Tag Archives: shape

Fed’s 2025 rate cuts: How they shape stocks, gold and crypto

Fed’s 2025 rate cuts: How they shape stocks, gold and crypto

Over the weekend, fresh headlines hinted that President Donald Trump’s much-discussed reciprocal tariffs, slated for April 2, might not be the broad, blunt instrument markets initially feared. Instead, they could be more targeted, potentially easing some of the anxiety that’s kept investors on edge. But let’s not kid ourselves—the situation remains fluid, and a major risk still looms large. Markets hate uncertainty, and this story is far from written.

Last week offered a glimpse into how these dynamics are playing out. The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest dot plot stuck to its script, signalling expectations of two rate cuts this year despite a bump in near-term inflation projections from 2.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent.

That’s a notable shift—it suggests the Fed sees price pressures sticking around a bit longer than anticipated. Meanwhile, the median growth forecast took a hit, sliding from 2.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent, a clear nod to the mounting headwinds facing the US economy.

Friday’s market action encapsulated the mood: equities spent most of the day in the red, only to be yanked into positive territory by a late rally from mega-cap tech giants, nudging the S&P 500 up 0.1 per cent by the close. It’s a classic case of the market’s bipolar nature—pessimism giving way to a flicker of optimism driven by a handful of heavyweights.

The bond market, meanwhile, told its own story. The US Treasury yield curve steepened, with long-end yields creeping higher after Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested the banking system still has plenty of reserves to handle the Fed’s ongoing Treasury runoff without disruption. The 10-year yield edged up 0.9 basis points to 4.246 per cent, reflecting confidence in the longer-term outlook.

At the front end, however, yields dipped—the 2-year yield fell 1.6 basis points to 3.948 per cent—as markets priced in more Fed easing to come. It’s a delicate balancing act: the Fed resisting short-term pressure to pivot aggressively while signalling it’s not blind to the softening growth picture.

The US Dollar Index, up 0.2 per cent to 104.09, notched its first weekly gain in three weeks, a subtle flex of muscle amid the uncertainty. Commodities offered a mixed bag: gold, often a safe-haven darling, shed 0.7 per cent as profit-taking kicked in, while Brent crude eked out a 0.2 per cent gain, buoyed perhaps by geopolitical jitters or steady demand signals.

Over in Asia, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index dropped 0.9 per cent on Friday—its third straight day of losses—dragged down by tariff fears, though it still managed a 1.22 per cent weekly gain. Chinese tech stocks weren’t so lucky; profit-taking hammered the Hang Seng and CSI 300, which slumped 2.19 per cent and 1.52 per cent, respectively, as investors cashed out amid the overhang of potential trade disruptions.

Looking ahead, this week’s economic calendar is packed with potential market movers. Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—will be the headliner, offering fresh clues on whether those upwardly revised inflation projections hold water.

Earlier in the week, the UK’s February CPI on Tuesday and Tokyo’s March CPI on Friday will shed light on global price trends. Stateside, the Congressional Budget Office’s debt ceiling estimate on Wednesday could stir the pot, especially with the Treasury’s cash pile under scrutiny.

And let’s not forget the steady drumbeat of Fedspeak—comments from Fed officials could either soothe or spook markets, depending on their tone.

Asia’s in the spotlight too. The China Development Forum, which kicked off in Beijing on Sunday and wraps up today, Monday, March 24, has drawn global business leaders eager to gauge China’s next moves. Some are slated to meet President Xi Jinping later this week, a rare chance to take the pulse of China’s leadership amid trade tensions. Early trading in Asian equities today has been a mixed bag, reflecting the push and pull of optimism over narrower tariffs and lingering unease about what’s next.

Then there’s the crypto angle, which has been lighting up financial headlines. Bitcoin, XRP, and Solana (SOL) kicked off Monday with gains, riding a wave of positivity tied to those reports of more targeted Trump tariffs. Bitcoin’s hovering around US$86,500, up 2.7 per cent in the last 24 hours, while SOL’s outpacing the pack with a near six per cent jump to US$138. The S&P 500 futures are cheering, too, pointing to a higher open for US stocks.

