October 4th, 2022

ADA/BTC prediction: Will Vasil hardfork turn around Cardano’s downward trend?

ADA/BTC prediction: Will Vasil hardfork turn around Cardano’s downward trend?

Bitcoin (BTC), the first cryptocurrency and the most valuable coin, is losing steam in 2022 amid a wider shift in market sentiment. Meanwhile, Cardano’s (ADA) long-awaited Vasil hard fork failed to trigger bullishness.

What does it mean for the ADA/BTC forecast? Here we take a look at the Cardano (ADA) to Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency pair and factors shaping the ADA/BTC exchange rate.

What is ADA/BTC?

ADA/BTC represents the exchange rate between ADA, the native cryptocurrency of the Cardano blockchain, and BTC, the native coin on the Bitcoin Network.

Maxim Shilo, digital assets analyst at CoinLoan, explained that to determine the ADA/BTC rate, the coins’ prices are calculated separately, then added together, noting:

“If BTC rises 4.5%, and ADA rises 2.5% at the same time, then ADA/BTC price is down 2% respectively…There might be some differences, which are for market makers to spread on.”

Bitcoin was created in 2009 as a digital alternative to cash. Since its launch, the cryptocurrency has started to act as a store of value. It’s been compared to gold as a hedge against inflation.

Bitcoin’s key feature is mining. This is done through a blockchain that connects all public BTC transactions together. The blockchain uses a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism through which miners compete to solve mathematical equations and confirm the legitimacy of transactions. Miners are rewarded in BTC.

BTC tokens also undergo halving events roughly every four years. This is when the number of the BTC coins in circulation is reduced by half, making the token scarcer and raising its price.

Cardano was launched in 2017 as a third-generation crypto platform that uses the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. The blockchain prides itself in being the first ever crypto platform “to be founded on peer-reviewed research and developed through evidence-based methods”.

Cardano’s key focus is on being sustainable. In September 2021 the platform introduced smart contract capability, which means that the blockchain can now also support the creation of decentralised apps (dApps), new tokens, decentralised finance (DeFi) games, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and more – one of the key factors that makes it stand out compared to BTC.

The platform was developed in “eras”, each named after a prominent historical figure in the fields of literature and computer science, such as Byron, Shelley, Goguen, Basho and Voltaire.

As of 30 September, the blockchain’s era is Basho, which introduced more scaling and optimisation to Cardano. Voltaire will be the last era in the blockchain’s development, which will bring governance to the system.

ADA/BTC historical rate chart

The ADA/BTC exchange rate surged 1,373.4% in the four months after the launch of the ADA token, trading at 0.00007103BTC in January 2018. At the same time the ADA price in USD jumped more than 4,800% to $1.0797. This was when ADA reached its all-time high against BTC.

Between 2018 and 2020 the exchange rate moved sideways, peaking at 0.00001811BTC and 0.00001495BTC in April 2019 and July 2020, respectively. In 2021, ADA regained its momentum against bitcoin.

Between January and September 2021, the ADA/USD rate surged over 800%, with ADA enjoying the peak of 0.00006008BTC. The jump was mostly driven by bullish sentiment for Cardano, with ADA trading at a record high of $2.9682 in September 2021.

But, wider sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets shifted. ADA/USD swinged lower, losing over 20% year-to-date. Separately, ADA and BTC have lost 68% and 58% of their value in 2022, respectively (as of 30 September).

Is the Vasil fork driving ADA/BTC?

Cardano’s long-awaited Vasil mainnet upgrade, which aims to improve the blockchain’s scalability and increase the network’s capacity, was launched on 22 September after several delays. The Cardano Foundation said on Twitter.

Full Vasil capability became available on 27 September. In addition to that, the Cardano blockchain activated the Plutus V2 cost model, which delivered lower transaction costs for smart contracts.

This update was expected to boost ADA’s value, but failed to do so. According to Anndy Lian, chief digital advisor at the Mongolian Productivity Organisation and author of NFT: From Zero to Hero, “this is mainly due to the financial uncertainty globally.”

“Marco risks led by a very hawkish US Fed have also weighed down ADA’s price movement after Vasil’s launch,” he told Capital.com.

The ADA/BTC exchange rate dropped by 5.5 % between 22 and 29 September, during the hype in the run-up to the fork’s launch.

Shilo agreed that this phenomenon was linked to wider macro-economic factors stemming from a troubled global economy and a wider bear market. “Macro doesn’t really care about the updates or future promises,” he said.

