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Powell’s speech could trigger a market meltdown or a crypto boom

Powell’s speech could trigger a market meltdown or a crypto boom

As the world turns its eyes toward a pivotal week in global economics, the stage is set for a series of data releases that could reshape market expectations and investor sentiment. On Thursday, August 21, 2025, flash Purchasing Managers’ Index surveys from S&P Global will roll out, providing the earliest glimpses into August’s business activity across major developed economies like the United States, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan.

These indicators arrive at a critical juncture, following the recent implementation of higher US tariffs on August 7, which have already begun to ripple through supply chains and pricing dynamics. Investors will dissect these PMI figures for signs of resilience or strain, particularly in the manufacturing and services sectors.

Complementing this, inflation reports from various nations will add layers of complexity: Canada’s consumer price index lands on Tuesday, August 19, the UK’s on Wednesday, August 20, the Eurozone’s harmonised index on Friday, August 22, and Japan’s national CPI also on Friday.

The Federal Reserve’s minutes from its July meeting, due Wednesday, August 20, will offer clues about policymakers’ thinking on interest rates, while the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running from August 21 to 23, promises speeches from central bankers, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address on Friday. This confluence of events comes amid a backdrop of trade tensions and shifting monetary policies, making it a high-stakes period for gauging the health of the global economy.

In the United States, the flash PMI data holds particular weight as the first major release since the tariffs took effect. President Trump’s administration pushed through these measures, elevating import duties on a broad swath of goods from key trading partners, marking the highest tariff levels since the Great Depression. Economists at the Yale Budget Lab estimate that these changes could shave 0.5 percentage points off US real GDP growth for both 2025 and 2026, while also fuelling inflationary pressures through higher input costs.

The tariffs aim to protect domestic industries and rectify trade imbalances, but early indicators suggest they disrupt supply chains and elevate prices for consumers and businesses alike. July’s consumer price index came in softer than anticipated, offering some relief, but any uptick in the PMI’s output prices sub-index could signal renewed inflation risks, potentially derailing hopes for aggressive rate cuts. Manufacturing inventories also draw scrutiny, as July data hinted at a reversal in building activity, possibly exacerbated by tariff-induced caution among firms.

The US has outperformed peers in recent quarters, bolstering global growth, but these trade developments test that momentum. If the PMI shows contraction in manufacturing, say, dipping below the 50 threshold, it might amplify calls for the Fed to ease policy more swiftly, especially if services hold steady.

Beyond the US, flash PMI readings from other developed economies will illuminate how these tariffs reverberate internationally. The Eurozone, already grappling with sluggish growth, could see its manufacturing sector further pressured by reduced US demand for exports, given America’s role as a major trading partner.

The United Kingdom, post-Brexit, faces similar vulnerabilities, with its PMI likely reflecting ongoing adjustments to global trade shifts. Japan’s data might reveal resilience in its export-oriented economy, though higher costs from tariffs on components could weigh on margins.

Even India, as a fast-growing emerging market, releases business sentiment updates this week, and analysts watch closely for any slowdown amid threats of reciprocal tariffs or diverted trade flows. These international snapshots matter because they feed into a broader narrative of interconnected growth. If PMIs across the board indicate softening, it strengthens the case for coordinated monetary easing among central banks, but divergent outcomes—such as US strength versus European weakness—could widen currency fluctuations and complicate investment strategies.

Inflation figures this week add another dimension to the puzzle, with the potential to sway central bank decisions. In the UK, Wednesday’s CPI report is forecasted to show a headline increase, building on recent PMI price signals that pointed to rising pressures. July’s data already introduced uncertainty around the Bank of England’s rate path, and a hotter-than-expected print could temper expectations for further cuts after its recent pivot.

The Eurozone’s harmonised CPI on Friday might underscore persistent services inflation, challenging the European Central Bank’s efforts to normalise policy. Japan’s core CPI, excluding fresh food, could edge higher due to wage growth and energy costs, testing the Bank of Japan’s gradual tightening stance.