It’s tempting to see this as a sign that Bitcoin may have found a floor, with some analysts eyeing a rebound toward US$90,000 if tariff fears continue to ease and the Fed holds steady. Trump’s signalling of a lighter touch on trade and the Fed’s resistance to knee-jerk rate cuts last week seems to have injected a dose of cautious optimism into the crypto space.

Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy is another piece of this puzzle. The company’s CEO has been dropping hints via his “Saylor Bitcoin Tracker” posts on X, a reliable signal that more Bitcoin buys are coming. Sure enough, the word is that MicroStrategy might announce a massive purchase—potentially 500,000 BTC, worth billions—tomorrow morning.

Saylor’s strategy of scooping up Bitcoin during dips has turned MicroStrategy into a crypto behemoth, with its holdings currently valued at US$8.73 billion, down from a peak of US$19.50 billion. It’s a bold bet on Bitcoin’s long-term value, and if this rumoured US$21 billion acquisition pans out, it could light a fire under the market just as sentiment starts to thaw.

Fidelity Investments is making waves too, stepping into blockchain tokenisation with a filing to register a tokenised version of its US dollar money market fund on the Ethereum network. Submitted last Thursday to the SEC, the plan involves a new “OnChain” share class for its US$80 million Fidelity Treasury Digital Fund, mostly made up of US Treasury bills.

It’s a move that echoes efforts by BlackRock and Franklin Templeton, signalling that traditional finance is increasingly cozying up to blockchain’s promise of transparency and efficiency. If approved, it could mark a turning point for how institutional money flows into digital assets.

Ethereum itself is a bit of a paradox right now. The price has been sliding—down over 51 per cent from its December peak of US$4,100 to around US$2,000—yet so-called “Ethereum whales” are quietly stacking their bags. Glassnode data shows wallets holding at least US$100,000 worth of ETH jumped from 70,000 on March 10 to over 75,000 by March 22, a stark contrast to the 146,000 seen when ETH was flying high in December. Analysts are eyeing a potential breakout to US$2,200 if buying pressure builds, but for now, ETH’s stuck in a rut, caught between whale accumulation and broader market malaise.

The prospect of more targeted tariffs is a lifeline for markets desperate for clarity, but the risks haven’t vanished—they’ve just shifted shape. The Fed’s juggling act—balancing inflation worries with growth concerns—keeps everyone guessing, and this week’s data could tip the scales either way.

Crypto’s riding a wave of cautious hope, bolstered by big players like Saylor and Fidelity, but it’s tethered to the same macro uncertainties as equities and bonds. Asia’s fate hinges on how China navigates this tariff tightrope, and the US debt ceiling looms as a wildcard. It’s a high-stakes game, and while the pieces are moving, the board’s still a mess.

 

Source: https://e27.co/feds-2025-rate-cuts-how-they-shape-stocks-gold-and-crypto-20250324/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Markets on edge as jobs data, currency shifts, and crypto milestones shape the week

Markets on edge as jobs data, currency shifts, and crypto milestones shape the week

7 February 2025 marks a pivotal moment for global markets as investors grapple with a confluence of critical economic indicators, shifting currency dynamics, and transformative developments in the cryptocurrency space. Wall Street traders are on edge, awaiting the release of US non-farm payroll data that could illuminate the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates, while the Japanese yen surges to its highest level since early December, buoyed by hawkish comments from a Bank of Japan official.

Meanwhile, Amazon’s disappointing profit projections send ripples through after-hours trading, and the cryptocurrency market sees increased institutional engagement alongside significant regulatory milestones. As a journalist deeply attuned to the pulse of global finance, I believe this week underscores the intricate balance between risk and opportunity, with profound implications for investors, policymakers, and the broader economy.

