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Crypto rallies 4.5 per cent amid stock sell-off: Smart money is moving fast

Crypto rallies 4.5 per cent amid stock sell-off: Smart money is moving fast

Markets on January 13 and 14, 2026, signal a divergence between traditional finance and digital assets. In the United States, equities retreated as investors weighed mixed signals from inflation data and the opening salvos of earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 400 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted smaller but still notable declines. Financial stocks led the decline after JPMorgan Chase missed expectations on investment banking fees, underscoring how even modest disappointments can ripple through a market already cautious about the sustainability of growth.

Meanwhile, across the Pacific, Asian markets painted a more optimistic picture. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 0.9 per cent to breach the 54,000 mark for the first time in history, propelled by a weakening yen that slid past 159 per dollar and speculation around a potential snap election. Elsewhere in Asia, gains were modest but consistent, reflecting regional confidence that contrasts with Wall Street’s hesitation.

Commodities and currencies mirrored this tension between caution and opportunity. Gold pulled back slightly from its record high of US$4,644 an ounce to settle at US$4,590, suggesting that while safe-haven demand remains elevated, some investors are rotating into riskier assets. Crude oil rose 2.5 per cent to US$61 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions over potential US tariffs targeting nations trading with Iran. This shows that energy markets remain sensitive to policy-driven uncertainty. Currency markets showed similar stress, with the yen continuing its slide while the euro held steady near US$1.1645.

From my perspective, what stands out is not only the divergence between US and Asian equity performance but also the concurrent surge in crypto markets. Bitcoin reclaimed US$95,000, triggering a cascade of algorithmic buying and liquidating US$62 million in short positions within 24 hours. This move was not speculative noise. It was structurally reinforced by institutional momentum. Morgan Stanley’s filing for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs marks a pivotal expansion of regulated crypto access, following Grayscale’s own exploratory filings and bolstered by pro-crypto political rhetoric. The numbers speak clearly: US$571 million flowed into Bitcoin ETFs this week, while Ethereum attracted US$1.24 billion. These are not marginal bets. They represent deep conviction from traditional finance players.

The technical breakout in Bitcoin coincided with a sharp spike in funding rates, up 87 per cent in one day, as leveraged traders scrambled to cover shorts after the price pierced the US$94,500 Fibonacci resistance. Open interest fell by nearly 10 per cent, indicating a wave of deleveraging rather than a new speculative buildup. That distinction matters. It suggests the rally has a foundation beyond hype. It reflects both institutional validation and a clearing of excessive bearish positioning.

Caution remains warranted. While cooler-than-expected US CPI data offered relief, bond markets still price in no Federal Reserve rate cuts until mid-2026. China’s consumer prices rose 0.8 per cent year-over-year, the fastest since early 2023, even as producer prices stayed deflationary, hinting at fragile domestic demand. These macro crosscurrents mean that while crypto enjoys a moment of strength, it does so against a backdrop where traditional markets are still searching for clarity.

In conclusion, January 14 presents a world in which legacy markets tread carefully amid earnings scrutiny and geopolitical friction, while digital assets surge amid institutional adoption and technical triggers. The real test will come in whether Bitcoin can hold above US$94,000 without immediate profit-taking. If it does, this rally may signal more than a short-term bounce. It could mark the beginning of a new phase in which crypto operates not as a fringe asset but as a core component of diversified portfolios.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-rallies-4-5-per-cent-amid-stock-sell-off-smart-money-is-moving-fast-20260114/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
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Why MSTR Common Stock Is Not a Pure Bitcoin Play

Why MSTR Common Stock Is Not a Pure Bitcoin Play

Let’s cut through the noise. If you’re holding MicroStrategy (MSTR -3.77%), now officially rebranded as Strategy, common stock, you’re not getting an unfiltered slice of its Bitcoin treasury. The company likes to talk about “BTC per share” as if it’s a pure, per-share claim on its growing stack. But that number is an illusion. It’s a headline figure that ignores the reality of Strategy’s increasingly complex capital structure, where preferred shareholders now sit firmly ahead of you in the pecking order.