Canada’s data on Tuesday precedes its own central bank’s moves, where softer inflation has opened the door to easing. Collectively, these releases test the narrative of disinflation that has dominated 2025 so far. If numbers surprise to the upside, markets might price in fewer rate reductions, pressuring equities and bonds, while downside surprises could fuel risk-on rallies.

The Federal Reserve’s July minutes, released midweek, will be parsed for any hints of discord among officials on the pace of cuts. July’s meeting maintained rates, but dovish undertones emerged in subsequent communications, with markets now betting on at least a 25-basis-point reduction in September. The minutes could reveal debates over labor market softening or inflation’s trajectory, especially in light of the tariffs’ potential to stoke prices.

Then comes Jackson Hole, the Fed’s marquee event in Wyoming, where Powell’s speech often sets the tone for autumn policy. Past symposiums have unveiled major shifts, like 2022’s hawkish pivot, and this year’s theme of reevaluating economic resilience amid trade wars adds intrigue.

Other central bankers, including those from the ECB and BOE, may chime in, offering cross-Atlantic perspectives. In my view, these gatherings underscore a delicate balancing act: policymakers must navigate tariff-induced uncertainties without overreacting, as premature tightening could tip economies into recession, while excessive easing risks rekindling inflation.

Shifting gears to the cryptocurrency markets, which often amplify broader economic signals, Bitcoin’s recent price action captures the volatility inherent in risk assets during uncertain times. The leading cryptocurrency rocketed to a fresh all-time high above US$124,100 earlier this month, only to retreat under bearish pressure, stabilising around US$118,000 over the weekend. On-chain analytics from Glassnode highlight critical support levels at US$117,500 and US$114,500, based on the cost basis distribution metric, which maps where investors acquired their holdings.

This heatmap reveals clusters of 72,900 BTC bought near US$117,500 and 56,201 BTC around US$114,500, suggesting these zones could act as cushions. Investors at these levels, many still in profit, might defend their positions by accumulating more, creating buying pressure that prevents deeper declines. However, a breach below US$114,500 opens the door to sharper corrections, as Glassnode data shows sparse support beneath, potentially targeting the US$110,000 to US$112,000 range where short-term holder cost bases cluster.

Recent posts on X from Glassnode emphasise this “air gap” of low liquidity between US$110,000 and US$116,000, filled gradually during dips but requiring stronger demand to solidify. In my perspective, Bitcoin’s resilience stems from its maturation as an asset class, with institutional adoption providing a floor even as macroeconomic headwinds like tariffs loom.

Ethereum, meanwhile, demonstrates bullish undercurrents through institutional flows and ecosystem growth. Over 200,000 ETH, valued at roughly US$888 million, exited centralised exchanges like Binance and Coinbase in a single day recently, the largest outflow since July 2025, signalling long-term holding or over-the-counter deals that reduce sell pressure.

This mirrors patterns preceding Ethereum’s 2024 rally from US$2,600 to US$4,000. Spot Ethereum ETFs have seen assets under management swell 57 per cent in the past 30 days to US$22.58 billion, with inflows like BlackRock’s US$338 million addition on August 15 underscoring demand despite occasional net outflows.

Stablecoin holdings on Ethereum hit an all-time high of US$130 billion, with USDC’s monthly transfer volume reaching US$8.6 billion, positioning the network as a hub for liquidity ready to rotate into altcoins as Bitcoin dominance slips 1.78 per cent weekly. These metrics suggest Ethereum benefits from capital shifts, especially if economic data this week bolsters rate-cut bets, lowering yields on traditional assets and driving flows into crypto.

Tying it all together, the interplay between these economic releases and crypto markets hinges on interest rate expectations. Tariffs introduce inflationary risks that could force central banks to pause easing, pressuring high-beta assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

If PMIs and inflation data reveal softening growth without runaway prices, the Fed and peers might accelerate cuts, injecting liquidity that historically lifts cryptos. In my opinion, the US economy’s outperformance provides a buffer, but global fragilities, amplified by trade barriers, warrant caution.

For crypto, the institutional accumulation in Ethereum and Bitcoin’s on-chain supports paint a constructive picture, potentially setting up for new highs if Jackson Hole delivers dovish signals. Investors should monitor price reactions closely, as these events could either cement a soft landing or ignite volatility.

