Tag Archives: us

Why a strong jobs report hit Bitcoin and Ethereum harder than the stock market

Why a strong jobs report hit Bitcoin and Ethereum harder than the stock market

The cryptocurrency sector currently faces macroeconomic headwinds that dictate valuation changes across all major digital tokens. Bitcoin recently declined by 1.34 per cent to US$79,113.15 in a single 24-hour period. Ethereum followed a similar trajectory, dropping 1.17 per cent to trade at US$2,487.12. This synchronised pullback is clear evidence that digital assets no longer operate in an isolated ecosystem. Instead, they function as highly sensitive instruments that react directly to traditional economic indicators and central bank policies.

Market participants must understand these deep correlations to navigate the current environment successfully. Bitcoin currently demonstrates a 93 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 over the past week. This extremely high correlation perfectly illustrates my view that top-tier cryptocurrencies now function as macro assets that closely track shifts in liquidity and interest rate expectations.

A surprisingly strong United States employment report triggered this latest wave of selling pressure. The economy added 162,000 jobs in August, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. This robust labour market information immediately altered market expectations regarding monetary policy. Traders now assign an implied probability of around 60 per cent to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Rising Treasury yields and a strengthening US Dollar naturally put pressure on risk assets across the board. Strong economic data directly contradicts participants’ hopes for a dovish pivot by the central bank.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum react identically to these shifting global liquidity expectations. The second-largest cryptocurrency mirrors this broader beta move, dropping in tandem with the leading digital coin. Buyers and sellers currently maintain a delicate equilibrium as institutional players digest the robust employment numbers. Market participants must recognise that traditional financial metrics currently dictate the pace of changes in digital asset valuations.

This macro-driven selling pressure quickly exposed fragile conditions within the derivatives sector. Bitcoin recently attempted to reclaim the crucial US$80,000 psychological resistance threshold but stalled near US$79,700. This technical rejection sparked a severe cascade of leveraged long liquidations. Total crypto derivatives liquidations hit US$208 million within a single 24-hour window. Overextended long positions accounted for US$119 million of this total selling volume. I always warn participants about the dangers of excessive leverage during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.

High leverage consistently amplifies routine pullbacks into violent localized crashes. This recent liquidation event clearly highlights the risks of overextending bullish positions in the face of strong economic data. Fragile derivatives conditions inevitably punish speculators who ignore the underlying macroeconomic reality. Overextended speculators suffered significant capital losses when the leading digital coin failed to sustain upward momentum above key psychological thresholds.

Bitcoin now faces several critical technical thresholds that will dictate its short-term trajectory. The asset must defend the immediate Fibonacci support at US$79,390, which marks the 61.8 per cent retracement level. A failure to hold this specific line invites a swift test of the recent swing low near US$78,685. The broader sector currently expects a consolidation range of US$78,000 to US$80,500. A definitive break below the US$78,000 support zone risks a deeper drop toward US$77,200 or potentially the US$77,200 to US$77,600 range.

Conversely, buyers who successfully reclaim the US$80,500 threshold could push the valuation toward a new target of US$82,000. Speculators must watch these boundaries closely to gauge underlying momentum and adjust their strategies accordingly. Participants should always respect these major technical barriers and avoid aggressive positioning until clear directional signals emerge from the daily charts.

Ethereum closely mirrors this broader beta move and reacts in the same way to the shifting global liquidity landscape. They currently consolidate within a tight technical range of US$2,450 to US$2,530. The daily relative strength index sits at 63.53, cooling off noticeably from previous overbought conditions. Daily trading volume also fell by 35 per cent, indicating a distinct slowdown in buying intensity across the network. I interpret these metrics as a sign that buyers and sellers currently maintain a delicate equilibrium near the US$2,500 threshold.

The network simply needs time to digest the strong August rally before committing to a definitive directional move. This consolidation phase allows the broader ecosystem to build a stronger foundation for future valuation appreciation. Institutional players utilise these quiet periods to accumulate positions without significantly impacting the daily order books.

Institutional demand provides a crucial foundation for Ethereum despite the current technical cooldown. United States spot ether exchange-traded funds attracted US$218.4 million in net inflows last week. This steady capital injection proves that large-scale players still accumulate the asset during valuation dips. Ethereum’s immediate path depends heavily on the US$2,475 support level and the US$2,550 resistance level.

A break below US$2,475 risks a significant drop toward the next key Fibonacci support at US$2,292 or potentially down to US$2,400. A sustained break above US$2,530 would signal returning strength and trigger the next upward leg. Participants must monitor these specific thresholds to anticipate the next major valuation movement and position their portfolios effectively. Strict adherence to these technical boundaries allows speculators to manage risk efficiently during periods of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.

