February 28th, 2025

Market wrap: A week of retreat and reflection

The numbers tell a story of retreat: major US equity indices took a beating on Thursday, with the S&P 500 sliding 1.5 per cent and the Nasdaq plunging 2.8 per cent. Nvidia, a darling of the tech world, stumbled 8.4 per cent despite exceeding earnings expectations—a sign that even stellar results can’t always appease jittery investors.

Meanwhile, the bond market stirred, with the 10-year Treasury yield ticking up 3 basis points to 4.28 per cent and the 2-year yield edging to 4.07 per cent. The US Dollar Index surged 0.8 per cent, its biggest one-day leap in two months, fuelled by tariff headlines that have markets on edge as the March 4 deadline looms for Canada and Mexico, alongside whispers of a 10 per cent hike for China.

Gold, often a safe haven, didn’t escape the pressure, dropping 1.1 per cent to its lowest in over two weeks, while Brent crude bucked the trend, climbing 2.1 per cent amid supply worries tied to Trump’s revocation of a US oil major’s license in Venezuela. Across the Pacific, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index fell 0.88 per cent, poised for its first weekly loss in seven weeks, with Asian equities mostly lower in early Friday trading.

The cryptocurrency space mirrored this gloom. Bitcoin cratered below US$80,000 on February 28, hitting US$79,666—its weakest since November 11, 2024—shedding over 5 per cent in a single day and 25 per cent since its mid-December peak above US$105,000. Ethereum fared even worse, tumbling to a 14-month low of US$2,150, down 20 per cent in a week, hammered by risk aversion and institutional selling.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, offloaded 30,280 ETH across four transactions to Coinbase Prime, while its iShares Ethereum Trust dumped US$70 million worth of ETH. Other heavyweights like Fidelity, Grayscale, and Bitwise pulled US$24.5 million from their Ethereum accounts, amplifying the sell-off. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to 10, signalling “extreme fear” not seen since 2022’s market crash.

Yet, amid this chaos, Ethereum’s derivatives market offers a glimmer of resilience: 30-day ETH futures trade at a 7 per cent premium over spot prices, up from 6 per cent two days ago, and options skew at -2 per cent suggests whales aren’t panicking—echoing a recovery pattern from a 38 per cent drop on February 3.

My take: Navigating the storm

This week feels like a wake-up call—a reminder that markets, for all their sophistication, are still tethered to human sentiment and political whims. Let’s unpack it. The retreat in global risk sentiment isn’t a bolt from the blue; it’s been brewing in a cauldron of events that sparked profit-taking. Consumer confidence dipped below expectations on Tuesday, a red flag for an economy that thrives on spending.

Then came Nvidia’s earnings—objectively strong, yet not dazzling enough to halt the sell-off in the AI complex. Investors seem to be recalibrating, perhaps realising that the semiconductor boom (phase 1 of the AI story) might be giving way to infrastructure hyperscalers (phase 2) and software applications (phase 3). Add to that a softening labor market—possibly a ripple from the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency culling—and the stage was set for Thursday’s tumble.

The tariff saga is the elephant in the room. With Trump pushing ahead on Canada, Mexico, and China, markets are grappling with uncertainty. Tariffs could jolt supply chains, inflate costs, and squeeze corporate margins—hardly a recipe for bullishness.

The US Dollar’s jump reflects this tension, pressuring risk assets like equities and crypto. Gold’s decline surprises me less; it’s a crowded trade, and profit-taking was overdue. Brent crude’s rise, though, underscores how geopolitical moves—like Trump’s Venezuela decision—can override broader risk-off vibes in specific sectors.

Crypto’s woes deserve a closer look. Bitcoin’s drop below US$80,000 feels like a gut punch to the bulls who saw it as a Trump-era golden child. Hopes of US support for digital currencies are fading, overshadowed by tariff uncertainties and a US$1.5 billion Ether hack that’s spooked the market.

Ethereum’s plunge to US$2,150 is uglier still, driven by institutional exits that signal distribution, not just panic. BlackRock’s moves are telling—when the biggest player starts unloading, others follow. Yet, the derivatives data intrigues me. That 7 per cent futures premium and neutral options skew suggest a core of confidence among big players, hinting at a potential floor. History backs this up: Ethereum’s 38 per cent drop on February 3 was a prelude to a swift rebound. Could we see that again? It’s possible, but not guaranteed.

