Trump Vs. Harris: Crypto Experts Give Final U.S. Election Analysis

Trump Vs. Harris: Crypto Experts Give Final U.S. Election Analysis

In the build-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, Bitcoin (BTC) flirted with all-time highs regarding the possibility that pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump would take the helm at the White House.

While polls are set to close on November 5, it could take days or even weeks for a winner to be declared, depending on how close the contest is.

If you are wondering whether now is a good time to buy Bitcoin, we have compiled all the information you need to know about the 2024 U.S. presidential election race.

Key Takeaways

  • The crypto markets nervously await the 2024 U.S. election outcome between Trump and Harris.
  • Polymarket favors Trump as the pro-crypto candidate, contrasting with traditional poll projections.
  • A Harris win may present a Bitcoin buying opportunity, while Trump could boost crypto optimism.
  • Key crypto experts share insights with Techopedia on the potential shift in the regulatory environment post-election.

The Tight 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Race

According to a poll by the New York Times (NYT) and Siena College, the 2024 U.S. presidential election race is the closest it has been in decades.

While odds on the crypto prediction market Polymarket showed Trump as a clear favorite to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Trump at a 61% chance compared to Kamala Harris’ 39%traditional pollsters and media houses expect a tighter contest.

Ahead of the November 5 voting deadline, NYT’s polls highlighted seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – that could decide the fate of the election.

As of November 5, Polymarket polls showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning in Pennsylvania. However, NYT and Siena College’s final set of polls said both Trump and Harris had a 48% chance each of winning in Pennsylvania.

In 2020, current U.S. president Joe Biden won the Pennsylvania state with a narrow 1.17% margin over Trump. The 2016 U.S. presidential election saw Trump win in Pennsylvania by a slender margin.

What Happens to Crypto Post-Election? Expert Analysis

Techopedia reached out to industry experts for exclusive insights on the impact of the U.S. presidential election on the crypto market.

Anndy Lian: Republican Majority in Congress is Key for Crypto Industry

Techopedia reached out to Anndy Lian, intergovernmental blockchain advisor and author of Blockchain Revolution 2030, for his thoughts on the U.S. presidential election race.

Firstly, Lian highlighted how crucial it was for the Trump-led Republican party to secure a majority in both houses of the U.S. Congress.

“For Republicans to effectively push through pro-crypto legislation, they really need to secure a majority in both houses. Without that majority, even a pro-crypto president might struggle to get meaningful bills passed.”

“So, while a Trump victory could spark optimism in the crypto space, the real key to unlocking potential growth lies in having a Republican majority in Congress.

“This combination could pave the way for policies that truly benefit the crypto market and help it thrive in the long run,” he added.

Next, we asked Lian what was in store for the crypto industry if Harris-led Democrats were to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“Harris has talked about supporting technological advancements, including digital assets, but there’s a concern that her policies might not stray far from the regulatory frameworks already in place.

“This could lead to an environment that focuses heavily on consumer protection and oversight, which might limit the more hands-off approach that many crypto advocates prefer.

“In the end, while a Democratic administration under Harris may not be as favorable for crypto as a Republican one, it doesn’t mean the industry is doomed.

The real question will be how her administration chooses to navigate the fast-changing world of cryptocurrencies.”

Finally, we asked Lian what he thought of the common notion that crypto regulations will change for the better no matter who wins the U.S. presidential elections.

“The idea that crypto regulations will improve regardless of who wins the presidency is an interesting one, but I think it oversimplifies a complex issue,” said Lian.

“The regulatory environment is influenced not just by the presidency but also by Congress, state governments, and international regulations.

“Even if there’s a general trend toward better regulations, the specifics will depend on the political climate and the priorities of those in power.”

10x Research: Harris Win Will Be Buying Opportunity

In a research note to Techopedia, 10x Research said the election outcome could hinge on “just one or two critical swing states”.

The Singapore-based crypto research firm noted that Bitcoin prices could slump 9% if Harris wins, while a Trump win could result in a 5% increase in Bitcoin prices.

10x Research added that a Harris win could present Bitcoin investors with a “buying opportunity.”

“The primary driver of this bull market, dating back to at least June 2023, has been the institutional adoption of Bitcoin, sparked by BlackRock’s application for a Bitcoin Spot ETF…

“Even if Harris were to ‘remain’ U.S. President, the impact on Bitcoin would likely be minimal,” said 10x Research.

However, 10x Research noted that this “buying opportunity” is not applicable to other cryptocurrencies, especially Solana (SOL), as a Harris win would lower the chances of a Solana ETF being approved.

“Crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana) could be up +5% if Trump wins, Bitcoin might be down -9% if Harris wins, and Solana -15%. Hence, a long Bitcoin vs. short Solana could be a reasonable election trade,” said 10x Research.

The Bottom Line

The run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election has been incredibly interesting to observe as a crypto enthusiast.

Be it the newfound political importance of the crypto industry or the divergence between traditional polls and crypto platform polls, one thing is for certain: we will remember 2024 as the year crypto came of age.

As we conclude this article, we would like to remind readers that cryptocurrencies are volatile assets. Always do your own research before investing. The information in this guide does not constitute investment advice and is meant for informational purposes only.

 

 

 

Source: https://www.techopedia.com/trump-vs-harris-crypto-experts-final-election-analysis

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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US Elections 2024 and Crypto: How Will Trump or Harris Shape Regulations?

US Elections 2024 and Crypto: How Will Trump or Harris Shape Regulations?
  • Donald Trump wants to become the first “Bitcoin President,” while Kamala Harris promised crypto innovation.
  • A Trump victory could lead to a continuation of the deregulatory approach, but a Harris administration would likely prioritise consumer protection and financial stability.

As the United States gears up for another significant presidential election, the intersection of politics and cryptocurrency has emerged as a critical area of focus. The candidates, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, offer contrasting visions for the future of digital currencies and blockchain technology. This divergence is not only shaping the political landscape but also influencing financial markets, particularly the rapidly growing cryptocurrency sector.

The Crypto Landscape Amidst Political Uncertainty

Cryptocurrency, once a niche interest, has evolved into a major financial force. Its decentralized nature and potential for high returns have attracted a wide range of investors, from tech-savvy millennials to institutional giants. However, the regulatory environment remains uncertain, with policymakers grappling with how to integrate these digital assets into the existing financial system.

In this context, the upcoming U.S. presidential election could be a turning point. The candidates’ differing approaches to cryptocurrency regulation and adoption could have profound implications for the industry. As such, the election is not just a political contest but a referendum on the future of digital finance.

Wall Street’s Bet on Trump

Wall Street’s apparent preference for a Trump victory is rooted in his administration’s historical approach to regulation and taxation. Trump’s presidency was marked by a deregulatory agenda, which many investors believe could benefit the cryptocurrency industry. Lower taxes and fewer regulations could create a more favorable environment for crypto businesses, potentially spurring innovation and growth.

This sentiment is reflected in the behavior of prediction markets, where Trump’s odds of winning have surged. Platforms like Polymarket and PredictIt have seen significant bets placed on a Trump victory, with some investors wagering millions of dollars. These markets, which allow users to bet on the outcome of events using cryptocurrency, have become a barometer of investor sentiment.

The enthusiasm for Trump among crypto investors is not surprising. During his previous term, Trump expressed skepticism about cryptocurrencies but refrained from implementing harsh regulations. His administration’s focus on economic growth and deregulation aligns with the interests of many in the crypto community, who view excessive regulation as a barrier to innovation.

Harris and the Promise of Innovation

In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris represents a more cautious approach to cryptocurrency. While she has not been as vocal about her stance on digital currencies, her campaign has emphasized the importance of innovation and technology. Harris has promised to encourage the development of emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence and digital assets while ensuring consumer protection and financial stability.

Harris’s approach reflects a broader Democratic strategy of balancing innovation with regulation. Her administration would likely prioritize consumer protection and financial stability, potentially leading to stricter regulations on cryptocurrencies. This could include measures to prevent fraud, protect investors, and ensure the stability of the financial system.

Despite these potential challenges, Harris’s focus on innovation could also benefit the crypto industry. By fostering a supportive environment for technological development, her administration could encourage the growth of blockchain technology and digital assets. This could lead to new opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors, even if it means navigating a more complex regulatory landscape.

The Role of Prediction Markets

The divergence between traditional polls and prediction markets highlights the unique dynamics of this election. While many polls show a close race between Trump and Harris, prediction markets have consistently favored Trump. This discrepancy can be attributed to several factors, including the influence of large investors, or “whales,” who have placed substantial bets on a Trump victory.

These markets, which operate on blockchain technology, offer a decentralized platform for betting on the outcome of events. They have gained popularity in recent years, particularly among crypto enthusiasts who appreciate their transparency and accessibility. However, their predictions should be interpreted with caution, as they reflect the views of a specific subset of investors rather than the broader electorate.

