July 8th, 2026

Why Bitcoin’s record on chain activity is not the price guarantee you think it is

Bitcoin has retreated by 0.52 per cent over a 24h period, sliding to US$63,593.12 and underperforming a generally flat broader market. This downward movement stems primarily from a firm technical rejection at key resistance zones alongside cooling momentum following a strong weekly rally. Sellers emerged to halt the July advance, which had reached 8.4 per cent before hitting a known technical ceiling near US$65,800. Compounding this technical slowdown is a notable 13.95 per cent drop in 24h trading volume, indicating reduced buying conviction after the market booked four consecutive daily gains last week.

Beyond the immediate price action and cooling technical indicators, underlying demand metrics point to broader institutional hesitation in Western markets. United States spot demand remains structurally subdued, as evidenced by the Coinbase premium remaining negative for over 50 days. This persistent discount suggests that domestic retail and institutional investors are withholding aggressive buy orders, leaving spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows highly inconsistent. At the same time, aggregate open interest in Bitcoin futures markets has declined. This reduction in open interest signals that speculative leverage is actively leaving the market rather than expanding, leaving recent price gains vulnerable to pullbacks without a strong institutional bid to support the base.

While the short-term price action remains constrained by these technical ceilings and cooling derivatives markets, the underlying Bitcoin network is experiencing an unprecedented surge in utility. On-chain data indicate that Bitcoin is processing its highest sustained transaction volume in its 17-year history. The network is averaging approximately 670,000 transactions per day throughout 2026, nearly doubling last year’s activity and approaching prior all-time highs. A deeper analysis reveals that recent data indicate the network processes an average of 673,822 transactions per day. This broad-based rebound in usage is characterised by a high volume of small transactions and emerging applications, rather than by large-value transfers alone.

Specific daily metrics confirm the historic scale of this on-chain activity. According to block data, the Bitcoin network processed 862,979 transactions on June 23, 2026, marking the 3rd-busiest single day in the protocol’s history. This explosive activity lifted the daily average for June 2026 to 651,655 transactions, a 90 per cent increase over the June 2025 daily average of 342,866 transactions. Both the median and average daily transaction counts across 2026 now comfortably exceed the full-year totals for 2024 and 2025. This structural shift is driven largely by an increase in smaller transactions, alongside innovative use cases such as Bitcoin non-fungible tokens and timestamping services that write data directly to the blockchain.

This high transaction count introduces a complex dynamic for the ecosystem, as it reflects a diverse mix of traditional value transfers, exchange settlements, whale movements, and newer programmable applications. For everyday users, this elevated activity demands close observation of average fees, mempool sizes, and layer 2 sidechain congestion to determine if the base layer can handle the load. The current market outlook remains neutral to bearish below immediate resistance, though the primary trend hinges on the US$63,619 support level, which aligns with the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci regression. If Bitcoin can defend this support level, it sets up another potential run toward US$65,800, whereas a daily close below this level risks an immediate drop to US$61,377.

The market’s immediate direction is closely tied to broader macroeconomic shocks and sudden geopolitical escalations that are fracturing global investor confidence. Major global financial markets fell sharply as escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, combined with a steep semiconductor sell-off, broke the record-setting momentum on Wall Street. Following Iran’s targeting of three commercial tankers in the critical Strait of Hormuz, the United States military executed powerful retaliatory airstrikes. Simultaneously, the United States Treasury revoked a vital waiver that had previously allowed Iran to sell crude oil globally, triggering fears of severe supply disruptions and sending global energy benchmarks rocketing upward.

The impact of these energy market disruptions was immediate and volatile across global oil benchmarks. Brent crude surged by over five per cent to breach US$75.70 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 5.3 per cent to finish trading above US$72.20 per barrel. This inflationary energy shock hit equity markets precisely as technology stocks suffered an independent structural rout. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell significantly, led by a 4.65 per cent plunge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Investor confidence in long-term market dominance and pricing power evaporated after reports that a Chinese startup, DeepSeek, is independently developing its own artificial intelligence chip architecture, shaking the core growth thesis of established technology giants.

This shift in technology sector sentiment highlights a growing disconnect between blockbuster corporate earnings and loftier investor expectations. Samsung Electronics reported record preliminary quarterly profits, yet its stock still plunged 6.9 per cent in Asian trading, illustrating that market expectations for artificial intelligence build-out metrics have reached unsustainably high levels. The resulting sector pullback forced major tech components lower, with Micron falling 4.7 per cent and SanDisk retreating by 7.3 per cent. These equity losses were exacerbated by macro pressures in fixed-income markets, where the United States 10-Year Treasury yield edged up to 4.556 per cent, compressing stock valuations across high-growth sectors.

