Tag Archives: support

S&P 500 correlation hits 60 per cent while Bitcoin tests critical support

S&P 500 correlation hits 60 per cent while Bitcoin tests critical support

The crypto market declined 0.65 per cent over the past 24 hours, bringing its total valuation to US$2.22 trillion. Bitcoin led the downturn as institutional sellers aggressively exited positions. Data shows a strong 60 per cent correlation with the S&P 500, indicating a shared macro-driven move across asset classes. Investors observe this connection to understand how traditional finance influences digital assets. Bitcoin’s dominance currently sits at 57.88 per cent, highlighting its role as the market leader.

The core driver remains continued institutional distribution as large holders reduce exposure. This shift means capital leaves the ecosystem at a significant rate. The primary reason for this drop involves sustained institutional outflows from the United States of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. SEC filings revealed net selling of these shares, equivalent to roughly 25,000 BTC, in the fourth quarter of 2025. This unwinding of institutional positions creates persistent sell pressure that weighs heavily on prices. Capital exits the regulated gateway for institutional crypto exposure, undermining a key pillar of recent market support. Traders watch daily ETF flow data closely because a consecutive string of net inflows would stabilise Bitcoin and the broader market.

The secondary reasons for the decline include spillover from a risk-off move in tech equities and persistently negative market sentiment. Readings reflect extreme fear in the market with the Fear and Greed Index at 11. This low number suggests investors feel panic rather than opportunity. Crypto moves with traditional risk assets and does not decouple during these periods. A sell-off in tech stocks contributed to the risk-off environment, and uncertainty around AI advancements, such as the Anthropic Claude launch, fuelled this sentiment. This sentiment compounds the extreme fear in crypto and amplifies the downturn.

Negative macro sentiment and equity weakness work together to push values lower. Investors should watch for stabilisation in major tech indices such as QQQ and SPY as a precursor to relief in crypto. Sentiment shifted from AI disruption fears to AI opportunity after the AMD Meta deal. Battered software stocks also stabilised as investors reconsidered the immediate threat of AI replacing existing enterprise systems. This stabilisation in tech could help crypto if the correlation holds true.

The near-term market outlook depends on Bitcoin defending the US$2.17 trillion total market cap, which marks the yearly low. The Relative Strength Index at 36.96 suggests the market is approaching oversold territory but has not yet reached it. A break below US$2.17 trillion could trigger another leg down toward the 200-day moving average near US$3.07 trillion, according to the provided technical analysis. Conversely, a hold above support combined with a return of positive ETF flows could set the stage for a technical bounce.

The key trigger to watch involves the release of daily United States Bitcoin ETF flow data. A reversal hinges on sustained positive ETF net flows. Without this change, the bearish pressure will likely continue. The downturn fuels itself through institutional capital rotation out of Bitcoin ETFs, and correlated weakness in tech stocks exacerbates the pressure. Technical indicators show the market becomes oversold, but a definitive bottom requires a shift in institutional behaviour.

Broader economic factors also play a critical role in shaping this landscape. Policy uncertainty emerged as a new 10 per cent global United States tariff came into effect on 24 February. Markets appeared to have largely priced in the impact following recent Supreme Court rulings. Consumer confidence supports the S&P 500 after the Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in February. This number beat economist predictions of 87.4 and provides some stability to equities.

Energy and geopolitics influence the picture as crude oil prices eased by approximately one per cent. Iran indicated readiness to negotiate ahead of nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday. Brent futures settled at US$70.77 per barrel, which helps reduce inflationary fears slightly. Commodities and Treasury yields show mixed signals that affect risk appetite. Gold prices pulled back slightly on 24 February to approximately US$5,150 per ounce as profit-taking occurred after Monday’s record-setting rally. Indian-based prices for 24K gold reached a new high of ₹1.62 lakh per 10 grams on 25 February, driven by continued safe-haven demand. This divergence shows that investors are seeking safety in physical assets as trading volumes adjust in Western markets.

Treasuries indicate steady yield expectations, as the benchmark 10-year United States Treasury yield held near 4.04 per cent. The two-year yield ticked up slightly to 3.459 per cent, which signals short-term rate expectations remain firm. Currency markets show the United States Dollar firmed while the Japanese Yen weakened. The USD/JPY pair pulled above 155.25, reflecting strength in the greenback against major peers.

A strong dollar often pressures risk assets like crypto because it reduces the appeal of non-yielding investments. Sentiment shifted from AI disruption fears to AI opportunity after the AMD Meta deal. Battered software stocks also stabilised as investors reconsidered the immediate threat of AI replacing existing enterprise systems. This stabilisation in tech could benefit crypto if the correlation holds. The business landscape evolves rapidly, and these shifts matter for digital asset valuations. Investors must weigh the tariff impacts against the gains in consumer confidence. The interplay between oil prices and gold demand shows a complex global picture.

Market outlook remains bearish under current conditions. Only a sustained shift in the above-mentioned areas will reverse the current trend. The market waits for clarity on institutional intent and macro stability. Until then, the pressure remains on the downside.

