mixed results: the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a modest gain of 0.08 per cent, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slipped by 0.22 per cent and 0.51 per cent, respectively.

This uneven performance hints at investor hesitation even before the weekend’s bombshell news. By Monday, as the new trading week began, Asian equities opened lower, and US equity index futures pointed to a downward start for Wall Street, suggesting that the geopolitical shock is starting to weigh more heavily on global risk sentiment.

What strikes me here is the flight to safety that’s becoming evident in other asset classes. US Treasury yields, for instance, were mostly lower on Friday, with the 10-year yield dipping to 4.37 per cent and the 2-year yield falling to 3.90 per cent. This decline in yields—a drop of more than 1 basis point for the 10-year and over three basis points for the two-year—signals that investors are piling into government bonds, traditionally seen as a safe haven during times of uncertainty.

Gold, another classic refuge, held steady at US$3,368.68 per ounce, showing little movement, while Brent crude oil unexpectedly fell by 2.33 per cent to US$77.01 per barrel. The muted reaction in oil prices surprised me, given the Middle East’s critical role in global energy supplies. It suggests that, for now, investors aren’t pricing in a significant disruption, but that could change in an instant if the conflict intensifies.

Cryptocurrencies: A barometer of risk appetite

The cryptocurrency market, often a bellwether for risk appetite, has not been immune to the turbulence. Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value, took a sharp dive on Sunday, dropping 4.13 per cent to US$99,237 by mid-morning Eastern Time. Ether, the second-largest, fared even worse, plummeting 8.52 per cent to US$2,199. This sell-off sent Bitcoin below the psychological US$100,000 support level, a threshold that traders watch closely.

Popular trader Cas Abbe, in a post on X, warned that Bitcoin could slide further to the US$93,000–US$94,000 range before finding a bottom. The weakness didn’t stop with Bitcoin; it dragged other major altcoins, such as ETH, XRP, SOL, and HYPE, below their respective support levels, signalling a broader souring of sentiment in the cryptocurrency space.

Yet, there’s a glimmer of hope—or perhaps speculative optimism-in Bitcoin’s late-Sunday recovery, as it climbed back above US$101,000. To me, this rebound, alongside the modest moves in gold and subdued reactions in oil and equity futures, hints that some traders are betting on a contained conflict rather than a sustained geopolitical crisis.

Still, the volatility in cryptocurrencies underscores a broader risk-off mood. As someone who has closely followed these markets, I see this as a reflection of how intertwined digital assets have become with global events—once seen as a fringe phenomenon, they’re now a real-time gauge of investor sentiment.

Economic data: The next piece of the puzzle

Amid this geopolitical maelstrom, the US economic calendar is poised to deliver critical data that could either calm or inflame market jitters. Tonight, we’ll see the preliminary S&P Global US PMI readings for June, which measure the health of the manufacturing and service sectors, alongside existing home sales data for May, a key indicator of consumer confidence and the vitality of the housing market.

A strong PMI could signal that the US economy is holding up despite external pressures, potentially buoying investor confidence. Conversely, a weak reading might stoke fears of a slowdown, amplifying the uncertainty already swirling around the Iran-Israel conflict.

The housing data, meanwhile, offers a window into how American consumers are faring. A drop in existing home sales could suggest that high interest rates and economic uncertainty are eroding confidence, while a robust figure might counterbalance some of the geopolitical gloom.

Personally, I’m inclined to think these numbers will be pivotal—not just for markets, but for the Federal Reserve’s next moves, which I’ll explore shortly. In a world where every data point is scrutinised, tonight’s releases feel like a potential tipping point.

The Fed’s delicate dance: Rates, inflation, and oil

Speaking of the Federal Reserve, Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s recent comments have added another layer to this intricate narrative. On Friday, he noted that inflation was softening to a level where the Fed could contemplate cutting interest rates at its July meeting.

This dovish tilt sent US Treasury yields lower and contributed to a 0.20 per cent decline in the US Dollar Index to 98.71. For me, Waller’s remarks are a ray of light in an otherwise stormy outlook—lower rates could stimulate an economy facing headwinds from tariffs and now geopolitical risks. But here’s the catch: the Iran-Israel conflict could upend this calculus.

If the conflict disrupts oil supplies—say, through Iranian retaliation targeting Gulf infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz—oil prices could surge. Analysts from JPMorgan have cautioned that an all-out conflict might push oil above US$100 per barrel, a level not seen since 2022.

Higher energy costs would act like a tax on consumers and businesses, potentially reigniting inflation just as the Fed hopes to tame it. In my view, this puts the Fed in a bind: cut rates to support growth and risk fueling inflation, or hold steady and risk choking an economy already under strain. It’s a tightrope walk, and the geopolitical wild card makes it all the more precarious.