Ultimately, while short-term turbulence persists, the long-term trajectory for both traditional and digital assets leans toward adaptation and growth, provided policymakers strike the right balance. This week’s data will be instrumental in charting that course, reminding us that in an interconnected world, no market operates in isolation.

 

Source: https://e27.co/powells-speech-could-trigger-a-market-meltdown-or-a-crypto-boom-20250818/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

How CPI, retail sales, and Powell’s speech could shape Fed policy and market sentiment

How CPI, retail sales, and Powell’s speech could shape Fed policy and market sentiment

As we head into a pivotal week for the US economy and financial markets, a confluence of significant events is poised to shape expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and influence market sentiment in profound ways.

The upcoming release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales data, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday, and ongoing US trade negotiations with China and the UK are all critical pieces of this puzzle.

I’ll analyse how these developments might unfold, their potential economic implications, and how they could sway both the Fed’s monetary policy decisions and the broader market mood. This analysis will weave together the latest economic indicators, policy signals, and geopolitical dynamics to provide a comprehensive view of what’s at stake.

The economic barometers: CPI and retail sales data

The CPI and retail sales figures due this week are among the most important economic releases, serving as key barometers of inflation and consumer spending, two pillars of the Fed’s dual mandate to maintain price stability and maximise employment. These data points will set the tone for how markets and policymakers interpret the health of the US economy.

The Consumer Price Index measures changes in the prices consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, making it a primary indicator of inflation. If this week’s CPI report reveals a higher-than-expected uptick in prices, it would suggest that inflationary pressures remain stubbornly persistent.

This could unnerve the Fed, which has been wary of easing monetary policy prematurely only to see inflation reaccelerate. A hot CPI print might push back expectations for rate cuts, as the central bank would likely prioritise keeping inflation in check over stimulating growth.

Conversely, a softer-than-anticipated CPI reading—indicating that price pressures are easing—could bolster the case for monetary easing, particularly if paired with signs of economic slowdown elsewhere. Investors are already on edge, with bond markets pricing in rate cuts as early as July, per the latest weekly recap, and the 10-year Treasury yield lingering near 4.38 per cent, reflecting uncertainty about the Fed’s next move.

Recent economic reports cited in the recap underscore that inflation has been trending upward in the US, adding complexity to the outlook. This trend aligns with concerns raised by Fed Chair Jerome Powell about the inflationary impact of President Trump’s tariff policies, which I’ll explore further in the trade section. For now, it’s clear that a high CPI number could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, while a lower one might give policymakers room to consider rate cuts sooner.

Retail sales: A window into consumer health

Retail sales data, which tracks consumer spending across various sectors, offers a direct glimpse into the strength of the US consumer—a driving force of economic growth. Robust retail sales would signal that households are still spending freely despite higher prices and borrowing costs, suggesting resilience in the economy.

Such strength could lessen the urgency for rate cuts, as the Fed might see no immediate need to juice up an already healthy consumer base. On the flip side, a disappointing retail sales report—showing consumers tightening their belts—would raise red flags about economic momentum, potentially tilting the Fed toward easing to support growth.

The weekly recap hints at consumer fragility, noting that Americans are beginning to feel the pinch of tariffs as ships carrying tariffed goods arrive. This could dampen spending, especially if paired with rising inflation. Powell has also flagged declining consumer sentiment tied to trade policy uncertainty, which could foreshadow weaker retail sales.

The interplay between these data points will be crucial: strong sales with high inflation might keep the Fed on hold, while weak sales with moderating inflation could pave the way for cuts.

Powell’s speech: Decoding the Fed’s intentions

Following the CPI and retail sales releases, Jerome Powell’s Thursday speech will be a linchpin event, offering markets a chance to parse the Fed’s thinking on monetary policy.

With the Fed holding rates steady for three consecutive meetings and highlighting “elevated risks” to both inflation and unemployment, Powell’s words will carry outsized weight.

Dovish or Hawkish signals?