 

Source: https://e27.co/sp-500-correlation-hits-60-per-cent-while-bitcoin-tests-critical-support-20260225/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
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Crypto in the danger zone: Technical weakness, low volume, and a critical support test

Crypto in the danger zone: Technical weakness, low volume, and a critical support test

January 22 delivered a compelling narrative of a global financial landscape in flux, where traditional equities soared on the wings of diplomatic optimism while the volatile realm of digital assets cooled significantly. The day was marked by a second consecutive session of gains for major US stock indices, a direct consequence of easing geopolitical tensions and a corresponding retreat of the US dollar. This confluence of factors painted a complex picture for investors everywhere, highlighting a clear rotation of capital back into regional markets and safe-haven commodities.

My view is that these events highlight a fragile market sentiment, heavily influenced by headline news and the immediate unwinding of risk positions. The market’s sharp positive reaction to President Trump’s reported “framework” deal over Greenland, which ostensibly cooled global tensions and averted a looming trade war with new European tariffs, reveals a nervous system quick to price in relief. This optimism was evident in the performance of the S&P 500, which advanced 0.55 per cent to close at 6,913.35, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose 0.63 per cent (306.78 points) to 49,384.01, and the Nasdaq Composite, which gained 0.91 per cent to settle at 23,436.02. This movement was not without specific stock stories, as tech giants such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms all ended higher, and Intel shares rose slightly ahead of their quarterly results. Conversely, Abbott Laboratories shares fell sharply, reminding us that company-specific fundamentals, such as the impact of higher prices on sales growth, always matter, even amid broader market rallies.

The easing of global tensions also had a palpable effect on commodities and currencies. The US dollar index was 0.5 per cent lower at 98.30, marking its biggest single-day fall in a month. This decline acted as a potent catalyst for gold, the traditional safe-haven metal, which soared to an all-time high, climbing above US$4,960 an ounce in the spot market. It is a classic market reaction: a weakening dollar and reduced global risk perception often see a surge in the appeal of the yellow metal. Concurrently, WTI crude futures fell below US$60 a barrel, declining more than two per cent to US$59.35, as the geopolitical risk premium that often elevates oil prices evaporated with news of the diplomatic breakthrough. The bond market remained relatively stable throughout, with the 10-year Treasury yield at approximately 4.25 per cent, little changed from the previous day’s close.

However, a different, more cautious mood permeated the digital asset ecosystem. While traditional assets rallied, the crypto market fell 0.64 per cent over the last 24 hours, extending a seven-day decline of 6.5 per cent. This divergence suggests a distinct risk-off environment within the crypto space, driven by specific structural concerns rather than immediate global headlines. My take is that the crypto market is currently grappling with a crisis of conviction, primarily stemming from large institutional players. The data is clear: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$1.58 billion in net outflows this week, a powerful signal of institutional profit taking and reduced exposure. This consistent selling pressure is outweighing retail buying, creating a market that lacks a necessary institutional bid to support prices.

The lack of institutional support is compounded by a significant plunge in trading activity. Total 24-hour trading volume fell 32.8 per cent to US$98.43 billion, with derivatives volume down 37 per cent. This sharp drop indicates low trader conviction and reduced liquidity, making prices prone to slippage even on modest sell orders. In thin markets, downward moves are often amplified. Technically, the market is testing a critical support level at the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of US$3.01 trillion global market cap. The RSI sits at 43.74, neutral but weak. The conclusion I draw is that this is not a broad market panic but a targeted period of consolidation rooted in institutional caution and evaporating volumes.

For holders, the immediate future hinges on whether these ETF outflows persist and if that crucial US$3.01 trillion support level can hold firm over the next 48 hours. The contrasting performance of traditional and digital markets on this day provides a fascinating study of how different asset classes react to unique combinations of macro and microeconomic pressures.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-in-the-danger-zone-technical-weakness-low-volume-and-a-critical-support-test-20260123/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Anndy Lian advocates using BNB for animal shelter support

Anndy Lian advocates using BNB for animal shelter support

Anndy Lian has announced a donation to a private animal shelter in Xian, China. This contribution is facilitated using BNB, underscoring his support for the cryptocurrency.

Lian expressed gratitude towards the team at Blockcastcc, Redecentralise, Jenny Zheng, AnndyFund, and a collaborator, Noel, for their efforts. Additionally, he acknowledged a typographical error in a prior post, encouraging others to join in using BNB.

 

 

Lian’s recent philanthropic gesture highlights not only the growing influence of cryptocurrency in charitable giving but also mirrors trends seen during periods of heightened market uncertainty. Earlier, similar shifts in crypto user behavior were evident when MEXC faced frozen withdrawals and declining trading volumes, prompting a reevaluation of digital asset reliability. Additionally, as underlying market liquidity remains a decisive factor for both trading and philanthropy, Lian’s perspective on the approaching liquidity crisis offers further context to this latest donation, underscoring the interconnected nature of crypto markets and broader economic developments.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j