Underlying institutional strength also supports the broader Bitcoin ecosystem and prevents a total collapse in sentiment. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in a massive US$987 million last week. This remarkable inflow volume demonstrates that traditional finance participants continue to allocate capital to digital tokens despite short-term volatility. The entire crypto ecosystem now eagerly awaits the August Consumer Price Index report arriving on September 11.

This crucial inflation information will directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and determine the next major sector trend. A hotter inflation print will cement fears of rate hikes and further pressure valuations. A cooler reading might relieve the current macro pressure and allow risk assets to rebound strongly. Observers must prepare for both scenarios before the official information release.

Digital tokens trade almost entirely on global liquidity conditions, interest rate trajectories, and institutional risk appetite. Patience and strict adherence to technical thresholds will consistently reward disciplined speculators in this highly sensitive macro environment. The ongoing stalemate between steady exchange-traded fund inflows and looming central bank uncertainty defines this moment. Traders must strictly manage their risk and avoid aggressive leverage until the macroeconomic picture is fully clear.

Market observers must recognise that traditional financial markets currently dictate the pace of changes in digital asset valuations. Investors who ignore this reality will inevitably suffer unnecessary portfolio drawdowns during periods of intense macroeconomic volatility. The September 11 inflation data will decide whether the market breaks down toward lower support zones or resumes its broader upward trajectory.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-a-strong-jobs-report-hit-bitcoin-and-ethereum-harder-than-the-stock-market-20260908/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

From US$79,300 to US$82,400: Mapping the narrow corridor that decides Bitcoin’s September

From US$79,300 to US$82,400: Mapping the narrow corridor that decides Bitcoin’s September

I see an intricate interplay of global economic forces and internal trading mechanics. Bitcoin recently advanced 0.56 per cent to reach US$80,347.18 over a single day. This specific valuation increase closely tracks the broader sector’s expansion of 0.84 per cent. Total capitalisation across the entire speculative token landscape climbed 0.61 per cent to hit US$2.72T.

Investors currently treat these virtual commodities as highly sensitive economic indicators rather than isolated betting vehicles. Traditional financial benchmarks heavily dictate daily fluctuations. The primary engine propelling this upward momentum stems directly from widespread equity beta.

Participants actively price in persistent geopolitical friction and shifting central bank policies. Heightened tensions between the United States and Iran continue pushing global energy costs higher. Simultaneously, a tight Federal Reserve stance, following robust employment figures, forces Wall Street to recalibrate risk models. These exact elements heavily impact all speculative instruments globally.

Bitcoin currently exhibits a striking 92 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 index. This high statistical overlap clearly indicates a rate-sensitive and broad economic movement. The digital token essentially trades as a traditional risk instrument right now. Short-term valuation direction relies heavily on Wall Street sentiment and shifting liquidity expectations.

Institutional participants provide a massive underlying floor for current valuations. Exchange-traded funds focusing on digital commodities raked in nearly US$1B in net inflows just last week. This massive influx of traditional capital provides undeniable structural support for current pricing tiers.

Investors must now watch the upcoming United States Consumer Price Index report scheduled for September 11. This inflation data release will heavily influence central bank rate expectations and dictate future volatility. Participants eagerly await this data point to confirm whether the current bullish momentum has long-term staying power or is merely a temporary reflexive bounce. Gold also shares a 74 per cent correlation with the virtual coin, showing that safe-haven narratives occasionally blend with risk-on behaviour during uncertain times. Internal trading mechanics significantly amplified the initial broad-based economic upturn.

Liquidations for the top digital asset surged an astonishing 151 per cent to reach US$20.14M within a single day. This spike in forced selling primarily originated from bearish positions. Such an increase in forced closures creates intense reflexive buying pressure. Speculators who bet against the sector must quickly buy the underlying instrument to cover their losing wagers. This mandatory buying activity significantly amplifies the initial upward move and creates a cascading effect across order books.

The underlying derivatives structure presented perfect conditions for a classic squeeze. The modest broad economic rise simply triggered a massive cascade of buy orders from heavily leveraged entities. My analysis shows that the internal plumbing of the futures ecosystem often dictates daily volatility far more than fundamental news. Speculators utilising high leverage inject immense fuel into the rally, but they simultaneously increase the risk of sharp corrections. Total open interest recently climbed by 4.8 per cent, while the average funding rate jumped by 44 per cent in a single day. These metrics indicate aggressive positioning.