Shilo added that Cardano was not the only token affected by macroeconomics on the brink of a big upgrade, using Ethereum’s Merge as an example.

Lian noted that although ADA failed to jump after the Vasil fork, their voting power has increased by 53%, noting:

“This means that more ADA was being used across proposals in Project Catalyst with 11% of all the circulating ADA being used in Catalyst Fund9, which is a community-driven initiative that allows users to vote and determines the future direction of the ecosystem.”

According to Lian “more utility and support from the community means better potential for the development of the token”.

In other news, the Cardano Foundation is preparing for an events season, which will kick off in October 2022. The Foundation is due to participate in a number of key crypto events that could affect an ADA/BTC forecast.

In November, Cardano will hold the Cardano Summit 2022 in Switzerland, which will focus on presentations and updates from developers of Cardano’s decentralised applications (dApps).

ADA/BTC forecast for 2022 and beyond

Based on the analysis of ADA’s past price performance, as of 30 September, the algorithm-based forecasting service WalletInvestor predicted that ADA/USD could fall to $0.0423 in 2023. The platform did not provide a price prediction for 2027.

In terms of its bitcoin prediction, the site saw BTC/USD trade at $30,274.06 in 2023 and reach $74,480.14 by 2027.

While WalletInvestor did not provide a direct Cardano/Bitcoin forecast, data suggested that the exchange rate could be 0.000000567BTC in 2023.

DigitalCoinPrice predicted that ADA/USD could rise to $0.46 by the end of 2022, $0.99 in 2023 and $1.76 in 2025. Its long-term prediction saw the coin reaching $6.04 in 2030.

The site also gave an upbeat BTC/USD forecast, expecting the coin to average at $20,403 in 2022, $44,579 in 2023, $79,430 in 2025 and surpass $273,000 in 2030.

DigitalCoinPrice’s ADA/BTC forecast for 2022 expected the pair to reach 0.00002255BTC. In 2023, the ADA/BTC prediction saw the exchange rate falling to 0.00002221BTC. The site’s ADA/BTC forecast for 2025 stood at 0.00002216BTC. Its long-term ADA/BTC forecast for 2030 was 0.00002212BTC.

Shilo stressed that bitcoin has relative strength to altcoins and added that in his opinion the ADA/BTC forecast is pointing downwards:

“It’s unlikely that [ADA] will outperform BTC. I can’t see it happening in the near term. Only very few selected coins have done so in the long term, and historically the chances are very slim. Given that the price is trading in the range and is in no man’s land against BTC, it’s clearly pointing toward a downward trend.”

Note that analysts’ and algorithm-based forecasts can be wrong and shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence before trading, and never trade money you cannot afford to lose.

Source: https://capital.com/ada-btc-prediction-cardano-bitcoin-vasil-hardfork

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j

September 14th, 2022

What Are The Key Events In September To Look Out For? CPI, The Merge, FOMC & Vasil

What Are The Key Events In September To Look Out For? CPI, The Merge, FOMC & Vasil

September 2022 is going to be exciting. Although historically, this is a bad month for the stock markets. But it is not so for the crypto markets. In my humble opinion, there are a couple of key events that investors should be looking at very closely as they are all interlinked.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

We are starting with September 13. The U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics will share the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

One of those data points is the August Jobs figures that are already out. A close look at the U.S. labor market data showed that non-farm payrolls rose by 315,000 in August, higher than the estimated 298,000 but lower than the previous month’s 526,000. A strong employment sector means a more resilient economic condition, thus propelling Fed to tackle inflation more aggressively. Analysts also dig into the jobs report for signs of what is happening with wage growth.

The U.S. CPI figures will ultimately assist the Fed in deciding whether to go for a 50bps or 75bps rate hike, together with the jobs data for August that was provided earlier this month. The U.S. inflation rate increased from 8.6% in May 2022 to 8.5% in July and 9.1% in June. The U.S. inflation rate for August may serve as a benchmark for future Fed rate hikes.

Ethereum Merge

This is a much-anticipated event in the crypto scene for this year. This event has already begun. They have shipped the Bellatrix upgrade, the final update before the Merge itself that is scheduled to happen from September 13-15.

