Despite the rally, the CMC Fear and Greed Index remains at 39, indicating underlying market caution

Despite the rally, the CMC Fear and Greed Index remains at 39, indicating underlying market caution

The global cryptocurrency market currently exhibits a fascinating divergence from traditional equities. Digital assets recently surged 1.52 per cent to reach a total valuation of US$2.19 trillion. This rally highlights a striking negative correlation of 90 per cent with the broader S&P 500 index.

Bitcoin leads this charge, rising 2.23 per cent to US$64,300.94 in the past 24 hours. The primary catalyst for this upward momentum involves a rapid reassessment of United States monetary policy. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius recently declared that a September Federal Reserve interest rate hike remains highly improbable.

Traders immediately absorbed this guidance and forcefully reduced their expectations for tighter monetary conditions. This sudden shift in sentiment severely weakened the United States dollar and simultaneously enhanced the appeal of scarce digital assets.

Bitcoin now shares a strong 75 per cent correlation with gold. This tight relationship confirms that sophisticated investors increasingly treat the leading cryptocurrency as a premier inflation hedge and a reliable store of value during periods of fiat currency debasement. We are witnessing the maturation of Bitcoin from a speculative fringe asset into a recognised macroeconomic safe haven tool.

Derivatives markets and technical breakouts significantly amplified this fundamental macroeconomic shift. Bitcoin open interest climbed 11.1 per cent within a single day as leveraged traders positioned themselves for further upside. This assertive positioning triggered a substantial short squeeze, liquidating US$84.81 million worth of positions. Short sellers absorbed the vast majority of these painful losses as the price violently reversed their bearish bets.

The underlying spot market validated this derivative action with a staggering 138.51 per cent surge in trading volume. This immense buying pressure allowed the asset to break decisively above the critical US$63,000 resistance level. Sustaining this newly established support zone between US$63,000 and US$63,500 remains absolutely vital for maintaining the current bullish structure. A failure to hold this floor would invalidate the breakout and invite renewed selling pressure.

Ethereum mirrors this broader strength, gaining 1.68 per cent to trade at US$1,905.86. While the second-largest digital asset benefits from positive market momentum, its ongoing performance is truly driven by a major corporate accumulation narrative. Bitmine Immersion Technologies recently acquired an additional 9,926 tokens last week. This strategic acquisition brings their total treasury to a staggering 5.815 million tokens, representing approximately 4.8 per cent of the entire circulating supply.

Chairman Tom Lee directly connected this relentless buying spree to the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio finally breaking a multi-year downtrend. He specifically highlighted growing corporate demand driven by asset-tokenisation initiatives and advanced artificial intelligence agent applications. This continuous corporate buying creates a significant demand sink, fundamentally validating the network’s long-term utility thesis.

On-chain metrics further reinforce this optimistic corporate narrative for Ethereum. A prominent whale recently transferred 32,400 tokens worth roughly US$61.46 million directly into a staking contract. This considerable move signals deep long-term conviction and immediately removes sell-side pressure from the open market. Despite this strong underlying activity, the relative strength index currently sits at a moderate 54.96.

This neutral momentum indicator suggests the asset will likely experience a steady grind higher rather than a violent vertical spike. Buyers must successfully defend the immediate support zone between US$1,890 and US$1,900 to maintain the prevailing uptrend. A successful defence will likely prompt a test of the next major liquidity cluster near US$1,925. Conversely, a drop below US$1,870 risks a swift decline toward the 200-day moving average near US$1,887.

The broader digital asset ecosystem also benefits immensely from this renewed corporate interest and favourable regulatory clarity. The Layer 1 category recently emerged as the top trending narrative by gaining 2.11 per cent and dominating social discussions. This specific sector outperformance highlights a clear rotation into high-beta ecosystem tokens that power foundational blockchain infrastructure.

Furthermore, the enduring positive impact of the March 2026 regulatory framework established by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission continues to provide massive tailwinds. This crucial regulatory clarity officially classified major assets as digital commodities and significantly reduced the lingering regulatory overhang for prominent networks. Clearer regulatory pathways naturally attract larger pools of traditional capital that previously avoided the sector due to compliance uncertainties.