The influence of prediction markets on media coverage is also noteworthy. As these platforms have gained prominence, their odds have been cited as evidence of Trump’s growing lead. This has contributed to a narrative that may not fully align with traditional polling data, underscoring the complex relationship between media, markets, and public perception.

The Future of Cryptocurrency Regulation

The outcome of the election will have significant implications for the future of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States. A Trump victory could lead to a continuation of the deregulatory approach that characterized his previous administration. This could create a more favorable environment for crypto businesses, potentially attracting investment and fostering innovation.

On the other hand, a Harris administration would likely prioritize consumer protection and financial stability, potentially leading to stricter regulations. While this could pose challenges for the industry, it could also provide a more stable and secure environment for investors, ultimately benefiting the market’s long-term growth.

Regardless of the outcome, the election will serve as a critical juncture for the cryptocurrency industry. As digital currencies continue to gain traction, policymakers will need to strike a balance between fostering innovation and ensuring the stability and security of the financial system. This will require collaboration between regulators, industry leaders, and other stakeholders to develop a regulatory framework that supports the growth of digital finance while protecting consumers and maintaining financial stability.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Crypto

The U.S. presidential election is a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency industry. The candidates’ differing approaches to regulation and innovation will shape the future of digital finance, influencing everything from market dynamics to investor sentiment. As such, the election is not just a political contest but a referendum on the future of cryptocurrency.

For investors and industry leaders, the stakes are high. A Trump victory could lead to a continuation of the deregulatory approach that has benefited the industry, while a Harris administration could introduce new challenges and opportunities. Regardless of the outcome, the election will serve as a critical juncture for the cryptocurrency industry, shaping its trajectory for years to come.

As the election approaches, the crypto community will be watching closely, eager to see how the outcome will impact the future of digital finance. Whether through deregulation or innovation, the next administration will play a crucial role in shaping the future of cryptocurrency, influencing everything from market dynamics to investor sentiment. In this context, the election is not just a political contest but a referendum on the future of digital finance.

 

Source: https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/us-elections-2024-how-will-trump-or-harris-administration-shape-crypto-regulations/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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How Important is Donald Trump to the Future of Crypto?

How Important is Donald Trump to the Future of Crypto?

The failed assassination attempt on pro-crypto US presidential candidate Donald Trump’s life has the crypto community reevaluating his importance to the future of the crypto industry.

As we come to terms with the shocking incident that occurred at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, 2024, we speak to experts about Trump’s importance to the crypto industry and what could happen if he becomes the 47th president of the United States.

In this article, Techopedia’s expert panel discusses everything from the US Securities and Exchange Commission‘s (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler’s future to Trump’s anti-central bank digital currency (CBDC) campaign.

Key Takeaways

  • Polls suggest a return to the White House for former president Trump after the assassination attempt on his life.
  • Experts consider the crypto landscape under Donald Trump based on his recent crypto remarks.
  • Anndy Lian says Donald Trump’s influence on the future of cryptocurrency is significant.
  • Shiven Moodley says Gary Gensler will be replaced by a pro-crypto candidate if Trump wins.
  • Jacob Martin says a Republican win will see crypto rally alongside stocks.
  • Vijay Pravin says halting CBDCs could “undermine America’s dominance”
  • Trump confirms he will deliver a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference event in July.

How important is Donald Trump to the Future of Crypto?

Over the weekend, absurd new Trump-based memecoins surfaced, and crypto prices traded in the green as the market breathed a sigh of relief after government officials reassured the public that the former President was safe.

 

We contacted experts, analysts, and crypto fund managers to hear their opinions on Trump’s importance to the crypto industry.

Anndy Lian, intergovernmental blockchain expert and author of ‘Blockchain Revolution 2030, told Techopedia:

“In my humble opinion, Donald Trump’s influence on the future of cryptocurrency is significant.

“His potential re-election could usher in a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, fostering innovation and growth in the sector.

“The recent events have only strengthened his position as a key figure for the crypto community, making his political fortunes closely tied to the future trajectory of digital currencies.”

 

Sergei Chmel, managing partner of alternative investment firm SeQuant Capital, acknowledged that Trump was “more favorable” for the crypto industry in comparison to current U.S. President Joe Biden.

However, Chmel added that the crypto industry had become too big for the White House resident to ignore at the end of the November 2024 U.S. Presidential election.

“Maybe Trump is a bit more favorable to crypto than Biden, but considering ETH ETF approval, it seems the Biden administration realizes how big the industry has become. They can’t undo it anymore.”.

