April 8th, 2025

Trump tariffs shake markets: Why gold soars as Bitcoin stumbles in 2025

Today’s market wrap offers a fascinating snapshot of a world grappling with shifting risk sentiments, trade tensions, and the evolving dynamics of traditional and alternative assets. Global risk sentiment has shown signs of improvement, with Asian shares rebounding after what was described as their worst day on record. Japan, in particular, has taken the lead in early trading gains, buoyed by optimism that it might receive preferential treatment in trade negotiations with US President Donald Trump’s administration.

Meanwhile, Trump’s unwavering stance on imposing additional tariffs—despite pleas from trading partners—has kept markets on edge, with the S&P 500 teetering on the brink of a bear market. This backdrop of uncertainty, coupled with fluctuating performances in Hong Kong and China amid threats of a 50 per cent tariff hike, paints a complex picture of global finance.

Add to that China’s central bank stepping in to bolster its sovereign fund for local stock purchases, and we’re witnessing a multifaceted tug-of-war between policy, sentiment, and economic fundamentals.

Let’s look into the specifics. The US markets have been a rollercoaster, with the MSCI US index slipping 0.2 per cent after a volatile session. Within that, the Communication Services sector stood out, climbing 1.0 per cent and offering a glimmer of resilience amid the chaos.

Treasury yields, which had recently pulled back sharply, rebounded with the 10-year yield rising 18.9 basis points to 4.18 per cent and the 2-year yield up 11.1 basis points to 3.76 per cent. This uptick suggests a market recalibrating its expectations, perhaps anticipating inflationary pressures or a shift in Federal Reserve policy signals.

The US Dollar index, meanwhile, edged up 0.2 per cent, stabilising after recent losses, while gold took a hit, dropping 1.8 per cent to hover around US$3,000 per ounce. This decline in gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset, could reflect profit-taking or a reaction to rising yields, which typically make non-yielding assets less attractive.

On the energy front, Brent crude fell 2.1 per cent to below US$65 per barrel, weighed down by tariff-related demand concerns and OPEC+ members increasing output—a double whammy for oil prices.

Across the Pacific, Asian equities have mostly climbed in early trading, with Japan’s optimism setting the tone. This bounce-back follows a brutal sell-off, and it’s encouraging to see markets attempting to find their footing. US equity index futures are also signalling a positive start, with an implied opening gain of 1.6 per cent. This suggests that, despite the tariff threats and economic downturn fears, investors are willing to bet on a recovery—at least for now.

But beneath this surface-level resilience lies a deeper story, particularly when we zoom in on two assets that have captured the world’s attention in recent years: gold and bitcoin. From November 2022 to November 2024, these two moved in a relatively tight correlation, with gold rising 67 per cent and bitcoin soaring nearly 400 per cent.

Analysts had long argued that their shared appeal as hedges against weak global currency policies would keep them aligned. Yet, in 2025, that relationship has begun to unravel, with gold up 16 per cent since late March and bitcoin down more than six per cent. What’s driving this divergence, and what does it mean for investors?

Bitcoin’s journey over the past few years has been nothing short of remarkable. Its meteoric rise—peaking above US$109,000 in January 2025—can be traced to a surge in institutional adoption. Heavyweights like BlackRock, VanEck, and Fidelity have deepened their stakes in the cryptocurrency market, lending it a level of legitimacy that was once unthinkable. Countries like El Salvador have gone further, integrating bitcoin into their financial systems, while the US government has floated plans for a strategic crypto reserve, signalling a potential shift in how nations view digital assets.

New financial products have also fuelled this growth. Take, for instance, CME Group’s Bitcoin Friday futures, which offer contracts as small as 1/50th of a coin, lowering the barrier to entry for retail investors. And just yesterday, Cboe Global Markets announced its new Cboe FTSE Bitcoin Index Futures, set to launch on April 28.

These cash-settled contracts, trading under the XBTF ticker, are designed to give traders more precise control over their bitcoin exposure without needing to hold the asset itself. Paired with Cboe’s recent options tied to bitcoin ETFs, these innovations are broadening the toolkit available to investors, reinforcing bitcoin’s staying power.

But the road hasn’t been smooth. Bitcoin faced significant sell pressure earlier today, dipping to US$74,604 before rebounding to above US$79,000. Even with this recovery, it’s down 3.1 per cent in the past 24 hours and nearly 30 per cent from its January peak. Analysts at IT Tech recently highlighted a spike in the Exchange Inflow Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which tracks the movement of older coins that have been dormant for extended periods.