Despite these overwhelmingly positive technical and fundamental developments, underlying market sentiment remains surprisingly cautious. The CMC Fear and Greed Index currently registers a low reading of 39, which firmly places the market in a state of fear. This cautious sentiment aligns with recent spot exchange-traded fund outflows observed by market participants over the past week.

Investors must closely monitor the upcoming United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flow data on August 18 to determine if corporate selling pressure finally abates. Furthermore, the release of the Federal Reserve July meeting minutes on August 19 will provide essential policy clues that could drastically alter the existing macroeconomic landscape. These upcoming catalysts will dictate whether the current rally extends or merely represents a temporary consolidation phase.

My assessment concludes that the digital asset market currently enjoys a cautiously optimistic momentum driven by tangible corporate activity. The combination of structured buying, supportive macroeconomic relief, and clear technical breakouts paints a highly constructive picture for the immediate future. Bitcoin needs to successfully test the US$65,000 mark, while Ethereum must capture the US$1,925 liquidity cluster.

In my opinion, the total market capitalisation must also push past the US$2.23 trillion resistance level, representing the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci extension. If these major digital assets fail to hold their current pivot points, the market will inevitably retest lower support zones and resume its broader multi-month consolidation phase. Only sustained volume and unwavering corporate commitment will validate this optimistic structural shift.

 

Source: https://e27.co/despite-the-rally-the-cmc-fear-and-greed-index-remains-at-39-indicating-underlying-market-caution-20260818/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Bitcoin holds US$64,341 while miners bleed US$1.26B: What is really happening?

Bitcoin holds US$64,341 while miners bleed US$1.26B: What is really happening?

Bitcoin trades at US$64,341 after reaching a daily high of US$64,916 and establishing a daily low of US$64,114. The digital asset currently sits 3.8 per cent below its 30-day high of US$66,900. Traders observe a mixed moving average posture across multiple time frames. I believe the market currently lacks strong conviction, leaving participants waiting for a clear catalyst to break this tight consolidation phase. The current price remains strictly below the 20-day moving average but comfortably above the 50-day moving average, while sitting below the 200-day moving average.

This specific technical setup indicates absolutely no confirmed short-term trend direction at the current price level. The relative strength index rests precisely at 51. This neutral reading confirms the asset successfully avoids both overbought and oversold conditions. The trading volume ratio stands at 0.87. Traders identify immediate resistance at US$66,900, which sits exactly 3.9 per cent above the current spot price. Investors place strong structural support at US$62,600.

Macroeconomic factors heavily influence current price action and dictate broader market sentiment. The digital asset tracks gold most closely among traditional macroeconomic assets right now. The correlation between the two assets is exactly 0.58 over the recent observation window and has remained at that exact value over the last 30 days. Bitcoin prices itself independently of equities at this moment.

The asset shows borderline independence from traditional stock markets and ignores broader equity trends. Traders eagerly anticipate the upcoming nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate release, scheduled for today at exactly 12:30 UTC. The market expects no clear macro transmission from recent labour data to affect digital assets directly, despite the release’s high-profile nature.

Geopolitical events also fill the broader news cycle and capture investor attention. Officials concluded the United States and Iran’s diplomatic talks on Tuesday. The direct crypto impact from these diplomatic talks remains completely unclear to analysts. My analysis suggests that traditional macroeconomic indicators currently fail to drive digital asset momentum and compel participants to look inward to sector-specific metrics for guidance.

Institutional participation has sent mixed signals in exchange-traded fund flows over the past week. United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recently recorded massive inflows, establishing a streak. Daily net flows exhibit a distinct, volatile pattern over the past five trading days.

Funds experienced a massive US$265.4M outflow on August 2. Buyers completely reversed the trend on August 3 with a US$170.1M inflow. August 4 saw a strong US$211.5M inflow enter the market. August 5 brought in exactly US$244.4M. The positive momentum slowed significantly on August 6 with a US$9.3M inflow. The one-day change represents a tiny 0.01 per cent increase in total assets under management. The five-day total inflows reach US$369.9M, adding 0.47 per cent to total assets under management.

Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF led the five-day inflows with exactly US$31.4M. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust experienced the largest outflow and lost exactly US$45.1M over the same five-day period. The four-day inflow streak decelerates sharply right now. Long-term holders actively distribute their assets while the spot market absorbs these new inflows. This aggressive holder distribution directly diverges from the positive net flow data, creating underlying selling pressure.

Derivatives markets display balanced positioning across major exchanges. Traders increased open interest by exactly 1.6 per cent over the last seven days. The funding rate remains neutral, while the broader funding trend declines steadily. The futures cumulative volume delta exceeded the spot cumulative volume delta by a noticeable margin. This metric confirms flat positioning across the broader derivatives market.

Liquidation walls sit very lightly on both sides of the current price action. The upper liquidation wall rests at US$65,200, and the lower liquidation wall sits at US$62,100. These distance calculations use the Binance four-hour perpetual reference contract. Spot demand from the United States shows slight weakness today. The Coinbase premium sits at negative 0.088 per cent. This flat trend indicates soft United States spot demand with absolutely no strong buying or selling pressure from domestic investors.

The current premium ranks above exactly 47 per cent of observations over the last 30 days. I view this soft domestic demand as a clear warning sign that institutional buyers currently lack the aggressive appetite required to push the asset past immediate resistance levels.

Capital structure metrics reveal underlying stress in the broader corporate ecosystem. STRC trades at exactly US$94.06 and sits 5.9 per cent below par value. Analysts place this specific asset in a strict watch zone. The price shows a moderate discount to par while successfully avoiding a hard stress signal.

MicroStrategy and Bitcoin’s alignment has remained mixed over the last five days. This alignment completely decouples reflexive risk for the moment. The mining sector faces severe structural stress, driving near-term bearish pressure on the overall price. Major public miners report steep losses amid a sector-wide revenue decline.

MARA Holdings reported a massive US$1.26B net loss in quarter one of the 2026 fiscal year. The company generated only US$174.6M in revenue. The trailing 12-month profit margin sits at negative 234.83 per cent. Deep losses and negative US$531M in levered free cash flow prove the core mining business burns cash faster than the company can replace it. CleanSpark posted a US$239.8M net loss and lost US$0.89 per basic share. The company also suffered steep revenue declines.

Simultaneous weakness across major public miners points directly to structural stress in mining economics following the recent halving event. Both MARA and CleanSpark now redirect resources toward artificial intelligence compute infrastructure. This strategic pivot reduces the urgency to expand mining capacity. The economics of pure digital-asset mining no longer justify aggressive reinvestment in these massive public companies.

This shift signals a bearish indicator for near-term hash rate growth and increases selling pressure on miners across the network. I consider this pivot toward artificial intelligence as a glaring red flag for the fundamental security budget. We will have our days. Maybe when tech stocks aren’t that “hot.”

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-holds-us64341-while-miners-bleed-us1-26b-what-is-really-happening-20260807/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j

Bitcoin’s 73% correlation with gold forces investors to rethink crypto

Bitcoin’s 73% correlation with gold forces investors to rethink crypto

Global financial markets closed mixed heading into August 6, 2026, as a historic blue-chip rally collided with a cooldown in technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 0.49 per cent to 54,349.92 and marked a third straight record close on solid corporate earnings. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.83 per cent to 26,359.67 as warnings from newly listed SpaceX and declines in semiconductor names snapped a four-day winning streak.

The benchmark S&P 500 edged down 0.17 per cent to 7,723.19 as traders pocketed profits. This divergence highlights a profound shift in investor appetite as capital rotates away from growth stocks toward stable value equities. Market participants clearly recognise the need to balance their portfolios during times of sector-specific volatility.

That profit-taking tone tells us a lot about the current mood on Wall Street. Investors clearly want to stay invested, but they also want to lock in gains. The result is a trading tape where cyclicals carry the baton while technology rests. The S&P 500 pullback looks gentle because it follows a strong run and reads as healthy digestion. The Dow drew strength from corporate profitability, and this environment explains why traders seek alternative stores of value.