Market makers observe these shifting derivatives metrics to gauge underlying retail enthusiasm and institutional hedging activity. Capital is actively rotating out of the largest digital token and flowing into high-momentum alternative projects. The Altcoin Season Index jumped 56 per cent on a weekly basis to reach a reading of 42. This metric signals that speculators aggressively chase momentum in specific niche narratives.

Privacy tokens and meme coins currently lead this speculative charge. Zcash recently surged 21 per cent to reach US$1,237. This project benefits greatly from a Grayscale exchange-traded fund tailwind and a simultaneous short squeeze. The Social Money category also experienced a massive rocket upward, climbing 63 per cent in a short period.

Dominance of the premier cryptocurrency recently dipped to 59.11 per cent as participants seek outsized returns in smaller ventures. Speculators are actively betting on these sectors while the largest digital asset consolidates its recent gains. Sustained strength in the seasonal index above 50 would definitively confirm a broader alternative token season. Entities must closely watch for a sharp reversal in funding rates from positive to negative. Such a sudden shift would likely signal a sentiment peak and prompt widespread profit-taking.

A benign legal backdrop continues to support institutional confidence in these speculative arenas. Clear commodity classifications established by federal regulators in March 2026 provide a stable framework for large capital allocators. This clarity removes uncertainty and encourages traditional institutions to increase exposure to virtual assets.

The immediate pricing path heavily hinges on specific technical thresholds and upcoming events. The premier cryptocurrency must successfully hold the critical support zone between US$79,300 and US$79,900. This band encompasses the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement threshold and the seven-day moving average. Immediate resistance currently sits between US$81,000 and US$82,400. Another barrier rests precisely at US$81,259. Traders view this specific price point as a major psychological hurdle that requires substantial buying volume to overcome.

If the crucial support tier holds steady through the September 11 inflation release, a retest of the upper resistance band represents the most likely scenario. A decisive break above US$81,000 could easily signal fresh momentum toward the US$82,400 swing high. Unexpected inflation data could easily break current support structures. This negative surprise would likely trigger a rapid drop toward US$78,000. The broader sector rally could extend toward US$83,000 if the primary digital asset holds above US$79,000. Alternative projects will likely continue to outperform during this extension.

A break below the crucial US$76,200 support level may trigger a broader pullback toward the US$72,000-US$74,000 range. This downside scenario becomes highly probable if the Federal Reserve signals a strict stance during its September 15 and 16 meetings. The upcoming August inflation data and the subsequent central bank gathering are critical catalysts that will strongly influence the dollar and overall risk appetite. The current trend remains cautiously bullish, but the sector remains highly vulnerable to strict surprises. Participants constantly question whether virtual commodities will decouple from traditional equities if the upcoming inflation report reignites aggressive rate-hike fears.

My assessment suggests current speculative momentum relies entirely on economic stability and continuous institutional inflows. Large capital allocators demand clear macroeconomic signals before committing fresh capital to this highly volatile asset class. The trajectory depends on whether the largest digital asset can maintain structural integrity above key thresholds as it navigates a highly uncertain global landscape.

Source:
 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin slipped below US$80,000, so why are traders still betting on US$82,000?

Bitcoin slipped below US$80,000, so why are traders still betting on US$82,000?

Bitcoin trades at US$77,260.09 today, with a 24-hour trading volume of US$26,479,119,535. The premier digital asset gained 0.22 per cent over the last day. The asset briefly climbed above US$80,000 before sellers dragged the valuation back to US$76,000. Kalshi participants currently favour an US$82,000 target for September.

Market participants betting on this outcome expect the asset to rise by at least seven per cent from its current US$76,000 level. This collective mood suggests speculators view the short-term pullback as a minor hurdle rather than a trend reversal. Buyers halted the August rise and pushed the token into a weaker trading range.

My perspective aligns with these speculators because market psychology often treats brief corrections as healthy consolidation phases before the next major breakout. Smart investors use these minor dips to accumulate more assets at discounted prices. The sheer size of the daily trading volume proves that immense capital continues flowing into the ecosystem.

Buyers step in aggressively whenever the valuation dips below key psychological thresholds. This underlying strength provides a solid foundation for future upward momentum and sustained investor confidence across all global exchanges. Global institutions allocate substantial portfolios to this sector to hedge against traditional currency devaluation and to secure long-term wealth preservation.

August delivered a phenomenal rally for the digital asset. Buyers pushed the valuation up about 25 per cent, from roughly US$62,500 to over US$78,000. The token peaked near US$81,138 during that specific period. The current US$82,000 Kalshi forecast sits slightly above that recent high. Buyers repeatedly tested the US$80,000 resistance level over the past few days.