Powell’s tone will be everything. A dovish slant—where he expresses concern about economic slowdown or signals that inflation is under control—could ignite expectations for rate cuts, lifting equities and easing bond yields. Markets would interpret this as a green light for monetary support, especially if the week’s data leans soft.

However, a hawkish stance—emphasising persistent inflation or the need for sustained tightness—might temper those hopes, suggesting that rates will stay higher for longer. This could pressure stocks, already struggling near technical resistance levels (S&P 500 down 0.5 per cent, Nasdaq off 0.3 per cent, Dow down 0.2 per cent last week), and push yields upward.

Powell’s recent rhetoric offers clues. He’s underscored the Fed’s cautious, data-dependent approach, wary of acting too soon amid trade-driven uncertainties. The recap notes his focus on tariff-related risks, which could simultaneously hike inflation and slow growth—a stagflationary bind that complicates rate decisions.

How is the UK-US trade deal shaping cryptocurrency and stock market trends?

If Powell doubles down on this narrative Thursday, he might signal that the Fed is in a holding pattern, waiting for clearer evidence before pivoting. This wait-and-see posture could leave markets in limbo, amplifying volatility as traders grapple with mixed signals.

Trade talks: Tariffs, supply chains, and economic ripple effects

The US trade negotiations with China and a limited deal with the UK inject another layer of uncertainty into this week’s outlook. These talks could either mitigate or exacerbate pressures on inflation, growth, and market sentiment, depending on their outcomes.

US-China trade dynamics

The US-China trade saga has been a rollercoaster, with tariffs already disrupting supply chains and raising costs. Progress in this week’s talks—say, a rollback of tariffs or a broader agreement—would be a boon, easing inflationary pressures by lowering input costs and boosting business confidence.

This could reduce the need for Fed intervention, supporting growth organically and lifting market sentiment. Stocks might rally, and risk assets like Bitcoin (recently at US$104,077) could see further gains as uncertainty fades.

But the flip side is grim. If talks falter or new tariffs emerge, it would amplify the economic headwinds Powell has flagged. Higher costs would fuel inflation, while disrupted trade could crimp growth—echoing the stagflation fears he’s voiced.

The recap ties this directly to consumer impacts, noting tariffed goods hitting US shores. This scenario might nudge the Fed toward rate cuts to offset a slowdown, though persistent inflation could tie its hands. Markets would likely sour, with equities sliding and safe-haven flows propping up yields or crypto.

UK seal: Limited but symbolic

The limited UK trade deal raises questions about tariff relief and supply chain benefits. While less consequential than a China breakthrough, it could still ease costs for specific sectors, offering a modest tailwind.

However, its impact might be overshadowed by the China talks’ broader stakes. Powell’s focus on trade policy as a whole suggests the Fed will weigh these developments collectively, not in isolation.

Market sentiment: A week of reckoning

Markets are at a crossroads, with stocks pausing near resistance and investors bracing for this week’s catalysts. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow’s recent dips reflect caution, while Bitcoin’s climb past US$100,000 and Ethereum’s rally (up 37.14 per cent last week to US$2,600) hint at risk-on bets amid uncertainty. But sentiment hinges on how these events play out.

Scenarios and reactions

A “Goldilocks” outcome—moderate CPI, solid retail sales, dovish Powell, and trade progress—could spark a rally, with rate cut odds firming up for July and equities breaking resistance. Yields might dip as bonds gain favour, and crypto could ride the wave.

But a stagflationary mix—high CPI, weak sales, hawkish Powell, and trade tensions—might tank stocks, lift yields, and drive volatility. A middle ground, with mixed data and a noncommittal Fed, could keep markets range-bound, prolonging the wait for clarity.

Broader context: Trump’s policies and crypto

The recap’s nod to Trump’s Executive Order slashing drug prices (set for May 12, 2025) adds a wildcard. Early market reactions—Pfizer down 3.2 per cent, Johnson & Johnson off 2.8 per cent, XLV ETF dropping 1.9 per cent—suggest sectoral pressure that could spill over, nudging investors toward alternatives like Bitcoin and Ethereum (up 1.5 per cent and 1.2 per cent post-announcement).