A surge in CDD often signals that long-term holders are moving their assets to exchanges, potentially to sell. This could reflect profit-taking after bitcoin’s massive run-up or a reaction to broader market uncertainty, including Trump’s tariff threats and fears of an economic slowdown. Whatever the cause, this selling pressure underscores bitcoin’s volatility—a trait that sets it apart from gold, even as both assets vie for the “safe-haven” mantle.

Gold, by contrast, has followed a steadier path in 2025. Its 16 per cent gain since late March reflects a flight to safety amid tariff tensions and rising yields. Unlike bitcoin, gold benefits from its centuries-old reputation as a reliable store of value, especially when economic storm clouds gather. The recent drop to US$3,000 per ounce might suggest some profit-taking, but the broader trend points to sustained demand.

Rising Treasury yields, which typically pressure gold prices, haven’t derailed its upward trajectory, perhaps because investors see tariffs and geopolitical risks as outweighing the yield factor. This resilience highlights a key difference: while bitcoin thrives on institutional momentum and speculative fervour, gold draws strength from its stability and universality.

So, what’s my take on all this? As someone who’s spent years dissecting market trends, I see this divergence as a natural evolution of two assets with overlapping but distinct identities. Bitcoin’s pullback doesn’t diminish its long-term potential; the institutional backing and innovative products like the Cboe FTSE Bitcoin Index Futures suggest it’s here to stay.

But its volatility—exacerbated by tariff fears and profit-taking—reminds us that it’s still a young, dynamic asset prone to sharp swings. Gold, meanwhile, is playing its classic role as a steady hand in turbulent times, bolstered by its tangible nature and historical gravitas. The fraying correlation between the two isn’t a sign of weakness but rather a maturation of the market, where each asset is finding its own lane.

Looking ahead, the global risk sentiment will hinge on how Trump’s tariff policies unfold. Japan’s early gains signal hope for targeted trade deals, but the broader threat of levies on dozens of countries could keep markets jittery. The S&P 500’s flirtation with bear market territory is a red flag, and if economic downturn fears intensify, we could see more wild swings across asset classes. For now, Asian shares are offering a glimmer of optimism, and US futures suggest a willingness to rebound.

But with Brent crude sliding and China’s central bank stepping in, the stakes remain high. My job is to keep digging—tracking the data, questioning the narratives, and piecing together the story as it unfolds. Today’s market wrap is just one chapter in a saga that’s far from over, and I’ll be here, pen in hand, to chronicle what comes next.

Source: https://e27.co/trump-tariffs-shake-markets-why-gold-soars-as-bitcoin-stumbles-in-2025-20250408/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

April 8th, 2025

Analysis: Japan Will Reclassify Crypto as Financial Products—What It Means for Investors

Japan is taking a significant step toward reshaping its approach to cryptocurrency regulation. By 2026, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) plans to reclassify crypto assets as financial products under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. This shift will bring cryptocurrencies under the same regulatory framework as stocks and bonds, subjecting them to insider trading rules and stricter oversight.

The decision reflects Japan’s shifting stance on digital assets. Initially recognized primarily as a payment method, cryptocurrencies have grown into an investment class with increasing market influence. As blockchain technology and cashless transactions gain momentum, integrating crypto into the broader financial system appears to be a logical progression. However, this reclassification also raises questions about market access, investor protection, and the long-term impact on innovation in the sector.

Japan’s Crypto Regulations Have Changed

Japan has a history of regulating cryptocurrencies. In 2016, it recognized Bitcoin as a legal form of payment under the Payment Services Act. However, the regulatory framework treated crypto primarily as a payment method, not an investment vehicle.

Over time, as the market grew, challenges such as fraud, manipulation, and unclear regulations emerged. By the end of 2024, Japan had around 11.8 million crypto accounts, an increase of about three million from the previous year. The country ranked 23rd globally in crypto adoption, alongside South Korea and Hong Kong.

Stronger Rules Aim to Reduce Risks

The FSA’s decision reflects an effort to address market risks. Reclassifying crypto assets as financial products will bring them under stricter regulations, including bans on insider trading. This move follows similar trends in other regions.

In the US, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has pursued legal action against companies for offering tokens it classifies as securities. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework has also introduced comprehensive regulations for digital assets.

Pushing for a Cashless Economy

Japan has been promoting a cashless economy for over a decade. In 2019, cashless transactions accounted for 26.8% of total payments.

By 2023, this figure had risen to 39.3%, amounting to 126.7 trillion yen ($885 billion), according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry. The government aims to increase this to 40% by 2025. Blockchain technology is expected to play a role in achieving this goal.