Shiven Moodley, chief operating officer and macro strategist at brokerage firm 80eight Group, said Trump was “somewhat important” for the crypto industry in the US over the long-term.

Moodley added that Trump’s “free market ideology, promise of lower corporate taxes and crypto-friendly regulations could have “cascading effects.”

Is Trump a Genuine Crypto Supporter or Testing a Political Strategy?

Next, we asked crypto market experts what they thought of Trump’s sudden shift to pitch himself as the “Crypto President.”

After all, not so long ago, in July 2019, Trump tweeted that he was not a “fan of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” calling them “highly volatile,” “based on thin air” and “unregulated.”

Vijay Pravin, founder of NFT data platform bitsCrunch, shared his view with Techopedia:

“Trump’s viewpoint has obviously changed since he made disparaging remarks about crypto. Since that time frame, the crypto market has evolved substantially, with the long-awaited ETF approvals spurring on greater levels of institutional interest.”

Meanwhile, Lian pointed out three key reasons as to why Trump has had this change of heart:

  • Progress on the crypto regulatory front
  • Crypto’s growing political and economic influence
  • Trump’s election strategy to differentiate himself from the Biden camp.

Lian added:

“Trump has shifted his position, likely recognizing the growing influence and voter base within the crypto community. This change of heart seems to be driven by the desire to capitalize on Biden’s regulatory approach, which has not been well-received by many crypto advocates.”

What Happens to Gary Gensler if Trump Gets Elected?

The U.S. SEC chairman Gary Gensler has been crypto’s arch-nemesis since President Biden took office in 2021.

From suing crypto exchanges and custodial wallet developers to repeatedly calling cryptocurrencies (other than Bitcoin) unregistered securities, Chair Gensler has done enough to provoke the ire of the crypto faithful.

The length of Gensler’s tenure as SEC chair will entirely depend on the U.S. Presidential election results, as the U.S. president has the power to select one of the five SEC commissioners to be the organization’s chairman.

According to Moodley, Gensler will likely be replaced as SEC chair for a “pro-blockchain technology individual” if Trump gets elected for his second term.

“That will lead to major blockchain developments coming from the US but will also shift the regulatory framework from backwards-thinking to forward-looking.”

Elsewhere, Jacob Martin, general partner of crypto venture capital firm 2Punks Capital, told Techopedia:

“A Republican win is likely a boon for crypto and American tech in general. I would assume a stock market rally to coincide.

“At the same time, a Democrat win with Biden as the nominee and a non-removal of Gary Gensler would be about the most bearish and confusing possible outcome for the next few years in crypto.”

What Will Happen to CBDCs Under Trump?

Next, we talk to industry experts about how CBDC development will take shape in the U.S. with Trump at the helm.

Trump’s anti-CBDC stance has been well-received by the crypto faithful. The former president shares community concerns related to privacy breaches and mass surveillance that many fear will arise with CBDC deployment.

In fact, Trump promised to “never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency.”

 

But will Trump as president have the power to stop CBDC developments in the US?

Lian told Techopedia that Trump’s power to end the ongoing CBDC development program is limited by the independence of the Federal Reserve.

“The Federal Reserve, which is responsible for the development and potential implementation of a CBDC, operates independently of the executive branch. This means that while Trump could influence policy and public opinion, he would not have the direct authority to unilaterally halt the CBDC program.”

Meanwhile, Pravin took a cautious stance and said that halting the CBDC development project could “undermine America’s position as a dominant hub for crypto activity.”

“CBDCs are a significant pillar of the digital economy, and a range of nations have already explored the concept of CBDCs to modernize payment systems, enhance financial inclusion and strengthen monetary control.

“Halting CBDC development might discourage innovation and investment in the US crypto space, potentially causing large firms to set up operations in more crypto-friendly jurisdictions.”

The Bottom Line

The crypto industry is doubling down on Donald Trump. After the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania, the chances of Trump winning the November 2024 U.S. Presidential election hit an all-time high of 71% on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket.

Since the attempt on his life, Trump has already confirmed that he will deliver a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference event scheduled to start on July 25, 2024, where he is sure to receive a hero’s welcome.

But, whatever happens in November 2024, this election campaign has showcased crypto’s newfound political relevance. Chmel, one of our expert panel members, summed it up:

“No matter who will be in charge, the genie is out of the bottle, and industry will grow rapidly from here.”

 

Source: https://www.techopedia.com/how-important-is-donald-trump-to-the-future-of-crypto

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j