The bigger picture: Global economic risks and opportunities

Zooming out, the implications of this conflict extend far beyond immediate market swings. The Middle East accounts for a substantial portion of global oil production, and any prolonged disruption could significantly impact economies that rely heavily on energy imports.

Higher oil prices would squeeze consumer spending, slow economic growth, and possibly tip the world into a stagflationary spiral, characterised by stagnant growth paired with rising prices. For the US, already navigating Trump’s tariff-driven economic policies, this could compound existing challenges, creating a perfect storm of inflationary pressures and reduced demand.

Yet, there’s a flip side. If the conflict de-escalates, perhaps through diplomatic breakthroughs or a mutual stand-down, markets could stabilise, and attention might shift back to economic fundamentals. A contained outcome could even spur long-term shifts, such as accelerated investments in renewable energy or alternative oil sources, thereby reducing dependence on the volatile Middle East.

I see both peril and potential here: the risk of a downturn is real, but so is the chance for resilience and adaptation if cooler heads prevail.

My take: A call for vigilance

In my opinion, we’re at a crossroads where vigilance is paramount. The US strikes on Iran have upped the ante, and while markets haven’t yet priced in a worst-case scenario, the potential for escalation looms large. Investors should keep a close eye on Iran’s response, tonight’s economic data, and the Fed’s July meeting.

For now, the flight to safety, into Treasuries and, to a lesser extent, gold, makes sense, but the muted oil reaction and Bitcoin’s partial recovery suggest a fragile hope that this won’t spiral out of control.

Personally, I’m torn. Part of me fears the domino effect of a broader conflict: higher oil prices, stalled growth, and a Fed with its hands tied. Another part wonders if this could be a catalyst for overdue shifts in global energy and geopolitical strategies.

Either way, the stakes are sky-high, and the coming days will tell us much about where this road leads. For investors and ordinary folks alike, staying informed and agile is the best defence against a world that feels increasingly unpredictable.

 

Source: https://e27.co/from-bitcoin-to-bonds-how-the-iran-conflict-is-reshaping-investment-strategies-20250623/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin battles, gold soars: How tariffs are reshaping wealth

Bitcoin battles, gold soars: How tariffs are reshaping wealth

The global financial markets are navigating a storm of uncertainty, and as an observer with a front-row seat to this unfolding drama, I find myself both fascinated and apprehensive about the forces at play. The past week has been a rollercoaster, with stocks and bonds caught in a relentless selloff driven by escalating trade tensions that have markets on edge.

The White House’s decision to slap a staggering 145 per cent tariff on Chinese imports has sent shockwaves through global economies, and even the brief reprieve offered by President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause hasn’t been enough to restore confidence. Investors are rattled, and for a good reason—the spectre of a US recession looms large, and the ripple effects could reshape the global economic landscape.

As I unpack the market’s reaction, I see a complex interplay of fear, opportunism, and cautious hope, with assets like gold and Bitcoin reflecting the broader search for stability in a world that feels increasingly unmoored.

Let’s begin with the equity markets, where the mood is unmistakably grim. The MSCI US index plummeted 3.5 per cent on Friday, a sharp decline that underscores the market’s growing unease. Defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Utilities managed to hold their ground, with the former eking out a modest 0.2 per cent gain and the latter slipping just 0.6 per cent.

These sectors, often seen as safe harbours during turbulent times, are benefiting from investors’ flight to quality. But the broader picture is one of retreat—Asian equities, led by Japan, were down in early trading, and US equity futures signalled another weak open, with a projected 0.5 per cent drop.

The MSCI gauge of Asian stocks is on track for its third consecutive week of losses, a streak that reflects the region’s vulnerability to trade disruptions. China and Hong Kong, which briefly rallied on hopes of fresh stimulus from Beijing, gave back those gains on Friday as reality set in: tariffs of this magnitude could choke off growth, and no amount of stimulus may fully offset the damage.

The bond market, meanwhile, is telling its own story of unease. The US Treasury yield curve has steepened, a sign that investors are bracing for a mix of inflationary pressures and economic slowdown. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 9.3 basis points to 4.42 per cent, reflecting concerns that tariffs could drive up costs and fuel inflation.

At the same time, the 2-year yield dipped 4.6 basis points to 3.86 per cent, suggesting that markets are pricing in slower growth and potential rate cuts down the line. This steepening curve is a classic signal of uncertainty—investors are torn between the immediate inflationary impact of tariffs and the longer-term risk of a recession.