This upgrade will reduce Ethereum’s carbon footprint as crypto mining will be removed, moving the network’s consensus mechanism from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS). This move has also affected Nvidia’s stock price, as they have been a key supplier of mining equipment. The miners are still hopeful, and they think that the fork will continue to keep them in the business. On top of these, there was a lot of news and marketing buzz around the new Eth PoW airdrop. Key opinion leaders are telling all that borrowing as many ETH from AAVE or Compound would make sense before the snapshot as they can expect maximum utilization.

The bullish signs are showing on the charts, with the price of Ethereum going up to 4.98% while Bitcoin remains stagnant.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other discussions as needed. September 21 is the next meeting.

The Fed Chairman Powell’s “powerful” speech at Jackson Hole on August 26 is primarily to blame for the recent sharp decline in market prices. Powell’s comments were substantially more hawkish than anticipated and alarmed the market.

The market anticipated the Fed to remain neutral after recent inflation statistics revealed that inflation had peaked and prices were dropping. They expected the Fed to keep to its plans to increase interest rates by another 100-120 basis points (1% -1.2%) by the end of 2022, bringing the Fed funds rate to 3.25%-3.5%. At the last FOMC meeting, Powell had also given the market the assurance that the economy would have a soft landing and that no recession was imminent.

Powell used words like “bring some pain to households and businesses” and “very likely be some softening of labor conditions”. Analysts who looked at the speech were reading that the Fed Chair was suggesting the recent fall in inflation was not good enough. To stop inflation once and for all, the Fed was prepared to increase the unemployment rate, reduce wage growth, and sacrifice short-term growth.

For many Americans, the critical question is whether they can continue to keep their jobs, not the increase in rates of September as the Fed bears down on inflation.

The FOMC has raised interest rates four times in 2022 so far. If you are wondering what has the rate got to do with cryptocurrencies. For your information, Bitcoin’s price dipped as low as $17,500 following the Fed’s two-day meeting on June 14 and 15. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.75%. Generally, traders leave the market when interest rates increase, or other markets are impacted, which leads to a sell-off in cryptocurrencies.

Cardano Vasil Hard Fork

The Cardano Vasil hard fork is currently the second most anticipated upgrade in the crypto space, right behind the Ethereum Merge.

Many of us may not know the term “Vasil”. Cardano, ranked 8th on CoinMarketcap is a proof-of-stake blockchain platform: the first to be founded on peer-reviewed research and developed through evidence-based methods.

Vasil is a major upgrade on Cardano, bringing increased network capacity and lower-cost transactions. The upgrade will also bring improvement to Plutus, Cardano’s smart contract platform, to enable developers to create more efficient blockchain-based applications.

Cardano’s ADA token price rose 2.2% in the past 24 hours and 14% in the last week. This upgrade is confirmed to be on September 22.

Impact on the Financial Market

Because Bitcoin is seen as an investment instrument similar to stocks and bonds, the FOMC and macroeconomic pronouncements can greatly impact its price. Numerous studies show that these announcements also impact the financial market as a whole.

It remains to be seen if history will repeat itself and equities will conclude the month of September lower. As additional evidence comes in over the coming months, the idea of a Fed Pivot that was dismissed after Jackson Hole could start to materialize. Investors in the stock market anticipate that the Fed’s decision will provide them with guidance before the results of the upcoming quarter are released and when macroeconomic conditions change in 2023. Perhaps Ethereum and Cardano are the only shining knights in this financial uncertainty.

We will see.

I will end with a quote. “You will most likely come out on top in this bear market if you stick to your financial strategies and maintain your sense. Keep in mind that the people who sow their seeds today can become the millionaires who will profit from the upcoming bull market.”- Anndy Lian

Source: https://www.benzinga.com/22/09/28851850/what-are-the-key-events-in-september-to-look-out-for-cpi-the-merge-fomc-vasil

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j

September 13th, 2022

What Are the Major September Events to Keep an Eye On? The CPI, the Merge, the FOMC, & Vasil

What Are the Major September Events to Keep an Eye On? The CPI, the Merge, the FOMC, & Vasil

September 2022 will be an eventful month. The stock market has had a terrible month in the past. However, this is may not the case for the cryptocurrency markets. In my humble view, there are a few of major events that investors should pay special attention to since they are all interconnected.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

We’ll begin on September 13th. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics.

One of these data points is the August jobs report, which is already out. A careful examination of US labor market statistics revealed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 315,000 in August, above the projected 298,000 but falling short of the prior month’s 526,000. A healthy labor market means a more resilient economy, prompting the Fed to take on inflation more forcefully. Analysts are also looking for clues in the employment data about what is going on with wage growth.