So, where does this leave us? I see a few paths forward. First, fixed income is shining as a stabiliser. With the 10-year yield at 4.28 per cent, bonds are outpacing the S&P 500 year-to-date—a rare feat that underscores their role in turbulent times. I’ve long felt US stocks were pricey; the S&P 500’s consolidation feels healthy, a chance to buy the dip if you’re nimble.

The Mag7’s 9 per cent year-to-date loss stings, but the Other 493 stocks holding a 3 per cent gain show resilience outside the tech bubble. Timing matters—today’s PCE inflation data could tip the scales. A hotter-than-expected read might fuel more selling as February closes, so brace for volatility.

China’s an outlier worth watching. The February 17 Symposium, chaired by President Xi, has sparked optimism about private enterprise, driving a sharp rally. But technicals scream overheating—RSI and MACD indicators are flashing red. I’d approach this via derivatives—options or futures—to cushion downside risk. The move’s been too fast to dive in blind.

On the AI front, I’m not writing it off. The Nvidia slump doesn’t kill the story; it shifts it. Semiconductors are cooling, but infrastructure (think cloud giants) and software (AI apps) are heating up. Rotation, not collapse, is my read. Crypto’s trickier—Bitcoin and Ethereum are battered, but the derivatives hint at a bottoming process. I wouldn’t bet the farm yet; “extreme fear” can linger. Still, if you’re a contrarian, nibbling at these levels could pay off if March brings clarity on tariffs and policy.

The Bigger Picture

Zooming out, this week encapsulates 2025’s volatility. Trump’s tariff plans, economic softening, and sector rotations are rewriting the playbook. Investors face a choice: hunker down in bonds and wait, chase China’s momentum with caution, or hunt for bargains in beaten-down tech and crypto.

I lean toward a balanced approach—some fixed income for safety, selective equity dips (O493 over Mag7 for now), and a watchful eye on crypto derivatives for signs of life. The PCE data today could be a pivot point; a benign number might steady nerves, while a spike could deepen the rut.

Either way, this isn’t a crisis—it’s a correction with opportunities for those who can stomach the ride.

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-a-week-of-retreat-and-reflection-20250228/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

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February 7th, 2025

Markets on edge as jobs data, currency shifts, and crypto milestones shape the week

7 February 2025 marks a pivotal moment for global markets as investors grapple with a confluence of critical economic indicators, shifting currency dynamics, and transformative developments in the cryptocurrency space. Wall Street traders are on edge, awaiting the release of US non-farm payroll data that could illuminate the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates, while the Japanese yen surges to its highest level since early December, buoyed by hawkish comments from a Bank of Japan official.

Meanwhile, Amazon’s disappointing profit projections send ripples through after-hours trading, and the cryptocurrency market sees increased institutional engagement alongside significant regulatory milestones. As a journalist deeply attuned to the pulse of global finance, I believe this week underscores the intricate balance between risk and opportunity, with profound implications for investors, policymakers, and the broader economy.

Let’s begin with the US jobs data, which has become the focal point for Wall Street traders. The non-farm payroll report is more than just a snapshot of employment trends; it is a critical barometer for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. A weak print could reignite expectations for further interest rate cuts, providing a much-needed boost to risk assets and potentially alleviating some of the pressure on equity markets.

Conversely, a stronger-than-expected report might temper hopes for additional easing, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on inflation. The stakes are high, particularly as Wall Street also anticipates a revision to previous job growth figures—a development that could further complicate the Fed’s decision-making process.

The interplay between these data points highlights the fragility of the current economic recovery, with markets hanging on every decimal point. From my perspective, the Fed faces an unenviable task: balancing the need to support growth while guarding against inflationary pressures. A misstep here could have profound consequences, not just for the US economy but for global financial stability.

Beyond the jobs data, the broader US market landscape offers mixed signals. The MSCI US index edged higher by 0.4 per cent, with the Consumer Staples sector outperforming at 0.9 per cent. This resilience in defensive sectors suggests that investors are hedging their bets, seeking safety amid uncertainty.

At the same time, US Treasury yields ticked upward, with the 10-year yield rising by 1.6 basis points to 4.43 per cent and the 2-year yield climbing by 2.5 basis points to 4.21 per cent. These modest increases reflect a market grappling with the potential for higher interest rates, even as the US Dollar Index consolidated its recent losses with a slight 0.1 per cent uptick.

Gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset, saw its upward momentum persist, albeit with a slight 0.4 per cent pullback, as it continued its march toward the US$2,900 per ounce mark. These movements paint a picture of a market in flux, with investors seeking refuge in traditional safe havens while cautiously navigating the shifting sands of monetary policy.

On the global stage, the Japanese yen’s appreciation to its highest level since early December is a development worth noting. The currency’s gains were spurred by comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Naoki Tamura, who made a compelling case for higher interest rates. This hawkish stance contrasts sharply with the BOJ’s historically dovish policies, signaling a potential shift in Japan’s monetary strategy. The yen’s strength is a double-edged sword: while it bolsters the purchasing power of Japanese consumers and importers, it poses challenges for exporters and could dampen economic growth.

From my vantage point, Tamura’s comments are a bold move, reflecting the BOJ’s growing confidence in Japan’s economic recovery. However, the central bank must tread carefully, as premature rate hikes could undermine the fragile progress made in combating deflation. The yen’s appreciation also has broader implications for global currency markets, potentially influencing the relative strength of the US dollar and other major currencies.

Shifting gears to the commodity markets, Brent crude oil hovered just below US$75 per barrel, weighed down by concerns over President Trump’s proposed tariffs on China. These tariffs, if implemented, could reduce global crude demand, particularly from one of the world’s largest oil consumers. At the same time, Trump’s pledge to boost US oil output adds another layer of complexity, potentially offsetting the impact of sanctions on Iran. This delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics underscores the geopolitical risks embedded in the oil market.

As a journalist, I find it striking how political decisions in one corner of the world can ripple through global commodity markets, affecting everything from energy prices to inflation expectations. The mixed performance of Asian equities and the flat outlook for US equity index futures further highlight the uncertainty permeating global markets, as investors grapple with these intersecting forces.

Turning to the cryptocurrency space, this week brought several notable developments that reflect the sector’s growing maturity. JP Morgan’s latest eTrading survey revealed a significant uptick in institutional engagement with cryptocurrencies, with 13 per cent of the 4,200 surveyed institutional traders actively trading digital assets, up from nine per cent in 2024.

This increase aligns with the launch of US Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and the remarkable 120 per cent surge in Bitcoin prices over the course of the year. The contrast with 2023, a period marked by the fallout from the FTX collapse, is stark. The recovery and subsequent growth in 2024 underscore the resilience of the crypto market and its ability to attract institutional capital.

However, it’s worth noting that 71 per cent of surveyed traders still have no plans to trade cryptocurrencies, down from 78 per cent the previous year. This cautious stance suggests that while the crypto market is gaining traction, significant barriers to adoption remain, including regulatory uncertainty and concerns about volatility.

The survey also highlighted the relative importance of various technologies, with artificial intelligence extending its dominance, followed by APIs. Blockchain, while still a distant third at six per cent (down from seven per cent last year), remains a critical technology for the crypto ecosystem. The decline in blockchain’s perceived importance is intriguing, particularly in light of the SEC’s recent launch of a Crypto Task Force website aimed at clarifying regulations for digital assets.

This initiative, which focuses on token classification and compliance, is a step in the right direction, providing much-needed guidance for market participants. Similarly, Franklin Templeton’s bid to launch a new crypto index ETF signals growing institutional interest in diversified crypto exposure. These developments are emblematic of the broader trend toward mainstream acceptance of digital assets, even as challenges persist.

In my view, the cryptocurrency market is at a pivotal moment. The increased institutional engagement and regulatory clarity are positive signs, but the sector must continue to address concerns about transparency, security, and systemic risk. The lessons of the FTX collapse and other high-profile failures must not be forgotten.

As the crypto ecosystem evolves, it will be crucial for regulators and industry players to work collaboratively to build a framework that fosters innovation while protecting investors. The golden age of crypto, as some have dubbed it, is within reach, but it will require careful navigation of the complex interplay between technology, regulation, and market dynamics.

To conclude, this week’s developments paint a picture of a global financial landscape marked by uncertainty and opportunity. From the anticipation surrounding US jobs data to the yen’s resurgence and the evolving dynamics in the cryptocurrency space, the forces shaping markets are multifaceted and interconnected.

As a journalist, I remain cautiously optimistic about the future, but I am mindful of the risks that lie ahead. The path forward will require vigilance, adaptability, and a commitment to balancing innovation with stability. The global economy stands at a critical juncture, and the decisions made in the coming months will reverberate for years to come.

