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Bitcoin’s US$61,789 breakdown: Why geopolitics just overrode every technical indicator

Bitcoin’s US$61,789 breakdown: Why geopolitics just overrode every technical indicator

Today, Bitcoin trades at US$61,789.80, reflecting a 1.36 per cent decline over the past 24 hours. This drop mirrors a broader 1.17 per cent contraction in the total crypto market capitalisation. Mainstream commentators attribute this movement entirely to a sudden risk reaction.

My independent analysis reveals a more complex convergence of geopolitical shocks and institutional liquidity drains. The immediate catalyst for this sell-off is escalating tensions in the Middle East. President Donald Trump announced a military response after Iran shot down an Apache helicopter. This geopolitical shock instantly triggered a flight from risk assets across global markets.

Bitcoin behaved precisely as a correlated risk asset in this environment, dropping to an intraday low near US$60,892 before buyers stepped in. We see this exact same behaviour in traditional equities. The S&P 500 briefly dipped 2.2 per cent on the news before recovering into the close. Major benchmarks finished mixed, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed only a marginal gain. This tight correlation between cryptocurrency and traditional tech-heavy indices confirms that institutional algorithms currently treat digital assets as an extension of the broader risk complex.

Structural weaknesses in institutional demand continue to suppress price action beyond the geopolitical headline. U.S.-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds extended their outflow streak, underscoring a persistent lack of buy-side conviction. Analysts at Wintermute correctly point out that this environment reflects weak institutional inflows rather than outright panic.

This specific dynamic makes establishing a durable bottom incredibly difficult. Concurrently, the market experienced a severe leverage flush. Traders lost over US$112 million in Bitcoin long positions within a single day. This forced liquidation accelerated the downward momentum and punished overextended speculators.

I have always viewed highly leveraged crypto trading as a form of gambling with slightly better odds than a casino. The liquidations simply represent the house collecting its due. The removal of this excess leverage clears the order book and sets the stage for potentially less volatile price discovery in the coming sessions. We must also contextualise this crypto sell-off within the broader global macroeconomic environment to fully grasp the implications. Technology stocks face their own headwinds. The 3.6 per cent drop in Apple shares following the final World Wide Developer Conference keynote from CEO Tim Cook highlights these pressures. Shares had already fallen close to two per cent on Monday due to poor market reception of the Siri artificial intelligence update.

The market now turns its attention entirely to the macroeconomic data driving central bank policy. The government will release the May United States Consumer Price Index report on June 10. This print serves as the primary directional catalyst for the near term. Consensus expects headline inflation to rise to 4.2 per cent.

This expectation follows an April inflation reading of 3.8 per cent year-on-year. That April figure marked the highest level since 2023. A massive 17.9 per cent jump in energy costs largely drove that previous spike. If the May data prints cooler than expected, we could see a relief rally pushing Bitcoin toward the US$64,000 resistance level. Conversely, a hot inflation reading will reinforce hawkish monetary policy and likely force a retest of the critical US$60,000 support zone.

From a technical perspective, the current market structure demands careful observation from all active market participants. Bitcoin currently trades below key moving averages and maintains a bearish short-term trend. The Relative Strength Index on the 14-day timeframe sits at 23.89. This deeply oversold condition suggests that a technical bounce remains highly probable. A cooler inflation print could fuel a rally targeting the US$64,000 level, which aligns perfectly with the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level. If buyers fail to defend the US$60,000 support, the price will likely cascade toward the next major liquidity zone around US$55,000. Traders must watch the US$64,000-US$66,000 supply zone closely. A decisive reclaim of those levels would provide the first technical confirmation of strengthening momentum.

Global trade and corporate spending metrics provide further context for this market environment. China reported robust May exports, rising 19.4 per cent year on year, and imports jumped 27.4 per cent. This beat expectations and widened the trade surplus to US$103.22 billion. Meanwhile, Bank of America warns clients to take profits because seven of its 10 bear-market signposts have been triggered. They highlight that hyperscaler capital expenditure will soon hit 100 per cent of operating cash flow. This contrasts starkly with the 40 per cent ratio from 2023.