The CPI numbers for the United States, together with the August jobs data released earlier this month, will eventually help the Fed decide whether to boost rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points. In the United States, the inflation rate rose from 8.6% in May 2022 to 8.5% in July and 9.1% in June. The August inflation rate in the United States might serve as a guideline for future Fed rate rises.

Ethereum Merge

This is a highly anticipated event in the cryptocurrency world this year. This event has already started. They have released the Bellatrix upgrade, the final update before the Merge, which is set for September 13-15.

This upgrade shift the network’s consensus method from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS). This will lower Ethereum’s carbon footprint by removing crypto mining . This decision has also had an impact on Nvidia’s stock price, given they are a major provider of mining equipment. The miners are nevertheless optimistic, believing that the fork will keep them in business. On top of that, there was a lot of publicity and marketing hype around the new Eth PoW airdrop. Key thought leaders are reminding everyone that borrowing as much ETH as possible from AAVE or Compound before the snapshot is a good idea since they can expect maximum utilization.

The charts are exhibiting strong indicators, with the price of Ethereum increasing by 4.98% while Bitcoin remains unchanged.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

Throughout the year, the FOMC has eight regularly scheduled meetings and extra talks as appropriate. The next meeting is scheduled on September 21.

The Fed Chairman Powell’s “powerful” speech at Jackson Hole on August 26 is primarily to blame for the recent sharp decline in market prices. Powell’s comments were substantially more hawkish than anticipated and alarmed the market.

The market anticipated the Fed to remain neutral after recent inflation statistics revealed that inflation had peaked and prices were dropping. They expected the Fed to keep to its plans to increase interest rates by another 100-120 basis points (1% -1.2%) by the end of 2022, bringing the Fed funds rate to 3.25%-3.5%. At the last FOMC meeting, Powell had also given the market the assurance that the economy would have a soft landing and that no recession was imminent.

Powell used words like “bring some pain to households and businesses” and “very likely be some softening of labor conditions”. Analysts who looked at the speech were reading that the Fed Chair was suggesting the recent fall in inflation was not good enough. To stop inflation once and for all, the Fed was prepared to increase the unemployment rate, reduce wage growth, and sacrifice short-term growth.

For many Americans, the critical question is whether they can continue to keep their jobs, not the increase in rates of September as the Fed bears down on inflation.

The FOMC has raised interest rates four times in 2022 so far. If you are wondering what has the rate got to do with cryptocurrencies. For your information, Bitcoin’s price dipped as low as $17,500 following the Fed’s two-day meeting on June 14 and 15. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.75%. Generally, traders leave the market when interest rates increase, or other markets are impacted, which leads to a sell-off in cryptocurrencies.

Cardano Vasil Hard Fork

The Cardano Vasil hard fork is the second most anticipated update in the cryptocurrency market, after only the Ethereum Merge.

Many of us may not know the term “Vasil”. Cardano, ranked 8th on CoinMarketcap is a proof-of-stake blockchain platform: the first to be founded on peer-reviewed research and developed through evidence-based methods.

Vasil is a significant improvement to Cardano, delivering enhanced network capacity and decreased transaction costs. Plutus, Cardano’s smart contract platform, will also be improved as part of the upgrade, allowing developers to design more efficient blockchain-based apps.

Cardano’s ADA token price rose 2.2% in the past 24 hours and 14% in the last week. This upgrade is confirmed to be on September 22.

Impact on the Financial Market

Because Bitcoin is viewed as an investment vehicle akin to stocks and bonds, the FOMC and macroeconomic pronouncements can have a significant influence on its price. Numerous studies suggest that these announcements have an influence on the whole financial market.

It remains to be seen whether history repeats itself and stocks end the month of September lower. As additional evidence comes in over the coming months, the idea of a Fed Pivot that was dismissed after Jackson Hole could start to materialize. Investors in the stock market anticipate that the Fed’s decision will provide them with guidance before the results of the upcoming quarter are released and when macroeconomic conditions change in 2023. Perhaps Ethereum and Cardano are the only shining knights in this financial uncertainty.

We will see.

I will end with a quote. “You will most likely come out on top in this bear market if you stick to your financial strategies and maintain your sense. Keep in mind that the people who sow their seeds today can become the millionaires who will profit from the upcoming bull market.”- Anndy Lian.

Source: https://www.securities.io/what-are-the-major-september-events-to-keep-an-eye-on-the-cpi-the-merge-the-fomc-vasil/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j