As of early December 2025, Strategy holds over 650,000 BTC, making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC +1.15%) on the planet. At market prices, that’s well over 56 billion dollars in digital gold. Sounds impressive and it is. But here’s what the glossy investor decks won’t emphasize. A significant and growing portion of that value is already pledged, implicitly or explicitly, to support layers of senior capital that have priority over your common shares.

Over the past year, Strategy has aggressively shifted its financing strategy away from traditional convertible debt and toward a new breed of BTC-backed preferred equity. In 2025 alone, it has launched multiple series of perpetual preferred stock, including STRC, STRD, STRF, and STRK, each designed as an overcollateralized, high-yielding claim on the company’s Bitcoin holdings. For example, the STRK offering in January 2025 alone amounted to 7.3 million shares, and a July 2025 filing announced another 28 million shares of Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock. These aren’t incidental issuances. They’re central to Strategy’s “21/21 Plan,” an ambitious roadmap to raise 42 billion dollars through a mix of equity and fixed-income instruments to buy even more Bitcoin.

Crucially, these preferred shares carry liquidation preferences, typically 100 dollars per share, and high fixed or variable dividend yields, often in the 8 to 10 percent range. More importantly, they are marketed as providing “downside protection” to investors, explicitly backed by the company’s Bitcoin collateral. This isn’t just marketing fluff. In any stress scenario, even one short of formal bankruptcy, management has a clear incentive, both legally and reputationally, to preserve the value and payouts of these preferred instruments before considering residual upside for common shareholders.

This is where the “BTC per share” metric breaks down. It divides total Bitcoin holdings by the number of common shares outstanding, creating the false impression that each share represents an undiluted claim on the asset. In reality, enterprise value flows through a waterfall. First to debt holders, which still total several billion dollars, then to preferred shareholders, and only what’s left over belongs to common equity. Even if Strategy never defaults and there’s no indication it’s close to doing so, the economic reality of senior claims permanently dilutes the effective Bitcoin exposure of common shares.

Think of it this way. Every dollar of BTC used to collateralize and support preferred dividends is a dollar that can’t amplify returns for common holders. The yield paid to preferred shareholders isn’t free. It’s extracted from the same pool of value that common shareholders hope to benefit from. That’s not a bug. It’s a feature of how capital structure works. Equity is always the residual claimant, and its fair value is always enterprise value minus all senior obligations.

This has direct implications for how we should value MSTR’s common stock. The commonly cited “mNAV,” or modified Net Asset Value, is often calculated simply as market capitalization divided by the value of Bitcoin holdings. But this version is misleading. A more accurate mNAV would subtract the fair market value of all debt and preferred equity from the Bitcoin treasury before comparing it to the market cap of common shares. And when you do that math, the result is clear. The effective BTC backing per common share is lower than the headline number suggests.

In fact, given the scale of preferred issuance in 2025, with over 20 billion dollars raised through capital markets year to date, primarily via equity and preferred stock, it’s entirely rational for MSTR’s mNAV to trade below 1.0 on a structural basis. That doesn’t mean the company is failing. It just means the market is finally pricing in the reality that common shareholders don’t own the whole stack. They own what’s left after the senior layers have been satisfied.

The bottom line is this. Strategy has built a fascinating financial vehicle, but it’s not a pure Bitcoin proxy for common shareholders. The BTC-backed preferred stack isn’t a side note. It’s a core part of the capital structure that materially reduces the economic claim of MSTR holders. Until investors fully internalize this, the common stock will remain priced with a hidden discount. Recognizing that isn’t pessimism. It’s just clarity. And in a market where narratives often override structure, clarity is the rarest asset of all.

 

Source: https://www.securities.io/strategy-mstr-bitcoin-per-share-illusion/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

How is the UK-US trade deal shaping cryptocurrency and stock market trends?

How is the UK-US trade deal shaping cryptocurrency and stock market trends?

I’m excited to dive into the multifaceted implications of the recent UK-US trade deal and its ripple effects across macroeconomic indicators, equity markets, foreign exchange, commodities, fixed income, and even the booming cryptocurrency sector.

This deal, alongside other economic developments, paints a complex yet fascinating picture of where the world economy might be headed in the coming months.

Below, I’ll offer my detailed perspective on these topics, weaving together the facts and data provided to give you a comprehensive view of what’s happening and why it matters.