These megacorporations will soon spend every dollar they generate on AI infrastructure. Investor demand in other sectors shows an immense appetite for new tech ventures. SpaceX’s initial public offering demand now reportedly approaches 4 times oversubscribed levels. Commodity markets also reflect this complex web of geopolitical and economic pressures across the globe today. Oil retreated after the US Energy Secretary noted that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is increasing. This observation eased the supply premium created by tensions with Iran.

The confluence of geopolitical stress and institutional selling has driven Bitcoin lower. A sustained reversal requires either diplomatic de-escalation or a positive macroeconomic surprise from the inflation data. I will continue to monitor these structural shifts independently and look past the mainstream narratives. Identifying the true drivers of value in this evolving financial landscape demands rigorous analysis and a forward-looking perspective. The market is at a critical inflexion point, with macroeconomic data set to dictate the next major price move.

Based on what I see and referencing the historical cycle structures, US$44,XXX represents a high-probability macro floor, but it is the deep end, not the baseline, of the expected bottoming range.

Source:
 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Oil crashed 5% but Bitcoin jumped US$4K, altcoins surged 2X harder: What’s driving this?

Oil crashed 5% but Bitcoin jumped US$4K, altcoins surged 2X harder: What’s driving this?

Global financial markets opened with a distinct shift in sentiment as breakthrough optimism surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations triggered a relief rally across risk assets. Because of the Memorial Day holiday, United States equity and bond markets remain closed today, and crypto markets continue trading without pause.

Bitcoin rebounded sharply from lows near US$74,000, trading roughly between US$77,000 and US$78,000 following reports that Washington, Tehran, and regional partners had drafted a short memorandum of understanding. This framework reportedly aims to extend a ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and initiate focused nuclear and sanctions talks. The broader crypto market capitalisation recovered more than US$70 billion in response, illustrating how rapidly digital assets react to geopolitical headlines even when traditional financial centres pause for observance.

The core mechanism driving this move remains fundamentally macroeconomic rather than crypto-native. Progress toward peace reduces the immediate risk of war, which can lower oil prices and ease inflationary pressure on global risk assets. The prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint carrying around one-fifth of global oil, directly influenced commodity markets.

Brent crude dove over five per cent, falling below US$100 a barrel to reach its lowest level in over two weeks. This oil price decline, paired with a softer US dollar as defensive demand waned, created a favourable backdrop for assets like Bitcoin that have increasingly traded in correlation with traditional risk indicators. The relief rally reflects a market pricing in reduced tail risk, though the deal’s underlying fundamentals remain untested.

Altcoins demonstrated their characteristic higher beta to this macro relief, often amplifying the moves seen in Bitcoin. AI and high narrative tokens such as NEAR, Worldcoin, Ondo, and Hyperliquid posted double-digit daily gains in some reports, significantly outpacing Bitcoin during the bounce. Derivatives data added fuel to the move, showing several hundred million dollars of short liquidations during the spike as bearish positions were forced to close.

This technical squeeze magnified the initial headline-driven rally, creating a feedback loop where price action itself became a catalyst. The episode underscores a critical reality for portfolio construction. Crypto now trades as a risk asset tied to geopolitical and energy shocks, meaning macro headlines can move digital asset portfolios as powerfully as protocol upgrades or regulatory news from within the ecosystem.

Significant uncertainty clouds this optimistic price action despite the positive headlines. Iranian outlets have characterised some US statements as incomplete or primarily for domestic political consumption, while key issues like nuclear limits and sanctions relief remain substantively unresolved. Senior US politicians have also publicly criticised the framework, highlighting the domestic political risk surrounding any final agreement.

For crypto traders, this means the current rally rests entirely on an unfinished framework. If talks stall or regional fighting resumes, the market could rapidly rotate back into fear positioning, potentially reversing recent gains with equal speed. Analysts note that Bitcoin remains below its prior 2026 highs, with persistent ETF outflows and elevated yields still creating a challenging background tape for sustained upward momentum.