Let’s begin with the US jobs data, which has become the focal point for Wall Street traders. The non-farm payroll report is more than just a snapshot of employment trends; it is a critical barometer for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. A weak print could reignite expectations for further interest rate cuts, providing a much-needed boost to risk assets and potentially alleviating some of the pressure on equity markets.

Conversely, a stronger-than-expected report might temper hopes for additional easing, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on inflation. The stakes are high, particularly as Wall Street also anticipates a revision to previous job growth figures—a development that could further complicate the Fed’s decision-making process.

The interplay between these data points highlights the fragility of the current economic recovery, with markets hanging on every decimal point. From my perspective, the Fed faces an unenviable task: balancing the need to support growth while guarding against inflationary pressures. A misstep here could have profound consequences, not just for the US economy but for global financial stability.

The new norm: Stabilising global risk sentiment in a volatile market

Beyond the jobs data, the broader US market landscape offers mixed signals. The MSCI US index edged higher by 0.4 per cent, with the Consumer Staples sector outperforming at 0.9 per cent. This resilience in defensive sectors suggests that investors are hedging their bets, seeking safety amid uncertainty.

At the same time, US Treasury yields ticked upward, with the 10-year yield rising by 1.6 basis points to 4.43 per cent and the 2-year yield climbing by 2.5 basis points to 4.21 per cent. These modest increases reflect a market grappling with the potential for higher interest rates, even as the US Dollar Index consolidated its recent losses with a slight 0.1 per cent uptick.

Gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset, saw its upward momentum persist, albeit with a slight 0.4 per cent pullback, as it continued its march toward the US$2,900 per ounce mark. These movements paint a picture of a market in flux, with investors seeking refuge in traditional safe havens while cautiously navigating the shifting sands of monetary policy.

On the global stage, the Japanese yen’s appreciation to its highest level since early December is a development worth noting. The currency’s gains were spurred by comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Naoki Tamura, who made a compelling case for higher interest rates. This hawkish stance contrasts sharply with the BOJ’s historically dovish policies, signaling a potential shift in Japan’s monetary strategy. The yen’s strength is a double-edged sword: while it bolsters the purchasing power of Japanese consumers and importers, it poses challenges for exporters and could dampen economic growth.

From my vantage point, Tamura’s comments are a bold move, reflecting the BOJ’s growing confidence in Japan’s economic recovery. However, the central bank must tread carefully, as premature rate hikes could undermine the fragile progress made in combating deflation. The yen’s appreciation also has broader implications for global currency markets, potentially influencing the relative strength of the US dollar and other major currencies.

Shifting gears to the commodity markets, Brent crude oil hovered just below US$75 per barrel, weighed down by concerns over President Trump’s proposed tariffs on China. These tariffs, if implemented, could reduce global crude demand, particularly from one of the world’s largest oil consumers. At the same time, Trump’s pledge to boost US oil output adds another layer of complexity, potentially offsetting the impact of sanctions on Iran. This delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics underscores the geopolitical risks embedded in the oil market.

As a journalist, I find it striking how political decisions in one corner of the world can ripple through global commodity markets, affecting everything from energy prices to inflation expectations. The mixed performance of Asian equities and the flat outlook for US equity index futures further highlight the uncertainty permeating global markets, as investors grapple with these intersecting forces.

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, this week brought several notable developments that reflect the sector’s growing maturity. JP Morgan’s latest eTrading survey revealed a significant uptick in institutional engagement with cryptocurrencies, with 13 per cent of the 4,200 surveyed institutional traders actively trading digital assets, up from nine per cent in 2024.

This increase aligns with the launch of US Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and the remarkable 120 per cent surge in Bitcoin prices over the course of the year. The contrast with 2023, a period marked by the fallout from the FTX collapse, is stark. The recovery and subsequent growth in 2024 underscore the resilience of the crypto market and its ability to attract institutional capital.