Faced with these overlapping pressures, investors are demonstrating severe caution ahead of the afternoon release of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the June meeting. This policy document represents the very first official communication issued under the leadership of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Market participants are waiting to see whether Bitcoin can reclaim its 7-day exponential moving average near US$62,702 or if macro comments will force a deeper flush toward lower support levels. I said the same yesterday, too.

The combination of technical resistance, weak spot demand, semiconductor sector anxiety, and escalating energy prices has forced a neutral range consolidation, proving that even record-breaking on-chain utility cannot completely shield digital assets from macro volatility.

Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoins-record-on-chain-activity-is-not-the-price-guarantee-you-think-it-is-20260708/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

March 31st, 2026

The return of crypto—or just a technical bounce?

The digital asset market climbed 1.1 per cent to reach a total capitalisation of US$2.3 trillion over the past 24 hours, a move that reflects more than simple speculative enthusiasm. This advance stems from a confluence of regulatory progress, institutional signalling, and technical rebound dynamics, all unfolding against a backdrop of heightened macro uncertainty.

What stands out immediately is the market’s tight correlation with traditional risk assets, registering 96 per cent with the S&P 500 and 80 per cent with Gold. This tells us that crypto is no longer moving in isolation but is increasingly priced as part of a broader macro portfolio allocation story.

This integration brings both validation and vulnerability. Validation because institutional capital now treats digital assets as a legitimate component of a diversified strategy. Vulnerability because crypto now inherits the volatility of global risk sentiment, as we saw this week when oil prices surged above US$107 per barrel, and equity indices wavered.

Regulation and institutional appetite drive the bounce

The primary catalyst for the recent uptick comes from Washington and Wall Street. News that the US Senate is advancing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, with committee markup targeted for mid-April, has injected tangible hope that regulatory ambiguity may finally recede. This legislation matters because it promises to define jurisdictional boundaries and compliance pathways, reducing the legal overhang that has constrained institutional participation.

Simultaneously, reports that Morgan Stanley, managing approximately US$6 trillion to US$7 trillion in assets, plans to launch its own branded Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs signal a profound shift. When a firm of that scale commits infrastructure to digital assets, it reflects a strategic calculation that client demand and long-term value outweigh short-term political noise. These developments do more than boost sentiment. They lower the perceived risk premium on crypto exposure, encouraging capital that previously waited on the sidelines to begin deploying. The critical watch items here remain the final text of the Clarity Act and weekly ETF flow data. Sustained recovery depends on whether recent outflows from Bitcoin and Ether ETFs reverse, providing the fresh liquidity needed to fuel a broader advance.

Technical setup was ripe for a rebound

Beneath the regulatory headlines, technical conditions provided a fertile setup for the bounce. The market found support near US$2.27 trillion, a level that has acted as a floor during previous pullbacks. The Relative Strength Index reading of 28.47 confirmed oversold conditions, inviting short-term traders to buy the dip. Gains concentrated in specific narratives, most notably digital identity and sports-related tokens. Ontology surged 45.6 per cent on speculation around European digital identity frameworks, while Chiliz advanced 6.1 per cent ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

This sector rotation reveals a market still searching for conviction. Capital moves toward projects with clear catalysts and tangible use cases rather than spraying indiscriminately across the altcoin universe. The Altcoin Season Index currently sits at 49, suggesting we are not yet in a full altcoin leadership phase. For the rally to broaden, the total market cap must hold above its seven-day simple moving average of US$2.32 trillion and see the Altcoin Season Index trend decisively higher. Without that confirmation, the move remains a technical rebound within a larger corrective structure.

Macro crosscurrents keep crypto on edge

The macro context cannot be ignored. US equity markets closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 49.50 points to 45,216.14, while the S&P 500 fell 25.13 points to 6,343.72, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 153.72 points to 20,794.64. This divergence reflects the tug-of-war between optimistic commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who noted that long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and the shock of oil prices jumping over 5 per cent following reports of an attack on a crude carrier near Dubai. The 10-year US Treasury yield dropping to 4.34 per cent shows investors seeking safety in government bonds even as they nibble at risk assets.

Crypto’s high correlation with the S&P 500 means it will continue to react to these crosscurrents. A sustained break in equities would likely drag digital assets lower regardless of crypto-specific positives. A stabilisation in stocks, combined with improving ETF flows, could propel crypto through key resistance levels. The upcoming April 1 market open and US CPI data represent near-term triggers that could dictate the next leg of price action.

Key levels to watch as market approaches inflexion point

Looking ahead, the market faces a clear inflexion point. Holding the US$2.27 trillion to US$2.33 trillion range is essential for maintaining bullish momentum. A decisive break above US$2.38 trillion, which aligns with the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level, would open a path toward US$2.45 trillion. Failure to hold US$2.27 trillion risks a retest of the February low near US$2.17 trillion.

