April 17th, 2025

Tariffs, tech crashes, crypto dips, and gold’s record run: Why markets are in chaos today

This week, the interplay of US-Japan trade talks, US-China tariff escalations, and new restrictions on chip exports has kept markets on edge. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s measured response to the turmoil has dashed hopes for immediate intervention, leaving investors to grapple with volatile asset prices and shifting risk sentiment.

The current market landscape is a complex tapestry of competing forces, from Bitcoin’s resilience to Ethereum’s technical signals, US equities’ performance, and gold’s safe-haven allure. Below, I offer my perspective on these developments, weaving together the broader macroeconomic context, asset-specific dynamics, and the implications for investors navigating this fraught environment.

The tentative global risk sentiment reflects the high stakes of ongoing tariff negotiations, particularly between the US and its major trading partners. The advancement of US-Japan trade talks, marked by President Trump’s optimistic claim of “big progress,” provided a modest lift to Japanese equities, with the Nikkei 225 gaining slightly. However, the yen weakened as investors priced in the likelihood of a deal that could avert higher US levies on Japanese goods, particularly in the auto sector. This development underscores Japan’s delicate balancing act: while a trade agreement could stabilise its export-driven economy, a stronger US dollar against the yen could pressure Japanese manufacturers’ competitiveness. The Bank of Japan, already grappling with a low-yield environment, may face further constraints if US tariffs dampen economic growth, as Governor Kazuo Ueda recently hinted.

For investors, the yen’s trajectory and Japan’s market performance hinge on the specifics of any deal—whether it prioritises market access or imposes new non-tariff barriers.

The US-China trade war, however, remains the epicentre of market anxiety. The White House’s confirmation of a staggering 245 per cent cumulative tariff rate on Chinese imports, following China’s retaliatory 125 per cent levies on US goods, signals a deepening economic standoff. This tit-for-tat escalation, coupled with new US restrictions on chip exports by Nvidia and AMD, has battered technology stocks and fueled fears of disrupted global supply chains. The chip export curbs, targeting Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 AI chips, are a strategic move to limit China’s access to advanced technology, but they come at a cost: Nvidia estimates a US$5.5 billion hit to its revenue, and its shares slumped nearly seven per cent.

The broader tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 3.1 per cent, contributing to the MSCI US index’s 2.2 per cent decline. These developments highlight the fragility of the tech sector, which has been a cornerstone of US market performance but is now vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

China’s response has been multifaceted, blending defiance with pragmatism. Beijing’s vow to “fight to the end” against US tariffs is tempered by signals of openness to negotiations, suggesting a desire to avoid a complete collapse of trade relations. However, China’s reported sale of confiscated cryptocurrency holdings, including Bitcoin, amid an economic slowdown, adds another layer of complexity.

This move, likely driven by the need to bolster fiscal reserves, has sparked speculation about its impact on crypto markets. Remarkably, Bitcoin has shown resilience, holding above US$84,000 despite the sales. This strength can be attributed to Bitcoin’s growing perception as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly as central banks and investors seek alternatives to traditional assets amid trade war volatility. Posts on X reflect this sentiment, with some users noting Bitcoin’s 64 per cent market dominance—a level not seen since early 2021—as evidence of its safe-haven appeal.

Ethereum, by contrast, has struggled, slipping below US$1,600 and entering a technically bearish phase. An analysis by CryptoQuant’s abramchart offers a nuanced perspective, suggesting that Ethereum’s current price near its realised price of US$1,585 could signal a deep-value accumulation zone. Historically, such levels have preceded major bull runs as long-term holders re-enter the market. However, technical indicators paint a mixed picture: Ethereum’s breach of its 20-day moving average and its position well below the 200-day average confirm a strong downtrend, while the relative strength index near 40 indicates weak momentum.

The compressed Bollinger Bands suggest a potential breakout, but the direction remains uncertain. For investors, Ethereum’s current dynamics present both opportunity and risk. While the realised price level hints at undervaluation, the broader market’s risk-off mood and trade war headwinds could delay a rebound.

The Federal Reserve’s role in this turbulent environment cannot be overstated. Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks this week, emphasising a wait-and-see approach to tariffs, have quashed expectations of a “Fed put”—a swift policy response to stabilise markets. Powell’s caution is rooted in the dual risks of higher inflation and slower growth, which tariffs are “highly likely” to exacerbate. His acknowledgement that the Fed faces a “highly uncertain outlook” underscores the central bank’s dilemma: cutting rates could fuel inflation while holding or raising rates risks stifling growth and employment. The Fed’s benchmark rate, currently between 4.25 per cent and 4.5 per cent, reflects this holding pattern, with traders still betting on cuts by June despite Powell’s reticence. The Fed’s data-dependent stance, coupled with solid economic indicators like March’s 228,000 job additions, suggests that any policy shift will hinge on clearer evidence of tariff-related economic fallout.