When traditional growth sectors stall, market participants look for uncorrelated assets to protect their portfolios. This rotation dynamic pushes capital into the digital asset space, where specific tokens exhibit strong inflation-hedging characteristics. The capital rotation is a highly rational response to shifting macroeconomic conditions across the broader financial landscape.

Bitcoin consolidated gains, adding 0.89 per cent to US$64,547.12. The gain slightly outpaced the 0.79 per cent rise in total crypto market value, so the token showed independent strength. The most fascinating metric is the 73 per cent correlation between the leading cryptocurrency and gold. This high correlation indicates that institutional buyers now view the digital asset primarily as a macro-driven inflation hedge. The direct source of this buying pressure sits in the exchange-traded fund complex.

United States spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted US$211.49 million in net inflows on August 4, following US$170.1 million in inflows on August 3. BlackRock captured US$170.35 million of the August 4 total through its IBIT product. These figures mark a clear recovery from outflows in late July and show that large institutions have returned to absorb selling pressure. I consider this specific inflow data as the most critical fundamental indicator right now.

The leading cryptocurrency is trading above its 7-day simple moving average at US$63,699.82 and its 30-day simple moving average at US$64,118.46. The asset also remains above the 200-week simple moving average near US$63,777. This specific long-term average serves as a crucial structural floor, as it has historically marked deep accumulation phases. The 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$64,201.36 now serves as the immediate line in the sand for short-term traders.

Buyers must defend this specific retracement level to maintain the current upward trajectory. The market structure remains incredibly constructive as long as the price respects these foundational moving averages. This technical setup is a coiled spring waiting for a fundamental spark to release stored energy and push valuations higher.

The immediate direction hinges on a concrete regulatory event in Washington. The United States Senate plans to vote on the CLARITY Act before its August recess. A positive legislative outcome would give institutions the regulatory framework they desire and likely accelerate the current inflow momentum. As long as the price holds above the US$64,200 support level, the path of least resistance points towards a retest of the US$66,910 swing high.

A break below US$63,562, which represents the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci level, would open the door to a deeper correction toward US$62,000. The trigger for the next major move relies heavily on this upcoming Senate vote. My bias here leans bullish because the inflow data and the technical floor both point higher, but true conviction awaits a clear legislative signal. Sustained daily ETF inflows above US$100 million would further confirm a durable recovery in institutional demand.

Ethereum tells an even stronger fundamental story, adding 2.23 per cent to US$1,908.26 and outpacing both the leading cryptocurrency and the broader market. The network staking ratio reached a record 34.4 per cent on August 4, locking approximately 40 million tokens away from public exchanges. Removing that much supply from the open market creates a massive structural tailwind for price appreciation.

Large investors are clearly buying the dip, as wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 tokens accumulated a net 130,000 tokens last week. This whale accumulation signals deep confidence in the underlying network economics. The combination of reduced liquid supply and aggressive activity by large buyers creates a highly supportive fundamental backdrop that sets this rally apart from previous speculative spikes. I find these on-chain metrics incredibly compelling because they reflect actual network usage rather than fleeting retail momentum.

The price action confirms this bullish on-chain intent, as the asset broke above its 30-day simple moving average at US$1,881.14 amid a 23.28 per cent surge in trading volume. Volume of that magnitude separates a genuine breakout from a mere drift higher. Narrative tailwinds also help drive this outperformance. The broader Layer 1 category posted a 0.86 per cent gain in market value as capital rotated heavily into the sector.

BlackRock also filed to implement a 1-for-3 reverse share split for its iShares Ethereum Trust ETF effective October 6. This structural change should tighten trading spreads and make the product more accessible to a wider range of traditional investors. The convergence of strong technical momentum, positive sector sentiment, and impending institutional product enhancements creates a highly favourable environment for continued upside.

Every asset class currently waits for its own specific catalyst, and this compression phase rewards patient observers who watch the legislative calendar and daily flow data. Watch the market like a hawk. Your opportunity may be around the corner.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoins-73-correlation-with-gold-forces-investors-to-rethink-crypto-20260806/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j