The broader macroeconomic context adds layers of complexity to this geopolitical relief rally. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently pushed back on easing timelines, stating that inflation is not moving in the right direction. This hawkish commentary sent a reality check through fixed-income markets, keeping 10-year Treasury yields elevated even as risk assets rally.

Compounding this tension, US consumer confidence numbers collapsed to a record low of 44.8, while year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.8 per cent. This divergence highlights structural cost-of-living concerns that persist beneath corporate market highs. Crypto markets must now navigate a conflicting signal environment in which geopolitical de-escalation provides a tailwind, while stubborn inflation and restrictive monetary policy continue to exert a headwind on liquidity-sensitive assets.

Global equity performance offers a mixed picture that further informs the crypto narrative. Wall Street markets are shuttered for Memorial Day, but S&P 500 futures trade higher on global peace optimism, extending the index’s strong eighth consecutive weekly winning streak even as it sits just 0.3 per cent below its mid-May record high. Asia-Pacific markets showed divergence, with tech shares initially drawing strength from the Nasdaq’s prior close while broader regional indexes like the ASX 200 faced downward pressure as investors balanced easing energy sectors against hawkish central bank commentary.

In Singapore, the Ministry of Trade and Industry maintained the city-state’s 2026 GDP growth forecast at two per cent to four per cent, while first-quarter GDP growth was notably revised upward to a strong six per cent year-on-year. Meanwhile, safe-haven gold rallied as macro investors looked past higher short-term bond yields, suggesting not all capital is rotating into risk assets despite geopolitical optimism.

This market action reinforces a critical framework for understanding crypto’s evolving role in global finance. Digital assets now serve as high-resolution sensors for geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts, with altcoins acting as an even more sensitive gauge. The rapid US$70 to US$80 billion recovery in total market value demonstrates the asset class’s liquidity and responsiveness, but also its vulnerability to headline-driven volatility.

Traders and builders alike must recognise that crypto no longer operates in an isolated technological silo. Its price discovery increasingly reflects a complex integration of traditional risk indicators, energy market dynamics, and diplomatic developments. This convergence demands a more sophisticated analytical approach that weighs on-chain metrics against oil price trajectories, derivatives positioning against diplomatic communiqués, and narrative momentum against central bank rhetoric.

The path forward requires disciplined attention to concrete developments rather than headline noise. Key variables to monitor include any concrete signing or failure of the peace framework, specific guidance on sanctions relief and frozen Iranian assets, the directional trend in oil prices following the initial drop, and how rate markets digest subsequent economic data. These factors will determine whether the current move evolves into a sustained trend reversal or remains a short-lived relief bounce.

Until the deal structure, sanctions pathway, and oil market response become clearer, crypto markets will likely remain highly sensitive to new headlines. Altcoins, with their higher beta profiles, will likely continue to amplify both upward and downward moves, creating opportunities and risks for participants. This environment rewards those who maintain strategic flexibility while avoiding overexposure to any single narrative outcome. Memecoins will follow suit, too.

 
Source:
 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Crypto falls 1.29% to US$2.34T as geopolitical fear triggers risk-asset selloff

Crypto falls 1.29% to US$2.34T as geopolitical fear triggers risk-asset selloff

The global financial system faced a harsh reality check as trading commenced on Monday, March 23, 2026. Investors woke up to a landscape defined by fear and uncertainty, with escalating tensions in the Middle East colliding with a stubbornly hawkish monetary policy environment. The result was a broad-based selloff that touched nearly every corner of the market, from traditional equities to digital assets. This was not merely a routine correction but a fundamental reassessment of risk in an increasingly unstable world.

The numbers tell a stark story of investor anxiety. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 443.96 points to close at 45,577.47, a 0.96 per cent decline. The broader S&P 500 fared worse, dropping 100.01 points or 1.51 per cent to settle at 6,506.48. Technology stocks bore the brunt of selling pressure, with the Nasdaq Composite plunging 443.08 points, a 2.01 per cent decline, to 21,647.61. These losses extended a grim streak for US markets, which finished the previous week with their fourth consecutive weekly decline. The momentum clearly favours the bears, and bulls find themselves with little ammunition to fight back.