Fixed-income markets have also felt the strain, with US Treasury yields edging lower as investors reassess growth prospects. The 10-year yield fell 5.6 basis points to 4.28 per cent, and the two-year yield dropped 7.5 basis points to 3.77 per cent, reflecting concerns about a potential recession. The US dollar index’s 0.8 per cent decline, reaching its lowest level since April 2022, signals waning confidence in US assets as investors pivot to safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Gold, meanwhile, has surged 3.5 per cent to a record US$3,339 per ounce, with ANZ Bank forecasting a rise to US$3,600 by year-end.

This rally, driven by central bank purchases and haven demand, underscores gold’s role as a bulwark against geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Brent crude’s 1.8 per cent rise to around US$65 per barrel, spurred by US sanctions on Chinese importers of Iranian oil, highlights the ripple effects of trade policies on commodity markets.

US equities, particularly the energy sector, have shown pockets of resilience, with energy stocks gaining 0.8 per cent amid higher oil prices. However, the broader MSCI US index’s 2.2 per cent tumble reflects the tech sector’s drag and broader tariff fears. Asian equities, trading in a tight range, have been buoyed by hopes of Chinese stimulus, but volatility persists as negotiation headlines dominate. US equity futures, pointing to a 0.4 per cent higher open, suggest a tentative recovery, but the market’s direction remains contingent on trade developments.

From my perspective, the current market environment demands a disciplined, long-term approach. The escalation of US-China tariffs and chip export restrictions poses significant risks to global growth, particularly for the tech and manufacturing sectors. However, opportunities exist in assets such as Bitcoin and gold, which are benefiting from their safe-haven status. Ethereum’s technical setup, while bearish, suggests potential for accumulation by patient investors.

Powell’s cautious stance, while frustrating for those seeking immediate relief, is a prudent response to an unprecedented policy shock. Investors should focus on diversification, prioritising assets with strong fundamentals and resilience to geopolitical volatility. The road ahead is fraught with uncertainty, but those who navigate it with clarity and conviction may find opportunities amid the storm.

In conclusion, the global markets are at a crossroads, shaped by the interplay of trade tensions, monetary policy, and shifting investor sentiment. The US-China tariff war, US-Japan trade talks, and the Fed’s watchful stance are driving volatility across equities, currencies, and commodities. Bitcoin’s resilience, Ethereum’s accumulation potential, and gold’s surge highlight the divergent paths assets are taking in this environment. As negotiations unfold and economic data clarifies the tariff impact, investors must remain agile, balancing risk and opportunity in a rapidly evolving landscape.

Source: https://e27.co/why-markets-are-in-chaos-today-20250417/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

April 17th, 2025

The Dark Side of Altcoins: Collusion, Price Manipulation, and the CEX Problem

The cryptocurrency market, once a beacon of hope for financial innovation and transparency, is now facing a crisis of confidence that threatens its very foundation. As we move through 2025, it has become obvious that the altcoin sector is plagued by a toxic mix of collusion, price manipulation, and a glaring lack of transparency—especially on centralized exchanges (CEXs). The result is a market that feels increasingly rigged, where genuine price discovery is rare and retail investors are left holding the bag. I watched this industry evolve from its idealistic beginnings to its current state, I believe the time for self-reflection and reform is now, before the damage becomes irreversible.

The Mechanics of Manipulation in 2025

The most insidious problem in today’s altcoin market is the collusion between project teams and market makers. In theory, market makers are supposed to provide liquidity and stability, but in practice, many have become partners in manipulation. The process is disturbingly simple: project teams allocate large amounts of tokens to market makers at deep discounts before a token generation event (TGE). These market makers then orchestrate artificial price pumps at launch, creating the illusion of demand. Retail investors, seeing the price action, rush in—only to see the token’s value collapse as insiders dump their holdings.

The numbers in 2025 are staggering. In my own observation, most of the newly launch altcoin have lost 95% of their market cap. This is not a fluke or a reflection of poor project quality; it is a direct result of coordinated manipulation. The median altcoin launched in 2024-2025 is down by at around 70% from its TGE price. This pattern is so consistent that it has become a running joke among traders: “Buy the rumor, sell the TGE, and pray you’re not the last one out.”