The bond market’s volatility has been exacerbated by a selloff that some analysts liken to the “dash for cash” seen during the early days of the COVID-19 crisis. Hedge funds, caught off guard by the rapid rise in yields, have been forced to unwind leveraged positions, adding to the market’s fragility.

The US dollar, typically a safe haven in times of crisis, is under pressure, with the dollar index sliding 2.0 per cent. This decline reflects growing concerns about US economic growth, as tariffs threaten to disrupt trade and erode confidence in American assets. Meanwhile, the euro and yen are gaining ground, a sign that investors are seeking non-US alternatives.

The yen, in particular, benefits from its status as a safe-haven currency, while the euro’s strength may reflect Europe’s efforts to present a united front against US trade policies. But let’s not kid ourselves—Europe isn’t immune to the fallout. A 20 per cent US tariff on European goods could hammer exporters, and the STOXX 600’s recent slide suggests that investors are already pricing in pain.

Gold, unsurprisingly, is shining bright amid the chaos. Up 3.0 per cent and pushing toward US$3,250 an ounce, the precious metal is basking in its role as the ultimate safe haven. Investors are piling in, driven by fears of economic instability and the inflationary pressures that tariffs could unleash. Gold’s upward momentum feels relentless, and I can’t help but see it as a barometer of the market’s deepest anxieties.

When even US Treasuries—long considered the bedrock of safety—are being dumped in favour of cash and gold, you know the ground is shifting. Brent crude, on the other hand, is struggling, down 3.3 per cent and hovering just above US$62 per barrel. The combination of tariff-induced demand fears and OPEC+’s decision to ramp up output is keeping oil prices in check, a rare bit of relief for consumers but a headache for energy producers.

Then there’s Bitcoin, which occupies a curious niche in this turbulent landscape. At US$79,474, it’s down 3.5 per cent over the past day and 2.24 per cent over the last month, according to CoinMarketCap. April has been a wild ride for the cryptocurrency, with Trump’s tariff announcements triggering sharp swings.

The initial panic on April 2 sent Bitcoin reeling, as investors fled risk assets. But the pause in tariffs has sparked a tentative recovery, with signs of a corrective bullish wave emerging. The Relative Strength Index is showing early positive divergence, hinting that the selling pressure may be easing. Still, Bitcoin faces a tough road ahead. If it can’t break through the US$84,000 resistance level, it risks stalling out.

But if bullish momentum builds, we could see it test US$96,000. What strikes me about Bitcoin is its dual nature—it’s both a speculative asset and a potential hedge against fiat currency debasement. In a world where tariffs are stoking inflation fears, Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” gains traction, even if its volatility keeps it from being a true safe haven.

As I reflect on these developments, I’m struck by the broader implications of this trade war. Tariffs of this scale—145 per cent on China, 20 per cent on Europe, and a baseline 10 per cent on nearly all US imports—are a gamble with high stakes. The White House argues they’re a tool to protect American industries and level the playing field, but the immediate fallout suggests otherwise. Supply chains are buckling, consumer prices are poised to rise, and corporate earnings are under threat.

The market’s reaction—plunging stocks, surging gold, and a weakening dollar—tells me that investors see more pain ahead than promise. China’s retaliatory tariffs, now at 84 per cent on US goods, signal that this isn’t a one-sided fight. Beijing’s hints at further stimulus may cushion the blow, but they’re unlikely to fully offset the drag of restricted trade.

What worries me most is the potential for a self-fulfilling prophecy. Markets are pricing in a US recession, with some estimates putting the odds as high as 60 per cent. If businesses pull back on investment and consumers tighten their belts, that fear could become reality. The Federal Reserve, already grappling with sticky inflation, faces an impossible choice: cut rates to stimulate growth and risk fuelling inflation, or hold firm and watch the economy sputter.

The bond market’s volatility suggests that investors are losing faith in the Fed’s ability to thread the needle. And while Trump’s tariff pause offers a glimmer of hope, it’s a temporary reprieve at best. Negotiations with over 75 countries are underway, but the threat of renewed levies looms large, especially for China.

On the flip side, there’s an argument to be made that markets are overreacting. The US economy has shown resilience before, and corporate America is adept at adapting to new realities. If tariffs force companies to reshore production, it could spark a manufacturing renaissance, creating jobs and strengthening domestic supply chains.

The pause in tariffs has already triggered massive relief rallies, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest one-day gain since 2008 earlier this week. And let’s not forget that volatility creates opportunities—savvy investors are snapping up beaten-down stocks and positioning for a rebound. Bitcoin, too, could benefit if inflation fears drive demand for alternative assets.