Macroeconomic developments: A trade deal with big implications

The UK-US trade deal is a landmark agreement that’s making waves in the global economic landscape. At its core, it maintains a 10 per cent tariff on UK goods entering the US—a compromise from the steeper tariffs initially floated by the Trump administration. This tariff level strikes a balance, protecting some US industries while still fostering trade with a key ally.

What really stands out, though, is the deal’s hefty commitments: the UK will purchase US$10 billion worth of Boeing planes, a massive win for the American aerospace giant and a boost to US manufacturing jobs.

Meanwhile, Rolls Royce gets a golden ticket to export parts tariff-free, which could supercharge its revenue and strengthen the UK’s position in the high-tech engineering sector. The goal here is clear—both nations are aiming to juice up their export opportunities and rake in more revenue, a strategic move in a world where trade tensions have been simmering for years.

But this deal doesn’t exist in a vacuum. President Trump’s upbeat comments about upcoming tariff talks with China add another layer of intrigue. If those negotiations—set to kick off in Switzerland this weekend—go well, we could see a broader easing of trade barriers, which would be a game-changer for global markets.

Imagine a scenario where the US, UK, and China start aligning their trade policies more closely; it could unlock a flood of economic activity and calm jittery investors who’ve been on edge since the trade wars kicked off.

On the domestic front, though, the US economy is sending mixed signals. Nonfarm labor productivity dropped by 0.8 per cent in the first quarter, which sounds alarming until you dig into the details. Oxford Economics chalks this up to one-off quirks—think temporary disruptions or statistical noise—rather than a sign of deeper trouble.

At the same time, labor costs shot up by 5.7 per cent , but here’s the kicker: this doesn’t seem to point to runaway wage growth. Employers might just be shelling out more for benefits or overtime rather than hiking base salaries across the board. Jobless claims offer a brighter spot, falling to 228,000 against expectations, with continued claims steady at 1.879 million.

Even with tariffs in play, the labor market’s holding firm—last week’s uptick was just a blip tied to New York’s school spring break. Looking ahead, we’ll get a clearer read on labor trends by the July FOMC meeting, but for now, don’t hold your breath for a June rate cut. The Fed’s likely to sit tight until the data paints a sharper picture.

Equity markets: Riding the wave of trade optimism

Over in the equity markets, the mood is unmistakably upbeat, and it’s easy to see why. The S&P 500 climbed 0.6 per cent , the Nasdaq leapt 1.1 per cent , and the Dow tacked on 255 points—all fuelled by this trade deal and a sigh of relief over cooling geopolitical tensions. Trump’s been vocal about this, urging investors to “buy stocks now” and calling the UK deal a breakthrough for American exports.

Sure, that 10 per cent tariff lingers, but the Boeing purchase and Rolls Royce perk more than offset the sting for many market watchers. His hint at possible tariff cuts with China, depending on those Switzerland talks, only adds to the bullish vibe.

Tech stocks are the stars of this rally. Tesla revved up 3.1 per cent , Palantir rocketed 7.8 per cent , and heavyweights like Apple and Alphabet clawed back some recent losses. It’s a classic case of trade optimism lifting all boats—well, almost all. Arm stumbled 6.2 per cent after a gloomy forecast, and Eli Lilly shed 3.2 per cent as healthcare stocks took a hit across Europe and North America.

After hours, Coinbase tripped too, dropping 2.6 per cent after missing revenue targets and reporting a jaw-dropping 94 per cent plunge in net income, thanks to a markdown on its crypto holdings. It’s a reminder that even in a rising market, not every company’s riding the same wave.

Europe’s markets echoed this positivity on Thursday, with the STOXX 50 up 1.1 per cent and the STOXX 600 edging up 0.4 per cent. Tech and financials led the charge—ASML, UniCredit, Santander, and Intesa Sanpaolo all jumped over three per cent —while AB InBev toasted a 3.2 per cent gain on solid earnings.

But it wasn’t all rosy: pharmaceuticals dragged things down, with Novo Nordisk sliding four per cent after slashing guidance on its obesity drug, and Mercedes Benz tanked six per cent after cutting dividends amid economic headwinds.