Potential for ETFs and Lower Taxes

One expected impact of the new regulations is the potential approval of spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These are currently prohibited in Japan. Lawmakers are also discussing reducing the tax on crypto gains from 55% to 20%, aligning it with stock investments.

Currently, crypto profits are taxed as miscellaneous income, resulting in high tax rates. A reduction could attract more investors and increase liquidity in the Japanese market.

Institutional Investment Could Increase

The introduction of crypto ETFs could also encourage institutional investment. In the US, spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in early 2024 saw rapid adoption, accumulating over $10 billion in assets within six months.

If Japan follows a similar path, its market could experience significant growth. The FSA has been holding closed-door discussions with legal and financial experts since October 2024. The agency plans to finalize its policy direction by June 2025, with legislative changes expected in 2026.

Retail Investors May Face Restrictions

The new classification raises concerns about restrictions on retail investors. The FSA has already taken steps to limit access to unregistered foreign exchanges. In 2024, it requested that Apple and Google remove five platforms—Bybit, KuCoin, MEXC Global, LBank, and Bitget—from their app stores in Japan.

While this measure aims to protect investors, it may also reduce choices for those seeking tokens not listed on local exchanges. Some investors could turn to unregulated platforms, increasing exposure to risks.

Aligning with Global Crypto Regulations

The reclassification aligns with Japan’s broader financial and economic policies. In 2022, the FSA introduced regulations for fiat-backed stablecoins.

In April 2024, corporate tax exemptions on unrealized crypto gains were introduced, encouraging corporate involvement in the sector. These developments indicate a structured approach to integrating digital assets into the economy.

Globally, other regions are also tightening crypto regulations. The US, EU, and Singapore have introduced frameworks to manage risks while fostering innovation. Japan’s approach could influence other Asian markets, shaping regional regulatory trends.

Public Reactions Remain Divided

Public reactions to the FSA’s decision are mixed. Some see it as a necessary step toward stability and institutional adoption. Others worry about excessive regulation restricting market growth.

The balance between oversight and innovation will be critical in determining the impact of these changes. Japan’s approach in the coming years will be closely watched as a model for future crypto regulation.

Source: https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/analysis-japan-will-reclassify-crypto-as-financial-products-what-it-means-for-investors/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

April 7th, 2025

US-China trade war escalates: Bitcoin falls below US$78K amid market chaos

The escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, particularly in light of President Donald Trump’s recent tariff policies is giving me chills. The announcement of these sweeping tariffs, dubbed “Liberation Day” by the Trump administration, has sent shockwaves through financial markets, impacting everything from traditional equities to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Today, on April 7, 2025, the world is grappling with the fallout of this bold economic move, and I’d like to offer my perspective on how these developments are reshaping the global financial landscape, with a particular focus on their implications for cryptocurrencies and broader market sentiment.

The latest chapter in this saga began when Trump unveiled a comprehensive tariff strategy on April 2, 2025, imposing a 10 per cent baseline levy on all US imports, with steeper duties targeting specific countries—34 per cent on China and 20 per cent on the European Union, among others. This policy, aimed at addressing trade imbalances and bolstering domestic manufacturing, was met with swift retaliation from Beijing, which announced additional 34 per cent tariffs on all US goods just days later.

The tit-for-tat escalation has heightened fears of a full-blown global trade war, pushing investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like US Treasury bonds and gold, while riskier assets—stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies—have taken a significant hit. The MSCI US index plummeted 6.0 per cent in response, with US equity futures signalling a further 3.3 per cent drop at the open, reflecting the deepening gloom among investors.

For cryptocurrencies, the impact has been particularly pronounced. Bitcoin, the bellwether of the crypto market, has tumbled below US$78,000, trading at US$77,840 as of Sunday—a six per cent decline that mirrors the broader retreat in risk sentiment. This drop comes after a staggering US$247 million in long liquidations rocked the market over a 24-hour period, a clear sign that traders are unwinding their bullish positions amid the uncertainty.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has fared even worse, plunging below US$1,600 and erasing over 14 per cent of its value in the same timeframe, with US$217 million in liquidations adding fuel to the fire. These dramatic sell-offs underscore the vulnerability of digital assets to macroeconomic shocks, particularly when investor confidence in traditional markets begins to waver.

What’s striking about this downturn is how it contrasts with the optimism that surrounded cryptocurrencies earlier this year. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of US$109,000 in January, buoyed by Trump’s election victory in November 2024 and his subsequent pro-crypto rhetoric. During his campaign, Trump pivoted from being a crypto skeptic to a vocal supporter, promising to make the US the “crypto capital of the world” and even floating the idea of a national cryptocurrency stockpile.