This technical framework matters because it provides objective levels for assessing market health. More importantly, confirmation of a sustainable bottom requires a daily close above US$2.33 trillion accompanied by expanding volume. Without that evidence, any rally remains suspect. The broader question extends beyond price levels. Can the digital asset ecosystem convert regulatory progress and institutional interest into lasting adoption and utility? The answer will determine whether this bounce evolves into a new bull phase or merely represents a counter-trend rally within a longer consolidation.

The confluence of regulatory clarity, institutional commitment, and technical support creates a constructive setup. The market remains in a corrective phase, and macro headwinds from geopolitics and inflation data pose real risks. What excites me most is not the short-term price action but the ecosystem’s underlying maturation.

Source: https://e27.co/the-return-of-crypto-or-just-a-technical-bounce-20260331/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

January 23rd, 2026

Crypto in the danger zone: Technical weakness, low volume, and a critical support test

January 22 delivered a compelling narrative of a global financial landscape in flux, where traditional equities soared on the wings of diplomatic optimism while the volatile realm of digital assets cooled significantly. The day was marked by a second consecutive session of gains for major US stock indices, a direct consequence of easing geopolitical tensions and a corresponding retreat of the US dollar. This confluence of factors painted a complex picture for investors everywhere, highlighting a clear rotation of capital back into regional markets and safe-haven commodities.

My view is that these events highlight a fragile market sentiment, heavily influenced by headline news and the immediate unwinding of risk positions. The market’s sharp positive reaction to President Trump’s reported “framework” deal over Greenland, which ostensibly cooled global tensions and averted a looming trade war with new European tariffs, reveals a nervous system quick to price in relief. This optimism was evident in the performance of the S&P 500, which advanced 0.55 per cent to close at 6,913.35, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose 0.63 per cent (306.78 points) to 49,384.01, and the Nasdaq Composite, which gained 0.91 per cent to settle at 23,436.02. This movement was not without specific stock stories, as tech giants such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms all ended higher, and Intel shares rose slightly ahead of their quarterly results. Conversely, Abbott Laboratories shares fell sharply, reminding us that company-specific fundamentals, such as the impact of higher prices on sales growth, always matter, even amid broader market rallies.

The easing of global tensions also had a palpable effect on commodities and currencies. The US dollar index was 0.5 per cent lower at 98.30, marking its biggest single-day fall in a month. This decline acted as a potent catalyst for gold, the traditional safe-haven metal, which soared to an all-time high, climbing above US$4,960 an ounce in the spot market. It is a classic market reaction: a weakening dollar and reduced global risk perception often see a surge in the appeal of the yellow metal. Concurrently, WTI crude futures fell below US$60 a barrel, declining more than two per cent to US$59.35, as the geopolitical risk premium that often elevates oil prices evaporated with news of the diplomatic breakthrough. The bond market remained relatively stable throughout, with the 10-year Treasury yield at approximately 4.25 per cent, little changed from the previous day’s close.

However, a different, more cautious mood permeated the digital asset ecosystem. While traditional assets rallied, the crypto market fell 0.64 per cent over the last 24 hours, extending a seven-day decline of 6.5 per cent. This divergence suggests a distinct risk-off environment within the crypto space, driven by specific structural concerns rather than immediate global headlines. My take is that the crypto market is currently grappling with a crisis of conviction, primarily stemming from large institutional players. The data is clear: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$1.58 billion in net outflows this week, a powerful signal of institutional profit taking and reduced exposure. This consistent selling pressure is outweighing retail buying, creating a market that lacks a necessary institutional bid to support prices.

The lack of institutional support is compounded by a significant plunge in trading activity. Total 24-hour trading volume fell 32.8 per cent to US$98.43 billion, with derivatives volume down 37 per cent. This sharp drop indicates low trader conviction and reduced liquidity, making prices prone to slippage even on modest sell orders. In thin markets, downward moves are often amplified. Technically, the market is testing a critical support level at the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of US$3.01 trillion global market cap. The RSI sits at 43.74, neutral but weak. The conclusion I draw is that this is not a broad market panic but a targeted period of consolidation rooted in institutional caution and evaporating volumes.

For holders, the immediate future hinges on whether these ETF outflows persist and if that crucial US$3.01 trillion support level can hold firm over the next 48 hours. The contrasting performance of traditional and digital markets on this day provides a fascinating study of how different asset classes react to unique combinations of macro and microeconomic pressures.

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-in-the-danger-zone-technical-weakness-low-volume-and-a-critical-support-test-20260123/