Centralized Exchanges: The Silent Enablers

Centralized exchanges, which still control roughly more than half of the global crypto market cap, are at the heart of this crisis. Despite their dominance, most CEXs have done little to address the manipulation happening on their platforms. The incentives are clear: listing fees and trading volumes are lucrative, and exchanges benefit from the volatility and hype that manipulated launches generate.

Transparency is sorely lacking. While some exchanges have made token efforts to publish proof-of-reserves or improve listing standards, these measures are often superficial. The reality is that order books can be spoofed, wash trading is rampant, and the true nature of liquidity is hidden behind closed doors

This lack of transparency is fundamentally at odds with the ethos that drew so many to crypto in the first place. Bitcoin’s original promise was a system where trust was replaced by cryptographic proof and open ledgers. In 2025, the altcoin market feels more like a casino run by insiders than a transparent, decentralized financial system.

This is also reflected in the poll that I have conducted, 82.4% of the respondents think that CEX should held to a higher standard and they should lead by example to help the crypto industry.

The Human Cost: Confidence in Freefall

The impact of this dysfunction is not just financial—it is deeply personal. I have spoken with countless retail investors who entered the market in good faith, only to be burned by the same cycle of hype, manipulation, and collapse. Many have lost significant savings, not because they made reckless bets, but because the system was stacked against them from the start.

This erosion of trust is now quantifiable. According to a poll on X conducted by me, 63% of respondents believe that most altcoin prices are manipulated, and 37% have reduced or stopped investing in new token launches altogether.

The Absurdity of TGE Pricing

Perhaps the most glaring symptom of the current malaise is the absurdity of TGE pricing. In a rational market, the price of a new token should reflect its utility, adoption prospects, and the fundamentals of the project. Instead, TGE prices are set at levels designed to maximize returns for insiders and early backers, with little regard for long-term sustainability.

The result is a predictable crash. New tokens losing more than half its value within the first two weeks of trading become a norm. This is not just a problem for speculators; it undermines the entire process of capital formation and innovation in the crypto space. When every new launch seems like a trap for retail investors, genuine projects struggle to attract long-term supporters.

The Failure of Self-Regulation

For years, the crypto industry has argued that self-regulation is preferable to government intervention. But the events of 2024 and 2025 have shown that self-regulation is, at best, a myth. The industry’s inability—or unwillingness—to police itself has created a Wild West environment where bad actors thrive and honest participants are left disillusioned.

Just this morning, I warned my community that “the industry is eating itself alive,” and that unless meaningful reforms are enacted, both retail and institutional investors will continue to flee. My warning is echoed by community members who acknowledge that the status quo is unsustainable.

The Case for Reform: Transparency and Decentralization

So, what can be done to restore trust and legitimacy to the altcoin market? In my view, the answer lies in a renewed commitment to transparency, decentralization, and investor protection.

First, centralized exchanges must be held to higher standards. This means real-time publication of order flows, full disclosure of market maker relationships, and transparent token allocation data. Exchanges should be required to implement robust surveillance systems to detect and prevent manipulation, and to cooperate with independent audits. Some progress is being made—several exchanges have begun publishing more detailed transparency reports —but these efforts are still the exception rather than the rule.

Second, the industry must accelerate the shift toward decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and on-chain trading. While DEXs currently account for about 25% of trading volume, they offer a level of transparency and auditability that CEXs simply cannot match.

Every trade is recorded on a public blockchain, making it much harder to conceal manipulation. Uniswap v4 and dYdX have shown that it is possible to build liquid, efficient markets without relying on centralized intermediaries.

Based on a poll that I have done, 74.3% of the respondents think the industry must shift to DEX. I believe more and more people understand the importance of decentralization.

Third, token launches need to be fundamentally reformed. This could include longer vesting periods for insiders, transparent allocation disclosures, and mechanisms to ensure fair price discovery—such as open auctions or liquidity bootstrapping pools. Some projects are experimenting with “fair launches,” where tokens are distributed via community-driven mechanisms rather than private sales. While not a cure-all, these approaches represent a step in the right direction.

My Perspective: Why I Still Believe in Crypto

Despite the current malaise, I remain cautiously optimistic about the future of crypto. The technology that underpins digital assets—blockchain, smart contracts, decentralized finance—still has the potential to revolutionize the global financial system. But for that potential to be realized, the industry must confront its demons.