These persistent attempts prove that underlying demand remains robust despite the immediate drop in valuation. Analysts see a high probability that the asset will touch US$82,000 this month. Market observers focus heavily on whether buying sentiment will hold near the resistance line.

Repeated tests at the resistance level eventually weaken that barrier. Sellers exhaust their supply during these tests, and buyers eventually absorb all available sell orders. Historical patterns support this optimistic outlook. The asset maintained a consistent record of September gains over the past four years. Seasonal strength often drives investor confidence and attracts fresh capital into markets. Traders remember these historical trends and position their portfolios accordingly.

This collective anticipation creates a self-fulfilling prophecy that drives valuations higher. Retail participants join the rally when they see large institutional funds accumulating positions during these seasonal windows, and they mimic those trading behaviours to capture similar financial rewards.

The broader digital asset market faces distinct challenges even as Bitcoin shows relative strength. Ethereum dropped 0.93 per cent to US$2,389.35 over the last 24 hours. The second-largest digital asset underperformed Bitcoin’s slightly positive price action. A massive cascade of leveraged long liquidations was the primary driver of this underperformance. Exchanges wiped out approximately US$96 million in Ethereum long positions.

The broader crypto market saw exchanges liquidate over US$367 million in total positions during the same time. Long positions accounted for the vast majority of these forced closures. This derivatives squeeze created immense forced selling pressure. Algorithms automatically sold assets to meet margin calls, pushing the valuation below the critical US$2,400 support level. High leverage always fuels rapid declines. The market effectively cleared overextended bullish bets and generated a sharp, high-volume downward move.

These liquidation cascades are necessary market cleanings. They remove fragile leverage and build a much stronger foundation for future valuation appreciation. Healthy markets require periodic flushes to wipe out greedy speculators and reward patient long-term holders. Trading platforms constantly monitor these margin requirements and adjust their internal risk parameters to prevent systemic failures during extreme volatility spikes.

Broader macroeconomic pressures also weigh heavily on digital assets. Ethereum shares a strong 67.8 per cent correlation with the S&P 500. This high correlation indicates that traditional stock market movements heavily influence digital asset valuations. A broad risk-off shift swept through global financial markets.

Geopolitical tensions pushed Brent crude oil prices above US$95. Higher oil prices ignite inflation fears and drive Treasury yields higher. Investors typically sell risk assets when inflation fears rise and bond yields offer better returns. Spot selling pressure increased alongside these macro headwinds. A major market participant moved 70,739 Ethereum tokens worth roughly US$174 million to exchanges over two days.

Large holders usually signal an intent to sell when they transfer assets to exchanges. Institutional exchange-traded fund inflows also slowed significantly during this period. I interpret these whale movements as strategic portfolio rebalancing rather than a complete loss of faith in the asset.

Smart money often takes profits after strong rallies and waits for better entry points. These large players have the capital to move markets and always seek optimal liquidity conditions to execute large trades. Professional fund managers analyse these on-chain metrics daily to predict future supply shocks, and they adjust their exposure levels based on precise wallet movements.

Market participants now watch critical support levels to gauge the future direction of valuations. The immediate technical structure looks bearish after sellers broke US$2,400. The next major support cluster sits between US$2,350 and US$2,320. Liquidation heatmaps show dense liquidity resting in this specific zone.

Buyers must defend this area to prevent a deeper correction. A successful defence could allow the asset to consolidate and range between US$2,320 and US$2,440. A failure to hold this zone opens the door for a drop toward US$2,200. The Federal Reserve’s policy decision on September 16 is the most important near-term catalyst. Traders currently price in a 68 per cent chance of a rate hike. A hawkish central bank decision could easily extend the current downturn.

A dovish surprise might catalyse a massive relief rally across risk assets. I expect extreme volatility surrounding the central bank announcement. Investors should watch the valuation reaction at the US$2,320 level and monitor exchange-traded fund flow data closely.

These metrics will reveal true institutional sentiment and dictate the next major market trend for the remainder of the year. Economic analysts constantly track these interest rate probabilities and model various economic scenarios to prepare clients for potential monetary policy shifts.

Evaluating both assets together reveals a complex market environment. Bitcoin leads the charge with resilient price action while Ethereum battles intense derivative liquidations and macro headwinds. Traders must navigate these diverging narratives carefully. I advise market participants to focus on underlying fundamentals rather than short-term valuation fluctuations.

The digital asset space always experiences violent swings before establishing long-term trends. Patient observers will capitalise on these temporary dislocations and build substantial wealth over time.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-slipped-below-us80000-so-why-are-traders-still-betting-on-us82000-20260903/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j