Trump Vs. Harris: Crypto Experts Give Final U.S. Election Analysis

Trump Vs. Harris: Crypto Experts Give Final U.S. Election Analysis

In the build-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, Bitcoin (BTC) flirted with all-time highs regarding the possibility that pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump would take the helm at the White House.

While polls are set to close on November 5, it could take days or even weeks for a winner to be declared, depending on how close the contest is.

If you are wondering whether now is a good time to buy Bitcoin, we have compiled all the information you need to know about the 2024 U.S. presidential election race.

Key Takeaways

  • The crypto markets nervously await the 2024 U.S. election outcome between Trump and Harris.
  • Polymarket favors Trump as the pro-crypto candidate, contrasting with traditional poll projections.
  • A Harris win may present a Bitcoin buying opportunity, while Trump could boost crypto optimism.
  • Key crypto experts share insights with Techopedia on the potential shift in the regulatory environment post-election.

The Tight 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Race

According to a poll by the New York Times (NYT) and Siena College, the 2024 U.S. presidential election race is the closest it has been in decades.

While odds on the crypto prediction market Polymarket showed Trump as a clear favorite to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Trump at a 61% chance compared to Kamala Harris’ 39%traditional pollsters and media houses expect a tighter contest.

Ahead of the November 5 voting deadline, NYT’s polls highlighted seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – that could decide the fate of the election.

As of November 5, Polymarket polls showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning in Pennsylvania. However, NYT and Siena College’s final set of polls said both Trump and Harris had a 48% chance each of winning in Pennsylvania.

In 2020, current U.S. president Joe Biden won the Pennsylvania state with a narrow 1.17% margin over Trump. The 2016 U.S. presidential election saw Trump win in Pennsylvania by a slender margin.

What Happens to Crypto Post-Election? Expert Analysis

Techopedia reached out to industry experts for exclusive insights on the impact of the U.S. presidential election on the crypto market.

Anndy Lian: Republican Majority in Congress is Key for Crypto Industry

Techopedia reached out to Anndy Lian, intergovernmental blockchain advisor and author of Blockchain Revolution 2030, for his thoughts on the U.S. presidential election race.

Firstly, Lian highlighted how crucial it was for the Trump-led Republican party to secure a majority in both houses of the U.S. Congress.

“For Republicans to effectively push through pro-crypto legislation, they really need to secure a majority in both houses. Without that majority, even a pro-crypto president might struggle to get meaningful bills passed.”

“So, while a Trump victory could spark optimism in the crypto space, the real key to unlocking potential growth lies in having a Republican majority in Congress.

“This combination could pave the way for policies that truly benefit the crypto market and help it thrive in the long run,” he added.

Next, we asked Lian what was in store for the crypto industry if Harris-led Democrats were to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“Harris has talked about supporting technological advancements, including digital assets, but there’s a concern that her policies might not stray far from the regulatory frameworks already in place.

“This could lead to an environment that focuses heavily on consumer protection and oversight, which might limit the more hands-off approach that many crypto advocates prefer.

“In the end, while a Democratic administration under Harris may not be as favorable for crypto as a Republican one, it doesn’t mean the industry is doomed.

The real question will be how her administration chooses to navigate the fast-changing world of cryptocurrencies.”

Finally, we asked Lian what he thought of the common notion that crypto regulations will change for the better no matter who wins the U.S. presidential elections.

“The idea that crypto regulations will improve regardless of who wins the presidency is an interesting one, but I think it oversimplifies a complex issue,” said Lian.

“The regulatory environment is influenced not just by the presidency but also by Congress, state governments, and international regulations.

“Even if there’s a general trend toward better regulations, the specifics will depend on the political climate and the priorities of those in power.”

10x Research: Harris Win Will Be Buying Opportunity

In a research note to Techopedia, 10x Research said the election outcome could hinge on “just one or two critical swing states”.

The Singapore-based crypto research firm noted that Bitcoin prices could slump 9% if Harris wins, while a Trump win could result in a 5% increase in Bitcoin prices.

10x Research added that a Harris win could present Bitcoin investors with a “buying opportunity.”

“The primary driver of this bull market, dating back to at least June 2023, has been the institutional adoption of Bitcoin, sparked by BlackRock’s application for a Bitcoin Spot ETF…

“Even if Harris were to ‘remain’ U.S. President, the impact on Bitcoin would likely be minimal,” said 10x Research.

However, 10x Research noted that this “buying opportunity” is not applicable to other cryptocurrencies, especially Solana (SOL), as a Harris win would lower the chances of a Solana ETF being approved.

“Crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana) could be up +5% if Trump wins, Bitcoin might be down -9% if Harris wins, and Solana -15%. Hence, a long Bitcoin vs. short Solana could be a reasonable election trade,” said 10x Research.

The Bottom Line

The run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election has been incredibly interesting to observe as a crypto enthusiast.

Be it the newfound political importance of the crypto industry or the divergence between traditional polls and crypto platform polls, one thing is for certain: we will remember 2024 as the year crypto came of age.