Crypto’s resilience amid this, plus Ethereum’s Petra upgrade boosting scarcity, underscores its growing role as a sentiment barometer.

My view: A tense balancing act ahead

In my view, this week’s events will test the Fed’s resolve and market nerves. I expect CPI to come in slightly above consensus, reflecting tariff-driven price pressures, while retail sales hold steady but show early cracks from consumer caution.

Powell will likely strike a balanced tone, acknowledging risks but avoiding firm commitments—keeping rate cut bets alive but distant. Trade talks with China might yield incremental progress, though not enough to shift the tariff burden significantly, while the UK deal offers symbolic relief.

This mix suggests the Fed will stay pat for now, with rate cuts more likely in late 2025 unless growth falters sharply. Markets could seesaw—equities dipping on inflation fears, then recovering if Powell soothes nerves, while crypto holds firm as a hedge.

The bigger story is the Fed’s tightrope walk: tariffs and inflation threaten its mandate, but robust data might delay easing. Investors should buckle up for a bumpy ride as these forces collide.

 

Source: https://e27.co/how-cpi-retail-sales-and-powells-speech-could-shape-fed-policy-and-market-sentiment-20250512/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

From tariffs to Powell’s speech: Will crypto dips and stocks rally?

From tariffs to Powell’s speech: Will crypto dips and stocks rally?

The recovery in global risk sentiment, spurred by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs (except for China), brought a much-needed sigh of relief to equity markets. Yet, beneath the surface, there’s a nagging sense that we’re not out of the woods. The bond market’s volatility, surging inflation expectations, and a weakening consumer sentiment all point to deeper uncertainties that could shape the trajectory of the global economy in the weeks and months ahead.

Let’s unpack this week’s developments and what they mean for investors, consumers, and policymakers.

The US equity markets staged an impressive rebound last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing five per cent, the S&P 500 gaining 5.7 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite surging 7.5 per cent. These gains came after a tumultuous period where markets were rattled by fears of an escalating trade war, particularly between the US and China. Trump’s decision to pause tariffs for 90 days on most trading partners, allowing time for negotiations, was a pivotal moment. It signaled a potential de-escalation, at least temporarily, and markets responded with enthusiasm. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” reflected this shift, dropping to 37 after spiking above 50 earlier in the week. That’s still elevated compared to historical norms, suggesting investors remain on edge, but it’s a far cry from the panic levels seen during the height of the tariff uncertainty.

The bond market told a different story. The selloff in US Treasuries was striking, with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping nine basis points to 4.48 per cent and the two-year yield climbing 12 basis points to 3.97 per cent. This was the largest weekly surge in yields in over two decades, a clear signal that investors are bracing for higher inflation and possibly tighter monetary policy. The ongoing US-China trade war, despite the tariff pause for other nations, continues to stoke fears of supply chain disruptions and rising costs. When goods become more expensive due to tariffs, businesses often pass those costs onto consumers, fueling inflation. The bond market’s reaction suggests that investors are betting on this scenario playing out, even if equities are basking in the tariff reprieve for now.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, closed lower last week, adding another layer of complexity. A weaker dollar typically supports commodities priced in dollars, and we saw that dynamic play out with gold soaring past US$3,200 per ounce, a two per cent gain for the week. Gold’s rally wasn’t just about a softer dollar—it was also driven by recession fears and the safe-haven demand that kicks in when trade wars escalate. Similarly, Brent crude oil jumped 2.26 per cent to settle at US$65 per barrel, buoyed by comments from US Energy Secretary Chris Wright about potentially ending Iran’s oil exports to pressure the country over its nuclear programme. Geopolitical tensions, layered on top of trade uncertainties, are keeping energy markets volatile, and that’s something I’ll be watching closely in the weeks ahead.