However, it’s worth noting that 71 per cent of surveyed traders still have no plans to trade cryptocurrencies, down from 78 per cent the previous year. This cautious stance suggests that while the crypto market is gaining traction, significant barriers to adoption remain, including regulatory uncertainty and concerns about volatility.

What startup should I start based on market trends in 2025?

The survey also highlighted the relative importance of various technologies, with artificial intelligence extending its dominance, followed by APIs. Blockchain, while still a distant third at six per cent (down from seven per cent last year), remains a critical technology for the crypto ecosystem. The decline in blockchain’s perceived importance is intriguing, particularly in light of the SEC’s recent launch of a Crypto Task Force website aimed at clarifying regulations for digital assets.

This initiative, which focuses on token classification and compliance, is a step in the right direction, providing much-needed guidance for market participants. Similarly, Franklin Templeton’s bid to launch a new crypto index ETF signals growing institutional interest in diversified crypto exposure. These developments are emblematic of the broader trend toward mainstream acceptance of digital assets, even as challenges persist.

In my view, the cryptocurrency market is at a pivotal moment. The increased institutional engagement and regulatory clarity are positive signs, but the sector must continue to address concerns about transparency, security, and systemic risk. The lessons of the FTX collapse and other high-profile failures must not be forgotten.

As the crypto ecosystem evolves, it will be crucial for regulators and industry players to work collaboratively to build a framework that fosters innovation while protecting investors. The golden age of crypto, as some have dubbed it, is within reach, but it will require careful navigation of the complex interplay between technology, regulation, and market dynamics.

To conclude, this week’s developments paint a picture of a global financial landscape marked by uncertainty and opportunity. From the anticipation surrounding US jobs data to the yen’s resurgence and the evolving dynamics in the cryptocurrency space, the forces shaping markets are multifaceted and interconnected.

As a journalist, I remain cautiously optimistic about the future, but I am mindful of the risks that lie ahead. The path forward will require vigilance, adaptability, and a commitment to balancing innovation with stability. The global economy stands at a critical juncture, and the decisions made in the coming months will reverberate for years to come.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-on-edge-as-jobs-data-currency-shifts-and-crypto-milestones-shape-the-week-20250207/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

US Elections 2024 and Crypto: How Will Trump or Harris Shape Regulations?

US Elections 2024 and Crypto: How Will Trump or Harris Shape Regulations?
  • Donald Trump wants to become the first “Bitcoin President,” while Kamala Harris promised crypto innovation.
  • A Trump victory could lead to a continuation of the deregulatory approach, but a Harris administration would likely prioritise consumer protection and financial stability.

As the United States gears up for another significant presidential election, the intersection of politics and cryptocurrency has emerged as a critical area of focus. The candidates, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, offer contrasting visions for the future of digital currencies and blockchain technology. This divergence is not only shaping the political landscape but also influencing financial markets, particularly the rapidly growing cryptocurrency sector.

The Crypto Landscape Amidst Political Uncertainty

Cryptocurrency, once a niche interest, has evolved into a major financial force. Its decentralized nature and potential for high returns have attracted a wide range of investors, from tech-savvy millennials to institutional giants. However, the regulatory environment remains uncertain, with policymakers grappling with how to integrate these digital assets into the existing financial system.

In this context, the upcoming U.S. presidential election could be a turning point. The candidates’ differing approaches to cryptocurrency regulation and adoption could have profound implications for the industry. As such, the election is not just a political contest but a referendum on the future of digital finance.

Wall Street’s Bet on Trump

Wall Street’s apparent preference for a Trump victory is rooted in his administration’s historical approach to regulation and taxation. Trump’s presidency was marked by a deregulatory agenda, which many investors believe could benefit the cryptocurrency industry. Lower taxes and fewer regulations could create a more favorable environment for crypto businesses, potentially spurring innovation and growth.

This sentiment is reflected in the behavior of prediction markets, where Trump’s odds of winning have surged. Platforms like Polymarket and PredictIt have seen significant bets placed on a Trump victory, with some investors wagering millions of dollars. These markets, which allow users to bet on the outcome of events using cryptocurrency, have become a barometer of investor sentiment.