Source: https://e27.co/markets-on-edge-as-jobs-data-currency-shifts-and-crypto-milestones-shape-the-week-20250207/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

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December 15th, 2024

Empowering Creators in Web3: Unlocking New Avenues for User Engagement – A Panel Discussion at Taipei Blockchain Week 2024

This article summarizes a panel discussion from Taipei Blockchain Week on “Empowering Creators in Web3: Unlocking New Avenues For User Engagement.” Moderated by Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain expert. The panel featured Alex Casassovici (Founder of Azarus), Gemmy Wong (Crypto YouTuber, Gem Gem Crypto), and Giu Comia (KOL). The discussion centered around creator successes, Web3 user conversion, platform strategies, and advice for newcomers.

Community Building and User Acquisition:

Giu Comia highlighted the Philippines as a prime example of successful community building in Web3, emphasizing the popularity of video creation and the potential for large-scale user acquisition. He shared a success story of helping a Japanese project onboard 450,000 users in a short period during a bear market. Addressing concerns about lower investment levels from Southeast Asian users, Comia argued that mass adoption with smaller contributions from a large user base is preferable to a smaller group of high-value investors. He believes this approach fosters global adoption and simplifies compliance.

Leveraging Platform-Specific Strategies:

Gemmy Wong shared her success story of growing her YouTube channel by focusing on search engine optimization (SEO) and incorporating relevant keywords into her content. She advised smaller creators to focus on specific keywords to improve searchability and visibility. Wong also highlighted the importance of identifying the right platforms for engagement, noting that while she found success with individual direct messages (DMs), managing larger platforms like Discord proved challenging. She emphasized the value of targeted content that caters to specific search queries, citing examples like “top 5 projects to check out.”

Creating Engaging Experiences and Fostering Loyalty:

Alex Casassovici discussed Azarus’s success in creating engaging experiences through interactive livestreams and reward systems. He cited the example of a show that garnered 200,000 concurrent viewers, demonstrating the power of real-time engagement and incentivization. Casassovici emphasized the importance of providing value to both creators and viewers, enabling creators to monetize their content and viewers to earn rewards for their participation. He believes this creates a strong feedback loop that fosters loyalty and encourages further engagement.

Converting Web2 Users to Web3:

Anndy Lian agreed that converting Web2 users to Web3 requires the right product and approach. Comia stressed the importance of clear communication and relatable content, moving beyond complex concepts to showcase tangible benefits and real-world applications. Wong echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the need for a “buddy system” to guide newcomers through the onboarding process and address their concerns. She shared personal anecdotes of converting friends and family by patiently explaining the benefits and opportunities of Web3. All panelists agreed that relatability and trust are key factors in successful conversion. Comia added that focusing on the right projects and partners is crucial, as not all conversions are positive, and some can lead to negative experiences.

Platform Preferences and Strategies:

When asked about the best platform for Web3 engagement, Casassovici highlighted the importance of creating seamless experiences that integrate directly within existing platforms. He emphasized the need to avoid disrupting user flow and provide value within the context of the platform where users are already engaged. He mentioned Azarus’s focus on Twitch and YouTube as key platforms for their work. Wong and Comia both acknowledged the reach and virality of TikTok as a powerful tool for attracting new creators and users to the Web3 space.

Advice for New Creators:

The panelists offered valuable advice for aspiring Web3 creators. Comia encouraged newcomers to focus on consistent content creation, emphasizing the importance of showing up regularly and building a following over time. Wong advised creators to be patient and focus on research and learning, attending events and connecting with the community. Casassovici stressed the importance of authenticity and engagement, stating that success in Web3 is not solely about follower count but about creating meaningful interactions and building a strong community. Anndy highlighted the importance of genuine engagement over superficial metrics. He added that creators should focus on projects they believe in and avoid promoting projects solely for financial gain.

Key Takeaways:

Community is King: Building strong communities is essential for Web3 success.
Relatability and Trust: Converting Web2 users requires relatable content and building trust.
Platform Strategy: Choosing the right platform and integrating seamlessly is crucial.
Authentic Engagement: Genuine interaction trumps vanity metrics.
Patience and Persistence: Building a successful Web3 presence takes time and effort.

The panel discussion provided valuable insights into the evolving landscape of Web3 and the opportunities it presents for creators. By focusing on community building, user engagement, and platform-specific strategies, creators can unlock new avenues for growth and contribute to the mass adoption of Web3 technologies.