Still, I can’t shake the sense that we’re at a tipping point. The global economy is interconnected, and policies that disrupt trade flows don’t just hurt one nation—they reverberate worldwide. Emerging markets like Vietnam, already reeling from currency devaluations, face a precarious future. Europe’s export-driven economies are bracing for impact, and even Japan, with its safe-haven yen, isn’t immune to the slowdown.

As I look at the data—plunging stock indices, soaring gold, and a bond market in disarray—I see a world grappling with uncertainty. My view is cautiously pessimistic: while markets may find moments of relief, the underlying tensions won’t resolve quickly. Investors should buckle up for a bumpy ride, with safe havens like gold and selective defensives offering the best shelter in this storm.

 

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-battles-gold-soars-how-tariffs-are-reshaping-wealth-20250411/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Unveiling the Power of AI in Crypto: Reshaping the Future of Finance at WEB3BB Tokyo 2024

Unveiling the Power of AI in Crypto: Reshaping the Future of Finance at WEB3BB Tokyo 2024

The intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency is rapidly becoming one of the most exciting frontiers in the tech world. As both technologies continue to evolve at breakneck speeds, their synergy promises to revolutionize how we interact with digital assets and financial systems.

To explore this cutting-edge convergence, Web3BB, one of Japan’s largest business communities dedicated to bridging global and Japanese perspectives on emerging technologies, recently hosted a panel discussion on “The Power of AI in Crypto.” This event brought together industry luminaries, including Anndy Lian, a book author and venture capitalist, and Jenny Zheng, co-founder of Blockcast.cc. Their insights offer a compelling glimpse into how AI is reshaping the cryptocurrency landscape and what we can expect in the near future.

Beyond Trading: AI’s Broader Impact on Crypto

While trading applications are at the forefront, Anndy emphasized that AI’s potential in the crypto space extends far beyond just price predictions. Some key areas of impact include:

1. Security Enhancement: AI can be used to detect security vulnerabilities in blockchain networks and identify irregular activities or potential threats.

2. Productivity and Automation: AI is helping streamline various processes in the crypto industry, from smart contract development to project auditing.

3. User Experience Improvement: AI assistants are being developed to lower the technical barriers for crypto adoption, helping users navigate complex processes like wallet management and transactions.

4. Code Auditing: Project owners can use AI to analyze smart contracts and identify potential bugs or vulnerabilities, enhancing the overall security of their platforms.

5. Due Diligence: Venture capital firms are leveraging AI models to conduct more thorough and efficient due diligence on crypto projects.

Blockchain as a Secure Foundation for AI

An interesting perspective shared during the panel was how blockchain technology could serve as a secure foundation for AI systems. By storing AI models and data sets on blockchain networks, it adds an extra layer of security and transparency to their AI operations.

This integration of blockchain and AI is becoming increasingly seamless. As Anndy noted, “Nowadays there are fewer people talking about blockchain… because it’s really very well integrated into different systems.” He predicts that the combination of AI and blockchain will soon become so commonplace that it will no longer be considered newsworthy.

Ethical Considerations and Risk Mitigation

The panel also touched on the ethical implications of AI in the crypto space. Jennty commented that while AI offers numerous benefits, there are concerns about potential misuse or unintended consequences. The experts suggested that blockchain technology could play a role in governing AI systems, potentially serving as a failsafe mechanism.

For example, smart contracts could be programmed to automatically limit or shut down AI systems if certain conditions are met, providing a decentralized and tamper-resistant way to mitigate risks associated with AI.

Looking Ahead: The Future of AI in Crypto

As the discussion concluded, the panelists emphasized the transformative potential of AI in the crypto industry. They encouraged users to embrace AI tools to enhance their decision-making processes, while also maintaining a balanced perspective on the technology’s capabilities and limitations.

Anndy’s final advice to the audience was clear: “Try to use smarter tools to get by your days… AI has a lot to do to help you with your whole decision-making process. Just try to use it.”

As AI continues to evolve and integrate more deeply with blockchain and cryptocurrency systems, we can expect to see even more innovative applications emerge. From more sophisticated trading algorithms to enhanced security measures and improved user experiences, AI is set to play a crucial role in shaping the future of the crypto industry.

Conclusion

The key for users and industry participants will be to stay informed about these developments, critically evaluate AI tools, and leverage them responsibly to navigate the complex and fast-paced world of cryptocurrencies.

As with any powerful technology, the responsible development and deployment of AI in the crypto space will be crucial. The ethical considerations and risk mitigation strategies discussed by the panelists underscore the need for a balanced approach. As we move forward, it will be essential for industry players, regulators, and users alike to stay informed and engaged in shaping the future of AI in crypto.

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j