That enthusiasm carried over into the early months of his administration, with Bitcoin trading above US$80,000 for much of 2025 despite intermittent volatility. Ethereum, too, enjoyed a robust start to the year, hovering above US$1,800 as recently as last week. But the tariff announcement has flipped the script, exposing the fragility of these gains in the face of broader economic headwinds.

The interplay between Trump’s tariffs and the crypto market is a fascinating case study in how geopolitical and economic policies can ripple through decentralised ecosystems. Historically, Bitcoin has been touted as a hedge against inflation and economic instability—qualities that should, in theory, make it resilient during times like these.

Indeed, some analysts argue that tariffs could ultimately bolster Bitcoin’s long-term appeal by weakening the US dollar’s dominance and driving interest in alternative assets. Jeff Park from Bitwise Asset Management, for instance, suggested that a sustained tariff war could be “amazing for Bitcoin in the long run” due to its potential to undermine traditional currencies. Yet, in the short term, the data tells a different story: Bitcoin and Ethereum are moving in lockstep with risk assets like tech stocks, not as a counterweight to them.

This correlation is evident in the broader market dynamics. The Nasdaq Composite, a tech-heavy index, is careening toward a bear market, while the S&P 500 has shed 4.8 per cent in a single day—its worst drop since June 2020. Defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Real Estate, while still down, have outperformed the broader market, signalling a flight to safety that hasn’t yet extended to cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, commodities like Brent crude have slumped toward US$65 per barrel, reflecting fears that tariffs will dampen global demand growth just as OPEC+ ramps up supply. The US Dollar Index has edged up 0.9 per cent, consolidating recent losses, but Treasury yields are pulling back—the 10-year at 3.99 per cent and the 2-year at 3.65 per cent—as recession odds climb. Gold, typically a rival safe haven to Bitcoin, has held firm above US$3,000 per ounce despite a 2.5 per cent dip, underscoring its enduring appeal in times of crisis.

Digging deeper into the crypto sell-off, the liquidation cascade offers a window into the mechanics of this downturn. For Ethereum, a single whale’s US$106 million loss—triggered by the sale of 67,570 ETH on Maker—appears to have sparked a chain reaction, dragging prices from above US$1,800 to US$1,500 in a matter of hours. Another investor’s sale of 14,014 ETH, valued at $22 million, further amplified the panic, pushing Ethereum to levels not seen since October 2023.

These events highlight the leveraged nature of the crypto market, where large positions can magnify price swings, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty. Bitcoin, while less severely impacted, still saw its own wave of liquidations, with US$247 million wiped out as traders rushed to exit long positions.

In my humble point of view, the tariffs are acting as a double-edged sword for cryptocurrencies. On one hand, they’re stoking fears of slower growth and higher inflation—conditions that could, over time, drive adoption of decentralised assets as a hedge against traditional systems.

Trump’s own pro-crypto stance, including his March announcement of a strategic reserve featuring Bitcoin and Ethereum, lends credence to this narrative. Yet, in the immediate term, the market is behaving more like a risk proxy than a safe haven. The Fear & Greed Index, a barometer of crypto sentiment, remains mired in “fear” territory, a stark contrast to the exuberance of earlier this year.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of this trade war will be critical. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signalled that the central bank won’t rush to cut rates in response to the tariffs, despite their potential to slow US growth and stoke inflation. This stance could exacerbate the pressure on risk assets if inflationary pressures persist without monetary relief.

For Bitcoin and Ethereum, a prolonged period of market turmoil could test key support levels—US$75,000 for Bitcoin and US$1,400 for Ethereum—before any recovery takes hold. Yet, if the tariffs weaken confidence in fiat currencies or trigger a broader shift away from dollar-centric systems, as some experts predict, cryptocurrencies could emerge stronger on the other side.

As I reflect on these developments, I’m struck by the paradox at play. Trump’s tariffs, intended to strengthen the US economy, are instead unleashing chaos across global markets, including the very crypto ecosystem he’s championed. For investors, the challenge lies in navigating this volatility—balancing the short-term pain of sell-offs against the long-term promise of digital assets. From where I stand, the story is far from over.

The coming weeks will reveal whether this is a temporary blip or the start of a deeper reckoning for cryptocurrencies and the global economy alike. One thing is certain: in this interconnected world, no market is an island, and the reverberations of “Liberation Day” will be felt for months, if not years, to come.

Source: https://e27.co/us-china-trade-war-escalates-bitcoin-falls-below-us78k-amid-market-chaos-20250407/