On the economic data front, the picture is sobering. The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April plummeted 11 per cent to 50.8, its lowest level since June 2022. This sharp decline reflects growing anxiety among Americans about the economic fallout from tariffs, rising prices, and uncertainty about jobs and growth. Even more concerning is the surge in inflation expectations, with the one-year outlook hitting 6.7 per cent, the highest since 1981. That’s a staggering figure, and it underscores the psychological impact of the trade war rhetoric and policy shifts. When consumers expect prices to keep rising, they may pull back on spending or demand higher wages, both of which can create a feedback loop that drives inflation higher. For the Federal Reserve, this is a nightmare scenario—balancing growth, inflation, and now trade-driven disruptions.

Over the weekend, the Trump administration added a twist by exempting smartphones, computers, and other tech devices from reciprocal tariffs. This move was a relief for markets, particularly in Asia, where tech supply chains are heavily integrated. Asian equity indices traded higher in early sessions today, and US equity futures pointed to a positive open. The exemption makes sense from a consumer perspective—hitting tech products with tariffs would have driven up prices for everyday goods such as iPhones and laptops, risking a backlash. But it also highlights the delicate balancing act the administration is trying to perform: projecting strength on trade while avoiding self-inflicted economic wounds. I suspect this exemption is a pragmatic nod to the reality that tech is the backbone of modern economies, and disrupting it too severely could backfire.

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech. Investors are desperate for clarity on how the Fed plans to navigate this inflationary environment, especially with consumer sentiment tanking and inflation expectations soaring. Powell has been cagey in recent comments, emphasising that the Fed is monitoring trade policies closely. If he signals a hawkish tilt—perhaps hinting at pausing rate cuts or even tightening policy to combat inflation—it could dampen the equity rally. Conversely, a dovish stance might boost stocks but risks fueling inflation further. It’s a tightrope walk, and Powell’s words will carry immense weight.

China’s first-quarter GDP and monthly activity data, due this week, will also be critical. The trade war with the US is undoubtedly weighing on China’s economy, and weaker-than-expected numbers could reignite fears of a global slowdown. Given that several markets will be closed for Good Friday, trading volumes may be thinner, potentially amplifying any market moves. My sense is that investors are in a wait-and-see mode, parsing every headline for clues about the direction of trade talks and monetary policy.

The cryptocurrency market, meanwhile, has been a mixed bag. Bitcoin slipped more than two per cent on Sunday, trading at US$83,482 during Asian hours. Ethereum fell below US$1,600, and altcoins showed varied performance. The crypto market’s sensitivity to trade policy signals is intriguing—when tariffs on Chinese electronics were floated, digital assets wobbled, likely because of fears that supply chain disruptions could hit mining hardware or broader tech sentiment. Yet, Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor remains undeterred, using social media to double down on his “Buy the Future” mantra. His latest post, timed with Bitcoin’s brief rally to US$83,246, underscores his belief that cryptocurrencies are a hedge against economic chaos. I’m skeptical about Bitcoin’s role as a reliable safe haven—it’s still too volatile and sentiment-driven—but Saylor’s conviction is a reminder of the passionate community behind it.

Ethereum’s technical picture offers some hope for bulls. After finding support at US$1,449 last week, it’s hovering around US$1,638. A close above US$1,700 could spark a rally toward US$1,861, supported by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) that’s climbing toward neutral territory. But the risk of a drop to US$1,300 looms if support breaks. XRP, meanwhile, is showing resilience, stabilizing at US$2.14 after a 14.28 per cent recovery. A break above US$2.23 could push it toward US$2.50, though it needs to hold above its 200-day EMA to sustain momentum. These technical levels matter for traders, but the bigger driver for crypto will be macro developments—trade policies, Fed signals, and global growth.

As I reflect on this week, my view is one of cautious optimism tempered by realism. The tariff pause and tech exemptions are positive steps, but the underlying tensions—US-China trade frictions, inflation fears, and consumer unease—aren’t going away. Equities may continue to climb if trade talks show progress, but the bond market’s warning signs and weak consumer sentiment suggest fragility. Gold’s strength and crypto’s volatility reflect a market searching for anchors in uncertain times. For investors, diversification and vigilance are key. For policymakers, the challenge is to avoid tipping the economy into recession while addressing legitimate trade concerns.

 

Source: https://e27.co/from-tariffs-to-powells-speech-will-crypto-dips-and-stocks-rally-20250414/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j