As an observer and participant in the crypto space, I have seen both the best and worst of what this market has to offer. I have witnessed the excitement of genuine innovation, the thrill of new possibilities, and the power of community-driven projects. But I have also seen the damage wrought by greed, collusion, and a lack of accountability.

The choice facing the industry is stark. It can continue down the current path, sacrificing trust and legitimacy for short-term gains. Or it can embrace reform, transparency, and a renewed commitment to the values that made crypto compelling in the first place.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead

The crisis of trust in the altcoin market is not an abstract problem; it is a clear and present danger to the future of digital assets. Collusion between project teams and market makers, abetted by the opacity of centralized exchanges, has created a market where manipulation is the norm and genuine price discovery is the exception. The result is a loss of confidence, a flight of capital, and a growing sense of disillusionment among investors.

But it does not have to be this way. By demanding greater transparency, embracing decentralization, and supporting thoughtful regulation, the industry can chart a new course. The road ahead will not be easy, and there will be resistance from those who benefit from the status quo. But the alternative—a market defined by manipulation and mistrust—is unacceptable.

I urge industry leaders, regulators, and investors to seize this moment. The future of digital assets depends on our willingness to confront hard truths, to demand better, and to build a market worthy of the ideals that inspired its creation. Only then can we restore trust, unlock innovation, and realize the promise of a truly decentralized financial system.

Source: https://www.securities.io/the-dark-side-of-altcoins-collusion-price-manipulation-and-the-cex-problem/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

April 16th, 2025

Trade War tensions escalate: How China’s jet ban and Bitcoin slips as supply outpaces demand

The global financial markets are navigating a turbulent landscape as of April 16, with risk sentiment taking a noticeable hit due to escalating trade tensions and mixed economic signals. I see a complex interplay of geopolitical manoeuvring, economic data, and market dynamics shaping investor behaviour. My perspective is that while short-term volatility is likely to persist, driven by trade war escalations and policy uncertainties, there are pockets of resilience and opportunity for those who can navigate the noise with discipline and foresight. The current environment underscores the importance of diversification, safe-haven assets, and a keen eye on macroeconomic indicators to weather the storm.

The ongoing tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China continues to dominate headlines and rattle markets. Reports that China has instructed its airlines to halt further deliveries from a major US jet manufacturer signal a deepening of retaliatory measures. This move is not just a symbolic gesture; it directly impacts a key American industry and could disrupt global supply chains in aviation, a sector already strained by post-pandemic recovery challenges.

The decision comes as part of a broader escalation, with China recently raising tariffs by up to 125 per cent on select US products in response to US tariffs announced earlier this month. These developments have contributed to a sharp decline in Wall Street, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropping 4.3 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively, in recent sessions. The MSCI U.S. index, down 1.2 per cent on April 15, reflects this pressure, particularly in sectors such as Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare, both of which shed 0.7 per cent. The trade war’s ripple effects are clear: uncertainty is eroding investor confidence, and companies exposed to international markets are bearing the brunt.

Across the Atlantic, the lack of progress in EU-US trade negotiations adds another layer of complexity. Despite hopes for a thaw in transatlantic relations, the talks have stalled, raising concerns about potential new tariffs or retaliatory measures from the European Union. This stagnation is particularly troubling given the EU’s economic challenges, including sluggish growth in Germany and fiscal pressures in France. The failure to reach a deal could exacerbate global trade fragmentation, forcing companies to rethink supply chains and pricing strategies.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s probe into tariffs on critical minerals introduces further uncertainty. Critical minerals, essential for technologies such as electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy systems, are already subject to supply chain vulnerabilities due to China’s dominance in processing. A US tariff on these materials could drive up costs for domestic manufacturers while potentially failing to reduce reliance on foreign supplies, as seen in past trade policies that misfired, like the copper tariffs criticised by analysts for their unintended economic blowback.

The technology sector, a cornerstone of global markets, is also feeling the heat. Nvidia’s six per cent drop in late trading on April 15, following US export restrictions on its H20 chips to China and Hong Kong, underscores the vulnerability of tech giants to geopolitical risks. These restrictions, imposed indefinitely, are a significant blow to Nvidia, which has relied on the Chinese market for a substantial portion of its revenue.

The broader implications for the semiconductor industry are concerning, as tit-for-tat measures could disrupt innovation and profitability across the sector. Asian equity indices, already under pressure from deteriorating trade relations, opened lower this morning, reflecting the market’s unease with these developments. The tech sector’s woes highlight a broader truth: in a globalised economy, no industry is immune to the fallout of trade wars.