The EU’s keeping a close eye on this US-UK deal, too, warning of retaliatory tariffs on US goods if its own trade talks falter. Meanwhile, central banks are in a holding pattern—the Riksbank and Norges Bank stood pat, but the Bank of England trimmed rates, adding another twist to the monetary policy mix.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.8 per cent to 22,881, stretching its winning streak to six sessions. The Fed and HKMA holding rates steady, paired with Trump’s trade deal buzz, lit a fire under consumer and tech stocks.

China’s central bank, the PBoC, pitched in with rate cuts and growth-friendly policies, though financials lagged, and worries about Beijing’s fiscal plans and looming economic data kept gains in check. It’s a delicate balance—optimism is high, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty in the air.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and Ethereum steal the spotlight

Now, let’s talk crypto, because it’s impossible to ignore the fireworks here. Bitcoin’s charging toward its January 2025 peak of US$109,000, recently blasting past US$99,800. What’s driving this? A perfect storm of institutional buying, ETF inflows, and the buzz from these US-UK-China trade talks.

If it punches through that psychological US$100,000 barrier, analysts see it soaring to US$110,000 or even US$120,000. State-level regulations in the US are turning more crypto-friendly, too, giving this rally some serious legs. It’s not just hype—Bitcoin’s becoming a legit player in the financial world.

Ethereum’s no slouch either, trading at US$3,762.59 with a whopping 29.61 per cent gain this week alone, including a US$120 spike in 24 hours. Analysts are more cautious here, pegging a May price around US$1,665 and a year-end range of US$1,445 to US$2,900.

But don’t sleep on ETH—it’s the backbone of hot trends like DeFi, NFTs, and tokenisation. While Bitcoin grabs headlines, Ethereum’s quietly building the infrastructure for the next wave of digital finance.

Currencies and gold feel the heat, yields shift with the tide

The trade deal’s shaking up the forex market, too. The British pound’s getting a lift as investors cheer the UK’s Boeing buy and Rolls Royce boost, even with that 10 per cent tariff in place. The Japanese yen, though, is lagging—likely a victim of the dollar’s muscle flexing on the global stage.

Speaking of which, that dollar strength is hammering gold, which has slumped for two straight days. It’s a textbook move: when the greenback shines, safe-haven assets like gold tend to take a backseat.

In the bond world, yields are getting cheaper, especially at the front and belly of the curve. Think shorter- and medium-term Treasuries here—this shift suggests markets are recalibrating after the trade news and mixed economic data.

Investors might be betting on steady or slightly higher rates down the line, or just adjusting to a world where trade deals could juice up growth without sparking inflation fears just yet.

My POV: A pivotal moment with plenty of unknowns

So, what’s my view on all this? The UK-US trade deal is a big deal—pun intended. It’s a pragmatic step that keeps trade flowing while dodging the all-out tariff wars some feared. That US$10 billion Boeing haul and Rolls Royce’s tariff-free exports are concrete wins, and if Trump’s China talks bear fruit, we could be on the cusp of a broader trade thaw.

Economically, the US is in a weird spot—productivity’s down, labor costs are up, but the job market’s steady as a rock. It’s not screaming recession, but it’s not exactly a boom either. The Fed’s got a tough call ahead, and I’d bet they hold off on any big moves until summer.

The equity markets are loving this trade optimism, and I get it—stocks thrive on stability and growth signals. Tech’s leading the pack, but those healthcare and crypto stumbles show how uneven this rally is. Europe and Hong Kong are in sync, though local quirks like pharma woes and China’s fiscal tightrope keep things interesting.

Crypto’s the wild card—Bitcoin’s on a tear, and Ethereum’s got staying power. If you’re an investor, this feels like a moment to watch closely, not jump in blind.

The pound’s pop and gold’s dip make sense in this dollar-driven world, and those yield shifts hint at markets still figuring out what’s next. Overall, this deal’s a shot in the arm for global trade, but it’s not a cure-all. The China talks, labor trends, and sector shakeouts will tell us whether this is a turning point or just a blip.

For now, I’m cautiously optimistic—there’s potential here, but plenty of hurdles too. Stay tuned; the next few months could be a wild ride.

 

Source: https://e27.co/how-is-the-uk-us-trade-deal-shaping-cryptocurrency-and-stock-market-trends-20250509/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j