As we conclude this article, we would like to remind readers that cryptocurrencies are volatile assets. Always do your own research before investing. The information in this guide does not constitute investment advice and is meant for informational purposes only.

 

 

 

Source: https://www.techopedia.com/trump-vs-harris-crypto-experts-final-election-analysis

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Panel Discussion: VC vs KOLs Investment Strategy

Panel Discussion: VC vs KOLs Investment Strategy

The crypto world is at a crossroads. A recent panel discussion at a crypto event brought together a diverse group of experts – a venture capitalist, a representative from a major blockchain platform, and several angel investors – to dissect the changing dynamics of fundraising in this volatile space.

The moderator set the stage by pointing to a noticeable trend: a “crisis of narratives.” While fleeting trends and meme coins grab headlines, the industry seems to be lacking a cohesive long-term vision. This lack of direction, coupled with the aftermath of high-profile failures, has made venture capitalists wary, leading to a noticeable tightening of the purse strings.

This cautious approach from traditional funding sources has opened the door for a new breed of investors. Angel investors and smaller funds, less burdened by the need for massive returns, are stepping in to support promising projects. This shift is not just about available capital; it’s about a fundamental change in how projects are being evaluated and supported.

The panelists agreed that the old playbook of relying solely on big-name VCs is becoming outdated. Projects are realizing the importance of building strong communities and attracting a diverse range of investors who bring more than just money to the table. Strategic guidance, network access, and marketing expertise are now viewed as equally valuable, especially in a market saturated with projects vying for attention.

This new landscape demands adaptability and creativity from both sides of the table. Founders need to think beyond traditional fundraising rounds and explore alternative models, such as community-driven initiatives and tokenized equity. VCs, on the other hand, need to evolve from being just financiers to becoming active partners, offering tangible value beyond their initial investment.

The panel discussion served as a reminder that the crypto space while facing challenges, is also ripe for reinvention. The current climate, though turbulent, presents a unique opportunity to build a more sustainable and community-driven ecosystem where innovation thrives on shared vision and collaborative effort.

This event, held in Seoul on 2 September 2024, is a side event organized by ICP, NewTribe, and Cointelegraph in conjunction with the Korea Blockchain Week (KBW). Panelists include David from UFVentures, Shashi Shekhar from ICP, Red from PickelsDAO, Petr Martynov from Morningstar Ventures, and best-selling author Anndy Lian.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Binance vs SEC: Battle for Crypto Freedom or a Fight for Regulatory Compliance?

Binance vs SEC: Battle for Crypto Freedom or a Fight for Regulatory Compliance?

Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, is facing a legal challenge from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which accused it of violating securities laws and defrauding investors.

Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, filed court papers seeking to dismiss the lawsuit, claiming that the SEC has no jurisdiction over their activities and that they have complied with all applicable laws. However, the SEC has not given up on its pursuit of Binance, and has recently requested access to Binance.US’s software and documents, which was denied by a U.S. court.

The outcome of this case could have significant implications for the future of the crypto industry and its regulation in the U.S. and beyond.

How the Case Unfurled

The SEC’s Allegations The SEC’s lawsuit against Binance, Binance.US, and Zhao was filed in June 2023, following a months-long investigation into the exchange’s operations. The SEC alleges that Binance and Zhao engaged in a series of securities law violations, including:

  • Operating unregistered national securities exchanges, broker-dealers and clearing agencies in the U.S. — without complying with the registration, reporting and record-keeping requirements of the federal securities laws.
  • Offering and selling unregistered securities to U.S. investors, including Binance’s own crypto assets such as BNB, BUSD, crypto-lending products and staking-as-a-service programs.
  • Misrepresenting the nature and extent of their activities in the U.S., and subverting their own controls to secretly allow high-value U.S. customers to trade on Binance.com, which is not authorized to operate in the U.S.
  • Misleading investors and regulators about the independence and oversight of Binance.US, which is allegedly controlled by Zhao and Binance behind the scenes.
  • Commingling investor funds with their own funds and diverting them to third parties owned by Zhao, such as Sigma Chain and Merit Peak Limited.
  • Engaging in manipulative trading practices that artificially inflated the trading volume and prices of crypto assets on Binance.US.

The SEC seeks injunctive relief, disgorgement of ill-gotten gains, civil penalties and permanent bans on Binance and Zhao from engaging in any securities-related activities in the U.S.

Binance’s Defense Binance and Zhao have denied the SEC’s allegations and have filed motions to dismiss the lawsuit. They argue that the SEC has no authority or jurisdiction over their activities, and they have complied with all applicable laws. They contend that:

  • The SEC has failed to provide any clear or consistent guidance on what constitutes a security or a securities-related activity in the crypto space, and has attempted to retroactively apply its vague and ambiguous rules to Binance and Zhao.
  • The SEC has failed to show that Binance or Zhao have any substantial contacts or connections with the U.S., or that they have targeted or solicited U.S. investors in any way.
  • The SEC has failed to prove that any of the crypto assets offered or sold by Binance or Zhao are securities under the federal securities laws, or that they have any characteristics or features of securities.
  • The SEC has failed to establish that Binance or Zhao have operated any unregistered national securities exchanges, broker-dealers, or clearing agencies in the U.S., or that they have performed any functions or services that require such registration.
  • The SEC has failed to demonstrate that Binance or Zhao have made any false or misleading statements or omissions to investors or regulators, or that they have engaged in any fraudulent or manipulative conduct.