The catalyst for this market turmoil stems from a dangerous geopolitical flashpoint. US President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies. This ultimatum entered its critical phase as markets opened, with the Iran conflict now in its fourth week. The threat to this vital maritime passage sent shockwaves through energy markets, pushing Brent crude toward US$111 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate hovered near US$98 per barrel. Such elevated oil prices feed directly into inflation concerns, complicating the already difficult task facing central bankers.

The contagion spread far beyond American shores. Asian markets tumbled in sympathy with Wall Street’s woes. Japan’s Nikkei index plummeted three per cent, while South Korea’s Kospi dropped over four per cent. This synchronised global selloff demonstrates how interconnected modern financial markets have become. When fear strikes in one region, it ripples across time zones with devastating speed. The universal nature of this decline suggests investors are not discriminating between regions or sectors but rather fleeing risk assets wholesale.

Technology stocks faced particular pressure following a brutal rout that saw the Nasdaq 100 hit a 23-month low on March 20. The sector’s vulnerability reflects its sensitivity to interest rate expectations and risk appetite. With traders significantly scaling back expectations for interest rate cuts, the environment has turned hostile for growth stocks that depend on cheap capital. Some markets now do not price in US monetary easing before mid-2027, a stark revision from earlier expectations. This hawkish repricing forces investors to confront the reality that the era of easy money may remain dormant far longer than anticipated.

The cryptocurrency market offered no refuge from the storm. The total crypto market capitalisation fell 1.29 per cent to US$2.34T over a 24-hour period, demonstrating that digital assets remain firmly in the risk-sensitive category despite narratives about their independence from traditional finance. The Ethereum ecosystem suffered particularly severe damage, plunging 14.91 per cent amid accelerating profit-taking and sector rotation. Large holders with wallets containing over 100K ETH found themselves back in profit, a condition that historically precedes rallies but can trigger short-term selling pressure.

What makes this moment particularly noteworthy is the correlation between crypto and traditional safe havens. Over the past 7 days, cryptocurrency has shown a 95 per cent correlation with gold, suggesting both assets are responding to the same uncertainty-hedge dynamics. This is ironic given that gold itself suffered its worst weekly performance since 2011 in the prior week. Even traditional havens are not immune to the volatility gripping markets. The technical picture for crypto looks precarious, with the market testing the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$2.29T. A break below this level could extend losses toward the yearly low of US$2.17T, while recovery above US$2.38T would suggest the selloff is abating.

The commodity complex reflects the tension between growth concerns and supply fears. While oil prices surge on geopolitical risk, the broader commodity picture remains mixed. Gold’s struggle to maintain its safe-haven premium despite war jitters suggests investors are prioritising liquidity and dollar strength over traditional inflation hedges. This dynamic creates a challenging environment for portfolio construction, as the usual diversification benefits appear to be breaking down under stress.

The path forward depends heavily on developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the Federal Reserve’s response to elevated oil prices. If oil holds above US$95 per barrel, inflation fears will continue to pressure risk assets. The market needs clarity on both the geopolitical front and the monetary policy outlook before it can find a stable footing. Flash PMI data and any escalation in the Middle East will dictate the next macro move. US Bitcoin ETF flow data on March 24 will provide insight into institutional sentiment, with sustained outflows confirming the cautious stance prevailing among professional investors.

This moment represents more than a routine market pullback. It reflects a fundamental tension between geopolitical instability and monetary policy constraints that will likely persist for weeks if not months. Investors must navigate a landscape where traditional relationships break down, correlations spike, and both risk assets and safe havens can decline simultaneously. The coming days will test whether this represents a buying opportunity or the beginning of a more severe adjustment. For now, caution remains the only rational response to a market caught between war and tight money.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-falls-1-29-to-us2-34t-as-geopolitical-fear-triggers-risk-asset-selloff-20260323/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j