Amid this gloom, there are glimmers of resilience. The US Financials sector, up 0.3 per cent, has held up well, buoyed by strong earnings from major banks as the first-quarter reporting season gains momentum. Positive earnings suggest that banks are navigating higher interest rates and economic uncertainty with relative ease, providing a stabilising force for markets. Across the pond, UK indices have been a bright spot, with the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 gaining 1.4 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively. The prospect of a US-UK trade deal, hinted at in recent discussions, has fueled optimism, as such an agreement could shield the UK from the worst of the global trade storm. However, I remain cautious about over-optimism here; trade deals are notoriously complex, and the UK’s exposure to EU markets means it’s not entirely insulated from broader trade tensions.

The bond market offers another lens into investor sentiment. US Treasuries saw a reprieve on April 15, with the 10-year Treasury yield slipping three basis points to 4.33 per cent after a period of volatility. The two-year yield, however, ticked up slightly to 3.84 per cent, reflecting mixed expectations about Federal Reserve policy. Investors piling into Treasuries as a safe haven have driven yields lower in recent days, a trend that aligns with fears of a trade-war-induced recession. JPMorgan’s recent increase in recession odds to 60 per cent from 40 per cent underscores this concern, as analysts warn that sustained tariffs could tip the U.S. and global economies into contraction. The US Dollar Index’s 0.5 per cent gain, snapping a five-day losing streak, suggests some resilience in the greenback, likely driven by its safe-haven status. Gold, up 0.7 per cent, continues to benefit from this flight to safety, with prices holding near record highs. Brent crude, however, slid to US$61 per barrel, weighed down by the International Energy Agency’s downgraded oil demand forecast and the broader impact of trade tensions on global growth.

China’s economic data provides a counterpoint to the prevailing pessimism. First-quarter GDP growth of 5.4 per cent and stronger-than-expected March activity data beat forecasts, signaling that Beijing’s stimulus measures are gaining traction. Market participants anticipate further policy easing and fiscal expansion to counter the drag from US tariffs, which could stabilize China’s economy in the near term. However, the beat hasn’t translated into broader market optimism, as Asian equities remain under pressure.

This disconnect suggests that trade war fears are overshadowing positive economic signals, a dynamic that could persist unless there’s a de-escalation in US-China relations.

The cryptocurrency market, often seen as a barometer of speculative sentiment, is also grappling with challenges. Bitcoin’s price, at US$67,420 on April 16, is down slightly from US$67,800, with trading volume dropping 10 per cent in the last 24 hours.

Ki Young Ju’s observation that Bitcoin supply is outpacing demand, backed by on-chain data, points to a bearish tilt. The formation of a “death cross” in Bitcoin’s technical indicators—where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average—further signals potential downside. Ethereum, trading at US$1,603, is similarly under pressure, with its RSI at 44.34 and MACD indicating lingering bearish momentum. The broader crypto market’s struggles reflect a flight from riskier assets, exacerbated by the repeal of DeFi regulations, which has paradoxically triggered outflows rather than inflows. The shift of capital to Layer-2 solutions and other blockchains suggests that Ethereum’s dominance in decentralized finance is waning, adding to its price woes.

From my vantage point, the current market environment is a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global economies. Trade wars, once thought to be blunt but manageable tools, are proving to have far-reaching consequences, from aviation to technology to commodities. Investors are right to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries, but they should also remain vigilant for opportunities in resilient sectors such as Financials or regions such as the UK, where trade deal prospects offer a glimmer of hope. The cryptocurrency market’s struggles highlight the broader risk-off sentiment, but disciplined traders could find short-term opportunities in Bitcoin and Ethereum if technical indicators signal a reversal.

Looking ahead, the path forward hinges on policy decisions. A de-escalation in US-China trade tensions or progress in EU-US talks could restore confidence, but the Trump administration’s aggressive stance suggests more volatility lies ahead. The Federal Reserve, caught between inflationary pressures from tariffs and recession risks, faces a delicate balancing act.

My advice to investors is to stay diversified, monitor macroeconomic data like the Empire State Manufacturing Survey—which, despite improvement, still signals contraction—and keep a close eye on earnings reports for clues about corporate resilience. The markets are testing our patience, but with careful navigation, there’s still room to find value amidst the chaos.

Source: https://e27.co/trade-war-tensions-escalate-how-chinas-jet-ban-and-bitcoin-slips-as-supply-outpaces-demand-20250416/