Binance.US’s Response Binance.US, which is formally known as BAM Trading Services Inc., has also filed a motion to dismiss the charges against it.

It claims that it is a separate and independent entity from Binance and Zhao, and that it operates a fully compliant and regulated crypto trading platform in the U.S. It asserts that:

  • It has obtained a money services business license from FinCEN, a money transmitter license from NYSDFS, and a virtual currency license from NYDFS.
  • It has registered as a money services business with FinCEN
  • It has implemented robust anti-money laundering, know-your-customer, and cybersecurity policies and procedures, and has engaged independent auditors to verify its compliance.
  • It has obtained approval from the SEC to list and trade certain crypto assets that are deemed securities, such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Trust.
  • It has cooperated fully with the SEC’s investigation and has provided all the requested information and documents, except for those that are protected by attorney-client privilege or trade secrets.

Binance.US argues that the SEC’s lawsuit is based on unfounded allegations and irrelevant evidence, and that it should be dismissed for lack of merit and jurisdiction.

The SEC’s Request for Inspection In a bid to bolster its case against Binance, the SEC has sought to inspect Binance.US’s software and documents, claiming that they are relevant and material to its investigation. The SEC asserts that:

  • Binance.US’s software and documents may reveal the extent and nature of Binance and Zhao’s involvement and control over Binance.US, as well as their access to Binance.US’s customer data and funds.
  • Binance.US’s software and documents may show how Binance.US’s platform operates, how it determines the eligibility and availability of crypto assets, how it executes trades and transfers, and how it handles customer complaints and disputes.
  • Binance.US’s software and documents may demonstrate whether Binance.US has complied with the federal securities laws and regulations, or whether it has engaged in any securities law violations or fraudulent conduct.

The SEC has requested access to Binance.US’s source code, user interface, application programming interface, database schema, data dictionary, technical specifications, user manuals, policies and procedures, contracts and agreements, correspondence and communications, financial statements, audit reports and other relevant records.

However, the SEC’s request for inspection was denied by a U.S. district court judge in New York. The judge ruled that:

  • The SEC’s request was overly broad, burdensome, and intrusive, as it sought to obtain virtually all of Binance.US’s software and documents without specifying their relevance or necessity.
  • The SEC’s request was premature, as it had not exhausted other less intrusive means of obtaining the information it sought, such as interrogatories, depositions, or subpoenas.
  • The SEC’s request was disproportionate to the needs of the case, as it would impose significant costs and risks on Binance.US, while providing little or no benefit to the SEC.
  • The SEC’s request was unjustified, as it had not shown any reasonable basis or probable cause to believe that Binance.US’s software and documents contained any evidence of securities law violations or fraudulent conduct.

The judge concluded that the SEC had failed to meet its burden of showing that its request for inspection was relevant, material, necessary, reasonable, or proportional to the issues in dispute. The judge also noted that granting the SEC’s request would violate Binance.US’s privacy rights and trade secrets protections.

Implications of SEC’s Ruling

The court’s denial of the SEC’s request for inspection is a significant setback for the SEC in its lawsuit against Binance. It indicates that the court is not convinced by the SEC’s arguments or evidence, and that it is not willing to grant the SEC unlimited access to Binance.US’s software and documents. It also suggests that the court is sympathetic to Binance.US’s defense and claims of compliance.

However, the court’s denial does not mean that the SEC’s lawsuit is over. The SEC may still pursue other means of obtaining information from Binance.US or other parties. The SEC may also appeal the court’s decision or file a revised request for inspection. The SEC may also present other arguments or evidence to support its allegations against Binance.

The outcome of this case could have significant implications for the future of the crypto industry and its regulation in the U.S. and beyond. If the SEC prevails in its lawsuit against Binance, it could set a precedent for cracking down on other crypto platforms that operate in or target U.S. investors without complying with U.S. securities laws. It could also deter innovation and competition in the crypto space by imposing stringent requirements and restrictions on crypto platforms.

On the other hand, if Binance succeeds in dismissing the lawsuit or reaching a settlement with the SEC, it could signal a victory for crypto freedom and innovation. It could also encourage more dialogue and cooperation between crypto platforms and regulators to foster a more conducive and compliant environment for crypto development.

In any case, this case is likely to shape the future of crypto regulation in the U.S. and beyond. It will test the limits of the SEC’s authority and jurisdiction over crypto assets and activities. It will also challenge the definitions and classifications of crypto assets as securities or non-securities. It will also highlight the need for clear and consistent guidance and rules for crypto platforms and investors.

This case is not only a legal battle between Binance and the SEC. It is also a fight for crypto freedom or a fight for regulatory compliance. It is a fight that will have profound implications for the crypto industry and society.

 

Source: https://mpost.io/binance-vs-sec-battle-for-crypto-freedom-or-a-fight-for-regulatory-compliance/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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