The enthusiasm for Trump among crypto investors is not surprising. During his previous term, Trump expressed skepticism about cryptocurrencies but refrained from implementing harsh regulations. His administration’s focus on economic growth and deregulation aligns with the interests of many in the crypto community, who view excessive regulation as a barrier to innovation.

Harris and the Promise of Innovation

In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris represents a more cautious approach to cryptocurrency. While she has not been as vocal about her stance on digital currencies, her campaign has emphasized the importance of innovation and technology. Harris has promised to encourage the development of emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence and digital assets while ensuring consumer protection and financial stability.

Harris’s approach reflects a broader Democratic strategy of balancing innovation with regulation. Her administration would likely prioritize consumer protection and financial stability, potentially leading to stricter regulations on cryptocurrencies. This could include measures to prevent fraud, protect investors, and ensure the stability of the financial system.

Despite these potential challenges, Harris’s focus on innovation could also benefit the crypto industry. By fostering a supportive environment for technological development, her administration could encourage the growth of blockchain technology and digital assets. This could lead to new opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors, even if it means navigating a more complex regulatory landscape.

The Role of Prediction Markets

The divergence between traditional polls and prediction markets highlights the unique dynamics of this election. While many polls show a close race between Trump and Harris, prediction markets have consistently favored Trump. This discrepancy can be attributed to several factors, including the influence of large investors, or “whales,” who have placed substantial bets on a Trump victory.

These markets, which operate on blockchain technology, offer a decentralized platform for betting on the outcome of events. They have gained popularity in recent years, particularly among crypto enthusiasts who appreciate their transparency and accessibility. However, their predictions should be interpreted with caution, as they reflect the views of a specific subset of investors rather than the broader electorate.

The influence of prediction markets on media coverage is also noteworthy. As these platforms have gained prominence, their odds have been cited as evidence of Trump’s growing lead. This has contributed to a narrative that may not fully align with traditional polling data, underscoring the complex relationship between media, markets, and public perception.

The Future of Cryptocurrency Regulation

The outcome of the election will have significant implications for the future of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States. A Trump victory could lead to a continuation of the deregulatory approach that characterized his previous administration. This could create a more favorable environment for crypto businesses, potentially attracting investment and fostering innovation.

On the other hand, a Harris administration would likely prioritize consumer protection and financial stability, potentially leading to stricter regulations. While this could pose challenges for the industry, it could also provide a more stable and secure environment for investors, ultimately benefiting the market’s long-term growth.

Regardless of the outcome, the election will serve as a critical juncture for the cryptocurrency industry. As digital currencies continue to gain traction, policymakers will need to strike a balance between fostering innovation and ensuring the stability and security of the financial system. This will require collaboration between regulators, industry leaders, and other stakeholders to develop a regulatory framework that supports the growth of digital finance while protecting consumers and maintaining financial stability.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Crypto

The U.S. presidential election is a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency industry. The candidates’ differing approaches to regulation and innovation will shape the future of digital finance, influencing everything from market dynamics to investor sentiment. As such, the election is not just a political contest but a referendum on the future of cryptocurrency.

For investors and industry leaders, the stakes are high. A Trump victory could lead to a continuation of the deregulatory approach that has benefited the industry, while a Harris administration could introduce new challenges and opportunities. Regardless of the outcome, the election will serve as a critical juncture for the cryptocurrency industry, shaping its trajectory for years to come.

As the election approaches, the crypto community will be watching closely, eager to see how the outcome will impact the future of digital finance. Whether through deregulation or innovation, the next administration will play a crucial role in shaping the future of cryptocurrency, influencing everything from market dynamics to investor sentiment. In this context, the election is not just a political contest but a referendum on the future of digital finance.

 

Source: https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/us-elections-2024-how-will-trump-or-harris-administration-shape-crypto-regulations/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j